Jordy Nelson or Victor Cruz (1 Viewer)

[lbouchard]

Both of these guys burst onto the scene in 2011 and finished top 5. They're both considered the WR2, although they outscored their WR1s. Both are in very good offenses, but you have to give edge to Rodgers. Which of these guys do you think is more likely to repeat their amazing season?

 

[Raider Nation]

That's a pretty good one.

Assuming a healthy Nicks, I'll take Nelson. Not that I disrespect Jennings at all. Just think GB throws more.

 

[habsfan]

That's a pretty good one.Assuming a healthy Nicks, I'll take Nelson. Not that I disrespect Jennings at all. Just think GB throws more.

I'm not sure either is likely but in terms of "most likely", I would take Nelson as well.

 

[jtd13]

I like Nelson, but I think it's Cruz by a lot in PPR. non PPR they are close. I just think Cruz is a bigger part of the offense in NY, and a more talented player.

 

[Badgers Fan]

Cruz, but pending format. It's closer in standard leagues. Jordy was aided by 15 td's, HIGHLY unlikely to be repeated. In the 3 games Greg Jennings missed, Jordy had 306 yards and 5 td. Before that ( in his first 13 games) he was still on pace for 1178 yards and 10 td though, nothing to sneeze at. Both players had super high ypc that I believe will drop to around the 14-16 area. Victor is in a better spot. Jordy competes with Greg and JerMichael for targets. And James Jones will take some red zone targets. However, Rodgers is awesome enough to move in around. In New York, Victor is the clear cut 2nd option, and he has a beast wr1 to make sure he is rarely doubled. Personally, I have Jordy around 65/1050/8 and Cruz around 75/1150/7. Both have upside on those projections.

 

[tombonneau]

Really good topic as these guys are in very similar situations as NFL WR2s coming off seasons where they produced like WR1s, so there is a bit of an NFL Perception vs. Fantasy Reality gap.

I was pimping the Nelson Bandwagon pretty big in the Pool early last year so I'm a bit biased . I was also a Nicks owner so unfortunately got to know Cruz a little more than I'd want to as well.

That said, I'm targeting Cruz. I think he is the better NFL player and unlike GB where there are a ton of mouths to feed, there are only two in NY, and unless Nicks is so hobbled that teams stop doubling him, I think the Giants are fine with their passing system where Nicks gets doubled and Cruz eats up single, with Nicks still able to make the occasional play.

As for Nelson, I'm not a fan of the "yeah, well, take away that one big play" mentality, but with Nelson it seemed like there were more than a couple potential 2/20 games saved by one huge play. I mean, I guess it's great it happened enough where it wasn't really flukey (if that makes sense?) and the guy makes big plays, and it was fine when you were playing the guy essentially as a WR3, but taking him as a WR2 borderline WR1 I'd want more consistency.

Plus, I loved Cobb in college and really think he is a special talent that will start earning his way onto the field more and more.

 

[Sweet Love]

I like Nelson, but I think it's Cruz by a lot in PPR. non PPR they are close. I just think Cruz is a bigger part of the offense in NY, and a more talented player.

I am not sure whether Cruz is more talented, but when I look at the passing options for a very good QB in NY versus that in GB, you are comparing the following:Jennings - Nicks = washFinley - Bennett = blow out in favor of GBDriver, Cobb, Jones - Randall, Hixon, Jernigan, Barden = tilt to GBIf Nicks shows any signs of poor recovery from the injury, it will not be close.

 

[Jercules]

Cruz, but pending format. It's closer in standard leagues. Jordy was aided by 15 td's, HIGHLY unlikely to be repeated. In the 3 games Greg Jennings missed, Jordy had 306 yards and 5 td. Before that ( in his first 13 games) he was still on pace for 1178 yards and 10 td though, nothing to sneeze at. Both players had super high ypc that I believe will drop to around the 14-16 area. Victor is in a better spot. Jordy competes with Greg and JerMichael for targets. And James Jones will take some red zone targets. However, Rodgers is awesome enough to move in around. In New York, Victor is the clear cut 2nd option, and he has a beast wr1 to make sure he is rarely doubled. Personally, I have Jordy around 65/1050/8 and Cruz around 75/1150/7. Both have upside on those projections.

Great post. All it would take is a subtle change in the way teams defend GB for all those Nelson TDs to go to Jennings (or Finley, or Jones, or Cobb...)Cruz, on the other hand, has proven himself as a dynamic player that complements Nicks much like Welker complemented Moss. Now that Jake Ballard has been cut, it looks like that NY offense is even more dependent on those two receivers. I think a statistical regression is likely for both players, but moreso for Nelson.

 

[smackdaddies]

great question. As a Packer fan, I would go with Cruz. Nelson has to compete with too many other targets and I think it almost impossible for him to equal his td's from last year. So, Nelson has a good season, but Cruz has a better chance of repeating last years scoring output

 

[finito]

Cruz for me by a lot, but I watched more of Cruz last season and came away really impressed with him - he's a really good player and should be a major part of the offense. Nelson should too, but it does seem like they are a bit more jam packed with options.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I like Cruz to repeat. He works in the slot and it's more difficult to matchup good CBs on him.

Nelson makes a living on that backshoulder ball...but I don't see his TD/Target ratio being out of this world like last season. Although he should see more targets this season.

 

[hotbaconsauce]

Good question.

NAME POS YR TARG REC RECYD YD/REC FD RECTDJordy Nelson wr 2010 64 45 582 12.9333 25 2Jordy Nelson wr 2011 95 68 1263 18.5735 47 15Victor Cruz wr 2011 132 83 1545 18.6145 59 9
Looks like Cruz was on board for more targets and more yards. Jordy catches more passes. '3rd year receivers' and 'sophomore slump' may come into play, but that is never consistent. I'd say it's a pretty good toss up. Looks like Nelson is going a few ADP after Cruz, so it may come down to their different BYEs and your team strength in the first 2-3 rounds.