Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Joseph Addai Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[footballman_696969]

I was thinking that Addai would be overrated after having such a great year, but after checking PPR ADP he is at RB20 which seems low to me. It looks like he will be a good value pick once again this year. He doesn't do anything great, but he is good at everything. He is a good receiver and a trusted blocker which is important in a Peyton Manning led offense. I think Donald Brown is talented and should see an increase in touches, but he doesn't having the blocking skills that Addai has, which will limit his work this year.

Joseph Addai - 208/811/8 and 44/317/2

Donald Brown - 120/408/5 and 20//160/1

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He's the leading RB on one of the most consistant offenses in the league. He can run and catch the ball, he's a solid fantasy back. I think we saw about as good as Addai can do last season but the way things look in Indy, we could very easily have something close to a duplicated season.

920 yards with 9 td's

45 receptions for 399 yards and 3 td's

 

[Texasmouth]

I like Brown a lot but he wasnt that impressive last season so I think Addai holds on to his starting job and sniffs around 1000 yards again with 5-8 touchdowns just based on Indy's offense.

It has been said that Addai is the better blocker and picks up the blitz much better but Brown was just a rookie. Will be interesting to see if he improves on that. If he does he may be on the field a lot more.

I think the days of having ONE sole RB are pretty much over. Too much wear and tear on a back burns them up too fast and they dont have as much at the end of the season.

 

[rzrback77]

Joseph Addai is very reliable and has more trust with Peyton Manning than Donald Brown. I think that he will continue to outperform his draft position, especially in ppr leagues. Addai's current ADP is RB 20 and 46 overall. Although his ypc has been low lately (4.8 as a rookie with 226 carries in 06, but has fallen to an average of 3.67 over the past two seasons), he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. He has a career avarage catch percentage of 78% and had 51 catches last season. He finished as the RB #9 in non-ppr scoring, so in ppr he should be higher thought of.

I think that the group think of Donald Brown taking over is a long shot. It is likely that the split could be closer in 2010, but Addai will have more opportunities in the passing game regardless. Addai has three seasons where he has less than 15 rushes per game and he has still managed to finish in the top ten twice. He does that on the strength of the Colt's Offense providing him abundant scoring opportunities and his reliability as a blocker and receiver.

In his four seasons, he has scored 43 TDs in 58 career games. I don't anticipate the Colts missing a beat in 2010, so he should have ample opportunity to score.

Joseph Addai 16 gms 210 rushes (13.1 per gm) 840 yds 4.0 ypc 60 targets 50 catches 400 yds 8.0 ypc and 12 total TDs

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Joseph Addai is very reliable and has more trust with Peyton Manning than Donald Brown. I think that he will continue to outperform his draft position, especially in ppr leagues. Addai's current ADP is RB 20 and 46 overall. Although his ypc has been low lately (4.8 as a rookie with 226 carries in 06, but has fallen to an average of 3.67 over the past two seasons), he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. He has a career avarage catch percentage of 78% and had 51 catches last season. He finished as the RB #9 in non-ppr scoring, so in ppr he should be higher thought of.I think that the group think of Donald Brown taking over is a long shot. It is likely that the split could be closer in 2010, but Addai will have more opportunities in the passing game regardless. Addai has three seasons where he has less than 15 rushes per game and he has still managed to finish in the top ten twice. He does that on the strength of the Colt's Offense providing him abundant scoring opportunities and his reliability as a blocker and receiver.In his four seasons, he has scored 43 TDs in 58 career games. I don't anticipate the Colts missing a beat in 2010, so he should have ample opportunity to score.Joseph Addai 16 gms 210 rushes (13.1 per gm) 840 yds 4.0 ypc 60 targets 50 catches 400 yds 8.0 ypc and 12 total TDs

Addai seems undervalued by so many. For some reason, he is grouped with lesser RB's at a cheap price. Has a much higher floor and lower ceiling than other RBs drafted in his range. I don't think that you need to reach for Brown to secure that position, although it would be a nice to have. I'll be secretly coveting Addai a few picks below his ADP, and crossing fingers.

 

[TaxMan]

Joseph Addai is very reliable and has more trust with Peyton Manning than Donald Brown. I think that he will continue to outperform his draft position, especially in ppr leagues. Addai's current ADP is RB 20 and 46 overall. Although his ypc has been low lately (4.8 as a rookie with 226 carries in 06, but has fallen to an average of 3.67 over the past two seasons), he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. He has a career avarage catch percentage of 78% and had 51 catches last season. He finished as the RB #9 in non-ppr scoring, so in ppr he should be higher thought of.I think that the group think of Donald Brown taking over is a long shot. It is likely that the split could be closer in 2010, but Addai will have more opportunities in the passing game regardless. Addai has three seasons where he has less than 15 rushes per game and he has still managed to finish in the top ten twice. He does that on the strength of the Colt's Offense providing him abundant scoring opportunities and his reliability as a blocker and receiver.In his four seasons, he has scored 43 TDs in 58 career games. I don't anticipate the Colts missing a beat in 2010, so he should have ample opportunity to score.Joseph Addai 16 gms 210 rushes (13.1 per gm) 840 yds 4.0 ypc 60 targets 50 catches 400 yds 8.0 ypc and 12 total TDs

Actually the group think is that Addai will hold off Brown in 2010

 

[Go deep]

Im going to go out on a limb and predict an injury to Addai this year.

10 GP, 112 carries, 439 yards, 2 TD's, 19 rec. 130 yards

 

[Thomsen]

Don't think his role changes much, and remember he really only played 14 full games last season. A couple of more carries and about the same receptions.

225 carries for 855 y. 50 rec. 350 yards. 10 total TDs.

He should be good value.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Im going to go out on a limb and predict an injury to Addai this year.10 GP, 112 carries, 439 yards, 2 TD's, 19 rec. 130 yards

Interesting. I'd love to predict injuries too. Especially to division rival teams. But since I don't have a medical crystal ball, let's assume you hit on your prediction. What do you project for Brown in this scenario?

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Don't think his role changes much, and remember he really only played 14 full games last season. A couple of more carries and about the same receptions.225 carries for 855 y. 50 rec. 350 yards. 10 total TDs. He should be good value.

+1He's Matt Forte plus a few more TD opportunities. Decent value in non-ppr, great value in ppr.

 

[Go deep]

Im going to go out on a limb and predict an injury to Addai this year.10 GP, 112 carries, 439 yards, 2 TD's, 19 rec. 130 yards

Interesting. I'd love to predict injuries too. Especially to division rival teams. But since I don't have a medical crystal ball, let's assume you hit on your prediction. What do you project for Brown in this scenario?

You dont have a medical crystal ball, but you have a statistical crystal ball that will allow you to predict his numbers? These projections are all guesses, and i probably have just as good as a shot at predicting an injury as i do statistics.I expect things to look similar to last year with Brown playing 2nd fiddle as he learns to pass block and continues to learn the offense. As the season goes on, i think he will get a bigger piece of the pie as he proves to be the better runner. After Addai gets hurt, Brown and the Colts running game will take off.Brown 224 carries, 1023 yards, 9 TD's, 26 rec. 258 yards, 1 TD

 

[smackdaddies]

220 rushes/800 yards, 40 recpt/ 250 yards, 10tds

Love to draft him as a rb3, not so sure as a 1/2. Great value last year as too many people overvalued Brown. A great anarchy league tp guy, not someone I love so much in a hth league if I am depending on him as a 1/2 rb.

Definately someone to watch for falling down the board and getting good value like last year.

 

[mjr]

Seems to me that Brown does a lot more with a lot less involvement, which to me isn't the sign of a future feature back.

His average yardage in both carries and catches drops off with an increase in touches. He had only 2 carries in his most productive ground game of the season (58 yards), while his production consistently trends downwards with an increase in carries:

6.4 avg. on 4 touches

5.4 avg. on 5 touches

3.6 avg. on 9 touches.

3.0 avg. on 11 touches.

2.8 avg. on 14 touches.

1.4 avg. on 15 touches.

He's not going to improve these numbers by learning how to better block defenders, and while I'd be the first to admit that Addai's YPC averages are somewhat mediocre, he can at least maintain a level of production with more or less carries.

I really don't see any roles changing in the Colts' backfield either this year or next, short of an Addai injury or a complete 180 turnaround in Brown's stamina and relative performance level. I even think if Brown continues this trend that the Colts might consider bringing in another back who can compete for the starting gig.

Just my 2 cents.....

 

[az_prof]

If neither he or Brown gets injured, I project the split this year to be 50/50. Last year they had around 300 carries total:

So,

150 carries, 4.0 ypc (I think this will improve slightly) 600 yards rushing

They combined for 60 receptions so half of them:

30 receptions at 8.0 ypr 240 receiving yards

And 8 TDs

This is about what I expect for both Brown and Addai

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

I do not believe Brown is a feature RB. RBs are so cheap and disposable in the NFL (compared to other positions) that when they have a chance to impress, they need to grab it by the horns. Brown didn't do that last year, and that leaves Indy in a precarious position. Do they re-sign Addai? Depends on the year he has. If Addai wimps out of a few games like he has in the past, he's gone and the Colts go back to the draft for his replacement. But if Addai impresses like he did last year, I'll bet he cashes in with Indy.

Either way, it's my opinion that Brown is not the answer. More importantly, he's being waaaay overvalued right now in ff drafts.

 

[thecardiackid]

Addai is the Rodney Dangerfield of FF.

He finished as RB 7 in my PPR league last year, after several years of solid production in the IND offensive machine. And he missed 2+ games.

Is he a dynasty building block @ this point? Of course not. But for a contender needing RB help or in redraft leagues, he's (yet again) undervalued - at least for 2010.

215/950/9 and 45/350/2

I really don't see a team that was in the SB last year chaning much w/ the offense, and D Brown might be a decent talent down the road (after IND lets Addai go the way of Edge when his contract demands don't make sense).

Solid (PPR) RB2 w/ great ADP value this year - yet again.

 

[Yitbos69]

Im going to go out on a limb and predict an injury to Addai this year.10 GP, 112 carries, 439 yards, 2 TD's, 19 rec. 130 yards

Interesting. I'd love to predict injuries too. Especially to division rival teams. But since I don't have a medical crystal ball, let's assume you hit on your prediction. What do you project for Brown in this scenario?

You dont have a medical crystal ball, but you have a statistical crystal ball that will allow you to predict his numbers? These projections are all guesses, and i probably have just as good as a shot at predicting an injury as i do statistics.I expect things to look similar to last year with Brown playing 2nd fiddle as he learns to pass block and continues to learn the offense. As the season goes on, i think he will get a bigger piece of the pie as he proves to be the better runner. After Addai gets hurt, Brown and the Colts running game will take off.Brown 224 carries, 1023 yards, 9 TD's, 26 rec. 258 yards, 1 TD

Is this based on his play as a rookie or just a gut feeling you have? Brown showed nothing as a rookie to think he will avg. almost 4.6 YPC....this looks like wishful thinking on the part of a Brown owner.....Addai in 2010.......... 240/920/10 45/320/2

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Facts about addai.

He has played 4 seasons. In those 4 seasons he has 3 top 12 finishes. Thats a RB#1 in most leagues. The year he didnt finish top 12 he missed 4 games to injury,

He is not injury prone, 4 misses games in 4 years is pretty standard. The other games he missed is due to the colts resting their players.

Pure gold in PPR leagues and you can draft him late, again.

 

[baconisgood]

82 yards and 0.75 TDs- Addai's per game averages with the Colts. 12 pts a game standard scoring over 4 years with his worst season being 62/0.58- which = 1,000/9.3 over 16 games. If 160 pts is his floor this year he seems like a steal as a late 4th/early 5th.

 

[gandalas]

The one thing you may have to beware with Addai is the risk that the Colts clinch early again, and his plays are limited in week 16, which is the championship game in many leagues.

I got lucky with his 1 TD run vs the Jets in game 16 last year, and managed to win the championship.

But without that TD, his 6-40-1TD day would have possibly hurt me in that week.

I know they are trying to make it harder for teams to mail it in late in the year, but with an awesome team like the Colts, that is always a possibility.

 

[xenon]

What has Addai's ADP been in a PPR league?

 

[the spanker]

What has Addai's ADP been in a PPR league?

Fantasy Football Calaculator has his PPR ADP at 4.12:

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp_ppr.php

 

[xenon]

What has Addai's ADP been in a PPR league?

Fantasy Football Calaculator has his PPR ADP at 4.12:

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp_ppr.php

Thanks!

 

[Chase Stuart]

Addai is the Rodney Dangerfield of FF.He finished as RB 7 in my PPR league last year, after several years of solid production in the IND offensive machine. And he missed 2+ games.Is he a dynasty building block @ this point? Of course not. But for a contender needing RB help or in redraft leagues, he's (yet again) undervalued - at least for 2010.215/950/9 and 45/350/2I really don't see a team that was in the SB last year chaning much w/ the offense, and D Brown might be a decent talent down the road (after IND lets Addai go the way of Edge when his contract demands don't make sense).Solid (PPR) RB2 w/ great ADP value this year - yet again.

In 2008, Addai had an ADP of RB4, and he finished as RB39.In 2009, Addai had an ADP of RB20, and he finished as RB8.In 2010, he has an ADP of RB20. I wouldn't call him perennially undervalued.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Addai is the Rodney Dangerfield of FF.He finished as RB 7 in my PPR league last year, after several years of solid production in the IND offensive machine. And he missed 2+ games.Is he a dynasty building block @ this point? Of course not. But for a contender needing RB help or in redraft leagues, he's (yet again) undervalued - at least for 2010.215/950/9 and 45/350/2I really don't see a team that was in the SB last year chaning much w/ the offense, and D Brown might be a decent talent down the road (after IND lets Addai go the way of Edge when his contract demands don't make sense).Solid (PPR) RB2 w/ great ADP value this year - yet again.

In 2008, Addai had an ADP of RB4, and he finished as RB39.In 2009, Addai had an ADP of RB20, and he finished as RB8.In 2010, he has an ADP of RB20. I wouldn't call him perennially undervalued.

please include his first 2 seasons in the the league please. TIA

 

[az_prof]

People who say "Brown can't block" and "Peyton trusts Addai more" are living in the past. Of course Addai blocked better than a rookie and of course Peyton trusted the vet more. But Brown is a smart cookie and a hard worker, and reports on his offseason have been positive. I don't think Addai will be able to hold Brown off by virtue of his blocking in 2010 As I said above, I maintain that the split in touches will be close to 50/50 if they are equally healthy.