Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link: Jimmy Graham Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[nickdib]

Jimmy Graham is too much of a beast to see a drop in production. Unless the saints completely fall apart, I expect 90 receptions for 1400 yards and 13 touchdowns

 

[Jason Wood]

Jimmy Graham is too much of a beast to see a drop in production. Unless the saints completely fall apart, I expect 90 receptions for 1400 yards and 13 touchdowns

It's not necessarily about talent. Even elite players rarely put up back-to-back seasons like the one Graham just delivered.Graham and Gronkowski were only the 2nd and 3rd TEs in league history to deliver a 90/1200/10+ season (Todd Christensen did it once in 1983), so you're talking about all-time numbers. In league history, 90/1200/10 has only happened 48 times among WRs AND TEs. Is it possible for Graham to deliver a season close to what he did in 2011? Of course, but expecting it (or an improvement as you project) would be a recipe for disappointment.

 

[ninerfanatic492000]

if Brees was with the team all offseason and working with Graham i would have expected even better #'s from Graham. as of now maybe we can maybe expect something close to last year. Jimmy is still like the rawest of raw talents out there. If Brees would or could've put in a full offseason and working especially with Graham i think we could have seen a 1500yard season from Jimmy

 

[otis68]

What is crazy is that Graham is entering his 4th year of football.

Miami 09 17-213-5

Saints 10 31-356-5

Saints 11 99-1300-11

He's still figuring this out. His coaches love him. Brees loves him. He's effectively his teams goal line back. His floor is 90-1000-10. His ceiling is just short of Calvin Johnson.

 

[mphtrilogy]

I like him for 1050 yards 10 tds and 85 catches.

 

[meyerj31]

There's not a safer bet in fantasy football for a minimum of 1,000 yards and 8 TDS, besides Calvin.

Graham isn't going to repeat his 2011 numbers every year, and might only do it again once... who knows? But his floor is so high for the next 5 years (or as long as Brees plays) that I'll spend a top pick on him in Dynasty. I prefer Graham over Gronk, but both have bright futures.

 

[meatwad1]

Jimmy Graham is too much of a beast to see a drop in production. Unless the saints completely fall apart, I expect 90 receptions for 1400 yards and 13 touchdowns

It's not necessarily about talent. Even elite players rarely put up back-to-back seasons like the one Graham just delivered.Graham and Gronkowski were only the 2nd and 3rd TEs in league history to deliver a 90/1200/10+ season (Todd Christensen did it once in 1983), so you're talking about all-time numbers. In league history, 90/1200/10 has only happened 48 times among WRs AND TEs. Is it possible for Graham to deliver a season close to what he did in 2011? Of course, but expecting it (or an improvement as you project) would be a recipe for disappointment.

I think a lot of these numbers are inflated by rules protecting qbs and wrs. Across the board, we saw record passing numbers for many players last year, I think this only increases the value of players such as Jimmy G, as it will be pretty much be illegal to hit a qb in the next few years.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I can't project the Saints for 5000 passing yards, so you've got to reign yourself in a little bit with Graham. An injury to Brees, regression to the mean, an improved defense, a better running game, an injury to Graham and countless other events could curtail Graham's numbers.

That said, the upside is still enormous with Graham. I think 1100 yards and 8 TDs is a reasonable, if not conservative estimate. More importantly, I think he's worthy of a late second round pick.

 

[Hoosier16]

regression to the mean,

The problem with this is the same as always. We don't really know what the mean is for Graham. Should we regress him to the mean of an average "good" TE? That doesn't make any sense. Until he's had a few full years, this doesn't really mean much.In addition, I think a lot of people are having trouble projecting teams for 5000 passing yards in these threads. As pointed out by meatwad below, this may be the new norm. We can no longer assume that 5000 is a once in a career type number.

 

[cstu]

regression to the mean,

The problem with this is the same as always. We don't really know what the mean is for Graham. Should we regress him to the mean of an average "good" TE? That doesn't make any sense. Until he's had a few full years, this doesn't really mean much.In addition, I think a lot of people are having trouble projecting teams for 5000 passing yards in these threads. As pointed out by meatwad below, this may be the new norm. We can no longer assume that 5000 is a once in a career type number.

Here are the TE's who scored over 200 PPR FP the past four years:2011 - Gronkowski (330), Graham (296), Hernandez (216), Gonzalez (209), Witten (203)2010 - Witten (250)2009 - Clark (271), V. Davis (252), Gates (242), Celek (221), Witten (209), Gonzalez (205)2008 - Gonzalez (261), Witten (202)2007 - Witten (252), Gonzalez (246), Gates (227), Winslow (224)2006 - Gates (217)It looks to me like Gronk and Graham were outliers and I expect them to come back down to the 250-270 range. I would be too surprised if either/both of them cleared that mark but the numbers suggest that they should score lower this year.

 

[Hoosier16]

regression to the mean,

The problem with this is the same as always. We don't really know what the mean is for Graham. Should we regress him to the mean of an average "good" TE? That doesn't make any sense. Until he's had a few full years, this doesn't really mean much.In addition, I think a lot of people are having trouble projecting teams for 5000 passing yards in these threads. As pointed out by meatwad below, this may be the new norm. We can no longer assume that 5000 is a once in a career type number.

Here are the TE's who scored over 200 PPR FP the past four years:2011 - Gronkowski (330), Graham (296), Hernandez (216), Gonzalez (209), Witten (203)2010 - Witten (250)2009 - Clark (271), V. Davis (252), Gates (242), Celek (221), Witten (209), Gonzalez (205)2008 - Gonzalez (261), Witten (202)2007 - Witten (252), Gonzalez (246), Gates (227), Winslow (224)2006 - Gates (217)It looks to me like Gronk and Graham were outliers and I expect them to come back down to the 250-270 range. I would be too surprised if either/both of them cleared that mark but the numbers suggest that they should score lower this year.

Here are QBs who passed for more than 5000 yards the last 28 seasons:2011 - Brees (5476), Brady (5235), Stafford (50382010 -2009 - 2008 - Brees (5069)2007 -2006 -...1984 - Marino (5084)The NFL has changed.

 

[BuckeyeChaos]

Am I the only one who is very worried about the state of the Saints? Brees not signed and not working with his receivers. New coaches "trying" to keep status quo. Defense in shambles. etc.. I just feel like this is going to be a train wreck.

 

[cstu]

regression to the mean,

The problem with this is the same as always. We don't really know what the mean is for Graham. Should we regress him to the mean of an average "good" TE? That doesn't make any sense. Until he's had a few full years, this doesn't really mean much.In addition, I think a lot of people are having trouble projecting teams for 5000 passing yards in these threads. As pointed out by meatwad below, this may be the new norm. We can no longer assume that 5000 is a once in a career type number.

Here are the TE's who scored over 200 PPR FP the past four years:2011 - Gronkowski (330), Graham (296), Hernandez (216), Gonzalez (209), Witten (203)2010 - Witten (250)2009 - Clark (271), V. Davis (252), Gates (242), Celek (221), Witten (209), Gonzalez (205)2008 - Gonzalez (261), Witten (202)2007 - Witten (252), Gonzalez (246), Gates (227), Winslow (224)2006 - Gates (217)It looks to me like Gronk and Graham were outliers and I expect them to come back down to the 250-270 range. I would be too surprised if either/both of them cleared that mark but the numbers suggest that they should score lower this year.

Here are QBs who passed for more than 5000 yards the last 28 seasons:2011 - Brees (5476), Brady (5235), Stafford (50382010 -2009 - 2008 - Brees (5069)2007 -2006 -1984 - Marino (5084)The NFL has changed.

There's no question that there's more passing today and I expect more 5000 yard seasons, but Brees and Brady's look like anomalies rather than the norm. In fact, I would put money on there not being a QB with over 5200 yards this season.

 

[Hoosier16]

regression to the mean,

The problem with this is the same as always. We don't really know what the mean is for Graham. Should we regress him to the mean of an average "good" TE? That doesn't make any sense. Until he's had a few full years, this doesn't really mean much.In addition, I think a lot of people are having trouble projecting teams for 5000 passing yards in these threads. As pointed out by meatwad below, this may be the new norm. We can no longer assume that 5000 is a once in a career type number.

Here are the TE's who scored over 200 PPR FP the past four years:2011 - Gronkowski (330), Graham (296), Hernandez (216), Gonzalez (209), Witten (203)2010 - Witten (250)2009 - Clark (271), V. Davis (252), Gates (242), Celek (221), Witten (209), Gonzalez (205)2008 - Gonzalez (261), Witten (202)2007 - Witten (252), Gonzalez (246), Gates (227), Winslow (224)2006 - Gates (217)It looks to me like Gronk and Graham were outliers and I expect them to come back down to the 250-270 range. I would be too surprised if either/both of them cleared that mark but the numbers suggest that they should score lower this year.

Here are QBs who passed for more than 5000 yards the last 28 seasons:2011 - Brees (5476), Brady (5235), Stafford (50382010 -2009 - 2008 - Brees (5069)2007 -2006 -1984 - Marino (5084)The NFL has changed.

There's no question that there's more passing today and I expect more 5000 yard seasons, but Brees and Brady's look like anomalies rather than the norm. In fact, I would put money on there not being a QB with over 5200 yards this season.

And I'd bet that they'll be over 4800. Whether it's 4800 or 5200, it doesn't matter. Anywhere near those numbers means there will be receivers putting up huge numbers as well, which will again look like anomalies.

 

[TheJewru]

There's not a safer bet in fantasy football for a minimum of 1,000 yards and 8 TDS, besides Calvin.Graham isn't going to repeat his 2011 numbers every year, and might only do it again once... who knows? But his floor is so high for the next 5 years (or as long as Brees plays) that I'll spend a top pick on him in Dynasty. I prefer Graham over Gronk, but both have bright futures.

THIS!!!!!!!Graham is the top receiving option for Drew Brees on a team whose defense just got more suspect than it already was. Health permitting I can't see Graham not be in the top 10 in receptions, yards and TD's for all Wideouts and TE's. The dome games sure don't hurt as well. 102 for 1280 and 10 TD's

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Late second round for Jimmy Graham? Go ahead be my guest. He’s certainly in the discussion of being in the top 2 TE’s in all of football. But I also agree with the concept of regression to the mean. Not to say there won’t be 4 QB’s that throw for 5,000 yards next year, but I think that’s doubtful too. The hard part is predicting a continuity that doesn’t exist and really hasn’t existed since Todd Christensen back in 1983 as Wood mentioned.

I’ll gladly take either Graham or Gradkowski with my third round pick, but I think it’s risky to think either of them can duplicate their 2011 numbers. History, injuries, game-plans both offensive and defensive, all are factors that can derail these players high ceilings. Both are likely going to be taken before my pick in the third round, but I’m not willing to miss out on my RB1/WR2 or possibly QB1 in the 2nd round. Good tight end value is available up and down the board, so I’ll wait if either doesn’t fall.

Back to Graham specifically. His situation is relatively unchanged as a primary target of a prolific QB in Drew Brees. Colston is also back in the fold with a rich new contract. They lost their all-pro guard Carl Nicks, so the OL is a concern. Still, there is no reason to doubt he could duplicate his numbers. I believe he will have a great year, but I won’t be burning a high pick betting on it.

90/1200/10

 

[fightingillini]

There is no reason why Graham won't have another great season. He's a matchup nightmare on a team that likes to throw the ball...a lot. How not having Payton for a season will be a slight risk, but Graham should be a solid 2nd round pick in TE required leagues.

82 rec, 1100 yds, 10 TD

 

[King of the Jungle]

Does he drop any for PPR leagues that do not require a TE? I still think he is a safe bet for top 8 for WR/TEs.

 

[fightingillini]

I can't project the Saints for 5000 passing yards, so you've got to reign yourself in a little bit with Graham. An injury to Brees, regression to the mean, an improved defense, a better running game, an injury to Graham and countless other events could curtail Graham's numbers.That said, the upside is still enormous with Graham. I think 1100 yards and 8 TDs is a reasonable, if not conservative estimate. More importantly, I think he's worthy of a late second round pick.

You can argue your first paragraph to almost any player, as injuries can derail anyone's season, as well as how games progress. But Graham can easily have 1100+ yards without Brees going for 5000. He has Colston and Sproles to share the ball with. Meacham left, and Henderson isn't a real threat to take serious touches away. Graham and Colston can get 1100 each while Sproles gets 600-700 yards, which is about 2800-2900....that leaves 1600-1700 yards to the WR2-3, Thomas/Ingram, and backup TE.....that seems very reasonable with a 4500 yard projection.We regress to what mean? IMO, Graham is more talented than the average TE that would start on fantasy teams. I think he's just as talented as Gates was in his prime. So IMO his baseline is probably Gates' career stats, which is about what I project for him.That said, I agree 100% he's worth a 2nd round pick, and I would be thrilled to get him in the late 2nd to pair up with an elite RB.

 

[rizzler]

I consider myself to be a "wild side" type drafter. Against the grain type guy, who finds himself reaching to ensure I have a team of players I want and not a team of guys i settled on

That being said, I have been tossing around the idea to myself of going Brees/Graham 1-2, If I have a pick around 8-12.

Im not against taking a QB like Brees first round, though I havent 1st rnd'd a QB since Manning many yrs back. i have NEVER taken a TE in the 2nd round... dont think ive taken one before the 5th to be honest...

Again, I like to be against the grain and have had very good success with it. Something about having Brees and Graham just sounds beyond sexy to me and a huge advantage week in an week out... As I myself project Graham not to regress, and Brees to remain Brees, or moreso with the recent personnel losses.

Someone? Anyone? Is this TOO against the grain? Thoughts? Praise? Slaps?

 

[Sir Psycho]

I consider myself to be a "wild side" type drafter. Against the grain type guy, who finds himself reaching to ensure I have a team of players I want and not a team of guys i settled on

That being said, I have been tossing around the idea to myself of going Brees/Graham 1-2, If I have a pick around 8-12.

Im not against taking a QB like Brees first round, though I havent 1st rnd'd a QB since Manning many yrs back. i have NEVER taken a TE in the 2nd round... dont think ive taken one before the 5th to be honest...

Again, I like to be against the grain and have had very good success with it. Something about having Brees and Graham just sounds beyond sexy to me and a huge advantage week in an week out... As I myself project Graham not to regress, and Brees to remain Brees, or moreso with the recent personnel losses.

Someone? Anyone? Is this TOO against the grain? Thoughts? Praise? Slaps?

I did that yesterday and this league is a QB league wich give 1pt/pass -->10yard and 6pt--->1tdSo Here's my starting lineup

QB:Brees

RB: Lynch - Charles

WR: Harvin - D Moore - N Washington/Rice

TE: Graham

DEF:Bal

BTW: Its a PPR league but 0.5pt for RB, 0.75pt for WR and 1pt for TE

 

[Sweet Love]

regression to the mean,

The problem with this is the same as always. We don't really know what the mean is for Graham. Should we regress him to the mean of an average "good" TE? That doesn't make any sense. Until he's had a few full years, this doesn't really mean much.In addition, I think a lot of people are having trouble projecting teams for 5000 passing yards in these threads. As pointed out by meatwad below, this may be the new norm. We can no longer assume that 5000 is a once in a career type number.

Here are the TE's who scored over 200 PPR FP the past four years:2011 - Gronkowski (330), Graham (296), Hernandez (216), Gonzalez (209), Witten (203)2010 - Witten (250)2009 - Clark (271), V. Davis (252), Gates (242), Celek (221), Witten (209), Gonzalez (205)2008 - Gonzalez (261), Witten (202)2007 - Witten (252), Gonzalez (246), Gates (227), Winslow (224)2006 - Gates (217)It looks to me like Gronk and Graham were outliers and I expect them to come back down to the 250-270 range. I would be too surprised if either/both of them cleared that mark but the numbers suggest that they should score lower this year.

Here are QBs who passed for more than 5000 yards the last 28 seasons:2011 - Brees (5476), Brady (5235), Stafford (50382010 -2009 - 2008 - Brees (5069)2007 -2006 -...1984 - Marino (5084)The NFL has changed.

In 1995, NINE players caught over 100 balls. In 1996, there were three. Since then, the best ever was six (twice) and last year, we hit a whopping two. You just witnessed a "hiccup" year in passing yards, like we saw in receiving in '95. Plan accordingly...

 

[butcher boy]

I’ll gladly take either Graham or Gradkowski with my third round pick, but I think it’s risky to think either of them can duplicate their 2011 numbers.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you'll be much better off going with Graham over Gradkowski in the third.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

regression to the mean,

The problem with this is the same as always. We don't really know what the mean is for Graham. Should we regress him to the mean of an average "good" TE? That doesn't make any sense. Until he's had a few full years, this doesn't really mean much.In addition, I think a lot of people are having trouble projecting teams for 5000 passing yards in these threads. As pointed out by meatwad below, this may be the new norm. We can no longer assume that 5000 is a once in a career type number.

Here are the TE's who scored over 200 PPR FP the past four years:2011 - Gronkowski (330), Graham (296), Hernandez (216), Gonzalez (209), Witten (203)2010 - Witten (250)2009 - Clark (271), V. Davis (252), Gates (242), Celek (221), Witten (209), Gonzalez (205)2008 - Gonzalez (261), Witten (202)2007 - Witten (252), Gonzalez (246), Gates (227), Winslow (224)2006 - Gates (217)It looks to me like Gronk and Graham were outliers and I expect them to come back down to the 250-270 range. I would be too surprised if either/both of them cleared that mark but the numbers suggest that they should score lower this year.

Here are QBs who passed for more than 5000 yards the last 28 seasons:2011 - Brees (5476), Brady (5235), Stafford (50382010 -2009 - 2008 - Brees (5069)2007 -2006 -...1984 - Marino (5084)The NFL has changed.

In 1995, NINE players caught over 100 balls. In 1996, there were three. Since then, the best ever was six (twice) and last year, we hit a whopping two. You just witnessed a "hiccup" year in passing yards, like we saw in receiving in '95. Plan accordingly...

Unfortunately the number of wrs to go over 100 catches in 1995 has nothing to do with the amount of passing yards accumulated in the 2012/2013 seasons

 

[Hoosier16]

regression to the mean,

The problem with this is the same as always. We don't really know what the mean is for Graham. Should we regress him to the mean of an average "good" TE? That doesn't make any sense. Until he's had a few full years, this doesn't really mean much.In addition, I think a lot of people are having trouble projecting teams for 5000 passing yards in these threads. As pointed out by meatwad below, this may be the new norm. We can no longer assume that 5000 is a once in a career type number.

Here are the TE's who scored over 200 PPR FP the past four years:2011 - Gronkowski (330), Graham (296), Hernandez (216), Gonzalez (209), Witten (203)2010 - Witten (250)2009 - Clark (271), V. Davis (252), Gates (242), Celek (221), Witten (209), Gonzalez (205)2008 - Gonzalez (261), Witten (202)2007 - Witten (252), Gonzalez (246), Gates (227), Winslow (224)2006 - Gates (217)It looks to me like Gronk and Graham were outliers and I expect them to come back down to the 250-270 range. I would be too surprised if either/both of them cleared that mark but the numbers suggest that they should score lower this year.

Here are QBs who passed for more than 5000 yards the last 28 seasons:2011 - Brees (5476), Brady (5235), Stafford (50382010 -2009 - 2008 - Brees (5069)2007 -2006 -...1984 - Marino (5084)The NFL has changed.

In 1995, NINE players caught over 100 balls. In 1996, there were three. Since then, the best ever was six (twice) and last year, we hit a whopping two. You just witnessed a "hiccup" year in passing yards, like we saw in receiving in '95. Plan accordingly...

I was going to do this, but someone did it for me. Plan accordingly:

2011: 117,601 passing yards2010: 113,450 2009: 111,8512008: 108,1772007: 109,722There is a definite upward trend of about 3-4% per year since 2008. I see no reason why the numbers will not continue this trend or at least stabilize at the current high number due to the current state of QB favorable rules on the field. Therefore, you can resonably conclude that there will be multiple QBs who exceed or at least come very close to 5,000 yards.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I don't see how Graham gets past the top 15-20 picks in any league requiring a TE, especially PPR. Adding Graham's two playoff games he finished 2011 with:

18 games

111 receptions

1468 yards

14 TD

That's a season that Calvin Johnson and the old Randy Moss would be proud to have. He was as consistent as anyone, posting at least 75 yards and/or a TD in 16 of 18 games. Hard to predict another season like 2011 but even with a 5-10% drop in every category he is still worth a top 20 pick.

90 receptions

1200 yards

10 TD

 

[Anthony Borbely]

In general, I tend to side with regressing to the mean, but there are exceptions based in the player's circumstances. I'm not sure Graham will regress because he is still learning how to play the game. He has only played 2 years and was very raw when he entered the NFL. It's downright scary when you realize Graham is not even close to his peak. I also don't think you can compare his numbers to the past numbers of other TEs because he is more of a hybrid WR/TE combination. He is basically indefensible right now and until I see evidence that defenses can defend him, I can't believe his numbers will decline.

I would not be surprised at all to see Graham come very close to last year's numbers.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I'm torn. I had him last year (humblebrag) and as you can expect thoroughly enjoyed the experience.

I usually subscribe to Scott Pianowski's theory of "Don't pay the freight on a career year". If you follow that year in and year out I think you will be successful in the long run.

On the other hand, Graham may just be a transcendent talent and is still raw. What will the lack of Sean Payton do to this team? I'm not sure. Does Brees become a Manning like de facto offensive coordinator? Wouldn't surprise me.

I tend to be a bit of a cautious drafter, looking for value as a rule over reaching out on guys, so I'm guessing someone grabs him and Gronk before I'm ready to take them.

 

[Instinctive]

In general, I tend to side with regressing to the mean, but there are exceptions based in the player's circumstances. I'm not sure Graham will regress because he is still learning how to play the game. He has only played 2 years and was very raw when he entered the NFL. It's downright scary when you realize Graham is not even close to his peak. I also don't think you can compare his numbers to the past numbers of other TEs because he is more of a hybrid WR/TE combination. He is basically indefensible right now and until I see evidence that defenses can defend him, I can't believe his numbers will decline. I would not be surprised at all to see Graham come very close to last year's numbers.

HE CAN'T REGRESS TO THE MEAN. HE HAS NO ESTABLISHED MEAN. PEOPLE ARE MISAPPLYING THE CONCEPT. It is something that applies to a singular player, e.g. Peyton Manning after 2004, when he regressed back toward the mean of typical Peyton Manning performance.ETA: Hopefully that wasn't too harsh.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

In general, I tend to side with regressing to the mean, but there are exceptions based in the player's circumstances. I'm not sure Graham will regress because he is still learning how to play the game. He has only played 2 years and was very raw when he entered the NFL. It's downright scary when you realize Graham is not even close to his peak. I also don't think you can compare his numbers to the past numbers of other TEs because he is more of a hybrid WR/TE combination. He is basically indefensible right now and until I see evidence that defenses can defend him, I can't believe his numbers will decline. I would not be surprised at all to see Graham come very close to last year's numbers.

HE CAN'T REGRESS TO THE MEAN. HE HAS NO ESTABLISHED MEAN. PEOPLE ARE MISAPPLYING THE CONCEPT. It is something that applies to a singular player, e.g. Peyton Manning after 2004, when he regressed back toward the mean of typical Peyton Manning performance.ETA: Hopefully that wasn't too harsh.

My point was that people expect him to regress to the mean of what elite TEs normally do or what people expect Graham to do. I agree that Graham himself has no verifiable mean at this point. However, if I had to try to predict his mean, I think last year's numbers are reasonably close because of everything I stated above.By the way, that wasn't too harsh. I like your enthusiasm.

 

[sbonomo]

I rode this guy to a championship last year so i am baised.......he is a unique talent in a very talented offense. Given his size, speed, hands and general intangibles.... 85/1050/8 with upside. Easy second round pick with upside.....

 

[TheWick]

He seems a pretty darn safe bet to be in the top 2 at his position and give you a advantage over your opponent week in and week out. I have no problem taking him at the end of round 1.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

In general, I tend to side with regressing to the mean, but there are exceptions based in the player's circumstances. I'm not sure Graham will regress because he is still learning how to play the game. He has only played 2 years and was very raw when he entered the NFL. It's downright scary when you realize Graham is not even close to his peak. I also don't think you can compare his numbers to the past numbers of other TEs because he is more of a hybrid WR/TE combination. He is basically indefensible right now and until I see evidence that defenses can defend him, I can't believe his numbers will decline. I would not be surprised at all to see Graham come very close to last year's numbers.

HE CAN'T REGRESS TO THE MEAN. HE HAS NO ESTABLISHED MEAN. PEOPLE ARE MISAPPLYING THE CONCEPT. It is something that applies to a singular player, e.g. Peyton Manning after 2004, when he regressed back toward the mean of typical Peyton Manning performance.ETA: Hopefully that wasn't too harsh.

Your post is a great example of someone who thinks mechanically, rather than conceptually. Thank you for providing a good "bad" example to the rest of the SP.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Your post is a great example of someone who thinks mechanically, rather than conceptually. Thank you for providing a good "bad" example to the rest of the SP.

No, his post was right on target. We don't know what an average year is like for Graham because the sample size is too small. 2011 could turn out to be "average" for him if they continue to use him like a WR.

 

[Instinctive]

Your post is a great example of someone who thinks mechanically, rather than conceptually. Thank you for providing a good "bad" example to the rest of the SP.

No, his post was right on target. We don't know what an average year is like for Graham because the sample size is too small. 2011 could turn out to be "average" for him if they continue to use him like a WR.

Keaton misses the point. I'm not weighing in on Graham, just correcting the misuse of a valid statistical phenomenon. I'm of the opinion that Graham's got a pretty darn high floor, but don;t have time to detail it right now. Perhaps tomorrow I will weigh in with my analysis.

 

[drater]

Using historical TE production as an argument against him repeating or surpassing last years production is a straw man. A joker or move TE in that offense with that qb and that skillset/athleticism is a different breed. Use WR comps if you have to use past data as a baseline for future performance. Or watch him play and realize it's a perfect storm of talent meeting opportunity.

No Meachem should equate to deeper depth of targets as well.

90-1400-14, #1 TE

 

[griff321]

Using historical TE production as an argument against him repeating or surpassing last years production is a straw man. A joker or move TE in that offense with that qb and that skillset/athleticism is a different breed. Use WR comps if you have to use past data as a baseline for future performance. Or watch him play and realize it's a perfect storm of talent meeting opportunity.No Meachem should equate to deeper depth of targets as well.90-1400-14, #1 TE

If Jimmy Graham was listed as a WR, he pretty much is, would we even be having this regression to typical elite TE numbers discussion? I just sold the house to acquire him, Wallace and a future first and second,(LOOK AT ME!) and I have little doubt that he's well on his way to a Megatron like career.

 

[jurb26]

Can anyone offer some insite as to why Graham was able to post 100+ yds in 4 of the 1st 6 games and never again posted 100+ yds for the rest of the season?

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

He did have 5-103-2 TD vs the elite SF D in the playoffs.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I’ll gladly take either Graham or Gradkowski with my third round pick, but I think it’s risky to think either of them can duplicate their 2011 numbers.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you'll be much better off going with Graham over Gradkowski in the third.

yeah, GL with that draft.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I can't project the Saints for 5000 passing yards, so you've got to reign yourself in a little bit with Graham. An injury to Brees, regression to the mean, an improved defense, a better running game, an injury to Graham and countless other events could curtail Graham's numbers.That said, the upside is still enormous with Graham. I think 1100 yards and 8 TDs is a reasonable, if not conservative estimate. More importantly, I think he's worthy of a late second round pick.

an 1100/8 te is a second rounder?or are you pegging him there strictly on upside?I think a lot of people are just afraid to post up projections that differ much from the 'norm'.is 1100/8 what you really feel graham is most likely to get, or what you feel a typical 'good' te is likely to get?personally, I'd take the over on your 8 td estimate.

 

[TheWick]

Can anyone offer some insite as to why Graham was able to post 100+ yds in 4 of the 1st 6 games and never again posted 100+ yds for the rest of the season?

Why is 100 a significant number?I mean I understand your point but we all watched the games...he dominated all season

 

[jurb26]

Can anyone offer some insite as to why Graham was able to post 100+ yds in 4 of the 1st 6 games and never again posted 100+ yds for the rest of the season?

Why is 100 a significant number?I mean I understand your point but we all watched the games...he dominated all season

The point is that his average yds per game for the 1st 6 weeks was 103. Over the final 10 games is dropped to 69. That's pretty dramatic, no? It's been long said that yds, not TDs, are the more reliable measure because TDs can be far more erratic. While I would agree that 70 yds per game for a TE is good, I wouldn't say that is dominant. Many times people feel 2nd half splits can be an indication of things to come in the following year. I'm curious to know why his yardage declined so much. Was it a function of defensive attention? Just Brees spreading it around more? I'm not trying to derail what seems to be an otherwise Graham love-fest. I just noticed this trend in the numbers and thought it was worth exploring.

 

[TheWick]

Can anyone offer some insite as to why Graham was able to post 100+ yds in 4 of the 1st 6 games and never again posted 100+ yds for the rest of the season?

Why is 100 a significant number?I mean I understand your point but we all watched the games...he dominated all season

The point is that his average yds per game for the 1st 6 weeks was 103. Over the final 10 games is dropped to 69. That's pretty dramatic, no? It's been long said that yds, not TDs, are the more reliable measure because TDs can be far more erratic. While I would agree that 70 yds per game for a TE is good, I wouldn't say that is dominant. Many times people feel 2nd half splits can be an indication of things to come in the following year. I'm curious to know why his yardage declined so much. Was it a function of defensive attention? Just Brees spreading it around more? I'm not trying to derail what seems to be an otherwise Graham love-fest. I just noticed this trend in the numbers and thought it was worth exploring.

1 NO GB 7 4 56 1 11.6 [play-by-play]2 NO CHI 7 6 79 0 7.9 [play-by-play]3 NO HOU 8 4 100 1 16.0 [play-by-play]4 NO JAX 14 10 132 1 19.2 [play-by-play]5 NO CAR 12 8 129 0 12.9 [play-by-play]6 NO TB 11 7 124 0 12.4 [play-by-play]7 NO IND 7 6 54 2 17.4 [play-by-play]8 NO STL 8 4 39 0 3.9 [play-by-play]9 NO TB 8 6 78 0 7.8 [play-by-play]10 NO ATL 12 7 82 1 14.2 [play-by-play]12 NO NYG 8 5 84 2 20.4 [play-by-play]13 NO DET 9 8 89 0 8.9 [play-by-play]14 NO TEN 9 5 55 0 5.5 [play-by-play]15 NO MIN 10 7 70 1 13.0 [play-by-play]16 NO ATL 9 4 42 1 10.2 [play-by-play]17 NO CAR 9 8 97 1 15.7 [play-by-play]18 NO DET 11 7 55 1 11.5 [play-by-play]19 NO SF 8 5 103 2 22.3 [play-by-play]TOT 148 99 1310 11 197 Pretty darn consistant....the 39 yard Rams game was just an all out disaster for the Saints. If he gets 8-10 targets a game which didn't waiver all season he'll be right back where he was.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Can anyone offer some insite as to why Graham was able to post 100+ yds in 4 of the 1st 6 games and never again posted 100+ yds for the rest of the season?

Why is 100 a significant number?I mean I understand your point but we all watched the games...he dominated all season

The point is that his average yds per game for the 1st 6 weeks was 103. Over the final 10 games is dropped to 69. That's pretty dramatic, no? It's been long said that yds, not TDs, are the more reliable measure because TDs can be far more erratic. While I would agree that 70 yds per game for a TE is good, I wouldn't say that is dominant. Many times people feel 2nd half splits can be an indication of things to come in the following year. I'm curious to know why his yardage declined so much. Was it a function of defensive attention? Just Brees spreading it around more? I'm not trying to derail what seems to be an otherwise Graham love-fest. I just noticed this trend in the numbers and thought it was worth exploring.

Even at 69 yards per game it's over 1100 for the season. Graham also had 57 catches and 9 TD in his last 8 games + 2 playoff games.. That prorates to 91 catches and 14+ TD over 16 in what was the "downside" of his season.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Your post is a great example of someone who thinks mechanically, rather than conceptually. Thank you for providing a good "bad" example to the rest of the SP.

No, his post was right on target. We don't know what an average year is like for Graham because the sample size is too small. 2011 could turn out to be "average" for him if they continue to use him like a WR.

Keaton misses the point. I'm not weighing in on Graham, just correcting the misuse of a valid statistical phenomenon. I'm of the opinion that Graham's got a pretty darn high floor, but don;t have time to detail it right now. Perhaps tomorrow I will weigh in with my analysis.

No, I'm not missing the point at all -- you are. Graham has a "natural mean" regardless of whether he's played a snap yet. We just haven't observed it yet.Perhaps we're saying the same thing - but if so, you aren't being terribly articulate.

 

[Instinctive]

Your post is a great example of someone who thinks mechanically, rather than conceptually. Thank you for providing a good "bad" example to the rest of the SP.

No, his post was right on target. We don't know what an average year is like for Graham because the sample size is too small. 2011 could turn out to be "average" for him if they continue to use him like a WR.

Keaton misses the point. I'm not weighing in on Graham, just correcting the misuse of a valid statistical phenomenon. I'm of the opinion that Graham's got a pretty darn high floor, but don;t have time to detail it right now. Perhaps tomorrow I will weigh in with my analysis.

No, I'm not missing the point at all -- you are. Graham has a "natural mean" regardless of whether he's played a snap yet. We just haven't observed it yet.Perhaps we're saying the same thing - but if so, you aren't being terribly articulate.

:smh: ok man. Keep thinking what you think...Graham can't regress to an established mean of baseline production, because he doesn't have one. I'd buy the idea of a natural mean being out there that we don;t know about...but it's difficult to claim that he'll regress to that when for all you know, that's exactly what he was at last season.

 

[whatadai]

I’ll gladly take either Graham or Gradkowski with my third round pick, but I think it’s risky to think either of them can duplicate their 2011 numbers.

I think Gradkowski will easily duplicate his 2011 numbers. So if I was picking between the two based off who will repeat their numbers from 2011, I would take Gradkowski over Graham easily.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think this is why that other guy wants people to #### about regression to the mean.