Judge Smails 100 Star Lock of the Year (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

OK, since Fantasy Football came on the scene a decade + ago the only game I usually bet on is the SuperBowl. But a few times a year I just look at a game and say that there is no way the books can put a number high enough for what's about to happen. Probably since I don't bet, my gut has been right time after time for the last several years. I have that gut feeling this week.

Take it for what it's worth. Fully expect to get ridiculed on Monday if I'm on the short end, a la AZCards, but that's OK.

The 100 Star Lock of the Year is....

KC/Saints over.

I've seen the line anywhere from 48 1/2 to 50. I don't care what it is. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see this game be something like 45-38. Thigpen has 3 quality receivers and moved at will vs. the Chargers in a hostile environment. With McKenzie and others out in the secondary, the Saints are defenseless on the road vs. the Chiefs. Brees will chuck it up, so the Saints will always get theirs.

For those brave, I also like KC to win the game (KC may be a team to ride the rest of the year BTW). Getting points is a bonus at home. Parlay the over to KC + 5 1/2 and to the money line if reaching for a bigger score.

Forecast is sunny and 55 degrees, so weather shouldn't be an issue.

Hammer away. Look at the bright side. If the game ends up 14-3, you'll never have to hear about my 100 Star Lock of the Year again!

 

[awesomeness]

I'm not trying to say it won't go OVER the number but KC does have a respectable pass defense. And San Diego is bottom 5 in pass Defense IIRC, which could be why Thigpen looked so good. I dont know if NO's pass D improved any from last year, if it hasn't than as you have said Thigpen should be able to suceed.

 

[Judge Smails]

I'm not trying to say it won't go OVER the number but KC does have a respectable pass defense. And San Diego is bottom 5 in pass Defense IIRC, which could be why Thigpen looked so good. I dont know if NO's pass D improved any from last year, if it hasn't than as you have said Thigpen should be able to suceed.

hmmm - maybe KC straight is even a stronger play than I thought.

 

[awesomeness]

I'm not trying to say it won't go OVER the number but KC does have a respectable pass defense. And San Diego is bottom 5 in pass Defense IIRC, which could be why Thigpen looked so good. I dont know if NO's pass D improved any from last year, if it hasn't than as you have said Thigpen should be able to suceed.

hmmm - maybe KC straight is even a stronger play than I thought.

After doing a bit more research 2 of KC's top 3 CB's, Brandon Flowers and Patrick Surtain, are likely going to sit out the game as they both did last week. That should help the OVER, not KC on the moneyline.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Well, at least you still never slice.

 

[Judge Smails]

I guess Bush is sounding very iffy and now Colston is having swelling in his knee too. If that's the case, KC + 5 1/2 at home is starting to sound like a great play to me.

 

[CravenM]

Is the 100 stars out of 100 or 1000?



I watched intensely the Saints against the Falcons last weekend (Atlanta homer) and the Saints are the equivalent of BYU in the early 90's. Drew Brees never saw a receiver that was too closely guarded.

The big diff here is that LJ is supposed to return from his timeout. If'n I were KC, I'd run-run-run til your opponents took your RB away. Thigpen certainly likes like wing it but the Saints won't be able to contain LJ.

I like the bet though. Wish I knew somewhere to place a bet...

 

[awesomeness]

Is the 100 stars out of 100 or 1000? I watched intensely the Saints against the Falcons last weekend (Atlanta homer) and the Saints are the equivalent of BYU in the early 90's. Drew Brees never saw a receiver that was too closely guarded.The big diff here is that LJ is supposed to return from his timeout. If'n I were KC, I'd run-run-run til your opponents took your RB away. Thigpen certainly likes like wing it but the Saints won't be able to contain LJ.I like the bet though. Wish I knew somewhere to place a bet...

thegreekcom

 

[Judge Smails]

Gotta love how I waffled on my only 100 star lock of the year within 5 minutes. Such conviction. Makes ya confident, huh?

 

[mrspree15]

I've seen the line anywhere from 48 1/2 to 50. I don't care what it is. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see this game be something like 45-38. Thigpen has 3 quality receivers and moved at will vs. the Chargers in a hostile environment. With McKenzie and others out in the secondary, the Saints are defenseless on the road vs. the Chiefs. Brees will chuck it up, so the Saints will always get theirs.

You know that Vegas already knows all of this and has built it into the line, right?

 

[treat88]

I've seen the line anywhere from 48 1/2 to 50. I don't care what it is. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see this game be something like 45-38. Thigpen has 3 quality receivers and moved at will vs. the Chargers in a hostile environment. With McKenzie and others out in the secondary, the Saints are defenseless on the road vs. the Chiefs. Brees will chuck it up, so the Saints will always get theirs.

You know that Vegas already knows all of this and has built it into the line, right?

They know more than any of us. Period.The numbers are set where they are at to create equivalent action on both sides. Meaning no matter how much analysis you poor into it you my as well flip a coin. And that's a best case scenario.I'm no gambling guru, but I know enough to know there is no such thing as a lock when you're using Vegas' numbers.

 

[CravenM]

Is the 100 stars out of 100 or 1000?I like the bet though. Wish I knew somewhere to place a bet...

thegreekcom

You complete me ...

 

[Dragon1952]

I'm not trying to say it won't go OVER the number but KC does have a respectable pass defense. And San Diego is bottom 5 in pass Defense IIRC, which could be why Thigpen looked so good. I dont know if NO's pass D improved any from last year, if it hasn't than as you have said Thigpen should be able to suceed.

It would take a heck of a pass defense to slow Brees down. In only 2 out of 9 games has he been held under 320 yds. That was at Washington and at Carolina. I would rank K.C. in the over 320 category. And yes, it is already figured in the total. But if KC doesn't get at least 24 here I'll be surprised. And I don't think they win the game, so.......

 

[Judge Smails]

I've seen the line anywhere from 48 1/2 to 50. I don't care what it is. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see this game be something like 45-38. Thigpen has 3 quality receivers and moved at will vs. the Chargers in a hostile environment. With McKenzie and others out in the secondary, the Saints are defenseless on the road vs. the Chiefs. Brees will chuck it up, so the Saints will always get theirs.

You know that Vegas already knows all of this and has built it into the line, right?

They know more than any of us. Period.The numbers are set where they are at to create equivalent action on both sides. Meaning no matter how much analysis you poor into it you my as well flip a coin. And that's a best case scenario.I'm no gambling guru, but I know enough to know there is no such thing as a lock when you're using Vegas' numbers.

I understand. I'm not saying I'm smarter than Roxy Roxbury and the like. Of course they have this down to a science. But not all games end up on the number they set. I don't think the Jets were 44 point favorites last week. There are some lines that they just can't set high enough. Average Joe won't load up on the over on a 50 point line. We'll see.

 

[ceo3west]

You know that Vegas already knows all of this and has built it into the line, right?

The public sets the lines, not Vegas. If the over/under is 48 1/2, it means that half the public has bet the under and half the over. FYI, scores very rarely hit the closing number. Bottom line - Vegas knows nothing. They establish an opening line and let the public set it - they make their money strictly on vigs.

 

[Warhogs]

OK. I am putting all the kids' Christmas money down on this one. If things don't work out they all are just going to get a picture of Judge Smails.

 

[Nipsey]

Big Brown will win the Triple Crown, and win it easily.

Proceed with caution anytime someone uses the L-word, especially here.

 

[mrspree15]

You know that Vegas already knows all of this and has built it into the line, right?

The public sets the lines, not Vegas. If the over/under is 48 1/2, it means that half the public has bet the under and half the over. FYI, scores very rarely hit the closing number. Bottom line - Vegas knows nothing. They establish an opening line and let the public set it - they make their money strictly on vigs.

Action isn't always split.

 

[Mr.Blonde]

You know that Vegas already knows all of this and has built it into the line, right?

The public sets the lines, not Vegas. If the over/under is 48 1/2, it means that half the public has bet the under and half the over. FYI, scores very rarely hit the closing number. Bottom line - Vegas knows nothing. They establish an opening line and let the public set it - they make their money strictly on vigs.

Action isn't always split.

My $.02 on these points.1. "FYI, scores very rarely hit the closing number" - This is misleading. In NFL games, 86% of the time, the final score is within 1.5 of the final betting line.2. "Vegas knows nothing. They establish an opening line " - The idea that "Vegas" knows nothing is incorrect. Much research/information gathering (Roxy's service) is used to establish this opening number. I know that when the Stardust was open, on Sunday night they would hang their opening numbers for the next week of games, there was a line to bet where the minimum bet was either 5K or 10K, I forget. The book managers would use this as the "acid test" to see how sharp their number was, as the people betting into these virgin numbers were just as sharp as they were.3. "they make their money strictly on vigs" - Once again, incorrect or at least only part of the story. Sportsbook managers are not bankers: they do not want to sit around and get 4.5% for their hold. "The Hold" - $110 bet on Team A, $110 bet on Team B. Team A wins - winners get paid $100. Books took in $220 in action - $10 in profits - 4.5% holdSportsbook managers are bettors, maybe one-time unsuccessful bettors, but bettors nonetheless. They want to "bet" on games, and are in this business for the action as well as the profits. While we are all familiar with the 10/11 vig and how you must win 52.83% of bets to break even, wouldn't you also want to have the opportunity to bet where 1. You set the line yourself and 2. You had to hit 47.17% to break even.Next time you go to Vegas/Reno/Tahoe look behind the counter. Do these guys look like the bankers in your hometown?

 

[Judge Smails]

JS,First time, long time.If this pick misses, will we get the rest of the year absolutely free?Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.

Absolutely. I'd listen to Nipsey - he knows things about he L word. Again, this is not based on my scientific evidence that the Chiefs since 1941 when playing in November at home when their team as a collective IQ of X and DNA matching Y that they will score Z points. Gut feeling.

 

[CalBear]

They know more than any of us. Period.

The numbers are set where they are at to create equivalent action on both sides. Meaning no matter how much analysis you poor into it you my as well flip a coin. And that's a best case scenario.

That's not true at all; in fact, the opposite is true. If Vegas' line is specifically set to create equal action on both sides, Vegas doesn't know anything about the likely result of the game. It knows about likely betting patterns. To win in this scenario, analysis is crucial--what you are looking for is situations where the betting public (not Vegas) has not fully accounted for some factor in the game. You don't need to beat Vegas, you just need to beat the public.On the other hand, I agree with the poster who suggests that Vegas doesn't always set the lines solely so that action breaks even on both sides. It may be the case that a line that looks too good to be true really is; that Vegas has itself identified a factor that will bias a particular result, that it thinks the public is not entirely aware of, so it encourages betting on the wrong side of the line. And it may even be the case that Vegas has influence in the final result of certain games. So it's not as simple as just beating the pack.

 

[-baller]

vegas posts a number and you get to pick high or low --- how does that turn into beating vegas?

 

[FantasyTrader]

I'm not a betting man, but this thread now has almost a dozen people correcting each other on what Vegas is and isn't.

That tells me the correct play is to not play at all.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

.The big diff here is that LJ is supposed to return from his timeout. If'n I were KC, I'd run-run-run til your opponents took your RB away. Thigpen certainly likes like wing it but the Saints won't be able to contain LJ.

The Saints have been pretty respectable against the run. They're 13th in rush yards allowed and their opponents are averaging a very average 4.0/carry.On the other hand they are 30th in pass yards allowed and 32nd in yards/attempt allowed at 7.87. They're also 32nd in opponents' passer rating at 96.9. That was with Mike McKenzie who is now done.

 

[CalBear]

I happened to come upon this article today: http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/20...-underdogs.html

Summary:

Vegas does not always balance betting 50/50 around the line. In fact, betting tends to be balanced 60/40 towards favorites. Vegas is fine with this, because underdogs beat the spread more often.

 

[perry147]

NO 30

KC 20

 

[Ripleys]

I bet you get a free bowl of soup when you take your locks of the week. Looks good on you though!

 

[Judge Smails]

If you got on the line early on the week you won. If not, you pushed. Shoulda been more points - guess those Vegas guys know what they are doing.

 

[Islander]

 

[sjacksonfan]

If you got on the line early on the week you won. If not, you pushed.

What if you bet it this morning and got it at 51?

 

[millertyme1]

FREE MONEY

I got on this last night at 49. Look forward to the 99 Star Lock of the Year next week.

 

[Chunky Soup]

Wait, so this was a lock to push?

 

[Nipsey]

If you got on the line early on the week you won. If not, you pushed.

What if you bet it this morning and got it at 51?

What if you waited until just before kickoff and pounded the under because L-words in titles on this board hit at roughly 6%? FWIW vegas got killed on this game. Sharps drove the number up off the bat then got a nice middle and hit it. Only saving grace for them is public bets late and bets overs.

 

[Blue-Kun]

Free money.

 

[Judge Smails]

If you got on the line early on the week you won. If not, you pushed.

What if you bet it this morning and got it at 51?

then you were a chump for waiting that long.

 

[Judge Smails]

If you got on the line early on the week you won. If not, you pushed.

What if you bet it this morning and got it at 51?

What if you waited until just before kickoff and pounded the under because L-words in titles on this board hit at roughly 6%? FWIW vegas got killed on this game. Sharps drove the number up off the bat then got a nice middle and hit it. Only saving grace for them is public bets late and bets overs.

So you think the sharps loaded up at 48-49 and then dumped on the under at 50 or 51? Interesting. Since I called this game early in the week, I consider me one of the sharps that drove it up.

 

[Ookie Pringle]

If you got on the line early on the week you won. If not, you pushed.

What if you bet it this morning and got it at 51?

What if you waited until just before kickoff and pounded the under because L-words in titles on this board hit at roughly 6%? FWIW vegas got killed on this game. Sharps drove the number up off the bat then got a nice middle and hit it. Only saving grace for them is public bets late and bets overs.

So you think the sharps loaded up at 48-49 and then dumped on the under at 50 or 51? Interesting. Since I called this game early in the week, I consider me one of the sharps that drove it up.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

If you got on the line early on the week you won. If not, you pushed.

What if you bet it this morning and got it at 51?

What if you waited until just before kickoff and pounded the under because L-words in titles on this board hit at roughly 6%? FWIW vegas got killed on this game. Sharps drove the number up off the bat then got a nice middle and hit it. Only saving grace for them is public bets late and bets overs.

So you think the sharps loaded up at 48-49 and then dumped on the under at 50 or 51? Interesting. Since I called this game early in the week, I consider me one of the sharps that drove it up.

The game for a high majority of the people was an under bet. You were wrong, it's OK.

 

[Judge Smails]

Cool. Take glee from it.

Line opened at 48 1/2. 49 early in the week. 1/2 the books had the game today at 50 (LV Hilton, Wynn, Caesars,Har-rah's, etc) half had at 51. Those who bet early won, some pushed, some that got the worst of the line by their book lost. So be it. Made a call, thought it was the right one. Should have been an easy over if KC wasn't kicking 20 yard FG's all day. Didn't expect that vs. the Saints D. Oh well. Knew I should've listend to Nipsey and not use the L word in the title.

FYI - that's specifically why I don't bet football anymore except on the Superbowl. Enough to drive you crazy.