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Keyshawn's effect on Steve Smith (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Marino13
- Start date
nygiants56
Footballguy
teams could'nt stop Smith last year when they had him doubled or in some cases, tripled, so adding a WR with the abilities of Keyshawn can only help!!Colbert is quickly turning into another Peter Warrick, an overrated WR that never really made the leap to a full time starting player..
Adding Key gives them a big target who'll demand attention at the LOS..he's better than Moose was..I'd look at Keyshawn as a guy like Bobby Engram was/is to Darrell Jackson..a strong possession type of WR that'll work to keep the chains moving, allowing Smith to be the homerun threat...
let them run more, if they get a great RB, it'll leave Smith in more 1-on-1 situations, since defenses will not only focus on him,but on the RB as well..
I love this move by Carolina..
great signing, IMO..
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
I think it will have a great impact on the Carolina running game. With teams having to double Smith and a decent 2nd WR to account for now could have a huge impact on how many guys can be put in the box to stop the run.
Bump Panthers RB #1 up a spot.
Bump Panthers RB #1 up a spot.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I think Smith takes alittle bit of a hit. Keyshawn is going to catch 70 balls this year, he has every other year except when TB gave him the hook and his rookie year. Colbert only caught 25 last year. Smith was focused last year all game long, this year they have alot better options. I'm not saying Smith isn't going to be a top flight guy but I think he drops from about #4 to about #8.
I don't think he'll put up the same numbers he did last year. Hard to duplicate a completely dominating performance like that.
But I do think having a competent reciever opposite from him will loosen up the coverage on him a bit. Key gets the dink and dunk chain movers, Smith still gets the big plays.
But I do think having a competent reciever opposite from him will loosen up the coverage on him a bit. Key gets the dink and dunk chain movers, Smith still gets the big plays.
nygiants56
Footballguy
Key should catch upwards of 70+ balls...thats perfect..it still allows Smith to be a major force, like you said, still a legit top 8 WR.....he might get fewer catches, but should have more TD opportunities, since there are fewer guys to cover him now with Keyshawn on board..I just look at the stats the team had a few years ago when they went to the SB, they had a great running game with Davis, and Smith still put up very good numbers at the time..
Gopher State
Footballguy
I think Smith takes alittle bit of a hit. Keyshawn is going to catch 70 balls this year, he has every other year except when TB gave him the hook and his rookie year. Colbert only caught 25 last year. Smith was focused last year all game long, this year they have alot better options. I'm not saying Smith isn't going to be a top flight guy but I think he drops from about #4 to about #8.
coco the monkey
Footballguy
My numbers:
Delhomme 3600 yards
Keyshawn 800 yards
Runningbacks 500 yards
Tight Ends 350 yards
Carter, Colbert etc 500 yards
Steve Smith 1450 yards and another 50 rushing
Delhomme 3600 yards
Keyshawn 800 yards
Runningbacks 500 yards
Tight Ends 350 yards
Carter, Colbert etc 500 yards
Steve Smith 1450 yards and another 50 rushing
hotdampepperman
Footballguy
I still think he'll be a top 3 wr, just my opinion tho, and you all know what those are like 
Proehl/Colbert/Gardner/Cater combined for 64/940/8
I think Key-Johnson brings much need stability to CAR #2 WR spot and that can only be a plus for S.Smith. Though I do expect to see a tiny dip in S.Smith's production only do to the fact I think he had his career year.
The stability and block Key-Johnson brings will have a positive affect on the running game as long as teh RB's can stay healthy.
TE's will be the ones who take a hit in production though they haven't really done anything the last few years anyway.
A++ pickup IMO
I think Key-Johnson brings much need stability to CAR #2 WR spot and that can only be a plus for S.Smith. Though I do expect to see a tiny dip in S.Smith's production only do to the fact I think he had his career year.
The stability and block Key-Johnson brings will have a positive affect on the running game as long as teh RB's can stay healthy.
TE's will be the ones who take a hit in production though they haven't really done anything the last few years anyway.
A++ pickup IMO
DropKick
Footballguy
A step down. But Smith will get his - too much of a play maker.
Look at how skewed the receiving numbers were last year! Proehl and Colbert at 25 receptions? Throw someone in the mix who can catch 60-80 balls and I think Smith has to take a hit.
Receiving Stats
Player No Yds Avg Long TD
Steve Smith 103 1563 15.2 80 12
Ricky Proehl 25 441 17.6 69 4
DeShaun Foster 34 372 10.9 47 1
Keary Colbert 25 282 11.3 42 2
Kris Mangum 23 202 8.8 24 2
Michael Gaines 12 155 12.9 38 2
Nick Goings 14 151 10.8 30 0
Drew Carter 5 103 20.6 40 1
Brad Hoover 14 87 6.2 12 0
Rod Gardner 9 84 9.3 15 1
Stephen Davis 5 45 9.0 21 0
Look at how skewed the receiving numbers were last year! Proehl and Colbert at 25 receptions? Throw someone in the mix who can catch 60-80 balls and I think Smith has to take a hit.
Receiving Stats
Player No Yds Avg Long TD
Steve Smith 103 1563 15.2 80 12
Ricky Proehl 25 441 17.6 69 4
DeShaun Foster 34 372 10.9 47 1
Keary Colbert 25 282 11.3 42 2
Kris Mangum 23 202 8.8 24 2
Michael Gaines 12 155 12.9 38 2
Nick Goings 14 151 10.8 30 0
Drew Carter 5 103 20.6 40 1
Brad Hoover 14 87 6.2 12 0
Rod Gardner 9 84 9.3 15 1
Stephen Davis 5 45 9.0 21 0
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I agree. Jake Delhomme is the new and improved Jeff Blake.
diesel7982
Footballguy
Why does everyone always mention Keary Colbert but not Drew Carter?
Carter was the better WR last year, though Im aware Colbert was injured.
Carter was the better WR last year, though Im aware Colbert was injured.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Drew Carter has like 9 career catches. How can you say he's better? Based on one catch vs Seattle in a playoffs game?
Colbert had a solid Rookie season and then fell off last year.
Anyone beside S.Smith has little value in this passing game. Delhomme has tunnel vision. Now with Keyshawn there too, Colbert value drops to late/deep sleeper and Drew Carter has no value at all.
Colbert had a solid Rookie season and then fell off last year.
Anyone beside S.Smith has little value in this passing game. Delhomme has tunnel vision. Now with Keyshawn there too, Colbert value drops to late/deep sleeper and Drew Carter has no value at all.
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UnknownCoach
Footballguy
He's definately going to take a hit. It is amazing that Delhomme has been able to get the ball to a single wide receiver the last two years like he did. Producing the top fantasy receiver in both years. It will look more like it did when they had Muhammad and Smith both together as Keyshawn's skill set is nearly identicle to Muhammad's. Although Keyshawn is declining and Smith is rising. So Smith should have a slightly better year than he did 3 years ago.
Now if Foster goes down again, Smith could have another grand year. As their talent would dictate an emphasized passing game.
Now if Foster goes down again, Smith could have another grand year. As their talent would dictate an emphasized passing game.
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aussiehockeyfan
Footballguy
Obviously his overall #s are going to take hit. That's the general rule of thumb when your team gets a competent upgrade at the other WR spot. But he'll probably be more consistent next season - which is a plus.
coco the monkey
Footballguy
Really, since when? Everything I've seen shows that a competent WR at the #2 spot helps, not hurts, the #1 receiver. Most of the top receivers have atleast a decent WR on the other side.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
Past statistical research attempts by various people have always led to the conclusion that a WR2's stats have no relationship to the stats of WR1.
coco the monkey
Footballguy
Thus Smith's stats should be uneffected by what Keyshawn does? That's pretty much the contention then? His stats may decrease a bit just because 1600 yards is hard to maintain but it's not going to be because Carolina signed Keyshawn. If Smith's open, Delhomme will find him, just like last year. Keyshawn should help sustain drives with his ability to move the chains, resulting in more plays and thus more pass attempts. Carolina was near the bottom last year in that aspect.
coco the monkey
Footballguy
That was also Delhomme's first year as a starting QB and Carolina had the reigns on for the first half of the year.
UnknownCoach
Footballguy
Except that statistics never tell the whole story. This is an extra unique situation that I wouldnt compare to any other past example.
I've never understood why people think #2 receivers won't get looks from Delhomme. This is a very big misconception, just look at 2003 and 2004:
2003:
Steve Smith - 88 receptions 1105 yards 7 TDs
Moose - 54 receptions 837 yards 3 TDs
2004:
Moose - 93 receptions 1405 yards 16 TDs
Colbert - 47 receptions 754 yards 5 TDs
Last season Colbert was incapable of beating his man, and on the rare occasion he did he dropped the ball. It isn't any coincidence that when Drew Carter was activated in week 15 Delhomme targeted him alot, and the reason being is that Carter was getting open.
2003:
Steve Smith - 88 receptions 1105 yards 7 TDs
Moose - 54 receptions 837 yards 3 TDs
2004:
Moose - 93 receptions 1405 yards 16 TDs
Colbert - 47 receptions 754 yards 5 TDs
Last season Colbert was incapable of beating his man, and on the rare occasion he did he dropped the ball. It isn't any coincidence that when Drew Carter was activated in week 15 Delhomme targeted him alot, and the reason being is that Carter was getting open.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Some good posts made assesing this situation allready.I think Steve Smith hit a peak last year that will not be repeated by him again. Amazing considering he was just coming off an injury which might indicate he will be better another year removed from it. However I don't think so.
I expect his numbers to be an average of what he did 2003 and 2005. So 95 catches 1330 yards 9.5 TDs if MeShawn does not cut into them.MeShawn will be a good second option for Delhomme that was missing last year. However he is not as fast as Mushin and cannot streach the field the way Mushin did.He is however a reliable enough reciever that I could see him catching more than the 50 or so receptions that WR 2 has been getting in this offense with Delhomme. WR 3 is good for about 25 catches.Total average rushing attempts have been 470 over the past 4 years even with Rb injuries. If the Panthers do not add a significant Rb to compliment Foster then there may be more passing attempts than we have seen from this offense but I still would not expect a large change from thier low in 2004 which was still 422 rusing attempts the most going to Nick Goings:
As has been pointed out MeShawn Johnson has not caught less than 70 balls in his career except when benched in Tampa for his behavior.I don't see the Panthers offense offering him the same opportunities as he has had in previous offenses though and so I would expect a compromise which will garner MeShawn Johnson 60 catches in this offense (and perhps a lot of complaints by him as pointed out by unlucky).That is 10 more catches than the WR 2 has been getting in this offense with Delhomme so this may be 10 less for Steve Smith.2006 Steve Smith 85 catches 1207 yards (using his career average) 8 TD (im taking one away because of MeShawns ability in the red zone.)
coco the monkey
Footballguy
That would signal a downtick in the Panthers passing efficiency with Keyshawn on board, so I think your numbers are very low. They didn't let Delhomme throw the ball for the first 5 games of 2003 and Smith's numbers suffered. The final 11 games he averaged 80 yards a game or about 1300 yards for the season. Last year almost 1600 yards. He should be able to stretch the field more with Keyshawn working the underneath stuff, so I can't see his YPC dipping under 15.5. Also can't see his catches under 90, 100 last year and 88 in 2003 with a lame duck Delhomme for the first 5 games. That would put him at 1400 yards. Smith was never a big redzone target anyways so Keyshawn taking that role does little to effect his TD number. Key's never been much of a TD scorer in his own right anyways. Last 2 years the Panthers #1 WR has scored 16 and 13 TDs respectively. The #2 has gotten 5 and 4 TDs in those same years. Key's had 6 TDs in each of the past 2 years and hasn't had more than that in 6 years. So even if you take a couple additional TDs away from the #1 and give them to Keyshawn, making the #2 receiver a 6-7 TD scorer, you're still looking at 10-14 TDs for the #1 receiver. 90 catches 1400 yards and 11-12 TDs seems like a conservative estimate to me, given what's happened in the past and the belief that having Keyshawn on board will result in a few more pass attempts by Delhomme.
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Gopher State
Footballguy
Obviously his overall #s are going to take hit. That's the general rule of thumb when your team gets a competent upgrade at the other WR spot. But he'll probably be more consistent next season - which is a plus.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I hope everyone is listening to this guy...DREW CARTER has NO VALUE.
DREW CARTER has NO VALUE.
DREW CARTER has NO VALUE.
Are you guys in my leagues paying attention?
Just in case you missed it...
DREW CARTER has NO VALUE.
He's slow, has no hands, and was horrible in practice last year. Add up the variables and the only conclusion is...
DREW CARTER has NO VALUE.
coco the monkey
Footballguy
Hate to beat a dead horse so I'll bow out of this thread now, but only 3 of Smith's 13 TDs were short yardage, ie 10 yards or less. Most were longer than 20 yards. They didn't look to him much near the endzone anyways, that's not his game. And again Keyshawn hasn't scored more than 6 Tds in 6 years, he's not a big TD scorer, that's been the knock on him for awhile. Proehl had 4 last year and Colbert 5 the year before. I'm not seeing much difference as far as TD stealing.
Slow? The guy is the fastest player on our ####### team dude. I'll give you that he doesn't have good hands, but he can improve that. Not sure what being horrible in practice has to do with anything, when he got into the games he was getting open alot.Drew Carter's production last season if estimated over a 16 games schedule would've given him over 600 yards and 5 TDs on the season. He's going to be the #3 receiver next season, mark my words.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Keyshawn brings Smith from an NFL MVP candidate to only and OPOY candidate....slight bump down but he's got the room to spare.
Assani Fisher
Footballguy
Smith will be drafted as a top 3 WR but will only perform like a top 12 WR.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Yeah, He's a shoo-in for 80-1200-10. His value only went up with Keyshawn coming to town.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well I always look more on the low end when projecting a baseline. From there I factor the players potential for upside/downside and end up with a variable expectation. Your average YPC is higher than Smith has ever posted. He could reach or exceed this but I don't see any reason to expect that he will. I used his career average of 14.4 YPC. With the high number of catches expected I don't see any reason to expect an increase in YPC honestly.
Mushin was much more of a deep threat than MeShawn is. Safeties had to account for him more deep than they will MeShawn. This will lead to coverage rolling Smiths way more. Smith is very illusive and can beat double and triple teams as he did last year however MeShawn provides a much more reliable option for Delhomme than he had available last year and I expect him to check down away from targeting Smith more in these situations because of that.
As far as the total pass attempts I do think we might see an increase there unless the Panthers aquire another Rb to compliment Foster who is not very durable. My projections are based on a 470 rushing attempt average which limits pass attempt potential which could be an increase by as much as 50 or more if the Panthers are not able to run the ball as often as I pointed out when mentioning thier low in rushing attempts of 422. In that situation I could see 30 more catches being distributed amoung the available receivers and Smiths pie is close to 50% of those. That would be part of the upside variable.
coco the monkey
Footballguy
I can see Delhomme using Keyshawn as a check down as well, but I think a lot of that production will be cut from the RB receiving numbers. That's who he used for his check down before. On a percentage of pass attempts basis, the only teams that used their RBs more were Philly, Detroit and SF.
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railman305
Footballguy
i agree with most of you smith want see nearly the number of targets, key should be able to grab 50-70 balls, but smith still should be a top 5 WR, just not as explosive as last yr. maybe no more 200 yd games sorry guys
Traders2001
Footballguy
Keyshawn is now a average WR , it wont make any difference for Smith.
Keyshawn will catch 30 to 45 balls all year, and will announce his retirement at the end of htis season.
Keyshawn will catch 30 to 45 balls all year, and will announce his retirement at the end of htis season.
Buckeyedawgs
Footballguy
my 2 cents on this.
1. Smith had a few games where they just couldnt get him involved.
Take this away and his 2005 stats would have been amazeing!
2. Keyshawn can help him more then hurt him with stats. Because of his experiance and blocking alone except red zone targets perhaps.
I expect better consistancy from Smith. But not so many huge huge games.
I think overall his stats could be similar to last year. I don't expect a major drop off. I expect plenty of catch and run long tds from him once again. Keyshawn/Foster to deal with should open up more room.
1. Smith had a few games where they just couldnt get him involved.
Take this away and his 2005 stats would have been amazeing!
2. Keyshawn can help him more then hurt him with stats. Because of his experiance and blocking alone except red zone targets perhaps.
I expect better consistancy from Smith. But not so many huge huge games.
I think overall his stats could be similar to last year. I don't expect a major drop off. I expect plenty of catch and run long tds from him once again. Keyshawn/Foster to deal with should open up more room.
packersfan
Footballguy
Replace Moose with Keyshawn and I think this could come very close to what we'll see from Smith/Johnson in 2006. I think Smith will top 90 receptions (90-95) and reach double-digit TDs but the breakdown is pretty close to where I would project them.As stated earlier, most of Smith's TDs came on big plays so adding Keyshawn in the Red Zone won't affect Smith there. And given how many of Smith's TDs came on big plays it stands to reason those plays will remain in the playbook and won't be affected by Keyshawn's arrival. For example, the quick hitch route the Panthers love to throw to Smith where Delhomme takes a step back fires out to Smith who then is given the ability to use his athletic ability to make a big play. And he makes a lot of them on that route alone.
I'm not worried about Smith in the least based on this signing. So much of what the Panthers want to do is based on putting Smith in positions where he can utilize his speed and overall athletic ability. I don't see how Keyshawn's arrival changes any of that. It simply gives Delhomme a more dependable No. 2 option than he had last season.
Johnson will be used more as a red zone target and short passing routes.
Translated value
Upgrade Foster Yardage, due to Johnson being a "complete" WR according to NFL network. Upgrade Foster red zone pass TDs as likely they will not bring in a goaline back, with 2 WR targets and foster from the backfield.
Upgrade Deholmes Passing yards and TD passes.
Upgrade Steve Smith reverse carries and YAC - Johnson will draw coverage or field blocks.
Downgrade Steve Smith possessions less balls to go around and got to assume Johnson will atleast have 40-50 catches.
Overall, Panthers offense should improve which should translate into more overall opportunities to score.
Translated value
Upgrade Foster Yardage, due to Johnson being a "complete" WR according to NFL network. Upgrade Foster red zone pass TDs as likely they will not bring in a goaline back, with 2 WR targets and foster from the backfield.
Upgrade Deholmes Passing yards and TD passes.
Upgrade Steve Smith reverse carries and YAC - Johnson will draw coverage or field blocks.
Downgrade Steve Smith possessions less balls to go around and got to assume Johnson will atleast have 40-50 catches.
Overall, Panthers offense should improve which should translate into more overall opportunities to score.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I think Steve Smith's TD's go down
Gopher State
Footballguy
Keyshawn is going to be used in the red zone, and therefore you almost have to downgrade Smith a little.
This post has been edited by toxicbees: Today, 08:53 AM
very
This post has been edited by toxicbees: Today, 08:53 AM
very
he's been an iffy red zone target throughout his careerI think they just signed him for their run game that Fox loves so much. All the catches are gravyKeyshawn is going to be used in the red zone, and therefore you almost have to downgrade Smith a little.
This post has been edited by toxicbees: Today, 08:53 AM
very
