Gawain
Footballguy
I'm in a slightly deeper keeper league where we basically keep starters and then draft rookies and all the guys who were thrown back into the pool. Because of that I try to keep an eye open for guys who will be FAs after the season because they can sometimes luck into a starting role. If I have a choice of two backup guys with comparable talent, I'll always go with the guy who will be a FA after the year. So, I wanted to make a list of guys that I think have a real opportunity after 2013.
QBs:
Chad Henne headlines my list. In a 2QB/Superflex league Henne is a valuable commodity. He may end up starting for Jax this year and get an extension, but if he doesn't, he will have the opportunity to move onto a team where he may be able to start in 2014.
The rest of the guys are pretty unappealing. Cutler is a UFA, but it's likely he will be extended. I'm over the McCown brothers, Hill has been adequate in spot starts in Detroit, but don't see anyone offering him a #1 job.
RBs:
Ben Tate leads the running backs who might get a new opportunity in 2014. I think he's an easy target, both for the possibility of 2013 production and him possibly having a featured role in 2014.
Blount is my second favorite option. While I don't love his play style, he has produced in an NFL offense, seems to be out of favor as staying as a backup in TB and could be a valuable 2 down back.
Chris Ivory is a bit of a different case because he's still technically an RFA, but I think it is highly likely he's back with the Saints for one more year. With Sproles and Thomas aging and Ingram a question mark, Ivory may either have a real opportunity in 2014 on the Saints or get a chance to move to a less crowded backfield.
There are a few higher profile RBs already starting that will be free agents as well. McFadden, MJD, Mendenhall all carry enough value that I wouldn't take their free agent status as a positive. I think it's unlikely that McFadden or Mendenhall would carry as much value in a different situation, while the best case scenario for MJD would be Steven Jackson of 2013, but I have a tough time finding a fit for him.
Other options would include Dwyer and Reece. Dwyer produced at a 4 YPC behind a pretty poor Steelers line, while Reece has looked good in limited duty. Both carry heavy red flags, so both would be late round flyers. If I'm picking between two guys with little potential, I'd rather take the one who may find greener pastures in a year. Redman may fit this as well if/when he signs his tender.
WRs:
I tend to focus more on RBs and QBs when looking at looming FA just because it's awfully rare for a WR to gain value when moving to a new team. Either a WR already carries a hefty pick, or he doesn't improve upon arriving on a new team. That being said, there are a couple guys that I will probably keep an eye on.
James Jones is the first of WR who I am interested in. I think he may go too early for my tastes as people assume he will become a starting GB WR, but he also is only under contract for 2013. The last time he approached FA, I remember targeting him as well and he re-signed in GB. He had flashed potential before 2012, but his ridiculous TD number may leave him overvalued. If he backs up his 2012 with a solid 2013, he may be viewed by another team as a legit #1 WR. Sadly, history has shown that recently these guys like to bust out. (Robinson, Meachum, jury's out of Garcon)
Jeremy Maclin is another guy who I probably have a bit more interest in because of his 2014 status. I think the implementation of Chip Kelly's offense is still a big unknown. If Maclin is deemed a non-essential part, I can easily see him moving on in 2014. I think that Maclin can serve as a #1 WR on a different team or in a different offense and I believe that his stock now is as low as it has been in the past few years.
Eric Decker becomes available after 2013, but I'm wary of adding any value because of that. I think he's likely in the best situation he can find, even with the addition of Welker. Also, if Welker causes his stats and plays to decrease, that may hurt his allure when he hits the FA market.
I don't think that Nicks is going anywhere and the rest of the potential 2014 FA WR class is pretty weak. They are either old (Boldin, S. Moss) or tremendously unappealing (Hester, Jac. Jones) or both (Walter, Cotchery).
QBs:
Chad Henne headlines my list. In a 2QB/Superflex league Henne is a valuable commodity. He may end up starting for Jax this year and get an extension, but if he doesn't, he will have the opportunity to move onto a team where he may be able to start in 2014.
The rest of the guys are pretty unappealing. Cutler is a UFA, but it's likely he will be extended. I'm over the McCown brothers, Hill has been adequate in spot starts in Detroit, but don't see anyone offering him a #1 job.
RBs:
Ben Tate leads the running backs who might get a new opportunity in 2014. I think he's an easy target, both for the possibility of 2013 production and him possibly having a featured role in 2014.
Blount is my second favorite option. While I don't love his play style, he has produced in an NFL offense, seems to be out of favor as staying as a backup in TB and could be a valuable 2 down back.
Chris Ivory is a bit of a different case because he's still technically an RFA, but I think it is highly likely he's back with the Saints for one more year. With Sproles and Thomas aging and Ingram a question mark, Ivory may either have a real opportunity in 2014 on the Saints or get a chance to move to a less crowded backfield.
There are a few higher profile RBs already starting that will be free agents as well. McFadden, MJD, Mendenhall all carry enough value that I wouldn't take their free agent status as a positive. I think it's unlikely that McFadden or Mendenhall would carry as much value in a different situation, while the best case scenario for MJD would be Steven Jackson of 2013, but I have a tough time finding a fit for him.
Other options would include Dwyer and Reece. Dwyer produced at a 4 YPC behind a pretty poor Steelers line, while Reece has looked good in limited duty. Both carry heavy red flags, so both would be late round flyers. If I'm picking between two guys with little potential, I'd rather take the one who may find greener pastures in a year. Redman may fit this as well if/when he signs his tender.
WRs:
I tend to focus more on RBs and QBs when looking at looming FA just because it's awfully rare for a WR to gain value when moving to a new team. Either a WR already carries a hefty pick, or he doesn't improve upon arriving on a new team. That being said, there are a couple guys that I will probably keep an eye on.
James Jones is the first of WR who I am interested in. I think he may go too early for my tastes as people assume he will become a starting GB WR, but he also is only under contract for 2013. The last time he approached FA, I remember targeting him as well and he re-signed in GB. He had flashed potential before 2012, but his ridiculous TD number may leave him overvalued. If he backs up his 2012 with a solid 2013, he may be viewed by another team as a legit #1 WR. Sadly, history has shown that recently these guys like to bust out. (Robinson, Meachum, jury's out of Garcon)
Jeremy Maclin is another guy who I probably have a bit more interest in because of his 2014 status. I think the implementation of Chip Kelly's offense is still a big unknown. If Maclin is deemed a non-essential part, I can easily see him moving on in 2014. I think that Maclin can serve as a #1 WR on a different team or in a different offense and I believe that his stock now is as low as it has been in the past few years.
Eric Decker becomes available after 2013, but I'm wary of adding any value because of that. I think he's likely in the best situation he can find, even with the addition of Welker. Also, if Welker causes his stats and plays to decrease, that may hurt his allure when he hits the FA market.
I don't think that Nicks is going anywhere and the rest of the potential 2014 FA WR class is pretty weak. They are either old (Boldin, S. Moss) or tremendously unappealing (Hester, Jac. Jones) or both (Walter, Cotchery).
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