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Keeper Valuation Strategy / Thoughts (1 Viewer)


Ive been considering ways to value keepers, and was wondering if any of you have a methodology you use.

We keep two players each year. No player can be kept longer than 2 consecutive years so we are always re-evaluating who to keep. To keep a player you sacrifice a draft slot (depending on when that player was drafted/picked up in our league).

Each year I eyeball the relative values of my possible keepers and make my decisions. But this year Im wondering if there's a more systematic way to measure values, especially as I consider making trade offers for other keeper candidates.

This year I can keep D Martin (for 2nd round pick) and AJ Green (for 4th round pick).

Examples of keeper candidates on other rosters to trade for include:

  • J Graham (3rd round)
  • D Wilson (6th round)
  • C Newton (9th round)
  • Lamar Miller (12 round)
The simplest way I can think of to value these players is to look at their draft slot (in my 10 team draft) compared to their ADP.

So for the players listed:

  • D Martin -- my sacrifice pick is #13 and his ADP is #3 = 10 slots differential
  • AJ Green -- pick #33 and ADP is #12 = 21 diff
  • J Graham -- pick #28 and ADP is #19 = 9 diff
  • D Wilson -- pick #53 and ADP is #34 = 19 diff
  • C Newton -- pick #88 and ADP is #40 = 48 diff
  • L Miller -- pick #113 and ADP is #43 = 70 diff
Just going on points differential btw ADP and where the player could be picked, your two best keepers would have to be Lamar Miller and Cam Newton.

Obviously there are many more factors in play such as placing a premium on elite RBs. In this case Martin is a must keep. So might D Wilson.

If you place premiums on elite players overall, then D Martin and Aj Green are hard to beat, but J Graham is in the mix.

I'm just wondering if anyone has an approach for this kind of keeper thinking? How do you assign the requisite premiums for these decisions?

I like what you did comparing ADP with the draft position surrendered by keeping the player. Another thing to add to this would be the expected VBD from that draft position in your league over the last 2-3 seasons or longer if you wanted a larger data set. You could then find what is the average difference in VBD by draft slot This will ultimately tell you what you already know now but may be more useful for comparing relative value in trades.

I think you still want to look at each specific players situation before making a decision and use projections tied to those specific players when making the final decision. However I think it is useful to look at things this way with an open mind before ultimately making a decision as who to keep/trade away. Who you could be drafting at that draft position instead of keeping the player and what keeps other teams have that may be of greater value than the keep options you already have. This would help you establish a value for draft position which helps in making trades for picks if that is also allowed in your league.

You could look at it with auction values. Run DD (or whatever it is now) with your specific league rules and any projection tweaks you want to make. Mark down the values of each player in question. Look at the values of current players in the rounds the players in question were originally taken. Subtract and the difference is the players additional value.

For example:

Doug Martin would be worth $50 this year

The 13th player picker this year would be about $40

Value = $10


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