Keeper Rebuild - Not focused on collecting draft picks (1 Viewer)

[CBower4545]

I am not looking for advice or opinions, just wanted to share my experience. I went in thinking about collecting draft picks, but found trading for young under-performing prospects, and young studs the better fit for my target.

I pulled the plug on the season early, (week 5). I blocked everyone of value who was not part of my long term plans. My target is to build a title contender by 2015 or 2016, and have a run for a few years. Anything I get in 2014 is just gravy. So every player on my team was evaluated most for what value I was thinking they would have 2015+. I was looking for picks or young players. Picks seem to cost more, so I bought young under performing players. Set a price for my vet guys, and did not give in early. Mostly I didn't take players who didn't fit my 2015 target. I was interested in trying to have to may 2nd deal to get the type of players that would fit my plan. I gave preference to players that I felt would fit 2015 better. 2015 & 2016 picks will go to contribute now players, be they rookies or vets. So I will more likely be focused on building through trade then the draft from here on out.

After Rebuild (2015 age) Before Rebuild(2015 age)

Aaron Rodgers(31) Tom Brady(38)
Pryor Tony Romo(35)
Pryor

Pead Pead
Richardson(25) Foster(29)
Stewart Stewart
B. Tate(27) R Rice(28)
Vereen Vereen

Cobb Cobb
Julio Jones Julio Jones
Floyd(25) Steve Smith(36)
Woods S Rice
S Rice R Broyles
R Broyles

Eifert(25) Gates(35)

Bengals Bengals

TS
Patterson Patterson
Wheaton Wheaton
Kelce Kelce

2014 Picks 2014 Picks
4 rnd 5 picks Browns 2nd, 3rd, 4th, & 5th

trade details:

Nov 20th

• Browns gave up Dalton, Andy CIN QB;Rice, Ray BAL RB; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick from Chargers
• Patriots gave up Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB;Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def

Nov 20th

• Broncos gave up Dalton, Andy CIN QB;Eifert, Tyler CIN TE; Year 2014 Round 5 Draft Pick from Broncos;Year 2014 Round 5 Draft Pick from 49ERS;Year 2014 Round 5 Draft Pick from Jets
• Browns gave up Romo, Tony DAL QB;Smith, Steve CAR WR; Year 2014 Round 2 Draft Pick from Browns;Year 2014 Round 4 Draft Pick from Browns

Nov 6th

• Jaguars gave up Tate, Ben HOU RB;Woods, Robert BUF WR
• Browns gave up Brady, Tom NEP QB;Colston, Marques NOS WR; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick from Browns

Oct 9th

• Chargers gave up Richardson, Trent IND RB;Colston, Marques NOS WR;Floyd, Michael ARI WR; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick from Chargers
• Browns gave up Foster, Arian HOU RB;Gates, Antonio SDC TE

 

[msudaisy26]

I don't mind the strategy but one the reasons I love getting rookie picks is because everyone gets draft fever in May, June, July or whenever your league has the rookie draft. The good part of that is they will over pay for picks.

I seen these trades during or right before our draft last year.

1.07 for Aaron Hernandez. I know this is a bad example because of what happened but at the time we were months away from finding out what Hernandez did and he was considered tight end 3 in dynasty

2.01 and Martellus Bennett for 2014 1st and Amendola.

Antonio Brown for 1.08

1.04 and 2.07 for Alfred Morris and Reggie Wayne

 

[Eminence]

Never play to compete, "next year". Build a nucleus of studs, take some flyers, draft some Rookies with potential, and get lucky on the WW.

Every year is winnable if you're shrewd enough.

 

[CBower4545]

Never play to compete, "next year". Build a nucleus of studs, take some flyers, draft some Rookies with potential, and get lucky on the WW.

Every year is winnable if you're shrewd enough.

You compete every year. But your nucleus will have peaks and valleys. It can bottom because of injuries, misfortune, or age. Age is the only one you can somewhat plan. So it's a factor to consider. My team was old and under performing, so it was a driving factor for me. I plan on competing in 2014, I just don't expect to be peaking. Your not punting 2014 just because you focus towards 2015. I did punt on 2013, though at some point with record, injuries, and misfortune, it's just a matter of being realistic. There comes a point when a year is no longer winnable, no matter how shrewd you are.

 

[CBower4545]

I don't mind the strategy but one the reasons I love getting rookie picks is because everyone gets draft fever in May, June, July or whenever your league has the rookie draft. The good part of that is they will over pay for picks.

I seen these trades during or right before our draft last year.

1.07 for Aaron Hernandez. I know this is a bad example because of what happened but at the time we were months away from finding out what Hernandez did and he was considered tight end 3 in dynasty

2.01 and Martellus Bennett for 2014 1st and Amendola.

Antonio Brown for 1.08

1.04 and 2.07 for Alfred Morris and Reggie Wayne

It's a fair point, I keep an eye out for it. It makes sense. However, I haven't really witnessed it in my leagues. I have gone over the data in my leagues and I haven't witnessed a value spike for draft picks. Maybe your point is true for the vast majority of leagues, and this is just odd league tendency of my leagues. I don't know. I have included all the trades of first round picks immediately leading up to and including the draft. I agree with your examples if I had seen trades like that in my leagues, I would consider holding picks until the draft.

2013 	    Jaguars gave up Mathews, Ryan SDC RB;Alexander, Danario SDC WR;Garcon, Pierre WAS WR    Giants gave up Jennings, Greg MIN WR; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.03;Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.01;Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.06	    Broncos gave up Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.10;Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.02;Year 2013 Draft Pick 3.08    Cardinals gave up Pitta, Dennis BAL TE; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.08;Year 2013 Draft Pick 4.06;Year 2013 Draft Pick 4.09		2012		Chargers gave up Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR;Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE; Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.05    49ERS gave up Thomas, Pierre NOS RB; Year 2012 Draft Pick 1.10	    Jaguars gave up Year 2012 Draft Pick 1.11    49ERS gave up Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.05;Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.10		Jets gave up Brown, Donald IND RB; Year 2012 Draft Pick 1.10;Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.10	49ERS gave up Crabtree, Michael SFO WR; Year 2012 Draft Pick 1.08;Year 2012 Draft Pick 2.08		2011	Cowboys gave up Year 2011 Draft Pick 1.03	Chargers gave up Branch, Deion NEP WR;Moss, Santana WAS WR;Clark, Dallas IND TE; Year 2011 Draft Pick 4.09    	Browns gave up Year 2011 Draft Pick 1.06;Year 2011 Draft Pick 3.06        Jets gave up Smith, Steve CAR WR; Year 2011 Draft Pick 1.10		2010	Packers gave up Kolb, Kevin PHI QB;Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB;Houshmandzadeh, T.J. BAL WR        Browns gave up Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR; Year 2010 Draft Pick 1.09    	Raiders gave up Year 2010 Draft Pick 1.05        Packers gave up Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB; Year 2010 Draft Pick 2.06		2009        Packers gave up Garrard, David JAC QB; Year 2009 Draft Pick 2.07;Year 2009 Draft Pick 3.07        Patriots gave up Smith, Steve CAR WR; Year 2009 Draft Pick 1.12    	Patriots gave up Year 2009 Draft Pick 1.12    Packers gave up Year 2009 Draft Pick 2.07;Year 2009 Draft Pick 3.07

 

[CBower4545]

Here is our in season trades involving 1st round picks. It doesn't seem like the before draft picks are getting a ton more value.

2013     Browns gave up Dalton, Andy CIN QB;Rice, Ray BAL RB; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick from Chargers    Patriots gave up Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB;Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def    Broncos gave up Giants, New York NYG Def; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick from Broncos    49ERS gave up Johnson, Chris TEN RB;Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE;Dolphins, Miami MIA Def; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick from 49ERS     Chargers gave up Richardson, Trent IND RB;Colston, Marques NOS WR;Floyd, Michael ARI WR; Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick from Chargers    Browns gave up Foster, Arian HOU RB;Gates, Antonio SDC TE	2012    49ERS gave up Hartline, Brian MIA WR; Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from Steelers;Year 2013 Round 2 Draft Pick from 49ERS    Saints gave up Bryant, Dez DAL WR	    Chargers gave up Jones, James GBP WR; Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from Chargers;Year 2013 Round 3 Draft Pick from Chargers    Cardinals gave up Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from Cardinals	    Patriots gave up Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE; Year 2013 Round 5 Draft Pick from Patriots    49ERS gave up Witten, Jason DAL TE; Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from 49ERS;Year 2013 Round 3 Draft Pick from 49ERS	    49ERS gave up Gore, Frank SFO RB;Meachem, Robert SDC WR    Jaguars gave up Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from Jaguars	    49ERS gave up Manning, Peyton DEN QB    Steelers gave up Weeden, Brandon CLE QB; Year 2013 Round 1 Draft Pick from Steelers	2011    Jaguars gave up Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB;Knox, Johnny CHI WR    Cowboys gave up Tolbert, Mike SDC RB;Garcon, Pierre IND WR; Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick from Cowboys	    Chargers gave up Morris, Maurice DET RB;Jenkins, Michael MIN WR;Miller, Heath PIT TE; Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick from Chargers;Year 2012 Round 4 Draft Pick from Chargers    Jaguars gave up Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR	2010    Browns gave up Jackson, Steven STL RB; Year 2011 Round 2 Draft Pick from Browns    Packers gave up Rivers, Philip SDC QB; Year 2011 Round 1 Draft Pick from Packers	2009	Patriots gave up Romo, Tony DAL QB	Raiders gave up Year 2010 Round 1 Draft Pick from Raiders;Year 2010 Round 2 Draft Pick from Raiders	    Cardinals gave up Collins, Kerry TEN QB;Lewis, Jamal CLE RB;Johnson, Bryant DET WR; Year 2010 Round 1 Draft Pick from Cardinals    Raiders gave up Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

 

[CBower4545]

Does anyone have some examples in season vs lead up to draft where you can see this value spike? Just curious, is this something that we think or is it something that is real?