Keeper advice (1 Viewer)

[soxfan111111]

12 team league. Half ppr. I have the 12th pick in a non-snake, 17 round draft. We get three keepers.

I've got to pick three out of these five.

The only one I'm dead certain on is Kyren Williams, who will only cost me the 17th round pick.

Then I'm down to needing to pick two of these possible four.

Ceedee Lamb (1st).

Brandon Aiyuk (4th).

Sam LaPorta (9th).

CJ Stroud (16th).

I always hate having to give up my first round pick, especially when I'm picking 12th and won't have a pick until the 24th pick if I give up the first, but I think Ceedee is probably too much of a force to give up, and I won't get anything close to him at pick 12,

Then it's down to one of those last three, and my gut tells me I should be going LaPorta, but some questions nag at me. Should I give up my fourth rounder and keep the other top 15 WR, knowing that I won't have that level of quality available to me at pick 24? Is Stroud so equipped with weapons in his second year that he's too good a value to pass up when he'll only cost me my 16th rounder? Is TE deep enough that LaPorta won't be that far ahead of a bunch of TE's I could probably get in the middle rounds of the draft?

Any advice on this would be welcome.

 

[jwsbowler]

I would keep Williams. As to Lamb, I have him 3rd overall in my rankings, so getting him at #12 is a no brainer. If the league starts TEs, I am keeping LaPorta for a 9th rounder.

I can find other wide receivers equivalent to Aiyuk.

 

[Cjw_55106]

Williams, Lamb and LaPorta

Side question: What is the thought process behind a non-snake draft?

 

[soxfan111111]

Williams, Lamb and LaPorta

Side question: What is the thought process behind a non-snake draft?

I'm not the commissioner so it wouldn't be my choice. I suppose it promotes a little more parity from year to year, since success one year results in more draft punishment the next, and vice versa.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

what that guy said

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

Agreeing with consensus.

 

[Gally]

Williams, Lamb and LaPorta

Side question: What is the thought process behind a non-snake draft?

I'm not the commissioner so it wouldn't be my choice. I suppose it promotes a little more parity from year to year, since success one year results in more draft punishment the next, and vice versa.

But you don't get to carry over your team (3 guys is not enough) so what does success last year have to do with this year? I have never understood redraft leagues that do this. It is such a disadvantage. The only way an NFL style draft works is if you can keep the equivalent of a starting lineup (or more) from year to year. Otherwise you are just screwing the guy that got lucky to win the year before. I likely woulnd't stay in this league because of that.

ETA: It also sets up to promote tanking because if you have no shot this year there is a tremendous opportunity to positively impact next year....more so than a typical dynasty format where you still have your core team that theoretically isn't that great and needs a ton of help. In this format you are essentially starting over but getting the first pick every round. It would make me want to just punt every other year to really put myself at a huge advantage the other every other year.

 

[Gally]

Here are my keeper thoughts:

• Lamb: he is a must keep. You will not get his caliber of player at 1.12 especially with 36 players being kept. That makes that pick more like 4.12
• Kyren: No brainer as a 17th round player
• Stroud: If a SF or 2 QB he is a must keep but I am assuming 1 QB which puts him in question. He is in real consideration for me.
• LaPorta: This is the debate with Stroud for me. It's close and I am not sure which way I lean. TE & QB can be cobbled together to be serviceable so it will likely depend on your leaguemates and how they draft. Do QB's fly off the board early or do they go late. Same with TE's.
• Aiyuk: I don't like his contract situation so it gives me pause. If I knew better he would jump into consideration and likely be the choice for #3. If asked today I would stay out of that mess. For this few keepers I like to have as little in question as possible. Keeping a disgruntled guy with questions can really mess you up. I guess you can say Lamb is in a similar situation but he doesn't seem as disgruntled so the situation doesn't seem like an issue to me. That could change as well.

NOTE: The fact you are picking last every round probably leads me to go with Stroud as it seems you will be the end of QB runs and to get a top 5-8 guy locked in and not have to worry about that position is a big benefit to my draft strategy. LaPorta may be close but I think I can find TE's easier. This could swap if there are 8 TE's kept and 2 QB's where the scarcity comes into play but I would guess that isn't the case.

 

[BassNBrew]

Here are my keeper thoughts:

• Lamb: he is a must keep. You will not get his caliber of player at 1.12 especially with 36 players being kept. That makes that pick more like 4.12
• Kyren: No brainer as a 17th round player
• Stroud: If a SF or 2 QB he is a must keep but I am assuming 1 QB which puts him in question. He is in real consideration for me.
• LaPorta: This is the debate with Stroud for me. It's close and I am not sure which way I lean. TE & QB can be cobbled together to be serviceable so it will likely depend on your leaguemates and how they draft. Do QB's fly off the board early or do they go late. Same with TE's.
• Aiyuk: I don't like his contract situation so it gives me pause. If I knew better he would jump into consideration and likely be the choice for #3. If asked today I would stay out of that mess. For this few keepers I like to have as little in question as possible. Keeping a disgruntled guy with questions can really mess you up. I guess you can say Lamb is in a similar situation but he doesn't seem as disgruntled so the situation doesn't seem like an issue to me. That could change as well.

NOTE: The fact you are picking last every round probably leads me to go with Stroud as it seems you will be the end of QB runs and to get a top 5-8 guy locked in and not have to worry about that position is a big benefit to my draft strategy. LaPorta may be close but I think I can find TE's easier. This could swap if there are 8 TE's kept and 2 QB's where the scarcity comes into play but I would guess that isn't the case.

LaPorta is going in the 2nd and Stroud in the 6th.

2nd and 19th (3 rd discount) for 6th and 12th (3 rd discount). If someone is offering me their 2nd for my 6th and I only give up swapping a 12th for a 19th I'm taking that all day.