Kffl Blog: Temper enthusiasm on Mark Ingram (2 Viewers)

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Looking more and more like this guy was right. Leopards don't change their spots overnight.

Saints played arguably the 2 best defenses in the league. Let's wait until they play some average ones before we start to come to a conclusion.

lol this is from the 'felix jones thread'

in fairness jets and 49ers prob two of the top run def in football. but the injury problems looks like may surface their ugly head again

funny this is the exact same thing some guy said about ingram...

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Looking more and more like this guy was right. Leopards don't change their spots overnight.

I guess people forget how McFadden looked his first 2 years in the league.

The 'leopard' I was referring to was Peyton and his play calling...

 

[bulger2holt]

When PT goes down, Ingram will be a solid #1 WR. Until then, grab some wood bub.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Payton had Deuce run the ball almost 250 times in 06 and thats with Bush getting over 150 carries and 88 receptions. This is bunk, backwards-looking analysis. Payton has RBBC out of necessity, not preference.

How do you like your crow Bloom?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

It's subscriber content, but in the Mark Ingram Spotlight, Jason Wood presents an excellent article debunking a couple of the KFFL claims. Wood states 1) that Sean Payton has run RBBC recently not out of philosophy, but out of necessity, between injuries and never having had a back of Ingram's talent; and 2) that the NO offense is not too pass happy to have a workhorse RB, and that the coaching staff has realized NO has had the best team results (a Super Bowl win and a NFC Championship Game loss) when the team has had a more balanced offensive attack than when they've been more pass-oriented.

Seeing as how I think this is one of THE most misanalyzed issues in "other" fantasy circles, I'm going to post the contents of my Spotlight here:

Mark Ingram is one of the running backs that can make your team a championship contender in 2011, thanks to a combination of great talent, a great situation, and misplaced skepticism which is keeping his average draft position lower than it should be.

A Prototypical NFL Workhorse

Mark Ingram was drafted in the 1st round after a stellar collegiate career. For those who don't pay a lot of attention to the college game, Ingram not only dominated, but he dominated in the SEC --- the nation's most competitive and talent-laden league. As a sophomore (2009), Ingram became the University of Alabama's first every Heisman Trophy winner, on route to a national championship. He logged 271 carries for 1,678 yards and 17 touchdowns, and was effective as a receiver, too --- with 32 receptions for 334 yards and 3 TDs. Had Ingram come out after his sophomore season, he might have been a top 10 pick, but he opted to return to Alabama where it was expected he would compete for another national championship and --- possibly --- back-to-back Heismans. A minor knee injury derailed that plan, and Ingram ended up running for only 875 yards and 13 TDs. But that didn't derail NFL scouts from viewing him as the best back in college, and the most NFL-ready tailback to hit the league in years.

Ingram is 5'9" and 215 pounds and runs with a low center of gravity, decisiveness, and power. Our own Matt Waldman, who pens the fantastic Rookie Scouting Portfolio, had this to say about Ingram:

Ingram is one of the smartest runners I've seen. He makes great reads, presses the hole, and he has the rare ability to set up defenders a step ahead of the game. These are the skills that not only made Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Edgerrin James stars, but it also gave them longevity and productivity as their physical gifts declined.

Ingram has an explosive burst and he accelerates from his cuts, which combined with his patience makes him a dangerous player. However, Ingram's grind-it-out power and terrific balance is a dimension of his game that will make him a back that an offense can ride to preserve a lead. His pass protection techniques are good enough that with additional study he'll become a back that only leaves the field when he needs a break.

A quality about Ingram that's evident on film that isn't a technique is Ingram's passion and killer instinct. I believe he's going to be the player who consistently makes the big plays that make a difference in a game. In this respect, he also reminds me of Frank Gore --- another back with great vision, power, balance, and strong acceleration.

DEBUNKING THE MISCONCEPTIONS

Misconception #1 --- Rookie RBs are a bad investment

Fantasy football owners have short memories. It's a "what have you done for me lately" mindset for most of them, and that's often an opportunity for the more astute of you who can look back at history. While the last few seasons haven't produced an immediate star rookie RB, there's plenty of precedent to suggest it's been a fluke. In fact, it wasn't that long ago that if a rookie RB struggled; it was a condemnation on their overall future. After all, the RB position is one of the most instinctive --- and that's why rookie tailbacks have historically been able to step right in and make an impact.

[*]Matt Forte finished RB4 as a rookie in 2008

[*]Steve Slaton finished RB6 as a rookie in the same year

[*]Chris Johnson wasn't a top 10 RB as a rookie, but he was RB11 (in 2008)

[*]Adrian Peterson finished as the #3 fantasy RB in 2007

[*]Marshawn Lynch was RB12 in 2007

[*]Maurice Jones-Drew was the #8 RB in 2006

[*]Joseph Addai was RB11, also in 2006

So let's recap, although the rookie RBs in 2009 and 2010 didn't produce elite stats out of the gate, the three prior seasons were terrific. 7 rookie RBs produced fantasy RB1 numbers over those three seasons, an enviable hit rate.

Misconception #2 --- Sean Payton insists on a running back-by-committee

The Saints head coach Sean Payton has become one of the most respected offensive minds in football --- with good reason. In his five seasons as head coach, the Saints have ranked 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, and 6th in total yards, and 5th, 12th, 1st, 1st, and 11th in total scoring. With that kind of success, it's understandable that many fantasy owners would think, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." But GREAT coaches aren't unyielding, they're always adjusting to their situations. Payton understands that the NFL adapts, and if you can't evolve from year to year, you're doomed.

How is this relevant to Ingram's fantasy success? Because too many people are fixating on the fact that Sean Payton has never had a workhorse back in New Orleans. First of all, the notion that Payton never had a workhorse in untrue. In 2006 --- his first season at the helm --- Payton had Deuce McAllister, and gave him 244 carries and 30 receptions. 274 touches is "work horse" in today's NFL, and if Mark Ingram gets 270+ touches, he's going to demolish expectations.

Now let's take a look at what Payton had to work with in 2007-2010:

2007 --- Reggie Bush led the Saints with 157 carries, and Aaron Stecker had 114 carries. Pierre Thomas was the third option with 50 carries. Both Bush and Thomas only appeared in 12 games and Stecker --- while heroic that year --- was an extremely limited talent.

2008 --- The top three rushers were Pierre Thomas (129 carries), Reggie Bush (106) and Deuce McAllister (107). McAllister was coming back from a major injury and was on his last legs, Bush missed six games (and was banged up for several others), and Thomas missed time, and only really earned reps toward the end of the season.

2009 --- The top three rushers were Mike Bell (172 carries), Pierre Thomas (147) and Reggie Bush (70). Once again, all three runners missed games, and were banged up in others. And once again neither Thomas nor Bell were ever considered elite talents, while Bush (an elite talent) hasn't given the coaches any reason to think he could handle a heavy workload now four years into his disappointing career.

2010 --- A veritable M.A.S.H. unit as unheralded rookie Chris Ivory led the team with 137 carries, but missed four games. Pierre Thomas (10 games), Reggie Bush (8 games), Ladell Betts (8 games) and Julius Jones (6 games) all missed SIGNIFICANT portions of the season.

Long story short, Sean Payton hasn't used a committee for philosophical reasons; he's done so because he HAD NO CHOICE. He hasn't had healthy backs with the talent to handle 20+ touches in a game. Mark Ingram is the tonic to what ails the Saints running game. Payton will see Ingram as the weapon he's been trying to do without for years, and no longer has to.

Misconception #3 --- The Saints are too pass happy to support a workhorse RB

This is the most absurd of the major misconceptions, yet I have heard far too many "pundits" throw it out there as a reason to discount Mark Ingram's fantasy outlook. A quick look at the Saints run/pass ratios each year tells the story:

Year Atts Rush %Pass %Run Postseason

2006 580 469 55.3% 44.7% L,ConfChamp

2007 653 384 63.0% 37.0% NoPlayoffs

2008 636 391 61.9% 38.1% NoPlayoffs

2009 543 465 53.9% 46.1% W,SuperBowl

2010 658 376 63.6% 36.4% L,WildCard

I can't emphasize this enough. In the three years where New Orleans threw the ball more than 60% of the time, the Saints either missed the playoffs completely or bowed out in the first round. In the two seasons when they had more balance, they advance deep into the playoffs once and WON THE SUPER BOWL the other instance. Do you honestly think that wasn't FRONT AND CENTER on the minds of Coach Payton and the Saints personnel department on the day they decided to trade back into the first round to draft Mark Ingram?

Crow must be especially bitter when eaten after your 1-3 'dream team' loses to the 49ers. Try adding some ranch.

 

[shader]

Payton had Deuce run the ball almost 250 times in 06 and thats with Bush getting over 150 carries and 88 receptions. This is bunk, backwards-looking analysis. Payton has RBBC out of necessity, not preference.

How do you like your crow Bloom?

Seasons not over yet.Two frustrating sequences for Ingram owners. On one, they give the ball to the fullback at the 1 for the TD. Then they have Ingram in at the 1, fake it to him and throw it to Graham.I'd be really worried if I were a re-draft owner. Bigtime worried. I think Sproles has been SO good, that it really has taken unexpected time from Ingram. I'm going to stop with the excuses until Ingram performs though. I still am convinced that it has nothing to do with talent and everything to do with situation.As such, in dynasty, Ingram is a clear buy right now. In fact, Ingram still could be a buy in re-draft if his owners have practically given up on him. Lets face it, he's the goalline back and this is an explosive offense. The TD's will come. But at this point, it's getting a little frustrating for Ingram owners, there is no question.

 

[Hendo]

i stayed far far away from this mess on a hunch and took julio jones over him in my dynasty league, im loving my hunch right now.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Enthusiasm is officially tempered.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Payton had Deuce run the ball almost 250 times in 06 and thats with Bush getting over 150 carries and 88 receptions. This is bunk, backwards-looking analysis. Payton has RBBC out of necessity, not preference.

How do you like your crow Bloom?

Seasons not over yet.Two frustrating sequences for Ingram owners. On one, they give the ball to the fullback at the 1 for the TD. Then they have Ingram in at the 1, fake it to him and throw it to Graham.

I'd be really worried if I were a re-draft owner. Bigtime worried. I think Sproles has been SO good, that it really has taken unexpected time from Ingram.

I'm going to stop with the excuses until Ingram performs though. I still am convinced that it has nothing to do with talent and everything to do with situation.

As such, in dynasty, Ingram is a clear buy right now.

In fact, Ingram still could be a buy in re-draft if his owners have practically given up on him. Lets face it, he's the goalline back and this is an explosive offense. The TD's will come.

But at this point, it's getting a little frustrating for Ingram owners, there is no question.

True. and there is a lot of in this thread, that's not really deniable.

But for all we laud FBG's for the hits and the amazing services they provide, I don't think there's anything wrong with expressing a little frustration with the brain-trust on this one. They are what everyone (well most everyone ) thought they were. It's a pass happy Offense/OC/QB, with a 'complimentary' running attack at best. And that is probably what they are going to be for the next 2-3 years absent an injury (or three) in the saints backfield as it sits right now. What FBG staffers ( in large part ) did here was the classic case of over-thinking a situation and allowing the desire to 'go against he grain because I know things that they don't' That and it's possible honestly that Ingram isn't as good as advertised. Now this could easily be a McFadden type situation where he 'figures it out' in Y2 or Y3. But he's been getting a decently good # of touches (albeit about 10 per game less than the prognostications here called for) and has been doing very pedestrian work with them. He is the 'goal-line back' on a team that rarely sniffs the goal line, largely due to the way they score tds, and their propensity to play action/pass far more than they run, but in fairness a lot of that seem to have to do with Ingrams ineffectiveness in the short yardage work that he has gotten. Like the KFFL piece predicted, there just aren't enough carries/touches for him to become the RB1 or even RB2 that people drafted him for.

I'm very curious what said staffers say about the state of affairs in NO, and if they do think it's time to cut bait on ingram (at least in redrafts) or if there is a glimmer of hope. I must say that the anticipated return of Ivory has me questioning this strongly, especially with what he showed last year. Only problem is that odds are you won't get anywhere near what you paid for him, so it might be just better to stash him until someone gets injured and just pray it's not him.

I'm not just flaming FBG's for the helluvit, but read the KFFL piece again. It has near precisely predicted how this situation would play out. It was pushed aside and scoffed at because it differed from the group-think mentality around here. Hopefully this will provide a good lesson going forward in that regard. Plus, in many, many other threads I have lauded and celebrated other FBG calls. Nothing wrong with calling a a on this one IMHO.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Without griping too much specifically about Ingram... it is not, as many like to pretend, possible to "prove" or "debunk" things in the preseason - especially for rookies who are on good teams with good coaches. What you are doing in this case is constructing a narrative from a skeleton of facts, a story with the happy ending of boku fantasy points.

 

[cvnpoka]

eh, hes on pace for 213 carries. dodds projected 230, wood 200 and henry 215. they are pretty spot on about his workload, but well of his ability to produce. that can obv change and the coaches have shown they love going to him on the gl.

 

[TidesofWar]

64k ? - If the Saints did not have big plans for Ingram, why move up to get him?

I believe the plans are there, but are a work in progress, and that Payton is taking advantage of having 3 healthy RBs while he can.

I think patient owners might reap a an Ingram dividend later in the year, if they can stay in contention

 

[rascal]

eh, hes on pace for 213 carries. dodds projected 230, wood 200 and henry 215. they are pretty spot on about his workload, but well of his ability to produce. that can obv change and the coaches have shown they love going to him on the gl.

They have?

 

[Breesisdaman]

If the Saints backfield wasnt crowded enough already in comes the guy who led the Saints in rushing last season Chris Ivory. This will be interesting because Ivory is also what the Saints consider their battering ram. He just hasnt been able to stay healthy otherwise the Saints wouldnt have needed to add Ingram in the first place.

Chris Ivory, RB NO

News: Saints coach Sean Payton said RB Chris Ivory (foot, abdomen) would have been ready to play during Sunday's win against Jacksonville if he was available. Payton said Ivory is completely healthy even though he's still on the PUP list and is eligible to return to the team after the Week 6 matchup against Tampa Bay.

 

[cvnpoka]

eh, hes on pace for 213 carries. dodds projected 230, wood 200 and henry 215. they are pretty spot on about his workload, but well of his ability to produce. that can obv change and the coaches have shown they love going to him on the gl.

They have?

hmm, i guess not, it appears hes only had 1 carry inside the 5.

 

[Touchdown There]

I'm very curious what said staffers say about the state of affairs in NO, and if they do think it's time to cut bait on ingram (at least in redrafts) or if there is a glimmer of hope. I must say that the anticipated return of Ivory has me questioning this strongly, especially with what he showed last year. Only problem is that odds are you won't get anywhere near what you paid for him, so it might be just better to stash him until someone gets injured and just pray it's not him.

I'm not just flaming FBG's for the helluvit, but read the KFFL piece again. It has near precisely predicted how this situation would play out. It was pushed aside and scoffed at because it differed from the group-think mentality around here. Hopefully this will provide a good lesson going forward in that regard. Plus, in many, many other threads I have lauded and celebrated other FBG calls. Nothing wrong with calling a a on this one IMHO.

You hit the nail on the head. I am very thankful to the OP. The re-posting of the KFFL blog put enough doubt in my mind in the preseason that I did not reach for Ingram in drafts. I am sure that it saved others in the pool.

 

[shader]

In fairness to Ingram, he gets a large number of short yardage carries. Not just goalline, but 3rd and shorts. That makes his ypc look lower than it actually is.

From what I've seen of Ingram thus far, this isn't a case of him not producing, it's a case of him not quite having the opportunities.

He had two goalline opportunities that Payton went another way with. If he scores one or both, we'd all be talking about how he's getting more work. As it is, he's getting nothing but flack.

I think the TD's will come, but at the very least it is very concerning. Throw in Ivory and you have to wonder what the Saints plans are.