Knowshon Moreno (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

recently it seems many are down on moreno*... that he didn't show much last year... the little i saw of him, i didn't see a lot of explosiveness, tackle breaking or big plays in general...

he was impressive in college... does he have upside, and is he capable of playing better than he did as a rookie (its not like he was terrible, but perhaps more was expected from the top RB in his draft class?)...

in case he is undervalued relative to some of his young RB peers in startup dynasty drafts, a few questions for those that followed him in college & then in DEN last year...

1 - how good is his open field speed and quickness?

2 - how good is his contact balance, power & tackle breaking ability?

3 - cutting ability, COD, general elusiveness, the ability to string moves together?

4 - as a rookie, he had an injury before the season... did it linger into the season... any reoccurrences of that injury, or cases of different ones, in-season?

* like in the recent young RBs thread... i also am very high on stewart... and wells has a lot of similarities to stewart... but IF moreno is undervalued, perhaps he belongs CLOSER to the top, than the middle, or even near the bottom, of the list of those young RBs discussed in that thread...

 

[Garts]

I don't think he was never really 100% healthy to tell you the truth.

 

[ty247]

I think people are grossly underestimating him based on last year.

He wasn't fully healthy, he was a bit dinged up through the season.

There were some plays that I think showed he has a future in the NFL, and McDaniels loves him.. soooo..

I'd say if you can buy him on cheap pick him up.

 

[Bob Magaw]

rookie highlights... flashes some explosiveness... impressive hesitation move catured in slo-mo (around 2:40 mark)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92owAaBGf_A

georgia career highlights (intro has conversation/interview with fellow georgia alum/great herschel walker - moreno highlights proper start about 2 minute mark)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5Tvu9Cx9PQ

 

[FTRWRTR]

I agree he's undervalued and has talent, the problem is he's in a terrible situation and has a coach who seems to prefer using a rbbc and thus moreno will never be able to produce like ppl want

 

[Bob Magaw]

another question that could bear on the issue...

how is the broncos OL (i know clady is very young and already pro bowl-caliber, arguably best young LT in the game - maybe he is better at pass than run blocking, admittedly a more critically important skill set for a LT)?

 

[TS Garp]

I definitely think he's undervalued. If I had no idea at all what Moreno did last year and only read these threads and went off general perception, I'd think he had something like 850 total yards and 6 total td's. The guy had almost 1,200 total yards and 9 td's. Very nice production for a rookie. No, he didn't become the stud out of the gate that some people expected/hoped for, and his YPC is mediocre. He also clearly wore down. But the Broncos are still a work in progress and Moreno still looks like a big part of their plans. He still has a high ceiling and should improve on last year. It's puzzling why some owners are so down on him.

 

[Garts]

I definitely think Moreno is a grinder who will always be a good player, but never an elite one. He also isn't a sexy pick because he doesn't have the explosion and speed that pops out at you.

A steady and dependable RB2 in dynasty....and maybe more valuable in performance type leagues with ppr and yardage.

What bothered me a few times last year were the times he seemed to get stuffed in short yardage. Whether that was on Moreno or the OL, I expected him to be better in those situations. Maybe it was a combination of both.

I expect to be better in 2010....if he's healthy he might be a steal.

 

[moleculo]

another question that could bear on the issue...how is the broncos OL (i know clady is very young and already pro bowl-caliber, arguably best young LT in the game - maybe he is better at pass than run blocking, admittedly a more critically important skill set for a LT)?

in transition. Clady is solid, the interior has been the weak point, especially with Weigmann gone. McD is in the process of moving away from the ZBS and moving towards more of a traditional power scheme - pulling guards and the like. Knowing that, some struggles should have been expected.My impressions of Moreno vs CBuck is that CBuck seemed to have things fall into place more than Moreno - call it being in the right place at the right time more often. Of course, that could have to do with more speed and better vision; without knowing details of the plays as called and a good understanding of blocking responsibilities, it's tough to say why CBuck had more big plays. I also believe Moreno's late season struggles largely depended on the OL struggling, and McD's insistence on running up the gut on short yardage situations. I know he's a genius and all, but I wasn't a fan of the playcalling, especially late in the season.

 

[ty247]

another question that could bear on the issue...how is the broncos OL (i know clady is very young and already pro bowl-caliber, arguably best young LT in the game - maybe he is better at pass than run blocking, admittedly a more critically important skill set for a LT)?

in transition. Clady is solid, the interior has been the weak point, especially with Weigmann gone. McD is in the process of moving away from the ZBS and moving towards more of a traditional power scheme - pulling guards and the like. Knowing that, some struggles should have been expected.My impressions of Moreno vs CBuck is that CBuck seemed to have things fall into place more than Moreno - call it being in the right place at the right time more often. Of course, that could have to do with more speed and better vision; without knowing details of the plays as called and a good understanding of blocking responsibilities, it's tough to say why CBuck had more big plays. I also believe Moreno's late season struggles largely depended on the OL struggling, and McD's insistence on running up the gut on short yardage situations. I know he's a genius and all, but I wasn't a fan of the playcalling, especially late in the season.

I second the playcalling. A lot of short yardage plays, McDaniels placed his faith in the Oline to get him the 1-2 yards.. however the guards had trouble getting push up the middle to get those tough yards.

 

[EBF]

I don't think he's undervalued. If anything, he might be overvalued. His ADP in dynasty startups is about what it was last season despite the fact that he didn't have an impressive rookie year. He averaged only 3.8 YPC, barely broke any big plays, didn't have a single 100+ yard game, had a long run of just 36 yards, and was outplayed by Correll Buckhalter.

I tentatively had Moreno ranked as the top rookie RB last season. In a sense it wasn't a terrible ranking because he probably had the best FF season of any rookie RB and his value hasn't fallen much. On the other hand, some of my concerns about him entering the league were justified. The fundamental problem with Moreno is this:

He has no power and no speed.

Moreno gives good effort and he has quick feet, but he looks light in pads and he can't run away from anyone at the NFL level. Without great power or speed, he's unable to make big plays. What you're left with is a compiler whose only hope to achieve consistent top shelf production is by shouldering a massive workload. Unfortunately, backs with imminently replaceable skill sets aren't usually given 300+ carries every season.

Based on what we saw of Moreno in his rookie season, a very best case scenario would be a Curtis Martin career trajectory. He could become a low end RB1 who compiles decent stats every season despite lacking big play skills. The worst case scenario would be the Marshawn Lynch/Laurence Maroney career trajectory where he slips into a RBBC and never meets the initial expectations that FF teams had for him. I think he;s closer to Maroney/Lynch than he is to Martin.

That said, there's always the possibility that he will improve next season. I find it unlikely that a back who had 247 carries and looked totally pedestrian will suddenly become a superstar, but maybe he can improve and become another Thomas Jones. If injuries did slow him down last season then there might be some reason to expect better results when he's healthy.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I don't think he's undervalued. If anything, he might be overvalued. His ADP in dynasty startups is about what it was last season despite the fact that he didn't have an impressive rookie year. He averaged only 3.8 YPC, barely broke any big plays, didn't have a single 100+ yard game, had a long run of just 36 yards, and was outplayed by Correll Buckhalter.

I tentatively had Moreno ranked as the top rookie RB last season. In a sense it wasn't a terrible ranking because he probably had the best FF season of any rookie RB and his value hasn't fallen much. On the other hand, some of my concerns about him entering the league were justified. The fundamental problem with Moreno is this:

He has no power and no speed.

Moreno gives good effort and he has quick feet, but he looks light in pads and he can't run away from anyone at the NFL level. Without great power or speed, he's unable to make big plays. What you're left with is a compiler whose only hope to achieve consistent top shelf production is by shouldering a massive workload. Unfortunately, backs with imminently replaceable skill sets aren't usually given 300+ carries every season.

Based on what we saw of Moreno in his rookie season, a very best case scenario would be a Curtis Martin career trajectory. He could become a low end RB1 who compiles decent stats every season despite lacking big play skills. The worst case scenario would be the Marshawn Lynch/Laurence Maroney career trajectory where he slips into a RBBC and never meets the initial expectations that FF teams had for him. I think he;s closer to Maroney/Lynch than he is to Martin.

That said, there's always the possibility that he will improve next season. I find it unlikely that a back who had 247 carries and looked totally pedestrian will suddenly become a superstar, but maybe he can improve and become another Thomas Jones. If injuries did slow him down last season then there might be some reason to expect better results when he's healthy.

Thomas Jones is the guy in bold and he looked good because of the great Jet Oline and not because he does anything well. Moreno is faster/quicker, has more elusivemess, COD than Jones now. TJ has a little better power though. Look at the OL guys, that makes a huge difference

 

[EBF]

I don't think he's undervalued. If anything, he might be overvalued. His ADP in dynasty startups is about what it was last season despite the fact that he didn't have an impressive rookie year. He averaged only 3.8 YPC, barely broke any big plays, didn't have a single 100+ yard game, had a long run of just 36 yards, and was outplayed by Correll Buckhalter.

I tentatively had Moreno ranked as the top rookie RB last season. In a sense it wasn't a terrible ranking because he probably had the best FF season of any rookie RB and his value hasn't fallen much. On the other hand, some of my concerns about him entering the league were justified. The fundamental problem with Moreno is this:

He has no power and no speed.

Moreno gives good effort and he has quick feet, but he looks light in pads and he can't run away from anyone at the NFL level. Without great power or speed, he's unable to make big plays. What you're left with is a compiler whose only hope to achieve consistent top shelf production is by shouldering a massive workload. Unfortunately, backs with imminently replaceable skill sets aren't usually given 300+ carries every season.

Based on what we saw of Moreno in his rookie season, a very best case scenario would be a Curtis Martin career trajectory. He could become a low end RB1 who compiles decent stats every season despite lacking big play skills. The worst case scenario would be the Marshawn Lynch/Laurence Maroney career trajectory where he slips into a RBBC and never meets the initial expectations that FF teams had for him. I think he;s closer to Maroney/Lynch than he is to Martin.

That said, there's always the possibility that he will improve next season. I find it unlikely that a back who had 247 carries and looked totally pedestrian will suddenly become a superstar, but maybe he can improve and become another Thomas Jones. If injuries did slow him down last season then there might be some reason to expect better results when he's healthy.

Thomas Jones is the guy in bold and he looked good because of the great Jet Oline and not because he does anything well. Moreno is faster/quicker, has more elusivemess, COD than Jones now. TJ has a little better power though. Look at the OL guys, that makes a huge difference

Therein lies the rub though. Based on what we saw of him last season, it looks like Moreno will only become a high end FF player if he happens to land in a perfect situation. Is that worth a top 40 pick in a dynasty draft? I would say no.

Moreover, McDaniels looks like a lame duck. My hunch is that he won't survive for more than 1-2 more seasons in Denver. Will the next Broncos coach share his optimism about Moreno and his mediocre 3.8 YPC? I doubt it.

 

[KoolKat]

When it comes to Johnsons, he would be Rudi and not Chris.

 

[noneother]

I was able to trade Dwayne bowe and a second for moreno this offseason. So I may be trying to justify myself here.

I remember the hype of this kid coming on last year. People had him graded above Beanie before the draft. After one season, coming in late with contract issues and then I'm assuming conditioning issues and injuries he was able to grab 1200 yards while deferring to cbuck when told. I think he did ok. NOW I respect EBF probly more than any othr poster here, but 40 players better than moreno for a dynasty startup seems extreme to me.

I think with a full offseason of conditioning. Working with the QBs. I expect a 10% increase. I would be disappointed if we didn't see 1500 total yards and 12 TDs. Is that RB1 numbers? In some leagues I think so.

 

[Instinctive]

I was able to trade Dwayne bowe and a second for moreno this offseason. So I may be trying to justify myself here. I remember the hype of this kid coming on last year. People had him graded above Beanie before the draft. After one season, coming in late with contract issues and then I'm assuming conditioning issues and injuries he was able to grab 1200 yards while deferring to cbuck when told. I think he did ok. NOW I respect EBF probly more than any othr poster here, but 40 players better than moreno for a dynasty startup seems extreme to me. I think with a full offseason of conditioning. Working with the QBs. I expect a 10% increase. I would be disappointed if we didn't see 1500 total yards and 12 TDs. Is that RB1 numbers? In some leagues I think so.

In no particular order, I would rather have1. RB Chris Johnson2. RB Maurice Jones-Drew3. RB Adrian Peterson4. RB Ray Rice5. RB Jonathan Stewart6. RB Beanie Wells7. RB Shonn Greene8. QB Aaron Rodgers9. QB Drew Brees10. QB Peyton Manning11. QB Tom Brady12. QB Matt Ryan13. QB Matt Schaub14. QB Tony Romo15. QB Kevin Kolb16. RB Deangelo Williams17. RB Frank Gore18. RB Steven Jackson19. RB Rashard Mendenhall20. RB Jamaal Charles21. RB Michael Turner22. RB Felix Jones23. WR Andre Johnson24. WR Larry Fitzgerald25. WR Calvin Johnson26. WR Santonio Holmes27. WR Miles Austin28. WR Roddy White29. WR Brandon Marshall30. WR DeSean Jackson31. WR Vincent Jackson32. WR Marques Colston33. WR Greg Jennings34. WR Sidney Rice35. WR Steve Smith (NYG)36. WR Hakeem Nicks37. WR Michael Crabtree38. WR Dwayne Bowe39. WR Reggie Wayne40. QB Phillip RiversHuh. Not too hard. I didn't have to go to Steve Smith (CAR), Jay Cutler, any of these TE: J Finley, Gates, Witten, Davis Celek, or Kenny Britt, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas, Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Ahmad Bradshaw...Looks like more than 40.

 

[noneother]

Nice list. Must be preference. 10 in that list I would take after. And maybe harvin and PThomas from the others I would consider before moreno.

14

15

20

22

26

31

36

37

38

40

Guess ppl have their choice. Mine is also based .5ppr

 

[Bob Magaw]

I don't think he's undervalued. If anything, he might be overvalued. His ADP in dynasty startups is about what it was last season despite the fact that he didn't have an impressive rookie year. He averaged only 3.8 YPC, barely broke any big plays, didn't have a single 100+ yard game, had a long run of just 36 yards, and was outplayed by Correll Buckhalter.I tentatively had Moreno ranked as the top rookie RB last season. In a sense it wasn't a terrible ranking because he probably had the best FF season of any rookie RB and his value hasn't fallen much. On the other hand, some of my concerns about him entering the league were justified. The fundamental problem with Moreno is this:He has no power and no speed. Moreno gives good effort and he has quick feet, but he looks light in pads and he can't run away from anyone at the NFL level. Without great power or speed, he's unable to make big plays. What you're left with is a compiler whose only hope to achieve consistent top shelf production is by shouldering a massive workload. Unfortunately, backs with imminently replaceable skill sets aren't usually given 300+ carries every season. Based on what we saw of Moreno in his rookie season, a very best case scenario would be a Curtis Martin career trajectory. He could become a low end RB1 who compiles decent stats every season despite lacking big play skills. The worst case scenario would be the Marshawn Lynch/Laurence Maroney career trajectory where he slips into a RBBC and never meets the initial expectations that FF teams had for him. I think he;s closer to Maroney/Lynch than he is to Martin. 'That said, there's always the possibility that he will improve next season. I find it unlikely that a back who had 247 carries and looked totally pedestrian will suddenly become a superstar, but maybe he can improve and become another Thomas Jones. If injuries did slow him down last season then there might be some reason to expect better results when he's healthy.

i meant undervalued in the sense that, if you think he might be capable of improving on last years numbers, and doing better in the future (top 10-15?) than he is currently ranked, he could represent value.i think it is safe to say he doesn't have exceptional top end speed... he had a listed 4.6 at the combine, and i don't think bettered it at his pro day... for perspective, wells also ran about a 4.6 at the combine, but i think bettered it to a 4.4 at his pro day (ohio state is a NOTORIOUSLY fast track, though... malcolm jenkins and laurinaitis also may have bettered their combine time by a few tenths of a second or so?)... of course, wells is bigger, so the more impressive size/speed combo... moreno had 25 reps (225 lbs) in the BP, which i think is above average for a RB, maybe outstanding... this was same as wells, so being smaller, in this sense, a more impressive BP display by moreno in my mind... wells clearly runs with more power, and i think probably is the better overall pro prospect... "power" in a RB context also has a lot to do with leg drive, contact balance, the ability to get leverage... i haven't seen enough of moreno to write him off as having no power...one of the supposedly most attractive things about moreno entering the NFL was being highly developed, with a complete, pro-ready game (ie - blocking and catching)... how did he look in those departments? only 28 receptions, but he was productive scoring-wise with them, with 2 TDs... maybe this came from c-buck (31 receptions) playing a large third down RB role (sort of like chester taylor to peterson?)... mcdaniels certainly paid dearly for moreno (went about same place as stewart - 1.12), but it is possible he trusted c-buck more than the rookie in that role... perhaps moreno will earn his trust for a bigger role going forward?back to his speed (or lack thereof)... 4.6 does sound plodding, ponderous, even DL-like (some LBs run 4.4-4.5)... just like boldin is almost tediously invoked to illustrate how blazing speed isn't a prerequisite for stardom at the WR position (and conversely, DHB is super fast, but not much else... same with high pedigree speed merchant gone horrifically wrong poster child troy williamson), westbrook is an oft-cited example in the RB domain (at least by me )... he was probably around a 4.6 guy in his prime... but his quickness MORE than compensated... for those who saw moreno in DEN (and going further back, at georgia), is he a candidate to compensate for a lack of pure speed, with above average quickness, feet?i about his elusiveness above, but don't think got a response yet... to recap, how is his shiftiness and make-you-miss ability...he does have great pedigree... or course, the path to dynasty championships is littered with the wreckage and strewn with the corpses of dynasty teams that built around players that were "good in college" (ryan leaf was good in college, so was david terrell, darren mcfadden, etc)... be that as it may, moreno was one of the top 1-2 RBs in NJ state history as a prep, and one of the top 1-2 RBs in georgia history (with herschel walker, of course)...* a couple other "mission critical" traits/attributes for an NFL RB are vision and instincts... i thought moreno's looked good at georgia, but would appreciate feedback from the georgia/collegiate scouting cognoscenti ("in the know") in these areas as well...** if talent-wise, curtis martin and thomas jones are comps, that could end up being pretty good... moreno might be the kind of prospect that isn't great at anything, but good at everything (maybe that decribed tiki barber?)...

 

[Bob Magaw]

I was able to trade Dwayne bowe and a second for moreno this offseason. So I may be trying to justify myself here. I remember the hype of this kid coming on last year. People had him graded above Beanie before the draft. After one season, coming in late with contract issues and then I'm assuming conditioning issues and injuries he was able to grab 1200 yards while deferring to cbuck when told. I think he did ok. NOW I respect EBF probly more than any othr poster here, but 40 players better than moreno for a dynasty startup seems extreme to me. I think with a full offseason of conditioning. Working with the QBs. I expect a 10% increase. I would be disappointed if we didn't see 1500 total yards and 12 TDs. Is that RB1 numbers? In some leagues I think so.

In no particular order, I would rather have1. RB Chris Johnson2. RB Maurice Jones-Drew3. RB Adrian Peterson4. RB Ray Rice5. RB Jonathan Stewart6. RB Beanie Wells7. RB Shonn Greene8. QB Aaron Rodgers9. QB Drew Brees10. QB Peyton Manning11. QB Tom Brady12. QB Matt Ryan13. QB Matt Schaub14. QB Tony Romo15. QB Kevin Kolb16. RB Deangelo Williams17. RB Frank Gore18. RB Steven Jackson19. RB Rashard Mendenhall20. RB Jamaal Charles21. RB Michael Turner22. RB Felix Jones23. WR Andre Johnson24. WR Larry Fitzgerald25. WR Calvin Johnson26. WR Santonio Holmes27. WR Miles Austin28. WR Roddy White29. WR Brandon Marshall30. WR DeSean Jackson31. WR Vincent Jackson32. WR Marques Colston33. WR Greg Jennings34. WR Sidney Rice35. WR Steve Smith (NYG)36. WR Hakeem Nicks37. WR Michael Crabtree38. WR Dwayne Bowe39. WR Reggie Wayne40. QB Phillip RiversHuh. Not too hard. I didn't have to go to Steve Smith (CAR), Jay Cutler, any of these TE: J Finley, Gates, Witten, Davis Celek, or Kenny Britt, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas, Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Ahmad Bradshaw...Looks like more than 40.

i don't want to pick on one name from this list (because i happen to agree with a lot of the names on it)...but if you need to spend a 3rd rounder on moreno, and maybe a 7th or later for kolb... you could get both...i get the point that you like kolb more, and would no doubt get somebody else instead of moreno with that 3rd, instead of kolb...i haven't seen any ADP data to speak of (just a few startup dynasties, and some of them looked like they many not be "representative" of a typical league)... i suspect in 14-16 team leagues (i am in five like this - three 14 team and two 16 team leagues), moreno goes anywhere from the low 2nd to mid-3rd... but i could be off?

 

[twr]

I don't think he's undervalued. If anything, he might be overvalued. His ADP in dynasty startups is about what it was last season despite the fact that he didn't have an impressive rookie year. He averaged only 3.8 YPC, barely broke any big plays, didn't have a single 100+ yard game, had a long run of just 36 yards, and was outplayed by Correll Buckhalter.I tentatively had Moreno ranked as the top rookie RB last season. In a sense it wasn't a terrible ranking because he probably had the best FF season of any rookie RB and his value hasn't fallen much. On the other hand, some of my concerns about him entering the league were justified. The fundamental problem with Moreno is this:He has no power and no speed. Moreno gives good effort and he has quick feet, but he looks light in pads and he can't run away from anyone at the NFL level. Without great power or speed, he's unable to make big plays. What you're left with is a compiler whose only hope to achieve consistent top shelf production is by shouldering a massive workload. Unfortunately, backs with imminently replaceable skill sets aren't usually given 300+ carries every season. Based on what we saw of Moreno in his rookie season, a very best case scenario would be a Curtis Martin career trajectory. He could become a low end RB1 who compiles decent stats every season despite lacking big play skills. The worst case scenario would be the Marshawn Lynch/Laurence Maroney career trajectory where he slips into a RBBC and never meets the initial expectations that FF teams had for him. I think he;s closer to Maroney/Lynch than he is to Martin. That said, there's always the possibility that he will improve next season. I find it unlikely that a back who had 247 carries and looked totally pedestrian will suddenly become a superstar, but maybe he can improve and become another Thomas Jones. If injuries did slow him down last season then there might be some reason to expect better results when he's healthy.

im of the opinion his knee injury was a lingering issue. im also of the opinion that a zone blocking scheme is very poor to his style of play. i think the power scheme denver is changing to will have massive benefits.(if they still are changing)his value is about right on par, people were just as down on mendy when his rookie season ended with an injury. i told people not to sleep on mendy, just as ill tell people not to sleep on moreno... moreno doesnt possess the physical attributes you look for in a franchise back, but he does possess something even more important. determination.

 

[EBF]

I don't think he's undervalued. If anything, he might be overvalued. His ADP in dynasty startups is about what it was last season despite the fact that he didn't have an impressive rookie year. He averaged only 3.8 YPC, barely broke any big plays, didn't have a single 100+ yard game, had a long run of just 36 yards, and was outplayed by Correll Buckhalter.I tentatively had Moreno ranked as the top rookie RB last season. In a sense it wasn't a terrible ranking because he probably had the best FF season of any rookie RB and his value hasn't fallen much. On the other hand, some of my concerns about him entering the league were justified. The fundamental problem with Moreno is this:He has no power and no speed. Moreno gives good effort and he has quick feet, but he looks light in pads and he can't run away from anyone at the NFL level. Without great power or speed, he's unable to make big plays. What you're left with is a compiler whose only hope to achieve consistent top shelf production is by shouldering a massive workload. Unfortunately, backs with imminently replaceable skill sets aren't usually given 300+ carries every season. Based on what we saw of Moreno in his rookie season, a very best case scenario would be a Curtis Martin career trajectory. He could become a low end RB1 who compiles decent stats every season despite lacking big play skills. The worst case scenario would be the Marshawn Lynch/Laurence Maroney career trajectory where he slips into a RBBC and never meets the initial expectations that FF teams had for him. I think he;s closer to Maroney/Lynch than he is to Martin. That said, there's always the possibility that he will improve next season. I find it unlikely that a back who had 247 carries and looked totally pedestrian will suddenly become a superstar, but maybe he can improve and become another Thomas Jones. If injuries did slow him down last season then there might be some reason to expect better results when he's healthy.

im of the opinion his knee injury was a lingering issue. im also of the opinion that a zone blocking scheme is very poor to his style of play. i think the power scheme denver is changing to will have massive benefits.(if they still are changing)his value is about right on par, people were just as down on mendy when his rookie season ended with an injury. i told people not to sleep on mendy, just as ill tell people not to sleep on moreno... moreno doesnt possess the physical attributes you look for in a franchise back, but he does possess something even more important. determination.

The difference between Mendenhall and Moreno is that Mendenhall didn't play as a rookie whereas Moreno logged 247 carries and looked completely pedestrian. I don't usually downgrade prospects based on opportunities they never received, but I'm usually discouraged when a player receives extensive chances and does nothing with them. Moreno was a very underwhelming back last season and the only way he'll sustain (or increase) his current trade value is if he plays much better in the future. I don't see any obvious reason to expect improvement.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I don't think he's undervalued. If anything, he might be overvalued. His ADP in dynasty startups is about what it was last season despite the fact that he didn't have an impressive rookie year. He averaged only 3.8 YPC, barely broke any big plays, didn't have a single 100+ yard game, had a long run of just 36 yards, and was outplayed by Correll Buckhalter.I tentatively had Moreno ranked as the top rookie RB last season. In a sense it wasn't a terrible ranking because he probably had the best FF season of any rookie RB and his value hasn't fallen much. On the other hand, some of my concerns about him entering the league were justified. The fundamental problem with Moreno is this:He has no power and no speed. Moreno gives good effort and he has quick feet, but he looks light in pads and he can't run away from anyone at the NFL level. Without great power or speed, he's unable to make big plays. What you're left with is a compiler whose only hope to achieve consistent top shelf production is by shouldering a massive workload. Unfortunately, backs with imminently replaceable skill sets aren't usually given 300+ carries every season. Based on what we saw of Moreno in his rookie season, a very best case scenario would be a Curtis Martin career trajectory. He could become a low end RB1 who compiles decent stats every season despite lacking big play skills. The worst case scenario would be the Marshawn Lynch/Laurence Maroney career trajectory where he slips into a RBBC and never meets the initial expectations that FF teams had for him. I think he;s closer to Maroney/Lynch than he is to Martin. That said, there's always the possibility that he will improve next season. I find it unlikely that a back who had 247 carries and looked totally pedestrian will suddenly become a superstar, but maybe he can improve and become another Thomas Jones. If injuries did slow him down last season then there might be some reason to expect better results when he's healthy.

im of the opinion his knee injury was a lingering issue. im also of the opinion that a zone blocking scheme is very poor to his style of play. i think the power scheme denver is changing to will have massive benefits.(if they still are changing)his value is about right on par, people were just as down on mendy when his rookie season ended with an injury. i told people not to sleep on mendy, just as ill tell people not to sleep on moreno... moreno doesnt possess the physical attributes you look for in a franchise back, but he does possess something even more important. determination.

The difference between Mendenhall and Moreno is that Mendenhall didn't play as a rookie whereas Moreno logged 247 carries and looked completely pedestrian. I don't usually downgrade prospects based on opportunities they never received, but I'm usually discouraged when a player receives extensive chances and does nothing with them. Moreno was a very underwhelming back last season and the only way he'll sustain (or increase) his current trade value is if he plays much better in the future. I don't see any obvious reason to expect improvement.

Except Mendenhall looked very slow and indecisive in his rookie year to the point where people were saying he was a bust??? I think Moreno is fine and should improve. If the OL does a good job so will he.

 

[Bob Magaw]

summing up the thread so far...

potential "explanations" for why moreno didn't do even better last year (and why a reversal might be cause for optimism in 2010 and in the future, for dynasty purposes)...

scheme - moving away from the shanahan/gibbs/turner-legacy zone blocking scheme, to more of a power emphasis... some broncos followers think this could be a boon to the DEN running game and moreno specifically...

play calling - predictable short yardage calls? with a different scheme/personnel (in future), the same plays that didn't work before, might in the new context?

usage - in a RBBC* with buckhalter in '09. will this always be so, or was moreno brought along slowly (possibly in part due to injury)?

injury - was injured to begin the season... not an ideal way to hit the ground with a running start... this could also lead to a state in-season where he was in less than optimal game shape, & perhaps played catch up all season. did he have an injury that lingered, and would this partially explain a perceived lack of explosiveness?

also,

lack of talent has been broached...

ordinary speed (could be compensated for with quickness, in some cases)

lack of strength (he had 25 reps at the combine, same as beanie wells)

* it has been said by some that the HC prefers a RBBC... since he was a rookie last year, this is presumably a statement about his NE pedigree... a RBBC was used in NE a lot, but that begs the question if it was due to a lack of elite talent in recent years (taylor near the end, maroney inconsistent, faulk, morris, etc)... dillon was used more, but he was an extremely talented RB...

if we are to infer tendencies from his NE background (which may not follow), than it has to be pointed out that using a 1.12 on a RB doesn't smack of a typical belichick/pioli move, which seems to signal a break from tradition, and imply a potential change in intent/usage.

** another point...

even last year it was suggested that a cutler-less offense may evolve in a more run-oriented direction... now it looks like marshall (& scheffler?) could be moving on... the ground might be their best way of moving the ball in the near future...

 

[EBF]

Bench press has almost nothing to do with functional football strength at the RB position.

Reggie Bush is living proof. He did 24 reps of 225 at his pro day, which is more than many OL prospects can manage. Does this mean he's a powerful back? No. Running strength is about bulk and leg drive. It has virtually nothing to do with upper body strength.

I don't care what Moreno benched. Eddie Royal also did 24 reps of 225 and he's a squirt on the football field because he lacks size and lower body strength. Moreno looked surprisingly thin in pads last season and showed very little ability to get yards after contact.

 

[Kleck]

According to Stats Don't Lie, Moreno actually did fairly well picking up yards after contact. Looks to be approx. 64% of his yards.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Bench press has almost nothing to do with functional football strength at the RB position. Reggie Bush is living proof. He did 24 reps of 225 at his pro day, which is more than many OL prospects can manage. Does this mean he's a powerful back? No. Running strength is about bulk and leg drive. It has virtually nothing to do with upper body strength. I don't care what Moreno benched. Eddie Royal also did 24 reps of 225 and he's a squirt on the football field because he lacks size and lower body strength. Moreno looked surprisingly thin in pads last season and showed very little ability to get yards after contact.

this was alluded to in post 18 above..."moreno had 25 reps (225 lbs) in the BP, which i think is above average for a RB, maybe outstanding... this was same as wells, so being smaller, in this sense, a more impressive BP display by moreno in my mind... wells clearly runs with more power, and i think probably is the better overall pro prospect... "power" in a RB context also has a lot to do with leg drive, contact balance, the ability to get leverage... i haven't seen enough of moreno to write him off as having no power..."bush for most of his career in the NFL has bounced things outside... i'm not sure he couldn't do a better job if he the WILL & the DESIRE to, which is a different question that the actual power. if moreno had only 5 BP, would you still say it has almost nothing to do with RB success?one way we can infer explosiveness is VJ... here again, moreno compared favorably with wells (35.5 - 33.5?)...i didn't see moreno a lot, thus the thread, and its open, questioning tone...incidentally, EBF, i don't usually ask, but how many games did you see moreno play in DEN (or is that take based on his play at georgia?)...when you don't state, in a qualifying manner, something like... he doesn't seem to have much power... but state he has NO power, that would seem to entail/presuppose extensive scouting? i certainly haven't seen him enough to make a statement like that, or to be comfortable letting it go unchecked here...extreme statements (exaggeration for effect?) is attention getting, but not necessarily more accurate.* how do you reconcile your perception of NO power with kleck's link in post 25... moreno again stacks up similary in YAC (yards after contact, not catch) to fellow rookie wells (bigger, and generally thought to be a stronger runner)?** it should be pointed out that wells had nearly the same number of YAC so was more productive in that department with less carries... 247 - 176?)... they are similar in PERCENTAGE of YAC to total rushing yards...*** could a lingering leg injury effect his power?

 

[DoubleG]

According to Stats Don't Lie, Moreno actually did fairly well picking up yards after contact. Looks to be approx. 64% of his yards.

He was 16th in the league in yards after contact (ProFootballFocus.com)

The same source graded him out at 15th out of RBs on run plays (he graded out poorly on pass plays).

 

[gandalas]

According to Stats Don't Lie, Moreno actually did fairly well picking up yards after contact. Looks to be approx. 64% of his yards.

He was 16th in the league in yards after contact (ProFootballFocus.com)

The same source graded him out at 15th out of RBs on run plays (he graded out poorly on pass plays).

This same source also rated Pierre Thomas 4th, Fred Jackson 5th, Ray Rice at 7th, and ADP at 8th...not sure I really think this translates well to anything at all, at least fantasy-wise.

 

[EBF]

I'm basing my comments mostly on what he looked like in a Broncos uniform. I don't know how many games I saw. I know that I watched the opener against Cincy and the Thanksgiving game. I probably saw bits of other games and lots of highlights . I owned him in three PPR dynasty leagues last season, so I was keeping tabs on him. He was the most disappointing rookie in the 2009 class based on expectations.

You asked if he's undervalued in dynasty. I think the answer is clearly no. The guy showed me nothing last year. He looked pedestrian on his 275 touches. He didn't break a single 36+ yard play. He has poor speed and workout numbers. Despite all of this he still went at RB16 (42nd overall) and RB12 (27th overall) in my two most recent dynasty startups. Is he undervalued as a top 30-40 pick? I see very little upside at this draft position. He appears to be another Lynch/Maroney, overrated despite strong evidence of mediocrity solely because he was a high draft pick and he's young. Once the novelty wears off, his value will fall (barring huge improvement).

If anything, I'd be selling right now. I've already traded him in 2/3 leagues where I had him.

 

[LHUCKS]

What's his early ADP at?

As others have said, I'd feel a lot more comfortable if the HC would say he's our everydown back.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

recently it seems many are down on moreno*... that he didn't show much last year... the little i saw of him, i didn't see a lot of explosiveness, tackle breaking or big plays in general... he was impressive in college... does he have upside, and is he capable of playing better than he did as a rookie (its not like he was terrible, but perhaps more was expected from the top RB in his draft class?)...in case he is undervalued relative to some of his young RB peers in startup dynasty drafts, a few questions for those that followed him in college & then in DEN last year...1 - how good is his open field speed and quickness?2 - how good is his contact balance, power & tackle breaking ability?3 - cutting ability, COD, general elusiveness, the ability to string moves together?4 - as a rookie, he had an injury before the season... did it linger into the season... any reoccurrences of that injury, or cases of different ones, in-season?* like in the recent young RBs thread... i also am very high on stewart... and wells has a lot of similarities to stewart... but IF moreno is undervalued, perhaps he belongs CLOSER to the top, than the middle, or even near the bottom, of the list of those young RBs discussed in that thread...

I don't like that he didn't have many big plays last year. If you're getting the ball that much as a rookie, you should make a few mistakes but on your pure speed and athletic ability at that age, you should also show flashes of being dangerous and I wouldn't put him in that cateogory. To me, B. Wells improved as the year went on. So, if you look at overall stats that doesn't show the big picture because I felt I saw Wells improve as the year progressed and could see him take a step forward off of last year where as I don't feel that in Moreno. It's too early in Moreno's career obviously to write him off but at this point he's not someone I have a high interest in getting in redraft or dynasty unless the price is right.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Put me in the overrated camp. Something is wrong when a 31 year old Buckhalter looks quicker than you.

 

[CaptainHook]

Looked slow in college and even slower in the pros

buckhalter looked SO MUCH better than him last year.

 

[JPeso]

Not a chance Moreno is undervalued. As previously mentioned, he had a pedestrian year and got huge opportunity from day 1. He's still being drafted in the same spots in PPR leagues this year as he was last offseason. I'd much rather take a gamble on a guy like McCoy who I think has untapped potential.

 

[Bob Magaw]

What's his early ADP at?

As others have said, I'd feel a lot more comfortable if the HC would say he's our everydown back.

KFFL has his ADP at RB19... just ahead of guys like harrison, slaton & sproles (i would much rather have him than that trio... i expect slaton & sproles to drop, if HOU and SD add a RB with a relatively high pick, as expected)... it states that this data is compiled from actual drafts and mocks, not sure about the percentage... there may not have been a ton of drafts yet, no doubt a lot more (and maybe better?) ADP data will be coming in the next month or so. http://www.kffl.com/static/programs/footba...FL&sheet=RB

in FBG scoring, moreno was RB17 last year... this was virtually the same as benson (#9 at KFFL), who had 50+ more carries, and within 9 pts of deangelo (#10 at KFFL)... deangelo did miss three games, & still had about 150+ rushing yards more, on less carries... deangelo and moreno both had 7 rushing TDs, moreno added 2 receiving TDs...

benson turns 28 (december), deangelo 27, and moreno 23... benson's ADP is significantly higher than moreno, but i don't see him having a lot of upside at that age, in a dynasty startup?

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/player...cal-rb-2009.php

moreno is listed at 5'11" 217... i'll try & cite some visual evidence, but guessing he doesn't exactly have chicken legs. in google images, this picture doesn't reveal grotesquely huge, waist-size thighs like campbell, robert newhouse & theotis brown, but conversely they don't look unusually small/weak...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_SO8Y3MIsoP8/SMSs...vs+CMU+2008.jpg

while DHB had significantly lower expectations, he did SO terribly, you could make a case he was the most disappointing rookie.

i'll also check and see what injury info there is about last year, if that represents a mitigating circumstance to his low average carry of 3.8... he looked more explosive to me at georgia...

* a response at a site called broncotalk... an MCL sprain could explain the slow start... looking at his game log, it was all over the place... in games 2-5, his Y/A was 4.4, 4.3, 4.6 & 4.2... in games 6-8, it was 2.4, 3.9 & .6 (on just 5 carries)... in games 9-12, it was 5.4, 8.0, 4.6 & 4.1... than the wheels came off in december, games 13-16... 2.7, 2.2, 2.0 & 3.6... we can't cherry pick stats, but if he hadn't entered the season with a knee sprain, possibly with game conditioning hindrances, maybe he would have started off better... in his best four game stretch in nov, he had 351 yards and three TDs rushing... in the aforementioned stretch of weeks 2-5 (8 carries week one), he had games with 75, 88 & 90 rushing yards, including a rushing and a receiving TD... one concern that has been raised is that in some of the same games, buckhalter did better than moreno... the response below attempts to address this (which resonates with what moleculo alluded to upthread)...

"Moreno often got hammered by defensive tackles who were constantly in the backfield and in his grille when he got the ball handed to him, especially in the second half (when Harris didn't play and our interior line fell apart). Also, his run per average is skewed negatively because he's the one who got the bulk of obvious running plays thanks to McD's much-too-conservative approach. Further, Buckhalter benefited from getting the ball on a lot of outside stretch plays and sweeps whereas Moreno got the bulk of inside run plays (where our interior linemen were getting manhandled)."

** i acknowledge you are being consistent on moreno, EBF... clearly you have soured on him by trading him away in two of three leagues, which will look good if he never does appreciably better (or if you got a lot for him now, regardless)... i just question whether it is too early to write him off, if he was injured part of the season, might have had lingering injuries, and it sounds like there were questions about the OL (late season injuries, coinciding with his appalling december?), a scheme that is in transition (he could do better in more of a power sceme, with different personnel?), and questions about playcalling (see quote immediately above)... not saying you are wrong, mind you, just that i seem to have more questions than you do about how representative last year will ultimately prove over his career, and am far less certain he isn't likely to ever amount to anything other than a mediocre RB... based on just one year of evaluation (in which he may not even have been healthy for stretches of the season)...

*** as to not having a 100 yard game as a rookie, putting up between 75-100 rushing yard games isn't spectacular, but it adds up... (especially if augmented by receiving numbers, which i expect to improve)... he had seven in that range... 16 X 75 = 10 yards shy of 1,200.

**** chris wells had a long run of 33 yards in his rookie year (admittedly on less carries - about 175)... by EBF's rationale, should we write wells off as not likely to ever be more than a mediocre RB? also, LT had a 3.6 Y/A per rush as a rookie (walter payton was 3.5, emmitt smith was 3.9)...

 

[Bob Magaw]

russ lande's scouting report from last year (not sure where the 4.5 came from?)...

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/article/20...knowshon-moreno

NFL position: RB

Height: 5-10 5/8

Weight: 217

40 time: 4.51

Current projection: First-round pick

NFL comparison: Shaun Alexander, free agent

Inside running: Is at his best running between the tackles. Has great vision and run instincts. Is able to find holes, and shows the quick-cut ability to get through them fast. Is an aggressive runner who runs through arm tackles, gets his shoulders down to deliver a blow to would-be tacklers and consistently gains yardage after contact. Is an excellent runner in traffic. Does a good job of getting both hands wrapped around the ball in traffic, avoiding fumbles. Grade: 8.5

Outside running: Follows blockers well. Can break defensive backs' and linebackers' tackles outside on the edge. Lacks the explosive burst and elite speed to get the corner on his own; needs blockers. Grade: 7.0

Blocking: Lacks a lot of experience as a lead blocker on running plays. Displays strength, competitiveness and toughness while pass blocking. Picks up the correct man and stops him on the line. Grade: 6.5

Hands/routes: Reaches out and plucks passes away from his body. Is solid on wheel routes and screen passes. Can make would-be tacklers miss running in the open field. Absorbs hard hits, and keeps his feet to gain yards after contact. Struggles to make long breakaway runs. Grade: 7.5

Durability: Is strong and well built. Plays through pain. Looks to be able to hold up over an entire NFL season. Grade: 8.0

Bottom line: Moreno is one of the most physical running back prospects our scouts have evaluated in years. Despite his lack of elite speed and burst, he is faster than expected and consistently outruns defenders who have angles on him. What's truly impressive is his ability to move well in tight quarters, a trait that separates the good NFL backs from the elite ones. He also is a polished receiver.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

He didn't break a single 36+ yard play.

Why is 35 yards the magic cutoff for explosive RB plays? What % of other top RBs had multiple long runs (>35 yds) in their rookie year? Just trying to understand why this comment is central to your view of Moreno.

 

[Bob Magaw]

He didn't break a single 36+ yard play.

Why is 35 yards the magic cutoff for explosive RB plays? What % of other top RBs had multiple long runs (>35 yds) in their rookie year? Just trying to understand why this comment is central to your view of Moreno.

jonathan stewart's is getting increasing buzz as being in the conversation as a top 5 RB... his long run was 41 yards as a rookie (again, less carries, at about 185)...i would expect stewart to break more long runs... after all, he has sprinter speed, and moreno doesn't... but it does seem like a narrow lens to view things from (obviously EBF didn't base his down opinon SOLELY on this)... one reason i question the usefulness of the stat is that it doesn't tell us anything we didn't know already... he admittedly doesn't have breakaway speed.

 

[moleculo]

* a response at a site called broncotalk... an MCL sprain could explain the slow start... looking at his game log, it was all over the place... in games 2-5, his Y/A was 4.4, 4.3, 4.6 & 4.2... in games 6-8, it was 2.4, 3.9 & .6 (on just 5 carries)... in games 9-12, it was 5.4, 8.0, 4.6 & 4.1... than the wheels came off in december, games 13-16... 2.7, 2.2, 2.0 & 3.6... we can't cherry pick stats, but if he hadn't entered the season with a knee sprain, possibly with game conditioning hindrances, maybe he would have started off better... in his best four game stretch in nov, he had 351 yards and three TDs rushing... in the aforementioned stretch of weeks 2-5 (8 carries week one), he had games with 75, 88 & 90 rushing yards, including a rushing and a receiving TD... one concern that has been raised is that in some of the same games, buckhalter did better than moreno... the response below attempts to address this (which resonates with what moleculo alluded to upthread)...

look at the competition in games 6-8: @ SD, @ BAL, home for Pittsburgh, all three coming off of bye-weeks (that's right, Den played three consecutive playoff opponents coming off of a bye). Week 6 is where SD's rush D started to come together after giving up some big gains previously - before week 6 no one rushed for less than 130, after weeks 6 only the Titans rushed for more than 130. Bal had the league #5 rush D, Pitt was #3. I don't have a good explanation for what happened from week 13 and on, other than the entire offense looked like crap, especially the interior OL and the play-calling got terrible.

"Moreno often got hammered by defensive tackles who were constantly in the backfield and in his grille when he got the ball handed to him, especially in the second half (when Harris didn't play and our interior line fell apart). Also, his run per average is skewed negatively because he's the one who got the bulk of obvious running plays thanks to McD's much-too-conservative approach. Further, Buckhalter benefited from getting the ball on a lot of outside stretch plays and sweeps whereas Moreno got the bulk of inside run plays (where our interior linemen were getting manhandled)."

agree with this 100%. my hindsight is a bit fuzzy, but this O struggled with short yardage rushing all season, and rotated backs in and out. McD started out with Hillis, then went to Jordan, and seemed to settle on Moreno. Being the short yardage back on a team with a traditionally undersized OL and guys who started the season on the bench starting (Hochstein, Polumbus) isn't exactly a recipe for success.Look at where he's rated highest in russ lande's scouting report - 8.5 in between the tackles. IMO that is Moreno's strength - he's really good at making himself small and squeezing through a hole you didn't think was there. I think that's why McD had him be the short yardage guy - he's good at that. But when you aren't getting the blocking, it's tough to make something happen. Also, guys like that are only gonna have supreme fantasy value if they get the ball at the stripe, and get it alot. TD's are where it's gonna be at for Moreno, and as we all know, TD's are notoriously hard to predict.

 

[twr]

only two things i could find on knowmo on youtube.

a few highlights and the game vs NYG ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92owAaBGf_A

doesnt have power or explosion? watch the first carry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YRLfLAELdU&NR=1

 

[twr]

He didn't break a single 36+ yard play.

Why is 35 yards the magic cutoff for explosive RB plays? What % of other top RBs had multiple long runs (>35 yds) in their rookie year? Just trying to understand why this comment is central to your view of Moreno.

jonathan stewart's is getting increasing buzz as being in the conversation as a top 5 RB... his long run was 41 yards as a rookie (again, less carries, at about 185)...i would expect stewart to break more long runs... after all, he has sprinter speed, and moreno doesn't... but it does seem like a narrow lens to view things from (obviously EBF didn't base his down opinon SOLELY on this)... one reason i question the usefulness of the stat is that it doesn't tell us anything we didn't know already... he admittedly doesn't have breakaway speed.

you also forgot to mention stewart plays behind one of the best lines in the NFL.and he had a 36 yard rush against SD.

 

[EBF]

He didn't break a single 36+ yard play.

Why is 35 yards the magic cutoff for explosive RB plays? What % of other top RBs had multiple long runs (>35 yds) in their rookie year? Just trying to understand why this comment is central to your view of Moreno.

It's not. It's just the longest run he had last season. I don't have the stats handy, but my sense is that Moreno had VERY few big plays last season. I would venture to guess that his touches per 20+ yard play numbers put him in some pretty ugly company. Then there's the YPC.

22 RBs had 200+ carries last season. Here they are sorted by YPC average:

Chris Johnson - 5.6

Ray Rice - 5.3

DeAngelo Williams - 5.2

Jonathan Stewart - 5.1

Frank Gore - 4.9

Ricky Williams - 4.7

Rashard Mendenhall - 4.6

Fred Jackson - 4.5

Maurice Jones-Drew - 4.5

Ryan Grant - 4.4

Steven Jackson - 4.4

Marion Barber - 4.4

Adrian Peterson - 4.4

Cedric Benson - 4.2

Thomas Jones - 4.2

Carnell Williams - 3.9

Joseph Addai - 3.8

Knowshon Moreno - 3.8

Brandon Jacobs - 3.7

Matt Forte - 3.6

Kevin Smith - 3.4

LaDainian Tomlinson - 3.3

Out of 22 backs who had 200+ carries last season, Moreno ranked 18th in yards per carry. What does this mean? He was very ineffective running the football.

He doesn't break big plays. He doesn't have a high yards per carry. So what value does he bring to his NFL team? None. You could sign two free agents off the street, split his 247 carries between them, and get the exact same production (maybe better).

The reason guys like Frank Gore and Steven Jackson continue to receive 250+ carries every season is because they do great things with those opportunities. They can shoulder a heavy workload and they routinely finish well above average in YPC. That's why they keep their jobs and that's why they're dynasty gold.

On the flipside, there's virtually no dynasty value in a player who's completely ordinary. By all appearances, Moreno is completely ordinary. He does nothing exceptionally well and his production is imminently replaceable.

I see no reason to be optimistic about a pedestrian runner with no special qualities.

You can bring up the examples that suit your argument like LaDainian Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith. That proves nothing. For every player who started his career with a poor YPC and became a star, there are countless guys who faded into total obscurity. If you're going to bring up LT and Emmitt, you might as well mention Laurence Maroney, Michael Bennett, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Antowain Smith, Anthony Thomas, William Green, JJ Arrington, Tatum Bell, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, Musa Smith, Ron Dayne, TJ Duckett, Deshaun Foster, and James Jackson.

It's really simple for me:

- Moreno has mediocre physical gifts compared to the average NFL RB.

- Moreno looked mediocre last year.

- Moreno had mediocre stats last year.

All signs point to mediocre. Tell me why I'm supposed to think he's anything but mediocre. I don't see any reason.

The only reason to think he's undervalued is if you think his 2009 performance wasn't an accurate reflection of his ability. Maybe...

He was hurt? Doubtful. He was healthy enough to play in 16 games.

His supporting cast doomed him to failure? Doubtful. Correll Buckhalter averaged 5.4 YPC on the same team.

He will naturally improve? Possible. Sometimes RBs spontaneously "get it" like Benson or T. Jones, but you can't assume that it will happen.

I have no reason to want this guy to fail. I had him ranked as the top rookie RB last year and I drafted him in several leagues. I just call it like I see it. He showed me nothing last season and his production was poor. IMO everything points towards a Maroney/Lynch/Julius/Foster type of career trajectory. He's an adequate back who lacks the special qualities to be a desirable option in dynasty leagues.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

He didn't break a single 36+ yard play.

Why is 35 yards the magic cutoff for explosive RB plays? What % of other top RBs had multiple long runs (>35 yds) in their rookie year? Just trying to understand why this comment is central to your view of Moreno.

It's not. It's just the longest run he had last season. I don't have the stats handy, but my sense is that Moreno had VERY few big plays last season. I would venture to guess that his touches per 20+ yard play numbers put him in some pretty ugly company. Then there's the YPC.

22 RBs had 200+ carries last season. Here they are sorted by YPC average:

Chris Johnson - 5.6

Ray Rice - 5.3

DeAngelo Williams - 5.2

Jonathan Stewart - 5.1

Frank Gore - 4.9

Ricky Williams - 4.7

Rashard Mendenhall - 4.6

Fred Jackson - 4.5

Maurice Jones-Drew - 4.5

Ryan Grant - 4.4

Steven Jackson - 4.4

Marion Barber - 4.4

Adrian Peterson - 4.4

Cedric Benson - 4.2

Thomas Jones - 4.2

Carnell Williams - 3.9

Joseph Addai - 3.8

Knowshon Moreno - 3.8

Brandon Jacobs - 3.7

Matt Forte - 3.6

Kevin Smith - 3.4

LaDainian Tomlinson - 3.3

Out of 22 backs who had 200+ carries last season, Moreno ranked 18th in yards per carry. What does this mean? He was very ineffective running the football.

He doesn't break big plays. He doesn't have a high yards per carry. So what value does he bring to his NFL team? None. You could sign two free agents off the street, split his 247 carries between them, and get the exact same production (maybe better).

The reason guys like Frank Gore and Steven Jackson continue to receive 250+ carries every season is because they do great things with those opportunities. They can shoulder a heavy workload and they routinely finish well above average in YPC. That's why they keep their jobs and that's why they're dynasty gold.

On the flipside, there's virtually no dynasty value in a player who's completely ordinary. By all appearances, Moreno is completely ordinary. He does nothing exceptionally well and his production is imminently replaceable.

I see no reason to be optimistic about a pedestrian runner with no special qualities.

You can bring up the examples that suit your argument like LaDainian Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith. That proves nothing. For every player who started his career with a poor YPC and became a star, there are countless guys who faded into total obscurity. If you're going to bring up LT and Emmitt, you might as well mention Laurence Maroney, Michael Bennett, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Antowain Smith, Anthony Thomas, William Green, JJ Arrington, Tatum Bell, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, Musa Smith, Ron Dayne, TJ Duckett, Deshaun Foster, and James Jackson.

It's really simple for me:

- Moreno has mediocre physical gifts compared to the average NFL RB.

- Moreno looked mediocre last year.

- Moreno had mediocre stats last year.

All signs point to mediocre. Tell me why I'm supposed to think he's anything but mediocre. I don't see any reason.

The only reason to think he's undervalued is if you think his 2009 performance wasn't an accurate reflection of his ability. Maybe...

He was hurt? Doubtful. He was healthy enough to play in 16 games.

His supporting cast doomed him to failure? Doubtful. Correll Buckhalter averaged 5.4 YPC on the same team.

He will naturally improve? Possible. Sometimes RBs spontaneously "get it" like Benson or T. Jones, but you can't assume that it will happen.

I have no reason to want this guy to fail. I had him ranked as the top rookie RB last year and I drafted him in several leagues. I just call it like I see it. He showed me nothing last season and his production was poor. IMO everything points towards a Maroney/Lynch/Julius/Foster type of career trajectory. He's an adequate back who lacks the special qualities to be a desirable option in dynasty leagues.

EBF - I appreciate all of your posts in this thread (and others), as I always find your perspective helpful. That said, while an interesting and helpful post, this was a very long-winded way of not answering my question.

 

[FantasyTrader]

He didn't break a single 36+ yard play.

Why is 35 yards the magic cutoff for explosive RB plays? What % of other top RBs had multiple long runs (>35 yds) in their rookie year? Just trying to understand why this comment is central to your view of Moreno.

It's not. It's just the longest run he had last season. I don't have the stats handy, but my sense is that Moreno had VERY few big plays last season. I would venture to guess that his touches per 20+ yard play numbers put him in some pretty ugly company. Then there's the YPC.

22 RBs had 200+ carries last season. Here they are sorted by YPC average:

Chris Johnson - 5.6

Ray Rice - 5.3

DeAngelo Williams - 5.2

Jonathan Stewart - 5.1

Frank Gore - 4.9

Ricky Williams - 4.7

Rashard Mendenhall - 4.6

Fred Jackson - 4.5

Maurice Jones-Drew - 4.5

Ryan Grant - 4.4

Steven Jackson - 4.4

Marion Barber - 4.4

Adrian Peterson - 4.4

Cedric Benson - 4.2

Thomas Jones - 4.2

Carnell Williams - 3.9

Joseph Addai - 3.8

Knowshon Moreno - 3.8

Brandon Jacobs - 3.7

Matt Forte - 3.6

Kevin Smith - 3.4

LaDainian Tomlinson - 3.3

Out of 22 backs who had 200+ carries last season, Moreno ranked 18th in yards per carry. What does this mean? He was very ineffective running the football.

He doesn't break big plays. He doesn't have a high yards per carry. So what value does he bring to his NFL team? None. You could sign two free agents off the street, split his 247 carries between them, and get the exact same production (maybe better).

The reason guys like Frank Gore and Steven Jackson continue to receive 250+ carries every season is because they do great things with those opportunities. They can shoulder a heavy workload and they routinely finish well above average in YPC. That's why they keep their jobs and that's why they're dynasty gold.

On the flipside, there's virtually no dynasty value in a player who's completely ordinary. By all appearances, Moreno is completely ordinary. He does nothing exceptionally well and his production is imminently replaceable.

I see no reason to be optimistic about a pedestrian runner with no special qualities.

You can bring up the examples that suit your argument like LaDainian Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith. That proves nothing. For every player who started his career with a poor YPC and became a star, there are countless guys who faded into total obscurity. If you're going to bring up LT and Emmitt, you might as well mention Laurence Maroney, Michael Bennett, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Antowain Smith, Anthony Thomas, William Green, JJ Arrington, Tatum Bell, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, Musa Smith, Ron Dayne, TJ Duckett, Deshaun Foster, and James Jackson.

It's really simple for me:

- Moreno has mediocre physical gifts compared to the average NFL RB.

- Moreno looked mediocre last year.

- Moreno had mediocre stats last year.

All signs point to mediocre. Tell me why I'm supposed to think he's anything but mediocre. I don't see any reason.

The only reason to think he's undervalued is if you think his 2009 performance wasn't an accurate reflection of his ability. Maybe...

He was hurt? Doubtful. He was healthy enough to play in 16 games.

His supporting cast doomed him to failure? Doubtful. Correll Buckhalter averaged 5.4 YPC on the same team.

He will naturally improve? Possible. Sometimes RBs spontaneously "get it" like Benson or T. Jones, but you can't assume that it will happen.

I have no reason to want this guy to fail. I had him ranked as the top rookie RB last year and I drafted him in several leagues. I just call it like I see it. He showed me nothing last season and his production was poor. IMO everything points towards a Maroney/Lynch/Julius/Foster type of career trajectory. He's an adequate back who lacks the special qualities to be a desirable option in dynasty leagues.

Man I love reading your analysis. Good stuff, but I couldn't disagree more. You're looking at one season and making some sweeping statements, "He doesn't break big plays. He doesn't have a high yards per carry. So what value does he bring to his NFL team? None." Based on 247 carries? Now I understand 247 carries is all we can base our assessment of Moreno on at this point but you're very quick here to equate hasn't with can't. You talk about 40+ yard runs like they're walks in park for any RB worth his mettle. MJD, Peterson and Rice (three pretty decent RB's) each had three runs of 40+ yards last year on 312, 314 and 254 attempts respectively. Moreno not having a carry longer than 36 yards could just as easily be numbers playing their little games - especially if Moreno played at varying degrees less than 100% healthy throughout the year. And I'm NOT saying that's the case. Just saying I wouldn't be so quick to take a microcosm of 247 attempts and start saying "He can't" and "He doesn't".

I personally think we haven't scratched the surface with what Moreno is capable of. But you're right about one thing, I certainly don't have any numbers from last year to back that up because he was thoroughly average. We'll see.

 

[LHUCKS]

What's his early ADP at?As others have said, I'd feel a lot more comfortable if the HC would say he's our everydown back.

KFFL has his ADP at RB19... just ahead of guys like harrison, slaton & sproles (i would much rather have him than that trio... i expect slaton & sproles to drop, if HOU and SD add a RB with a relatively high pick, as expected)... it states that this data is compiled from actual drafts and mocks, not sure about the percentage... there may not have been a ton of drafts yet, no doubt a lot more (and maybe better?) ADP data will be coming in the next month or so.

Meh...that seems about right.People are putting too much stock into how he looked last year IMHO...a lot of guys look unspectacular their rookie year. The real question is how much will Denver use him consistently and predictably IMHO.

 

[Bob Magaw]

He didn't break a single 36+ yard play.

Why is 35 yards the magic cutoff for explosive RB plays? What % of other top RBs had multiple long runs (>35 yds) in their rookie year? Just trying to understand why this comment is central to your view of Moreno.

It's not. It's just the longest run he had last season. I don't have the stats handy, but my sense is that Moreno had VERY few big plays last season. I would venture to guess that his touches per 20+ yard play numbers put him in some pretty ugly company. Then there's the YPC.

22 RBs had 200+ carries last season. Here they are sorted by YPC average:

Chris Johnson - 5.6

Ray Rice - 5.3

DeAngelo Williams - 5.2

Jonathan Stewart - 5.1

Frank Gore - 4.9

Ricky Williams - 4.7

Rashard Mendenhall - 4.6

Fred Jackson - 4.5

Maurice Jones-Drew - 4.5

Ryan Grant - 4.4

Steven Jackson - 4.4

Marion Barber - 4.4

Adrian Peterson - 4.4

Cedric Benson - 4.2

Thomas Jones - 4.2

Carnell Williams - 3.9

Joseph Addai - 3.8

Knowshon Moreno - 3.8

Brandon Jacobs - 3.7

Matt Forte - 3.6

Kevin Smith - 3.4

LaDainian Tomlinson - 3.3

Out of 22 backs who had 200+ carries last season, Moreno ranked 18th in yards per carry. What does this mean? He was very ineffective running the football.

He doesn't break big plays. He doesn't have a high yards per carry. So what value does he bring to his NFL team? None. You could sign two free agents off the street, split his 247 carries between them, and get the exact same production (maybe better).

The reason guys like Frank Gore and Steven Jackson continue to receive 250+ carries every season is because they do great things with those opportunities. They can shoulder a heavy workload and they routinely finish well above average in YPC. That's why they keep their jobs and that's why they're dynasty gold.

On the flipside, there's virtually no dynasty value in a player who's completely ordinary. By all appearances, Moreno is completely ordinary. He does nothing exceptionally well and his production is imminently replaceable.

I see no reason to be optimistic about a pedestrian runner with no special qualities.

You can bring up the examples that suit your argument like LaDainian Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith. That proves nothing. For every player who started his career with a poor YPC and became a star, there are countless guys who faded into total obscurity. If you're going to bring up LT and Emmitt, you might as well mention Laurence Maroney, Michael Bennett, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Antowain Smith, Anthony Thomas, William Green, JJ Arrington, Tatum Bell, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, Musa Smith, Ron Dayne, TJ Duckett, Deshaun Foster, and James Jackson.

It's really simple for me:

- Moreno has mediocre physical gifts compared to the average NFL RB.

- Moreno looked mediocre last year.

- Moreno had mediocre stats last year.

All signs point to mediocre. Tell me why I'm supposed to think he's anything but mediocre. I don't see any reason.

The only reason to think he's undervalued is if you think his 2009 performance wasn't an accurate reflection of his ability. Maybe...

He was hurt? Doubtful. He was healthy enough to play in 16 games.

His supporting cast doomed him to failure? Doubtful. Correll Buckhalter averaged 5.4 YPC on the same team.

He will naturally improve? Possible. Sometimes RBs spontaneously "get it" like Benson or T. Jones, but you can't assume that it will happen.

I have no reason to want this guy to fail. I had him ranked as the top rookie RB last year and I drafted him in several leagues. I just call it like I see it. He showed me nothing last season and his production was poor. IMO everything points towards a Maroney/Lynch/Julius/Foster type of career trajectory. He's an adequate back who lacks the special qualities to be a desirable option in dynasty leagues.

you did say that you watched him a few times as a rookie, & otherwise "kept tabs on him"... i assume this means looking at the box scores...that kind of a cursory, summary review can miss things like scheme & usage... which some DEN observers have confirmed was an issue... if in fact mcdaniels misused him, and routinely/predictably slammed him into the middle, with the interior OL struggling, do you think that would have been conducive to a high yards per carry as a rookie?

[EDIT/ADD - could variations in usage help partially explain his puzzling, bipolar game log history (good stretches in games 2-5 & 9-12, brutal in games 6-8 & 13-16)... he WASN'T bad overall... he was good for about half the season, and bad for about half the season... that screams out for an explanation... tarring his whole season with the "bad" brush is antithetical to this kind of exploration, and precludes a more balanced & thorough appraisal of ALL the factors that went into his WHOLE season, not just the bad part you currently choose to emphasize. moleculo addressed varying level of competition/strength of schedule, with SD, BAL & PIT coming in the week 6-8 stretch... perhaps the horrific week 13-16 did have something to so with hitting the proverbial "rookie wall"... if so, are rookies that hit the wall, some harder than others, doomed to failure... OK, that time i expressed a counter argument in extreme terms - my bad ]...

your tone has been generally dismissive and expressed in extremes & absolutes, without much nuance (his value is none... no special qualities... completely ordinary... the fact that he had 25 BP reps means nothing... the fact that some great RBs have gotten off to slow starts proves nothing etc, etc, etc)... so it is impossible to tell if you have even considered this angle... by all appearances, you haven't. you are just rehashing the reasons why you already made up your mind you don't like him.

so if you think moreno will always be misused, and the broncos will always struggle in the interior OL, than i think it makes a lot of sense to give up on him after one year...

you say he does nothing well, but he was lauded by scouts for his receiving ability, and potential as a blocker (which could translate to increased time)...

you also said he has no speed or power (and highlighted his lack of a 35+ yard play, though wells and stewart as a rookie did about the same?)... the most obvious hole in his game IS a lack of breakaway speed... but other RBs have succeeded without it (westbrook was "slow" but quick)... conflating speed with rare and special RB ability leads to the mistakes such as drafting michael bennett and darren mcfaden so high...

you say moreno is pedestrian, so why do you think he was the consensus top RB on most boards (perhaps wells was on some, but i think he had more injury, and complete game questions?)...

clearly it wasn't because of his speed.

i realize scouts make mistakes all the time (that includes amateurs like us)... and these guys actually watch game film, and are aware of and factoring in things like scheme/usage. but in most cases, we can remember what scouts liked about the prospects AT THAT TIME. like in the case of bennett & mcfadden, speed.

you obviously saw some things in him last year, to draft him in three dynasty leagues. unless you were drafting before the combine and pro days, the fact that he didn't have blinding speed fell into the category of information you ALREADY POSSESSED. it must have been other things that appealed to you... you don't have to remember... here is a post from 11-28-2008 (BEFORE 2009 draft - being drafted where he was, could only have bolstered your high opinion of him?)... and BTW, i didn't do a write up for the class at the time, so i commend you for having material to look back on to shed light on the current dilemma... for me, that dilemma comes in the form of... even if i respect your opinion (i do, in open minded, non-intransient mode), which EBF are we going to believe... the 2008 or the 2010 iteration?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=443539

2. RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia

"Positives: Quick feet, good burst, and good power. Gets to top speed in a hurry and is a tenacious competitor. Consistently productive against tough competition. Sturdy frame with a low center of gravity.

Negatives: Might be a little undersized and seeks contact too often, which results in a lot of big collisions. Not a home run hitter at the next level.

Overall: Moreno looks like a safe bet to become a productive starter in the NFL. He might not be a major big play threat and he might struggle with injuries, but he looks like a very low bust risk overall.

NFL Comparison: Marshawn Lynch"

interestingly, at this time, lynch was thought be you to be a positive comp... 2008, when you wrote the above, he was in the midst of his best season so far (RB15 in FBG scoring - about where moreno was in 2009)... now he is listed as a negative comp (citing also career trajectories of maroney, julius & foster)...

you liked the same guys before (moreno AND lynch) BASED ON PHYSICAL TRAITS & SCOUTING ATTRIBUTES...

[EDIT/ADD/DIGRESSION - this reminds me in some ways of your EXTREMELY low ranking of golden tate in the dynasty thread... you stated he didn't look explosive on film... you did acknowlege that you would move him up if he ran a good 40 and had good drills at the combine, and this happened... the good 40... but why would a good 40 change what you saw on film? i would just expect you say, so what, he runs fast in track shorts, but imo he doesn't LOOK fast or explosive on film... i don't get how something as seemingly abstract as a fast 40... and of course too slow a 40 can be a big problem, you need minimum speed to succeed... i don't see how a fast 40 changes what you SAW... with your own eyes?]...

clearly lynch's situation has changed (jackson looked better), but that would have been hard to predict based on his scouting profile, and the first two years of his career (lynch also hasn't been the beneficiary of a very good OL in BUF)... i didn't see too many scouts predicting lynch was doomed to a maroney/jones/foster-type career trajectory, BEFORE last season... that sounds a bit like revisionist history, and switchey/changey to like him on scouting-based attributes before, and not like him now, when only his situation has changed.

in your list below...

"...Laurence Maroney, Michael Bennett, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Antowain Smith, Anthony Thomas, William Green, JJ Arrington, Tatum Bell, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, Musa Smith, Ron Dayne, TJ Duckett, Deshaun Foster, and James Jackson."

how many of those had 1.12 pedigree? how many of them would you have graded as #2 overall in their rookie class (fantasy/dynasty)?

lynch was drafted about there, and he didn't get off to a bad start in his first two years, given circumstance of going to a rebuilding team with an unsettled QB situation. stewart was taken there recently... mcfadden has been a failure so far, but he was controversial BEFORE the draft, with warning by some that he succeeded in a gimmick offense, had chicken legs and would be a one-dimensional, situational RB incapable of running inside (generally not thought to be an issue with moreno)... there have been other collossal busts further back (lawrence phillips & kijana carter - but those could have been for legal and injury reasons, respectively)... benson, brown & cadillac were taken very high (for a RB) a few years ago... cadillac can't really be evaluated due to injury reasons, brown has emerged, so did benson eventually, though maybe too late for some that gave up on him... also from above list, green may have been close in pedigree, and a contra-indicator of the poor starts can be overcome school of thought... perry was another injury casualty...

benson and thomas jones (in your list above of "good" RBs with better per carry averages - both in top 15 at 4.2) would be good examples of high pedigree RBs that were misjudged due to slow starts.

on your point that citing LT, smith and payton doesn't PROVE* anything, and being able to list a much longer list of bad backs... this is a given... by definition, great RBs are rare, and there will be a much smaller list of them... it is always easier to create a list of average players (there are a lot more of them)... the whole point/purpose of this exercise (like it always is in fantasy/dynasty) is to hunt down and run to ground exceptions that might beat the odds... a laundry list of players that DIDN'T beat the odds isn't that useful or even relevant (again, we already knew that most RBs don't become top 3-5-10)...

issues of scheme & usage could shed light on the LIKLIHOOD of beating the odds... to me, it is issues like that which are precisely what is being investigated... in stating that buckhalter had a higher per carry average, this seems to completely blow by and not even look at the witness and testimony of some locals (who DID watch the games, and may have been more familiar with scheme usage questions & implications) who mentioned that buckhalter was allowed more sweeps, and didn't run up the gut as much... obviously, slamming it up the gut for a team with a poor interior OL is not a recipe for busting lots of long runs... the RB with the consensus best hands for his position in the class of '09 among the top prospects (ie - moreno) got less than 2 receptions a game... i'd be surprised if this is always the case... perhaps if he gets the ball in space more, he will have more opportunity to be creative (than slamming it up the gut with a poor interior OL)...

what if DEN rebuilds the OL (especially interior) and makes it better... his value can only go UP in the short term if that happens (it already is what it is without those potential/likely improvements - mcdnaiels has already gone on the record stating he thought moreno's lack of greater success was more on the OL than a lack of intrinsic ability).

you doubt he was hurt... now if you are determined to think his issues are talent (despite thinking he was talented before the draft), that could cause you to downgrade the evidence that he was hurt... we KNOW he was hurt with a sprained MCL before the season, this is pretty indisputable... this could lead to the counterintuitive position that not missing any games equates to no injury? again, this isn't a very nuanced position... this leads to binary... injured or uninjured categories, extreme, black & white positions (which is characteristic of the tenor of your position here as a whole)... of course there are gradations and levels of injury... health is relative and a continuum... lande's scouting report above specifically mentions he is tough and plays through pain... if he hadn't been as tough, and had missed a game or two, than presumably you would have admitted he was "hurt"? could this be a case of effectively punishing a player (in your hasty eval) for being tougher than others in some instances... if somebody kicked you in the knee right before the season, would you expect it to get BETTER by playing instead of resting? but again, if you are determined to blame talent (despite praising his talent BEFORE draft), it would be consistent to be dismissive about the injury question... it doesn't really fit in too well with your current belief system regarding moreno.

* proof is an odd choice of words - i am aware, as no doubt everybody in this thread is, they we are not attempting to PROVE things to level that might be required in the mathematical realm... mentioning this is, at best, superfluous and a given (less generously and sympathetically - patronizing and condescending).

i respect the fact that you are a contrarian... but i think sometimes you come off as dismissive, and speaking in extremes & absolutes (moreno is worthless, does nothing well, completely in contradiction to your approx year old scouting profile... examples of great backs with humble beginnings means NOTHING to you... a good BP means NOTHING, etc, etc, etc) is not representative of your best work.

a less extremist, more nuanced debate, could benefit the thread. even being as down on him as i have no doubt you are now, imo things are rarely as black and white as you seem to be portraying them... of course, if he is completely mediocre, he could lose his job, which would render him worthless... but i am referring to scouting attributes rarely being so black and white... how you could go from liking him so much to viewing him as useless in just one season (with possible cause for less rigid/simplistic interpretation than - ZERO talent, NO speed or power, etc) is unclear... i realize scouts make mistakes, and sometimes attributes and traits that looked good in college don't translate well to the NFL... MAYBE this is such a case, but i want to explore other possible causes/explanations first. refusing to consider scheme/usage possibilities (scheme/personnel could improve, maybe buckhalter had a high per carry average because he was USED differently, etc) doesn't help with this purpose in mind.

i'm not assuming anything as far as the liklihood of his replicating the arc and trajectory of benson & t. jones... but i'm also disinclined to assume he isn't capable of improving... if there might be mitigating factors potentially explaining his less than stellar debut (why conversely assume he is william green and not benson/jones?)... it is possible to finish out of the top 10 as a rookie and go on to have a good career.

RB17 isn't worthless... an alternative to falling on his face is that, while he may never be a top 3-5-10 RB (and you definitely don't have to pay him like that to get him in a draft or trade for him), what if he is a top 12-15? that is pretty close to where he was as a rookie... possibly injured (at least part of the season), with scheme/personnel/usage questions... not great, not terrible, debate on how good/bad, plenty of room for interpretation (which i think a rigid, dismissive stance is antithetical to).

its not like he needs huge improvement to get to top 12-15 RB? if so, is he really dooomed to failure, and imminent (eminent?) replacement? is there that much gap and separation from where he ended up (RB17), and where he would need to be to be more productive and with greater job security (RB12-15?)... yet you seem so sure he is doomed. will they always have a QB as ordinary as orton, and never get one that might put moreno around the goal line on a more regular basis? if they move marshall, might they run more? these are both reasonable possibilities, and imo, multiple reasons to NOT rush to judgement so quickly.

all that said, if all the evidence is actually considered (??), and moreno is STILL deemed doomed to failure, than his value in that analysis could be that it is as high as it is ever going to be, & you did the right thing by moving him... he could be a bad season away from having his value plummet (see lynch, mcfadden, other recent high pedigree RBs this happened to - also to forte & slaton, but they are not comps in terms of pedigree)...

 

[EBF]

You are making this much more complicated than it needs to be. Like I said earlier...

It's really simple for me:- Moreno has mediocre physical gifts compared to the average NFL RB.- Moreno looked mediocre last year.- Moreno had mediocre stats last year.All signs point to mediocre.

I did not think Moreno was a brilliant talent last season. Here are some of my direct quotes about him:

2. RB Knowshon Moreno, BroncosI still have a nagging suspicion that Moreno might be fool’s gold since he doesn’t have the physical gifts you usually see from first round RBs, but he plays quicker and more explosive than he tests. He has very good lateral quickness, toughness, and instincts. He also offers good potential in the passing game. One or two of the backs in this draft might ultimately become better NFL players, but Moreno looks like the safest pick from where we stand today. I expect him to start immediately and receive a significant workload next season.

RB1. Knowshon Moreno - Lacks elite tools, but should be decent. Not as gifted as hype would indicate. Good player though.

This isn't exactly effusive praise. I was always worried about Moreno's poor workout numbers. I thought his combination of vision, toughness, and quickness might allow him to succeed despite his lack of speed and explosiveness. After seeing him in action numerous times and watching him underwhelm week after week, I changed my opinion. This isn't inconsistent. I usually change my stance on prospects when there's strong evidence that my initial opinion was flawed. 247 carries of unimpressive running qualifies as strong evidence in my book. My take on Moreno is pretty simple. He was a college overachiever. He lacks special qualities at the NFL level. His vision, quickness, and toughness will make him an adequate performer, but he's never going to be a standout pro. His only hope for significant value is to accumulate a lot of touches because he doesn't break big plays and he's a low YPC runner. Unfortunately, his chances of receiving a lot of touches are murky in the long term because he doesn't appear to be a good enough player to lock down a starting job. You asked if he's undervalued. I already gave my answer. I think he's actually overvalued. He's an ordinary back being overdrafted on the basis of youth and perceived potential. Sure, there's a non-zero probability of him becoming a serviceable low end RB1/high end RB2 type like Thomas Jones or Curtis Martin, but since he's being picked right around RB12-RB15 in most leagues, he's already being drafted at his upside. This draft position doesn't account for the significant probability of him tumbling in value like Laurence Maroney, Marshawn Lynch, and Julius Jones. When a player is drafted at his upside without factoring in any of the risk involved, he's usually overvalued. If you draft Moreno at RB12-RB16, the best you can hope for is a jump up of about 5-6 spots. The worst you can hope for is a slip into total obscurity. Based on his profile and performance thus far, I'd say he's more likely to slip into Maroney/Lynch/Julius fringe territory than he is to ascend into the elite ranks. I would be looking to move him in all of my leagues before his perceived value catches up with his actual value.

 

[az_prof]

Personally, based on watching him play in a couple of games, I was not impressed. But I am open to the possibility that I could be wrong and it isn't out of the question for a back to show major improvement in his second season. I value him, but I don't value him as highly as last year, simply because he didn't look that good to me when I saw him play. He's a guy I will watch in preseason to see if there is more explosiveness and elusiveness, which is what was missing. I just didn't see him breaking or eluding too many tacklers.

 

[gianmarco]

He didn't break a single 36+ yard play.

Why is 35 yards the magic cutoff for explosive RB plays? What % of other top RBs had multiple long runs (>35 yds) in their rookie year? Just trying to understand why this comment is central to your view of Moreno.

jonathan stewart's is getting increasing buzz as being in the conversation as a top 5 RB... his long run was 41 yards as a rookie (again, less carries, at about 185)...i would expect stewart to break more long runs... after all, he has sprinter speed, and moreno doesn't... but it does seem like a narrow lens to view things from (obviously EBF didn't base his down opinon SOLELY on this)... one reason i question the usefulness of the stat is that it doesn't tell us anything we didn't know already... he admittedly doesn't have breakaway speed.

Breaking long runs isn't a prerequisite to be a top RB in the league. It's ok if you don't break any long runs.....as long as you are doing something else well. Stewart had a fantastic YPC, scored TDs, and overall LOOKED the part. Moreno, on the other hand, had a miserable YPC. I could buy the miserable YPC if he was at least breaking some long runs (the point that I think was trying to be made). But he wasn't. So if he's not breaking long runs and he's not generating a lot of yards per carry, what exactly is he doing well that would warrant him continuing to get a lot of touches (a DEFINITE prerequisite to be a top scoring fantasy RB)?

 

[gianmarco]

Personally, based on watching him play in a couple of games, I was not impressed. But I am open to the possibility that I could be wrong and it isn't out of the question for a back to show major improvement in his second season. I value him, but I don't value him as highly as last year, simply because he didn't look that good to me when I saw him play. He's a guy I will watch in preseason to see if there is more explosiveness and elusiveness, which is what was missing. I just didn't see him breaking or eluding too many tacklers.