Johnathan Stewart now undervalued? (1 Viewer)

[Apeman]

I don't know if shark etiquette means I should've added this to the other "Stewart owner" thread, but I thought I'd start a new topic instead of jumping into the discussion there. If this needs to be merged, go right ahead. Anyway, although DeAngelo's return to Carolina certainly takes a chunk out of Johnathan Stewart's value, is it possible that the backlash currently is setting him up to be a auction/draft steal? Couldn't he still provide RB2 numbers?

Carolina is surely going to run the ball a heck of a lot. They did it 525 times in 2009 and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number increase beyond 550 this year. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked to see them approach the ridiculous 607 carries of the 2009 Jets. Running the ball is the obvious strength here, and even with Newton taking a chunk (let's be generous and say a number similar to the 64 carries Rodgers had last year), that still leaves a whole lot for their two stellar RBs even with an occasional bone thrown to Goodson or Sutton. Let's say 560 total carries - 60 for Newton - 30 for Goodson and Sutton and we're looking at 470 for Williams and Stewart.

Yes? No? Are those numbers crazy?

I understand that history has shown that both of these guys won't be able to consistently be effective for fantasy purposes but with a somewhat even distribution (250 for Williams, 220 for Stewart), can't Stewart produce?

And why not a somewhat even distribution of carries anyway? Jon Fox was known for his loyalty to his starters, but this is Ron Rivera's team. And he's got no special loyalties. He just wants to win. Yes, Williams is a stud, but so is Stewart. It's not crazy to think that the younger back could earn the greater playing time despite not carrying a $43 million contract around, right?

I'm not saying Stewart will put up RB1 numbers, but I do think he can still be a productive RB2 with the huge upside we expected in case of an injury to Williams, who's missed time in each of the last two years. FFCalculator shows Stewart's ADP dropping into the 5th round. I could see a chance for real success by grabbing RB and 3 WRs in the first 4 rounds and a solid RB2 in Stewart in round 5.

Am I crazy?

 

[Sabertooth]

Not crazy at all. Although I think your numbers for Sutton and Goodson are low.

 

[Grahamburn]

Your numbers are probably right on. I wouldn't think there would be too much differentiation from the norm carry wise of the previous 3 years with Williams and Stewart. The difference will be the quality of carries. The Panthers were pretty dreadful in all aspects of the game last season. It's tough to get a running game going when your defense can't stop anyone and your offense can't move the ball through the air.

You'll also likely be putting yourself at a major point per game disadvantage with Stewart as a RB2 if DeAngelo gets even just a 60/40 majority of the carries. If Stewart is only a minor part of the game plan, or the Panthers get behind early you could be looking at several 10 carry for 45 yard performances from your second RB. Stewart has shown in the past that he can break big runs and put up monster stats when DeAngelo is still in the mix, but as an owner how will you know when that's going to be?

Take a look at Stewart's early season game logs from his first three seasons:

My link

It won't be easy to overcome that kind of inconsistency week in and week out if you're forced to start him. If you're insistent on having Stewart on your team I'd try to take two RBs and two WRs before him and hope he falls in the fifth. I'd be much more comfortable with Stewart as my RB3.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I don't know if shark etiquette means I should've added this to the other "Stewart owner" thread, but I thought I'd start a new topic instead of jumping into the discussion there. If this needs to be merged, go right ahead. Anyway, although DeAngelo's return to Carolina certainly takes a chunk out of Johnathan Stewart's value, is it possible that the backlash currently is setting him up to be a auction/draft steal? Couldn't he still provide RB2 numbers?Carolina is surely going to run the ball a heck of a lot. They did it 525 times in 2009 and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number increase beyond 550 this year. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked to see them approach the ridiculous 607 carries of the 2009 Jets. Running the ball is the obvious strength here, and even with Newton taking a chunk (let's be generous and say a number similar to the 64 carries Rodgers had last year), that still leaves a whole lot for their two stellar RBs even with an occasional bone thrown to Goodson or Sutton. Let's say 560 total carries - 60 for Newton - 30 for Goodson and Sutton and we're looking at 470 for Williams and Stewart.Yes? No? Are those numbers crazy?I understand that history has shown that both of these guys won't be able to consistently be effective for fantasy purposes but with a somewhat even distribution (250 for Williams, 220 for Stewart), can't Stewart produce? And why not a somewhat even distribution of carries anyway? Jon Fox was known for his loyalty to his starters, but this is Ron Rivera's team. And he's got no special loyalties. He just wants to win. Yes, Williams is a stud, but so is Stewart. It's not crazy to think that the younger back could earn the greater playing time despite not carrying a $43 million contract around, right?I'm not saying Stewart will put up RB1 numbers, but I do think he can still be a productive RB2 with the huge upside we expected in case of an injury to Williams, who's missed time in each of the last two years. FFCalculator shows Stewart's ADP dropping into the 5th round. I could see a chance for real success by grabbing RB and 3 WRs in the first 4 rounds and a solid RB2 in Stewart in round 5.Am I crazy?

I think this is the reality of the situation that most pessimistic stewart owners(like myself ) are not willing to admit. Id say goodson will get a few more carries than you say but at the worst I think Stewart is a safe high end to low end RB2 . The guy is talented enough to do a lot with 200 carries.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Until Carolina has a decent air attack I don't think either JStew or DWill ca be difference makes for most FF owners. New coach too so I don't know how anyone can start projcting without a huge variance in the outcome. Not trying to be a wet rag but this is a total wait and see approach at this point. Just becaue Carolina gave DWill $40m does not mean he is going to produce top3-5 numbers with consistency all the sudden. Carolina had money to burn so why not keep the only strength they have right now.

I think as always if there is an injury to either one of them suddenly the stoc inreases for he remaining guy. And anyone wanting to talk about Goodson/RB3...that's a pipe dream with DWill being locked up for so much money. Whoever the RB3 is in Carolina short of injuries is going to have a very tough time finding touches in this offense I predict a lot of 3 and outs for Carolina too which means they will be sitting on the pine quite a bit.

 

[LHUCKS]

I now believe he is overvalued as his ceiling is much lower with D Will in the picture.

Too bad because this guy could be a fantasy monster as a workhorse.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Depends on the coaching staff. They could decide to run DeAngelo like the #1 rb that he is and Stewart could get fewer carries than in the past. I think they both could be top 5 if they were on different teams. Both are capable of having huge games. Just have to wait (or guess) and see.