Judge Smails 100 star 2 team parlay lock of the year (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

As you know in my previous posts I think the collective hit rate on locks in this forum is about 10% (and that's ignoring LHUCKS Pac10 selections). So, my recommendation is to do the exact opposite.

2 games they just can't put the number high enough this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers to the New York football Giants. Both will be absolute blowouts - and they could win by 30+ with the spreads hovering at 14 and 10.

Christmas comes early boys and girls. Discuss.

 

[TenTimes]

Just bet the opposite of what you said with confidence.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Surprisingly enough, the Browns only allowed more than 20 pts to one opponent through five weeks (Baltimore). 14 sounds about right. I agree on the Giants though, that could be a pasting. I wouldn't be putting a meaningful amount on the Steelers though.

 

[Go Blue]

I completely agree on Pittsburgh. Colt McCoy vs the Pittsburgh Def. is a mismatch beyond belief. The Pittsburgh defense might cover the spread by themselves. Plus Big Ben has a lot to prove.

I do not like the Giants call. Detroit has not looked like the doormats of the NFL this year. They lost to the Bears, Eagles, and Packers by a COMBINED 10 points. They do have a pass rush and that causes turnovers. I think they can keep this one close.

 

[detox]

I completely agree on Pittsburgh. Colt McCoy vs the Pittsburgh Def. is a mismatch beyond belief. The Pittsburgh defense might cover the spread by themselves. Plus Big Ben has a lot to prove. I do not like the Giants call. Detroit has not looked like the doormats of the NFL this year. They lost to the Bears, Eagles, and Packers by a COMBINED 10 points. They do have a pass rush and that causes turnovers. I think they can keep this one close.

Detroit has covered every week excluding the Vikings game. And I believe there was a last minute pick six or turn over in Detroits side o the field for a last minute score for the Vikings to make that cover. I could be wrong though.I do like the Steelers pick this week.

 

[Judge Smails]

I completely agree on Pittsburgh. Colt McCoy vs the Pittsburgh Def. is a mismatch beyond belief. The Pittsburgh defense might cover the spread by themselves. Plus Big Ben has a lot to prove. I do not like the Giants call. Detroit has not looked like the doormats of the NFL this year. They lost to the Bears, Eagles, and Packers by a COMBINED 10 points. They do have a pass rush and that causes turnovers. I think they can keep this one close.

Detroit has covered every week excluding the Vikings game. And I believe there was a last minute pick six or turn over in Detroits side o the field for a last minute score for the Vikings to make that cover. I could be wrong though.I do like the Steelers pick this week.

Fully understand. My head is not in the sand thinking this is the Detroit Lions of the last few years. They are vastly improved. However - Calvin Johnson is very banged up. Shaun Hill will face a dominant pass rush that could wreak havoc. If the Giants D plays anywhere close to last week this one shouldn't be close. Teams like the Lions and Rams that look like they've turned the corner can still throw in big time stinkers - see the Rams last one...That being said - you should all bet the other way..

 

[Cookiemonster]

Cleveland has been playing the Steelers tough the last couple years, and I think they're a team on the rise (though not nearly the same plane as Pitt or Balt).

I can't say how the Det O line has been holding up, but the Giants D is good. Detroit as we all SHOULD know, is way better than we have come to know of them over the last 10 years, but Calvin is likely 60% or so (one armed), and I would say the Giants kill 'em.

If you're saying "Take the Steelers -13 and the Giants -10," I would have to take the Giants and stay away from the Steelers. Cribbs by himself has been a terror to Pitt and he may be taking a bulk of the snaps this week.

 

[Glaven]

Cleveland has been playing the Steelers tough the last couple years, and I think they're a team on the rise (though not nearly the same plane as Pitt or Balt).

I can't say how the Det O line has been holding up, but the Giants D is good. Detroit as we all SHOULD know, is way better than we have come to know of them over the last 10 years, but Calvin is likely 60% or so (one armed), and I would say the Giants kill 'em.

If you're saying "Take the Steelers -13 and the Giants -10," I would have to take the Giants and stay away from the Steelers. Cribbs by himself has been a terror to Pitt and he may be taking a bulk of the snaps this week.

I don't think Mangini is smart enough to use Cribbs in that role.

 

[Judge Smails]

Cleveland has been playing the Steelers tough the last couple years, and I think they're a team on the rise (though not nearly the same plane as Pitt or Balt). I can't say how the Det O line has been holding up, but the Giants D is good. Detroit as we all SHOULD know, is way better than we have come to know of them over the last 10 years, but Calvin is likely 60% or so (one armed), and I would say the Giants kill 'em. If you're saying "Take the Steelers -13 and the Giants -10," I would have to take the Giants and stay away from the Steelers. Cribbs by himself has been a terror to Pitt and he may be taking a bulk of the snaps this week.

Colt freakin' McCoy - 3rd string rookie making his first ever start in Pittsburgh. Don't overthink this one. What's the over under on how many first downs the Browns get, let alone points?

 

[Cookiemonster]

Cleveland has been playing the Steelers tough the last couple years, and I think they're a team on the rise (though not nearly the same plane as Pitt or Balt). I can't say how the Det O line has been holding up, but the Giants D is good. Detroit as we all SHOULD know, is way better than we have come to know of them over the last 10 years, but Calvin is likely 60% or so (one armed), and I would say the Giants kill 'em. If you're saying "Take the Steelers -13 and the Giants -10," I would have to take the Giants and stay away from the Steelers. Cribbs by himself has been a terror to Pitt and he may be taking a bulk of the snaps this week.

Colt freakin' McCoy - 3rd string rookie making his first ever start in Pittsburgh. Don't overthink this one. What's the over under on how many first downs the Browns get, let alone points?

If Cribbs takes 20% of the snaps from wilcat formations, this game is closer than most of you think. Sure, reports about Ben have been glowing, but who doesn't think he shows some rust? I see Pitt in for a dogfight and a wakeup call. They are being crowned as an AFC powerhouse without their starting QB and I agree, but there HAS to be some bumps in the road and a division opponent (who beat them last year) is the one to do it.

 

[Judge Smails]

They won't get 10 first downs all game.

 

[reprisal]

How are Pitts special teams? How likely is it that they get San Diego'd in this game?

 

[Cookiemonster]

How are Pitts specially teams? How likely is it that they get San Diego'd in this game?

IIRC, Cribbs has killed 'em on special teams. That said, they seem to be much more sound this year than in the last couple.

 

[reprisal]

Just bet the opposite of what you said with confidence.

speaking of this, what are the odds on a parlay Cleveland + Detroit?

 

[TenTimes]

Just to play devil's advocate I'd say that the Giants had Sage Rosenfels telling them exactly what to expect from the Texans and we really shouldn't expect nearly the same complete shut down against the Lions (unless they've recently acquired an ex-Lion that I didn't know about).

 

[Cassius]

Underdogs are covering at an almost record-setting rate this season. Just sayin.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Teaser parlays give you 6pts to the line on combo bets.

These are all better teaser plays that Pitt -7 and NY -4 (teased)....

jets / denver over 35.5

kc / houston under 50

Atlanta +9 @Philly

jets +3 @denver

balt +8.5 @NE

sd-2.5 @st louis

no/tb under 50

over 38.5 balt/ne

jax +9 vs tenn

oak +12.5@sf

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Pittsburg rocks. But being its Ben's first week back and a division opponent with a capable defense and a capable running game, I dont like a blowout in this game. Could happen but I wouldn't spend my money on it.

The giants have two tricks: a blistering pass rush and a kickass wide receiver. Against scum they can dominate. The Lions are no longer scum. See last weeks score against a Spagnola defense.

 

[duaneok66]

Cleveland has been playing the Steelers tough the last couple years, and I think they're a team on the rise (though not nearly the same plane as Pitt or Balt). I can't say how the Det O line has been holding up, but the Giants D is good. Detroit as we all SHOULD know, is way better than we have come to know of them over the last 10 years, but Calvin is likely 60% or so (one armed), and I would say the Giants kill 'em. If you're saying "Take the Steelers -13 and the Giants -10," I would have to take the Giants and stay away from the Steelers. Cribbs by himself has been a terror to Pitt and he may be taking a bulk of the snaps this week.

at least one of the games last year had Troy P being out - that made a huge difference - agree with the OP on Pittsburgh - disagree on Detroit . . . Christmas is still over two months away . . .

 

[Air Stich]

As you know in my previous posts I think the collective hit rate on locks in this forum is about 10% (and that's ignoring LHUCKS Pac10 selections). So, my recommendation is to do the exact opposite.2 games they just can't put the number high enough this week.Pittsburgh Steelers to the New York football Giants. Both will be absolute blowouts - and they could win by 30+ with the spreads hovering at 14 and 10. Christmas comes early boys and girls. Discuss.

Is there anywhere I can go to see your betting record? I know lots of guys who bet . . . and lose, but think they're John Anthony any time they pick a winner. I've seen enough to believe that the spreads are really, really good and you've got about a 25% chance of being right on this particular parlay.

 

[bushdocda]

The old expecting two blowout covers parlay. Great way to support your bookie.

I know I can't pick winners so usually by this point in the season I just take points and watch the chaos play out. No motivation to cover.

 

[reprisal]

Teaser parlays give you 6pts to the line on combo bets.These are all better teaser plays that Pitt -7 and NY -4 (teased)....jets / denver over 35.5kc / houston under 50Atlanta +9 @Phillybalt +8.5 @NEover 38.5 balt/nejax +9 vs tennoak +12.5@sf

These all seem like really solid bets

 

[Cookiemonster]

Teaser parlays give you 6pts to the line on combo bets.

These are all better teaser plays that Pitt -7 and NY -4 (teased)....

jets / denver over 35.5

kc / houston under 50

Atlanta +9 @Philly

balt +8.5 @NE

over 38.5 balt/ne

jax +9 vs tenn

oak +12.5@sf

These all seem like really solid bets

Those two are my favorites.

 

[reprisal]

Pittsburg rocks. But being its Ben's first week back and a division opponent with a capable defense and a capable running game, I dont like a blowout in this game. Could happen but I wouldn't spend my money on it.The giants have two tricks: a blistering pass rush and a kickass wide receiver. Against scum they can dominate. The Lions are no longer scum. See last weeks score against a Spagnola defense.

Not to mention Lions D is pretty bad but they can still rush the passer especially against the giants line. Expecting the giants to run as much as possible to negate that, which should lead to a closer game most likely. If you knew Calvin would be effective, taking the lions to cover might be a solid bet. As is though I dont like betting on what might have to be a lot of Jason Hanson to keep up with Nicks and Bradshaw. Is new meadowlands similar to the old one for kickers?

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Teaser parlays give you 6pts to the line on combo bets.These are all better teaser plays that Pitt -7 and NY -4 (teased)....jets / denver over 35.5kc / houston under 50Atlanta +9 @Phillyjets +3 @denverbalt +8.5 @NEsd-2.5 @st louisno/tb under 50over 38.5 balt/nejax +9 vs tennoak +12.5@sf

Teasing totals will lose you money in the long run. All of the rest are solid teaser legs except Oak +12.5. Teasing dogs +6.5 up to 12.5 is not a profitable subset.

 

[FavreCo]

Another lock of the year

 

[Judge Smails]

As you know in my previous posts I think the collective hit rate on locks in this forum is about 10% (and that's ignoring LHUCKS Pac10 selections). So, my recommendation is to do the exact opposite.2 games they just can't put the number high enough this week.Pittsburgh Steelers to the New York football Giants. Both will be absolute blowouts - and they could win by 30+ with the spreads hovering at 14 and 10. Christmas comes early boys and girls. Discuss.

Is there anywhere I can go to see your betting record? I know lots of guys who bet . . . and lose, but think they're John Anthony any time they pick a winner. I've seen enough to believe that the spreads are really, really good and you've got about a 25% chance of being right on this particular parlay.

Nope - I bet games 15 years ago but haven't since I've been in a high $ fantasy league - enjoy FF so much more than betting, where winning wasn't a rush just a relief when I won (totally different feeling about betting on horses - love betting a little to potentially winning a lot). That being said, by not betting I sometimes see things more clearly. See a few of these a year where IMO they just can't make the lines high enough. I like these because I believe the defenses will so thoughly dominate that a blowout should be inevitable. Any comparisons to Pittsburgh D last year are not valid. I owned their D last year - they were mediocre without Troy P - dominant now. Giants D should bring out the real Shaun Hill - sorry - I'm not a believer.I could be WAY off base. Very valid points (divisional games for CLE, Lions spread record this year, etc.) Nobody in their right minds should be this. Just a gut call. We'll see.

 

[Truman]

TAKING THE BROWNS +13.5

 

[Judge Smails]

TAKING THE BROWNS +13.5

Going against locks on this board = BOATLOADS. Well done.

 

[BobbyLayne]

 

[Cassius]

No.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Giants up 11 and Steelers up 18 right now.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Teaser parlays give you 6pts to the line on combo bets.These are all better teaser plays that Pitt -7 and NY -4 (teased)....jets / denver over 35.5kc / houston under 50Atlanta +9 @Phillybalt +8.5 @NEover 38.5 balt/nejax +9 vs tennoak +12.5@sf

These all seem like really solid bets

If Vegas lost money on teasers, they wouldn't offer them. Teasing totals is really a bad idea.

 

[Otis]

Well, this Giants bet blew my parlay. Knew this was bound to fail. Nice call on the Steelers anyway.

 

[Truman]

Browns one was uglier. Down 2 scores they refuse to let the Steelers run out the clock, calling timeouts and forcing them to run a play on 3rd down.......which they do and score.......

 

[eurotrashman]

Nice call on the Steelers anyway.

Yea...that was a tough one.

 

[Joe Summer]

Nice call on the Steelers anyway.

Yea...that was a tough one.

Out on a limb.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

 

[Judge Smails]

Had to add to the dismal prediction record on this site! Glad to be of service. Those that went against - congrats. Thought the Giants would pull it off for awhile - Lions deserve props - they do play tough...

 

[Air Stich]

No need to pile on. Just another example that there is NO such thing as a lock when it comes to sports betting.

 

[ourmanflint]

Hey I made money on the Steelers because of you. I wasn't even thinking about betting that game until you posted this.

Never liked the Gents play so I layed off of that one.

Thanks!