If I'm the saints, and I'm up on teams, I don't think I'm sending Ingram in there to take the full punishment though.. especially if I'm looking playoff bound and especially with all the injuries the Saints have dealt with at RB.. so like you I'm expecting Ingram, Sproles and Ivory to get their carries.The Saints also aren't going to need Ingram to carry their team.. just another thing for people to think about.
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Kffl Blog: Temper enthusiasm on Mark Ingram (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Hipple Long Ware & Peete
- Start date
Doug B
Footballguy
I think even the optimistic guys, though, are "only" expecting about 1200 yds rush/rcv and 10 TDs or so. No one's thinking he'll produce like LT2's prime or something.Personally, though: while I'm not expecting huge yardage from Ingram, I do think there's a middling chance that he becomes a TD freak as the go-to short back on a top offense. Not bold enough to call my shot here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 15 to 18 TD range.'ty247 said:
heropretend
Footballguy
Ingram went 2.2 in a FPC. Ahead of (in order): Michael Turner, Forte, Fitzgerald, Sjax, Gore, Best, Vick, Rodgers, Hillis, Bradshaw
Sabertooth
Footballguy
History on Thomas and Ivory would dictate that at some point they will be unavailable to play. They are not exactly stalwart players.'ty247 said:
Doug B
Footballguy
Quick aside:I've been seeing a lot of references to "FPC" and "FFPC" drafts. What do those acronyms mean? TIA
Doug B
Footballguy
Lots and lots of non-locals expecting Ivory to have some kind of presence this season. Almost certainly not going to happen--and if it does, it will be very late in the season.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
This is what I've been trying to explainLove to see the hype machine in full effectGuppies
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Yikes. I would for sure take Turner, Fitz, Vick Rodgers, and Hillis ahead of him. Not sure if I'd draft the others but 2.2 is 2 rich for my blood. I guess I won't be owning him.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
And the more you rail against him, the more I'm happy to have the 1.1 in my rookie draft this year. Help me out here. I also have the 1.2, if I were to go WR there, which should I go with Julio or AJ?
I don't thing anyone is saying to take him in the second round. If he goes in the second round then he's being overdrafted. But if he goes anywhereclose to the ADP that different sites show, then he's a good value.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Julio. Better situation in almost every aspect.
Andrew Garda
Moderator
Isn't Ivory already hurt?Nope - not already - just STILL. From Rotoworld:
I like Ivory but I think he's going to be a real minor factor this year. Not to say that makes Ingram a lock - that 2.2 pick is a bit caraaaazy - but I don't think Ivory is the one to worry about this year.
saintfool
Dead sexy
honestly, i think Loomis and Payton are being very cagey here. they are figuring out what they have here with Ingram, Sproles, Joique and Ivory. if they have confidence in ivory's return and sproles place in the scheme then i believe there is a good chance they'll trade Pierre. ivory's return will be after week 6. they can give bell a long hard look bell. pierre just needs to prove he's healthy and productive. they don't want the distraction and pierre could have real value to another team struggling.
T with T
Footballguy
well think about it numb, even at 200 carries at 4.5 a clip thats 900 yards.. throw in 8-10 tds and that still doesn't even make him a top 25 back.. Sproles will be catching all the passes so Ingram is WAY overvalued esp this year... Ingram will not be a top 20 back GUARANTEED. don't overpay for this guy in redraft leagues or you will be sorry.. Totally agree with poster.
T with T
Footballguy
Ingram will be lucky to see over 200 carries, everyone knows this, it seems every year people like to overhype rookie rbs and say how many carries they will get, please people Ingram isn't gonna get 350 carries, wake up esp with Thomas, sproles, ivory on board.. Ingram will not even be top 15 rb, mark my words....Initially I thought the same thing, but 15/game is at 240 (AP in his rookie season had 244), the numbers you are throwing out seem to indicate you think he could near 300 for a rookie, with limited training camp, with a rookie who will play more than 12 games for the 1st time in his career, with a rookie who I presume NO will need come week 18, 19 maybe week 20 of the NFL season?I just think it would not be smart, or in fact needed.When Peterson got his 244 as a rookie, TJax was the QB, and Bobby Wade was the leading WR on that team.They NEEDED AP to run the ball.The Saints have one of the best QB's in the league, good WR's, an athletic TE with promise, and other RB's who can contribute.I just don't think they will feel the need to give this guy 250+ carries as a rookie.I think we'll all look back on this thread and laugh at how silly our under-estimates of his carries were. Payton is going to lean on him. A LOT. Trust me. This isn't going to be Larry Johnson or Eddie George type of work. But, 15-carries-per-game minimum, with some games deep in the 20s. Buy now while the price for him is at its lowest.25-30 carries a game would be 400-480 on the year.I don't think any RB gets that this year, or ever again (Larry Johnson holds the record with 416)I am not even sure he gets the 15/game you are suggesting.That would lead to 240 carries.I see him at around 216 or so 13.5/game.I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first teamEspecially when the 'bell cow' is a rookie, who didn't have the benefit of OTA's off season conditioning. If you were payton why would you want to pound him 25-30 times a game when you could rather easily give the rookie 15 carries a game and spell him with any one of three productive veterans with various skillsets while he develops at the position. I don't care how much we want things to be a certain way, looking at how a coach has used his players is a pretty good indication of how he will continue to do so.
T with T
Footballguy
The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC,
plus they have a packed stable with Thomas, ivory, bell, sproles... get with it guys quit drinking the ingram 
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I love it. LHUCKS besmirches the validity of ADP data from THOUSANDS of drafts in defense of his anecdotal experiences in a few outlier drafts where "experts" are known for trying to look smart by making out of consensus moves.
Value. Add.
T with T
Footballguy
Marshall faulk was one of the best receiving backs in the league, so that is one example... I don't think that is validated... You are using a guy who is a top 10 rb ever and the best wr back ever and even had 1000 yards receiving once before, so that really is a dumb comparison.
Doug B
Footballguy
I don't believe that Ingram needs to approach 300 carries to be a top-15 FF RB, to use your cut-off. He could get there with a steady diet of red-zone carries.
Andrew Garda
Moderator
I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC,
Short Corner
Footballguy
Where exactly do you consider him a value?
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
In some other thread I need to remember to expand on my theory that most people would draft better with no exposure to "ADP" lists.
Pierre to Detroit was high on my offseason wishlist, as both a Lions and Pierre fan. He'd complement Best/Harrison nicely.honestly, i think Loomis and Payton are being very cagey here. they are figuring out what they have here with Ingram, Sproles, Joique and Ivory. if they have confidence in ivory's return and sproles place in the scheme then i believe there is a good chance they'll trade Pierre. ivory's return will be after week 6. they can give bell a long hard look bell. pierre just needs to prove he's healthy and productive. they don't want the distraction and pierre could have real value to another team struggling.
death of the cool
Footballguy
For me it is all about his value....all it takes is one GM to draft him in the 2nd round.
I think that once the backs that are sure bets to get significant carries go, and it is time to take some chances...Ingram is my first choice. That probably happens in the late 3rd to 4th, so there is a good chance someone will bite before then.
I think that once the backs that are sure bets to get significant carries go, and it is time to take some chances...Ingram is my first choice. That probably happens in the late 3rd to 4th, so there is a good chance someone will bite before then.
Yea, while people hype rookies as players that are going to get 350 carries they do the same with non-rookie rbs. When one guy is the man they are going to get "30 carries a game" and any time there is anyone else in town its doom and gloom that one guy will "only" get 2/3 of the touches. If you look at team stats, typically only 1 or 2 rbs a season get 75% of the rushing attempts. If that.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.This analogy assumes that all these factors are the same, and they couldn't be more different. Buffalo is a terrible team. Awful.The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC,
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
It's not dumb at all. I didn't say that Ingram is as talented as Faulk. I'm saying that Rams team will always be remembered as one of the best passing teams in the modern era. But Faulk was able to find success both as a runner and a receiver.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Look, we all know that the Saints have one of the top five best passing offenses in the league. I think it'd be ridiculous for anyone to assume that Peyton's going to abandon the passing game and grind out a powerhouse running game every week.
However...
Peyton's smart. He knows that a successful NFL team usually has a potent running game. Peyton doesn't want to throw the ball 50 times a game. While we all know that the Saints' offense will always flow through Drew Brees, it seems obvious to me that Peyton would rather have a more balanced attack. To me, a Saints team that can throw at will AND that can get plenty of yards on the ground is a combination that will cause trouble for every team they play.
However...
Peyton's smart. He knows that a successful NFL team usually has a potent running game. Peyton doesn't want to throw the ball 50 times a game. While we all know that the Saints' offense will always flow through Drew Brees, it seems obvious to me that Peyton would rather have a more balanced attack. To me, a Saints team that can throw at will AND that can get plenty of yards on the ground is a combination that will cause trouble for every team they play.
Faust
MVP
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
Like I said....overhyped and over valued.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
What do you mean?
-jb-
Footballguy
The Times Picayune article above is quoted in here, and in the Ingram Spotlight. Some are interpreting it as a sign the Ingram will score more points, while others are taking it at face value. Just like in the Mathews Spotlight.
T with T
Footballguy
Undersized??? hes 5-11 196 and he was drafted 9th overall why would we think that ??? I wonder why ... I can name ten guysthat were smaller then him and were good backs.. dumb quote...I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC,
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
No, he's undersized. Among the 14 RB's last year to get a minimum of 230 carries only Chris Johnson weighs less at 191 (Jamaal Charles is close at 5'11" - 199). In fact, the average back among the top 14 heaviest workloads last year outweighs Spiller by almost 30 lbs. Now what that does to Spiller's long-term outlook can be debated, but he's undersized. That's a fact.Undersized??? hes 5-11 196 and he was drafted 9th overall why would we think that ??? I wonder why ... I can name ten guysthat were smaller then him and were good backs.. dumb quote...I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC,
Andrew Garda
Moderator
I'd love to hear the ten backs. And by good, you must mean lead backs since that's what you were talking about.No, he's undersized. Among the 14 RB's last year to get a minimum of 230 carries only Chris Johnson weighs less at 191 (Jamaal Charles is close at 5'11" - 199). In fact, the average back among the top 14 heaviest workloads last year outweighs Spiller by almost 30 lbs. Now what that does to Spiller's long-term outlook can be debated, but he's undersized. That's a fact.Undersized??? hes 5-11 196 and he was drafted 9th overall why would we think that ??? I wonder why ... I can name ten guysthat were smaller then him and were good backs.. dumb quote...I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC,
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
FYI, ESPN lists him at 5' 11", 193 lbs. He sure looks small on the field.No, he's undersized. Among the 14 RB's last year to get a minimum of 230 carries only Chris Johnson weighs less at 191 (Jamaal Charles is close at 5'11" - 199). In fact, the average back among the top 14 heaviest workloads last year outweighs Spiller by almost 30 lbs. Now what that does to Spiller's long-term outlook can be debated, but he's undersized. That's a fact.Undersized??? hes 5-11 196 and he was drafted 9th overall why would we think that ??? I wonder why ... I can name ten guysthat were smaller then him and were good backs.. dumb quote...I don't know WHY you thought Spiller, an undersized, overdrafted scat back was getting a lot of carries with Jackson there.The Bills took SPiller 9th overall guy, and I thought he would get a lot of carries, how did that work out?????? who cares fi they gave up a lot to get him borborlo... PAYTON uses RBBC,
Top 14 in carries from 2010. A couple shorties but they weigh a lot more than Spiller which means they are even that much stronger to have more muscle packed into that short frame.
1 Michael Turner ATL Height: 5-10 Weight: 247
2 Steven Jackson STL Height: 6-2 Weight: 236
3 Arian Foster HOU Height: 6-1 Weight: 227
4 Rashard Mendenhall PIT Height: 5-10 Weight: 225
5 Cedric Benson CIN Height: 5-11 Weight: 227
6 Chris Johnson TEN Height: 5-11 Weight: 191
7 Ray Rice BAL Height: 5-8 Weight: 212
8 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC Height: 5-7 Weight: 208
9 Adrian Peterson MIN Height: 6-1 Weight: 217
10 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG Height: 5-10 Weight: 214
11 Peyton Hillis CLE Height: 6-2 Weight: 250
12 Thomas Jones KC Height: 5-10 Weight: 212
13 Matt Forte CHI Height: 6-2 Weight: 218
14 Jamaal Charles KC Height: 5-11 Weight: 199
1 Michael Turner ATL Height: 5-10 Weight: 247
2 Steven Jackson STL Height: 6-2 Weight: 236
3 Arian Foster HOU Height: 6-1 Weight: 227
4 Rashard Mendenhall PIT Height: 5-10 Weight: 225
5 Cedric Benson CIN Height: 5-11 Weight: 227
6 Chris Johnson TEN Height: 5-11 Weight: 191
7 Ray Rice BAL Height: 5-8 Weight: 212
8 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC Height: 5-7 Weight: 208
9 Adrian Peterson MIN Height: 6-1 Weight: 217
10 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG Height: 5-10 Weight: 214
11 Peyton Hillis CLE Height: 6-2 Weight: 250
12 Thomas Jones KC Height: 5-10 Weight: 212
13 Matt Forte CHI Height: 6-2 Weight: 218
14 Jamaal Charles KC Height: 5-11 Weight: 199
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
from Times Pic articleRunning back: This is the marquee competition of camp. Rookie Mark Ingram and veteran Pierre Thomas have alternated reps with the first team throughout camp, and both have had their moments. Darren Sproles will man Reggie Bush's old role as the satellite back and steal a few carries to keep defenses honest, but Ingram or Thomas will be the primary ball carrier. The running back spot is similar to wide receiver in Payton's offense. Regardless of who starts, the final number of reps will likely be similar between the two.
I almost guarantee he gets over 200 carries. 1st down, 2nd down, short yardage, goal line, Ingram is the guy on those situations more often than not.Ingram will be lucky to see over 200 carries, everyone knows this, it seems every year people like to overhype rookie rbs and say how many carries they will get, please people Ingram isn't gonna get 350 carries, wake up esp with Thomas, sproles, ivory on board.. Ingram will not even be top 15 rb, mark my words....Initially I thought the same thing, but 15/game is at 240 (AP in his rookie season had 244), the numbers you are throwing out seem to indicate you think he could near 300 for a rookie, with limited training camp, with a rookie who will play more than 12 games for the 1st time in his career, with a rookie who I presume NO will need come week 18, 19 maybe week 20 of the NFL season?I just think it would not be smart, or in fact needed.When Peterson got his 244 as a rookie, TJax was the QB, and Bobby Wade was the leading WR on that team.They NEEDED AP to run the ball.The Saints have one of the best QB's in the league, good WR's, an athletic TE with promise, and other RB's who can contribute.I just don't think they will feel the need to give this guy 250+ carries as a rookie.I think we'll all look back on this thread and laugh at how silly our under-estimates of his carries were. Payton is going to lean on him. A LOT. Trust me. This isn't going to be Larry Johnson or Eddie George type of work. But, 15-carries-per-game minimum, with some games deep in the 20s. Buy now while the price for him is at its lowest.25-30 carries a game would be 400-480 on the year.I don't think any RB gets that this year, or ever again (Larry Johnson holds the record with 416)I am not even sure he gets the 15/game you are suggesting.That would lead to 240 carries.I see him at around 216 or so 13.5/game.I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first team
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Not saying this won't end up being the case, but that's placing a lot of faith in Pierre Thomas, who's been active for 73.4% of the possible 64 regular season games in his career.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I think people are grossly underestimating Ingram's talent.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Anyone have an opinion or insight regarding whispers that Pierre's ankle injury from last season still isn't totally right? That was a weird injury. It lasted a lot longer than anyone predicted. And I'm sure I read this "whisper" somewhere but can't seem to find any updates or corroboration now.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
I don't really think that's the case. Those who aren't as hyped about Ingram seem to be mostly down on the opportunity part of the equation. At least that's how I see it.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Who and how does "everyone" know this?I am in the camp that think he will get just over 200.Ingram will be lucky to see over 200 carries, everyone knows this, it seems every year people like to overhype rookie rbs and say how many carries they will get, please people Ingram isn't gonna get 350 carries, wake up esp with Thomas, sproles, ivory on board.. Ingram will not even be top 15 rb, mark my words....Initially I thought the same thing, but 15/game is at 240 (AP in his rookie season had 244), the numbers you are throwing out seem to indicate you think he could near 300 for a rookie, with limited training camp, with a rookie who will play more than 12 games for the 1st time in his career, with a rookie who I presume NO will need come week 18, 19 maybe week 20 of the NFL season?I just think it would not be smart, or in fact needed.I think we'll all look back on this thread and laugh at how silly our under-estimates of his carries were. Payton is going to lean on him. A LOT. Trust me. This isn't going to be Larry Johnson or Eddie George type of work. But, 15-carries-per-game minimum, with some games deep in the 20s. Buy now while the price for him is at its lowest.25-30 carries a game would be 400-480 on the year.I don't think any RB gets that this year, or ever again (Larry Johnson holds the record with 416)I'm curious what role those who say Ingram will now be the 'bell cow' see for pierre thomas, chris ivory and darren sproles. I mean that is a lot of mouths to feed for a team that is a pass first team
I am not even sure he gets the 15/game you are suggesting.
That would lead to 240 carries.
I see him at around 216 or so 13.5/game.
When Peterson got his 244 as a rookie, TJax was the QB, and Bobby Wade was the leading WR on that team.
They NEEDED AP to run the ball.
The Saints have one of the best QB's in the league, good WR's, an athletic TE with promise, and other RB's who can contribute.
I just don't think they will feel the need to give this guy 250+ carries as a rookie.
200-220 range
Overhyped is one thing, but to think he will be "lucky" to see 200 carries is short sighted IMO
Last year rookies
Mathews had 157 and missed about 4 games
Blount had 201 and missed 3-4 games
Best had 174 (58 REC)
Spiller had 74 and missed 2-3 games
Gerhart had freaking 81 carries, and he is a FB
2009
Moreno had 247
Wells had 176 and missed a game
Mccoy had 155 (40 REC)
DBrown had 78 and missed about 5 games
SGReene had 109 and missed about 4-5 games
2008
Forte had 314 (64 REC)
Slaton had 268 (50 REC)
CJohnson had 251 (43 REC)
KSmith had 239 (39 REC)
JStew had 183
Hightower had 143
DMac had 113 and missed about 4 games
2007
ADP had 238
Lynch had 280
This list seems clear to me, if a rookie RB can play 16 games, and came into camp as a potential starter, he will be see a good amount of work.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
'Anthony Borbely said:
Doug B
Footballguy
I posted that in the Shark Pool last week, with the caveat that it was message-board scuttlebutt with no link. It was never reported in any media.It was posted on the saintsreport.com message board by some fans that attended the first week of training-camp practices. Thomas was being held out of a lot of drills, ostensibly because his ankle still wasn't right.'LawFitz said:
Doug B
Footballguy
The FFB blogosphere is whiffing on this one pretty badly. See posts #165-172 in Ingram's Spotlight thread.I'll reiterate some of what I wrote in that thread:'Faust said:
A lot of people will read that article as "the final number of rushing attempts will likely be similar ...", just like the Rotoworld headline writer did. They'll ignore that Ingram's role will likely allow him to smoke Thomas in fantasy points over the course of the season. All Jeff Duncan wrote is that Ingram and Thomas are sharing first-team reps in camp right now. That's no surprise, as Thomas' reps in the first week of camp were limited (no link) and now he needs the work.
Some things in Ingram's favor:
1) Ingram has the Saints' goal-line role right now. He also has the Saints' red-zone RB role right now -- IOW, they're not just going to wave Ingram in when the ball's inside the 3.
2) The Saints traded their best goal-line RB of the Payton era to the Dolphins. Yep, Reggie Bush actually was deadly and efficient inside the 5. Someone is getting some extra work to fill the gap, and it's going to be mostly Ingram.
3) The Saints RBs, combined, scored 28 rush/rcv TDs in 2008, and 26 in 2009. When the RB corps is not a MASH unit and Sean Payton can allocate the rush/pass percentages the way he prefers, there's plenty of opportunity for a RB to rack up TDs.
4) Pierre Thomas himself scored 12 TDs in 2008 (in 160 touches!) despite playing part time and sharing a backfield with two goal-line backs par excellence in Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush.
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im not gonna dig it up but a few weeks ago pierre himself admitted he "wasnt 100%." ofc, this was in response to glowing praise from his teammates and media who said he looked great on the practice field. pierre said something like, i can be better, i know myself and im not quite there.
