Justin Blackmon (1 Viewer)

[cmv5]

I am sorry if I missed any thread about this already, didn't see one.

There seems to be a serious lack of excitement about this guy. Now, if Tebow goes here, all bets are off but since Henne was only the guy for part of the season, his stats just look like a good rookie season.

If you include his monster 236 yard game, he was on pace with Henne for 1405 yards and 9 touchdowns. It seems like people are getting excited that Crabtree is finally delivering on some promise when there is a younger, better Crabtree that is a reasonable buy low.

 

[Chazzhawk]

The problem is it looks like there is a better than 50 percent chance that Tebow will be in Jacksonville next year. Which makes next year an even better year to buy low.

 

[Slapdash]

I'm pretty excited about him, I picked him up as a FA the day he blew put in a keep 4 league. I don't expect Jax to downgrade at QB, it would be hard to.

Even if Tebow goes there, people seem to forget that Thomas put up respectable numbers with him.

 

[Shutout]

I believe Blackmon can easily follow the "slow to come around but eventually does in a big way" route that Dez and Crabtree have.

Its easy to see the ability and, coming out of that conference, just seems to take these kids a while to learn to play against press coverage which is almost non-existant in their conference. Of course, it has to be done without Gabbard or a similar talent at QB. But with a capable QB, I think he gets there.

 

[Wadsworth]

I'm pretty excited about him, I picked him up as a FA the day he blew put in a keep 4 league. I don't expect Jax to downgrade at QB, it would be hard to.

Even if Tebow goes there, people seem to forget that Thomas put up respectable numbers with him.

If Thomas put up respectable numbers with Tebow either we disagree on what is respectable or you are right and I have forgotten.

 

[cstu]

On a horrible Jags team he still led all rookie in catches and yards.

He started slow but since week 8 he was the #10 WR.

 

[matttyl]

So put him up directly against the aforementioned Crabtree. Which would you rather have in redraft next year? What about dynasty?

 

[lynx4ben]

Crabtree in both. Although I think I slightly prefer Blackmon from a talent perspective.

 

[Shutout]

Crabtree in both. I think he will make an impact similar to what Nicks did a few years ago next season.

 

[Our Gang]

The problem is you can't buy him at the right price in dynasty. The current owner spent a top pick to get him and now that he flashed a little you would have to spend more than the risk. Not a bad redraft player that will more thatn likely produce a round or two better than his adp with decent qb play.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If Tebow goes to JAX, he's not going to run the DEN 2011 offense. Tebow is not a good NFL QB, but Fox was trying real hard to limit his opportunities. If Jax does a spread offense more similar to what he did at Florida, there will be enough stats for at least one WR. The Khans are crazy enough to bring Tebow in, but if they do, they will find a coach who likes the idea, not one who was forced in like Fox was. Tebow limits Blackmon's upside, but no more than Gabbert or Henne would. Barring a miracle turnaround (pun intended), Jax's 2014 QB is a rookie or 2014 FA.

 

[cmv5]

So put him up directly against the aforementioned Crabtree. Which would you rather have in redraft next year? What about dynasty?

Great question. In redraft at this point, it is Crabtree but not by that much. I personally would probably take the value of where you can draft Blackmon in redraft versus Crabtree. In dynasty, as long as Jacksonville doesn't really give Tebow a try, I say Blackmon. I am a big fan in upside and he is just getting started and younger. With that being said, it's still a close one. For one, Crabtree is only 25 and even if Henne ends up being the starter, I am not comfortable saying he is the answer. Kaepernick looks like he is the real deal and with Harbaugh as coach, should be in a stable offense for years to come.

 

[Bayhawks]

I'm pretty excited about him, I picked him up as a FA the day he blew put in a keep 4 league. I don't expect Jax to downgrade at QB, it would be hard to.

Even if Tebow goes there, people seem to forget that Thomas put up respectable numbers with him.

If Thomas put up respectable numbers with Tebow either we disagree on what is respectable or you are right and I have forgotten.

You have forgotten, it seems, that Thomas was recovering from a major achilles injury last year. He didn't play a single game until week 7, and likely wasn't 100% for most of 2011. That being said, if you look at his last "half" of 2011 (he was active weeks 7-17, so last "half" was weeks 12-17), he averaged 8 targets, 4 catches (50% catch rate), 75 yards, and .67 TDs per game. Over a full season, that extrapolates to 128 targets, 64 catches, 1200 yards, and 11 TDs. I'd say those were respectable numbers.

 

[nb009]

I'll probably buy low in next season's redraft, but I'm not sure what price I'll be willing to pay. Anyone who saw Thomas/Decker a season ago could tell their good games were very flukey, and even with those good games, they were a risk to start week-in and week-out.

If anything, I hope the Tebow news scares off people from Blackmon, only to have Tebow not even start (I doubt that will happen in JAX though).

 

[5-ish Finkle]

I'm pretty excited about him, I picked him up as a FA the day he blew put in a keep 4 league. I don't expect Jax to downgrade at QB, it would be hard to.

Even if Tebow goes there, people seem to forget that Thomas put up respectable numbers with him.

If Thomas put up respectable numbers with Tebow either we disagree on what is respectable or you are right and I have forgotten.

The last month+ of the '11 season(with playoffs) Thomas was averaging over 20 PPG in PPR leagues with Tebow at QB, IIRC. I'm guessing this is what is being talked about. Thomas was the beneficiary of a higher volume of targets as Teebs developed vapor lock. I'm quite certain a lot of those targets were of the fugly variety....but the fact remains he was scoring as a WR1 for an extended period of time with Tebow as the quarterback.If Blackmon were to become the beneficiary of a higher volume of targets per game, no matter who the QB is, his performance/value should spike. Should doesn't mean will, of course. As mentioned, "Tebow in Jacksonville(or anywhere)" does not mean he automatically becomes "Tebow from Denver." If they acquire him and let him run some kind of spread option/pistol-based offense, then I don't know that it'd totally deep six Blackmon's production. Could wind up in a lot of single coverage. If they attempt to make him run Mularkey's offense as it is presently constructed then yeah, pretty much all Jags offensive players take a hit.

 

[jonboltz]

I'm pretty excited about him, I picked him up as a FA the day he blew put in a keep 4 league. I don't expect Jax to downgrade at QB, it would be hard to.

Even if Tebow goes there, people seem to forget that Thomas put up respectable numbers with him.

If Thomas put up respectable numbers with Tebow either we disagree on what is respectable or you are right and I have forgotten.

You have forgotten, it seems, that Thomas was recovering from a major achilles injury last year. He didn't play a single game until week 7, and likely wasn't 100% for most of 2011. That being said, if you look at his last "half" of 2011 (he was active weeks 7-17, so last "half" was weeks 12-17), he averaged 8 targets, 4 catches (50% catch rate), 75 yards, and .67 TDs per game. Over a full season, that extrapolates to 128 targets, 64 catches, 1200 yards, and 11 TDs. I'd say those were respectable numbers.

Thomas last seven games with Tebow:35 rec

745 yards

5 TDs

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Over the first 9 games

WR Justin Blackmon had:

- 27 receptions

- 257 receiving yards

- 1 touchdown

Over the final 7 games

WR Justin Blackmon had:

- 38 receptions

- 615 receiving yards

- 4 touchdowns

Over the final 7 games he had one bad game at Buffalo but otherwise was very solid putting up #1 WR numbers during the final portion of the 2012 season.

The final 7 games for Blackmon:

WK

11. @Hou REC 7 YDS 236 TD 1

12. Ten REC 6 YDS 62 TD 1

13. @Buf REC 1 YDS 9 -

14. NYJ REC 7 YDS 57 -

15. @Mia REC 6 YDS 93 -

16. NE REC 7 YDS 79 TD 1

17. @Ten REC 6 YDS 79 TD 1

I traded for him last summer and it looked bad early on but he certainly proved he has talent if he's got a QB who can get the ball to him.

Tebow was a marketing gimmic for the Jets. They never planned to start him, it was a ticket ploy.

Even if he starts for the Jags he won't be starting long if he does't win, IOWs I think the Jags will have a QB waiting in the wings to take over once they hook Tebow fans with the ticket ploy that the Jest pulled.

 

[Wadsworth]

I'm pretty excited about him, I picked him up as a FA the day he blew put in a keep 4 league. I don't expect Jax to downgrade at QB, it would be hard to.

Even if Tebow goes there, people seem to forget that Thomas put up respectable numbers with him.

If Thomas put up respectable numbers with Tebow either we disagree on what is respectable or you are right and I have forgotten.

You have forgotten, it seems, that Thomas was recovering from a major achilles injury last year. He didn't play a single game until week 7, and likely wasn't 100% for most of 2011. That being said, if you look at his last "half" of 2011 (he was active weeks 7-17, so last "half" was weeks 12-17), he averaged 8 targets, 4 catches (50% catch rate), 75 yards, and .67 TDs per game. Over a full season, that extrapolates to 128 targets, 64 catches, 1200 yards, and 11 TDs. I'd say those were respectable numbers.

Thomas last seven games with Tebow:35 rec

745 yards

5 TDs

Okay, you are including the playoffs. I get it now.

 

[Crippler]

I really dont think anyone should be worried about Tebow. He will come in there and they will see he is not an NFL QB early. But he will be signed to get some season tickets as fans of his come in droves

I still think Gabbert stands a chance to be the QB there and I think he can do what Henne did. He is still 23. I dont think Henne is the starter at all and it will be Gabbert or someone completely new not named Tebow.

I look for Blackmon to do okay next year but breakout like Dez and Crabtree in year 3. I would be buying him if he is reasonable value. I got Crabtree in a league at start of the year for Boldin and a 2nd rounder this year and now his value has skyrocketed and key part for my team

 

[kegger]

If Gabbert was to be the QB going forward forget about it.

But I'd highly doubt he will be, and anything is an upgrade.

 

[schlesinj]

Most rookie WR take time to figure things out, I actually think he figured things out quickly. Even with the slow start he ended up 64 catches 865 Yds 5 TD.

I know I am cherry picking, but AJ Green rookie season in 2011 was 65 catches 1057 yds 7 TD.

 

[Slapdash]

Most rookie WR take time to figure things out, I actually think he figured things out quickly. Even with the slow start he ended up 64 catches 865 Yds 5 TD. I know I am cherry picking, but AJ Green rookie season in 2011 was 65 catches 1057 yds 7 TD.

Good posting. I didn't realize how favorably his rookie campaign actually was until diving into some of the figures. Some other recent rookie seasons from highly drafted rookies: Calvin Johnson: 48/756/4Julio Jones: 54/959/8Demaryius Thomas: 22/283/2 (10 games) Micheal Crabtree: 48/625/2Dez Bryant: 45/561/6DHB: 9/124/1 (11 games)I doubt his hype approaches what AJ and JJ had going into year two, but his stats aren't too far behind. His catches stack up impressively.

 

[jonboltz]

I doubt his hype approaches what AJ and JJ had going into year two, but his stats aren't too far behind. His catches stack up impressively.

My only minor concern is how he had such a large chunk of his yards all in one game. If he was less of a pedigree, that'd be a bigger concern. It should be interesting to see where he goes in a dynasty start-up.

 

[Phlash]

He's a guy I'll be targeting hard next year. The only downside is that Cecil Shorts III emerged bigtime this season, and the logic will be that Blackmon won't get the opportunities because of the split load at the WR position. I think this is a non-issue, as the coaching staff clearly made it a point to forcefeed Blackmon the ball. That speaks to his level of talent.

He had 133 targets last year, compared to 106 for CS3. I can't see why the targets wouldn't continue to favor Blackmon going into next season, along with an expected improvement in both QB play and his own play. He should be a pretty great return on investment guy next season.

 

[JAA]

I dont think you can buy Blackmon in dynasty. More than likely he was the 1.02. You would need to give up at least that. COnsidering how Blackmon looked at the end of the season, it would cost you 2 1sts. Dont know why at this point, in Jax, someone would commit to that price.

I have Blackmon in one dynasty and I see him as a 4 yr commit. If someone offered me the 1.02 and another 1st, I would have to consider it.

 

[BoomGoesTheDynamite]

I got him at 1.05 last year after RG3, Luck, Richardson, and Martin. Can't believe he went much higher than that in most leagues.

 

[Spin]

Most rookie WR take time to figure things out, I actually think he figured things out quickly. Even with the slow start he ended up 64 catches 865 Yds 5 TD.

I know I am cherry picking, but AJ Green rookie season in 2011 was 65 catches 1057 yds 7 TD.

Good posting. I didn't realize how favorably his rookie campaign actually was until diving into some of the figures. Some other recent rookie seasons from highly drafted rookies:

Calvin Johnson: 48/756/4

Julio Jones: 54/959/8

Demaryius Thomas: 22/283/2 (10 games)

Micheal Crabtree: 48/625/2 (11 games)

Dez Bryant: 45/561/6

DHB: 9/124/1 (11 games)

I doubt his hype approaches what AJ and JJ had going into year two, but his stats aren't too far behind. His catches stack up impressively.

Crabs missed half his rookie year with holdout.

 

[JAA]

I got him at 1.05 last year after RG3, Luck, Richardson, and Martin. Can't believe he went much higher than that in most leagues.

PPR WCOFF Dynasty 1.02 is ADP

 

[squistion]

I got him at 1.05 last year after RG3, Luck, Richardson, and Martin. Can't believe he went much higher than that in most leagues.

PPR WCOFF Dynasty 1.02 is ADP

I thought the WCOFF was out of business and IIRC was redraft leagues when it existed not dynasty leagues. In any event, in the 5 leagues I am in, all of which have posters known to this board he went, 1.03, 1.04, 1.04, 1.05, 1.05.

 

[Spin]

Blackmon went 1.7 in my dynasty. After Rich/Luck/Martin/RG3/Wilson/Floyd.

 

[nb009]

It is widely believed that Jaguars owner Shahid Khan loves him some Tim Tebow.It should not be believed by anyone that new G.M. Dave Caldwell shares that view.“I can’t imagine a scenario where he’d be a Jacksonville Jaguar,” Caldwell said of Tebow at an introductory press conference, via multiple reports.If Khan truly wanted Tebow, Khan could have imposed that condition on anyone hired as G.M. and head coach. Of course, Khan in turn may have had an even harder time hiring a G.M. and a coach than Jets owner Woody Johnson is having hiring a G.M. with Rex Ryan in place as the head coach.

Definitely targeting this guy next year as my WR 3 with WR 1 upside.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Shorts and Blackmon both dodge a substantial downgrade IMO.