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Kffl Blog: Temper enthusiasm on Mark Ingram (1 Viewer)

ty247

Footballguy
heh, i did this same little exercise and arrived at the same conclusions. tho its not out of the realm for sproles to get like only 30 carries and pierre 60 and ivory mop up 20. tough to say, but i guess im just still a believer in pierre to get 100-120 and thus drive ingram down to around 200.
If I'm the saints, and I'm up on teams, I don't think I'm sending Ingram in there to take the full punishment though.. especially if I'm looking playoff bound and especially with all the injuries the Saints have dealt with at RB.. so like you I'm expecting Ingram, Sproles and Ivory to get their carries.The Saints also aren't going to need Ingram to carry their team.. just another thing for people to think about.
 

Doug B

Footballguy
'ty247 said:
The Saints also aren't going to need Ingram to carry their team.. just another thing for people to think about.
I think even the optimistic guys, though, are "only" expecting about 1200 yds rush/rcv and 10 TDs or so. No one's thinking he'll produce like LT2's prime or something.Personally, though: while I'm not expecting huge yardage from Ingram, I do think there's a middling chance that he becomes a TD freak as the go-to short back on a top offense. Not bold enough to call my shot here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 15 to 18 TD range.
 

heropretend

Footballguy
Ingram went 2.2 in a FPC. Ahead of (in order): Michael Turner, Forte, Fitzgerald, Sjax, Gore, Best, Vick, Rodgers, Hillis, Bradshaw

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
'ty247 said:
'cvnpoka said:
heh, i did this same little exercise and arrived at the same conclusions. tho its not out of the realm for sproles to get like only 30 carries and pierre 60 and ivory mop up 20. tough to say, but i guess im just still a believer in pierre to get 100-120 and thus drive ingram down to around 200.
If I'm the saints, and I'm up on teams, I don't think I'm sending Ingram in there to take the full punishment though.. especially if I'm looking playoff bound and especially with all the injuries the Saints have dealt with at RB.. so like you I'm expecting Ingram, Sproles and Ivory to get their carries.The Saints also aren't going to need Ingram to carry their team.. just another thing for people to think about.
History on Thomas and Ivory would dictate that at some point they will be unavailable to play. They are not exactly stalwart players.
 

Doug B

Footballguy
Ingram went 2.2 in a FPC. Ahead of (in order): Michael Turner, Forte, Fitzgerald, Sjax, Gore, Best, Vick, Rodgers, Hillis, Bradshaw
Quick aside:I've been seeing a lot of references to "FPC" and "FFPC" drafts. What do those acronyms mean? TIA
 

Doug B

Footballguy
History on Thomas and Ivory would dictate that at some point they will be unavailable to play. They are not exactly stalwart players.
:goodposting:Lots and lots of non-locals expecting Ivory to have some kind of presence this season. Almost certainly not going to happen--and if it does, it will be very late in the season.
 

scrumptrulescent

Footballguy
Ingram went 2.2 in a FPC. Ahead of (in order): Michael Turner, Forte, Fitzgerald, Sjax, Gore, Best, Vick, Rodgers, Hillis, Bradshaw
Yikes. I would for sure take Turner, Fitz, Vick Rodgers, and Hillis ahead of him. Not sure if I'd draft the others but 2.2 is 2 rich for my blood. I guess I won't be owning him.
 

TheFanatic

Footballguy
Ingram went 2.2 in a FPC. Ahead of (in order): Michael Turner, Forte, Fitzgerald, Sjax, Gore, Best, Vick, Rodgers, Hillis, Bradshaw
This is what I've been trying to explainLove to see the hype machine in full effectGuppies
And the more you rail against him, the more I'm happy to have the 1.1 in my rookie draft this year. Help me out here. I also have the 1.2, if I were to go WR there, which should I go with Julio or AJ?
 

aburt19

Footballguy
Ingram went 2.2 in a FPC. Ahead of (in order): Michael Turner, Forte, Fitzgerald, Sjax, Gore, Best, Vick, Rodgers, Hillis, Bradshaw
This is what I've been trying to explainLove to see the hype machine in full effectGuppies
I don't thing anyone is saying to take him in the second round. If he goes in the second round then he's being overdrafted. But if he goes anywhereclose to the ADP that different sites show, then he's a good value.
 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Ingram went 2.2 in a FPC. Ahead of (in order): Michael Turner, Forte, Fitzgerald, Sjax, Gore, Best, Vick, Rodgers, Hillis, Bradshaw
This is what I've been trying to explainLove to see the hype machine in full effectGuppies
And the more you rail against him, the more I'm happy to have the 1.1 in my rookie draft this year. Help me out here. I also have the 1.2, if I were to go WR there, which should I go with Julio or AJ?
Julio. Better situation in almost every aspect.
 

Andrew Garda

Moderator
History on Thomas and Ivory would dictate that at some point they will be unavailable to play. They are not exactly stalwart players.
:goodposting:Lots and lots of non-locals expecting Ivory to have some kind of presence this season. Almost certainly not going to happen--and if it does, it will be very late in the season.
Isn't Ivory already hurt?Nope - not already - just STILL. From Rotoworld:
Chris Ivory (Lisfranc surgery, sports hernia) has yet to participate in practice. Ivory still can't pass a physical. And considering the serious nature of his injuries, we're not expecting to see him anytime soon. Ivory is a candidate for the PUP list to open the season and he isn't draftable in fantasy. Aug 15, 9:37 AM
I like Ivory but I think he's going to be a real minor factor this year. Not to say that makes Ingram a lock - that 2.2 pick is a bit caraaaazy - but I don't think Ivory is the one to worry about this year.
 

saintfool

Dead sexy
History on Thomas and Ivory would dictate that at some point they will be unavailable to play. They are not exactly stalwart players.
:goodposting:Lots and lots of non-locals expecting Ivory to have some kind of presence this season. Almost certainly not going to happen--and if it does, it will be very late in the season.
honestly, i think Loomis and Payton are being very cagey here. they are figuring out what they have here with Ingram, Sproles, Joique and Ivory. if they have confidence in ivory's return and sproles place in the scheme then i believe there is a good chance they'll trade Pierre. ivory's return will be after week 6. they can give bell a long hard look bell. pierre just needs to prove he's healthy and productive. they don't want the distraction and pierre could have real value to another team struggling.
 

T with T

Footballguy
Disagree here

During Payton's five seasons running the Saints, he has never had a running back carry the football more than 244 times in a season - that's an average of 15.3 carries per game. Further complicating the situation, those 244 totes came five years ago from Deuce McAllister. Since then, their top-carry back has attempted 137 (2010), 172 ('09), 129 ('08) and 147 ('07).
Peyton never had a back that could carry 250-300.Deuce was that guy, but Payton's 1st year, he had the most hyped RB to come to the NFL in several decades.After year 1 Deuce got hurt, and the O went through Brees.The O will still go through Brees, but they now DO have someone who could carry the load 200-250+ IMO.While I understand Sproles is in town, but his abilities are not the same as Bush, his contract and hype is not the same.I don't see how Ingram doesn't get 200 carries.
well think about it numb, even at 200 carries at 4.5 a clip thats 900 yards.. throw in 8-10 tds and that still doesn't even make him a top 25 back.. Sproles will be catching all the passes so Ingram is WAY overvalued esp this year... Ingram will not be a top 20 back GUARANTEED. don't overpay for this guy in redraft leagues or you will be sorry.. Totally agree with poster.
 

T with T

Footballguy
One article makes you change your view on a talented running back in a high powered offense? Hmmm, not a very good decision.Ingram should produce fine, they didnt trade up to get him to give him 150 touches.
I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first team :shrug:Especially when the 'bell cow' is a rookie, who didn't have the benefit of OTA's off season conditioning. If you were payton why would you want to pound him 25-30 times a game when you could rather easily give the rookie 15 carries a game and spell him with any one of three productive veterans with various skillsets while he develops at the position. I don't care how much we want things to be a certain way, looking at how a coach has used his players is a pretty good indication of how he will continue to do so.
25-30 carries a game would be 400-480 on the year.I don't think any RB gets that this year, or ever again (Larry Johnson holds the record with 416)I am not even sure he gets the 15/game you are suggesting.That would lead to 240 carries.I see him at around 216 or so 13.5/game.
I think we'll all look back on this thread and laugh at how silly our under-estimates of his carries were. Payton is going to lean on him. A LOT. Trust me. This isn't going to be Larry Johnson or Eddie George type of work. But, 15-carries-per-game minimum, with some games deep in the 20s. Buy now while the price for him is at its lowest.
Initially I thought the same thing, but 15/game is at 240 (AP in his rookie season had 244), the numbers you are throwing out seem to indicate you think he could near 300 for a rookie, with limited training camp, with a rookie who will play more than 12 games for the 1st time in his career, with a rookie who I presume NO will need come week 18, 19 maybe week 20 of the NFL season?I just think it would not be smart, or in fact needed.When Peterson got his 244 as a rookie, TJax was the QB, and Bobby Wade was the leading WR on that team.They NEEDED AP to run the ball.The Saints have one of the best QB's in the league, good WR's, an athletic TE with promise, and other RB's who can contribute.I just don't think they will feel the need to give this guy 250+ carries as a rookie.
Ingram will be lucky to see over 200 carries, everyone knows this, it seems every year people like to overhype rookie rbs and say how many carries they will get, please people Ingram isn't gonna get 350 carries, wake up esp with Thomas, sproles, ivory on board.. Ingram will not even be top 15 rb, mark my words....
 

T with T

Footballguy
The Saints gave up quite a bit to move up in the draft to select Ingram. I don't think they would have done that for a RBBC back...especially with them having so many needs on defense. He may not play many 3rd downs with Sproles there (I do think there will be 3rd downs with both Ingram and Sproles), but he is almost a lock to be the goal line RB. One more things that I don't recall seeing is that the Saints need a RB to put teams away late in games so they don't have to pass as much and thus risk a clock-stopping incompletion. I think 250 carries is his floor to be honest.
The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC, :blackdot: plus they have a packed stable with Thomas, ivory, bell, sproles... get with it guys quit drinking the ingram :banned:
 

Jason Wood

Zoo York
:lmao:

I love it. LHUCKS besmirches the validity of ADP data from THOUSANDS of drafts in defense of his anecdotal experiences in a few outlier drafts where "experts" are known for trying to look smart by making out of consensus moves.

Value. Add.

:thumbup:

 

T with T

Footballguy
The Rams had a pass-happy offense. How'd that work out for Marshall Faulk?
Marshall faulk was one of the best receiving backs in the league, so that is one example... I don't think that is validated... You are using a guy who is a top 10 rb ever and the best wr back ever and even had 1000 yards receiving once before, so that really is a dumb comparison.
 

Doug B

Footballguy
Ingram will be lucky to see over 200 carries, everyone knows this, it seems every year people like to overhype rookie rbs and say how many carries they will get, please people Ingram isn't gonna get 350 carries, wake up esp with Thomas, sproles, ivory on board.. Ingram will not even be top 15 rb, mark my words....
I don't believe that Ingram needs to approach 300 carries to be a top-15 FF RB, to use your cut-off. He could get there with a steady diet of red-zone carries.
 

Andrew Garda

Moderator
The Saints gave up quite a bit to move up in the draft to select Ingram. I don't think they would have done that for a RBBC back...especially with them having so many needs on defense. He may not play many 3rd downs with Sproles there (I do think there will be 3rd downs with both Ingram and Sproles), but he is almost a lock to be the goal line RB. One more things that I don't recall seeing is that the Saints need a RB to put teams away late in games so they don't have to pass as much and thus risk a clock-stopping incompletion. I think 250 carries is his floor to be honest.
The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC, :blackdot: plus they have a packed stable with Thomas, ivory, bell, sproles... get with it guys quit drinking the ingram :banned:
I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.
 

Short Corner

Footballguy
:lmao:I love it. LHUCKS besmirches the validity of ADP data from THOUSANDS of drafts in defense of his anecdotal experiences in a few outlier drafts where "experts" are known for trying to look smart by making out of consensus moves.Value. Add. :thumbup:
Where exactly do you consider him a value?
 

drater

Footballguy
History on Thomas and Ivory would dictate that at some point they will be unavailable to play. They are not exactly stalwart players.
:goodposting:Lots and lots of non-locals expecting Ivory to have some kind of presence this season. Almost certainly not going to happen--and if it does, it will be very late in the season.
honestly, i think Loomis and Payton are being very cagey here. they are figuring out what they have here with Ingram, Sproles, Joique and Ivory. if they have confidence in ivory's return and sproles place in the scheme then i believe there is a good chance they'll trade Pierre. ivory's return will be after week 6. they can give bell a long hard look bell. pierre just needs to prove he's healthy and productive. they don't want the distraction and pierre could have real value to another team struggling.
Pierre to Detroit was high on my offseason wishlist, as both a Lions and Pierre fan. He'd complement Best/Harrison nicely.
 

death of the cool

Footballguy
For me it is all about his value....all it takes is one GM to draft him in the 2nd round.

I think that once the backs that are sure bets to get significant carries go, and it is time to take some chances...Ingram is my first choice. That probably happens in the late 3rd to 4th, so there is a good chance someone will bite before then.

 

tenaka

Footballguy
Ingram will be lucky to see over 200 carries, everyone knows this, it seems every year people like to overhype rookie rbs and say how many carries they will get, please people Ingram isn't gonna get 350 carries, wake up esp with Thomas, sproles, ivory on board.. Ingram will not even be top 15 rb, mark my words....
I don't believe that Ingram needs to approach 300 carries to be a top-15 FF RB, to use your cut-off. He could get there with a steady diet of red-zone carries.
Yea, while people hype rookies as players that are going to get 350 carries they do the same with non-rookie rbs. When one guy is the man they are going to get "30 carries a game" and any time there is anyone else in town its doom and gloom that one guy will "only" get 2/3 of the touches. If you look at team stats, typically only 1 or 2 rbs a season get 75% of the rushing attempts. If that.
 

jdoggydogg

Footballguy
The Saints gave up quite a bit to move up in the draft to select Ingram. I don't think they would have done that for a RBBC back...especially with them having so many needs on defense. He may not play many 3rd downs with Sproles there (I do think there will be 3rd downs with both Ingram and Sproles), but he is almost a lock to be the goal line RB. One more things that I don't recall seeing is that the Saints need a RB to put teams away late in games so they don't have to pass as much and thus risk a clock-stopping incompletion. I think 250 carries is his floor to be honest.
The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC, :blackdot: plus they have a packed stable with Thomas, ivory, bell, sproles... get with it guys quit drinking the ingram :banned:
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.This analogy assumes that all these factors are the same, and they couldn't be more different. Buffalo is a terrible team. Awful.
 

jdoggydogg

Footballguy
The Rams had a pass-happy offense. How'd that work out for Marshall Faulk?
Marshall faulk was one of the best receiving backs in the league, so that is one example... I don't think that is validated... You are using a guy who is a top 10 rb ever and the best wr back ever and even had 1000 yards receiving once before, so that really is a dumb comparison.
It's not dumb at all. I didn't say that Ingram is as talented as Faulk. I'm saying that Rams team will always be remembered as one of the best passing teams in the modern era. But Faulk was able to find success both as a runner and a receiver.
 

jdoggydogg

Footballguy
Look, we all know that the Saints have one of the top five best passing offenses in the league. I think it'd be ridiculous for anyone to assume that Peyton's going to abandon the passing game and grind out a powerhouse running game every week.

However...

Peyton's smart. He knows that a successful NFL team usually has a potent running game. Peyton doesn't want to throw the ball 50 times a game. While we all know that the Saints' offense will always flow through Drew Brees, it seems obvious to me that Peyton would rather have a more balanced attack. To me, a Saints team that can throw at will AND that can get plenty of yards on the ground is a combination that will cause trouble for every team they play.

 

Faust

MVP
Three and out: Ingram, Thomas could share work

Excerpt:

Saints to use RB committee?: Rookie running backs can often times make a nice impact in fantasy land, so it’s no surprise that Mark Ingram’s name has been talked about in a prominent fashion. But is he guaranteed to see a featured role in the Saints offense? Maybe not. The New Orleans Times-Picayune

is reporting that Ingram and Pierre Thomas have shared first-team reps during training camp. With Darren Sproles filling Reggie Bush’s old role in the offense, Ingram or Thomas will be the two main ball carriers for coach Sean Payton. So while Ingram has more upside and looks like the team’s goal-line back, he’s not going to see a true featured role. That’s something to keep in mind before you draft him as more than a low-end No. 2 back or flex starter.
 

-jb-

Footballguy
It's amazing how the exact same article gets interpreted in completely different ways. Just like the Mathews/Tolbert thread.

 

-jb-

Footballguy
It's amazing how the exact same article gets interpreted in completely different ways. Just like the Mathews/Tolbert thread.
What do you mean?
The Times Picayune article above is quoted in here, and in the Ingram Spotlight. Some are interpreting it as a sign the Ingram will score more points, while others are taking it at face value. Just like in the Mathews Spotlight.
 

T with T

Footballguy
The Saints gave up quite a bit to move up in the draft to select Ingram. I don't think they would have done that for a RBBC back...especially with them having so many needs on defense. He may not play many 3rd downs with Sproles there (I do think there will be 3rd downs with both Ingram and Sproles), but he is almost a lock to be the goal line RB. One more things that I don't recall seeing is that the Saints need a RB to put teams away late in games so they don't have to pass as much and thus risk a clock-stopping incompletion. I think 250 carries is his floor to be honest.
The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC, :blackdot: plus they have a packed stable with Thomas, ivory, bell, sproles... get with it guys quit drinking the ingram :banned:
I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.
Undersized??? hes 5-11 196 and he was drafted 9th overall why would we think that ??? I wonder why ... I can name ten guysthat were smaller then him and were good backs.. dumb quote...
 

FantasyTrader

Footballguy
The Saints gave up quite a bit to move up in the draft to select Ingram. I don't think they would have done that for a RBBC back...especially with them having so many needs on defense. He may not play many 3rd downs with Sproles there (I do think there will be 3rd downs with both Ingram and Sproles), but he is almost a lock to be the goal line RB. One more things that I don't recall seeing is that the Saints need a RB to put teams away late in games so they don't have to pass as much and thus risk a clock-stopping incompletion. I think 250 carries is his floor to be honest.
The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC, :blackdot: plus they have a packed stable with Thomas, ivory, bell, sproles... get with it guys quit drinking the ingram :banned:
I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.
Undersized??? hes 5-11 196 and he was drafted 9th overall why would we think that ??? I wonder why ... I can name ten guysthat were smaller then him and were good backs.. dumb quote...
No, he's undersized. Among the 14 RB's last year to get a minimum of 230 carries only Chris Johnson weighs less at 191 (Jamaal Charles is close at 5'11" - 199). In fact, the average back among the top 14 heaviest workloads last year outweighs Spiller by almost 30 lbs. Now what that does to Spiller's long-term outlook can be debated, but he's undersized. That's a fact.
 

Andrew Garda

Moderator
The Saints gave up quite a bit to move up in the draft to select Ingram. I don't think they would have done that for a RBBC back...especially with them having so many needs on defense. He may not play many 3rd downs with Sproles there (I do think there will be 3rd downs with both Ingram and Sproles), but he is almost a lock to be the goal line RB. One more things that I don't recall seeing is that the Saints need a RB to put teams away late in games so they don't have to pass as much and thus risk a clock-stopping incompletion. I think 250 carries is his floor to be honest.
The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC, :blackdot: plus they have a packed stable with Thomas, ivory, bell, sproles... get with it guys quit drinking the ingram :banned:
I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.
Undersized??? hes 5-11 196 and he was drafted 9th overall why would we think that ??? I wonder why ... I can name ten guysthat were smaller then him and were good backs.. dumb quote...
No, he's undersized. Among the 14 RB's last year to get a minimum of 230 carries only Chris Johnson weighs less at 191 (Jamaal Charles is close at 5'11" - 199). In fact, the average back among the top 14 heaviest workloads last year outweighs Spiller by almost 30 lbs. Now what that does to Spiller's long-term outlook can be debated, but he's undersized. That's a fact.
I'd love to hear the ten backs. And by good, you must mean lead backs since that's what you were talking about. :popcorn:
 

jdoggydogg

Footballguy
The Saints gave up quite a bit to move up in the draft to select Ingram. I don't think they would have done that for a RBBC back...especially with them having so many needs on defense. He may not play many 3rd downs with Sproles there (I do think there will be 3rd downs with both Ingram and Sproles), but he is almost a lock to be the goal line RB. One more things that I don't recall seeing is that the Saints need a RB to put teams away late in games so they don't have to pass as much and thus risk a clock-stopping incompletion. I think 250 carries is his floor to be honest.
The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC, :blackdot: plus they have a packed stable with Thomas, ivory, bell, sproles... get with it guys quit drinking the ingram :banned:
I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.
Undersized??? hes 5-11 196 and he was drafted 9th overall why would we think that ??? I wonder why ... I can name ten guysthat were smaller then him and were good backs.. dumb quote...
No, he's undersized. Among the 14 RB's last year to get a minimum of 230 carries only Chris Johnson weighs less at 191 (Jamaal Charles is close at 5'11" - 199). In fact, the average back among the top 14 heaviest workloads last year outweighs Spiller by almost 30 lbs. Now what that does to Spiller's long-term outlook can be debated, but he's undersized. That's a fact.
FYI, ESPN lists him at 5' 11", 193 lbs. He sure looks small on the field.
 

tenaka

Footballguy
Top 14 in carries from 2010. A couple shorties but they weigh a lot more than Spiller which means they are even that much stronger to have more muscle packed into that short frame.

1 Michael Turner ATL Height: 5-10   Weight: 247

2 Steven Jackson STL Height: 6-2   Weight: 236

3 Arian Foster HOU Height: 6-1   Weight: 227

4 Rashard Mendenhall PIT Height: 5-10   Weight: 225

5 Cedric Benson CIN Height: 5-11   Weight: 227

6 Chris Johnson TEN Height: 5-11   Weight: 191 

7 Ray Rice BAL Height: 5-8   Weight: 212

8 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC Height: 5-7   Weight: 208

9 Adrian Peterson MIN Height: 6-1   Weight: 217 

10 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG Height: 5-10   Weight: 214

11 Peyton Hillis CLE Height: 6-2   Weight: 250

12 Thomas Jones KC Height: 5-10   Weight: 212

13 Matt Forte CHI Height: 6-2   Weight: 218

14 Jamaal Charles KC Height: 5-11   Weight: 199 

 
Three and out: Ingram, Thomas could share work

Excerpt:

Saints to use RB committee?: Rookie running backs can often times make a nice impact in fantasy land, so it's no surprise that Mark Ingram's name has been talked about in a prominent fashion. But is he guaranteed to see a featured role in the Saints offense? Maybe not. The New Orleans Times-Picayune

is reporting that Ingram and Pierre Thomas have shared first-team reps during training camp. With Darren Sproles filling Reggie Bush's old role in the offense, Ingram or Thomas will be the two main ball carriers for coach Sean Payton. So while Ingram has more upside and looks like the team's goal-line back, he's not going to see a true featured role. That's something to keep in mind before you draft him as more than a low-end No. 2 back or flex starter.
from Times Pic articleRunning back: This is the marquee competition of camp. Rookie Mark Ingram and veteran Pierre Thomas have alternated reps with the first team throughout camp, and both have had their moments. Darren Sproles will man Reggie Bush's old role as the satellite back and steal a few carries to keep defenses honest, but Ingram or Thomas will be the primary ball carrier. The running back spot is similar to wide receiver in Payton's offense. Regardless of who starts, the final number of reps will likely be similar between the two.

 

De Novo

Footballguy
One article makes you change your view on a talented running back in a high powered offense? Hmmm, not a very good decision.Ingram should produce fine, they didnt trade up to get him to give him 150 touches.
I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first team :shrug:Especially when the 'bell cow' is a rookie, who didn't have the benefit of OTA's off season conditioning. If you were payton why would you want to pound him 25-30 times a game when you could rather easily give the rookie 15 carries a game and spell him with any one of three productive veterans with various skillsets while he develops at the position. I don't care how much we want things to be a certain way, looking at how a coach has used his players is a pretty good indication of how he will continue to do so.
25-30 carries a game would be 400-480 on the year.I don't think any RB gets that this year, or ever again (Larry Johnson holds the record with 416)I am not even sure he gets the 15/game you are suggesting.That would lead to 240 carries.I see him at around 216 or so 13.5/game.
I think we'll all look back on this thread and laugh at how silly our under-estimates of his carries were. Payton is going to lean on him. A LOT. Trust me. This isn't going to be Larry Johnson or Eddie George type of work. But, 15-carries-per-game minimum, with some games deep in the 20s. Buy now while the price for him is at its lowest.
Initially I thought the same thing, but 15/game is at 240 (AP in his rookie season had 244), the numbers you are throwing out seem to indicate you think he could near 300 for a rookie, with limited training camp, with a rookie who will play more than 12 games for the 1st time in his career, with a rookie who I presume NO will need come week 18, 19 maybe week 20 of the NFL season?I just think it would not be smart, or in fact needed.When Peterson got his 244 as a rookie, TJax was the QB, and Bobby Wade was the leading WR on that team.They NEEDED AP to run the ball.The Saints have one of the best QB's in the league, good WR's, an athletic TE with promise, and other RB's who can contribute.I just don't think they will feel the need to give this guy 250+ carries as a rookie.
Ingram will be lucky to see over 200 carries, everyone knows this, it seems every year people like to overhype rookie rbs and say how many carries they will get, please people Ingram isn't gonna get 350 carries, wake up esp with Thomas, sproles, ivory on board.. Ingram will not even be top 15 rb, mark my words....
I almost guarantee he gets over 200 carries. 1st down, 2nd down, short yardage, goal line, Ingram is the guy on those situations more often than not.
 

FantasyTrader

Footballguy
Regardless of who starts, the final number of reps will likely be similar between the two.
Not saying this won't end up being the case, but that's placing a lot of faith in Pierre Thomas, who's been active for 73.4% of the possible 64 regular season games in his career.
 

LawFitz

Footballguy
Anyone have an opinion or insight regarding whispers that Pierre's ankle injury from last season still isn't totally right? That was a weird injury. It lasted a lot longer than anyone predicted. And I'm sure I read this "whisper" somewhere but can't seem to find any updates or corroboration now.

 

comfortably numb

Footballguy
One article makes you change your view on a talented running back in a high powered offense? Hmmm, not a very good decision.

Ingram should produce fine, they didnt trade up to get him to give him 150 touches.
I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first team :shrug: Especially when the 'bell cow' is a rookie, who didn't have the benefit of OTA's off season conditioning. If you were payton why would you want to pound him 25-30 times a game when you could rather easily give the rookie 15 carries a game and spell him with any one of three productive veterans with various skillsets while he develops at the position. I don't care how much we want things to be a certain way, looking at how a coach has used his players is a pretty good indication of how he will continue to do so.
25-30 carries a game would be 400-480 on the year.I don't think any RB gets that this year, or ever again (Larry Johnson holds the record with 416)

I am not even sure he gets the 15/game you are suggesting.

That would lead to 240 carries.

I see him at around 216 or so 13.5/game.
I think we'll all look back on this thread and laugh at how silly our under-estimates of his carries were. Payton is going to lean on him. A LOT. Trust me. This isn't going to be Larry Johnson or Eddie George type of work. But, 15-carries-per-game minimum, with some games deep in the 20s. Buy now while the price for him is at its lowest.
Initially I thought the same thing, but 15/game is at 240 (AP in his rookie season had 244), the numbers you are throwing out seem to indicate you think he could near 300 for a rookie, with limited training camp, with a rookie who will play more than 12 games for the 1st time in his career, with a rookie who I presume NO will need come week 18, 19 maybe week 20 of the NFL season?I just think it would not be smart, or in fact needed.

When Peterson got his 244 as a rookie, TJax was the QB, and Bobby Wade was the leading WR on that team.

They NEEDED AP to run the ball.

The Saints have one of the best QB's in the league, good WR's, an athletic TE with promise, and other RB's who can contribute.

I just don't think they will feel the need to give this guy 250+ carries as a rookie.
Ingram will be lucky to see over 200 carries, everyone knows this, it seems every year people like to overhype rookie rbs and say how many carries they will get, please people Ingram isn't gonna get 350 carries, wake up esp with Thomas, sproles, ivory on board.. Ingram will not even be top 15 rb, mark my words....
Who and how does "everyone" know this?I am in the camp that think he will get just over 200.

200-220 range

Overhyped is one thing, but to think he will be "lucky" to see 200 carries is short sighted IMO

Last year rookies

Mathews had 157 and missed about 4 games

Blount had 201 and missed 3-4 games

Best had 174 (58 REC)

Spiller had 74 and missed 2-3 games

Gerhart had freaking 81 carries, and he is a FB

2009

Moreno had 247

Wells had 176 and missed a game

Mccoy had 155 (40 REC)

DBrown had 78 and missed about 5 games

SGReene had 109 and missed about 4-5 games

2008

Forte had 314 (64 REC)

Slaton had 268 (50 REC)

CJohnson had 251 (43 REC)

KSmith had 239 (39 REC)

JStew had 183

Hightower had 143

DMac had 113 and missed about 4 games

2007

ADP had 238

Lynch had 280

This list seems clear to me, if a rookie RB can play 16 games, and came into camp as a potential starter, he will be see a good amount of work.

 

Doug B

Footballguy
'LawFitz said:
Anyone have an opinion or insight regarding whispers that Pierre's ankle injury from last season still isn't totally right? That was a weird injury. It lasted a lot longer than anyone predicted. And I'm sure I read this "whisper" somewhere but can't seem to find any updates or corroboration now.
I posted that in the Shark Pool last week, with the caveat that it was message-board scuttlebutt with no link. It was never reported in any media.It was posted on the saintsreport.com message board by some fans that attended the first week of training-camp practices. Thomas was being held out of a lot of drills, ostensibly because his ankle still wasn't right.
 

Doug B

Footballguy
'Faust said:
Three and out: Ingram, Thomas could share work

...

The New Orleans Times-Picayune is reporting that Ingram and Pierre Thomas have shared first-team reps during training camp.
The FFB blogosphere is whiffing on this one pretty badly. See posts #165-172 in Ingram's Spotlight thread.I'll reiterate some of what I wrote in that thread:

A lot of people will read that article as "the final number of rushing attempts will likely be similar ...", just like the Rotoworld headline writer did. They'll ignore that Ingram's role will likely allow him to smoke Thomas in fantasy points over the course of the season. All Jeff Duncan wrote is that Ingram and Thomas are sharing first-team reps in camp right now. That's no surprise, as Thomas' reps in the first week of camp were limited (no link) and now he needs the work.

Some things in Ingram's favor:

1) Ingram has the Saints' goal-line role right now. He also has the Saints' red-zone RB role right now -- IOW, they're not just going to wave Ingram in when the ball's inside the 3.

2) The Saints traded their best goal-line RB of the Payton era to the Dolphins. Yep, Reggie Bush actually was deadly and efficient inside the 5. Someone is getting some extra work to fill the gap, and it's going to be mostly Ingram.

3) The Saints RBs, combined, scored 28 rush/rcv TDs in 2008, and 26 in 2009. When the RB corps is not a MASH unit and Sean Payton can allocate the rush/pass percentages the way he prefers, there's plenty of opportunity for a RB to rack up TDs.

4) Pierre Thomas himself scored 12 TDs in 2008 (in 160 touches!) despite playing part time and sharing a backfield with two goal-line backs par excellence in Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush.

 
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cvnpoka

Footballguy
'LawFitz said:
Anyone have an opinion or insight regarding whispers that Pierre's ankle injury from last season still isn't totally right? That was a weird injury. It lasted a lot longer than anyone predicted. And I'm sure I read this "whisper" somewhere but can't seem to find any updates or corroboration now.
I posted that in the Shark Pool last week, with the caveat that it was message-board scuttlebutt with no link. It was never reported in any media.It was posted on the saintsreport.com message board by some fans that attended the first week of training-camp practices. Thomas was being held out of a lot of drills, ostensibly because his ankle still wasn't right.
im not gonna dig it up but a few weeks ago pierre himself admitted he "wasnt 100%." ofc, this was in response to glowing praise from his teammates and media who said he looked great on the practice field. pierre said something like, i can be better, i know myself and im not quite there.
 

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