austinball
Footballguy
Ive been considering ways to value keepers, and was wondering if any of you have a methodology you use.
We keep two players each year. No player can be kept longer than 2 consecutive years so we are always re-evaluating who to keep. To keep a player you sacrifice a draft slot (depending on when that player was drafted/picked up in our league).
Each year I eyeball the relative values of my possible keepers and make my decisions. But this year Im wondering if there's a more systematic way to measure values, especially as I consider making trade offers for other keeper candidates.
This year I can keep D Martin (for 2nd round pick) and AJ Green (for 4th round pick).
Examples of keeper candidates on other rosters to trade for include:
So for the players listed:
Obviously there are many more factors in play such as placing a premium on elite RBs. In this case Martin is a must keep. So might D Wilson.
If you place premiums on elite players overall, then D Martin and Aj Green are hard to beat, but J Graham is in the mix.
I'm just wondering if anyone has an approach for this kind of keeper thinking? How do you assign the requisite premiums for these decisions?
We keep two players each year. No player can be kept longer than 2 consecutive years so we are always re-evaluating who to keep. To keep a player you sacrifice a draft slot (depending on when that player was drafted/picked up in our league).
Each year I eyeball the relative values of my possible keepers and make my decisions. But this year Im wondering if there's a more systematic way to measure values, especially as I consider making trade offers for other keeper candidates.
This year I can keep D Martin (for 2nd round pick) and AJ Green (for 4th round pick).
Examples of keeper candidates on other rosters to trade for include:
- J Graham (3rd round)
- D Wilson (6th round)
- C Newton (9th round)
- Lamar Miller (12 round)
So for the players listed:
- D Martin -- my sacrifice pick is #13 and his ADP is #3 = 10 slots differential
- AJ Green -- pick #33 and ADP is #12 = 21 diff
- J Graham -- pick #28 and ADP is #19 = 9 diff
- D Wilson -- pick #53 and ADP is #34 = 19 diff
- C Newton -- pick #88 and ADP is #40 = 48 diff
- L Miller -- pick #113 and ADP is #43 = 70 diff
Obviously there are many more factors in play such as placing a premium on elite RBs. In this case Martin is a must keep. So might D Wilson.
If you place premiums on elite players overall, then D Martin and Aj Green are hard to beat, but J Graham is in the mix.
I'm just wondering if anyone has an approach for this kind of keeper thinking? How do you assign the requisite premiums for these decisions?