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Julio Jones: Playoff WR4 or Unbenchable Stud? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Dylude
- Start date
Yeah, I'd consider a 24-point fantasy performance somewhere north of "optimistic" given that, the last time his team played the Giants, the entire Atlanta offense put up a big, juicy goose egg.As someone upthread noted: We have 13 data points on him this season already (even leaving out all of last season, when he displayed the same tendencies). Thirteen data points are more than enough to make a trend.And the trend says #11 is feast-or-famine generally and an iffy matchup at home specifically.
What's the best way to handle feast-or-famine players? You avoid them if your team is otherwise favored and needs relative consistency from the position; you start them if you're otherwise an underdog and need a player or two to blow up to win.
If you've got someone like Marques Colston or Steven Jackson as an alternative, he's a good bet to put up somewhere between 8-10 points. Compared to Julio, the other two are quite a bit less likely to put up 25 this week. They're also quite a bit less likely to put up 2.
So you start Colston or S-Jax if you see yourself as a TD or so favorite, and Julio if you think you're a TD or so underdog.
Disclaimer: 95% of people who own #11 aren't going to be faced with this dilemma. They don't have another guy on their bench who is a threat to score 25. But for the 5% of people who do, it's worth pondering.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
All I know is there is absolutely no one on my team Id consider benching or flexing for him, and I finished in 1st, so its sort of a moot point.
T J
Footballguy
No doubt. There is not a scenario under the sun I would bench Marshall. That's crazy talk.
JPeso
Footballguy
Who are you starting instead?
Dylude
Footballguy
Yeah, Roddy White never misses a game though so early in the week it wasn't much of a concern for me, but if Roddy White doesn't play, for this week I would throw this trend out the window and start Julio Jones for sure. He had big games in the playoffs last year at home, so we all know its possible. Roddy White being out just makes it more likely to a degree I'd put my $$ on.
My point was that as a consistent RULE I would have been correct 100% of the time. People who disagree with me, can't hide behind "common sense" arguments because the numbers contradict "common sense". So either justify your philosophy in disregarding the facts, or explain the facts to me in a way that makes benching Julio at home not just sound ludicrous, but actually logically be ludicrous.'Stinkin Ref said:bolded above...this doesn't really add much to the discussion....because somebody else on your team during those games you lost could have easliy "blown up" and covered the points you thought Julio should have gotten you.....and during those weeks, who else on your team had sub par games that contributed to your loss.....?it's easy to go back after the fact and find somebody on your bench who if you would have played for Julio would have gotten you a W.....you could do that with almost any player throughout the year....Yes. This is exactly the point. It sounds counter-intuitive but it's too obvious to overlook if you consider yourself a logical owner and not an aspirational owner. We want to be able to understand facts before we apply them, but that's irrelevant because facts ought to determine the way we think of a player, and I think "home-Julio" is a WR3/4 and "road-Julio" is better than Calvin Johnson. I don't care why, I just know if I had been benching "home-Julio", I wouldn't have lost a single game in my main $$ league this year, no time like the present to right the wrong..... So I'm benching Julio Jones in the first round of the playoffs for Danario Alexander & Reggie Wayne at WR. Pretty much set on also benching him for Demarco at flex (Numbers always tell me to flex RBs in standard leagues over almost any WR when they get 1st/2nd down and goal line work).It does sound crazy to say because it's counter-intuitive, but it's just as crazy to call it "fluke city". This is a very clear trend covering both of his seasons. We can hope it's a fluke, but it doesn't appear to be the case so far. It would be more of a fluke if he had a huge game this week based on what we've seen up until now.just can't quite buy into the thought that the reason I am benching one of my studs is because he is playing at home indoors.....say that out loud 3 times if there were other compelling reasons, maybe....but I got to chalk this one up to fluke city.....The numbers are pretty strange, though. Julio's basically scored 20+ points (PPR) 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road. The one time he did it at home, he only had 4 catches for 76 yards but 2 of them happened to go for TDs. Other than those 2 TDs, he's only caught one other TD in his entire career at home! He has three other 2-TD games in his career, all on the road obviously. On the flipside, he's also basically scored 10 points or less 9 times in his career - and all 9 of them were at home.Hard to bench someone who is capable of blowing up like him.
He's also gone over 100 yards 9 times in his career - and 8 of them were on the road.
The guy really is just putting up very different numbers at home vs. on the road, both this year and last year. If you look at just his road games he's super-elite; if you look at just his home games, he's a complete bust with two good games thrown in. It could just be a fluke, of course, but it's kind of striking and it's something to consider if you have any other options, even ones you might not normally consider starting over Jones.
Roddy White not playing -> disregard this trend, makes logical sense.
Saying it sounds dumb to retroactively evaluate if you should have benched Julio at home all season -> disregard this trend, makes zero sense.
I'll say it one more time, if Julio averaged 5.4 ppg vs. top 10 pass defenses & 16 ppg vs everyone else, and if NYG was a top 5 pass defense this week, all the "smart guys" would be saying bench Julio because they're smart enough to look at strength of schedule (and this wouldn't mean they would be surprised if he blew up, they are just saying that it's more likely than not that the trend will hold). But not all players are the same so SOS doesn't always paint the best picture, some players rise to the occasion vs difficult matchups, some don't, and maybe Julio is motivated by boo's from the crowd, by traveling into hostile territory, by being outdoors on grass vs hard unforgiving turf. I don't know and if Roddy White plays I won't really care because Julio will be on the bench.
Some people said Welker and Wallace were possibilities and I agree, if Roddy White is active, I'd play them both over Julio.
silentcoach
Footballguy
Julio will do just fine this game. If you have three wrs better than julio this week, then you shouldn't even worry about losing this week 
.
.silentcoach
Footballguy
Because you guys like data, below are Julio's stats versus the bottom half in pass defense.
sd :5 for 67 1 td
wsh: 10 for 94 1 td
oak: 4 for 63
tb: 6 for 147 1 td
nola : 5 for 48
Average = 6 receptions for 83.8 yds and 0.6 tds.
Where does NYG pass defense rank? 27. Yeah, start Julio.
sd :5 for 67 1 td
wsh: 10 for 94 1 td
oak: 4 for 63
tb: 6 for 147 1 td
nola : 5 for 48
Average = 6 receptions for 83.8 yds and 0.6 tds.
Where does NYG pass defense rank? 27. Yeah, start Julio.
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He just scares the crap out of me because of his inconsistency.
Your #1 WR should not be a hit or miss each week like Julio this year.
I have Marshall and A.Johnson and can't decide to play Julio over either.
With White playing today, that's less targets for Julio as well.
Convince me otherwise, please
Your #1 WR should not be a hit or miss each week like Julio this year.
I have Marshall and A.Johnson and can't decide to play Julio over either.
With White playing today, that's less targets for Julio as well.
Convince me otherwise, please
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sporthenry
Footballguy
hopefully this topic is put out of it's misery for good....
nothing more to see here....
nothing more to see here....
silentcoach
Footballguy
Even better than expected. Home/Away stats only matter until it doesn't. Who the Faclons played was a more important factor imo and it showed.
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OrangeCurtain
Footballguy
Other than poking a little fun at the guys who totally overthought this decision.There's a good lesson in statistics here somewhere...
Nucker101
Footballguy
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
Oof
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