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Kelvin Benjamin - WR - FSU [UPDATE PAGE 1, 7/3] (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
This scenario is a good exercise in training correct behavior. Similar to the traits required of a good trader, you need to train your brain to reward good decisions and vice versa. Sometimes you will benefit off poor decisions and suffer from good decisions. Starting Benjamin was the poorer decision (between starting him or not) due to the 'snap count' quotes from his HC combined with him coming of ACL and combined with going against the toughest pass defense in the league. If you started him and are being rewarded, that's fine, be happy as hell it worked out, but you also must realize that you got lucky from a poor decision. Unless you had very limited options, I think sitting him was the smarter play.
Insein
Footballguy
Or rather you drafted a starting WR, paid zero attention to the noise and started him since you know, he's a starter.
I think the lesson is the over thinking of FF due to noise. Last year when I was honed in on all the latest updates, I know I would have benched KB based on the snap count comments. This year, I am ignoring everything. I set KB in my lineup after the draft and low and behold he is playing well.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I agree with this line of thinking too. I guess it's a fine line. I mentioned having options, so I suppose that's the line. I had options so it was easier for me to bench him.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Im guessing anyone with KB has him as a WR3 at worst. Im sure some may have a better WR3/4 or TE2 if its a flex, I was considering those options myself, but especially in week 1 I dont see how you can bench one of your top 5 picks. Similar thought process about benching Cam tonight.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
JimmyJabroni
Footballguy
Forgot how big this guy was...he looks huge out there...gonna have a great season if he stays healthy.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Well, I learned my lesson. I won't be sitting him again.
kelvin looked a 1/2 step slow to me and defnitely huskier looking than i remember, but you have to be happy with 12 targets and I didnt notice him taking too many plays off
in both of my leagues. I should not have bought into all of the negativity. 
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
I was way off on him, what a steal, 27th WR chosen in my league. He looked fantastic. Wish I could get a do over.. he looks primed for a Top 15 year.
Week 1 overreaction thread hasn't been created yet, but this post is a prime example of what should be in it.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
I had Benjamin two years ago as a Rookie, he finished as a Top 15, why wouldn't he do that again?
I actually overreacted in the pre-season, and moved him down too low...
Opportunity. As in, he won't have as much of one this season. You can't reasonably extrapolate one game out for an entire season. He'll be fine, but I would bet against him being top-15 ever again in his career.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Spent all my auction money on Gurley and Gronk and had to punt on WR. Ended up with Benjamin as my #1 for $8. No ragrets.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Good job by the experts downgrading this guy.
Because I think there are 20-25 more talented WRs out there who are in better opportunities. Oh, and I fully expect Newton to miss a lot of games if he continues to get hit like he did last night. I realize that few defenses have the talent that Denver does, but this is a copycat league and he is going to get hit as often as possible.
Very possible, but you have to admit that the circumstances which caused his 2014 season have changed.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Not really, a few team mates have changed but it's the same coaching staff, same scheme and the same QB who loves him so much that he got depressed when he got injured last year.
No BRAINER......KB=stud!
Tex
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
He reminds me a lot of Mike Evans. 6'5", 240-250; probably not going to get a lot of YAC like OBJ, nor do I expect a ton of receptions like Brown, but his QB obviously favors him, he's a great red zone target, and his YPC is above average.
~ 80 receptions, 1200-1300 yds and 10-12 TDs seems about right if he and Newton can both stay healthy.
~ 80 receptions, 1200-1300 yds and 10-12 TDs seems about right if he and Newton can both stay healthy.
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
His elite QB had an off game (stats) against a very good defensive team on the road and he still performed well. Top 15 seems very likely to me.
massraider
Footballguy
Yeah. People who didn't like him coming out of college, looking for a reason, that's what it is.
I own him in 3/4 of my leagues...benched him in all an hour before kickoff. Too much about how long since he played a meaningful game, snap count, rounding back into football shape, @DEN, etc. lol. Oh well at least I own him and didn't pay a lot.Kenny Powers said:
Into the starting lineup for week 2 across the board, definitely
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Dismattle
Footballguy
please dont do that
Benjamin has like 32" vert Evans has 37" and ran a 4.53 40yd
Height weight yes but not much else im afraid
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
As one of the most prolific running QBs in league history, Newton has always been a target for defenders (yet played in 78/80 possible games in the five seasons leading up to 2016).
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
Okay scout, you got any data to back that up?
For their careers, both players average exactly 4.7 receptions per start. Benjamin averages 68 yards a start; Evans, 73. Both players average .55 TDs a start. In Benjamin's full 2014 season, he finished 139th in YAC. That same year Evans finished 140th.
And like you said, add in the fact they both run 6'5", ~ 240, and I'd couldn't imagine finding two WRs that mirror each other much closer.
I believe with going with my gut, and have had good success doing that. (Not just in FF). Every time I watched Benjamin, he impressed me, and when he was not kept in our keeper league last year after his knee injury, I picked him up in the 7th round (high) and sat on him all year. I feel he'll be top 10 for a lot of years. I had all intentions of keeping him as one of my 5 this year, even when the over-whelming negative hype hit, I just felt he and the situation was special. I don't see the "it" in Funchess. It did mean that I would have to let Latavious Murray go (a ho hum feeling), but his ranking continued to rise.
On the day of our draft, I looked at the FBG experts opinion one more time and across the board Benjamin had fallen into the 100's+ (they just didn't like him) and Murray had moved around #25. I couldn't see where one FBG expert was seeing what I saw in Benjamin, they have got to know better, right? So, right when I was to turn in my keepers, I made the switch to let Benjamin go.
Needless to say, I did not sleep very well last night.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Talk about overreacting! A young promising WR who put up a top 15 season as a rookie who plays on a young team ob the rise with a QB who loves throwing to him... And you think he'll NEVER reach that production level again? Who is overreacting?
In general, it's a good idea to bet against a repeat of a career year.
See also: Riddick, Theo
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Willie Neslon
Footballguy
I swear to god one "expert" has an opinion and then all the other touts parrot that opinion. How can every "pro" have the same exact outlook on Bortles? Oh, he's going to regress because the defense is better and they won't be behind in games as much. He'll be a better nfl qb, just not in fantasy. I swear I've read about 12 different experts say some variation of this. Same thing with Benjamin. Everyone was down, some even saying Funchess would lead the team in receiving. I gotta stop reading this stuff.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Sure but calling his rookie year a career year, while technically accurate, that's probably not going to be the case. I was not a Kelvin fan coming out of college. All of his metrics were below average but I'd be a fool to ignore his actual NFL production. And with 1 full season plus 1 game on the books, it seems pretty clear this guy is a FF starter in all formats requiring at least 2 starting WRs. It's also clear that aside from the aging Olsen, Benjamin is the only reliable target in the pass game and Newton looks his way early and often. He's still a below average athlete but it really doesn't matter for FF.
"If it is more, great, I'd be really excited about it," Rivera said. "He's actually done some really good things. You see him really getting back into stride and that's probably the best thing. You see him taking more reps, you see him doing the extra work, you see him working with Cam (Newton) on the side, so he's gaining more and more confidence in it. As the game progresses, if we hit that number, great. If we exceed it, that's even better for it."
Sometimes have to dig through the Rotoworld blurbs about "only" a 35 snap count and awful analysis or the one or two lines of text on twitter. It was never going to be a hard limit on his snap count, just was going to be based on how the game went and how Kelvin held up. It was easy to read between the coach speak lines here IMO.
Sometimes have to dig through the Rotoworld blurbs about "only" a 35 snap count and awful analysis or the one or two lines of text on twitter. It was never going to be a hard limit on his snap count, just was going to be based on how the game went and how Kelvin held up. It was easy to read between the coach speak lines here IMO.
It's also clear to me that you are extrapolating too much from a sample size of one game.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Evans
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Evans_(wide_receiver)
Benjamin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelvin_Benjamin
Evans is faster and jumps higher. But based on size, what other WRs could you possibly compare Benjamin to, BUT Evans (Calvin Johnson retired, about 6'5", 240 lbs., but the point about speed differentiation more well taken in his case, he famously ran something like a 4.39 with borrowed shoes)? Only a 1/4" separates arm length (Evan 35 1/8", Benjamin 34 7/8").
They also come to mind somewhat as cohorts not just due to size, but for comprising 2/3 of the unprecedented class of '14 rookie trio of 1,000 yard receivers (very nearly a quartet, with Watkins missing by less than 20 yards).
ME - 68/1,0521/12
KB - 73/1,008/9
* That said, Evans is a far superior dynasty prospect. But size is exactly why you would compare them. And their production as rookies had more similarities than differences.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Ha ha! Sure thing, buddy. I'm using his whole career not just one game. Everything about hos short career so far goes against what you predict for him. But yeah, I'm the one making giant leaps based on nothing. Lol.
