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Few things...last year means what now?
So you go from claims about the Lions D and Packers Oline (that are statistically incorrect)...to this?puckalicious said:
That's not really true at all. Ryan Grant was a bell cow when he was with the team, as was Cedric Benson in 2012 prior to his injury. 2011 and 2012 (following the Benson injury) is actually the only years where Mccarthy hasn't used a bell cow, which is actually what he prefers. The only time he doesn't use that is when the quality of running backs is weak, not when there are more than one capable RBs, like you said.puckalicious said:
And you keep saying how the past doesn't matter... yet you keep referencing things in the past.
And ease up on the tool factor while you're at it, we're all just giving opinions here so lets do it in a civil manner.
Im stating that worrying about what the Packers did with Alex Green running behind a line with Marshall Newhouse is not indicative of what they will do with Bakhtiari and Lacy and Franklin. But that historical stats will show that they are a better run blocking unit...and historical stats will show that Detroit's run defense is not faring better this year than last (thus far this season).And you keep saying how the past doesn't matter... yet you keep referencing things in the past.
My point is that "statistics" don't necessarily tell the story about a team's talent level. Sometimes cherry picking useless stats like rush yds allowed paints a completely different picture. Based on this you would think SF's run defense is horrible since they allowed 151 yds last week. Or by using yds/carry vs the Lions - they have 85 carries for 443 yds on the season for 5.2yds/carry. Just 2 of these carries accounted for 30% of the yards against them for 131yds. So yes, it is possible to break off a long run against them but otherwise it's more like 3.75yds/carry discounting those 2 long runs.
Does Lacy have the talent level of ADP or Forte? He's more of a bruising RB not a speedy guy like those two. How likely do you think he can rip off a 50+ yard run?
Like others have said, this game is more likely to be a shootout with little rushing going on. Odds are Lacy gets around 50yds on the day and with luck there's a TD as well.
I'll probably start him but not expecting more than about 5 points. My options at RB2 are pretty slim, not that anyone here cares.
Lacey has a low floor and a med. high ceiling for this game depending on how the game progresses. While Det has a high ypc against, it is inflated with a couple of long runs per 19 carries (approx). When you take that into account Det. ypc against is a paltry 2.7, with GB's offensive scheme I think he will find some room to run but I have tempered my expectations. I'm figuring 65 with .5 tds low and 105 and 1.75 tds high. This can be a highly volatile play especially in the red-zone where GB likes to throw, figure 65% pass and 35% run with a higher % pass within 25 to 5 yards.sho nuff said:Im stating that worrying about what the Packers did with Alex Green running behind a line with Marshall Newhouse is not indicative of what they will do with Bakhtiari and Lacy and Franklin. But that historical stats will show that they are a better run blocking unit...and historical stats will show that Detroit's run defense is not faring better this year than last (thus far this season).puckalicious said:And you keep saying how the past doesn't matter... yet you keep referencing things in the past.sho nuff said:
My point is that "statistics" don't necessarily tell the story about a team's talent level. Sometimes cherry picking useless stats like rush yds allowed paints a completely different picture. Based on this you would think SF's run defense is horrible since they allowed 151 yds last week. Or by using yds/carry vs the Lions - they have 85 carries for 443 yds on the season for 5.2yds/carry. Just 2 of these carries accounted for 30% of the yards against them for 131yds. So yes, it is possible to break off a long run against them but otherwise it's more like 3.75yds/carry discounting those 2 long runs.
Does Lacy have the talent level of ADP or Forte? He's more of a bruising RB not a speedy guy like those two. How likely do you think he can rip off a 50+ yard run?
Like others have said, this game is more likely to be a shootout with little rushing going on. Odds are Lacy gets around 50yds on the day and with luck there's a TD as well.
I'll probably start him but not expecting more than about 5 points. My options at RB2 are pretty slim, not that anyone here cares.
My posts have been quite civil...so, you can ease up throwing around "tool factor".
What stats did I cherry pick?
Any stat you want to use will show that...
A. Despite your claims, the Packers are a better run blocking line this year that last year.
B. Despite your claims, the Lions run D is so far faring worse this year than last year.
C. Despite your cherry picking the 100 yard rusher stat, GB actually did have some success running the ball against the Lions last year.
D. GB is running better with their RBs and line this year than they did last year.
I completely disagree with your odds about Lacy's total.
If he gets the carries (15+and I believe he will)...70 and a TD seems to be the floor here. Breaking 100 would depend on 2 things. Breaking at least a 20 yarder...and McCarthy sticking with him and the run in general (something he has done this year)
