Touchdown There
Footballguy
Dolphins go out of their way to limit Lamar touches. Doubt that changes.
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Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Evil G
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Slider
Footballguy
Comparing Lamar to Tatum is way off. While Tatum benefitted from the Shanahan/zone blocking that took the league by surprise back when any back in Denver was great, Lamar is doing his today on an ok team with nothing special going.
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Englishteacher
Footballguy
Hearing some mention of Miami going with Gurley if he's there. I'm a little scared.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Contract year for Miller so Miami would be right about grabbing another RB. I feel like they should add a skill position so if WR is not available to their liking Gurley could be a good fit and give them a great committee.
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Just following the authors analysis.
Looking at the list provided sorted by WPA also shows that Damien Williams was 7th overall in 2014 in WPA with .62 compared to Millers 3rd overall of .78
This suggests to me that Miami's rushing offense was very effective in Win Probability Added in 2014 because it had two RB finish in the top 10 of this metric. If by this measurement Miller is elite then I guess Damien Williams is close to elite too.
When I sort the list by success rate at AFA without the arbitrary cut off of 100 rushes and 30 receptions, I found that Damien Williams is 4th overall on this list with a 50.7% success rate, Miller is 6th overall with a 50.4% success rate.
The main thing I take away from this is that Miami's rushing offense was very effective last season. Either that or Damien Williams is a better player than I thought. Either way the Miami offense did not lose much effectiveness by playing Williams compared to Miller by these measurements.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Is this guy the next Rudi Johnson or Frank Gore? A guy that puts up top 12 seasons year after year, but always seems to be under valued. I am just playing the other side of the fence.
Interesting thread on Lamar Miller
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/382p5s/could_lamar_miller_potentially_be_a_top5_rb_in/
Fun fact: Miller scored a 6 on the Wonderlic. Giving georg013 a run for his money.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/382p5s/could_lamar_miller_potentially_be_a_top5_rb_in/
Fun fact: Miller scored a 6 on the Wonderlic. Giving georg013 a run for his money.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
No respect.
gianmarco
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
Yes, so lets have him on a snap count, bring in a 2nd string hack and punt instead. MIA coaching staff is full of geniuses.
TZMarkie
Footballguy
You know, I said this to my buddy 3 years ago, and this preseason it looks to be more of the same.
(he is a die hard Dolphins fan, through thick and thin)
I told him "It seems as though Miami is just content now, year after year, to try and sign and field a bunch of mediocre talent".
Its like they just want to dole out money in a bunch of directions, acquiring and putting on the field a bunch of so-so talent.
Then every time they get someone in a good position, and he seems to be doing well, they "put him on a count", or they just don't really cut them loose. Or worse yet, they get rid of him.
Letting Charles Clay go, was not a brilliant move in my opinion. I know the guy was hoping for a huge payday, which he eventually got, but Clay was familiar with the system and did a good job considering what was around him.
The continuous signing of Brian Hartline (up until this year), last year getting Knowshon Moreno, this year getting Greg Jennings....etc. etc. the list goes on.
(I will never understand the Greg Jennings signing, especially after they got Stills, and ALSO Parker in the draft)
I know the draft was later, but are you telling me they weren't intending on signing a WR?
Lamar Miller was pretty good last year, when given the chance.
I don't know how Ajayai will work out, but I see no reason not to let Miller run hard and often again this season, and see what develops.
I do think the Suh signing may have been a step in the right direction though. Who knows, are they trying to turn the organization around?
Personally, I like underdogs but some of their moves in the last number of years look right on par with Cleveland.
TZM
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This is exactly the lazy analysis that I've come to expect from Pro Football Focus. No context at all. How many attempts? Sample size is important. And how did this compare to the other running backs?
So what counts as a succesfull run? Here's their definition:
- "In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
- If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
- If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%."
Here are the career 1st down conversion running rates on 3rd/4th & short for other prominent running backs:
Le'Veon Bell - 77%
DeMarco Murray - 72%
LeSean McCoy - 73%
Marshawn Lynch - 58%, 17 of 20 for an 85% success rate last year
Matt Forte - 58%
Adrian Peterson - 71%
Jamaal Charles - 67%
Arian Foster - 66%
Frank Gore - 56%
Joique Bell - 81% (21 for 26)
Trent Richardson - 63%
Tatum Bell - 50%
None of this indicates that Miller is a bad running back. That 60% success rate (only 15 of 25) places him ahead of some very good running backs. It's just not very meaningful.
I've found the Dolphins to be interesting from a fantasy perspective for the past few years as they have potential to produce several undervalued FF players ever year and seem to do so, although never producing anyone elite. So I've kind of followed them closely. They did a good job getting the most out of Reggie Bush. What they're doing with Lamar Miller doesn't seem that odd to me. Knowshon looked pretty solid last year. I think Damien Williams could be a better RB than Miller. Rolling the dice on a 5th round RB isn't crazy. That stuff all makes sense. If I was a Miller owner, I'd be pretty annoyed, but luckily I'm not.
I thought the Greg Jennings signing made sense. Stills and Jennings on the outside with the slow and small Landry playing the slot. I didn't understand the Parker draft pick, but I'm guessing it was a BPA kind of thing or maybe they plan to let Jennings go after this year - I know rookie WRs have produced recently, but grooming them for a year is the prudent way to go rather than banking on them producing in week 1. Regardless, things look good for them this year. Jennings isn't actually old yet for a WR so he should have a good season left in the tank. I don't think you can draft any Miami WR with confidence due to all the mouths to feed, but if you get one not named Landry that somehow gets 120 targets, you'll do very well for yourself. And if Tannehill runs a little bit more, he'll be a very good pick.
Letting Clay go made sense. He's not an elite TE and they apparently/hopefully knew that when they went out looking for a replacement. They didn't let him go until they signed Jordan Cameron, who is a better receiving TE, although he carries an obvious injury risk. I guess they are comfortable with Dion Sims who was a serviceable replacement player. Plus, you say Clay was familiar with the system, but the system was only in place for one year. Maybe Lazor thought Cameron was a better fit for what he was trying to do. So they get him for 2/$15M while Clay signs 5/$38M.
So I disagree that they are just randomly throwing money around. They aren't the best run organization, but they aren't the worst. Keeping Philbin around for so damn long was terrible. And I wouldn't have paid Suh that much money, but I guess time will tell if that signing pays off.
This year I think Miller is an interesting FF player. Going around RB15 he sure appears to be quite a good value after finishing 9th last year. I'd definitely handcuff him with Williams if he's able to hold off Ajayi for the #2 spot in camp.
This is very interesting, as I haven't heard anyone talking about Williams this year. Obviously you're high on him, but what do you think are his realistic chances of being the #2? I feel like he's approaching afterthought status with Ajayi in the fold.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
You may not have access to that info, but you made some assumptions based on that % and unfortunately it's just wrong. If you have a subscription here, you can pull the play-by-play for Miller and see all the 3rd and 1 situations. Here they are.
1 12:27 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 6 rushed for 2 yards (first down)
2 13:51 7 - 10 3rd-and-1 opp 38 rushed for 1 yards (first down)
2 0:12 0 - 9 3rd-and-1 own 35 rushed for 6 yards (first down)
4 6:16 24 - 14 3rd-and-1 own 43 rushed for 6 yards (first down)
2 2:33 7 - 3 3rd-and-1 own 45 rushed for 6 yards (first down)
3 3:06 17 - 6 3rd-and-1 opp 33 rushed for 30 yards (first down)
1 10:23 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 28 rushed for 0 yards
2 10:34 0 - 14 3rd-and-1 own 17 rushed for 2 yards (first down)
4 14:59 14 - 17 3rd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN
1 6:42 0 - 0 3rd-and-1 opp 18 rushed for -1 yards
2 12:17 3 - 7 3rd-and-1 opp 12 rushed for 10 yards (first down)
Out of 11 attempts, he converted on 9 of them.
9 / 11 = 81.8%, or 82%.
Apparently that was highest in the NFL.
Looking at 3rd and 4th downs as you did is helpful and is another metric, but for the metric that they specifically described, there was wrong about it. I'm sure they have the #'s for other RBs as well. It wouldn't be that hard to pick the RBs you listed there and look at their play logs and see what their %'s were as well, but I would assume that they are correct that Miller was highest in the league in that specific metric.
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dickey moe
Fingerpicker
What's his ADP right now? I'd think If I could snag him mid- to late 3rd or later I'd be happy.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Very late third right now accord to this: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=standard&year=2015&teams=12&view=graph&pos=rb
I can't vouch for the accuracy, but thanks to overreaction to Ajay, Miller represents pretty good value at that price
I can't vouch for the accuracy, but thanks to overreaction to Ajay, Miller represents pretty good value at that price
georg013
Footballguy
Awww. How cute. I'm on your mind.
plastik
Footballguy
Current MFL ADP has him at 28 overall, an early 3rd, but I've often seen him as early as 2.11 or 2.12.
plastik
Footballguy
I've posted a few comments on him and am holding him in some deeper dynasty leagues. I'm a Phins homer and was impressed with Williams last year, particularly as a receiver. As a runner his YPC was low, but in my memory that wasn't all on him and I think he was used a bit in short yardage situations. I also posted in the Adjayi thread a while back that I don't think it's a given that he beats out Williams as the primary backup for 2015, but I'm in the vast minority on that one.
Dawg Pound 69
Footballguy
Curious how much weight he has added. Initially it was 7 pounds, from 218 to 225. Recent reports say 15 pounds, which would put him at 233. If true the bad (less speed) would seem to outweigh the good (more power).
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Strong RB 2
lod01
Footballguy
They have to. His contract is up at the end of the year. He leaves if they don't give him the ball. Some team will be smart enough to know what the fins don't. Then they are going to have to pay him when he puts up big #s.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
UM alum here, Dolphin fan, I loved Miller when he was at UM and have enjoyed watching him progress. I don't view him as a complete back. He disappears in games, now whether that is due to coaching is up for debate but people who draft him get very frustrated in games when he isn't on the field or getting many touches.
That could change but in his last 31 starts over the last 2 seasons(pretty good from inj standpoint) he is avg right about 12-13 carries per game. And when you look at the game logs http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MillLa01/gamelog// you see he is very consistent. The Phins don't view him as a guy who will close games out for them and they want to have that in their arsenal. Enter the Ajayi who despite an injury riddled past is going to be given a good shot to carry the ball somewhere in the range of what Miller is currently getting as the RB2. I don't see more touches by Miller but I also don't see him losing touches.
People will say that Ajayi is likely to get hurt leaving Miller alone...well he kind of had that last season when Moreno went down who btw looked better than Miller and Miami was eager to have him pound the ball in the 2nd half, go back and watch early film last year before the injury. I think folks need to be realistic about the amount of touches Miller will get and how many subpar games to boot. I have seen him go in as early as the 2nd round, that seems awful high IMHO.
That could change but in his last 31 starts over the last 2 seasons(pretty good from inj standpoint) he is avg right about 12-13 carries per game. And when you look at the game logs http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MillLa01/gamelog// you see he is very consistent. The Phins don't view him as a guy who will close games out for them and they want to have that in their arsenal. Enter the Ajayi who despite an injury riddled past is going to be given a good shot to carry the ball somewhere in the range of what Miller is currently getting as the RB2. I don't see more touches by Miller but I also don't see him losing touches.
People will say that Ajayi is likely to get hurt leaving Miller alone...well he kind of had that last season when Moreno went down who btw looked better than Miller and Miami was eager to have him pound the ball in the 2nd half, go back and watch early film last year before the injury. I think folks need to be realistic about the amount of touches Miller will get and how many subpar games to boot. I have seen him go in as early as the 2nd round, that seems awful high IMHO.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Miller packed on 15 lbs of muscle! He may perform less with more carries but if he is able to get 20+ touches a game he will still put up quality rb 2 numbers.
Jack White
Footballguy
Not sure Miller is a 20+ touch type of guy.
And if Ajayi is any good, he will eat into that workload.
Miami gave touches to Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas last year because it knows Miller is not a workhorse.
And if Ajayi is any good, he will eat into that workload.
Miami gave touches to Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas last year because it knows Miller is not a workhorse.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I don't trust this guy in the third. I just can't pull the trigger on him at that price. Personally I'd rather Spiller (who might be just as much if not more risk) but just from my own eyes I prefer him, this assumes ppr.
Jack White
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
We will have to see if 224 is a good playing weight for him. Players that add weight sometimes lose some quickness or burst.
plastik
Footballguy
It seems silly to me that everyone is piling on Miller's workload, where there is nothing concrete coming from anywhere on it and it's all just speculation at this point. If it remains the same, he's shown he can put up low end RB1 numbers. And I for one expect his usage to rise at least slightly. In year two of Lazor's offense, the pace and total snaps should increase, and I'd expect more running plays in total. Miami was bottom 10 in rushing attempts last year, and middle of the pack in total plays. Meanwhile Miller's going in to his first year as the uncontested starter, coming off a great performance in 2014, entering a contract year, and the both the passing game and defense in Miami should be improved. I think both total offensive snaps and rushing attempts go up for Miami this year. Everyone points to Ajayi as a huge knock on Miller's value, but we haven't seen anything from him yet nor do we know what sort of role he'll have.
Here were Miami's 2014 rushing stats (sorry for the terrible formatting):
att yds ypc TD
Lamar Miller 216 1,099 5.1 8
Ryan Tannehill 56 311 5.6 1
Daniel Thomas 44 168 3.8 2
Knowshon Moreno 31 148 4.8 1
Damien Williams 36 122 3.4 0
Mike Wallace 4 16 4 0
LaMichael James 3 9 3 0
Rishard Matthews 1 3 3 0
Orleans Darkwa 4 2 0.5 0
Matt Moore 2 -2 -1 0
Jarvis Landry 2 -4 -2 0
399 1872 12
If total rushing plays increased to a modest 445 (which would have only been 12th most in the NFL last year), things could be divided something like this:
Lamar Miller 230 1,127 4.9 8
Ryan Tannehill 55 302 5.5 1
Jay Ajayi 110 462 4.2 2
Damien Williams 35 161 4.6 1
Other RBs 10 35 3.5 0
WRs 5 15 5 0
445 2102 12
In this last projection, to keep things modest, I dropped efficiency numbers for the top four rushers (while they could just as easily increase) and kept TDs the same (ditto). This obviously hinges on projecting Ajayi for just 110 carries, much less than I suppose many think he'll total, but there just doesn't seem to be much evidence for such an outcome. To me it looks like a case of 'rookie fever', hyping up Ajayi. With Miller's ADP at somewhere between RB15-18 in the mid 3rd, Miller is the kind of player that I'll gamble on, as if he turns out to be a low end RB1 (or better if the O makes big strides) that I paid a middling RB2 price for, that's a big win. Anyway, my two cents...
Here were Miami's 2014 rushing stats (sorry for the terrible formatting):
att yds ypc TD
Lamar Miller 216 1,099 5.1 8
Ryan Tannehill 56 311 5.6 1
Daniel Thomas 44 168 3.8 2
Knowshon Moreno 31 148 4.8 1
Damien Williams 36 122 3.4 0
Mike Wallace 4 16 4 0
LaMichael James 3 9 3 0
Rishard Matthews 1 3 3 0
Orleans Darkwa 4 2 0.5 0
Matt Moore 2 -2 -1 0
Jarvis Landry 2 -4 -2 0
399 1872 12
If total rushing plays increased to a modest 445 (which would have only been 12th most in the NFL last year), things could be divided something like this:
Lamar Miller 230 1,127 4.9 8
Ryan Tannehill 55 302 5.5 1
Jay Ajayi 110 462 4.2 2
Damien Williams 35 161 4.6 1
Other RBs 10 35 3.5 0
WRs 5 15 5 0
445 2102 12
In this last projection, to keep things modest, I dropped efficiency numbers for the top four rushers (while they could just as easily increase) and kept TDs the same (ditto). This obviously hinges on projecting Ajayi for just 110 carries, much less than I suppose many think he'll total, but there just doesn't seem to be much evidence for such an outcome. To me it looks like a case of 'rookie fever', hyping up Ajayi. With Miller's ADP at somewhere between RB15-18 in the mid 3rd, Miller is the kind of player that I'll gamble on, as if he turns out to be a low end RB1 (or better if the O makes big strides) that I paid a middling RB2 price for, that's a big win. Anyway, my two cents...
