I think it is sometimes justifiable to knock players as compilers, but Thome's OBP, SLG, OPS, WAR, RC, etc. show he isn't just compiling.
He stands a good chance of slugging over .500 for the 16th time in 18 seasons this year, with the only two exceptions being when he played only 59 games at age 34 due to injury and when he was very close (.493) with the White Sox before being traded midseason to the Dodgers at age 38. I think people carry the anti-compiler bias too far sometimes and fail to recognize the value of plugging a guy who always slugs .500 and always has a high OBP into the lineup almost every day for 18 years. If that's compiling, there are a lot of teams who could use some compilers in their lineups.
I think the emphasis on advanced metrics over the past decade, which shows no sign of slowing, will help Thome, due to the metrics I mentioned earlier. The voters will be aware of them and will be even more accepting of them by the time Thome becomes eligible.
IMO playing in the steroid era will help, assuming nothing comes out about him having done them.
I also think he is likable and viewed as a good interview, a good teammate, and a guy who played the game the right way.
Add it all up, and IMO he is a lock, and deservedly so.