Keeper Value Formula (1 Viewer)

[woeisme]

Example: How do you value a 1st Rd RB kept as your 4th pick over a 4th or 5th ranked QB kept as your 9th pick?

 

[Bayhawks]

Example: How do you value a 1st Rd RB kept as your 4th pick over a 4th or 5th ranked QB kept as your 9th pick?

Look at their ADP. If the 1st round RB has a higher ADP than what you'd be giving up, it's a good value. If he doesn't, it isn't.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Example: How do you value a 1st Rd RB kept as your 4th pick over a 4th or 5th ranked QB kept as your 9th pick?

Look at their ADP. If the 1st round RB has a higher ADP than what you'd be giving up, it's a good value. If he doesn't, it isn't.

This is a good start, but I'd go further.I'd also look at the pick value calculator. Use the value of the potential keeper's draft pick and compare that to the value of the pick you'd give up to keep that player. That's another clue as to the value differences.In you example, a 1st Rd RB is going to have a high point value for the draft pick matching his ADP. That difference (between a 1st and a 4th) is likely to be much greater than the difference between a 4th or 5th pick in comparison to a 9th.To say it one last way - it is easier to replace the 9th round valued keeper QB with a pick after the 4th or 5th, keeping the same value, than it is to pick a 1st round type RB in Round 4.

 

[woeisme]

What if I expect the QB to be gone much earlier than that? Say the 3rd or 4th RD? If you go with the RB you must replace the QB with equal value. But if you go with the QB you get that 4th RD pick to add value.There would seem to be a sliding scale of value. A 1st RD RB kept in the 4th round could be equal or worth less that a 3rd RD QB kept in the 9th. The difference in the ADP and the actual RD kept has to be greater the farther back in the draft your go. And when calculating the VBD for a playercould you multiply it by a factor the farther back in the draft the player is kept.Sorry, my thoughts are all over the place on this...

Example: How do you value a 1st Rd RB kept as your 4th pick over a 4th or 5th ranked QB kept as your 9th pick?

Look at their ADP. If the 1st round RB has a higher ADP than what you'd be giving up, it's a good value. If he doesn't, it isn't.

This is a good start, but I'd go further.I'd also look at the pick value calculator. Use the value of the potential keeper's draft pick and compare that to the value of the pick you'd give up to keep that player. That's another clue as to the value differences.In you example, a 1st Rd RB is going to have a high point value for the draft pick matching his ADP. That difference (between a 1st and a 4th) is likely to be much greater than the difference between a 4th or 5th pick in comparison to a 9th.To say it one last way - it is easier to replace the 9th round valued keeper QB with a pick after the 4th or 5th, keeping the same value, than it is to pick a 1st round type RB in Round 4.

 

[toxic]

I'd also look at the pick value calculator. Use the value of the potential keeper's draft pick and compare that to the value of the pick you'd give up to keep that player. That's another clue as to the value differences.In you example, a 1st Rd RB is going to have a high point value for the draft pick matching his ADP. That difference (between a 1st and a 4th) is likely to be much greater than the difference between a 4th or 5th pick in comparison to a 9th.To say it one last way - it is easier to replace the 9th round valued keeper QB with a pick after the 4th or 5th, keeping the same value, than it is to pick a 1st round type RB in Round 4.

This is generally the process I also follow, but I tend to do it in a case-by-case evaluation rather than with a standard pick calculator. The problem with standard pick calculators in keeper leagues is that late round keepers significantly alter where players will get picked and therefore alter expected pick values. For example, if a dozen players who are normally picked in early rounds are being kept in later rounds (players like Slaton, Forte, Chris Johnson, Avery, Ward, Roddy White, Royal, etc), the talent drops off much more quickly in the early rounds than it would in a normal redraft without keepers (Witten may go on the second-third round turn instead of mid-fourth for example). As a result, I tend to project out what effect different keepers would have on my eventual team and bypass the numeric calculator. The principle is the same, but I get a better feel for the likely effect of the keeper on my end roster that way.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I'd also look at the pick value calculator. Use the value of the potential keeper's draft pick and compare that to the value of the pick you'd give up to keep that player. That's another clue as to the value differences.In you example, a 1st Rd RB is going to have a high point value for the draft pick matching his ADP. That difference (between a 1st and a 4th) is likely to be much greater than the difference between a 4th or 5th pick in comparison to a 9th.To say it one last way - it is easier to replace the 9th round valued keeper QB with a pick after the 4th or 5th, keeping the same value, than it is to pick a 1st round type RB in Round 4.

This is generally the process I also follow, but I tend to do it in a case-by-case evaluation rather than with a standard pick calculator. The problem with standard pick calculators in keeper leagues is that late round keepers significantly alter where players will get picked and therefore alter expected pick values. For example, if a dozen players who are normally picked in early rounds are being kept in later rounds (players like Slaton, Forte, Chris Johnson, Avery, Ward, Roddy White, Royal, etc), the talent drops off much more quickly in the early rounds than it would in a normal redraft without keepers (Witten may go on the second-third round turn instead of mid-fourth for example). As a result, I tend to project out what effect different keepers would have on my eventual team and bypass the numeric calculator. The principle is the same, but I get a better feel for the likely effect of the keeper on my end roster that way.

In this case I would just start with a later round - i.e. if there are 2 keepers per team, then the first pick is worth 3.01. Calculators are all relative to the first pick available anyway, but this should assist in lower value of players available.

 

[toxic]

I'd also look at the pick value calculator. Use the value of the potential keeper's draft pick and compare that to the value of the pick you'd give up to keep that player. That's another clue as to the value differences.In you example, a 1st Rd RB is going to have a high point value for the draft pick matching his ADP. That difference (between a 1st and a 4th) is likely to be much greater than the difference between a 4th or 5th pick in comparison to a 9th.To say it one last way - it is easier to replace the 9th round valued keeper QB with a pick after the 4th or 5th, keeping the same value, than it is to pick a 1st round type RB in Round 4.

This is generally the process I also follow, but I tend to do it in a case-by-case evaluation rather than with a standard pick calculator. The problem with standard pick calculators in keeper leagues is that late round keepers significantly alter where players will get picked and therefore alter expected pick values. For example, if a dozen players who are normally picked in early rounds are being kept in later rounds (players like Slaton, Forte, Chris Johnson, Avery, Ward, Roddy White, Royal, etc), the talent drops off much more quickly in the early rounds than it would in a normal redraft without keepers (Witten may go on the second-third round turn instead of mid-fourth for example). As a result, I tend to project out what effect different keepers would have on my eventual team and bypass the numeric calculator. The principle is the same, but I get a better feel for the likely effect of the keeper on my end roster that way.

In this case I would just start with a later round - i.e. if there are 2 keepers per team, then the first pick is worth 3.01. Calculators are all relative to the first pick available anyway, but this should assist in lower value of players available.

That would provide a better approximation, but it is still a bit messy. The number of slots you need to shift a pick to get an accurate value changes as you proceed through the draft (some of the keepers would have been first round picks, some second, some ninth). As a result, you cannot really adjust by a constant because the early round picks are "off" much more than the late round picks. If there are 12 players kept in rounds 5 through 8 that would have been otherwise picked in the first three rounds, a player who would have been picked at 4.01 will now likely go at 3.01. However, a player who is normally drafted at 9.01 will still be drafted at 9.01 since the draft picks used for the keepers "catch up" to the draft. All that complexity aside, it is certainly true that you could approximate the adjusted pick number for any situation with enough effort. However, if you are going to go to that much effort, why not just project out the players you are likely to pick at different spots and assess the final composition of the team and its projected value (especially since you can then account for your scoring-specific expected ADP)?

 

[woeisme]

Thanks for your input. I appreciate it.

I'd also look at the pick value calculator. Use the value of the potential keeper's draft pick and compare that to the value of the pick you'd give up to keep that player. That's another clue as to the value differences.In you example, a 1st Rd RB is going to have a high point value for the draft pick matching his ADP. That difference (between a 1st and a 4th) is likely to be much greater than the difference between a 4th or 5th pick in comparison to a 9th.To say it one last way - it is easier to replace the 9th round valued keeper QB with a pick after the 4th or 5th, keeping the same value, than it is to pick a 1st round type RB in Round 4.

This is generally the process I also follow, but I tend to do it in a case-by-case evaluation rather than with a standard pick calculator. The problem with standard pick calculators in keeper leagues is that late round keepers significantly alter where players will get picked and therefore alter expected pick values. For example, if a dozen players who are normally picked in early rounds are being kept in later rounds (players like Slaton, Forte, Chris Johnson, Avery, Ward, Roddy White, Royal, etc), the talent drops off much more quickly in the early rounds than it would in a normal redraft without keepers (Witten may go on the second-third round turn instead of mid-fourth for example). As a result, I tend to project out what effect different keepers would have on my eventual team and bypass the numeric calculator. The principle is the same, but I get a better feel for the likely effect of the keeper on my end roster that way.

In this case I would just start with a later round - i.e. if there are 2 keepers per team, then the first pick is worth 3.01. Calculators are all relative to the first pick available anyway, but this should assist in lower value of players available.

That would provide a better approximation, but it is still a bit messy. The number of slots you need to shift a pick to get an accurate value changes as you proceed through the draft (some of the keepers would have been first round picks, some second, some ninth). As a result, you cannot really adjust by a constant because the early round picks are "off" much more than the late round picks. If there are 12 players kept in rounds 5 through 8 that would have been otherwise picked in the first three rounds, a player who would have been picked at 4.01 will now likely go at 3.01. However, a player who is normally drafted at 9.01 will still be drafted at 9.01 since the draft picks used for the keepers "catch up" to the draft. All that complexity aside, it is certainly true that you could approximate the adjusted pick number for any situation with enough effort. However, if you are going to go to that much effort, why not just project out the players you are likely to pick at different spots and assess the final composition of the team and its projected value (especially since you can then account for your scoring-specific expected ADP)?

 

[Black]

I think you are trying to do what Pasquino is talking about, which is determine what is better 'value'...keeping a '5th round value' for a 10th round pick, or a '1st round value' for a 2nd round pick.

I have been thinking about this from a different angle. I am trying to also consider a 'weighting factor' that exists in all keeper league drafts, since these drafts effectively jump into the draft well after round 1.

If your league keeps 2 players per team, and those players (for simplicity sake) happen to be the top 20 players, you effectively start your draft in round three. So, if you have Marshawn Lynch, maybe 4th round value in redraft, he's going to go in the 2nd round of your draft.

The easiest rule of thumb if you are comparing one guy to another is 'can you get the guy back' in this year's draft?

What I've done is take an ordered list of top players (redraft ADP), grey out the guys I expect to be kept, then start counting by groups of 10 to see how each round fills out. See where your guy 'would' go if left. You'll need to factor in your QB heavy and PPR leagues to know where guys normally go.

Example:

For one league I have, each team keeps 2 players, exchanging the round you drafted the player originally. When I look at the numbers, about 15 of the top 20 players are kept. That means that 1.5 rounds of the draft are 'done' before a player is taken.

So, if I have a player I drafted in the 5th round last year (Roddy White). ADP in redraft is 3rd round. In my league after 15 top 20 players are kept, that's effectively a late 1st rounder. Roddy should be one of the top 10 players taken off the board. So for me, he's effectively a 1st round pick for a 5th round exchange.

If you are keeping guys perpetually, you need to think about their future value. I've kept MJD since his rookie year, had some so-so years, but now have a top player for a 14th round pick.