Lamont Jordan, time to BUY! (1 Viewer)

[KiddLattimer]

Yes he plays for the Raiders. Yes he has done nothing so far and was likely a first or early second round pick in most leagues. But hear me out... NOW the time to trade for Jordan.

Supporting Cast

I am in no way a fan of Aaron Brooks, but he is much better than Andrew Walter and can at least keep defenses somewhat honest (or at least keep them from putting 9 men in the box every play). He should be ready to come back in the next few weeks.

Historical Performance

The teams that shut Jordan down were San Diego, Baltimore and Denver... not exactly cupcake defenses. When he did face a weak D he posted 128yds and a TD.

Schedule Outlook

The Raiders' schedule ahead looks much easier with Arizona, Seattle, KC (2X), Houston, Cincy, and St Louis all ahead. The only bad matchups remaining would be Denver, SD and Pit in mid-season. The fantasy playoff schedule is @ Cin, StL, KC who rank 25th, 23rd and 24th respectively on rush defense. (@ NYJ for week 17 finals - 28th best rush D).

Injury History

He has had some back trouble which is ALWAYS worth keeping an eye on, but Fargas is dinged also, so the possibility of him losing his job are unlikely.

Seems to me that the time and price are right for floating a lowball offer out there for Jordan, and the best part is... he won't cost you but a mere bag of shells.

 

[Wheelhouse]

LaMont Jordan: 70 recs in 2005

LaMont Jordan: 7 recs in 2006

Why is this? Art Shell, who is generally well-liked by the players and staff, just isn't a very good coach. Plus, the Raiders' offensive coordinator is Tom Walsh, who has been out of the league since 94 (12 years). Perhaps he's just a bit rusty on the NFL game. Plus the playcalling in 10-12 years has changed. See Joe Gibbs first year back.

I like your argument, but I'd still stay away. I'd stay far away.

 

[KiddLattimer]

LaMont Jordan: 70 recs in 2005LaMont Jordan: 7 recs in 2006Why is this? Art Shell, who is generally well-liked by the players and staff, just isn't a very good coach. Plus, the Raiders' offensive coordinator is Tom Walsh, who has been out of the league since 94 (12 years). Perhaps he's just a bit rusty on the NFL game. Plus the playcalling in 10-12 years has changed. See Joe Gibbs first year back. I like your argument, but I'd still stay away. I'd stay far away.

These are all valid points as well Wheelhouse, though I would emphasize the price for Jordan right now is dirt dirt cheap, so if you are smart enough not to over pay, it wont ruin your team because you gave away virtually nothing, say a 3rd receiver type. A bit of a "Low Risk (due to price) High Reward" deal if you will.

 

[One]

LaMont Jordan: 70 recs in 2005LaMont Jordan: 7 recs in 2006Why is this?

It's the loss of Norv Turner. Turner always runs game plans with the RB catching passes out of the backfield. Just look at SF right now. I'm not buying it. Jordan has a few good games/matchups in him this season, but he's not a guy i would target in a trade. In my experience people still want too much for him. Owners seem still caught up on him being their 1st round pick.

 

[redsoxfan]

I agree with the other posters. So much has changed in the offense that last year's numbers are completely irrelevant.

On top of that, some of the matchups that you claim are favorable aren't really all that great. KC, Seattle, St. Louis and Arizona are all in the middle of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to RB's. They're just not the cupcakes they used to be.

I also find it hard to believe that someone would give up Jordan for something like a WR3. I own the guy in one dynasty league where I'm basically holding him until next year hoping that Shell/Walsh get canned. But I wouldn't give him up for such a low price. Even in a redraft most people would rather hold onto an underperforming RB over a marginal starting WR.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Another owner offered me Jordan in exchange for Jennings. I passed.

If you can get ANYBODY cheaply enough they're worth the pickup. Excellent points why he should be a buy low but I'm still not buying.

 

[KiddLattimer]

That may be true about owners insistence on holding him Redsoxfan, and thats really a person to person thing. Some people may be so mad about it that they would sell him off.

I'm not saying KC's D are cupcakes, but they arent exactly the Ravens and Chargers stud defenses. My defensive rankings are based on total yards allowed because "Fantasy points allowed" can vary from league to league and can be a poor indicator of defensive performance for those with "different" scoring systems.

Personally I have a lot of WRs so I am thinking of offering an over rated one like Plax for him.

 

[KiddLattimer]

I agree with the other posters. So much has changed in the offense that last year's numbers are completely irrelevant.

I should also point out that I did not base my theory on Jordan's numbers from last season.

 

[rascal]

I just traded him and Terry Glenn for W Dunn. I was happy to get of my second round bust and pass him on to somebody else.

Might he make some kind of turnaround...sure...but then pigs might fly too.

 

[bigums]

LaMont Jordan: 70 recs in 2005LaMont Jordan: 7 recs in 2006Why is this? Art Shell, who is generally well-liked by the players and staff, just isn't a very good coach. Plus, the Raiders' offensive coordinator is Tom Walsh, who has been out of the league since 94 (12 years). Perhaps he's just a bit rusty on the NFL game. Plus the playcalling in 10-12 years has changed. See Joe Gibbs first year back. I like your argument, but I'd still stay away. I'd stay far away.

I think this is very important to note. Lamont averaged less than 4 ypc LAST year in a more RB friendly offense. Take away his receptions last year and he drops WAY down in the rankings. Add in the fact that the Raiders are apparently MORE inept this year and its a recipe for frustration all season long. I think if you can get him on the real cheap (low WR2 or worse and you have depth) its worth the gamble. Otherwise I think he's going to continue to disappoint those who picked him late 1st, early 2nd.

 

[One]

I just traded him and Terry Glenn for W Dunn.

nice trade.

 

[Plainsman]

LaMont Jordan: 70 recs in 2005LaMont Jordan: 7 recs in 2006Why is this? Art Shell, who is generally well-liked by the players and staff, just isn't a very good coach. Plus, the Raiders' offensive coordinator is Tom Walsh, who has been out of the league since 94 (12 years). Perhaps he's just a bit rusty on the NFL game. Plus the playcalling in 10-12 years has changed. See Joe Gibbs first year back. I like your argument, but I'd still stay away. I'd stay far away.

These are all valid points as well Wheelhouse, though I would emphasize the price for Jordan right now is dirt dirt cheap, so if you are smart enough not to over pay, it wont ruin your team because you gave away virtually nothing, say a 3rd receiver type. A bit of a "Low Risk (due to price) High Reward" deal if you will.

 

[Sigfawn]

LaMont Jordan: 70 recs in 2005LaMont Jordan: 7 recs in 2006Why is this? Art Shell, who is generally well-liked by the players and staff, just isn't a very good coach. Plus, the Raiders' offensive coordinator is Tom Walsh, who has been out of the league since 94 (12 years). Perhaps he's just a bit rusty on the NFL game. Plus the playcalling in 10-12 years has changed. See Joe Gibbs first year back. I like your argument, but I'd still stay away. I'd stay far away.

These are all valid points as well Wheelhouse, though I would emphasize the price for Jordan right now is dirt dirt cheap, so if you are smart enough not to over pay, it wont ruin your team because you gave away virtually nothing, say a 3rd receiver type. A bit of a "Low Risk (due to price) High Reward" deal if you will.

Not really a good post.Why "low risk, high reward" means "I lose games waiting for Jordan to bust out".To get the "high reward", you need to be starting him weekly. How many dud games are you going to get before this reward? 2? 3? 5? Ever? Jordan is only a good buy low if you plan to start him. Which I wouldn't, he'll lose you games.#2RB and #3WR is a big difference. You can wait for a WR3 to bust out. You can't wait on your starting RB2 to bust out. Go ask Jamal Lewis RB2 owners how that's working out. Before you know it, the season is 1/2 over and you're still waiting.A 3rd WR, its hit or miss anyway. You can afford some duds from your 3rd WR. From your RB2? No thanks. If your team is a total mess, you own SA/Lewis, and you need ANY starting RB, then okay, go nuts.But I just don't see the Raiders (and Jordan) turning it around. I certainly wouldn't bet my season on it (again, trading for him as a buy low, you need to start him weekly for the big reward). That offense does not focus on RBs in the passing game. That's really the end of story. The o-line is horrible, the offense is basic, and beyond Moss there's no production to be had. Remember when Gibbs came back? Portis said teams knew what was coming. Gibbs is a hall of fame offensive genius, and the game passed him by. Raiders OC was serving breakfast to tourists. You don't think his offense is painfully predictable? So no, I wouldn't suggest to anyone to go buy him. You'll end up starting him, and losing. While you're at it, go buy Jamal Lewis too. You can hope those two black holes collide and produce a TD.

 

[wolfeman]

I traded Jordan staright up for Fitzgerald.

I already had Portis,C.Taylor, and K.Jones

we can start 3

 

[Homer]

LaMont Jordan: 70 recs in 2005LaMont Jordan: 7 recs in 2006Why is this? Art Shell, who is generally well-liked by the players and staff, just isn't a very good coach. Plus, the Raiders' offensive coordinator is Tom Walsh, who has been out of the league since 94 (12 years). Perhaps he's just a bit rusty on the NFL game. Plus the playcalling in 10-12 years has changed. See Joe Gibbs first year back. I like your argument, but I'd still stay away. I'd stay far away.

These are all valid points as well Wheelhouse, though I would emphasize the price for Jordan right now is dirt dirt cheap, so if you are smart enough not to over pay, it wont ruin your team because you gave away virtually nothing, say a 3rd receiver type. A bit of a "Low Risk (due to price) High Reward" deal if you will.

Not really a good post.Why "low risk, high reward" means "I lose games waiting for Jordan to bust out".To get the "high reward", you need to be starting him weekly. How many dud games are you going to get before this reward? 2? 3? 5? Ever? Jordan is only a good buy low if you plan to start him. Which I wouldn't, he'll lose you games.#2RB and #3WR is a big difference. You can wait for a WR3 to bust out. You can't wait on your starting RB2 to bust out. Go ask Jamal Lewis RB2 owners how that's working out. Before you know it, the season is 1/2 over and you're still waiting.A 3rd WR, its hit or miss anyway. You can afford some duds from your 3rd WR. From your RB2? No thanks. If your team is a total mess, you own SA/Lewis, and you need ANY starting RB, then okay, go nuts.But I just don't see the Raiders (and Jordan) turning it around. I certainly wouldn't bet my season on it (again, trading for him as a buy low, you need to start him weekly for the big reward). That offense does not focus on RBs in the passing game. That's really the end of story. The o-line is horrible, the offense is basic, and beyond Moss there's no production to be had. Remember when Gibbs came back? Portis said teams knew what was coming. Gibbs is a hall of fame offensive genius, and the game passed him by. Raiders OC was serving breakfast to tourists. You don't think his offense is painfully predictable? So no, I wouldn't suggest to anyone to go buy him. You'll end up starting him, and losing. While you're at it, go buy Jamal Lewis too. You can hope those two black holes collide and produce a TD.

Very, very well said. Will Jordan's numbers be "better" than they are now? Probably. Will the #'s he produces really HELP YOU? Depends on what your standards are.

 

[KiddLattimer]

Not really a good post.

Why "low risk, high reward" means "I lose games waiting for Jordan to bust out".

To get the "high reward", you need to be starting him weekly. How many dud games are you going to get before this reward? 2? 3? 5? Ever?

Jordan is only a good buy low if you plan to start him. Which I wouldn't, he'll lose you games.

Let me revise my statement... Lamont Jordan WILL NOT turn around a losing fantasy team. What he might do is give that extra boost to a winning team. Let me give you an example... My team is 5-1. I would be 6-0 but I lost by 2 pts on LT's bye week. My team consists of LT, Chester, TO, Boldin, Driver, Branch, Plaxico, Hasselbeck, Maroney etc. I don't NEED Jordan to turn around the season but (if my theory above is right) he would be an upgrade at my flex spot. What I am looking for is not for him to dominate games and win me the week, but to give me that extra push where a WR or Maroney (split carries) may not.

So in part you're correct that Jordan may be a dud, but as stated above the price has to be right... and if it is, then you have very little risk. But for teams who are already winning, he could boost them even more. I think we can all agree if you are counting on trading for Lamont Jordan to turn your season around... your team is already FUBAR.

Think of it like buying a $200 car... if it runs well you win, and if it craps out in 2 months, you're only out $200. Big deal.

 

[strong]

Let's look at Jordan's last three games:

141 total yards, 1 TD vs Browns

81 yards @ SF

76 yards @ Den

One great game vs. the Browns with a TD at home.

Two decent yardage games without scores on the road.

One thing no one's really talking about: Jordan's splits from last year:

Road: 7 games, 669 total yards, 0 TDs, 11.3 fantasy ppg

Home: 7 games, 919 total yards, 9 TDs, 20.8 fantasy ppg

He was an adequate RB2 on the road last year and a fantastic RB at home. I agree that last year's numbers mean little to Jordan this year with a crappy new coaching staff and all, but you can't deny that at least over the last three games, last year's trend has continued, with very similar numbers to last year. And although it is far too small a sample to generalize (and the Browns are just below average in run defense), it at least offers a glimmer of hope for Jordan's production this year.

Sure, the Raiders offense looks pathetic, but... I think Jordan is still a great buy low candidate, especially as a low risk RB3. I don't get the "You have to start for him to be a buy low candidate" argument. You don't have to start him since you can probably get him fairly cheap and won't be giving up one of your top two RBs to get him. You can wait and see if he continues to perform well at home. And if he does well then target to play him at home against the Texans in week 13, the Rams in week 15, and possibly the Chiefs in week 16 depending on how his year is panning out. If he doesn't do well, I doubt the players you had to give up to get him will sink your ship. Unless it was already sinking...

*strong

 

[LongDrivethenFoozle]

Over analizing......The team is the worst in the NFL, but each week they have to attempt to play to win. There are only two ways to overcome the weakness in their previous efforts offensively. 1) develop a balanced ratio of pass plays and rushes with the hope that the field will open up if the passing game can resemble an NFL caliber passing game. 2) Defensive improvement to the point that the team lands in good field position and a running game can control the clock. I can't stand the "Raider Nation"......but the Defense will step up and Jordan will become a 25 carry back that breaks a couple a game. If you are giving up on Lamont......at least give him one more week. It would be stupid to not at least see his efforts in this weeks game! 20+ rushes for 100+ yds and 2 TD's.......stone cold LOCK!

 

[Sigfawn]

Over analizing......The team is the worst in the NFL, but each week they have to attempt to play to win. There are only two ways to overcome the weakness in their previous efforts offensively. 1) develop a balanced ratio of pass plays and rushes with the hope that the field will open up if the passing game can resemble an NFL caliber passing game. 2) Defensive improvement to the point that the team lands in good field position and a running game can control the clock. I can't stand the "Raider Nation"......but the Defense will step up and Jordan will become a 25 carry back that breaks a couple a game. If you are giving up on Lamont......at least give him one more week. It would be stupid to not at least see his efforts in this weeks game! 20+ rushes for 100+ yds and 2 TD's.......stone cold LOCK!

Based on what? Your scouting? People like to call "bounce back, rebound, come back to life". Teams who suck, tend to keep sucking. Going 0-6, doesn't mean you're due for a win. Doesn't mean you're about to bust out.

It means you're probably going to 0-7.

How many years were people calling for Jamal Lewis to bounce back. People don't always bounce back. Lewis had 2 bad years. Downward trend. So naturally, people called for a "bounce back, rebound year". Uh why? People fall in love with buy lows, but really, most buy lows, stay low. That's why they're low. They're doing poorly.

EDIT: I also doubt this "get Jordan for free" stuff. Chances are, if you have Jordan, you're going to do exactly what you're talking about, wait it out. And to the point that you don't have to start him. Then why get him? He busts out with a nice game, you're going to start him as RB2 the next week? The Raiders are so bad, you have no idea what you're getting week in week out. If he goes for 100 and 2 tds. He could easily go for 22 yards and 0 TDs the next game.

Jordan might be a solid RB. Who knows. But the Raiders if anything, will give you inconsistent performances. You're talking about starting him in the FF playoffs? Seriously?

Jordan won't be anywhere near my FF playoff roster. If you're pinning your playoff success on the Raiders producing, you should just start trading for 2007 draft picks now.

 

[humphrp]

Maybe a slight change of focus. What do you all think of him as far as dynasty or deep keeper league's. I think this is where the value might be. Keep him through the rest of the year and see what comes from next year.

 

[Sigfawn]

Maybe a slight change of focus. What do you all think of him as far as dynasty or deep keeper league's. I think this is where the value might be. Keep him through the rest of the year and see what comes from next year.

It's hard to tell.Lets say Raiders have the first pick. Is Al Davis going to fall in love with AP? I see a little Marcus Allen in AP. Maybe a little Bo Jackson. Seeing the Raiders pass up Leinart/Cutler, I wouldn't put it pass them to draft AP. And if they don't, we're talking Quinn starting in 2007 or 2008? Either way, the Raiders are in for a huge rebuilding project. And that won't start until they fire Shell. Unless Jordan reunites with Norv Turner, I'm not sure he's going to sniff top 15 RB anytime soon.

 

[buccosfan]

I traded Jordan staright up for Fitzgerald.I already had Portis,C.Taylor, and K.Joneswe can start 3

that's unbelievable. i know fitz is hurt, but still.

 

[sheerterror]

FWIW, I just traded Jamal Lewis, my 1st rounder in 07 (likely a low pick) and another top team's 2nd rounder for Jordan.

While this may seem like a lot, I feel that Lamont Jordan is a decent back, and the Raiders are currently just a terrible team. While they look like total garbage this year, I'm much more confident in his long term propspects than Lewis'. This league is PPR, and while Lamont's receptions are noticeably down, he's a talented receiver out of the backfield, and I feel that at some point, maybe not this season but down the line, his receiving skills will again be utilized.

I have a feeling I probably could have pulled this off with giving another 2nd and keeping my 1st, but I had to get this trade done ASAP and didn't have time to start negotiating.

I know no one gives a #### about my team or league, but I guess this might help some people gauge what type of trade value is out there.

 

[thecardiackid]

Jordan was moved in my 14 team $ league last week (not my team):

Jordan & Roy Will

for

K Jones & Ike Bruce

 

[LongDrivethenFoozle]

All hail "sigfawn".....the fresh prince of hot-air. How is any insight valuable in comparison to the the self proclaimed "maestro of jilly" our esteemed "Sig". It's all you "fawn" ......lead us to the promised zone! Why is there even a forum when we could all just go to www.sigfawnfishwrap.com?????

 

[CA_7]

We have an Adimchinobe Echemandu sighting!

Running backs LaMont Jordan (back) and Justin Fargas (shoulder) practiced Friday and are expected to play Sunday "unless something changes before game time." The Raiders are permitted to sign a player to take suspended wide receiver Jerry Porter's spot on the 53-man roster. Therefore, Shell said, the Raiders might sign running back Adimchinobe Echemandu from the practice squad as a precautionary measure. Everyone else is a go, except for quarterback Aaron Brooks (pectoral muscle) and linebacker Grant Irons (back), Shell said.

http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctime...rs/15815090.htm

 

[Sigfawn]

All hail "sigfawn".....the fresh prince of hot-air. How is any insight valuable in comparison to the the self proclaimed "maestro of jilly" our esteemed "Sig". It's all you "fawn" ......lead us to the promised zone! Why is there even a forum when we could all just go to www.sigfawnfishwrap.com?????

I can't compare with your "stone cold locks" of "2 tds and 100 yards" for Jordan based on "???". Tell us why the Raiders D and Jordan are about to go off? Law of averages? You're liking Sapp in the1/2 half? How is Huff working out? Please break down the factors you like about the D turning it around. Must be some detailed information to be a “stone cold lock”.That's reassuring. Every week someone spouts off about a crappy player, so when he does get a TD he can go post “I told you so – even though I was wrong 6 out of 7 weeks”.

 

[MooseCats]

I know the Raiders are terrible, but I think Jordan is a talented back. He was a middle 1st rounder to a high second round pick in almost every league. I realize that is based on last year, but the Raiders kinda sucked last year as well. Hopefully the coaches will alter thier game plan, but if not I still see some games where Jordan will be a solid #2 RB, and a great #3 from here on out. I could be wrong, but this is all a crap shoot, isn't it? But I do hope I'm correct beacuse I traded Reggie Bush for him this week. (non PPR league) I feel good about it and I'm moving ahead with LaMont as my #2 behind SJax, and ahead of Ahman G.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

I traded Jordan staright up for Fitzgerald.I already had Portis,C.Taylor, and K.Joneswe can start 3

I like that trade.

 

[Jayrod]

I picked up Jordan two weeks ago OFF OF THE WAIVER WIRE!!!

Some chump got so pissed about him doing nothing in a PPR league that he outright dropped him. I used up my #2 WW priority to get him. It is a 12 team league with a 2 RB, 2 WR, 3 Flex lineup. Having Jordan to chip in 8 points on any given bye week is nice insurance (or whenever Westbrook gets held out of a game), especially considering I was looking at Marion Barber as a possible start some weeks.

I probably would have traded Deion Branch or Matt Jones for him (I picked up Jennings & Cotchery early on to go with Roy Williams & Andre Johnson)

Basically, LaMont Jordan has some definite value in deeper leagues. It depends really depends on who owns him in your league. If the guy knows his stuff, the price will probably be too high, but that wasted late 1st/early 2nd round pick can leave a bad taste in some peoples mouths and they might be willing to trade for almost anything of some value.

 

[Slinger]

Apparently Jordan is a beast at home and a dud when he plays away. And I quote:

(KFFL) Jerry McDonald, of ANG Newspapers, reports Oakland Raiders RB LaMont Jordan has rushed for 768 yards with a 4.4 yards-per-carry average and seven rushing touchdowns in nine homes games as a Raider. On the road, Jordan has rushed for just 571 yards with a 3.1 yards-per-carry average and no rushing touchdowns in 10 games.

 

[strong]

Apparently Jordan is a beast at home and a dud when he plays away. And I quote:(KFFL) Jerry McDonald, of ANG Newspapers, reports Oakland Raiders RB LaMont Jordan has rushed for 768 yards with a 4.4 yards-per-carry average and seven rushing touchdowns in nine homes games as a Raider. On the road, Jordan has rushed for just 571 yards with a 3.1 yards-per-carry average and no rushing touchdowns in 10 games.

I wish KFFL would cite me.

 

[KiddLattimer]

You did post it first strong we're all witness!

 

[Sigfawn]

Great news guys, Jordan is now even cheaper!

Go get 'em!