Joseph Addai (1 Viewer)

[switz]

I'm sitting here thinking of how many on this board have knocked Addai. I generally take give a number of posters in this forum a ton of credit for their fantasy acumen. So I felt I really needed to reexamine Addai, to see if my high expectations are well founded, or if I may be guilty of overrating him.

1. Last season Addai received 20% more carries in games 9-16 than in games 1-8, his YPC actually IMPROVED. IN the last 8 games he averaged 4.9 YPC.

2. Last season Addai averaged 5.0 YPC in games they won, when a number of his carries came in "grind out the clock" time, where the defense expected the run. Additionally, in the second half his YPC in nearly a full yard (5.2) higher than in the first half (4.3). When they were leading by 2 to 3 TDs, his YPC was 6.4, by 1 to 2 TDs 4.6, and by 1 TD or less 5.3. Impressive.

3. His highest YPC is on first down, instead of on third down where you would expect garbage yards in 3rd and long situations.

4. He has no problem running in between the tackles. In fact his lowest YPC's come on sweeps to the right side.

5. On the negative, his highest YPC came running to the left, which is where Tarik Glen played.

6. He only had 6 draw plays from the shotgun, so he didn't get his yardage on garbage plays.

What does this all mean? His perfomance was not manufactured, or elevated artificially. He's the real deal.

OK, but what about him holding up for a full year?

1. He didn't miss a game at all last season.

2. He had 10 games where he carried the ball 15+ times, including the playoffs.

3. All of his 100+ yard games came AFTER week 11, where the infamous rookie wall looms.

Well, the Colts don't run that much, so he's not going to be able to put up top RB numbers.

In 2006 there were 416 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 54.3% of the carries)

In 2005 there were 420 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 85.7% of the carries)

In 2004 there were 392 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 85.2% of the carries)

In 2003 there were 419 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 73.9% of the carries)

In 2002 there were 390 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 71.0% of the carries)

In 2001 there were 401 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 58.1% of the carries - this is the season Edge got hurt)

In 2000 there were 392 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 98.7% of the carries)

Which one of those years was the abberation? Outside of last season, when the #1 RB has been healthy he has seen a minimum of 70% of the carries. Not only that, but those 70% years were when Edge was still recovering. Once fully healthy, the #1 RB has seen a minimum of 85% of the carries.

Additionally, the lowest number of carries came the season Edge was recuperating. The carries have held strongly within the 390-420 range.

So if we "estimate" the Colts run it 405 times this coming season, and that Addai sees 85% of the carries, he will rush 344 times. That's an everage of 21.5 carries per game.

Last year he only carried the ball over 21 times twice, once at 7.7 per carry, the other time at 4.9 per carry.

Suppose he recedes to 4.5 YPC (he only failed to carry at 4.5YPC 4 times when he had over 15 carries last season) that totals 1548 yards rushing!!!!

Last season he scored on every 32 carries, which projects to 11 TDs this season.

Add in his receiving, even if he duplicates last year's numbers 325 yards and a TD, although he should improve, that's a TOTAL of 1873 yards and 12 TDs.

Or 259 points.

That puts him between #5 and #6 from last years numbers.

Remember that's WITHOUT him improving receiving numbers, and regressing in production per touch from last season. Add to that our estimate for rushing attempts is lower than each of the last two seasons, and you have to say his FLOOR is #6.

What's wrong with this thinking????????

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Whats not to like?

Dungy putting on the brakes after week 14.

 

[joffer]

not a ### #### thing

 

[jurb26]

Pretty simple for me really. It's not that I don't like Addai. I think he will be a solid fantasy RB. He is in a great offense and is with out a doubt the featured RB. However, I don't like the big downgrade at Oline (yes, I think loosing Glenn is a big blow) and I think the D is going to struggle a lot this year, especially at LB and CB. Indy added another potent weapon in the passing game with Gonzalez and I just don't see him living up to his draft position. I mean the guys has an ADP of 5th overall! Do you really think he is THAT good? I don't. I'd take him at the turn of a draft where I could soften the pick with a quick follow up guy. I just don't feel he is a good buy at 5.

Then again, with some of the recent news about Portis. You very well could double up with Addai in Rd 1 and Portis in Rd 2 as of late. That would be a pretty nice start.

 

[switz]

Whats not to like?Dungy putting on the brakes after week 14.

He didn't last year.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

He has never carried a full load, not even in college. That has to be concerning.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Whats not to like?Dungy putting on the brakes after week 14.

He didn't last year.

Addai never started in the regular season and had a solid complement in the backfield.Also I think the whole team did take it somewhat easy at the end last year.Dec 3 @Tennessee Lost 17-20 Dec 10 @Jacksonville Lost 17-44 Dec 18 Cincinnati Won 34-16 Dec 24 @Houston Lost 24-27 Dec 31 Miami Won 27-22 ...and then turned it back up in the playoffs.

 

[massraider]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real."

For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in.

I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real." For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in. I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

Week 12 vs. PHIQtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description 1 10:59 0 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 24 rushed for 9 yards 1 10:12 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN 1 1:47 7 - 0 1st-and-10 own 26 rushed for 0 yards 1 1:15 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 11 yards (first down) 1 0:26 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 25 rushed for 15 yards (first down) 2 14:59 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 10 yards TOUCHDOWN 2 13:09 14 - 0 3rd-and-1 own 49 rushed for 8 yards (first down) 2 10:58 14 - 0 3rd-and-6 opp 39 caught pass for 16 yards (first down) 2 10:28 14 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 23 rushed for 6 yards 2 9:49 14 - 0 2nd-and-4 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards 2 9:03 14 - 0 3rd-and-2 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN

I thought this was pretty special.

 

[jurb26]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real." For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in. I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

Week 12 vs. PHIQtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description 1 10:59 0 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 24 rushed for 9 yards 1 10:12 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN 1 1:47 7 - 0 1st-and-10 own 26 rushed for 0 yards 1 1:15 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 11 yards (first down) 1 0:26 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 25 rushed for 15 yards (first down) 2 14:59 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 10 yards TOUCHDOWN 2 13:09 14 - 0 3rd-and-1 own 49 rushed for 8 yards (first down) 2 10:58 14 - 0 3rd-and-6 opp 39 caught pass for 16 yards (first down) 2 10:28 14 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 23 rushed for 6 yards 2 9:49 14 - 0 2nd-and-4 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards 2 9:03 14 - 0 3rd-and-2 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN

I thought this was pretty special.

What about the other 15 games?

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

What's wrong with this thinking????????

I am also in the Addai camp, but the only beef I have with your logic is the 344 rushes as a basis. I'm basing his projection on ~300.So, 300 * 4.5 = 1350 rushing yards and about 11 TDs with 50 rec for 400 yards and 2 TDs = 253 fantasy pointsNot far from your numbers, but I think his upside is in TDs scored, not yardage derived from more carries.

 

[Da Guru]

I see 12-14 TD and 1500 total yards this year. You have to like that.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real." For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in. I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

Week 12 vs. PHIQtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description 1 10:59 0 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 24 rushed for 9 yards 1 10:12 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN 1 1:47 7 - 0 1st-and-10 own 26 rushed for 0 yards 1 1:15 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 11 yards (first down) 1 0:26 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 25 rushed for 15 yards (first down) 2 14:59 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 10 yards TOUCHDOWN 2 13:09 14 - 0 3rd-and-1 own 49 rushed for 8 yards (first down) 2 10:58 14 - 0 3rd-and-6 opp 39 caught pass for 16 yards (first down) 2 10:28 14 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 23 rushed for 6 yards 2 9:49 14 - 0 2nd-and-4 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards 2 9:03 14 - 0 3rd-and-2 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN

I thought this was pretty special.

What about the other 15 games?

I was replying to :

I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real."

not offering a season or career retrospective. If a MNF 3 TD first half isn't "special" then I'm not sure what your definition is.

 

[Family Matters]

I'm sitting here thinking of how many on this board have knocked Addai. I generally take give a number of posters in this forum a ton of credit for their fantasy acumen. So I felt I really needed to reexamine Addai, to see if my high expectations are well founded, or if I may be guilty of overrating him.

1. Last season Addai received 20% more carries in games 9-16 than in games 1-8, his YPC actually IMPROVED. IN the last 8 games he averaged 4.9 YPC.

2. Last season Addai averaged 5.0 YPC in games they won, when a number of his carries came in "grind out the clock" time, where the defense expected the run. Additionally, in the second half his YPC in nearly a full yard (5.2) higher than in the first half (4.3). When they were leading by 2 to 3 TDs, his YPC was 6.4, by 1 to 2 TDs 4.6, and by 1 TD or less 5.3. Impressive.

3. His highest YPC is on first down, instead of on third down where you would expect garbage yards in 3rd and long situations.

4. He has no problem running in between the tackles. In fact his lowest YPC's come on sweeps to the right side.

5. On the negative, his highest YPC came running to the left, which is where Tarik Glen played.

6. He only had 6 draw plays from the shotgun, so he didn't get his yardage on garbage plays.

What does this all mean? His perfomance was not manufactured, or elevated artificially. He's the real deal.

OK, but what about him holding up for a full year?

1. He didn't miss a game at all last season.

2. He had 10 games where he carried the ball 15+ times, including the playoffs.

3. All of his 100+ yard games came AFTER week 11, where the infamous rookie wall looms.

Well, the Colts don't run that much, so he's not going to be able to put up top RB numbers.

In 2006 there were 416 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 54.3% of the carries)

In 2005 there were 420 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 85.7% of the carries)

In 2004 there were 392 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 85.2% of the carries)

In 2003 there were 419 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 73.9% of the carries)

In 2002 there were 390 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 71.0% of the carries)

In 2001 there were 401 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 58.1% of the carries - this is the season Edge got hurt)

In 2000 there were 392 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 98.7% of the carries)

Which one of those years was the abberation? Outside of last season, when the #1 RB has been healthy he has seen a minimum of 70% of the carries. Not only that, but those 70% years were when Edge was still recovering. Once fully healthy, the #1 RB has seen a minimum of 85% of the carries.

Additionally, the lowest number of carries came the season Edge was recuperating. The carries have held strongly within the 390-420 range.

So if we "estimate" the Colts run it 405 times this coming season, and that Addai sees 85% of the carries, he will rush 344 times. That's an everage of 21.5 carries per game.

Last year he only carried the ball over 21 times twice, once at 7.7 per carry, the other time at 4.9 per carry.

Suppose he recedes to 4.5 YPC (he only failed to carry at 4.5YPC 4 times when he had over 15 carries last season) that totals 1548 yards rushing!!!!

Last season he scored on every 32 carries, which projects to 11 TDs this season.

Add in his receiving, even if he duplicates last year's numbers 325 yards and a TD, although he should improve, that's a TOTAL of 1873 yards and 12 TDs.

Or 259 points.

That puts him between #5 and #6 from last years numbers.

Remember that's WITHOUT him improving receiving numbers, and regressing in production per touch from last season. Add to that our estimate for rushing attempts is lower than each of the last two seasons, and you have to say his FLOOR is #6.

What's wrong with this thinking????????

First off that's one heck of a . Well thought out and supported by fact and observation. And regardless of how well you laid it out there will be nay sayers. Here's what the nay sayers have said so far in this thread:"Dungy putting on the brakes after week 14. "

You can't draft with guessing how the season plays out or you'll never draft any Indy players. But RB is the least one to worry about.

"I don't like the big downgrade at Oline ".

This is the only comment that has any potential merit. But Glenn is on the downside of his career and he's easier to replace now that he was 5 years ago. They drafted his replacement already so the change shouldn't result in much of a down grade. Besides, they run both sides.

"He has never carried a full load".

What does that mean. You can't qualify this statement. We've seen enough to know he can handle the load. Nothing has made me stop and go. "Wait, he isn't going to be able to make 1 or 5 or 10 more carries this year".

"Addai never started in the regular season and had a solid complement in the backfield".

Having a solid compliment doesn't cause a player to be more or less durable or to perform better. To suggest he didn't start is a matter of formalities. Just because NFL.com doesn't list that he started any games doesn't have any real bearing on weather or not he's capable.

"I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real." ".

If you didn't see anything that's special then you just didn't watch or you're looking for Bush type moves. I really liked what I saw. Not everyone "loos that special". For example, Emmitt Smith wasn't that "special back" in the way he ran but he did manage to run for a career record. I'll gladly take what I've seen from Addai so far.

I added my comments to the above in blue. To suggest anyone has seen something that's a negative is just refusing to see what's in front of them. There is nothing he did to get negative reviews over. His performance was outstanding. There is nothing to suggest it won't be again this year.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

regardless of how well you laid it out there will be nay sayers. Here's what the nay sayers have said so far in this thread:

"Dungy putting on the brakes after week 14. "

You can't draft with guessing how the season plays out or you'll never draft any Indy players. But RB is the least one to worry about.

Im not a nay sayer. I just answered his question. In the Addai Spotlight I gave him... 2183 yards and 18 scores.

I have seen the Colts coast at the end of the season several times.

And last year Dungy was on record as saying he wanted to take it easy on Addai, and has reiterated it again for this year.

Though Im sure it wont be nearly the same. But its a legit "whats not to like" scenario.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm sitting here thinking of how many on this board have knocked Addai. I generally take give a number of posters in this forum a ton of credit for their fantasy acumen. So I felt I really needed to reexamine Addai, to see if my high expectations are well founded, or if I may be guilty of overrating him.

1. Last season Addai received 20% more carries in games 9-16 than in games 1-8, his YPC actually IMPROVED. IN the last 8 games he averaged 4.9 YPC.

2. Last season Addai averaged 5.0 YPC in games they won, when a number of his carries came in "grind out the clock" time, where the defense expected the run. Additionally, in the second half his YPC in nearly a full yard (5.2) higher than in the first half (4.3). When they were leading by 2 to 3 TDs, his YPC was 6.4, by 1 to 2 TDs 4.6, and by 1 TD or less 5.3. Impressive.

3. His highest YPC is on first down, instead of on third down where you would expect garbage yards in 3rd and long situations.

4. He has no problem running in between the tackles. In fact his lowest YPC's come on sweeps to the right side.

5. On the negative, his highest YPC came running to the left, which is where Tarik Glen played.

6. He only had 6 draw plays from the shotgun, so he didn't get his yardage on garbage plays.

What does this all mean? His perfomance was not manufactured, or elevated artificially. He's the real deal.

OK, but what about him holding up for a full year?

1. He didn't miss a game at all last season.

2. He had 10 games where he carried the ball 15+ times, including the playoffs.

3. All of his 100+ yard games came AFTER week 11, where the infamous rookie wall looms.

Well, the Colts don't run that much, so he's not going to be able to put up top RB numbers.

In 2006 there were 416 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 54.3% of the carries)

In 2005 there were 420 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 85.7% of the carries)

In 2004 there were 392 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 85.2% of the carries)

In 2003 there were 419 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 73.9% of the carries)

In 2002 there were 390 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 71.0% of the carries)

In 2001 there were 401 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 58.1% of the carries - this is the season Edge got hurt)

In 2000 there were 392 carries by RBs (#1 RB saw 98.7% of the carries)

Which one of those years was the abberation? Outside of last season, when the #1 RB has been healthy he has seen a minimum of 70% of the carries. Not only that, but those 70% years were when Edge was still recovering. Once fully healthy, the #1 RB has seen a minimum of 85% of the carries.

Additionally, the lowest number of carries came the season Edge was recuperating. The carries have held strongly within the 390-420 range.

So if we "estimate" the Colts run it 405 times this coming season, and that Addai sees 85% of the carries, he will rush 344 times. That's an everage of 21.5 carries per game.

Last year he only carried the ball over 21 times twice, once at 7.7 per carry, the other time at 4.9 per carry.

Suppose he recedes to 4.5 YPC (he only failed to carry at 4.5YPC 4 times when he had over 15 carries last season) that totals 1548 yards rushing!!!!

Last season he scored on every 32 carries, which projects to 11 TDs this season.

Add in his receiving, even if he duplicates last year's numbers 325 yards and a TD, although he should improve, that's a TOTAL of 1873 yards and 12 TDs.

Or 259 points.

That puts him between #5 and #6 from last years numbers.

Remember that's WITHOUT him improving receiving numbers, and regressing in production per touch from last season. Add to that our estimate for rushing attempts is lower than each of the last two seasons, and you have to say his FLOOR is #6.

What's wrong with this thinking????????

Can I get an AMEN!!! Took him 1.07 in the H/A 2 start up back in May/June, will be targeting him within reason in all redrafts. He isn't the most talented RB in the league however he has perhaps the most talent around him, and that makes for an ideal situation. Almost any RB that is half good will do well in the Peyton Manning Offense in Indy.

 

[Keith Lewis]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real." For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in. I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

Week 12 vs. PHI Qtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description  1 10:59 0 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 24 rushed for 9 yards  1 10:12 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN  1 1:47 7 - 0 1st-and-10 own 26 rushed for 0 yards  1 1:15 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 11 yards (first down)  1 0:26 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 25 rushed for 15 yards (first down)  2 14:59 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 10 yards TOUCHDOWN  2 13:09 14 - 0 3rd-and-1 own 49 rushed for 8 yards (first down)  2 10:58 14 - 0 3rd-and-6 opp 39 caught pass for 16 yards (first down)  2 10:28 14 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 23 rushed for 6 yards  2 9:49 14 - 0 2nd-and-4 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards  2 9:03 14 - 0 3rd-and-2 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN

I thought this was pretty special.

Not even special, go look at what other garbage RBS did against Philly in the 3 games before this and after this, even D. Williams had a great game against the Eagles at that point in the season.

 

[Keith Lewis]

I would take Addai in the late first in a PPR league, and would take him in the late 2nd in a non PPR league. What's not to like, nothing if you take him there. Taking him in the mid first round in a non-ppr league is reaching and likely a huge mistake.

 

[Afro Samurai]

Love him, no reason not to. He's got breakaway speed, tough as hell, and really smart which increases his value in an offense like that.

I'm thinking 1300 rushing, 55 catches for 400 yards. 10 TD

 

[PahtyTom]

Health is my only concern, but it wouldn't stop me from ranking him in my top 6 RBs. If healthy he shouldn't have a problem putting up "Indy Edge" type numbers.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real." For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in. I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

Week 12 vs. PHI Qtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description  1 10:59 0 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 24 rushed for 9 yards  1 10:12 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN  1 1:47 7 - 0 1st-and-10 own 26 rushed for 0 yards  1 1:15 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 11 yards (first down)  1 0:26 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 25 rushed for 15 yards (first down)  2 14:59 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 10 yards TOUCHDOWN  2 13:09 14 - 0 3rd-and-1 own 49 rushed for 8 yards (first down)  2 10:58 14 - 0 3rd-and-6 opp 39 caught pass for 16 yards (first down)  2 10:28 14 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 23 rushed for 6 yards  2 9:49 14 - 0 2nd-and-4 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards  2 9:03 14 - 0 3rd-and-2 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN

I thought this was pretty special.

Not even special, go look at what other garbage RBS did against Philly in the 3 games before this and after this, even D. Williams had a great game against the Eagles at that point in the season.

Okay, I looked up the three games before and after, like you asked:

Opponent	FP Allowed - RBs vs JAX	26.2vs WAS	13.5vs TEN	23.9ADDAI	44.8  (31.7 in the FIRST HALF)vs CAR	26.4at WAS	18.8at NYG	25.4

Care to analyze this data for me?

 

[Keith Lewis]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real." For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in. I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

Week 12 vs. PHI   Qtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description    1 10:59 0 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 24 rushed for 9 yards    1 10:12 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN    1 1:47 7 - 0 1st-and-10 own 26 rushed for 0 yards    1 1:15 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 11 yards (first down)    1 0:26 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 25 rushed for 15 yards (first down)    2 14:59 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 10 yards TOUCHDOWN    2 13:09 14 - 0 3rd-and-1 own 49 rushed for 8 yards (first down)    2 10:58 14 - 0 3rd-and-6 opp 39 caught pass for 16 yards (first down)    2 10:28 14 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 23 rushed for 6 yards    2 9:49 14 - 0 2nd-and-4 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards    2 9:03 14 - 0 3rd-and-2 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN

I thought this was pretty special.

Not even special, go look at what other garbage RBS did against Philly in the 3 games before this and after this, even D. Williams had a great game against the Eagles at that point in the season.

Okay, I looked up the three games before and after, like you asked:

Opponent	FP Allowed - RBs   vs JAX	26.2  vs WAS	13.5  vs TEN	23.9  ADDAI	44.8  (31.7 in the FIRST HALF)  vs CAR	26.4  at WAS	18.8  at NYG	25.4

Care to analyze this data for me?

Philly Defense during a bad, bad stretch:Week 11 - Travis Henry, 21.1 fantasy pointsWeek 12 - Joseph Addai, 44.8 fantasy points in prime timeWeek 13 - Deangelo Williams, 23.5 fantasy pointsWeek 14 - Ladell Betts, 18.5 fantasy points (171 yards)Betts/Dwilly are not exactly LT/LJ. Lets analyze week 11,13,14 for Addai11. 5.7 points for Addai vs. Dallas where Henry had 21.1 against Philly13. 6.7 points for Addai vs. TENNESSEE where DWilly had 23.5 vs. Philly14. 3.6 points for Addai vs. Jax where Betts had 18.5 vs. PhillyNotice the trend? Notice whover played Philly has a huge game. I'd like your analysis on this data.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real."

For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in.

I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

Week 12 vs. PHI Qtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description 1 10:59 0 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 24 rushed for 9 yards 1 10:12 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN 1 1:47 7 - 0 1st-and-10 own 26 rushed for 0 yards 1 1:15 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 11 yards (first down) 1 0:26 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 25 rushed for 15 yards (first down) 2 14:59 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 10 yards TOUCHDOWN 2 13:09 14 - 0 3rd-and-1 own 49 rushed for 8 yards (first down) 2 10:58 14 - 0 3rd-and-6 opp 39 caught pass for 16 yards (first down) 2 10:28 14 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 23 rushed for 6 yards 2 9:49 14 - 0 2nd-and-4 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards 2 9:03 14 - 0 3rd-and-2 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN I thought this was pretty special.

Not even special, go look at what other garbage RBS did against Philly in the 3 games before this and after this, even D. Williams had a great game against the Eagles at that point in the season.

Okay, I looked up the three games before and after, like you asked:

Opponent FP Allowed - RBs vs JAX 26.2 vs WAS 13.5 vs TEN 23.9 ADDAI 44.8 (31.7 in the FIRST HALF) vs CAR 26.4 at WAS 18.8 at NYG 25.4Care to analyze this data for me?

Philly Defense during a bad, bad stretch:Week 11 - Travis Henry, 21.1 fantasy points

Week 12 - Joseph Addai, 44.8 fantasy points in prime time

Week 13 - Deangelo Williams, 23.5 fantasy points

Week 14 - Ladell Betts, 18.5 fantasy points (171 yards)

Betts/Dwilly are not exactly LT/LJ.

Or Addai, apparently. Yeah, now that I think about it, rookie RBs regularly go for 107 and 3 TDs in a half on national TV. Not "special" at all.

Save you typing fingers for adding nothing to another thread. I'm not going to bother to respond again to your inanity.

 

[Keith Lewis]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real."

For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in.

I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

Week 12 vs. PHI Qtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description 1 10:59 0 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 24 rushed for 9 yards 1 10:12 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN 1 1:47 7 - 0 1st-and-10 own 26 rushed for 0 yards 1 1:15 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 11 yards (first down) 1 0:26 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 25 rushed for 15 yards (first down) 2 14:59 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 10 yards TOUCHDOWN 2 13:09 14 - 0 3rd-and-1 own 49 rushed for 8 yards (first down) 2 10:58 14 - 0 3rd-and-6 opp 39 caught pass for 16 yards (first down) 2 10:28 14 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 23 rushed for 6 yards 2 9:49 14 - 0 2nd-and-4 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards 2 9:03 14 - 0 3rd-and-2 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN I thought this was pretty special.

Not even special, go look at what other garbage RBS did against Philly in the 3 games before this and after this, even D. Williams had a great game against the Eagles at that point in the season.

Okay, I looked up the three games before and after, like you asked:

Opponent FP Allowed - RBs vs JAX 26.2 vs WAS 13.5 vs TEN 23.9 ADDAI 44.8 (31.7 in the FIRST HALF) vs CAR 26.4 at WAS 18.8 at NYG 25.4Care to analyze this data for me?

Philly Defense during a bad, bad stretch:Week 11 - Travis Henry, 21.1 fantasy points

Week 12 - Joseph Addai, 44.8 fantasy points in prime time

Week 13 - Deangelo Williams, 23.5 fantasy points

Week 14 - Ladell Betts, 18.5 fantasy points (171 yards)

Betts/Dwilly are not exactly LT/LJ.

Or Addai, apparently. Yeah, now that I think about it, rookie RBs regularly go for 107 and 3 TDs in a half on national TV. Not "special" at all.

Save you typing fingers for adding nothing to another thread. I'm not going to bother to respond again to your inanity.

A RB who goes for 5,6,44,3 in 4 weeks straight if starting as your #1 RB on your fantasy team, you'll likely go 1-3. Enjoy the ride.

 

[Routilla]

I think Addai will be one of the safest picks at RB this year. Great offense, no Rhodes, catches well and runs hard, goalline carries. With LJ's pending hold out I now find myself considering Joe as my franchise and I don't feel too bad if I have to go this way.

 

[joffer]

Addai's numbers last year look a lot like Steven Jackson's numbers 2 years ago. i'm just sayin'.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I would take Addai in the late first in a PPR league, and would take him in the late 2nd in a non PPR league. What's not to like, nothing if you take him there. Taking him in the mid first round in a non-ppr league is reaching and likely a huge mistake.

8-10 TDs as a rookie, no?A lock for 100 yds of production a week.I am not a projector really but 1,600 yds and 8-10+ TDs doesn't seem like 2nd round production to me.

 

[Keith Lewis]

I would take Addai in the late first in a PPR league, and would take him in the late 2nd in a non PPR league. What's not to like, nothing if you take him there. Taking him in the mid first round in a non-ppr league is reaching and likely a huge mistake.

8-10 TDs as a rookie, no?A lock for 100 yds of production a week.I am not a projector really but 1,600 yds and 8-10+ TDs doesn't seem like 2nd round production to me.

I don't consider him a lock for 100 a week or 8-10 TDS. He had 100+ rush/receive yards 5 of 16 games last year and failed to do that 11 times so I think calling it a "lock" is a huge leap of faith. Besides the Eagles game he had only 5 total TDS last year (4 rush, 1 receive) + 1 against NE in the playoffs, none in the superbowl or vs. the ravens. Only 1 TD all year against a division rival (1 receive vs. Houston), none vs. Jax, none vs. Tennessee. Like I said I'd take him higher in a PPR but no higher than late 2nd in a non-ppr. I know it's not popular to go against the Addai bandwagon but I'll take my chances with someone with a higher skill set as my 1st round pick.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Addai's numbers last year look a lot like Steven Jackson's numbers 2 years ago. i'm just sayin'.

He reminds me more of Willie Parker 2005 actually. Decent yardage totals, a high per carry average plus limited touchdowns due to having a vulture in Jerome Bettis. Once Willie Parker got those touchdowns as well as the increase in yards he became a top-5 running back. It's not unreasonable to think that Joseph Addai can reach that same level with Dominic Rhodes moving on to Oakland.Addai's a solid player. He runs well, can catch the ball and plays in an offense where he can score a lot of touchdowns. I don't like the fact that the Colts best lineman up and retired but other than there's a lot to like about this guy and his situation. I'm not ready to put him in that Edgerrin James-prime level but I honestly can't find more than 4, maybe 5 running backs that I'd rather have than this guy in 2007.

 

[pizzatyme]

Just to add some food for thought. The Colts are high on DeDe Dorsey. I don't think it impacts Addai much, but I could really see the Colts going 70/30 split here.

Positives are that Addai should have a higher YPC this year now that the Colts have a true slot WR in Gonzalez. I look for D. Clark to help the LT on most plays and hit the pattern late as a check-down.

Addai will get the GL carries. I could easily see his TD's hit 12. Couple that with 1500 yards from scrimmage and you have a top of the first round RB.

To comment on some of the replies in this thread thus far...

-T. Glenn was not on the downside of his career. He probably just had his finest season of his career.

-Addai got his numbers while not starting 1 regular season game IIRC. Now he gets an uptick in touches.

 

[jurrassic]

I have concerns about the fact he never started before and they have a very tough schedule. Would you guys keeps him over LJ, in a keeper league?

 

[nygiants56]

not a ### #### thing

Doesn't do well on the road, I think his ypc avg is 4.1 away, while its much higher at home. doesn't do well on grass, but does well indoors on field turf. They play 7 games on grass this season..something to be concerned about..never been a full time starting RB who's carried the load to the tune of 300+ carries. lost Tarik Glenn to reitrement..Houston is getting much better defensively, as is Tenn. , and don't forget 2 games vs. J'ville..they play a 5 game stretch with TB, j'ville, carolina, NE, SD..they also play Balt., Raiders (who are improving defensively), Denver, Atl..they have their work cut out for themselves..I think Addai is going to finish as a top 10 RB, but on the lower end of that, say 8-10. He's in the best offense, with the best QB, and that means a lot..we knocked LJ last season when he lost Roaf to retirement, we must do the same with Addai ,now that Glenn has called it quits..thats a huge void on the left side of the line..I think he drops from potential top 5 RB, down to #8-10.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

He had 100+ rush/receive yards 5 of 16 games last year and failed to do that 11 times so I think calling it a "lock" is a huge leap of faith.

You realize he was part of a true RBBC last year and isn't this year, right? Big difference.I agree with Switz and fervently disagree with Keith. In fact, I've all but talked myself into taking Addai at #5 over Parker, Alexander and Westbrook. I mentioned this in another thread, but there's realy no downside to taking Addai in the first. Unlike many of the other backs you can get at that spot, he has a pretty clear-cut backup (DeDe Dorsey) with almost no value on his own. You can handcuff Addai in rounds 14-16 and in the event Addai gets hurt, you have a viable starting RB on your roster already, without hitting the waiver wire.As for the reported 70/30 Addai/Dorsey split, I'm not buying it. John Clayton just said on ESPN 5 minutes ago that Dungy expects Addai to put up "Edgerrin James-type numbers" now that he "no longer has to split carries with Rhodes." Yes, Dorsey will spell him from time to time, but Addai is going to see anywhere from 280-350 carries if he stays healthy. I'd put his floor at around 1,150 yards and his ceiling at about 1,550. Split the difference - I see :1,350 yards rushing... another 450 receiving, and 12-13 TDs. Handcuffable after you've picked a K and DEF.. I see almost no downside to Addai in the mid-first. Alexander probably offers slightly higher upside in non-PPR, TD heavy leagues, and Westbrook probably offers a bit more in a PPR, yardage-heavy league but the risk/reward ratio for Addai in standard scoring is better than that of the other backs being discussed in that range, IMO.

 

[Family Matters]

I don't think he's a special back. I just can't recall seeing him do anything that really made me say, "This kid is for real."

For this year, I think he'll be a stud, or near-stud. I think he's a safe pick, lead dog on a playoff team. I think he will do fine/good in the great situation that he is in.

I don't think he'll ever be in the top echelon of backs.

Week 12 vs. PHI Qtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description 1 10:59 0 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 24 rushed for 9 yards 1 10:12 0 - 0 2nd-and-1 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN 1 1:47 7 - 0 1st-and-10 own 26 rushed for 0 yards 1 1:15 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 11 yards (first down) 1 0:26 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 25 rushed for 15 yards (first down) 2 14:59 7 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 10 rushed for 10 yards TOUCHDOWN 2 13:09 14 - 0 3rd-and-1 own 49 rushed for 8 yards (first down) 2 10:58 14 - 0 3rd-and-6 opp 39 caught pass for 16 yards (first down) 2 10:28 14 - 0 1st-and-10 opp 23 rushed for 6 yards 2 9:49 14 - 0 2nd-and-4 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards 2 9:03 14 - 0 3rd-and-2 opp 15 rushed for 15 yards TOUCHDOWN I thought this was pretty special.

Not even special, go look at what other garbage RBS did against Philly in the 3 games before this and after this, even D. Williams had a great game against the Eagles at that point in the season.

Okay, I looked up the three games before and after, like you asked:

Opponent FP Allowed - RBs vs JAX 26.2 vs WAS 13.5 vs TEN 23.9 ADDAI 44.8 (31.7 in the FIRST HALF) vs CAR 26.4 at WAS 18.8 at NYG 25.4Care to analyze this data for me?

Philly Defense during a bad, bad stretch:Week 11 - Travis Henry, 21.1 fantasy points

Week 12 - Joseph Addai, 44.8 fantasy points in prime time

Week 13 - Deangelo Williams, 23.5 fantasy points

Week 14 - Ladell Betts, 18.5 fantasy points (171 yards)

Betts/Dwilly are not exactly LT/LJ.

Or Addai, apparently. Yeah, now that I think about it, rookie RBs regularly go for 107 and 3 TDs in a half on national TV. Not "special" at all.

Save you typing fingers for adding nothing to another thread. I'm not going to bother to respond again to your inanity.

A RB who goes for 5,6,44,3 in 4 weeks straight if starting as your #1 RB on your fantasy team, you'll likely go 1-3. Enjoy the ride.

So you're basing your analysis on what happened last year without regard to the changes coming this year? That's where you should rethink this. Last year was a RBBC in Indy. This year Addai will be the man. The likelyhood of having back to back weeks of low productivity are far more remote now. Unless of course you think DeDe will make some serious impact. If that's the case you should start a thread touting DeDe and his tremendous value as a 15th round draft pick with Rhodes like numbers.

 

[ThePittbully]

I dont understand why the fact that he's never carried a complete workload and has been repeatedly slowed by injuries in the past is completely ignored with addai , and yet other guys like benson, peterson, gore,jacobs etc. get put on a cross around here for the exact same reasons

 

[jurb26]

I dont understand why the fact that he's never carried a complete workload and has been repeatedly slowed by injuries in the past is completely ignored with addai , and yet other guys like benson, peterson, gore,jacobs etc. get put on a cross around here for the exact same reasons

I don't get that either. It seems a lot of times people just pick and choose who they want to like and dislike based on injuries. That is not one of my main concerns with Addai, just an observation as a whole.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Maybe his 355 touches (incl playoffs) last year were enough to ease "load" concerns.

 

[Tau837]

Maybe his 355 touches (incl playoffs) last year were enough to ease "load" concerns.

 

[Gr00vus]

As for the reported 70/30 Addai/Dorsey split, I'm not buying it. John Clayton just said on ESPN 5 minutes ago that Dungy expects Addai to put up "Edgerrin James-type numbers" now that he "no longer has to split carries with Rhodes." Yes, Dorsey will spell him from time to time, but Addai is going to see anywhere from 280-350 carries if he stays healthy. I'd put his floor at around 1,150 yards and his ceiling at about 1,550.

70% isn't chump change - I don't know what the exact average carry percentage is for a lead running back, but I'd be surprised if it's higher than 70%.I'd figure the floor for Addai (barring injury which you can't predict) is around 300 carries, 40 receptions, 1400 combined with around 8-10 TDs. He could do much better than this - it depends on how Manning wants to hand out the TDs etc.

Solid first round pick. You can draft his backups for peanuts too as insurance. I wouldn't, but I could see a case for him going as soon as 2nd or 3rd overall depending on what your ceiling for him is and how you feel about all the uncertainty at RB after LaDainian and Jackson.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

As for the reported 70/30 Addai/Dorsey split, I'm not buying it. John Clayton just said on ESPN 5 minutes ago that Dungy expects Addai to put up "Edgerrin James-type numbers" now that he "no longer has to split carries with Rhodes." Yes, Dorsey will spell him from time to time, but Addai is going to see anywhere from 280-350 carries if he stays healthy. I'd put his floor at around 1,150 yards and his ceiling at about 1,550.

70% isn't chump change - I don't know what the exact average carry percentage is for a lead running back, but I'd be surprised if it's higher than 70%.I'd figure the floor for Addai (barring injury which you can't predict) is around 300 carries, 40 receptions, 1400 combined with around 8-10 TDs. He could do much better than this - it depends on how Manning wants to hand out the TDs etc.

Solid first round pick. You can draft his backups for peanuts too as insurance. I wouldn't, but I could see a case for him going as soon as 2nd or 3rd overall depending on what your ceiling for him is and how you feel about all the uncertainty at RB after LaDainian and Jackson.

No, 70% is not chump change at all, but I think he gets more. They have an Ivy League rookie and an NAIA 2nd year guy behind Addai, and Addai being the best blocker of the three will be a 3-down back. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him get an Edge-like % of the carries in James' heyday - more like 85-90%.

 

[Gr00vus]

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him get an Edge-like % of the carries in James' heyday - more like 85-90%.

I'd be very surprised. I don't think he needs that high a percentage to have an excellent year - in fact I'd be concerned about him running out of gas at the end of the year if he did get that high a percentage.Top 10: running backs with most carries 2006:Larry Johnson 416, accounting for 89% of his teams rushes by running backs. LaDainian 348, 75% of his team's rushing attempts.Steven Jackson 346, 84% of his team's rushing attempts.Rudi 341, 87%Edgerrin James 337, 88%Willie Parker 337, 81%Tiki Barber 327, 77%Jamal Lewis 318, 78%Frank Gore 312, 82%Chester Taylor 303, 77%Considering the above 85 to 90 percent looks like a pretty high number - only 3 guys did it in the top 10, and I imagine less than that (quite possibly 0) outside the top 10. Also note that these were the only 10 guys in the NFL to get 300 or more rushing attempts last year - something to consider for all you projecting much more than 300 carries for just about anybody.

 

[joffer]

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him get an Edge-like % of the carries in James' heyday - more like 85-90%.

I'd be very surprised. I don't think he needs that high a percentage to have an excellent year - in fact I'd be concerned about him running out of gas at the end of the year if he did get that high a percentage.

agree. i don't WANT him to get more than 75%-80%

 

[Keith Lewis]

Maybe his 355 touches (incl playoffs) last year were enough to ease "load" concerns.

But if he had just 45 more touches he'd be doomed to get hurt.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him get an Edge-like % of the carries in James' heyday - more like 85-90%.

I'd be very surprised. I don't think he needs that high a percentage to have an excellent year - in fact I'd be concerned about him running out of gas at the end of the year if he did get that high a percentage.

agree. i don't WANT him to get more than 75%-80%

Neither do I, but I think he will. Looking at the stats groovus posted, I expect he may very easily be in that LJ/Rudi/Edge category. The thing about those three guys is that each of them was playing for a team with no viable backup option. LT has Turner, Alexander has Morris, Parker had Davenport (and also comes out on 3rd downs), etc.. Addai, I believe, fits in with James, Rudi, and Johnson in terms of the Indy RB situation. I can't imagine DeDe Dorsey getting 100 carries this year unless Addai gets hurt. Addai is the better runner, blocker, and receiver, and I have a feeling he'll be out there all 3 downs on almost every drive.

 

[Routilla]

Maybe his 355 touches (incl playoffs) last year were enough to ease "load" concerns.

But if he had just 45 more touches he'd be doomed to get hurt.

 

[crimsonrebel]

Even Jamal Lewis looked special in "one" game. That being said, i do think Addai is a legit first round pick, but he's not the next big thing either.....unless he decides to prove it. I'm semi-sold on Addai only because he played in the SEC, so you know he can get the job done against good defenses.

 

[switz]

Pretty simple for me really. It's not that I don't like Addai. I think he will be a solid fantasy RB. He is in a great offense and is with out a doubt the featured RB. However, I don't like the big downgrade at Oline (yes, I think loosing Glenn is a big blow) and I think the D is going to struggle a lot this year, especially at LB and CB. Indy added another potent weapon in the passing game with Gonzalez and I just don't see him living up to his draft position. I mean the guys has an ADP of 5th overall! Do you really think he is THAT good? I don't. I'd take him at the turn of a draft where I could soften the pick with a quick follow up guy. I just don't feel he is a good buy at 5.

Then again, with some of the recent news about Portis. You very well could double up with Addai in Rd 1 and Portis in Rd 2 as of late. That would be a pretty nice start.

The whole point of my post is that even if he's just averag ehe puts up top-5 numbers

 

[jurb26]

Pretty simple for me really. It's not that I don't like Addai. I think he will be a solid fantasy RB. He is in a great offense and is with out a doubt the featured RB. However, I don't like the big downgrade at Oline (yes, I think loosing Glenn is a big blow) and I think the D is going to struggle a lot this year, especially at LB and CB. Indy added another potent weapon in the passing game with Gonzalez and I just don't see him living up to his draft position. I mean the guys has an ADP of 5th overall! Do you really think he is THAT good? I don't. I'd take him at the turn of a draft where I could soften the pick with a quick follow up guy. I just don't feel he is a good buy at 5.

Then again, with some of the recent news about Portis. You very well could double up with Addai in Rd 1 and Portis in Rd 2 as of late. That would be a pretty nice start.

The whole point of my post is that even if he's just averag ehe puts up top-5 numbers

I don't agree with your projections. I don't feel Addai will put up numbers at the same rate he did last year. I think I've stated why in the above post.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Big Addai believer here. I think he's very likely to put up top 5 numbers, but I can certainly understand why some are hesitant to take him at 4 or 5. That's an extremely high position to take a guy who has really only had a handful of good pro games and isn't nearly the superstar as those who will be drafted around him.

Good chance I'll be taking him at #4 in one of my PPR leagues. I think he's the best gamble. But I certainly understand the risk.

 

[switz]

He had 100+ rush/receive yards 5 of 16 games last year and failed to do that 11 times.

Wow is that a misleading stat. How many carries did he average in his non-100 yard games. Then how many did he average in his 100 yard games.Which number is closer to what we'll see this year?After reading this thread, it seems to me that the people who don't like Addai, just don't want to.