Julio Jones: Playoff WR4 or Unbenchable Stud? (1 Viewer)

[Dylude]

I don't post often, I'm mostly a reader, but I'm curious who is ready to join me and make the playoff decision to bench Julio Jones this week if you have the talent & for who?

Julio's 2012 standard league stats through 13 games:

40.1 points in 7 indoor games vs. 103.5 points in 6 outdoor games

32.6 points in 6 home games vs. 111.0 in 7 road games where his only indoor road matchup was The Saints (7.5 points)

I don't bother to consider the injuries because anyone who has played football on artificial surfaces knows personally how the injury risk increases and how harder indoor surfaces are much more punishing on existing injuries. So I don't see a reason his injuries would obfuscate the truth of these numbers.

I also don't bother to consider matchups because the numbers are definitive and include 2 games vs the soft New Orleans Saints: 4.8 points vs NO at home in the Georgiadome & 7.5 points @ NO in the Superdome.

The argument:

Jones is averaging 5.4 points-per-game at home vs. nearly 16 ppg on the road. That's nearly 3 times better production away from The Georgiadome and I don't care to figure out the reason why, when facts are staring me (and slapping me) in the face. Maybe defenses on the road at Atlanta feel like underdogs and come out swinging aggressively early and Julio or Ryan doesn't rise to the occasion... Maybe the home cooking of the Tony Gonzalez family powers Tony G up and he dominates home TDs or targets.... Maybe Julio is a better "bad ball receiver" than "timing receiver" and the outdoor elements play into that.... Maybe he just prefers motivation from boos... Basically, I don't know what the actual cause of this trend is, and I kinda don't care. The sky was still blue before I knew why, babies were still being born before I knew how to ask a girl out, and before you figure out why Julio is a WR4 at home and a WR1 on the road, I'll be cashing out my Paypal account.

So whatever you think of Julio Jones is probably more wrong than right if you're thinking of him as one WR. You can use whatever best helps you view the two sides of Julio... the sophisticated may say "A Tale of Two WRs" whereas the Daily Show Jon Stewart crowd may think the more current literature would be Paula Broadwell's 2nd biography, "1/3 In: A Memoir of Julio Jones @ The Georgia Dome". As a lifetime Houston Rockets fan, I personally imagine that Julio Jones has a fear of flying (a la Royce White) and he has a secret twin he sends on road games to play in the real Julio's stead. If this news broke this week and all owners had to choose which Jones brother to keep for the rest of the year before Sunday's game, with the other one going to the waiver wire, it's obvious who you'd choose. The real Julio Jones' 5.4 points-per-home-game puts him in WR4-5 territory. Whereas his anxiety-free twin would have been the best WR in fantasy football this year if he replaced Julio at home the way he did on the road.

Unfortunately this wasn't the case, and we can't divorce "road-Julio" from "home-Julio" on our rosters, but we can do so in our starting lineups this week. If the distinction instead was, "Julio averages 3 times fewer points vs top 10 pass defenses" & week 15 he was playing a top 10 pass defense, I think all the smart guys would be saying to sit Julio Jones and it would be self-evident, smart, and savvy all at the same time. We all think like this because we naturally like to understand the facts we ingest before we apply them. It's logical, but also completely illogical. Facts are facts until another fact changes my perspective about the first set of facts. Does anyone know why Julio Jones will repeat his only startable home appearance vs Dallas again vs NYG this weekend? Don't worry, I'll wait.

Philosophy still may justify playing Julio Jones over all but 10-15 other WRs but I still want to hear who is applying philosophy to their actual playoff matchup. Basically, who is putting their $$ on Julio reversing this trend when it matters most at home vs NYG? Playing Julio is still probably the right decision for most owners, especially 3 WR & PPR leagues, and if so post and tell us, who are you playing him over?

 

[BigDave]

I voted WR2. I think he's been a dissapointment this year as a WR1 where we all drafted him.

One of the big issues for me is consistency, which Julio does not have. You can't have your WR1 scoring like a roller coaster:

7 27 1 12 3 15 6 B 23 17 7 3 25 4 12

He's only put two weeks together once this year. He's the 12th ranked WR in my league(we give +5 bonus for>100yds)

I have Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson as my other recievers, so I'm considering bencing him this week.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

That's pretty interesting. Looks like the same thing happened in 2011:

Road: 8 games, 47 rec, 808 yards, 5 TD, 14.3 PPG

Home: 6 games, 14 rec, 215 yards, 3 TD, 7.1 PPG

 

[Shutout]

Very interesting trend and I don't have a clue what may explain it. I think, though, looking at the other side of this, that the pass defense they play has consistently given up plays so I play him unless you have some CLEAR better options.

 

[packersfan]

Julio hasn't been the elite WR1 many (myself included) expected but he starts for me every week.

 

[meyerj31]

DX over Julio this week?

 

[humpback]

Very interesting trend and I don't have a clue what may explain it. I think, though, looking at the other side of this, that the pass defense they play has consistently given up plays so I play him unless you have some CLEAR better options.

I think this is kind of the point- are we deciding who is a clear better option based on his home games or based on his overall season? The list is a lot longer if you're only looking at the home games.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

while his year may be somewhat disappointing (I think many, including myself, thought he would be a monster)....as you said he is still ranked like 12th in most leagues....not many guys in the league have the ability to put up 8-150-3 type games....Julio is one of them....unless your other options are top tier type stuff....if you have him, you play him....

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I doubt there are many teams that would waffle on starting JJ as a WR4. That must be a loaded team. He's pretty much inked into your starting lineup and though he does give you some stinkers, the only way to get the monster games is to keep the faith. In the fantasy playoffs, I'll do and die with JJ in my lineup.

 

[Slapdash]

Julio hasn't been the elite WR1 many (myself included) expected but he starts for me every week.

Hard to bench someone who is capable of blowing up like him. Luckily, he is my WR2 so it makes it easier to tolerate the down weeks.

 

[BigDave]

while his year may be somewhat disappointing (I think many, including myself, thought he would be a monster)....as you said he is still ranked like 12th in most leagues....not many guys in the league have the ability to put up 8-150-3 type games....Julio is one of them....unless your other options are top tier type stuff....if you have him, you play him....

Would you sit him over Marshall and A.Johnson???

 

[Stinkin Ref]

while his year may be somewhat disappointing (I think many, including myself, thought he would be a monster)....as you said he is still ranked like 12th in most leagues....not many guys in the league have the ability to put up 8-150-3 type games....Julio is one of them....unless your other options are top tier type stuff....if you have him, you play him....

Would you sit him over Marshall and A.Johnson???

would be hard to start him over Johnson as I like his matchup....but I would consider him over Marshall this week....got a feeling ATL puts up some numbers this week and I think Julio is a big part of that.....

 

[humpback]

Julio hasn't been the elite WR1 many (myself included) expected but he starts for me every week.

Hard to bench someone who is capable of blowing up like him. Luckily, he is my WR2 so it makes it easier to tolerate the down weeks.

Most people aren't going to have better options, so you put him in and hope for the best. However, guys who have to pick between Julio, AJ, Marshall, Alexander, etc. have a much tougher choice to make.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Julio hasn't been the elite WR1 many (myself included) expected but he starts for me every week.

Hard to bench someone who is capable of blowing up like him.

The numbers are pretty strange, though. Julio's basically scored 20+ points (PPR) 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road. The one time he did it at home, he only had 4 catches for 76 yards but 2 of them happened to go for TDs. Other than those 2 TDs, he's only caught one other TD in his entire career at home! He has three other 2-TD games in his career, all on the road obviously. On the flipside, he's also basically scored 10 points or less 9 times in his career - and all 9 of them were at home. He's also gone over 100 yards 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road.The guy really is just putting up very different numbers at home vs. on the road, both this year and last year. If you look at just his road games he's super-elite; if you look at just his home games, he's a complete bust with two good games thrown in. It could just be a fluke, of course, but it's kind of striking and it's something to consider if you have any other options, even ones you might not normally consider starting over Jones.

 

[JPeso]

You don't bench Julio. I was forced to bench him in favor of Dez in a couple until I was given the finger. Trotting 11 out with confidence.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

You don't bench Julio. I was forced to bench him in favor of Dez in a couple until I was given the finger. Trotting 11 out with confidence.

He caught 5 for 85 and a TD on 6 targest in Week 15 last year against Jacksonville.Went on to catch 8 for 128 and a TD in 15 targets in Week 16 against New Orleans (indoors).He didn't singlehandedly keep me from winning the championship last year in the playoffs (we do a week 15 + 16 combined playoff) but he was a big part of it. So I drafted him this year. I'm playing him and expecting him to perform well, if not dominate.

 

[Warpig]

I have Julio AND Brandon Marshall benched. Julio just hasn't been reliable and I am starting Alfred Morris in their place. Marshall had a stinker against GB last time they played and I'm sure he'll have Tramon draped all over him.

I'm loaded at WR so I can afford to bench Julio. But his games have certainly been trending.

 

[chad in Indy]

I'm in same boat. really tempted to play either Wayne or Britt over him. Wayne is consistent with almost a guarantee of a minimum 7-9 pts. Britt is more of a gut check call and obviously is super unproven this year, but he finally looked explosive last week.

 

[donkshow]

He will never see my bench unless he's injured.

At any moment he could catch a 60+ yard TD.

 

[Please See Mine]

Already a thread covering a lot of this stuff about the splits.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=665219

 

[packersfan]

At any moment he could catch a 60+ yard TD.

If you're in a league that awards bonus points for any long TDs I don't think you can ever bench Julio if he plays unless you have amazing WR depth.

 

[stbugs]

while his year may be somewhat disappointing (I think many, including myself, thought he would be a monster)....as you said he is still ranked like 12th in most leagues....not many guys in the league have the ability to put up 8-150-3 type games....Julio is one of them....unless your other options are top tier type stuff....if you have him, you play him....

Would you sit him over Marshall and A.Johnson???

would be hard to start him over Johnson as I like his matchup....but I would consider him over Marshall this week....got a feeling ATL puts up some numbers this week and I think Julio is a big part of that.....

How in the world would you ever consider anyone over Marshall? The only way might be if you have Calvin and you start 1 WR. Marshall is the #1WR and has only 1 bad game (10 in PPR) against the SF defense since week 3. Other than that in PPR, he has been going between 19 and 39. He has 101-1342-9TDs in 13 games. He is on the bench for no one.

 

[packersfan]

Marshall had a poor game against the Packers in Week 2 but I agree that the only WR I'd bench him for right now is Megatron.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Julio hasn't been the elite WR1 many (myself included) expected but he starts for me every week.

Hard to bench someone who is capable of blowing up like him.

The numbers are pretty strange, though. Julio's basically scored 20+ points (PPR) 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road. The one time he did it at home, he only had 4 catches for 76 yards but 2 of them happened to go for TDs. Other than those 2 TDs, he's only caught one other TD in his entire career at home! He has three other 2-TD games in his career, all on the road obviously. On the flipside, he's also basically scored 10 points or less 9 times in his career - and all 9 of them were at home. He's also gone over 100 yards 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road.The guy really is just putting up very different numbers at home vs. on the road, both this year and last year. If you look at just his road games he's super-elite; if you look at just his home games, he's a complete bust with two good games thrown in. It could just be a fluke, of course, but it's kind of striking and it's something to consider if you have any other options, even ones you might not normally consider starting over Jones.

just can't quite buy into the thought that the reason I am benching one of my studs is because he is playing at home indoors.....say that out loud 3 times if there were other compelling reasons, maybe....but I got to chalk this one up to fluke city.....

 

[stbugs]

I have Julio AND Brandon Marshall benched. Julio just hasn't been reliable and I am starting Alfred Morris in their place. Marshall had a stinker against GB last time they played and I'm sure he'll have Tramon draped all over him. I'm loaded at WR so I can afford to bench Julio. But his games have certainly been trending.

Insane. GB's pass defense and overall defense was far better back then. They killed Cutler. I just can't ever see benching Marshall, just plain insane. Seattle's pass defense (before Browner's suspsension) is way better than GB and he went for 10-165. He had 2-21 1TD against SF with Campbell starting and even then he had a couple wide open plays where Campbell missed him.With Cutler, his worst game since week 3 is 9-98 or 8-107 or 6-81 1TD depending on your scoring. That includes games against Seattle, Dallas, Carolina, Minny, Detroit and Houston, who are all about the same or better than GB.

 

[packersfan]

The other thing about Julio is the Falcons are showing no indication they'll move away from Turner in the running game. Outside of his 1-yard TD runs and the first drive against the Saints Turner hasn't done much of anything lately. So the longer they keep trying to use him that could mean more reliance on the passing game given how ineffective Turner has been.

 

[stbugs]

Marshall had a poor game against the Packers in Week 2 but I agree that the only WR I'd bench him for right now is Megatron.

Correct, but you would have to say GB's defense was better back then and it was also only the 2nd game for Cutler and Marshall to gel again. Whole different world right now. Looking at my MFL page, GB's pass defense was ranked #2 in week 2 and #17 right now on Marshall's player page.

 

[packersfan]

Marshall had a poor game against the Packers in Week 2 but I agree that the only WR I'd bench him for right now is Megatron.

Correct, but you would have to say GB's defense was better back then and it was also only the 2nd game for Cutler and Marshall to gel again. Whole different world right now. Looking at my MFL page, GB's pass defense was ranked #2 in week 2 and #17 right now on Marshall's player page.

We're in agreement about Marshall. I don't see how you can bench him in any league right now. As far as the Packers, their defense has been hit or miss all season. They were pathetic in Week 1 against the Niners but then looked like world beaters against the Bears in Week 2. But as I posted in another thread, Cutler generally doesn't play well against the Packers. That wouldn't keep me away from Marshall, though. Cutler could stink up the joint and Marshall could still have a great game given the volume he's getting each week.

 

[stbugs]

Marshall had a poor game against the Packers in Week 2 but I agree that the only WR I'd bench him for right now is Megatron.

Correct, but you would have to say GB's defense was better back then and it was also only the 2nd game for Cutler and Marshall to gel again. Whole different world right now. Looking at my MFL page, GB's pass defense was ranked #2 in week 2 and #17 right now on Marshall's player page.

We're in agreement about Marshall. I don't see how you can bench him in any league right now. As far as the Packers, their defense has been hit or miss all season. They were pathetic in Week 1 against the Niners but then looked like world beaters against the Bears in Week 2. But as I posted in another thread, Cutler generally doesn't play well against the Packers. That wouldn't keep me away from Marshall, though. Cutler could stink up the joint and Marshall could still have a great game given the volume he's getting each week.

Agreed. He had 5 targets that game and the only other game like that was Campbell against the 49ers with 4 targets and one was a TD. He had 8 targets against the Cowboys and still had 7-138 1TD. Other than that he has had at least 10 targets including games of 13, 14, 14, 15, 17, 17 and 19 with 17, 14 and 19 the last three weeks. If Cutler gets close to 200 yards, Marshall is almost guaranteed to get over 100. Not too many guys other than Calvin you can say that about. I wanted Marshall in all 3 of my leagues and only got him in 1 and there isn't another guy on my team I trust more.That said, knocking on wood right now as I don't want to jinx him. Just cannot even fathom benching Marshall since I own him this year. I have Green, Thomas and Cruz on other teams and there is no scenario even if I could only start one that I would bench Marshall right now if Cutler plays.

 

[Dylude]

I took the time to write the post because this is where as owners we have to live up to what we preach. Are the playoffs about shrewd decisions or aspirational plays? I feel we have 13 data points on Julio, up to us to use them or ignore them.

There is a definitive trend that Juio doesn't preform at home so unless there is a reason to explain this that wouldn't apply this week vs NYG, I'm starting Reggie Wayne and Danario Alexander over Julio. I may flex Julio over Demarco vs Pitt, but I can see many reasons to take Murray's floor depending on how I feel about the playoff matchup.

Someone said that it just doesn't sound right to bench someone for playing indoors, but if you had all season, you would have only benched Julio for one game where we scored more than 6-7 points. Just because it doesn't sound plausible doesn't take me off this position, the trend is slapping me in the face.

So Reggie Wayne and Danario Alexander over Julio for me.

I agree with Andre and Marshall as well. Any others? Kenny Britt now that Cook has gone down could easily have a bigger game than Julio and I'd understand someone being shrewd (or paranoid) enough to make that play.

 

[humpback]

Julio hasn't been the elite WR1 many (myself included) expected but he starts for me every week.

Hard to bench someone who is capable of blowing up like him.

The numbers are pretty strange, though. Julio's basically scored 20+ points (PPR) 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road. The one time he did it at home, he only had 4 catches for 76 yards but 2 of them happened to go for TDs. Other than those 2 TDs, he's only caught one other TD in his entire career at home! He has three other 2-TD games in his career, all on the road obviously. On the flipside, he's also basically scored 10 points or less 9 times in his career - and all 9 of them were at home. He's also gone over 100 yards 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road.The guy really is just putting up very different numbers at home vs. on the road, both this year and last year. If you look at just his road games he's super-elite; if you look at just his home games, he's a complete bust with two good games thrown in. It could just be a fluke, of course, but it's kind of striking and it's something to consider if you have any other options, even ones you might not normally consider starting over Jones.

just can't quite buy into the thought that the reason I am benching one of my studs is because he is playing at home indoors.....say that out loud 3 times if there were other compelling reasons, maybe....but I got to chalk this one up to fluke city.....

It does sound crazy to say because it's counter-intuitive, but it's just as crazy to call it "fluke city". This is a very clear trend covering both of his seasons. We can hope it's a fluke, but it doesn't appear to be the case so far. It would be more of a fluke if he had a huge game this week based on what we've seen up until now.

 

[Dylude]

Julio hasn't been the elite WR1 many (myself included) expected but he starts for me every week.

Hard to bench someone who is capable of blowing up like him.

The numbers are pretty strange, though. Julio's basically scored 20+ points (PPR) 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road. The one time he did it at home, he only had 4 catches for 76 yards but 2 of them happened to go for TDs. Other than those 2 TDs, he's only caught one other TD in his entire career at home! He has three other 2-TD games in his career, all on the road obviously. On the flipside, he's also basically scored 10 points or less 9 times in his career - and all 9 of them were at home. He's also gone over 100 yards 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road.The guy really is just putting up very different numbers at home vs. on the road, both this year and last year. If you look at just his road games he's super-elite; if you look at just his home games, he's a complete bust with two good games thrown in. It could just be a fluke, of course, but it's kind of striking and it's something to consider if you have any other options, even ones you might not normally consider starting over Jones.

just can't quite buy into the thought that the reason I am benching one of my studs is because he is playing at home indoors.....say that out loud 3 times if there were other compelling reasons, maybe....but I got to chalk this one up to fluke city.....

It does sound crazy to say because it's counter-intuitive, but it's just as crazy to call it "fluke city". This is a very clear trend covering both of his seasons. We can hope it's a fluke, but it doesn't appear to be the case so far. It would be more of a fluke if he had a huge game this week based on what we've seen up until now.

Yes. This is exactly the point. It sounds counter-intuitive but it's too obvious to overlook if you consider yourself a logical owner and not an aspirational owner. We want to be able to understand facts before we apply them, but that's irrelevant because facts ought to determine the way we think of a player, and I think "home-Julio" is a WR3/4 and "road-Julio" is better than Calvin Johnson. I don't care why, I just know if I had been benching "home-Julio", I wouldn't have lost a single game in my main $$ league this year, no time like the present to right the wrong..... So I'm benching Julio Jones in the first round of the playoffs for Danario Alexander & Reggie Wayne at WR. Pretty much set on also benching him for Demarco at flex (Numbers always tell me to flex RBs in standard leagues over almost any WR when they get 1st/2nd down and goal line work).

 

[Sleeperz]

Ive been watching this trend all year and starting him mostly when hes away. Ive had him since last year and watched the same thing happen. I think its a turf/grass thing and Roddy is the man at home. Its hard to fight past the numbers and feel confident about starting him this week. Although, I admit its tough as hell to bench him with the season on the line. I always feel like he could blow up any given week.

With that said, I may roll with Wallace now that Ben is back.

 

[donkshow]

I'll be the stubborn guy that loses Round 2 because I refused to bench HomeJulio.

 

[JPeso]

I'll be the stubborn guy that loses Round 2 because I refused to bench HomeJulio.

 

[humpback]

I'll be the stubborn guy that loses Round 2 because I refused to bench HomeJulio.

Do you have other good options? I'm starting him as well, but have to sit either Welker or Alexander- not so easy.

 

[packseasontix]

I don't have Julio in any leagues but its funny how people try to ignore 2 seasons of Home/Away splits yet some no name player has 1 big week and they are the next big thing. Look at Bryce Brown after his 1 good game, people were trying to say he could surplant McCoy...

When you start getting into 2 years of trends it paints a picture.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Okay, the trends say one thing BUT...Roddy White doesn't seem to be healthy. Missing a Thursday practice means something imo, and that might mean they rely on Julio more in this game.

All things being equal, Julio seems to be a weaker play at home. But are all things things equal this particular week?

 

[Quibbler]

Even the possibility that Roddy is gimpy pushes Julio into must-start territory, IMO.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Julio hasn't been the elite WR1 many (myself included) expected but he starts for me every week.

Hard to bench someone who is capable of blowing up like him.

The numbers are pretty strange, though. Julio's basically scored 20+ points (PPR) 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road. The one time he did it at home, he only had 4 catches for 76 yards but 2 of them happened to go for TDs. Other than those 2 TDs, he's only caught one other TD in his entire career at home! He has three other 2-TD games in his career, all on the road obviously. On the flipside, he's also basically scored 10 points or less 9 times in his career - and all 9 of them were at home.

He's also gone over 100 yards 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road.

The guy really is just putting up very different numbers at home vs. on the road, both this year and last year. If you look at just his road games he's super-elite; if you look at just his home games, he's a complete bust with two good games thrown in. It could just be a fluke, of course, but it's kind of striking and it's something to consider if you have any other options, even ones you might not normally consider starting over Jones.

just can't quite buy into the thought that the reason I am benching one of my studs is because he is playing at home indoors.....say that out loud 3 times if there were other compelling reasons, maybe....but I got to chalk this one up to fluke city.....

It does sound crazy to say because it's counter-intuitive, but it's just as crazy to call it "fluke city". This is a very clear trend covering both of his seasons. We can hope it's a fluke, but it doesn't appear to be the case so far. It would be more of a fluke if he had a huge game this week based on what we've seen up until now.

Yes. This is exactly the point. It sounds counter-intuitive but it's too obvious to overlook if you consider yourself a logical owner and not an aspirational owner. We want to be able to understand facts before we apply them, but that's irrelevant because facts ought to determine the way we think of a player, and I think "home-Julio" is a WR3/4 and "road-Julio" is better than Calvin Johnson. I don't care why, I just know if I had been benching "home-Julio", I wouldn't have lost a single game in my main $$ league this year, no time like the present to right the wrong..... So I'm benching Julio Jones in the first round of the playoffs for Danario Alexander & Reggie Wayne at WR. Pretty much set on also benching him for Demarco at flex (Numbers always tell me to flex RBs in standard leagues over almost any WR when they get 1st/2nd down and goal line work).

bolded above...this doesn't really add much to the discussion....because somebody else on your team during those games you lost could have easliy "blown up" and covered the points you thought Julio should have gotten you.....and during those weeks, who else on your team had sub par games that contributed to your loss.....?it's easy to go back after the fact and find somebody on your bench who if you would have played for Julio would have gotten you a W.....you could do that with almost any player throughout the year....

 

[The Ref]

This game vs NY is going to be a shootout, probably the highest scoring game of the weekend. With White hurting it is a very good chance Julio will be the #1 Target for Atlanta. Like Terry Glenn used to say, you do the math.

 

[steelcityman]

what is ATLs record in home games since JJ showed up? Maybe they just beat people and dont need to throw as much, run Turner and Rodgers more.

I think NYG could push ATL this weekend and force ATL to keep pedal to metal.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

the "experts" here at FBG aren't buying into this stuff obviously as he ranked 7 or higher this week by all of them.....I doubt if you will find many "expert" rankings across the board this week that have him outside of the top 10....

point is....well there really is none.... other than the fact that those that are kind of paid to be in the know on these type of things aren't giving it much credit....they ain't buying

just wonder how many good games he has to have from here on out to put this puppy to bed...?....if he blows up this week, is it over....or just another "fluke" to add to the handful of other "fluke" good games he has at home...?

I ask that kind of tongue in cheek, but also with some seriousness....what (specifically how many good games at home) would it take for those buying into this pattern to call it quits and admit there was really nothing to see here...

if I had to bet...I'd be willing to say that by two years from now we will be able to look back at this thread and laugh...I think by then he will have enough good games at home to make this "theory" laughable....

and I got a feeling it starts this weekend....

the results of the poll above pretty much show that not many people give this much thought....

 

[packseasontix]

if I had to bet...I'd be willing to say that by two years from now we will be able to look back at this thread and laugh...I think by then he will have enough good games at home to make this "theory" laughable....and I got a feeling it starts this weekend....the results of the poll above pretty much show that not many people give this much thought....

When do you think things are more likely to change?During the season on their way to the #1 seed in a game they need to win to pretty much lock up home field advantage? Or during the off-season when they have time to prepare and change how the gameplan will look?

 

[just_want_2_win]

I voted WR2. I think he's been a dissapointment this year as a WR1 where we all drafted him. One of the big issues for me is consistency, which Julio does not have. You can't have your WR1 scoring like a roller coaster: 7 27 1 12 3 15 6 B 23 17 7 3 25 4 12He's only put two weeks together once this year. He's the 12th ranked WR in my league(we give +5 bonus for>100yds)I have Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson as my other recievers, so I'm considering bencing him this week.

I voted for option #2 -- WR1 but not elite. Sure, WRs are inherently more inconsistent than QBs or RBs but BigDave nailed it -- Julio is too feast or famine to be considered elite at this point. While he won me a couple games for the one team I had him on, he lost me a couple, too (close losses where he fizzled, like in week 3).Meanwhile, I see teams with Marshall not only getting almost always steady production but a few huge games too.That said, if you play in 3 WR leagues, I just don't see how you can sit Julio unless he's hurt.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

if I had to bet...I'd be willing to say that by two years from now we will be able to look back at this thread and laugh...I think by then he will have enough good games at home to make this "theory" laughable....and I got a feeling it starts this weekend....the results of the poll above pretty much show that not many people give this much thought....

When do you think things are more likely to change?During the season on their way to the #1 seed in a game they need to win to pretty much lock up home field advantage? Or during the off-season when they have time to prepare and change how the gameplan will look?

I think he puts some of this to bed before this season ends (over the next 3 games, 2 at home and the third an indoor game)...that is if he gets to play much....and then also in the playoffs....I expand that time frame slightly (on into next year) to make it into the "laughable" category....for those that are really buying into this in this thread....he will have blow up games at home in the future and soon it will be guys saying " I would have won every one of my big money league games if I wouldn't have bought into that stupid theory that says bench Julio at home"...although those that buy into this theory won't draft him at all next year....cause they will only be able to use him for 8 games or less.....

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I voted WR2. I think he's been a dissapointment this year as a WR1 where we all drafted him.

One of the big issues for me is consistency, which Julio does not have. You can't have your WR1 scoring like a roller coaster:

7 27 1 12 3 15 6 B 23 17 7 3 25 4 12

He's only put two weeks together once this year. He's the 12th ranked WR in my league(we give +5 bonus for>100yds)

I have Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson as my other recievers, so I'm considering bencing him this week.

I voted for option #2 -- WR1 but not elite. Sure, WRs are inherently more inconsistent than QBs or RBs but BigDave nailed it -- Julio is too feast or famine to be considered elite at this point. While he won me a couple games for the one team I had him on, he lost me a couple, too (close losses where he fizzled, like in week 3).Meanwhile, I see teams with Marshall not only getting almost always steady production but a few huge games too.

That said, if you play in 3 WR leagues, I just don't see how you can sit Julio unless he's hurt.

who else on your teams could you say this about.....oh wait...all of your other guys had good games each week...

 

[packersfan]

those that buy into this theory won't draft him at all next year.

I hope the 11 owners in my league buy into this theory and avoid him. Jones won't be a first-round pick like he was this year but I still think he's the type of talent you can win big with. I'll be pursuing him aggressively again next year.

 

[humpback]

what is ATLs record in home games since JJ showed up? Maybe they just beat people and dont need to throw as much, run Turner and Rodgers more.I think NYG could push ATL this weekend and force ATL to keep pedal to metal.

They are undefeated at home, but they've played some pretty close games- beat Carolina by 2, Oakland by 3, Dallas by 6, Arizona by 4, etc. Plus, White has been a monster at home, that's part of this "trend".

 

[just_want_2_win]

I voted WR2. I think he's been a dissapointment this year as a WR1 where we all drafted him.

One of the big issues for me is consistency, which Julio does not have. You can't have your WR1 scoring like a roller coaster:

7 27 1 12 3 15 6 B 23 17 7 3 25 4 12

He's only put two weeks together once this year. He's the 12th ranked WR in my league(we give +5 bonus for>100yds)

I have Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson as my other recievers, so I'm considering bencing him this week.

I voted for option #2 -- WR1 but not elite. Sure, WRs are inherently more inconsistent than QBs or RBs but BigDave nailed it -- Julio is too feast or famine to be considered elite at this point. While he won me a couple games for the one team I had him on, he lost me a couple, too (close losses where he fizzled, like in week 3). Meanwhile, I see teams with Marshall not only getting almost always steady production but a few huge games too.

That said, if you play in 3 WR leagues, I just don't see how you can sit Julio unless he's hurt.

who else on your teams could you say this about.....oh wait...all of your other guys had good games each week...

Of course you can say that about everyone else. But I drafted Julio with a high pick to have the big games when he's supposed to have 'em. The rest of my roster did very well in week 3...he was the only disappointment (a big one) and if he had even had just a decent game I'd have won. Instead he disappeared. As he did in 5 other games this year, if you look at those numbers above.