Jordy Nelson (1 Viewer)

[Boccioni]

Hi everyone,

One of the core challenges of fantasy is anticipating when the numbers of elite players will start to fall off with age/injury. This question has me starting to waver when it comes to Jordy Nelson.

There are a few items that give me pause.

1. He has turned 30.

2. He had off-season hip issues.

3. He started to fade just a bit near the end of last year.

I am wondering if anyone -- homers in particular -- have any insight into whether the hip surgery is likely to affect him, how he has looked in off-season practices and the first preseason game, etc.

Thanks in advance for your perspectives.

 

[Deamon]

He's looked good from what I hear,... hasn't skipped a beat. There are some concerns, but he is still quietly a lock for a top 10, even top 5 WR. GB also wants to speed things up this year, giving him more plays, more targets, and more fantasy points.

 

[ghostguy123]

Not sure what you mean by "fade a bit" last year. Not statistically anyway.

However, yes, Jordy is a guy I also share a bit of skepticism. In redraft, I have no problem taking Jordy in the 2nd round. Although in dynasty I can understand wanting to make a move. I think he can bring in a lot of value, such as a nice young rising WR and maybe a future 1st or something. I can easily understand a move like that right now.

The hip issues do worry me also. It may not even be the injury itself, either. When guys are hitting 30 and are unable to work out HARD in the offseason, I get worried about them being able to maintain their previous level of athleticism. Sometimes all it really takes is the slightest bit of regression to notice a difference.

I think he is overvalued in dynasty based on startup ADP, and would not surprise me if he disappoints moving forward.

Would still love to own him, just not willing to pay what it costs to get him right now.

 

[Boccioni]

Thanks for the comments!

On fading in the hone stretch last year, I meant that he scored 11 or fewer points in four of his last six games in the regular season (at least in my main league).

 

[ghostguy123]

Thanks for the comments!

On fading in the hone stretch last year, I meant that he scored 11 or fewer points in four of his last six games in the regular season (at least in my main league).

I have no idea how you interpret that as "fading". He played pretty well after that scoring well.

All that was was a stretch of not scoring a lot. Something basically every player has, ever single year. Sounds like maybe for you it was just bad timing or something.

 

[bostonfred]

Second half of the season 48 catches 782 years 7 tds.

Final six games 38 catches 521 yards 4 tds.

Weeks 14-16 22 catches 314 yards 3 tds.

You pretty much have to slice the data to only include weeks 12, 13 and 17 if you want to make him look like he sled down at the end, just to include three games that aren't even that bad. 8 for 68, 2 for 53 and a td, and 6 for 86.

He might never repeat last season's numbers, but he was one of the best and most consistent receivers in the league last year.

 

[Ilov80s]

Thanks for the comments!

On fading in the hone stretch last year, I meant that he scored 11 or fewer points in four of his last six games in the regular season (at least in my main league).

I play in a non ppr league, no bonuses or anything. Jordy finished the year: 6.8, 11.3, 26.6, 5.5, 17.3, 8.6 . That is an average of 12.7. He was the #7 fantasy WR over the last 6 games which is about where he is being drafted. Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffrey and Randall Cobb had the same amount of points or less those last 6 weeks.

Here is an article that highlights the age different positions rise and fall. For WRs, age 29 and 30 seasons don't really show any difference.

 

[Freelove]

Guy's been a week-in/week-out, season-in/season-out top 5 WR from the instant he became a starter, so long as he's healthy. Looking for reasons to bet against that kind of trend is just looking for reasons to fail.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Guy's been a week-in/week-out, season-in/season-out top 5 WR from the instant he became a starter, so long as he's healthy. Looking for reasons to bet against that kind of trend is just looking for reasons to fail.

In redraft, sure. The more interesting question is dynasty. At what point do you look to move him? What value would it take to move him now?

 

[Mainevent]

Gave up 2 future 1sts (2017) plus Josh Gordon to add him to my team - team is probably top 3-4 in the league.