Keeper advice & draft strategy needed IDP PPR 10 team NFL Fantasy League scoring (1 Viewer)

[NinerDownUnder]

10 team IDP PPR League - Start QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, K, 4DL, 3LB, 4DB
Drafting at #9 - FIXED draft order - 29 rounds

Need to keep 4 Offense, 4 Defense players

My team:

QB: Roethlisberger, Rivers
RB: Ayaji, Woodhead, Charles, Peterson, Powell, Jeremy Hill, Rawls
WR: Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown, Britt, Ginn, Lockett, Diggs, Tyrell Williams
TE: Ertz

DL: Geno Atkins, Cameron Wake, Kyle Williams, DeForest Buckner
LB: Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, Jerrell Freeman, Kiko Alonso, Eric Kendricks
DB: Eric Weddle, Corey Graham, Robert Alford, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

My leans/thoughts

Offense

Definitely going to keep Antonio Brown and Tyreek Hill, and given that my RB corps are so deplorable the only decent option at the moment is Ayaji so am looking to keep him. After that it's a total crapshoot. With the possible exception of Stefon Diggs, none of my remaining WR's are probably worthy enough of the fourth slot over a RB. Add to that the fact I will be picking at #9 and most of the other RB's will probably be gone by then it makes sense to make the 4th keeper a RB. Even that is murky. Danny Woodhead is a proven pass catching back however after the release of the preseason depth charts he sits behind Terrence West. Jamaal Charles/Adrian Peterson have the uncertainty of not knowing how they will come back after injuries last year. Jeremy Hill was solid but now Giovani Bernard and rookie Joe Mixon make a crowded backfield. Thomas Rawls is a non factor and Bialil Powell is in an atrocious offensive situation at the Jets and has Matt Forte to worry about as well. As it stands right now I am leaning Powell but with no confidence.

Defense

This is a lot more clear cut. Will definitely keep Wagner, David and Clinton-Dix but then the option is whether to take a DL (Buckner?), a 2nd DB (Weddle?) or a 3rd LB (Kendricks?).

Draft Strategy

I figure I have to go RB in the first round at least and see who I manage to have in play (maybe Fournette, McCaffrey if they drop that far), alternatively I could go early on a better tier QB since most don't go that early. After that I just have to play it by ear.

Happy to hear any advice.

 

[travdogg]

I'd keep Diggs and his 100 catch upside for sure, I think he's better than Hill personally. So, Ajayi, Brown, Diggs and Hill would be my offensive keeps. Your starting WRs are set, and you can focus elsewhere early.

On defense, why are David and Clinton-Dix locks? David has been surpassed by Alexander as the Bucs LB to own, and likewise Clinton-Dix(though a solid player) takes a backseat to Burnett. My 4 defensive players would be Wagner, Kendricks, Alonzo and Weddle. I can see a case for David over Alonzo(durability) but when healthy, Alonzo is a superior producer. If you are 100% locked into Wagner, David and Clinton-Dix, then Kendricks should be your 4th. I think he's a top-15 overall defensive player.

ETA: As for draft strategy, I think RB is a priority although I'd be tempted by TE if a great one was available. 

 

[Borden]

O: AB, Hill, Ajayi, Woodhead 

D: Wagner, David, Dix, Weddle or a DL 

I would take Woodhead. He has sneaky good production. Don't worry about where they put him on a depth chart, it seems like his entire career he's been behind someone else on the depth chart. Woodhead gives you a nice RB2 safety net so you can swing for home runs at RB during the draft. You'll be able to find a WR3 during the draft (or off the WW) to fill that spot. 

It's been awhile since I've played IDP but for me finding high production DL was always an issue. If you have anyone better than what you feel will be available in the draft or WW during the season, then I'd take that DL. If you don't have any of those types of DL, I'd keep Weddle.

For a draft plan, go RB often and early. Target Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette. On defense, I want DEs on a team with a good offense (forces teams to pass more and creates opportunities for sacks). I want LBs and S on really bad teams. They are more likely to see more running plays. My target would Jamal Adams for the Jets. They are terrible, he's a beast and they lost their leading tackler (Harris).

 

[Gally]

Offense:

• As you stated Hill, Brown & Ajayi are easy locks and not thought has to go in there.   I can understand the idea of forcing a RB and Woodhead seems like a decent bet but I think he will be available in your draft (or better options).  I would take Diggs as your final offensive keeper because I think he will be a solid PPR play this year.  I would have a slight thought to Tyrell Williams as I think he has the biggest upside of your options but at this point I would rather go with the higher floor of Diggs.  
  

Defense:

• Do not keep any DB's.  They are always easy to find on waivers as there are always the flavor of the month that can give you just as much as the guys you have.  The only DB I would even think about keeping would be Landon Collins.  Otherwise don't keep any.  A wasted keeper as they are easy to find.
  
• Based on the way you listed your starting requirements (4DL) I assume you do not have to play any DT.  That makes Atkins a little less valuable.
  
• You didn't specify your scoring system (big play, balanced, or tackle heavy).  That has some bearing on how high to rank Wake.
  
• I agree with Travdogg  that Alexander has taken over for David and really hurts his status.  He wouldn't be an automatic for me.
  
• Wagner & Kendricks are my only auto keeps here. 
  
• The final two spots come down to David (not a LB1 anymore but still serviceable as a LB2/3), Wake (needing to start 4DL makes this a really scarce position and Wake should be good for 10-ish sacks), Buckner (young stud that should be on the field a lot), Atkins (a high floor DT but depending on scoring & roster lineups may not be worth keeping), and Alonzo (solid LB2/3 with high floor)
  
• I would go with Buckner (4 DL starting spot and his upside is really good) and Cameron Wake (mainly because you have to start 4 DL and only 3 LB; the position scarcity of DL will be really difficult to field quality DL's.  Getting the 10+ sack potential is worth it even with his age). 
  

 

[NinerDownUnder]

Thank you all very much for your very detailed analysis, it is much appreciated.

I neglected to mention the defensive scoring system as Gally highlighted. It's 1pt/tackle, 0.5/tackle assist, 2pts for sack,forced fumble, interception, fumble recovery, 1pt for pass defensed. There are also bonus points for 3+ sacks, 10+ tackles and 3+ passes defensed per game.

After looking at your replies, I'm starting to warm to the idea of Stefon Diggs over Woodhead/Powell. Give the requirements of having to start 3 WR it makes sense to have a solid corps to fill the starting slots, and then worry about the remaining RB slot at pick 9. Woodhead might even fall to me then if there isn't a better option available. Assuming I go RB in the first round I doubt Diggs will be there at Pick 19. My only minor concern with Diggs is the emergence of Adam Thelien last season, but from what I hear Diggs has been doing well in training camp.

Defensively, again good points about David and the requirements of having to take 4 DL's, however now that I have revealed the scoring system I wonder if it would be possible to reassess whether having a top DL is worth more than a Tier 2 DB or LB.

 

[travdogg]

Thank you all very much for your very detailed analysis, it is much appreciated.

I neglected to mention the defensive scoring system as Gally highlighted. It's 1pt/tackle, 0.5/tackle assist, 2pts for sack,forced fumble, interception, fumble recovery, 1pt for pass defensed. There are also bonus points for 3+ sacks, 10+ tackles and 3+ passes defensed per game.

After looking at your replies, I'm starting to warm to the idea of Stefon Diggs over Woodhead/Powell. Give the requirements of having to start 3 WR it makes sense to have a solid corps to fill the starting slots, and then worry about the remaining RB slot at pick 9. Woodhead might even fall to me then if there isn't a better option available. Assuming I go RB in the first round I doubt Diggs will be there at Pick 19. My only minor concern with Diggs is the emergence of Adam Thelien last season, but from what I hear Diggs has been doing well in training camp.

Defensively, again good points about David and the requirements of having to take 4 DL's, however now that I have revealed the scoring system I wonder if it would be possible to reassess whether having a top DL is worth more than a Tier 2 DB or LB.

I feel like Thielen is very overrated. He got 25% of his production in one game, a game almost nobody used him in as he was coming off a goose egg, and did almost nothing until Diggs got hurt. He only had 2 good games, one was a fluke, and the other Diggs didn't play in. The way I see it, Diggs is a WR2, Thielen is a WR4, and an uninspiring WR4 at that.

 

[Gally]

Thank you all very much for your very detailed analysis, it is much appreciated.

I neglected to mention the defensive scoring system as Gally highlighted. It's 1pt/tackle, 0.5/tackle assist, 2pts for sack,forced fumble, interception, fumble recovery, 1pt for pass defensed. There are also bonus points for 3+ sacks, 10+ tackles and 3+ passes defensed per game.

After looking at your replies, I'm starting to warm to the idea of Stefon Diggs over Woodhead/Powell. Give the requirements of having to start 3 WR it makes sense to have a solid corps to fill the starting slots, and then worry about the remaining RB slot at pick 9. Woodhead might even fall to me then if there isn't a better option available. Assuming I go RB in the first round I doubt Diggs will be there at Pick 19. My only minor concern with Diggs is the emergence of Adam Thelien last season, but from what I hear Diggs has been doing well in training camp.

Defensively, again good points about David and the requirements of having to take 4 DL's, however now that I have revealed the scoring system I wonder if it would be possible to reassess whether having a top DL is worth more than a Tier 2 DB or LB.

This equates to what most consider as a tackle heavy scoring league.  So you really want to target LB's that never come off the field because they are the most valuable asset to own.  However, that being said, your roster requirements still put a huge strain on the DL position since you have to start more of those than any other position.  I would target high tackle DL such as Melvin Ingram (just moved to DL), Clowney (if he has DL designation - some leagues do some don't), Danielle Hunter (may still be off some radars since he just got the starting gig) and Brandon Graham (underrated but has good tackle numbers).  If guys like that are available then I would lean towards keeping Buckner (I think he will take a big step this year) and letting Wake go.  Then keep who you think will be better between David, Alonso, and Freeman.  I might actually lean towards Freeman.  Bears will be decent and he has little competition for tackles.