Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

[unckeyherb]

Why all the ruffles over semantics? Just because you "project" someone to get 1500 and 15 does it mean it's some sort of failure if he goes 1380 and 12 and doesn't hit these historical benchmarks? Who cares is he doesn't get exactly 90-1500-15. What if he gets 82 - 1380 - 12. Then what? he won't show up on your "historical data sheet" but you'll still end up looking back and saying he was well worth the early pick.The point of all this is that I , along with others, think he'll be the #2 WR and well worth a late first round pick in a ppr league where QB's only get 4 pt per TD.If anyone wants to poke holes in those last 2 sentences and state your case I welcome it. In one of my post above I pretty much laid out the other consensus guys going in the last 1st/early 2nd range. Would absolutely love to hear from some of you as to whom you think presents a better risk/reward profile than Julio from that spot.

Out of curiosity, what are you projecting for Calvin and what are you projecting for Roddy.

 

[LHUCKS]

The more I watch and here about Julio Jones, the more difficult it gets to not target him in WR leagues. He may very well be the next big thing at WR. I'm comfortable with his ADP and he strikes me as a pick that plays to win.

 

[DeaLerZ]

I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.

He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's

Sounds to me like you are taking their bait.

Not sure what bait that would be since I'm basing it on conversations we all had amongst ourselves BEFORE the draft order came out.Point is....when you have a gut feeling about a guy you take him. Look at the option between picks #8 - #14

ADP - Completely off my board since I wouldn't draft him until at least the 3rd round and he'll be gone way before that based on name value alone. Want to talk about history? Let's discuss the drop off in productivity the year following ACL surgery....and it's not like ADP doesn't already have some mileage on him

Charles - I don't care if it happened in week 1 or week 16. An ACL surgery is an ACL surgery. Plus you're spending a pick this high on a guy who's going to be sharing carries and losing all goal line work.

Murray - Anyone who cites injuries or youth/inexperience/sample size as a case against Julio and then advocates taking Murray above him is quite possibly the biggest hypocrite in the history of this message board

MJD - Holding out. No end in sight. Already has a ton of mileage and a backup who looks like he's capable of running with the job if the holdout extends. This pick is the definition of risk.

Chris Johnson - Same as ADP with regards to being off my draft board based on the relative position he gets drafted. I've seen this movie before...it's the one where the guy gets paid a boat load of cash and loses the hunger to excel. We're not talking about a guy who had a bad year cause he got hurt...this guy played all 16 games and never found his groove. If I hear the "even with that he still finished in the top 10" argument again I may throw up. Ask any CJ owner who took him in the first round last year if those "top 10 numbers" helped their teams. The fact is almost any RB with a pulse in the NFL who stays healthy for a full 16 games and gets the workload he gets could stumble into a 1,000 yard season by accident. For the love of humanity, I still remember Kareem Abdul Jabaar getting 1,000 yards for the Phins back in the day. It's a pure volume stat....and furthermore it's not like you're getting him at a discount this year. He'll still cost you a first round pick.

Marshawn Lynch - My league is PPR...with TD's being such a fickle stat I have a hard time taking a guy who doesn't get a lot of receptions this high. Plus...Lynch was mediocre for a good 2 -3 years before he suddenly burst back on the scene in Seattle. I'm skeptical here.

And before anyone brings it up I know for a fact McFadden and Forte will be gone before I pick. It's against my religion to take a QB in the first round of a 4 pt passing td that has ppr.

The only argument I can understand is Jimmy Graham. But in a ultra competitive 12 man league with a flex position you're going to have a hard time recovering throughout the draft in terms of depth at rb/wr if you take a TE this early. I see more value waiting til round 3 or 4 and taking Gates if you really want to take a TE early.

So yeah...given his immediate neighbors in ADP land I just don't see how Julio is a bad pick at 1.08. I'd love to hear arguments on who offers his same upside in this range. This is a league where not many QB's will go in the first...it's entirely possible that one of the big 3 QB's or even Graham could make it back to me in the 2nd. Meanwhile there is zero chance Julio makes it back to me in the 2nd.

It should be noted I'm an upside down drafter to begin with...but even then I can't see the logic in taking any of the options above even if I was hell bent on taking a RB in this range.

I have been reading your posts man... i am high on Julio as well.. I am more in the ballpark of 80 rec, 1400yds, 10-15tds.. but regardless like you said.. it doesn't really matter what the projections are.. it just matters if they were worth the pick..What i was going to say is who cares what any one else thinks?? Again like you said... it only matters which players you think are going to blow up, and to win fantasy championships you have to have balls... and the less people that agree with you the better anyways... because than you are more likely to get him where you want too...

i would whole heartedly take him at the end of the 1st, top of the 2nd... because much like you i think the guy is like the next Terrell Owens type player.. and the only thing holding his numbers back are Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez.. which is why I don't think his receptions will be as high.. but I think his yards and TD's will be top 5 in the league.. and having that much confidence in a player is well worth the value of a late 1st, early 2nd rounder

 

[The Jerk]

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's

To add some historical perspective, a WR has posted a statline such as this only 6 times in history. 3 of these instances were by Jerry Rice. Calvin '11, Randy Moss '03 & Marvin Harrison '01 being the other 3 times.

Well, that depends on which part of or how close to the statline you are looking for.Moss did it in 2007 as well (98-1493-23), nearly in 2002 (106-1347-7), 2000 (77-1437-15), and 1999 (80-1413-11) and even 1998 (69-1313-17).

If you take that production in FPs, we are looking at 240 fantasy points (non-ppr because the historical data dominator lists FPs that way) and give just a bit of leeway, we have 22 WRs that scored 230 fantasy points or more.

I wouldn't PROJECT anybody for 1500-15, but it wouldn't surprise me if Julio was in that ballpark.

I'll add that the rules and strategies of the NFL have never been so biased toward enabling stratospheric passing and receiving numbers. If there's ever a time to think all-time seasons are more likely than now, I can't recall it. I have a hard time believing a second-year player can achieve the consistent excellence over an entire season that is required to hit these numbers -- whether it be due to injury or scheme. But there is no question in my mind that he has the second highest projected ceiling among WRs in the draft.

 

[The Jerk]

But when I see so many people on the train, it almost scares me. I thought I was alone a few months ago.

The same could easily have been said about Stafford 12 months ago.For me, the one thing clearly worse than jumping on the train only to see it wreck far short of expectations is not jumping on that same train and seeing it go all the way down the tracks.In the end, it's not all about what everyone else is thinking. It's what you're thinking. I drafted Romo in the 4th round last year, but there was no way I was going to let Stafford go to anyone else once he dropped into the 7th round of my league. If I had either feared the "train" or worried about taking two QBs in the first 7 rounds, I almost certainly would not have won the championship game last year.In situations like these, I want it to be MY team, MY pick. There is no doubt Jones could end up at or even below last year's numbers, but that's why they play the games. No one is risk-free. And as others have said, drafting in the 9th-16th picks this year doesn't set up to traditional approaches. I'd rather go down both with my gut and going for the championship rather than regretting having taken the "safe" pick when a player like Jones is involved. Usually, I prefer safe early picks, but the more I think about it, the more I feel like this pick is nearly as safe as others up for the same slot.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Honestly, this Julio Jones hype reminds me of Finley from two years ago...and we all know how that turned out (Finley was a disappointment before he got hurt).

I think Jones can definitely be pretty dynamite this year, but I am seeing him go in the first round in many mock drafts and has been one of the top 5 most expensive WRs in several auctions I have done, which I think is major overreaching. He basically has to produce how most are viewing his ceiling to justify that price, and call me crazy, but that is an awful lot of fantasy hype to live up to, especially for a guy who has never done it before (which we usually like to see out of WRs first, as opposed to RBs).

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Honestly, this Julio Jones hype reminds me of Finley from two years ago...and we all know how that turned out (Finley was a disappointment before he got hurt). I think Jones can definitely be pretty dynamite this year, but I am seeing him go in the first round in many mock drafts and has been one of the top 5 most expensive WRs in several auctions I have done, which I think is major overreaching. He basically has to produce how most are viewing his ceiling to justify that price, and call me crazy, but that is an awful lot of fantasy hype to live up to, especially for a guy who has never done it before (which we usually like to see out of WRs first, as opposed to RBs).

RE: FinleyThrough 4 games, the guy was on pace for 84/1204/4. While the TD's were not up there, he was 1 behind pace where he would have been a monster. Essentially, he was on pace to be TE2 (as Gates was blowing up).

 

[Raider Nation]

This guy is uncoverable. He has 2 TDs and it should be 3. Ryan missed him WIDE OPEN in the end zone on the last drive.

 

[joffer]

any concerns that Harry Douglas seemed to replace Julio quite a bit on Monday night? I heard a murmur about a finger injury, but haven't seen anything since then. was it just because of the drops?

 

[packersfan]

any concerns that Harry Douglas seemed to replace Julio quite a bit on Monday night? I heard a murmur about a finger injury, but haven't seen anything since then. was it just because of the drops?

I'm not concerned but I was wondering why he was off the field so much late in the game. He was in on the final drive obviously with the third-down catch but I'm surprised no one in the Atlanta media has even asked why he missed so many snaps on the two previous series.

 

[Funkley]

Nope.

 

[sammy8887]

any concerns that Harry Douglas seemed to replace Julio quite a bit on Monday night? I heard a murmur about a finger injury, but haven't seen anything since then. was it just because of the drops?

I'm not concerned but I was wondering why he was off the field so much late in the game. He was in on the final drive obviously with the third-down catch but I'm surprised no one in the Atlanta media has even asked why he missed so many snaps on the two previous series.

Yeah, that third down play he looked like an apparent decoy as the play rolled to White's side and he got the TD catch. Something was going on Monday night with his lack of snaps...

 

[meyerj31]

It did look like Julio hurt his hand/finger that game. He went down low to scoop a pass off the ground on a comeback/backshoulder type throw and it looked like he hit his hand oddly. I haven't heard anything about it though.

 

[UKColt]

Well he managed to lose me my matchup.

I don't have him on my team, but whilst he was off the field White got about 50 yards and a TD, which beat me by 2pts

 

[12punch]

julio - 49 snaps

roddy - 61

 

[Soulfly3]

If it helps anyone -

On his dropped TD pass, I noticed when he got up, he started rubbing his elbow. Could be nothing, or could have hit a nerve - Ive done this before and it basically numbs your hand for a while.

Kept him in to decoy, but didnt want to risk throwing his way, possibly.

Still came up huge when needed, and will be a beast going forward as everyone expected

 

[packersfan]

If it helps anyone - On his dropped TD pass, I noticed when he got up, he started rubbing his elbow. Could be nothing, or could have hit a nerve - Ive done this before and it basically numbs your hand for a while.

Oldest trick in the book - when you screw up on something that easy make it look like you got hurt and that's why you dropped the TD pass right in your hands. Rub some dirt on it Julio and play like a man.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Looks like the hype died pretty fast. Nice game Julio.... roddy owners are laughing

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Looks like the hype died pretty fast. Nice game Julio.... roddy owners are laughing

Nice addition to the discussion FWIW, looks like this situation is going to play out most of the year with one or the other blowing up but rarely, if ever, both in the same game. Jones one week, White the next. Ok for Ryan owners, not so good for consistent output for owners of Julio or Roddy.

 

[unckeyherb]

Looks like the hype died pretty fast. Nice game Julio.... roddy owners are laughing

 

[silentcoach]

Looks like the hype died pretty fast. Nice game Julio.... roddy owners are laughing

I hope people in my league thing like this--makes it easier to buy low .

 

[SameSongNDance]

Looks like the hype died pretty fast. Nice game Julio.... roddy owners are laughing

Nice addition to the discussion FWIW, looks like this situation is going to play out most of the year with one or the other blowing up but rarely, if ever, both in the same game. Jones one week, White the next. Ok for Ryan owners, not so good for consistent output for owners of Julio or Roddy.

You base this off of what? As long as Ryan has a good game, I don't see how both Julio and Roddy can't get theirs.

 

[12punch]

he based it off last week.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Looks like the hype died pretty fast. Nice game Julio.... roddy owners are laughing

Nice addition to the discussion FWIW, looks like this situation is going to play out most of the year with one or the other blowing up but rarely, if ever, both in the same game. Jones one week, White the next. Ok for Ryan owners, not so good for consistent output for owners of Julio or Roddy.

You base this off of what? As long as Ryan has a good game, I don't see how both Julio and Roddy can't get theirs.

The first 2 weeks, small sample sure, but you think they're both likely to go off in the same week based on what? We're both guessing here but at least the first 2 games is some evidence to support my guess. I didn't actually say they wouldn't go off in the same week either, I said rarely which looks like a safe assumption to me right now. Hope i'm wrong as I own Ryan and Julio in my main.

 

[12punch]

this board is lol smothered in rofl sauce.

 

[zandbak]

this board is lol smothered in rofl sauce.

Its amazing. Every time I see a terrible post on a thread I look over and sure enough its '12punch' who authored it. Anyone know if there is a way to ignore/block users?

 

[NCPanthersFan]

Well he managed to lose me my matchup.I don't have him on my team, but whilst he was off the field White got about 50 yards and a TD, which beat me by 2pts

Roddy is going to produce no matter what. Last year his numbers were better when Julio was in the game. There is plenty of room for them both to go off each week.

 

[UKColt]

Jones was limited in practice yesterday because of a thigh injury.

Something to keep an eye on, as he had muscle injuries last season.

 

[Raider Nation]

This guy either has a huge game or he's invisible.

 

[Routilla]

Just how bad is this hand laceration? I wish he would just sit out until he is 100%.

 

[Rovers]

He tweeted he was fine for this week... which oesn't mean anything as far as I am concerned. The OC made a big deal of his hand injury re: his poor showing last week. Wish I had seen that game to see if it really was an issue with his hand or not.

It's hard to bench him... if I do, he goes off, if I don't, he'll put up another stinker.

 

[joffer]

Two bad games at home

Two good games on the road

 

[SameSongNDance]

He tweeted he was fine for this week... which oesn't mean anything as far as I am concerned. The OC made a big deal of his hand injury re: his poor showing last week. Wish I had seen that game to see if it really was an issue with his hand or not. It's hard to bench him... if I do, he goes off, if I don't, he'll put up another stinker.

I remember him dropping an easy TD, so I think he was effected. Gamble played well though and CAR constantly rolled coverage towards him. I think it was a combination of several factors.

 

[just_want_2_win]

The rumors of Roddy White's demise were premature. He's still pretty studly. So unlike Calvin Johnson and AJ Green, Julio has to share the field with another stud WR. On the one hand that should help Julio because teams have to respect White too. On the other hand, it means that Ryan has another prime target at WR. Depending on game plan or simply game flow Ryan could end up looking at White more in certain games. And don't forget that Gonzo is getting a lot of play, too. I think Julio will be boom or bust this year. (I'm a JJ owner so I've been following him closely since before the FF draft this year.)

 

[NCPanthersFan]

He tweeted he was fine for this week... which oesn't mean anything as far as I am concerned. The OC made a big deal of his hand injury re: his poor showing last week. Wish I had seen that game to see if it really was an issue with his hand or not. It's hard to bench him... if I do, he goes off, if I don't, he'll put up another stinker.

There was no doubt in my mind the hand was a problem last week. Running in and out of the huddle you can see that he was favoring it. Game had a couple of camera zooms where you can see he was just holding it to the side more in between plays.

 

[Rovers]

He tweeted he was fine for this week... which oesn't mean anything as far as I am concerned. The OC made a big deal of his hand injury re: his poor showing last week. Wish I had seen that game to see if it really was an issue with his hand or not. It's hard to bench him... if I do, he goes off, if I don't, he'll put up another stinker.

I remember him dropping an easy TD, so I think he was effected. Gamble played well though and CAR constantly rolled coverage towards him. I think it was a combination of several factors.

That would make sense... do teams now roll the coverage towards White, given his recent performances? I could see this tandem taking turns putting up big games depending on which WR the defense is most worried about. Then, Ryan has Gonzo too.

 

[SameSongNDance]

He tweeted he was fine for this week... which oesn't mean anything as far as I am concerned. The OC made a big deal of his hand injury re: his poor showing last week. Wish I had seen that game to see if it really was an issue with his hand or not.

It's hard to bench him... if I do, he goes off, if I don't, he'll put up another stinker.

I remember him dropping an easy TD, so I think he was effected. Gamble played well though and CAR constantly rolled coverage towards him. I think it was a combination of several factors.

That would make sense... do teams now roll the coverage towards White, given his recent performances? I could see this tandem taking turns putting up big games depending on which WR the defense is most worried about. Then, Ryan has Gonzo too.

It's an absolute nightmare for defenses as they'll simply have to pick their poison.

Julio Jones credited the Panthers' defensive game plan for his quiet Week 4 performance, downplaying the role of his injured hand.

"They tried to double me and Tony (Gonzalez) throughout the whole game," Jones said. "Roddy (White) and Harry (Douglas) had the one-on-one matchups and you saw Roddy made numerous big plays, basically winning us the game. Matt (Ryan) was finding those one-on-one matchups." This was our take as well. The Falcons took what the Panthers were giving. We suspect Jones may have had a lesser role on screens and slants due to the hand injury. That shouldn't be the case this week with Jones practicing fully Wednesday and Thursday while insisting that his hand is fine. Rotoworld ranks Jones No. 2 among fantasy receivers in a dream matchup versus the Redskins.

 

[unckeyherb]

He's going against one of the worst pass defenses in league this week. Expect 120/2 and everyone will step back from the ledge.

 

[joffer]

He didn't drop a TD last week, it was knocked down

 

[SameSongNDance]

He didn't drop a TD last week, it was knocked down

Right, it was Roddy who dropped the pass. My mistake.

 

[Raider Nation]

Good thing nobody is counting on him this week or anything.

I knew this was coming as soon as ATL clinched the division early. They are sleepwalking.

 

[Raider Nation]

Better!