Jonathan Stewart (1 Viewer)

[fantasyplayer]

I've noticed a significant discrepancy in his ranking on FBGs re-draft vs. dynasty rankings. Trying not to give away too much subscriber content, many of the same staffers have him ranked an average of 11 spots higher in their dynasty rankings compared to their re-draft rankings.

Obviously this suggests that many expect his situation to change for the better sometime in the next several years. I like his talent, but he's been in the league for 4 seasons and, so far, he hasn't taken over as the lead back (and I'm not suggesting that he necessarily should have). He's got 5 years left on his contract and Williams has 4, leading me to believe that he'll remain in a committee for the foreseeable future.

With all of this in mind, why are the staffers (and others I presume) so much higher on him in the long-term than for this season? What am I missing?

 

[Banger]

I've noticed a significant discrepancy in his ranking on FBGs re-draft vs. dynasty rankings. Trying not to give away too much subscriber content, many of the same staffers have him ranked an average of 11 spots higher in their dynasty rankings compared to their re-draft rankings.Obviously this suggests that many expect his situation to change for the better sometime in the next several years. I like his talent, but he's been in the league for 4 seasons and, so far, he hasn't taken over as the lead back (and I'm not suggesting that he necessarily should have). He's got 5 years left on his contract and Williams has 4, leading me to believe that he'll remain in a committee for the foreseeable future.With all of this in mind, why are the staffers (and others I presume) so much higher on him in the long-term than for this season? What am I missing?

probably that Dwill will not be here after this season possibly. He has 4 years left but I think the guarenteed money dries up this year.

 

[paperstacks1980]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

 

[FDC]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

Here are the 12 backs in front of him in FFC ADP right nowBenson, Ridley, Redman, Tate, Wells, K Smith, Greene, Brown, Hillis, R Bush, BJGEI don't get it personally

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Basically D.Williams is young enough to take significant touches from Stewart this year, but will likely take fewer each year as we go forward and Deangelo gets older.

Stewart had 142 rushes and 47 receptions last year, Williams had 155 and 16... I think Stewart gets more rushes this year.

As as been pointed out, Deangelo might not be around for his whole contract... watch out of Stewart is getting 250+ rushes and 45+ catches.

 

[mbuehner]

I've noticed a significant discrepancy in his ranking on FBGs re-draft vs. dynasty rankings. Trying not to give away too much subscriber content, many of the same staffers have him ranked an average of 11 spots higher in their dynasty rankings compared to their re-draft rankings.Obviously this suggests that many expect his situation to change for the better sometime in the next several years. I like his talent, but he's been in the league for 4 seasons and, so far, he hasn't taken over as the lead back (and I'm not suggesting that he necessarily should have). He's got 5 years left on his contract and Williams has 4, leading me to believe that he'll remain in a committee for the foreseeable future.With all of this in mind, why are the staffers (and others I presume) so much higher on him in the long-term than for this season? What am I missing?

probably that Dwill will not be here after this season possibly. He has 4 years left but I think the guarenteed money dries up this year.

He just resigned. I don't get it either- after he resigned i figured his dynasty value should take a big hit... but it really didn't. Its pretty obvious Carolina has a committee approach to the position, whether its Williams or somebody else I dont see Stewart as a cowbell back with the team. But I think its Cam that really hurts his value, he will eat up too many goalline TDs.

 

[rascal]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

Here are the 12 backs in front of him in FFC ADP right nowBenson, Ridley, Redman, Tate, Wells, K Smith, Greene, Brown, Hillis, R Bush, BJGEI don't get it personally

I can understand Hillis, Bush, and possibly Greene, BJGE, and Benson, but the others are head scratchers.

 

[Shutout]

In a nutshell, I think the answer is that if you watch him play, his talent is SO obvious that people just generally believe that whether its age to DWIL or a situation where JSTEW seizes the grip and just becomes too productive for it to revert or perhaps as Newton develops, the coaches decide they don't want to intentionally risk him to injury by running so much; just...whatever IT is, that, sooner or later, he will emerge and really, all it takes is for him to get the workload and he will immediately skyrocket in production and FF value.

I liken the scenario (for very different reasons) to Willis Mcgahee.

Remember how Willis was such an obvious talent? But then he shredded his knee, fell down the draft board and went to the Bills?

Well, everyone KNEW the talent was there. But it was going to be a long road back and Henry was there and was very good himself.

At one point, it WAS hard to see how a young Travis henry was going to be pushed out of the way for willis. But, as things often do in the NFL, circumstances occurred and the talent was unleashed and Willis was Willis and was very good.

Then, he had almost the reverse happen to him as he found himself in a seemingly excellent position, but then flattened out a bit and found himself pushed out by Rice. And now here we are in 2012 and Willis is still a very productive FF value.

The situations change; unexpectedly at times. But when you see the obvious talent, you know if you have the player when the right time strikes, he can carry your team and that's why people attach that high value.

 

[bengalbuck]

I think Stewart has been overrated for years in dynasty but his value is now down to a more reasonable range where you can feel good about drafting him. I just took him at 4.13 in a dynasty startup.

Having looked at Deangelo's contract, I think he is almost definitely going to be on the team in 2013. His base salary is a bargain and he'll only be 30 years old. However, by 2014, I think he will be a tough decision for the Panthers. He'll be 31 and due a base salary of $6 million. He has almost no chance of seeing that 4th year as he'll be 32 and due $7 million...

The problem which you allude to is legit though. He had a solid season last year with 1,100 total yards, 7 TDs and 50 catches. But those are lower level RB2 numbers and that's probably about what you'd expect the next 2 years unless Willaims gets hurt. That's still solid production but not quite worth his draft slot (you could get similar later from BJGE for example). However, I think the thing that separates him from the others in the same re-draft range is that he is only 25 years old and is going to outlast Deangelo Williams. It's possible that 2 years from now (at age 27 and without a ton of wear and tear from 300 carry seasons), he could have the Carolina backfield mostly to himself and be a monster because the talent is pretty evident.

Overall, I think the combination of solid current production, his youth and the potential for elite numbers sometime down the road justifies his dynasty ranking.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

People have been saying this for the past three years...

 

[SSOG]

I've noticed a significant discrepancy in his ranking on FBGs re-draft vs. dynasty rankings. Trying not to give away too much subscriber content, many of the same staffers have him ranked an average of 11 spots higher in their dynasty rankings compared to their re-draft rankings.Obviously this suggests that many expect his situation to change for the better sometime in the next several years. I like his talent, but he's been in the league for 4 seasons and, so far, he hasn't taken over as the lead back (and I'm not suggesting that he necessarily should have). He's got 5 years left on his contract and Williams has 4, leading me to believe that he'll remain in a committee for the foreseeable future.With all of this in mind, why are the staffers (and others I presume) so much higher on him in the long-term than for this season? What am I missing?

How do you define taking over as the lead back? Last year, Stewart had more yards and more touches than Williams. Most importantly, he played more snaps than Williams. Stewart has seen the percentage of snaps he sees increase every season, while Williams has seen his decline. He even earned starts over a healthy Williams for the first time in his career. I think we've already seen him take over as the lead back. I think the problem is that his redraft ranking is too low, not that his dynasty ranking is too high.

 

[Shutout]

I think Stewart has been overrated for years in dynasty but his value is now down to a more reasonable range where you can feel good about drafting him. I just took him at 4.13 in a dynasty startup.

Having looked at Deangelo's contract, I think he is almost definitely going to be on the team in 2013. His base salary is a bargain and he'll only be 30 years old. However, by 2014, I think he will be a tough decision for the Panthers. He'll be 31 and due a base salary of $6 million. He has almost no chance of seeing that 4th year as he'll be 32 and due $7 million...

The problem which you allude to is legit though. He had a solid season last year with 1,100 total yards, 7 TDs and 50 catches. But those are lower level RB2 numbers and that's probably about what you'd expect the next 2 years unless Willaims gets hurt. That's still solid production but not quite worth his draft slot (you could get similar later from BJGE for example). However, I think the thing that separates him from the others in the same re-draft range is that he is only 25 years old and is going to outlast Deangelo Williams. It's possible that 2 years from now (at age 27 and without a ton of wear and tear from 300 carry seasons), he could have the Carolina backfield mostly to himself and be a monster because the talent is pretty evident.

Overall, I think the combination of solid current production, his youth and the potential for elite numbers sometime down the road justifies his dynasty ranking.

maybe another factor to toss in there: people might be envisioning the level of play that Newton and the Panthers, in general, might be playing at in a few seasons. If Newton becomes one of the next great QB and the team is solid, this could be like owning MJD on the patriots or something...enticing.

 

[SSOG]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

People have been saying this for the past three years...

And they've been right before. Stewart already has a top 12 season to his name. He set a record for most yards by an RB in his first three starts- during the fantasy playoffs, I might add.

 

[SproutDaddy]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

People have been saying this for the past three years...

And they've been right before. Stewart already has a top 12 season to his name. He set a record for most yards by an RB in his first three starts- during the fantasy playoffs, I might add.

And Deangelo has a #1 season. I don't get your point.

 

[FDC]

Having looked at Deangelo's contract, I think he is almost definitely going to be on the team in 2013. His base salary is a bargain and he'll only be 30 years old. However, by 2014, I think he will be a tough decision for the Panthers. He'll be 31 and due a base salary of $6 million. He has almost no chance of seeing that 4th year as he'll be 32 and due $7 million...

Any other team I would agree. Carolina just likes paying guys that have been good to them

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

People have been saying this for the past three years...

And they've been right before. Stewart already has a top 12 season to his name. He set a record for most yards by an RB in his first three starts- during the fantasy playoffs, I might add.

And Deangelo has a #1 season. I don't get your point.

Well, his point certainly had nothing to do with Williams. I think his point was that, yes, people have been predicting big seasons for Stewart, and they've been right. Doesn't seem like a tough one to grasp...

 

[One]

I'm new to his situation and usually avoid it, but now that I have both of them, I'm trying to figure some of it out.

1. Did Williams missing half a season in '10 have any baring on his workload in '11?

2. Williams seems like the main back in this year's preseason games. Is this par for the course (DWill takes the 1's/ Stewart takes the 2's in PS, then they split down the middle in-season)?

3. Are there any glowing reports that Williams could have a larger role than '11?

 

[LargeMouthBass]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

People have been saying this for the past three years...

And they've been right before. Stewart already has a top 12 season to his name. He set a record for most yards by an RB in his first three starts- during the fantasy playoffs, I might add.

When you have to rely on DeAngelo Williams to get injured for you to have a great season, I don't want to take that chance. Plus he has to fight TDs with another TD vulture in Mike Tolbert. Not buying it...

 

[LargeMouthBass]

I'm new to his situation and usually avoid it, but now that I have both of them, I'm trying to figure some of it out.1. Did Williams missing half a season in '10 have any baring on his workload in '11? 2. Williams seems like the main back in this year's preseason games. Is this par for the course (DWill takes the 1's/ Stewart takes the 2's in PS, then they split down the middle in-season)? 3. Are there any glowing reports that Williams could have a larger role than '11?

Most likely RBBC.

 

[FDC]

I'm new to his situation and usually avoid it, but now that I have both of them, I'm trying to figure some of it out.1. Did Williams missing half a season in '10 have any baring on his workload in '11? 2. Williams seems like the main back in this year's preseason games. Is this par for the course (DWill takes the 1's/ Stewart takes the 2's in PS, then they split down the middle in-season)? 3. Are there any glowing reports that Williams could have a larger role than '11?

Most likely RBBC.

+1Almost a complete 50/50 split with some tweaks...DWill gets the start but they go with the hot handJStew gets more designed screens his way

 

[SproutDaddy]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

People have been saying this for the past three years...

And they've been right before. Stewart already has a top 12 season to his name. He set a record for most yards by an RB in his first three starts- during the fantasy playoffs, I might add.

And Deangelo has a #1 season. I don't get your point.

Well, his point certainly had nothing to do with Williams. I think his point was that, yes, people have been predicting big seasons for Stewart, and they've been right. Doesn't seem like a tough one to grasp...

Point taken. I wasn't looking at it in the proper perspective.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think that there's room for both Stewart's and Williams' workload to increase over 2011. They combined for under 300 carries last year, which is absurdly low for two players with their level of ability (and salary). Cam will run less as he develops. The team appears to be on the upswing, and should have more close 2nd halves and leads to protect moving forward.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both guys around 200 - 1000 on the ground, and the TDs will go up d/t Cam's regression to the mean. I think both players are undervalued right now pretty much regardless of format.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

Why would you want to guess who the hot hand is? One rb can rush for 100 yards and a td while the other can rush for 30 yards and 0 td and vice a versa.

 

[FDC]

Why would you want to guess who the hot hand is? One rb can rush for 100 yards and a td while the other can rush for 30 yards and 0 td and vice a versa.

Sure. Hard to ignore this is really J Stew's first year really that he could participate in camp though. Sometimes the best leadership decision is stepping back so someone else can lead. It would not surprise me to see D Will make a similar decision. Those types of veteran things are why I think he is around anyways.

 

[The Kuhn]

If Tolbert hadn't been added to the mix in the offseason, this situation might have cleared itself up. As it stands, the coaching staff have come out saying they like the committee and like the depth, so this backfield will likely stay crowded unless they get an offer they can't refuse for somebody.

 

[Art Vandalay]

D-Will looked like a man posessed last game and I would argue he not J-Stew is the more talented running back (not recieving although D-Will scored threw the air). D-Will's price tag is much cheaper and his upside is higher with Stew more liekly to go down as he will be given more touches and he taking hits at goaline and on swing passes.

 

[bigunreal]

Stewart is probably the most overrated RB in the history of fantasy football. Every year, we see post after post, on every fantasy forum, declaring that this "has to be" his year, that his talent is unquestionable, etc. At this point, it should be obvious that he is what he is; a talented guy stuck in a RBBC with an even more talented 29 year old back who has also been even more underused.

I think the constant pollyanna-ish views on Stewart are based on deluded, wishful thinking by all those fantasy owners who drafted him high as a rookie in keeper laagues.

 

[Magic Football Shoes]

Stewart is probably the most overrated RB in the history of fantasy football. Every year, we see post after post, on every fantasy forum, declaring that this "has to be" his year, that his talent is unquestionable, etc. At this point, it should be obvious that he is what he is; a talented guy stuck in a RBBC with an even more talented 29 year old back who has also been even more underused. I think the constant pollyanna-ish views on Stewart are based on deluded, wishful thinking by all those fantasy owners who drafted him high as a rookie in keeper laagues.

I think this is the vision everyone has of Stewart:15 CAR MIN 25 109 1 3 2 14 1 24.3 16 CAR NYG 28 206 1 2 2 16 0 28.2 17 CAR NO 16 125 1 1 0 0 0 18.5 That was three seasons ago, so I'm not sure why we are such gluttons for punishment.

 

[SSOG]

When you have to rely on DeAngelo Williams to get injured for you to have a great season, I don't want to take that chance. Plus he has to fight TDs with another TD vulture in Mike Tolbert. Not buying it...

You don't have to rely on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Stewart could finish RB16 even if Williams played all 16 games. It's not like his production was that far from that level last year- four more TDs and he would have been there. I'm not buying the "Tolbert throws a wrench in the mix!" thing, here. Tolbert signed a 4 year, 8 million dollar contract. Stewart signed a 6 year, 37 million dollar contract. Tolbert's tied for 6th in carries so far this preseason. I don't think he plays into the rushing mix. Besides, injuries are a fact of life in the NFL. Especially among 29 year old RBs.

D-Will looked like a man posessed last game and I would argue he not J-Stew is the more talented running back (not recieving although D-Will scored threw the air). D-Will's price tag is much cheaper and his upside is higher with Stew more liekly to go down as he will be given more touches and he taking hits at goaline and on swing passes.

Stewart has missed two games since he entered the league. Williams has missed 13. Why is Stewart more likely to go down?

Stewart is probably the most overrated RB in the history of fantasy football. Every year, we see post after post, on every fantasy forum, declaring that this "has to be" his year, that his talent is unquestionable, etc. At this point, it should be obvious that he is what he is; a talented guy stuck in a RBBC with an even more talented 29 year old back who has also been even more underused. I think the constant pollyanna-ish views on Stewart are based on deluded, wishful thinking by all those fantasy owners who drafted him high as a rookie in keeper laagues.

If Stewart was overrated, wouldn't he be consistently underperforming his ADP? Because he hasn't been.

 

[Shutout]

When you have to rely on DeAngelo Williams to get injured for you to have a great season, I don't want to take that chance. Plus he has to fight TDs with another TD vulture in Mike Tolbert. Not buying it...

You don't have to rely on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Stewart could finish RB16 even if Williams played all 16 games. It's not like his production was that far from that level last year- four more TDs and he would have been there. I'm not buying the "Tolbert throws a wrench in the mix!" thing, here. Tolbert signed a 4 year, 8 million dollar contract. Stewart signed a 6 year, 37 million dollar contract. Tolbert's tied for 6th in carries so far this preseason. I don't think he plays into the rushing mix. Besides, injuries are a fact of life in the NFL. Especially among 29 year old RBs.

D-Will looked like a man posessed last game and I would argue he not J-Stew is the more talented running back (not recieving although D-Will scored threw the air). D-Will's price tag is much cheaper and his upside is higher with Stew more liekly to go down as he will be given more touches and he taking hits at goaline and on swing passes.

Stewart has missed two games since he entered the league. Williams has missed 13. Why is Stewart more likely to go down?

Stewart is probably the most overrated RB in the history of fantasy football. Every year, we see post after post, on every fantasy forum, declaring that this "has to be" his year, that his talent is unquestionable, etc. At this point, it should be obvious that he is what he is; a talented guy stuck in a RBBC with an even more talented 29 year old back who has also been even more underused. I think the constant pollyanna-ish views on Stewart are based on deluded, wishful thinking by all those fantasy owners who drafted him high as a rookie in keeper laagues.

If Stewart was overrated, wouldn't he be consistently underperforming his ADP? Because he hasn't been.

 

[DoubleG]

When you have to rely on DeAngelo Williams to get injured for you to have a great season, I don't want to take that chance. Plus he has to fight TDs with another TD vulture in Mike Tolbert. Not buying it...

You don't have to rely on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Stewart could finish RB16 even if Williams played all 16 games. It's not like his production was that far from that level last year- four more TDs and he would have been there. I'm not buying the "Tolbert throws a wrench in the mix!" thing, here. Tolbert signed a 4 year, 8 million dollar contract. Stewart signed a 6 year, 37 million dollar contract. Tolbert's tied for 6th in carries so far this preseason. I don't think he plays into the rushing mix. Besides, injuries are a fact of life in the NFL. Especially among 29 year old RBs.

D-Will looked like a man posessed last game and I would argue he not J-Stew is the more talented running back (not recieving although D-Will scored threw the air). D-Will's price tag is much cheaper and his upside is higher with Stew more liekly to go down as he will be given more touches and he taking hits at goaline and on swing passes.

Stewart has missed two games since he entered the league. Williams has missed 13. Why is Stewart more likely to go down?

Stewart is probably the most overrated RB in the history of fantasy football. Every year, we see post after post, on every fantasy forum, declaring that this "has to be" his year, that his talent is unquestionable, etc. At this point, it should be obvious that he is what he is; a talented guy stuck in a RBBC with an even more talented 29 year old back who has also been even more underused. I think the constant pollyanna-ish views on Stewart are based on deluded, wishful thinking by all those fantasy owners who drafted him high as a rookie in keeper laagues.

If Stewart was overrated, wouldn't he be consistently underperforming his ADP? Because he hasn't been.

I wish there was like an "opposit of ignore" button...a button that would simply only show me threads where SSOG has posted.

 

[Lash]

i LOL at all the eternal optimism on JStew, there is a reason that he won't break out and that reason's name is DeAngelo Williams

get yourself a copy of the CAR v MIA preseason game from last week

watch the VERY FIRST play of the game CAR off starters v MIA def starters

DeWill a 14 yard gain on what would have been a nice 3 yard gain by JStew

first of all the vision to see the cutback IMMEDIATELY, but lets give JStew the benefit of the doubt and say he would have seen in as quick as DeWill (i don't believe he would but as I said I will give him the benefit of the doubt)

a Miami defender read the cutback and set up in the gap right on the LOS and got nothing but air (hugged himself) after a DeWill jump cut (JStew can't physically do this and he would have probably powered through for a 3yd gain)

but let's give the benefit of the doubt again and move on to the next defender

the next Miami defender had the angle and DeWill ate the angle away in a split second and again a Mia defender hugged himself nothing but air. JStew probably would have turned this up the field and used power to get another 2-3 yds but DeWill outran the third level defender - a speedy defensive back - for an extra 12 yards.

then four Mia defenders corraled DeWill to the sideline where he smartly stepped out of bounds (stay healthy man don't listen to Jim Brown)

now rewind it to the point where the Miami guy is at the LOS waiting on DeWill and look at the third level player waiting

the great ones set up the next level WHILE they are getting around their current level

and if you want to argue about my labeling DeWill as great then please check pro football reference for ALL-TIME leading NFL career YPC (yes that is DeWill at 4 overall behind JCharles, Bo, Jim B)

say all of that to say this, it doesn't matter that JStew is in the top10 of the most talented RBs in the NFL, JStew is the second most talented back on his team

it isn't his fault and age will hit DeWill in a bit, you don't have the "Well John Fox always starts vets regardless of who's better" because now it is TWO different coaches that start DeWill over JStew, do you all think it is for some other reason other than talent and skill?

and i am sure not arguing that DeWill is not injury prone and I can see a JStew huge year with a DeWill injury which is usually 50/50, except that so is JStews injury likeliness

 

[Lash]

and we've discussed this ad nauseum:

just because a player doesn't miss alot of games does not make them full strength

i applaud JStew's resilience at playing through injuries but he is ALWAYS hurt

and that affects a coach and how often he will give a guy bellcow attempts

so please no more of the JStew is a mountain of health only missing two games talk, it doesn't tell the full story and is a misleading stat

 

[Lash]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

People have been saying this for the past three years...

And they've been right before. Stewart already has a top 12 season to his name. He set a record for most yards by an RB in his first three starts- during the fantasy playoffs, I might add.

yes they have been right beforeONCEhe has beaten his ADP once in his career, and missed it twice with a "push" one year

 

[scrumptrulescent]

i LOL at all the eternal optimism on JStew, there is a reason that he won't break out and that reason's name is DeAngelo Williamsget yourself a copy of the CAR v MIA preseason game from last weekwatch the VERY FIRST play of the game CAR off starters v MIA def startersDeWill a 14 yard gain on what would have been a nice 3 yard gain by JStewfirst of all the vision to see the cutback IMMEDIATELY, but lets give JStew the benefit of the doubt and say he would have seen in as quick as DeWill (i don't believe he would but as I said I will give him the benefit of the doubt)a Miami defender read the cutback and set up in the gap right on the LOS and got nothing but air (hugged himself) after a DeWill jump cut (JStew can't physically do this and he would have probably powered through for a 3yd gain)but let's give the benefit of the doubt again and move on to the next defenderthe next Miami defender had the angle and DeWill ate the angle away in a split second and again a Mia defender hugged himself nothing but air. JStew probably would have turned this up the field and used power to get another 2-3 yds but DeWill outran the third level defender - a speedy defensive back - for an extra 12 yards. then four Mia defenders corraled DeWill to the sideline where he smartly stepped out of bounds (stay healthy man don't listen to Jim Brown)

You stating D Williams is more elusive than Stewart based on that one preseason play?

Jonathan Stewart grades out as Pro Football Focus' most elusive back of the last three seasons.PFF uses a formula that factors in missed tackles and production after contact to grade each player. Since the start of the 2009 season, Stewart's 58.8 rating paces the league. Fred Jackson, Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, and Marshawn Lynch round out the top-five. Buffalo's Tashard Choice (11.4) has the lowest mark among active backs.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

My opinion is that Jonathan Stewart has phenomenal talent and people who think that want him to develop into a phenomenal, consistent, bell cow RB. But he hasn't. So they are frustrated and think that it must happen.

My opinion is that Jonathan Stewart has played, in spurts, up to his talent. So it's reasonable to think he will develop into that consistent bell cow RB.

My opinion is that Jonathan Stewart has played better than many of his detractors think.

My opinion is that DeAngelo Williams is a better RB than many Jonathan Stewart fans think.

My opinion is that "Jonathan Stewart" translates to "frustration" in some foreign language.

 

[Pura Vida]

worst case scenario, he is a good bye week play. One injury and he is an every week play. That is good value!!!!

 

[bengalbuck]

My opinion is that Jonathan Stewart has phenomenal talent and people who think that want him to develop into a phenomenal, consistent, bell cow RB. But he hasn't. So they are frustrated and think that it must happen. My opinion is that Jonathan Stewart has played, in spurts, up to his talent. So it's reasonable to think he will develop into that consistent bell cow RB.My opinion is that Jonathan Stewart has played better than many of his detractors think. My opinion is that DeAngelo Williams is a better RB than many Jonathan Stewart fans think. My opinion is that "Jonathan Stewart" translates to "frustration" in some foreign language.

I don't really disagree with any of this. I still say his dynasty value now (which is much lower than it has been the last few years) is right about where it should be due to 3 factors:1. He has a solid floor due to his decent production. He was a top 20 RB last year despite scoring only 5 TDs (PPR scoring). It's not crazy to think he puts up similar numbers again but adds a few more TDs (everyone in the Shark Pool seems to think Cam won't score 14 again and J Stew has had a couple double digit TD seasons already). Even in a full fledged RBBC, last year's exact stats plus 4 or 5 more TDs put him over 200 points and solidly into high RB2 territory.2. Longer term, he still has a ceiling that is higher than most of the other RBs after the top 10 to 15 are off the board. With regard to Williams, you can't ignore the fact that Stewart is over 4 years younger than Deangelo. Logically, it seems like there are eventually going to be some Jonathan Stewart seasons after Deangelo's career is finished...Is it a guarantee that he'll ever be a bell cow guy? Of course not. But you have to factor the chance of it happening into his ranking somewhat. If its J. Stew vs. a guy with similar production but no chance of ever being an elite guy, I'll take the guy with the upside.3. It seems like Stewart's been around forever, but he is only 2 years older than a rookie like Doug Martin. He's a talented 25 year old RB on a potentially fantastic offense that likes to run the ball a lot. I think the hate has almost gone too far in some dynasty leagues. I am halfway through a PPR dynasty startup and Stewart fell to the 22nd RB taken. The other RBs in the 20-24 range were Frank Gore, Michael Turner, Beanie Wells, and Roy Helu. I have a hard time seeing him as "overrated" when those are the type of RBs being drafted in his vicinity in some leagues these days....

 

[Biabreakable]

I took advice and watched week 2 preseason game: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012081753/2012/PRE2/dolphins@panthers#menu=highlights|contentId:0ap2000000051741&tab=analyze

This covers many of the issues I think.

What gives Stewart an advantage with Cam Newton is he may be the better blocker of the 2 and because of that more likely to be involved on 3rd down than Williams when both are fully healthy.

Williams missed time in 2011 but seems fine now. I think Stewart is a really good RB but Williams is a more explosive runner. If both are healthy I think Williams will end up with more 1st and 2nd down rushing attempts while Stewart gets more 3rd downs with both being pretty even overall in opportunities.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

When you have to rely on DeAngelo Williams to get injured for you to have a great season, I don't want to take that chance. Plus he has to fight TDs with another TD vulture in Mike Tolbert. Not buying it...

You don't have to rely on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Stewart could finish RB16 even if Williams played all 16 games. It's not like his production was that far from that level last year- four more TDs and he would have been there. I'm not buying the "Tolbert throws a wrench in the mix!" thing, here. Tolbert signed a 4 year, 8 million dollar contract. Stewart signed a 6 year, 37 million dollar contract. Tolbert's tied for 6th in carries so far this preseason. I don't think he plays into the rushing mix. Besides, injuries are a fact of life in the NFL. Especially among 29 year old RBs.

What's the point of having stats that say Stewart is rb16 when he puts up duds when you start him and he performs like a stud every time you sit him? Cumulative stats are useless when he isn't consistent...

 

[Anthony Borbely]

In non PPR, Stewart has been RB24, RB11, RB35, and RB25. So RB25 or higher 3 of 4 years including a year as a RB1. Last year in PPR, Stewart was 18th, so last year he was 25th in non-PPR and 18th in PPR. Last year he had 140 carries, 47 receptions and 4 rushing TDs.

I think last year is Stewart's floor going forward. Even those that don't like Stewart can probably agree that his touches will at least be equal to last years. Personally I think the rushing attempts will increase a bit from year to year as Williams gets older. But for arguments sake lets assume the touches stay the same as last year (140 rushes, 47 receptions, 187 total touches). Even if he has the same number of touches, I have to think the rushing TDs will increase because it's hard to imagine Carolina continuing to risk Newton at the goal line. If he adds even a modest 3 rushing TDs (definitely reasonable) his non-PPR will probably be close to RB20 and his PPR close to RB15. I don't think any of this is unreasonable. To me this is Stewart's floor. He was RB25 last year (18 in PPR) on only 140 carries, 47 receptions, and 4 rushing TDs. Maybe the touches won't increase (I personally see a modest increase in rushing attempts). Even if they don't, Stewart still was a top 25 RB and top 20 in PPR. I would gladly take him as a low risk RB2 if I chose to load up my roster at other positions. Since he has been a top 25 RB in non PPR as a part time player (and 18th in PPR last year), I don't think ranking Stewart as a RB2 is unreasonable. And this assumes no increase in touches.

Regarding Dynasty, his consensus ranking here at FBGs is RB14. The RBs immediately below him are Ingram, Lynch, Sproles, S Jax, David Wilson, Bradshaw, Spiller, Gore, Ryan Williams, and F Jax. The only player I could possibly see people wanting more than Stewart in this list is Lynch, but it's hard to ignore his history. If Lynch could just be ranked on football alone he would probably be a few spots higher. I don't know about anyone else, but I certainly would not draft anyone on that list in a dynasty league over Stewart. I don't see anything unreasonable about Stewart being ranked 14th in dynasty.

 

[DoubleG]

When you have to rely on DeAngelo Williams to get injured for you to have a great season, I don't want to take that chance. Plus he has to fight TDs with another TD vulture in Mike Tolbert. Not buying it...

You don't have to rely on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Stewart could finish RB16 even if Williams played all 16 games. It's not like his production was that far from that level last year- four more TDs and he would have been there. I'm not buying the "Tolbert throws a wrench in the mix!" thing, here. Tolbert signed a 4 year, 8 million dollar contract. Stewart signed a 6 year, 37 million dollar contract. Tolbert's tied for 6th in carries so far this preseason. I don't think he plays into the rushing mix. Besides, injuries are a fact of life in the NFL. Especially among 29 year old RBs.

What's the point of having stats that say Stewart is rb16 when he puts up duds when you start him and he performs like a stud every time you sit him? Cumulative stats are useless when he isn't consistent...

Bingo. The problem with Stewart is that if you have him as your RB2, your pretty much riding a roller coaster.Just as an example, lets compare his weekly production to that of Beannie Wells (another RB2 who is much maligned). Looking at last season, here are the number of times your RB2 would have given you 8 or less fantasy points (standard, nonPPR):Stewart: 9Wells: 6**- Wells also missed week 17, but you knew he was going to ahead of time.It's also worth noting that Wells had 2 week where he put up 30+ points. Stewart's highest week was 15 twice. The point being, week to week, Stewart is inconsistant. Add to that the fact that he also has the "ceiling" of DWill taking touches and his value in redraft is simply a headache. In dynasty, while I agree, his talent puts him in the upper echelon, his touches and continual wait for a boost in touches that would push him out of "RB2" land has been maddeningly slow to come. By the time it does he may so close to the "cliff" of 30, it may not be worth it.

 

[PatsWillWin]

People just can't accept that Stewart is not going to be a feature back anytime in the neat future. He's been drafted in startups for 2-3 years as such, and it never materialized because owners are blinded by his upside.

The facts:

- DeAngello and Stewart at comparable talents.

- The Panthers (obviously) are willing to pay to keep two of their four best offensive weapons even at the risk of getting LOL'd at by fantasy football owners for devoting so much $ to the RB position because they're bitter.

- By all accounts, DeAngello and Stewart get along great and enjoy that they have a 1-2 punch. DeAngello has been quoted as saying that he's glad Stewart was extended because it will extend his career.

- It makes no sense for the Panthers to cut Williams before 2014 because of his guaranteed money - they'd take a huge cap hit to cut him next year, and they're not going to do that to help your dynasty team.

- Newton is an excellent GL back.

- Tolbert is an excellent GL back.

- Stewart will continue to be over-drafted and Williams will continue to be a value.

That is all.

 

[zamboni]

Pretty much all has been said. Love the talent, but hate the situation in him ever being an RB1.

Stewart clearly has the opportunity to put up big numbers, but will take a DW injury to do so. Unfortunately, that's the case with a lot of really good committee backs (Charles/Hillis comes to mind).

Longer term, I do have some reservations about Stewart even if DW is cut after 2012 or 2013. What's to say that the team doesn't bring in another quality back to share time, if only since they like the committee and don't want to overwork Stewart?

 

[Banger]

he's a good flex with RB1 upside if Dwill gets hurt. Nice 3rd back.

 

[DoubleG]

he's a good flex with RB1 upside if Dwill gets hurt. Nice 3rd back.

The problem with this line of thinking (which I used to hold) is the inconsistency I mentioned above. He's a decent flex...maybe...and really only in PPR scoring formats. In 2010 DWill missed 10 games - and JStews numbers were...decent. So I'm not so sure the whole "RB1 upside if DWill goes down" theory is all that solid - and other than 2010, DWill hasn't missed more than 3 games in a season.I think he's a great 4th back, but there are more consistant options for your RB3 - not necessarily with his upside, but your RB3 needs to be able to cover at least 2 bye weeks - and Stewart is almost to inconsistant to even do that well.

 

[JamesTheScot]

i think hes going to have a big season this yr

People have been saying this for the past three years...

And they've been right before. Stewart already has a top 12 season to his name. He set a record for most yards by an RB in his first three starts- during the fantasy playoffs, I might add.

And Deangelo has a #1 season. I don't get your point.

Well, his point certainly had nothing to do with Williams. I think his point was that, yes, people have been predicting big seasons for Stewart, and they've been right. Doesn't seem like a tough one to grasp...

Point taken. I wasn't looking at it in the proper perspective.

The point unavoidably involves Williams, though, even if his name isn't mentioned.This is one of the truest RBBC's in the league. You can't evaluate either back without running into the influence the other back has on the situation.The longer Williams sticks around and remains productive, the less dynasty upside there is for Stewart. People too often assume Williams will be gone in 2013 or 2014. But the problem with that assumption is that he likes Carolina, Carolina likes him, and he's still been a very productive back. And he can always renegotiate his contract to stay in Carolina.So far, there aren't any signs that he's breaking down. In fact, the argument has been made that he may not drop off for a couple of more years because the timeshare is extending his shelf-life. At this point I've started to downgrade Stewart's dynasty value a bit. At every opportunity to put these guys on different NFL teams and capitalize on both RB's upside, it hasn't happened. At this point Stewart's big chance may not come until 2014.

 

[Banger]

he's a good flex with RB1 upside if Dwill gets hurt. Nice 3rd back.

The problem with this line of thinking (which I used to hold) is the inconsistency I mentioned above. He's a decent flex...maybe...and really only in PPR scoring formats. In 2010 DWill missed 10 games - and JStews numbers were...decent. So I'm not so sure the whole "RB1 upside if DWill goes down" theory is all that solid - and other than 2010, DWill hasn't missed more than 3 games in a season.I think he's a great 4th back, but there are more consistant options for your RB3 - not necessarily with his upside, but your RB3 needs to be able to cover at least 2 bye weeks - and Stewart is almost to inconsistant to even do that well.

Agreed there is the inconsistency but I think he'll pop in more than 5 combined tds this year, he's their #1 receiving back, and I can see him start to take over the lionshare of the carries as the year goes on. Personally, I like to take the homerun upside there with not much risk as I can still add a 4th/5th RBs like a Leshoure/R. Williams/Vereen/Benson/Hillman/etc. and see what happens. Things change fast with injuries, guys taking the ball and running with it, whatever and I prefer to swing for the fences talent wise and hope that the situations develop over the year. It's worked pretty well for me over the years.

 

[JamesTheScot]

When you have to rely on DeAngelo Williams to get injured for you to have a great season, I don't want to take that chance. Plus he has to fight TDs with another TD vulture in Mike Tolbert. Not buying it...

You don't have to rely on a DeAngelo Williams injury. Stewart could finish RB16 even if Williams played all 16 games. It's not like his production was that far from that level last year- four more TDs and he would have been there. I'm not buying the "Tolbert throws a wrench in the mix!" thing, here. Tolbert signed a 4 year, 8 million dollar contract. Stewart signed a 6 year, 37 million dollar contract. Tolbert's tied for 6th in carries so far this preseason. I don't think he plays into the rushing mix. Besides, injuries are a fact of life in the NFL. Especially among 29 year old RBs.

What's the point of having stats that say Stewart is rb16 when he puts up duds when you start him and he performs like a stud every time you sit him? Cumulative stats are useless when he isn't consistent...

Bingo. The problem with Stewart is that if you have him as your RB2, your pretty much riding a roller coaster.Just as an example, lets compare his weekly production to that of Beannie Wells (another RB2 who is much maligned). Looking at last season, here are the number of times your RB2 would have given you 8 or less fantasy points (standard, nonPPR):

Stewart: 9

Wells: 6*

*- Wells also missed week 17, but you knew he was going to ahead of time.

It's also worth noting that Wells had 2 week where he put up 30+ points. Stewart's highest week was 15 twice.

The point being, week to week, Stewart is inconsistant. Add to that the fact that he also has the "ceiling" of DWill taking touches and his value in redraft is simply a headache. In dynasty, while I agree, his talent puts him in the upper echelon, his touches and continual wait for a boost in touches that would push him out of "RB2" land has been maddeningly slow to come. By the time it does he may so close to the "cliff" of 30, it may not be worth it.

The irony here is that with DeAngelo sticking around, Stewart will be the "aging" back on the roster once DeAngelo is finally put out to pasture. He's 25 years old now. If Williams sticks for 2012 and 2013 and then gets moved/cut, that means Stewart will be 27 heading into his 2014 season. Sure, that's still young enough to have a few more productive years. But why assume he gets the whole pie once DeAngelo is gone. For Stewart's long term outlook, doesn't anyone think it possible that Carolina drafts another promising young RB in the next couple of years? What we are seeing now from Stewart may be all that we ever see from him. Make no mistake, he isn't the feature back in 2012 for a reason. Carolina doesn't want him to be. At this point I think it a bit naive to assume they ever will. That's not an indictment of his skill, talent or potential. It's just a recognition that his situation may always be as a time share back by Carolina design.

 

[simey]

- By all accounts, DeAngello and Stewart get along great and enjoy that they have a 1-2 punch. DeAngello has been quoted as saying that he's glad Stewart was extended because it will extend his career.

DeAngelo and Stewart are best friends. DeAngelo said recently that he and Stewart are happy about the idea of finishing their career together at Carolina. I don't think the Panthers will cut DeAngelo next year (but I could be wrong), because his guaranteed money will all be paid off this year, and he can restructure his contract next year to keep everyone happy. Steve Smith has done that while staying with the Panthers. If the Panthers cut DeAngelo next year it would cost them over 4 million, and his base salary wouldn't be much more than that to keep him. I think Double Trouble will live on for a while, but things can change quickly in the NFL.