Ladarius Green's value (1 Viewer)

[Maurile Tremblay]

He wasn't really expected to play, and he didn't. The team can only put seven guys on the inactive list. The only reason Green was active was that the Chargers had more than seven players out due to injury.

 

[zamboni]

On the positive side for Green owners, Gates drew only 5 targets in Green's absence when Rivers threw the ball 39 times. Rivers is playing at a high level and spreading the ball out, but Gates got fewer than expected targets as the sole TE yesterday.

 

[humpback]

On the positive side for Green owners, Gates drew only 5 targets in Green's absence when Rivers threw the ball 39 times. Rivers is playing at a high level and spreading the ball out, but Gates got fewer than expected targets as the sole TE yesterday.

Not really seeing how that's a positive- they clearly like Gates more than Green as a pass catcher, so it stands to reason that if Green had played instead of Gates, he would have had even fewer targets.

 

[zamboni]

On the positive side for Green owners, Gates drew only 5 targets in Green's absence when Rivers threw the ball 39 times. Rivers is playing at a high level and spreading the ball out, but Gates got fewer than expected targets as the sole TE yesterday.

Not really seeing how that's a positive- they clearly like Gates more than Green as a pass catcher, so it stands to reason that if Green had played instead of Gates, he would have had even fewer targets.

Maybe, maybe not. While Gates is still a trusted target and will have the occasional big game, the days of his dominance are long gone. What may be working against Green as much - if not more - than Gates, is that Royal and Floyd are also healthy and making plays. That slices the pie a lot more.

 

[humpback]

On the positive side for Green owners, Gates drew only 5 targets in Green's absence when Rivers threw the ball 39 times. Rivers is playing at a high level and spreading the ball out, but Gates got fewer than expected targets as the sole TE yesterday.

Not really seeing how that's a positive- they clearly like Gates more than Green as a pass catcher, so it stands to reason that if Green had played instead of Gates, he would have had even fewer targets.

Maybe, maybe not. While Gates is still a trusted target and will have the occasional big game, the days of his dominance are long gone. What may be working against Green as much - if not more - than Gates, is that Royal and Floyd are also healthy and making plays. That slices the pie a lot more.

Which also isn't a positive...

Not sure what you're referring to with "Maybe, maybe not". They clearly prefer Gates to Green right now, and it seems logical/likely that they would target their preferred option more than their non-preferred one.

 

[zamboni]

On the positive side for Green owners, Gates drew only 5 targets in Green's absence when Rivers threw the ball 39 times. Rivers is playing at a high level and spreading the ball out, but Gates got fewer than expected targets as the sole TE yesterday.

Not really seeing how that's a positive- they clearly like Gates more than Green as a pass catcher, so it stands to reason that if Green had played instead of Gates, he would have had even fewer targets.

Maybe, maybe not. While Gates is still a trusted target and will have the occasional big game, the days of his dominance are long gone. What may be working against Green as much - if not more - than Gates, is that Royal and Floyd are also healthy and making plays. That slices the pie a lot more.

Which also isn't a positive...

Not sure what you're referring to with "Maybe, maybe not". They clearly prefer Gates to Green right now, and it seems logical/likely that they would target their preferred option more than their non-preferred one.

Point is if that Green is in there, maybe some of those balls to Royal or Floyd go to Green instead. Don't know, although I agree that the team favors the steadiness of Gates over the upside of Green right now.

Green needs an injury or significant further aging signs by Gates to become fantasy-relevant. I think we can all agree on that.

 

[humpback]

On the positive side for Green owners, Gates drew only 5 targets in Green's absence when Rivers threw the ball 39 times. Rivers is playing at a high level and spreading the ball out, but Gates got fewer than expected targets as the sole TE yesterday.

Not really seeing how that's a positive- they clearly like Gates more than Green as a pass catcher, so it stands to reason that if Green had played instead of Gates, he would have had even fewer targets.

Maybe, maybe not. While Gates is still a trusted target and will have the occasional big game, the days of his dominance are long gone. What may be working against Green as much - if not more - than Gates, is that Royal and Floyd are also healthy and making plays. That slices the pie a lot more.

Which also isn't a positive...

Not sure what you're referring to with "Maybe, maybe not". They clearly prefer Gates to Green right now, and it seems logical/likely that they would target their preferred option more than their non-preferred one.

Point is if that Green is in there, maybe some of those balls to Royal or Floyd go to Green instead. Don't know, although I agree that the team favors the steadiness of Gates over the upside of Green right now.

Green needs an injury or significant further aging signs by Gates to become fantasy-relevant. I think we can all agree on that.

Sure, maybe if/when Green plays he makes a few amazing catches and they change the game plan to incorporate him more, but logically it doesn't make sense to think that it's likely that they would give their back up receiving TE more targets than their starting receiving TE. IMO, it's certainly not a positive for Green that Gates only got 5 targets in that game.

I do agree with the last sentence.

 

[Otis]

Will he ever play again?

 

[Otis]

Green has very much a Jermichael Finley feel to him. We may be waiting for our stud forever...

 

[humpback]

 

[cstu]

Green has very much a Jermichael Finley feel to him. We may be waiting for our stud forever...

Finley got his chance and did little with it. The only thing stopping Green is the HOF TE starting in front of him.

 

[humpback]

Green has very much a Jermichael Finley feel to him. We may be waiting for our stud forever...

Finley got his chance and did little with it. The only thing stopping Green is the HOF TE starting in front of him.

I'm not so sure that's all it is anymore.

 

[FF Ninja]

Green has very much a Jermichael Finley feel to him. We may be waiting for our stud forever...

wat?

Finley was an average talent in a plus situation, derailed by injuries. Green is a plus talent in a potential plus situation, but currently sitting in a very minus situation.

 

[LawFitz]

I like Lad Green but what concerns me isn't that he's unable to unseat Gates. It's that he's unable to unseat Royal.

 

[Shutout]

I like Lad Green but what concerns me isn't that he's unable to unseat Gates. It's that he's unable to unseat Royal.

Its not Royal, its Floyd. Since he returned, Green is an absolute afterthought.

 

[Da Gildz]

Pretty easy to read here. He's a hold for owners in those 1.5 ppr FFPC formats who are playoff bound...he's GOLD if Gates goes down. If Gates stays healthy, well you have a dead roster spot. But I'd continue to hold in those TE PPR heavy leagues..

 

[zamboni]

Something more behind the scenes must be going on for Green to see few looks, and not just the renaissance of Gates and the health of Royal and Floyd.

Team brass said in the pre-season that they need to get more Green involved - if he were truly that talented, they'd find a way. It's just not happening, which may be that they believe he's not doing the things in practice he needs to be doing.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Ladarius Green caught his lone target for nine yards in San Diego's Week 8 loss to the Broncos.

It just isn't happening for the explosive third-year pro, who's been glued to the sideline as Antonio Gates has exploded for six touchdowns over his past four games. Green has seven total targets over the same stretch. Keep Green stashed in Dynasty leagues, but quarantined to the waiver wire in re-draft formats.

Oct 24 - 12:32 AM

 

[Milkman]

Is Green a FA after this season?

Would love to see this guy land in GB.

 

[cstu]

Is Green a FA after this season?

Would love to see this guy land in GB.

2015 is the last year of his contract.

 

[msudaisy26]

It has nothing to do with Green's talent. There are too many mouths to feed in San Diego. Rivers seems to have his guys for certain things

Gates - Red zone guy

Allen - Short yardage over the middle guy

Floyd/Royal - deep threats/if they have a mismatch guy

Running backs - screen pass/ dump off in a pinch guys

That leaves very little for Green, and now that Rivers isn't playing as well there is even less to go around. Green is a handcuff in redraft leagues at best. In dynasty he is a firm hold or a buy if the other owner can't continue to hold onto him. It looks like Gates found the Tony Gonzalez magic touch and has turned back the clock. So my guess is we will have to wait until 2015 when he leaves as a free agent.

 

[Milkman]

Agreed. He's definitely a hold. I'm praying for GB with Cobb leaving this year. That kind if destination could singlehandedly change your season.

 

[humpback]

IMO the "too many mouths to feed" argument is pretty weak at this point. SD isn't exactly bursting at the seems with receiving talent, if he was as great as many thought he'd certainly be able to wrestle a few more targets away from the all-mighty Eddie Royal.

It seems he's either not as good as advertised right now or the coaches are incompetent. Probably a combination of both.

 

[Milkman]

Hasn't SD been known for not identifying and playing their best talent?

 

[msudaisy26]

Hasn't SD been known for not identifying and playing their best talent?

It was a different regime, but San Diego has misused a lot of their best talent or just let them walk.

 

[msudaisy26]

IMO the "too many mouths to feed" argument is pretty weak at this point. SD isn't exactly bursting at the seems with receiving talent, if he was as great as many thought he'd certainly be able to wrestle a few more targets away from the all-mighty Eddie Royal.

It seems he's either not as good as advertised right now or the coaches are incompetent. Probably a combination of both.

It isn't like he is a wide receiver and gets on the field in the 3 and 4 receiver sets. He is a tight end and I don't watch a lot of Charger games, but I don't think they use a whole lot of 2 tight end sets

 

[humpback]

IMO the "too many mouths to feed" argument is pretty weak at this point. SD isn't exactly bursting at the seems with receiving talent, if he was as great as many thought he'd certainly be able to wrestle a few more targets away from the all-mighty Eddie Royal.

It seems he's either not as good as advertised right now or the coaches are incompetent. Probably a combination of both.

It isn't like he is a wide receiver and gets on the field in the 3 and 4 receiver sets. He is a tight end and I don't watch a lot of Charger games, but I don't think they use a whole lot of 2 tight end sets

If they felt that he was one of their best receiving options, don't you think that they would play more 2 TE sets? Other teams certainly do.

Obviously more snaps would be better, but that doesn't explain everything either- he's played 227 offensive snaps this year but only has 17 targets. They don't throw to him even when he's in the game.

 

[Milkman]

He doesn't run a lot of routes because they use him to block. I don't how anybody could think Royal is a better receiving option.

 

[msudaisy26]

IMO the "too many mouths to feed" argument is pretty weak at this point. SD isn't exactly bursting at the seems with receiving talent, if he was as great as many thought he'd certainly be able to wrestle a few more targets away from the all-mighty Eddie Royal.

It seems he's either not as good as advertised right now or the coaches are incompetent. Probably a combination of both.

It isn't like he is a wide receiver and gets on the field in the 3 and 4 receiver sets. He is a tight end and I don't watch a lot of Charger games, but I don't think they use a whole lot of 2 tight end sets

If they felt that he was one of their best receiving options, don't you think that they would play more 2 TE sets? Other teams certainly do.

Obviously more snaps would be better, but that doesn't explain everything either- he's played 227 offensive snaps this year but only has 17 targets. They don't throw to him even when he's in the game.

To you first question the answer is no. Most coaches run their sets, the ones they are comfortable with. They aren't going to change their entire offense unless they guy is an unbelievable talent. Green is a good talent he isn't Gronk or Graham.

Your second statement directly goes with my earlier point. Rivers is comfortable with "his guys" and those are the guys he throws too most of the time. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I am pretty sure on a lot of those snaps Green was asked to block.

Coaches and quarterbacks are weird, look at the way some of them use their guys. Matt Stafford seems to forget about Golden Tate when Calvin Johnson is healthy, even though Tate is a very good receiver. Andy Reid doesn't use Kelce or Bowe correctly at all. He even seems to mess up his usage of Charles too from time to time. The Colts continue to run Richardson out there like he good. Why doesn't Tim Wright get more snaps in New England, he only seems to produce every time he is in and targeted?

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

He's collecting dust on the end of my dynasty roster

 

[Milkman]

I would definitely not drop him. I know it sucks waiting but you can build dynasty rosters around elite TE. I'm not saying he is for sure elite but there's a chance he can be. He's produced in real NFL games at a very high level when given the opportunity.

 

[humpback]

IMO the "too many mouths to feed" argument is pretty weak at this point. SD isn't exactly bursting at the seems with receiving talent, if he was as great as many thought he'd certainly be able to wrestle a few more targets away from the all-mighty Eddie Royal.

It seems he's either not as good as advertised right now or the coaches are incompetent. Probably a combination of both.

It isn't like he is a wide receiver and gets on the field in the 3 and 4 receiver sets. He is a tight end and I don't watch a lot of Charger games, but I don't think they use a whole lot of 2 tight end sets

If they felt that he was one of their best receiving options, don't you think that they would play more 2 TE sets? Other teams certainly do.

Obviously more snaps would be better, but that doesn't explain everything either- he's played 227 offensive snaps this year but only has 17 targets. They don't throw to him even when he's in the game.

To you first question the answer is no. Most coaches run their sets, the ones they are comfortable with. They aren't going to change their entire offense unless they guy is an unbelievable talent. Green is a good talent he isn't Gronk or Graham.

Your second statement directly goes with my earlier point. Rivers is comfortable with "his guys" and those are the guys he throws too most of the time. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I am pretty sure on a lot of those snaps Green was asked to block.

Coaches and quarterbacks are weird, look at the way some of them use their guys. Matt Stafford seems to forget about Golden Tate when Calvin Johnson is healthy, even though Tate is a very good receiver. Andy Reid doesn't use Kelce or Bowe correctly at all. He even seems to mess up his usage of Charles too from time to time. The Colts continue to run Richardson out there like he good. Why doesn't Tim Wright get more snaps in New England, he only seems to produce every time he is in and targeted?

Every one of your points backs me up. If he was so talented, they would change their offense to incorporate him. The fact that he doesn't means that they either don't think he's super talented, or they are mis-using him, which is exactly what I said.

Why isn't he one of Rivers' "guys"? This is his 3rd year with him, it isn't like they need time getting comfortable with each other. Is it because he isn't as good as Royal? It is because he's a better blocker than receiver? Neither would be a positive for him.

So you're arguing that the coaches aren't using him properly- that's what I said was one of the possibilities. What I disagreed with is this notion that there are "too many mouths to feed". If that's the case, then he must not be very good, because he isn't competing with a bunch of world-beaters.

 

[zamboni]

The lack of use of Green this year seems to indicate that something happened when the season started. IIRC in the offseason, McCoy said they need to get the ball in his hands more, yet it hasn't happened. Granted, Gates' finding the fountain of youth was a part of it, but something must have happened in practice early on.

In any event, the passing game hasn't done much in recent weeks, and perhaps Gates is hitting the wall (again). Maybe we'll see more Green down the stretch.

 

[msudaisy26]

IMO the "too many mouths to feed" argument is pretty weak at this point. SD isn't exactly bursting at the seems with receiving talent, if he was as great as many thought he'd certainly be able to wrestle a few more targets away from the all-mighty Eddie Royal.

It seems he's either not as good as advertised right now or the coaches are incompetent. Probably a combination of both.

It isn't like he is a wide receiver and gets on the field in the 3 and 4 receiver sets. He is a tight end and I don't watch a lot of Charger games, but I don't think they use a whole lot of 2 tight end sets

If they felt that he was one of their best receiving options, don't you think that they would play more 2 TE sets? Other teams certainly dbviously more snaps would be better, but that doesn't explain everything either- he's played 227 offensive snaps this year but only has 17 targets. They don't throw to him even when he's in the game.

To you first question the answer is no. Most coaches run their sets, the ones they are comfortable with. They aren't going to change their entire offense unless they guy is an unbelievable talent. Green is a good talent he isn't Gronk or Graham.

Your second statement directly goes with my earlier point. Rivers is comfortable with "his guys" and those are the guys he throws too most of the time. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I am pretty sure on a lot of those snaps Green was asked to block.

Coaches and quarterbacks are weird, look at the way some of them use their guys. Matt Stafford seems to forget about Golden Tate when Calvin Johnson is healthy, even though Tate is a very good receiver. Andy Reid doesn't use Kelce or Bowe correctly at all. He even seems to mess up his usage of Charles too from time to time. The Colts continue to run Richardson out there like he good. Why doesn't Tim Wright get more snaps in New England, he only seems to produce every time he is in and targeted?

Every one of your points backs me up. If he was so talented, they would change their offense to incorporate him. The fact that he doesn't means that they either don't think he's super talented, or they are mis-using him, which is exactly what I said.Why isn't he one of Rivers' "guys"? This is his 3rd year with him, it isn't like they need time getting comfortable with each other. Is it because he isn't as good as Royal? It is because he's a better blocker than receiver? Neither would be a positive for him.

So you're arguing that the coaches aren't using him properly- that's what I said was one of the possibilities. What I disagreed with is this notion that there are "too many mouths to feed". If that's the case, then he must not be very good, because he isn't competing with a bunch of world-beaters.

None of my points make your point. You just didn't read what I wrote. There are too many mouths to feed in San Diego.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

None of my points make your point. You just didn't read what I wrote. There are too many mouths to feed in San Diego.

There aren't really. Allen, Royal, Floyd and even Gates at this point -- none of them are "have to get the ball to them" type guys. They're all just guys taking advantage of playing with an elite QB.

I think Green is better than that, but the Chargers have been great under McCoy overall so you can't really question them too much.

Time will tell.

 

[humpback]

IMO the "too many mouths to feed" argument is pretty weak at this point. SD isn't exactly bursting at the seems with receiving talent, if he was as great as many thought he'd certainly be able to wrestle a few more targets away from the all-mighty Eddie Royal.

It seems he's either not as good as advertised right now or the coaches are incompetent. Probably a combination of both.

It isn't like he is a wide receiver and gets on the field in the 3 and 4 receiver sets. He is a tight end and I don't watch a lot of Charger games, but I don't think they use a whole lot of 2 tight end sets

If they felt that he was one of their best receiving options, don't you think that they would play more 2 TE sets? Other teams certainly dbviously more snaps would be better, but that doesn't explain everything either- he's played 227 offensive snaps this year but only has 17 targets. They don't throw to him even when he's in the game.

To you first question the answer is no. Most coaches run their sets, the ones they are comfortable with. They aren't going to change their entire offense unless they guy is an unbelievable talent. Green is a good talent he isn't Gronk or Graham.

Your second statement directly goes with my earlier point. Rivers is comfortable with "his guys" and those are the guys he throws too most of the time. I don't have the stats in front of me, but I am pretty sure on a lot of those snaps Green was asked to block.

Coaches and quarterbacks are weird, look at the way some of them use their guys. Matt Stafford seems to forget about Golden Tate when Calvin Johnson is healthy, even though Tate is a very good receiver. Andy Reid doesn't use Kelce or Bowe correctly at all. He even seems to mess up his usage of Charles too from time to time. The Colts continue to run Richardson out there like he good. Why doesn't Tim Wright get more snaps in New England, he only seems to produce every time he is in and targeted?

Every one of your points backs me up. If he was so talented, they would change their offense to incorporate him. The fact that he doesn't means that they either don't think he's super talented, or they are mis-using him, which is exactly what I said.Why isn't he one of Rivers' "guys"? This is his 3rd year with him, it isn't like they need time getting comfortable with each other. Is it because he isn't as good as Royal? It is because he's a better blocker than receiver? Neither would be a positive for him.

So you're arguing that the coaches aren't using him properly- that's what I said was one of the possibilities. What I disagreed with is this notion that there are "too many mouths to feed". If that's the case, then he must not be very good, because he isn't competing with a bunch of world-beaters.

None of my points make your point. You just didn't read what I wrote. There are too many mouths to feed in San Diego.

Yeah, pretty much the exact opposite of this, but you're free to your opinion.

 

[Milkman]

None of my points make your point. You just didn't read what I wrote. There are too many mouths to feed in San Diego.

There aren't really. Allen, Royal, Floyd and even Gates at this point -- none of them are "have to get the ball to them" type guys. They're all just guys taking advantage of playing with an elite QB.

I think Green is better than that, but the Chargers have been great under McCoy overall so you can't really question them too much.

Time will tell.

If they don't use him next year he's gone. He doesn't want to just run 4 routes a game and block the rest of the time he's in the game. I'm holding him all next year and seeing where he ends up. I don't have a lot of confidence that SD is going to use him much. I wish he would push for a trade but that's not going to happen.

 

[Tau837]

None of my points make your point. You just didn't read what I wrote. There are too many mouths to feed in San Diego.

There aren't really. Allen, Royal, Floyd and even Gates at this point -- none of them are "have to get the ball to them" type guys. They're all just guys taking advantage of playing with an elite QB.

I think Green is better than that, but the Chargers have been great under McCoy overall so you can't really question them too much.

Time will tell.

Have the Chargers been great under McCoy? They certainly finished strong last season. But they still finished last season at 10-8 overall. Their wins this year are over JAX (1-10), OAK (1-10) x2, NYJ (2-8), STL (4-7), BUF (5-5), and SEA (7-4). That is a collective record of 21-54. I don't think this Chargers team is as good as its record. And with @BAL, NE, DEN, @SF, @KC to close the season, I doubt they will make the playoffs. Would anyone here be surprised if they lost all 5 of those games and finished with a losing record? I wouldn't.

McCoy and his staff have certainly been an upgrade over the previous coaching staff. But they have done some very puzzling things that seem pretty hard to justify. Green's usage both last season and this season is one of them. I certainly don't think they have earned a pass on tough questions.

That said, I think what has likely happened this season is that circumstances have limited Green's opportunities:

1. Gates has played well enough to earn/keep most of the TE snaps and routes (3x as many routes as Green).

2. Allen's role is locked in, and Floyd and Royal have played well enough to keep them from splitting Green out as a WR more often.

3. Gates and the WRs have stayed healthy.

4. McCoy wants to be a successful running team but has a terrible run blocking team (#31 in NFL this season per PFF). While Green is not a great run blocker, he is far better than Gates.

Barring injury, I don't see any reason to expect this to change this season. And, really, no reason it will change next season, either, unless Gates finally falls off enough in his play to lose snaps/routes.

 

[msudaisy26]

None of my points make your point. You just didn't read what I wrote. There are too many mouths to feed in San Diego.

There aren't really. Allen, Royal, Floyd and even Gates at this point -- none of them are "have to get the ball to them" type guys. They're all just guys taking advantage of playing with an elite QB.

I think Green is better than that, but the Chargers have been great under McCoy overall so you can't really question them too much.

Time will tell.

I agree with you that they aren't elite options, but they have all earned a role and Rivers seems to favor his guys. Floyd has been there for years, Allen was his guy last year when a lot of the receiving options were banged up, Gates has been their for years too. It is hard for a guy like Green to get in there when he didn't play much his first year, he played some his second year and this year he is basically a 6th offensive lineman on a team that wants to run the ball.

 

[zamboni]

Bumping this in light of the Gates thread going around, but focusing on Green.

With the season wrapping up, I'm looking for some dynasty stashes and thoughts are coming around (again) to Green.

He's battling a concussion, so who knows if we'll see him again this year. But the bigger question is whether Gates, who started the year strong and dropping off again down the stretch, is is finally opening the door for Green next year. Green's usage has been even less than last year, which gives some pause as to whether he is even viewed as the future anymore by the coaching regime.

What are others thinking here with regard to Green's dynasty value?

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I've continued to hold Green in my dynasty though it has been a dead spot for quite a while, mainly because the upside is there. There just isn't much at the TE position to get excited about after the top 3-4. I'm guessing that he will be a top 10 TE starting next year, and may crack into the top 5. Gates will be 35 prior to next season and I think the Chargers will move on from him. Floyd is old, (34 before next season), and frail as well. Allen is nice as a possession receiver, but IMO they need Green as a height/speed mismatch. Why he hasn't been used much this year is a real mystery to me. My only thought is that he doesn't have many packages and specific targets made for him. Idk. It's baffling when you see Gates lumbering down the field.

 

[msudaisy26]

Until Gates is gone, or Green is on a different team it is going to be hold or buy low.

 

[zamboni]

Gates will be 35 prior to next season and I think the Chargers will move on from him.

I'm not so sure about this. I can see Gates sticking around for another year, sort of an agreed-upon farewell tour.

 

[cstu]

Gates will be 35 prior to next season and I think the Chargers will move on from him.

I'm not so sure about this. I can see Gates sticking around for another year, sort of an agreed-upon farewell tour.

His salary is $5.9M next year, way too much for a farewell tour.

 

[zamboni]

Gates will be 35 prior to next season and I think the Chargers will move on from him.

I'm not so sure about this. I can see Gates sticking around for another year, sort of an agreed-upon farewell tour.

His salary is $5.9M next year, way too much for a farewell tour.

They could always ask him to restructure.

 

[Milkman]

Onetime please!

Time to get this train rolling.

 

[Tau837]

I am a big Green fan. However, I am skeptical he will be a strong fantasy play this year for these reasons:

1. His lack of usage last year by the same head coach. Green had just 29 targets last season, despite producing well with them. Was it McCoy or Wisenhunt? Will Reich make the difference?

2. The presence of Gates. Gates has been Rivers' primary target for several years and had 113 targets last year. And, while he appears to have lost a step, he still produced last season, with 77 receptions (#4 among TEs) and 872 receiving yards (#3 among TEs). Even if the Chargers run plenty of 2 TE sets, Green's opportunities will probably be limited unless Gates gets hurt and misses time.

3. With Donald Brown in place of Ronnie Brown, and with another year of experience together for the OL, the running game should be even better this season. Last year, the Chargers had 544 pass attempts (#22 in NFL) and 486 rushing attempts (#6 in NFL). If there is any change, it seems more likely to be fewer pass attempts and more rushing attempts, given their success last year and the addition of Brown.

4. The defense should also be better this year, which also could lead to fewer pass attempts and more running.

5. Mathews, Woodhead, and Brown are all quality receiving RBs, and they will likely combine for a lot of targets. Allen may be better with a year of experience, and playing heavy snaps from the start of the season. Floyd is back. All of this seems to further cap Green's opportunities.

Quoting my last post on this since so many seem surprised that Green is not being featured. In addition to the reasons I cited here, there are two more:

1. Green has been the best rated blocking TE for the Chargers this preseason, whereas Gates is known to be a poor blocker. This continues a trend from last year, when PFF graded Green at +3.8 and Gates at -6.9 on run blocking. This suggests that if Gates and Green are in the game in two TE sets, if one is asked to block and the other is asked to run a route, Green will likely be asked to block. So not only will his snap count be constrained (barring injury to Gates), the percentage of the time he runs routes on his snaps will also be constrained to some degree.

2. The Chargers added David Johnson in the offseason, and he is known to be a very good run blocker. So he will likely eat into the rotation of TE snaps, given the team's desire to establish a strong running game.

Basically, if Gates stays healthy, it's WTNY for Green.

Revisiting these previous posts.

1. OK, we can now safely conclude the problem wasn't Whisenhunt. Two years in with this coaching staff, and he has 57 targets in 30 games. Until something significant changes -- like a head coaching change, a QB change, loss of other key targets -- there is no reason to expect Green to suddenly start drawing enough targets to be fantasy relevant.

2. Gates continues to be Rivers' primary TE target, and is second on the team with 77 targets this season. Here is where Gates currently ranks among NFL TEs this season: #6 in targets, #6T in receptions, #8 in receiving yards, #14 in YAC, #3T (with Graham) in TDs, #4 in drop rate (minimum 30 targets). Bottom line: he has been great.

I see people speculating that the Chargers will part ways with Gates after this season. Unless Gates decides to retire this offseason, IMO there is no question he will be back. It may require him to restructure, but, if so, that will happen. IMO he will be back until he decides not to come back or until he proves in an extended period of playing time that he can no longer get it done.

3. The running game has been terrible this year, and the Chargers are just #21 in rushing attempts, after finishing last season at #6. Two things on this:

a. Despite this, they are still just #19 in the NFL in passing attempts. This limits the targets available to spread around to guys like Green, who are not among the top targets in the offense.

b. It seems likely a big part of this decline is due to the OL, particularly the fact that the Chargers have been forced to use 5 centers this year, and also by RB injuries (Mathews, Woodhead, Brown). It seems likely the Chargers will attempt to address both OL and RB this offseason and will attempt to get back to a more balanced offense by running more often next season. So there isn't any reason to expect passing attempts to go up.

4. As predicted, the defense is better this year. Last year, it was #11 in points allowed but #23 in yards allowed. This season, it is #12 in points allowed and #9 in yards allowed. This despite a fair number of injuries. The Chargers have some young players who should improve, and they will probably seek to do something to improve the DL in the offseason. So there is no reason to think the defense will slip to the point that it drives up passing attempts.

5. Woodhead hasn't even played this season, so it could have been worse for the rest of the targets in the offense. Last season, Chargers RBs collectively averaged 8.1 targets per game. This season, they have only averaged 6.5 targets per game. Woodhead should be back next year, so the RBs will likely be closer to 2013 targets than 2014 targets.

6. As expected, Green has been a better run blocker than Gates, and it's not close (Green -0.9 and Gates -10.8 per PFF; only TE David Johnson at +0.1 has been better). One outcome of this is that Green has only run 126 pass routes in his 284 snaps. Meanwhile, Gates has run 426 pass routes in his 601 snaps. Not only is Gates getting more than twice the snaps, he is running more than three times as many pass routes. Again, no reason to think that will change.

7. It isn't just Gates and Green. TEs John Phillips and David Johnson have combined for 315 snaps this year, which is more than Green's 284. To put it another way, Green has only gotten 23.7% of the TE snaps in the offense this season.

Sure, Gates is old. Floyd is old. But both are still effective. There is no logical reason to expect things to change drastically for Green next season. And that's what it would take -- drastic change -- for him to become fantasy relevant.

And I say all that as a dynasty owner who has been sitting on Green since early in the 2013 season. I wish it wasn't true, but it is.

 

[msudaisy26]

Great post above, but just to correct you on one thing. Allen has 114 targets this year

 

[Tau837]

Great post above, but just to correct you on one thing. Allen has 114 targets this year

Thanks, I fixed it above. I read the wrong column. (Though PFF has him with 105 targets.)

 

[Milkman]

I am a big Green fan. However, I am skeptical he will be a strong fantasy play this year for these reasons:

1. His lack of usage last year by the same head coach. Green had just 29 targets last season, despite producing well with them. Was it McCoy or Wisenhunt? Will Reich make the difference?

2. The presence of Gates. Gates has been Rivers' primary target for several years and had 113 targets last year. And, while he appears to have lost a step, he still produced last season, with 77 receptions (#4 among TEs) and 872 receiving yards (#3 among TEs). Even if the Chargers run plenty of 2 TE sets, Green's opportunities will probably be limited unless Gates gets hurt and misses time.

3. With Donald Brown in place of Ronnie Brown, and with another year of experience together for the OL, the running game should be even better this season. Last year, the Chargers had 544 pass attempts (#22 in NFL) and 486 rushing attempts (#6 in NFL). If there is any change, it seems more likely to be fewer pass attempts and more rushing attempts, given their success last year and the addition of Brown.

4. The defense should also be better this year, which also could lead to fewer pass attempts and more running.

5. Mathews, Woodhead, and Brown are all quality receiving RBs, and they will likely combine for a lot of targets. Allen may be better with a year of experience, and playing heavy snaps from the start of the season. Floyd is back. All of this seems to further cap Green's opportunities.

Quoting my last post on this since so many seem surprised that Green is not being featured. In addition to the reasons I cited here, there are two more:

1. Green has been the best rated blocking TE for the Chargers this preseason, whereas Gates is known to be a poor blocker. This continues a trend from last year, when PFF graded Green at +3.8 and Gates at -6.9 on run blocking. This suggests that if Gates and Green are in the game in two TE sets, if one is asked to block and the other is asked to run a route, Green will likely be asked to block. So not only will his snap count be constrained (barring injury to Gates), the percentage of the time he runs routes on his snaps will also be constrained to some degree.

2. The Chargers added David Johnson in the offseason, and he is known to be a very good run blocker. So he will likely eat into the rotation of TE snaps, given the team's desire to establish a strong running game.

Basically, if Gates stays healthy, it's WTNY for Green.

Revisiting these previous posts.

1. OK, we can now safely conclude the problem wasn't Whisenhunt. Two years in with this coaching staff, and he has 57 targets in 30 games. Until something significant changes -- like a head coaching change, a QB change, loss of other key targets -- there is no reason to expect Green to suddenly start drawing enough targets to be fantasy relevant.

2. Gates continues to be Rivers' primary TE target, and is second on the team with 77 targets this season. Here is where Gates currently ranks among NFL TEs this season: #6 in targets, #6T in receptions, #8 in receiving yards, #14 in YAC, #3T (with Graham) in TDs, #4 in drop rate (minimum 30 targets). Bottom line: he has been great.

I see people speculating that the Chargers will part ways with Gates after this season. Unless Gates decides to retire this offseason, IMO there is no question he will be back. It may require him to restructure, but, if so, that will happen. IMO he will be back until he decides not to come back or until he proves in an extended period of playing time that he can no longer get it done.

3. The running game has been terrible this year, and the Chargers are just #21 in rushing attempts, after finishing last season at #6. Two things on this:

a. Despite this, they are still just #19 in the NFL in passing attempts. This limits the targets available to spread around to guys like Green, who are not among the top targets in the offense.

b. It seems likely a big part of this decline is due to the OL, particularly the fact that the Chargers have been forced to use 5 centers this year, and also by RB injuries (Mathews, Woodhead, Brown). It seems likely the Chargers will attempt to address both OL and RB this offseason and will attempt to get back to a more balanced offense by running more often next season. So there isn't any reason to expect passing attempts to go up.

4. As predicted, the defense is better this year. Last year, it was #11 in points allowed but #23 in yards allowed. This season, it is #12 in points allowed and #9 in yards allowed. This despite a fair number of injuries. The Chargers have some young players who should improve, and they will probably seek to do something to improve the DL in the offseason. So there is no reason to think the defense will slip to the point that it drives up passing attempts.

5. Woodhead hasn't even played this season, so it could have been worse for the rest of the targets in the offense. Last season, Chargers RBs collectively averaged 8.1 targets per game. This season, they have only averaged 6.5 targets per game. Woodhead should be back next year, so the RBs will likely be closer to 2013 targets than 2014 targets.

6. As expected, Green has been a better run blocker than Gates, and it's not close (Green -0.9 and Gates -10.8 per PFF; only TE David Johnson at +0.1 has been better). One outcome of this is that Green has only run 126 pass routes in his 284 snaps. Meanwhile, Gates has run 426 pass routes in his 601 snaps. Not only is Gates getting more than twice the snaps, he is running more than three times as many pass routes. Again, no reason to think that will change.

7. It isn't just Gates and Green. TEs John Phillips and David Johnson have combined for 315 snaps this year, which is more than Green's 284. To put it another way, Green has only gotten 23.7% of the TE snaps in the offense this season.

Sure, Gates is old. Floyd is old. But both are still effective. There is no logical reason to expect things to change drastically for Green next season. And that's what it would take -- drastic change -- for him to become fantasy relevant.

And I say all that as a dynasty owner who has been sitting on Green since early in the 2013 season. I wish it wasn't true, but it is.

What happens if they lose the next 3 games to make it 4 loses in a row? End the year 8-8 and Gates continues to be terrible. You still don't see any significant changes? I do. I own Green though so maybe I'm being biased.