Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Jordy Nelson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Bayhawks]

Jordy Nelson plays for the best QB in the game, on an offense that seems to be reliant on the pass (especially if they don't re-sign Grant), and had a "break-out" year (although it was in his 4th year, and not the "magical" 3rd year). Expectations are likely sky-high for him. I believe those expectations may need to be tempered, however.

Over his time as a starter, Rodgers has targeted his top-2 WRs between 210-230 total times, but as his other WRs (Nelson, Jones, Cobb) & Finley have developed, he's been closer to the 210 mark than the 230.

I see GB having to pass more this year (questions at RB), so let's bump the targets for the WR1 & WR2 to the 230 mark.

Jennings is still, IMO, the WR1, but let's split those targets equally, 115 for him, 115 for Nelson.

Nelson has averaged a 67% catch rate throughout his career, so let's give him 77 catches.

Last year, Nelson averaged almost 19 yards/catch (18.6). Prior to last season, he averaged 12.7 ypc. That's a substantial jump. It's reasonable to expect that number to return closer to his career average. Let's say 15 ypc.

His TD total last year was also significantly higher than his previous years. He had 15 TDs in 2011, while he averaged 2/year prior to that. Rodgers threw for 45 TDs last year. I don't expect Rodgers to throw quite as many this season, and 5 of Nelson's TDs came at the end of the year when Jennings was out (and his targerts jumped from 5/game to 9/game). It's likely to expect that TD total to drop in 2012.

So here are my projections:

115 targets, 77 receptions (67% catch rate), 15 ypc, 1155 yards, 8 TDs. That MIGHT sneak him into the bottom of the top-10 FF WRs.

 

[SWC]

this guys is not a sleeper anymore because everyone saw him light up the sky of lambeau with blazing colors last year but he still gets single coverage because he is not named jennings or jerrmichael and i think he can take most anyone one on one because he has the moves like jagger with crazy swivel hips and the ability to burn right past a slowpoke joke and just take a look at the bad secondaries that the pack plays thorugh the middle of the year brohans so i think he will get about 1100 yards and 10 tds not as high as last year but still pretty good abd now teams see him coming which will probably mean a huge year for cobber the touchdown robber which is my nickname for him my nickname for jordy is the flying burrito because kansas has some good mexican restaurants take it to the bank brohans and you heard it here first

 

[Shutout]

No way he repeats the Gaudy TD totals. Cobb and driver are in the picture. If the Packers ever realize they have a guy that is capable of doing Jimmy graham-like damage to teams, that would temper his output too.

 

[kutta]

Jordy Nelson plays for the best QB in the game, on an offense that seems to be reliant on the pass (especially if they don't re-sign Grant), and had a "break-out" year (although it was in his 4th year, and not the "magical" 3rd year). Expectations are likely sky-high for him. I believe those expectations may need to be tempered, however.

Over his time as a starter, Rodgers has targeted his top-2 WRs between 210-230 total times, but as his other WRs (Nelson, Jones, Cobb) & Finley have developed, he's been closer to the 210 mark than the 230.

I see GB having to pass more this year (questions at RB), so let's bump the targets for the WR1 & WR2 to the 230 mark.

Jennings is still, IMO, the WR1, but let's split those targets equally, 115 for him, 115 for Nelson.

Nelson has averaged a 67% catch rate throughout his career, so let's give him 77 catches.

Last year, Nelson averaged almost 19 yards/catch (18.6). Prior to last season, he averaged 12.7 ypc. That's a substantial jump. It's reasonable to expect that number to return closer to his career average. Let's say 15 ypc.

His TD total last year was also significantly higher than his previous years. He had 15 TDs in 2011, while he averaged 2/year prior to that. Rodgers threw for 45 TDs last year. I don't expect Rodgers to throw quite as many this season, and 5 of Nelson's TDs came at the end of the year when Jennings was out (and his targerts jumped from 5/game to 9/game). It's likely to expect that TD total to drop in 2012.

So here are my projections:

115 targets, 77 receptions (67% catch rate), 15 ypc, 1155 yards, 8 TDs. That MIGHT sneak him into the bottom of the top-10 FF WRs.

I think you have to look at more than just past history and taking averages, though I think your projection is decent. Nelson broke out in a big way last year, and there are indications that GB wants to use him even more this year. Here's a snippet from RotoWorld:

Coach Mike McCarthy plans to expand Jordy Nelson's route tree, including more snaps in the slot.

McCarthy plans to make Nelson "more of the focus" by taking advantage of matchups. "It's more about having the opportunity," said McCarthy, "because statistics speak for themselves."

 

[az_prof]

Jordy Nelson plays for the best QB in the game, on an offense that seems to be reliant on the pass (especially if they don't re-sign Grant), and had a "break-out" year (although it was in his 4th year, and not the "magical" 3rd year). Expectations are likely sky-high for him. I believe those expectations may need to be tempered, however.

Over his time as a starter, Rodgers has targeted his top-2 WRs between 210-230 total times, but as his other WRs (Nelson, Jones, Cobb) & Finley have developed, he's been closer to the 210 mark than the 230.

I see GB having to pass more this year (questions at RB), so let's bump the targets for the WR1 & WR2 to the 230 mark.

Jennings is still, IMO, the WR1, but let's split those targets equally, 115 for him, 115 for Nelson.

Nelson has averaged a 67% catch rate throughout his career, so let's give him 77 catches.

Last year, Nelson averaged almost 19 yards/catch (18.6). Prior to last season, he averaged 12.7 ypc. That's a substantial jump. It's reasonable to expect that number to return closer to his career average. Let's say 15 ypc.

His TD total last year was also significantly higher than his previous years. He had 15 TDs in 2011, while he averaged 2/year prior to that. Rodgers threw for 45 TDs last year. I don't expect Rodgers to throw quite as many this season, and 5 of Nelson's TDs came at the end of the year when Jennings was out (and his targerts jumped from 5/game to 9/game). It's likely to expect that TD total to drop in 2012.

So here are my projections:

115 targets, 77 receptions (67% catch rate), 15 ypc, 1155 yards, 8 TDs. That MIGHT sneak him into the bottom of the top-10 FF WRs.

This is exactly how I would do this analysis. Well done and very reasonable assumptions. I would project the same thing.

 

[Bayhawks]

I think you have to look at more than just past history and taking averages,

To an extent, I agree with you; you can't just say "Player x had 1300 yards two years ago & 1100 yards last year, so that means next year, he should get 1200." That's not what I did though. The offense in GB is not changed much the last few years. Sure, the OC left, but the HC (offensive-minded guy), QB, WR1, TE are all the same. The offensive scheme/philosophy is unchanged. And in that offense, with those guys, the QB doesn't lock onto 1 guy, and the WR1 & WR2 tend to get about 210-230 targets. Usually, the WR1 gets 20 or so more targets than the WR2. I know Nelson broke out, so I accounted for that, by increasing his YPC, number of targets, and TD rate. I don't, however, believe it's wise to assume he will surpass Jennings, and that GB (or Rodgers) will change their offensive philosohpy and force the ball to Nelson, no matter what kind of "coach-speak" is being dispensed in May.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

There are very few offenses where the parts seem interchangeable. Green Bay is one of those offenses as I would also say New England & New Orleans. What I mean specifically by this is that no matter what part of their offense you try to take away on defense, someone or something else emerges that only serves to make them that much more proficient…like a hydra that when you cut off one of the heads, 2 more grow back. Coming into the 2011 season, many people were expecting the second coming of Jesus Christ with the return of Jermichael Finley. While Finley’s inconsistency had more to do with his lack of All-Pro coming out party…this simply did not come close to phasing the Packers offense in the least.

The statistic that’s shocking to me about Nelson is that he produced unbelievable numbers on only 96 targets; 5 fewer targets than Greg Jennings who missed 3 games. And if we are breaking this down even further, in the 13 games Jennings played, Nelson had only 70 targets. His numbers with Jennings on the field? 49/958/10.

Nelson was incredibly effective all over the field, but his usage was simply more situational than what you would expect out of a player with his production levels. 5-6 targets/game? When you have a WR corps where the #5 WR (Randall Cobb) could start in the slot for a majority of NFL teams, not to mention a ridiculously gifted albeit mercurial TE…is it reasonable to expect an increase in targets? If not, than can you expect an increase in efficiency? It would be tough – only 2 WR’s with more targets than Nelson (Colston & Harvin) had better catch %’s.

So in Nelson, you have a stock at a 52 week high. Can he replicate his 2011 numbers? Well, he certainly has the QB to do so. But given how deadly he was when the Packers picked their spots, teams may take their chances by taking an efficient and consistent weapon away from Rodgers in favor of opening up another avenue for Rodgers to pick apart. Whatever winds up happening, I feel 100% confident that so long as Aaron Rodgers is under center, the GB offense will be dynamic, explosive…whatever other superlative you want to put out there.

The problem for me with any GB WR is that they can switch roles likethis. Could Nelson all of a sudden become WR1 and Jennings WR2? Yes. Could Nelson become WR3 and Cobb WR2? Less possible, but yes if Cobb all of a sudden become a dynamic slot guy. I just feel like of the three offenses I mentioned above, Green Bay’s is the most fluid but in a good way. Up until this year, I would have said New Orleans. But when you have 5 players catch at least 6 TD’s…spreading the wealth is what you do best. For whatever reason, I see Finley bouncing back and Nelson becoming somewhat human again. But GB is going to be tough to forecast and my prediction is written in pencil...lightly.

Prediction: 61 Receptions, 1098 Receiving Yards, 8 TD’s.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

If the Packers ever realize they have a guy that is capable of doing Jimmy graham-like damage to teams, that would temper his output too.

McCarthy and Rodgers realized that long ago. If That guy ever figured out how to run routes/catch the ball instead of going "free style" as he put it, he would put up those numbers. Finley is not in the class of Graham. Finley is the epitome of inconsistent, and I don't see that changing.

 

[beto]

this guys is not a sleeper anymore because everyone saw him light up the sky of lambeau with blazing colors last year but he still gets single coverage because he is not named jennings or jerrmichael and i think he can take most anyone one on one because he has the moves like jagger with crazy swivel hips and the ability to burn right past a slowpoke joke and just take a look at the bad secondaries that the pack plays thorugh the middle of the year brohans so i think he will get about 1100 yards and 10 tds not as high as last year but still pretty good abd now teams see him coming which will probably mean a huge year for cobber the touchdown robber which is my nickname for him my nickname for jordy is the flying burrito because kansas has some good mexican restaurants take it to the bank brohans and you heard it here first

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

No way he repeats the Gaudy TD totals. Cobb and driver are in the picture. If the Packers ever realize they have a guy that is capable of doing Jimmy graham-like damage to teams, that would temper his output too.

good to see people are still overrating finley.Jordy nelson will represent value, extreme value still, Greg Jennings like production a whole 2 rounds later

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

No way he repeats the Gaudy TD totals. Cobb and driver are in the picture. If the Packers ever realize they have a guy that is capable of doing Jimmy graham-like damage to teams, that would temper his output too.

good to see people are still overrating finley.

Finley doesn't take the game serious enough to cash in on the potential. He works not on fundamentals like running routes correctly, and being where he's supposed to be. Add in the rock hands and he's got the trifecta of an under achiever.That being said, Jordy Nelson's season was magical and I think he played over his head. Jennings is Jennings, and will always get his, but I see Randall Cobb taking a major step forward, not enough to unseat Jordy Nelson, but enough to diminish his stats to the point where Nelson ends up being over drafted.70-980-8

 

[football fan]

Being a packer homer, I know that the Packers don't favor a receiver, but throw to who is open, and Jordy is an interesting match up for opposing defenses, so I can see Jordy getting more opportunities with an expanded role and route tree.

I agree with the optimistic view when estimating Jordy's 2012 numbers because this note come from under Jordy's player news on the My Fantasyleague website, and a message similar to this has been reported by other sites also:

Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy wants to feature WR Jordy Nelson more in 2012. Despite starting just nine games last season, Nelson led the team in several receiving categories, including catches (68), yards (1,263), yards per catch (18.6) and touchdowns (15). 'Jordy is a perfect example of a guy who was given more opportunities last year and performed outstanding,' McCarthy said. 'We'll keep moving him around, probably play him in the slot a little more than he's played in the past. Those are the kind of things we continue to look at, give him more matchups, expand his route tree where he's maybe more of the focus.'

Projecting:

Rec Yards TDs Targets

75 1390 17 104

Which is about a 10% increase from last year's numbers.

 

[eakfootball]

72 catches 1123 yards 8 TDs

 

[fightingillini]

I like Jordy Nelson this season. You know Rodgers is going to pass for 4500+ yards. Sure, he likes to spread the ball around, but Finley underachieving should give more opportunities to Nelson, who has shown to produce when the ball gets thrown to him. May be a little inconsistent to my liking for a strong #2WR, but he can carry you to a win in a given week. Price is pretty steep at an ADP of WR13, because I am not sure that he has the upside to be a top 5 or so WR. At that ADP, I want my WR to to carry that type of upside or be a very consistent performer. Nelson likely won't catch enough passes to be a top 5-7 WR, so he needs the TDs to become a top 5-7 WR, and we all knows TDs are volatile.

75 rec, 1075 yds, 8 TD

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Being a packer homer, I know that the Packers don't favor a receiver, but throw to who is open, and Jordy is an interesting match up for opposing defenses, so I can see Jordy getting more opportunities with an expanded role and route tree.I agree with the optimistic view when estimating Jordy's 2012 numbers because this note come from under Jordy's player news on the My Fantasyleague website, and a message similar to this has been reported by other sites also: Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy wants to feature WR Jordy Nelson more in 2012. Despite starting just nine games last season, Nelson led the team in several receiving categories, including catches (68), yards (1,263), yards per catch (18.6) and touchdowns (15). 'Jordy is a perfect example of a guy who was given more opportunities last year and performed outstanding,' McCarthy said. 'We'll keep moving him around, probably play him in the slot a little more than he's played in the past. Those are the kind of things we continue to look at, give him more matchups, expand his route tree where he's maybe more of the focus.'Projecting:Rec Yards TDs Targets75 1390 17 104 Which is about a 10% increase from last year's numbers.

17 TDs on 104 targets....you must be joking right? If you're going to go out on a limb with those numbers...give Jordy 150 targets.

 

[Grahamburn]

Projecting:Rec Yards TDs Targets75 1390 17 104 Which is about a 10% increase from last year's numbers.

Whoa.

 

[matttyl]

17 TDs on 104 targets....you must be joking right? If you're going to go out on a limb with those numbers...give Jordy 150 targets.

To be fair, he did have 15 TDs on 94 targets last year - 16%. 17 on 104 would be roughly the same.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

17 TDs on 104 targets....you must be joking right? If you're going to go out on a limb with those numbers...give Jordy 150 targets.

To be fair, he did have 15 TDs on 94 targets last year - 16%. 17 on 104 would be roughly the same.

Are you really going to debate this?-17 Tds or more in a single season has happened 13 times in the history of the NFL.-It's happened 3 times since 2000: 2003 Randy Moss, 2007 Randy Moss, 2011 Rob GronkowskiHow many Targets?(I can only look up 2008 and beyond in MFL.)Here's every single player over 12 TDs:Calvin Johnson had 16 TDs in 2011 and needed 158 targetsRob Gronkowski had 17 TDs in 2011 and needed 124 targetsDwayne Bowe had 15 TDs in 2010 and needed 133 targetsRandy Moss had 13 TDs in 2009 and needed 138 targetsLarry Fitzgerald had 13 TDs in 2009 and needed 153 targetsVernon Davis had 13 TDs in 2009 and needed 129 targetsCalvin Johnson had 12 TDs in 2010 and needed 137 targetsGreg Jennings had 12 TDs in 2010 and needed 124 targetsCalvin Johnson had 12 TDs in 2008 and needed 151 targetsLarry Fitzgerald had 12 TDs in 2008 and needed 154 targetsThen you have Jordy Nelson in 2010, 15 TDs on 94 targets. I wonder where the outlier is here

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I think Cobb is going to cut into everybodies targets earlier than many expect. He's simply too explosive, too much of a mismatch in the slot with the other weapons the Packers have on the field, not to demand targets.

This doesn't necessarily mean too much for Nelson, as he's a mismatch as well. But it could, and its worth discussing more in depth than it has been so far from what I read.

 

[imagroid]

who cares....how many 5K passers did we have in the history of the NFL before last season? And what's wrong with outliers? Sometimes they are indicative of actual skill. Likely he won't hit 17 TD's, but it's not an impossibility, and quite frankly nice to see with all the "hedging" going on around here.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

who cares....how many 5K passers did we have in the history of the NFL before last season? And what's wrong with outliers? Sometimes they are indicative of actual skill. Likely he won't hit 17 TD's, but it's not an impossibility, and quite frankly nice to see with all the "hedging" going on around here.

I present factsYou present opinionsGood luck in life

 

[rizzler]

who cares....how many 5K passers did we have in the history of the NFL before last season? And what's wrong with outliers? Sometimes they are indicative of actual skill. Likely he won't hit 17 TD's, but it's not an impossibility, and quite frankly nice to see with all the "hedging" going on around here.

I present factsYou present opinionsGood luck in life

An interesting stat would be to see how many TDs players who scored 15+ got the following year.Im far too lazy to look.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

who cares....how many 5K passers did we have in the history of the NFL before last season? And what's wrong with outliers? Sometimes they are indicative of actual skill. Likely he won't hit 17 TD's, but it's not an impossibility, and quite frankly nice to see with all the "hedging" going on around here.

I present factsYou present opinionsGood luck in life

An interesting stat would be to see how many TDs players who scored 15+ got the following year.Im far too lazy to look.

Looking at the list, only Calvin and Fitz did when accounting for 12 or more.Again rare company, even when not looking at targets.

 

[imagroid]

who cares....how many 5K passers did we have in the history of the NFL before last season? And what's wrong with outliers? Sometimes they are indicative of actual skill. Likely he won't hit 17 TD's, but it's not an impossibility, and quite frankly nice to see with all the "hedging" going on around here.

I present factsYou present opinionsGood luck in life

you present historical facts that don't necessarily cement the futurethanks for the well wishes

 

[SWC]

i hope they line up cobber the touchdown robber in mysterious ways like out of the backfield for a post route and crazy stuff like that that no one in the universe would ever see coming except god because he sees everything and then bam he runs for a td and tebows at the end take that to the bank brohans from cheesanistan

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

17 TDs on 104 targets....you must be joking right? If you're going to go out on a limb with those numbers...give Jordy 150 targets.

To be fair, he did have 15 TDs on 94 targets last year - 16%. 17 on 104 would be roughly the same.

Are you really going to debate this?-17 Tds or more in a single season has happened 13 times in the history of the NFL.-It's happened 3 times since 2000: 2003 Randy Moss, 2007 Randy Moss, 2011 Rob GronkowskiHow many Targets?(I can only look up 2008 and beyond in MFL.)Here's every single player over 12 TDs:Calvin Johnson had 16 TDs in 2011 and needed 158 targetsRob Gronkowski had 17 TDs in 2011 and needed 124 targetsDwayne Bowe had 15 TDs in 2010 and needed 133 targetsRandy Moss had 13 TDs in 2009 and needed 138 targetsLarry Fitzgerald had 13 TDs in 2009 and needed 153 targetsVernon Davis had 13 TDs in 2009 and needed 129 targetsCalvin Johnson had 12 TDs in 2010 and needed 137 targetsGreg Jennings had 12 TDs in 2010 and needed 124 targetsCalvin Johnson had 12 TDs in 2008 and needed 151 targetsLarry Fitzgerald had 12 TDs in 2008 and needed 154 targetsThen you have Jordy Nelson in 2010, 15 TDs on 94 targets. I wonder where the outlier is here

This. I'm a lifelong packer fan, but to even project a 0% decrease in production is optimistic. Projecting a 10% increase is beyond insanity. Anyone, especially a packer fan knows that Nelson's numbers are not going to be repeated. Those games where he had no catches going into the second half, then breaks off a 94 yard TD to save his fantasy day are luck. Him blowing up for 280 yards and 5 TD's in weeks 16 and 17 are not going to be the norm. His catches/target ratio was unreal. It's time to temper expectations. Lets remember that prior to 2011 Nelson had a hard time fighting off James freaking Jones, and never racked up 600 yards in a season. He's closer to 70-1000-7 than he is repeating last years numbers. The only sure thing in the passing attack is Greg Jennings. Beyond him, Finley is injury prone/rocks for hands and brains.Nelson has a year of great production, although he's always had his share of drops.Beyond that, I see Randall Cobb taking over and eliminating the rotation of he, Jones, and Driver that we saw last year. I also see Cobb producing nearly 1000 yards in the passing game, which is going to effect Nelson's totals.I think we may be too quick to try and jump on the next big thing. I'd love to be wrong and have Nelson go off again in 2012, but it's not realistic. He's a good WR. Not great.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

i hope they line up cobber the touchdown robber in mysterious ways like out of the backfield for a post route and crazy stuff like that that no one in the universe would ever see coming except god because he sees everything and then bam he runs for a td and tebows at the end take that to the bank brohans from cheesanistan

No idea what's going on here, but I think I like it.

 

[FF Ninja]

Jordy Nelson plays for the best QB in the game, on an offense that seems to be reliant on the pass (especially if they don't re-sign Grant), and had a "break-out" year (although it was in his 4th year, and not the "magical" 3rd year). Expectations are likely sky-high for him. I believe those expectations may need to be tempered, however.

Over his time as a starter, Rodgers has targeted his top-2 WRs between 210-230 total times, but as his other WRs (Nelson, Jones, Cobb) & Finley have developed, he's been closer to the 210 mark than the 230.

I see GB having to pass more this year (questions at RB), so let's bump the targets for the WR1 & WR2 to the 230 mark.

Jennings is still, IMO, the WR1, but let's split those targets equally, 115 for him, 115 for Nelson.

Nelson has averaged a 67% catch rate throughout his career, so let's give him 77 catches.

Last year, Nelson averaged almost 19 yards/catch (18.6). Prior to last season, he averaged 12.7 ypc. That's a substantial jump. It's reasonable to expect that number to return closer to his career average. Let's say 15 ypc.

His TD total last year was also significantly higher than his previous years. He had 15 TDs in 2011, while he averaged 2/year prior to that. Rodgers threw for 45 TDs last year. I don't expect Rodgers to throw quite as many this season, and 5 of Nelson's TDs came at the end of the year when Jennings was out (and his targerts jumped from 5/game to 9/game). It's likely to expect that TD total to drop in 2012.

So here are my projections:

115 targets, 77 receptions (67% catch rate), 15 ypc, 1155 yards, 8 TDs. That MIGHT sneak him into the bottom of the top-10 FF WRs.

I think you have to look at more than just past history and taking averages, though I think your projection is decent. Nelson broke out in a big way last year, and there are indications that GB wants to use him even more this year. Here's a snippet from RotoWorld:

Coach Mike McCarthy plans to expand Jordy Nelson's route tree, including more snaps in the slot.

McCarthy plans to make Nelson "more of the focus" by taking advantage of matchups. "It's more about having the opportunity," said McCarthy, "because statistics speak for themselves."

We hear this kind of stuff every year. I'm sure they'd like to use him more, but if he draws more coverage then Rodgers is going to throw it to whoever is open - maybe Cobber the touchdown robber. I like Bayhawks projection and analysis on this one. I can't think of anything to add. Jordy Nelson won't be on any of my teams next year. Not for the price of WR10 anyway...Keep up the good work SWC

 

[nlgb1]

78 1420 13tds

I dont think people realize that this guy is going to be a household name in a few years.

I also dont think people realize that this isnt just some white dude playing receiver... lets look at a comparison:

Julio Jones - 6'3" 220 4.39 College bests (Alabama) = 78 1133 8tds

Jordy Nelson - 6'3" 217 4.45 College bests (Kansas St) = 122 1606 11tds

This is a prototypical receiver. And people just arent seeing it for some reason. The guy goes out and puts up 15tds last year, (surprise surprise a stud wr with great size gets a ton of TDs playing with rodgers) and people label it a fluke. not to mention people are using his low targets as a NEGATIVE against him? 15 tds and 1300 yds on only 94 targets and thats a bad thing? im confused.

Go ahead and let the opportunity to get this guy low pass you by. you will regret it when hes going in the early 2nd next year. I really dont mind though, because i can go RB-RB and still get my top 5 WR in the MID-LATE 3RD?!?!?!

Also, a hypothetical if you will.... If Julio Jones goes out and puts up those same numbers that Nelson did last year... where is he being taken? oh ya thats right... borderline 1st round. but instead, cut the dreads off, paint him white, and call him a kansas st kid rather than a Alabama alum and BAM... value plummets. OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLE

p.s. can we please quit it with this Randall Cobb baloney? i LOVE cobb, and hes the PERFECT addition for this offense and special teams, but hes still only the 3rd most dynamic receiver on this team. he will be a great, versatile option that will sniff 700 maybe 800 total yds (rushing/passing) tops.

 

[tombonneau]

78 1420 13tdsI dont think people realize that this guy is going to be a household name in a few years. I also dont think people realize that this isnt just some white dude playing receiver... lets look at a comparison: Julio Jones - 6'3" 220 4.39 College bests (Alabama) = 78 1133 8tdsJordy Nelson - 6'3" 217 4.45 College bests (Kansas St) = 122 1606 11tdsThis is a prototypical receiver. And people just arent seeing it for some reason. The guy goes out and puts up 15tds last year, (surprise surprise a stud wr with great size gets a ton of TDs playing with rodgers) and people label it a fluke. not to mention people are using his low targets as a NEGATIVE against him? 15 tds and 1300 yds on only 94 targets and thats a bad thing? im confused. Go ahead and let the opportunity to get this guy low pass you by. you will regret it when hes going in the early 2nd next year. I really dont mind though, because i can go RB-RB and still get my top 5 WR in the MID-LATE 3RD?!?!?!Also, a hypothetical if you will.... If Julio Jones goes out and puts up those same numbers that Nelson did last year... where is he being taken? oh ya thats right... borderline 1st round. but instead, cut the dreads off, paint him white, and call him a kansas st kid rather than a Alabama alum and BAM... value plummets. OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLEp.s. can we please quit it with this Randall Cobb baloney? i LOVE cobb, and hes the PERFECT addition for this offense and special teams, but hes still only the 3rd most dynamic receiver on this team. he will be a great, versatile option that will sniff 700 maybe 800 total yds (rushing/passing) tops.

I was driving the Jordy Nelson bandwagon last year and ironically enough traded Julio Jones to get him early in the season. But I think what everyone points to in targets is that you can't expect that sort of gaudy production per target ratio to continue, with the assumption that the number of targets is a much more predictable metric than what someone does with that target. The big thing of course being the TD total which is the most mutable and aleatory statistics in fantasy football.Or maybe you're right, maybe last year was Nelson's true baseline (minus a few less TDs) and not a career year in which case he is a steal at his ADP.

 

[whatadai]

78 1420 13tdsI dont think people realize that this guy is going to be a household name in a few years. I also dont think people realize that this isnt just some white dude playing receiver... lets look at a comparison: Julio Jones - 6'3" 220 4.39 College bests (Alabama) = 78 1133 8tdsJordy Nelson - 6'3" 217 4.45 College bests (Kansas St) = 122 1606 11tdsThis is a prototypical receiver. And people just arent seeing it for some reason. The guy goes out and puts up 15tds last year, (surprise surprise a stud wr with great size gets a ton of TDs playing with rodgers) and people label it a fluke. not to mention people are using his low targets as a NEGATIVE against him? 15 tds and 1300 yds on only 94 targets and thats a bad thing? im confused. Go ahead and let the opportunity to get this guy low pass you by. you will regret it when hes going in the early 2nd next year. I really dont mind though, because i can go RB-RB and still get my top 5 WR in the MID-LATE 3RD?!?!?!Also, a hypothetical if you will.... If Julio Jones goes out and puts up those same numbers that Nelson did last year... where is he being taken? oh ya thats right... borderline 1st round. but instead, cut the dreads off, paint him white, and call him a kansas st kid rather than a Alabama alum and BAM... value plummets. OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLEp.s. can we please quit it with this Randall Cobb baloney? i LOVE cobb, and hes the PERFECT addition for this offense and special teams, but hes still only the 3rd most dynamic receiver on this team. he will be a great, versatile option that will sniff 700 maybe 800 total yds (rushing/passing) tops.

I was driving the Jordy Nelson bandwagon last year and ironically enough traded Julio Jones to get him early in the season. But I think what everyone points to in targets is that you can't expect that sort of gaudy production per target ratio to continue, with the assumption that the number of targets is a much more predictable metric than what someone does with that target. The big thing of course being the TD total which is the most mutable and aleatory statistics in fantasy football.Or maybe you're right, maybe last year was Nelson's true baseline (minus a few less TDs) and not a career year in which case he is a steal at his ADP.

You overpaid for Nelson. I traded TB WR Mike Williams for Nelson and what turned out to be the 3rd overall rookie pick this year. I also traded up and picked Julio Jones last year.This is with the assumption that you're in a dynasty...I don't see why people play redrafts anymore.

 

[nlgb1]

78 1420 13tdsI dont think people realize that this guy is going to be a household name in a few years. I also dont think people realize that this isnt just some white dude playing receiver... lets look at a comparison: Julio Jones - 6'3" 220 4.39 College bests (Alabama) = 78 1133 8tdsJordy Nelson - 6'3" 217 4.45 College bests (Kansas St) = 122 1606 11tdsThis is a prototypical receiver. And people just arent seeing it for some reason. The guy goes out and puts up 15tds last year, (surprise surprise a stud wr with great size gets a ton of TDs playing with rodgers) and people label it a fluke. not to mention people are using his low targets as a NEGATIVE against him? 15 tds and 1300 yds on only 94 targets and thats a bad thing? im confused. Go ahead and let the opportunity to get this guy low pass you by. you will regret it when hes going in the early 2nd next year. I really dont mind though, because i can go RB-RB and still get my top 5 WR in the MID-LATE 3RD?!?!?!Also, a hypothetical if you will.... If Julio Jones goes out and puts up those same numbers that Nelson did last year... where is he being taken? oh ya thats right... borderline 1st round. but instead, cut the dreads off, paint him white, and call him a kansas st kid rather than a Alabama alum and BAM... value plummets. OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLEp.s. can we please quit it with this Randall Cobb baloney? i LOVE cobb, and hes the PERFECT addition for this offense and special teams, but hes still only the 3rd most dynamic receiver on this team. he will be a great, versatile option that will sniff 700 maybe 800 total yds (rushing/passing) tops.

I was driving the Jordy Nelson bandwagon last year and ironically enough traded Julio Jones to get him early in the season. But I think what everyone points to in targets is that you can't expect that sort of gaudy production per target ratio to continue, with the assumption that the number of targets is a much more predictable metric than what someone does with that target. The big thing of course being the TD total which is the most mutable and aleatory statistics in fantasy football.Or maybe you're right, maybe last year was Nelson's true baseline (minus a few less TDs) and not a career year in which case he is a steal at his ADP.

right, but i am assuming that due to such an incredible season, he will only stand to get more opportunities. i think this is a fair assumption. so more targets, im guessing somewhere between 105-120, equals a similar great year. its just too bad there hasnt been any confirmation from the coaching staff of this theory. oh wait..."Jordy is a perfect example of a guy who was given more opportunities last year and performed outstanding,' McCarthy said. 'We'll keep moving him around, probably play him in the slot a little more than he's played in the past. Those are the kind of things we continue to look at, give him more matchups, expand his route tree where he's maybe more of the focus."http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82804171/article/mccarthy-wants-nelson-even-more-involved-in-packers-offense

 

[tombonneau]

You overpaid for Nelson. I traded TB WR Mike Williams for Nelson and what turned out to be the 3rd overall rookie pick this year. I also traded up and picked Julio Jones last year.This is with the assumption that you're in a dynasty...I don't see why people play redrafts anymore.

It was redraft. Sorry my fantasy choices do not hold up to your rigid standards.

 

[baconisgood]

I sorted players with 75 or fewer catches with 12+ TDs, ages 23-39 since 1980. Of the 15 hits I would say 6-8 of them had disappointing careers, two (Bowe, Nelson) we don't know about yet. So a 50/50 chance of looking back on Nelson's career as being acceptable given his performance last season, which is an assessment I can live with.

 

[kutta]

I sorted players with 75 or fewer catches with 12+ TDs, ages 23-39 since 1980. Of the 15 hits I would say 6-8 of them had disappointing careers, two (Bowe, Nelson) we don't know about yet. So a 50/50 chance of looking back on Nelson's career as being acceptable given his performance last season, which is an assessment I can live with.

I appreciate the effort, but this really doesn't mean much.

 

[DexterDew]

i am higher on Jordy than most and think he will be a steal in redrafts if he slips into the fourth. i wrote this in an old Jordy Nelson thread that got bumped:

Seriously, still think he is a little undervalued by some because of the "too many mouths to feed" argument. With a 70% catch rate three years in a row and Coach Speak talking about using him more... if his targets go up just one a game from 6 to 7 (96 to 112), then we are talking over 78 receptions. Even with the inevitable "regression to the mean" of his TD rate, I can see 10 TDs at a minimum.

The biggest threat would be an emerging Cobb and if Finley were to focus (60% catch rate does not cut it). Still waiting for Jones to go somewhere where he will be appreciated, and Driver is still hanging around... but I think we can all agree that Jordy has emerged as the #2 in the pecking order for a potent passing offense.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=564383&st=50

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

this guys is not a sleeper anymore because everyone saw him light up the sky of lambeau with blazing colors last year but he still gets single coverage because he is not named jennings or jerrmichael and i think he can take most anyone one on one because he has the moves like jagger with crazy swivel hips and the ability to burn right past a slowpoke joke and just take a look at the bad secondaries that the pack plays thorugh the middle of the year brohans so i think he will get about 1100 yards and 10 tds not as high as last year but still pretty good abd now teams see him coming which will probably mean a huge year for cobber the touchdown robber which is my nickname for him my nickname for jordy is the flying burrito because kansas has some good mexican restaurants take it to the bank brohans and you heard it here first

I just loved this post Love your style SWC, keep doing what you're doing

 

[Shutout]

No way he repeats the Gaudy TD totals. Cobb and driver are in the picture. If the Packers ever realize they have a guy that is capable of doing Jimmy graham-like damage to teams, that would temper his output too.

good to see people are still overrating finley.Jordy nelson will represent value, extreme value still, Greg Jennings like production a whole 2 rounds later

Good to see people are bailing on him too soon.Finley is one of about 2-3 TEs in this league not named gronk or Graham that could legitimately have everyone buzzing about him the same way people have buzzed over gronk and Gates, etc, the past few years.In fantasy, situation is half the equation. Peyton manning made Dallas clark look unstoppable. Made Jacob tamme look like a Dallas Clark clone. People almost universally aknowledge Rodgers as the best in the game, surrounded by more weapons than you can shake a stick at. Finley is constantly doubled. That suggests that the real NFL tends to agree with his higher level of talent than folks such as yourself. Jennings is good. Jordy is dangerous and now "known". Cobb is dangerous. All it will take is for Finley to get a bit more focussed and for Green Bay to look at how rediculously easy guys in New Orleans and New England can create mismatches and finley will part of the hallowed trinity. Discount him if you wish, but I'm sure it won't be the first time someone bailed out on a guy a season too soon just because he didn't meet someone's expectations when he was 24 or frustrated a fantasy owner.

 

[tombonneau]

Can we please not infect this thread with Finleyism.

 

[whatadai]

No way he repeats the Gaudy TD totals. Cobb and driver are in the picture. If the Packers ever realize they have a guy that is capable of doing Jimmy graham-like damage to teams, that would temper his output too.

good to see people are still overrating finley.Jordy nelson will represent value, extreme value still, Greg Jennings like production a whole 2 rounds later

Good to see people are bailing on him too soon.Finley is one of about 2-3 TEs in this league not named gronk or Graham that could legitimately have everyone buzzing about him the same way people have buzzed over gronk and Gates, etc, the past few years.In fantasy, situation is half the equation. Peyton manning made Dallas clark look unstoppable. Made Jacob tamme look like a Dallas Clark clone. People almost universally aknowledge Rodgers as the best in the game, surrounded by more weapons than you can shake a stick at. Finley is constantly doubled. That suggests that the real NFL tends to agree with his higher level of talent than folks such as yourself. Jennings is good. Jordy is dangerous and now "known". Cobb is dangerous. All it will take is for Finley to get a bit more focussed and for Green Bay to look at how rediculously easy guys in New Orleans and New England can create mismatches and finley will part of the hallowed trinity. Discount him if you wish, but I'm sure it won't be the first time someone bailed out on a guy a season too soon just because he didn't meet someone's expectations when he was 24 or frustrated a fantasy owner.

You make no sense...you're telling us to bail on a guy who actually did something last year because of a guy who didn't do anything last year. Then you go and tell people not to bail on guys too soon. WHAT?

 

[HughHoney]

cobber the touchdown robber which is my nickname for him my nickname for jordy is the flying burrito because kansas has some good mexican restaurants take it to the bank brohans and you heard it here first

 

[nlgb1]

Green Bay - If wide receiver Jordy Nelson hasn't been the best player on the Green Bay Packers' practice field the last two weeks there certainly haven't been many better.Beginning his fifth season, Nelson's inexorable march into the upper reaches of his profession has been on display daily at Nitschke Field."Wow!" wide receivers coach Edgar Bennett said Tuesday. "This guy just continues to improve. He is an elite receiver."Nelson's sterling work in the one-on-one Monday night typified his level of performance.Nelson drove inside against tight coverage by Davon House and then burst back to the corner, leaving the talented cornerback in his wake for what would have been a long touchdown pass.When House pressed him at the line on their next matchup, Nelson backed him off, stopped quickly and came back down the route stem for a 7-yard reception."He has those three 'S' words: size strength and speed," said Bennett. "This guy is a difference-maker."You know, it's easy to say something like that. But when you watch the guy work and what he puts into it, then you can see it."Now we have to get to the games and let the games speak for themselves."Entering training camp, Nelson was ranked 19th among wide receivers by Pro Football Weekly. His grade was the same as Dallas' Dez Bryant, Atlanta's Julio Jones, Buffalo's Stevie Johnson, Philadelphia's Jeremy Maclin and Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown."He's been outstanding," offensive coordinator Tom Clements said. "He's a great player."Nelson and James Jones have the fewest dropped passes among wide receivers in camp, according to Bennett.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/nelson-shines-in-camp-ac6de4u-165372066.html

 

[Sweetness_34]

Green Bay - If wide receiver Jordy Nelson hasn't been the best player on the Green Bay Packers' practice field the last two weeks there certainly haven't been many better.Beginning his fifth season, Nelson's inexorable march into the upper reaches of his profession has been on display daily at Nitschke Field."Wow!" wide receivers coach Edgar Bennett said Tuesday. "This guy just continues to improve. He is an elite receiver."Nelson's sterling work in the one-on-one Monday night typified his level of performance.Nelson drove inside against tight coverage by Davon House and then burst back to the corner, leaving the talented cornerback in his wake for what would have been a long touchdown pass.When House pressed him at the line on their next matchup, Nelson backed him off, stopped quickly and came back down the route stem for a 7-yard reception."He has those three 'S' words: size strength and speed," said Bennett. "This guy is a difference-maker."You know, it's easy to say something like that. But when you watch the guy work and what he puts into it, then you can see it."Now we have to get to the games and let the games speak for themselves."Entering training camp, Nelson was ranked 19th among wide receivers by Pro Football Weekly. His grade was the same as Dallas' Dez Bryant, Atlanta's Julio Jones, Buffalo's Stevie Johnson, Philadelphia's Jeremy Maclin and Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown."He's been outstanding," offensive coordinator Tom Clements said. "He's a great player."Nelson and James Jones have the fewest dropped passes among wide receivers in camp, according to Bennett.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/nelson-shines-in-camp-ac6de4u-165372066.html

I am a Nelson backer ... I picked him today at 2.12 in my ffpc draft as my #1 WR (over Roddy White).....but I am always skeptically of camp reports especially since the Pack Pass D is garbage.

 

[griff321]

Here's my take on The Flying Burrito, I think his TD totals go down but his receptions go up. The real problem for TFB is going to be the feast or famine days. I'm sure they're going to lean on some rook CB that drew TFB all game and then maybe lean on LBs covering The Cobber TD Robber and Fin or just a terrible secondary like my vikes and lean on everyone. I think everyone is discounting the lack of attention he'll draw and his QBs laser like precision. 80 rec 1250 yards 8 TDs.

It's pretty hard to talk history when history hasn't really seen a team like this with so many parts in their prime and healthy. Then you have new rules that give these guys a different playing field. Either take advantage or be left crying by the wayside.

 

[Tango]

Everybody knows Nelson's snap % was very low for WR1 last year; esp for someone who was never injured

...so what was the percentage of the time he was targeted when he was on the field?

I assume Nelson was the highest on the team for that stat and among the highest in the league.

If the above assertion is true and if we all assume his snap % will rise markedly, Rodgers' apparent disproportional affection for Nelson should translate into a top WR1 stat line; even when taking into account that he may have drawn man-up last year more often/luck/and any other factor.

 

[meyerj31]

Nothing on Nelson's performance last night?

On the first drive he blew by Joe Haden for a wide open TD opportunity. Haden wasn't within 7 yards of him. Rodgers somehow overthrew the pass.

Literally two plays later they run the same play. Haden keeps up with Nelson but Jordy jumps over him to snatch the ball.

That second play was exactly like the catch Julio had over the Ravens - everyone went nuts and Julio is number 2 in Wr rankings now ... yet nothing for the white boy.

What gives?

 

[lbouchard]

Literally two plays later they run the same play. Haden keeps up with Nelson but Jordy jumps over him to snatch the ball.That second play was exactly like the catch Julio had over the Ravens - everyone went nuts and Julio is number 2 in Wr rankings now ... yet nothing for the white boy.?

Correction-Julio did it on a backup CB (Cary Williams) while Jordy did it on a top 3 cover corner in the league (Haden)

 

[ldizzle]

Nothing on Nelson's performance last night? On the first drive he blew by Joe Haden for a wide open TD opportunity. Haden wasn't within 7 yards of him. Rodgers somehow overthrew the pass.Literally two plays later they run the same play. Haden keeps up with Nelson but Jordy jumps over him to snatch the ball.That second play was exactly like the catch Julio had over the Ravens - everyone went nuts and Julio is number 2 in Wr rankings now ... yet nothing for the white boy.What gives?

Seriously? Lets just hope it doesnt get out of control while he still has value, julio rd 1 gimme a break. I mean he only outplayed one of the best corners in the game. What happens when he goes against #2 cb's. Easy money

 

[shadyridr]

People think hes a fluke cuz hes white. Maybe the TDs are a fluke but dude is a stud. id rather have him than Jennings