Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Larry Fitzgerald Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Pots]

Last year had an interesting combination of his lowest catch total since he was inured in 2006, highest YPC in his career.

I expect both to come back to his mean.

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

 

[Treesarepeopletoo]

I know his quarterbacks suck, but he's Larry Fitzgerald! I think somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,400 yards and 12 TDs sounds about right. Dude has a shot at breaking Jerry Rice's records.

 

[Bayhawks]

I know his quarterbacks suck, but he's Larry Fitzgerald! I think somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,400 yards and 12 TDs sounds about right. Dude has a shot at breaking Jerry Rice's records.

Fitzgerald is a GREAT player, but this post is just wrong. Jerry Rice benefited from playing with some great QBs for 80% of his NFL career: Montana, Young, and Gannon (16/20 years). Fitzgerald has already had 1/2 his career hampered by crappy QB play. Fitzgerald has virtually NO SHOT at breaking Rice's records. He would have to play AT LEAST 10 more years, and AVERAGE 86 catches, 1330 yards, and 13 TDs. Seeing how he hasn't had one single season with all those marks, I doubt he's going to start a 10-year streak now.For 2012, though, I think Fitzgerald will be fine. He won't be the stud he is capable of, because of his QB(s), but he'll be a top-10 FF WR.145 targets, 90 receptions, 1210 yards, 8 TDs.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

I agree with this, and these numbers put me to sleep. I won't be drafting Fitz since he's top 3 to 5 on everyone's list. His numbers could be monstrous with a great QB, but he has total crap. I'd rather take WR's a round or 2 later who are going to put up the exact same numbers.

 

[Shutout]

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

I agree with this, and these numbers put me to sleep. I won't be drafting Fitz since he's top 3 to 5 on everyone's list. His numbers could be monstrous with a great QB, but he has total crap. I'd rather take WR's a round or 2 later who are going to put up the exact same numbers.

And who might these guys be? I have no doubt some players can put up those type of stats but I'm having trouble thinking of who they might be 12-24 picks later.

 

[nickdib]

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

I agree with this, and these numbers put me to sleep. I won't be drafting Fitz since he's top 3 to 5 on everyone's list. His numbers could be monstrous with a great QB, but he has total crap. I'd rather take WR's a round or 2 later who are going to put up the exact same numbers.

And who might these guys be? I have no doubt some players can put up those type of stats but I'm having trouble thinking of who they might be 12-24 picks later.

Welker, Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz

 

[scrumptrulescent]

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

I agree with this, and these numbers put me to sleep. I won't be drafting Fitz since he's top 3 to 5 on everyone's list. His numbers could be monstrous with a great QB, but he has total crap. I'd rather take WR's a round or 2 later who are going to put up the exact same numbers.

And who might these guys be? I have no doubt some players can put up those type of stats but I'm having trouble thinking of who they might be 12-24 picks later.

Welker, Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz

Maclin, Bowe, Dez & Miles, Demaryius Thomas.

 

[fightingillini]

Fitzgerald is a safe option as a top WR. You know he will catch 85+ passes. You know he will catch 8+ TDs. And his upside is through the roof. If Kolb can somehow get his head of out his ###, Fitzgerald can have a year like Megatron did last year. Issue is price. I will have a hard time spending a 2nd round pick on him when the WR pool after Megatron is fairly wide. There are 10 or more WRs that can produce the projection I give Fitzgerald.

90 rec, 1250 yds, 9 TD

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Fitzgerald is a safe option as a top WR. You know he will catch 85+ passes. You know he will catch 8+ TDs. And his upside is through the roof. If Kolb can somehow get his head of out his ###, Fitzgerald can have a year like Megatron did last year. Issue is price. I will have a hard time spending a 2nd round pick on him when the WR pool after Megatron is fairly wide. There are 10 or more WRs that can produce the projection I give Fitzgerald.

90 rec, 1250 yds, 9 TD

Fitz never got near Calvin Johnson numbers with Kurt Warner. Kolb will need much more than pulling his head out to make that happen. In fact, it will not.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

I'd say a 100 for 1400 and 12 is near Calvin. And let's be honest. Calvin has never had a season near his stats from last year. I think people are discounting the safety in having Fitz on your team. He never misses games, he's a lock for top 10 with #1 wr upside. He's exactly what I want in a second round pick. Someone I can count on with low risk. We all know drafts and leagues are won in the mid to late rounds and on the waiver wire

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I'd say a 100 for 1400 and 12 is near Calvin. And let's be honest. Calvin has never had a season near his stats from last year.

Personally I do not consider 100/1400/12 near 96/1680/16.And if we're going to be honest, the past is past. The present is Calvin with Stafford putting up monster numbers. The present is not Fitz with Warner, it's Fitz with Kolb or Skelton and putting up the same kind of numbers that many other WR's are putting up.

 

[Shutout]

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

I agree with this, and these numbers put me to sleep. I won't be drafting Fitz since he's top 3 to 5 on everyone's list. His numbers could be monstrous with a great QB, but he has total crap. I'd rather take WR's a round or 2 later who are going to put up the exact same numbers.

And who might these guys be? I have no doubt some players can put up those type of stats but I'm having trouble thinking of who they might be 12-24 picks later.

Welker, Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz

You're telling me those guys will be picked 12-24 picks after Fitz? can't see it. As hot as some guys are on Cruz and, Welker in PPR, all these guys look like same range players but not a round or two after Fitz.

 

[Shutout]

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

I agree with this, and these numbers put me to sleep. I won't be drafting Fitz since he's top 3 to 5 on everyone's list. His numbers could be monstrous with a great QB, but he has total crap. I'd rather take WR's a round or 2 later who are going to put up the exact same numbers.

And who might these guys be? I have no doubt some players can put up those type of stats but I'm having trouble thinking of who they might be 12-24 picks later.

Welker, Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz

Maclin, Bowe, Dez & Miles, Demaryius Thomas.

i like this list a lot better than the previous one. I can see it with maclin. I have reservations on Bowe (new sysytem, Charles is back, contract unsettled). Dez or Miles, one or the other, is likely to hit the yardage and/or TDs, but 95 catches on a team that has Murray, Jones, Witten, and the other WR (Miles or DEZ), is a lot to ask for. Thomas, will not happen. If Manning is nothing, he is a creature of precision and trust and I think Tamme has the trust issue and Decker is the guy that fits more of what Peyton likes to do. I can see thomas being a high TD guy with average yardage and 65-80 catches, but not top shelf numbers across the board.So basically that leaves me with a decision of taking Fitz, who I know will, somehow, someway, post a top WR statline when all is said or done, or I gamble and try to think that someone in the next 12-24 picks won't have a good sense about Maclin. I think I take fitz and rest well at night. Too many questions with all the others.

 

[Grahamburn]

Larry posted the best yards per catch average of his career in 2011 at 17.6, which can likely be attributed to John Skelton forcing the ball to him down the field in coverage. Skelton learned something most of us already knew, Larry Fitzgerald will go up and take the ball away from defenders if you give him the opportunity.

He had the second best total yardage season of his career at 1,411 with the Kolb/Skelton combination at QB. It's simply astounding what this guy can do.

4 of 8 seasons with 1,400+ yards. 4 of 8 seasons with at least double digit TDs. There isn't an active WR in their prime in the NFL who can boast career accomplishments like that, and Larry Fitzgerald will only be 29 years young when the season begins.

Welker, Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, Maclin, Bowe, Dez, Miles, and Demaryius Thomas? Are you guys serious with these comparisons? These players have 2 1,400+ yard seasons, and 6 double digit TD seasons combined in their careers. Larry Fitzgerald has 4 of each.

Good luck passing on Fitzgerald and hitting the lotto on which one of those guys is going to come close to matching Larry's 1,400 and 10.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'd say a 100 for 1400 and 12 is near Calvin. And let's be honest. Calvin has never had a season near his stats from last year.

Personally I do not consider 100/1400/12 near 96/1680/16.And if we're going to be honest, the past is past. The present is Calvin with Stafford putting up monster numbers. The present is not Fitz with Warner, it's Fitz with Kolb or Skelton and putting up the same kind of numbers that many other WR's are putting up.

Who's putting up those numbers with a track record of consistency as long as Fitzgerald's? You can argue that one of the players you listed may outproduce him, but how many of those guys do you get to pick? Two, if you're lucky.Fitz is probably the safest pick in the first two rounds other than Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.

 

[nickdib]

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

I agree with this, and these numbers put me to sleep. I won't be drafting Fitz since he's top 3 to 5 on everyone's list. His numbers could be monstrous with a great QB, but he has total crap. I'd rather take WR's a round or 2 later who are going to put up the exact same numbers.

And who might these guys be? I have no doubt some players can put up those type of stats but I'm having trouble thinking of who they might be 12-24 picks later.

Welker, Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz

You're telling me those guys will be picked 12-24 picks after Fitz? can't see it. As hot as some guys are on Cruz and, Welker in PPR, all these guys look like same range players but not a round or two after Fitz.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp-ppr.php ..... I'm using the footballguys PPR ADP. Welker goes 14 picks after Fitz, Nicks goes 16 after, Marshall goes 19 after, and Cruz goes 21 after

 

[Grahamburn]

Welker goes 14 picks after Fitz, Nicks goes 16 after, Marshall goes 19 after, and Cruz goes 21 after

As they should.

 

[nickdib]

Welker goes 14 picks after Fitz, Nicks goes 16 after, Marshall goes 19 after, and Cruz goes 21 after

As they should.

I'm saying that all these guys are going more than a round later than fitzgerald, and all can put up just as good of numbers if not better than Fitzgerald

 

[Pots]

Welker goes 14 picks after Fitz, Nicks goes 16 after, Marshall goes 19 after, and Cruz goes 21 after

As they should.

I disagree, I think they're better value than Fitz.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I'd say a 100 for 1400 and 12 is near Calvin. And let's be honest. Calvin has never had a season near his stats from last year.

Personally I do not consider 100/1400/12 near 96/1680/16.And if we're going to be honest, the past is past. The present is Calvin with Stafford putting up monster numbers. The present is not Fitz with Warner, it's Fitz with Kolb or Skelton and putting up the same kind of numbers that many other WR's are putting up.

Who's putting up those numbers with a track record of consistency as long as Fitzgerald's?

+Who is drafting based on the past?

 

[Grahamburn]

Welker goes 14 picks after Fitz, Nicks goes 16 after, Marshall goes 19 after, and Cruz goes 21 after

As they should.

I'm saying that all these guys are going more than a round later than fitzgerald, and all can put up just as good of numbers if not better than Fitzgerald

Can they?Welker (now with Lloyd on his team) and Cruz (currently without Nicks) each have one season over 1,400 yards and neither have ever caught double digit TDs. Nicks (perpetually injured) and Marshall (on his 3rd team in 4 years) have never been over 1,400 yards, and they've each caught double digit TDs just once in their careers.

Larry Fitzgerald has reached each of those benchmarks 4 times in his career, and 3 of those seasons he hit both in the same year. Best case scenario is one of those guys has a career season and matches Larry Fitzgerald's production. The drafter's dilemma is picking which WR might have that season.

You are almost guaranteed 1,400+ yards and/or double digit touchdowns from Fitz. I don't see that kind of stability from those other WRs.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Welker goes 14 picks after Fitz, Nicks goes 16 after, Marshall goes 19 after, and Cruz goes 21 after

As they should.

I'm saying that all these guys are going more than a round later than fitzgerald, and all can put up just as good of numbers if not better than Fitzgerald

Can they?Welker (now with Lloyd on his team) and Cruz (currently without Nicks) each have one season over 1,400 yards and neither have ever caught double digit TDs. Nicks (perpetually injured) and Marshall (on his 3rd team in 4 years) have never been over 1,400 yards, and they've each caught double digit TDs just once in their careers.

Larry Fitzgerald has reached each of those benchmarks 4 times in his career, and 3 of those seasons he hit both in the same year. Best case scenario is one of those guys has a career season and matches Larry Fitzgerald's production. The drafter's dilemma is picking which WR might have that season.

You are almost guaranteed 1,400+ yards and/or double digit touchdowns from Fitz. I don't see that kind of stability from those other WRs.

The last sentence is total Kurt Warner isn't coming out of that locker room ever again. The reality is somewhere around 85 receptions, 1,275 yards, and 7 TD's unless his QB play takes a big step forward.

 

[Grahamburn]

Who is drafting based on the past?

I draft based on projections. The projection you originally replied to had Fitzgerald penciled in for 1,200 and 8. If that's what you really think he'll produce then you should definitely wait a couple rounds for those other WRs.The obvious problem with that projection is Larry Fitzgerald has never had a season that poor other than his rookie season, an injured season, and a lost season with a Derek Anderson/Max Hall QB combination of absolute atrociousness. A season where Larry still managed 1,137 yards and 6 TDs.So, unless you think Larry will revert back to his rookie form, get injured, or suffer from QB play like that again it's pretty silly to think he'll only manage 1,200 yards and 8 TDs.

 

[Grahamburn]

You are almost guaranteed 1,400+ yards and/or double digit touchdowns from Fitz. I don't see that kind of stability from those other WRs.

The last sentence is total Kurt Warner isn't coming out of that locker room ever again. The reality is somewhere around 85 receptions, 1,275 yards, and 7 TD's unless his QB play takes a big step forward.

You realize Larry just had 1,411 yards in 2011, right? Hint: Kurt Warner wasn't the QB. I also personally view the Cardinals as a team on the rise, and think Fitz can get back to double digit TDs in 2012.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

You are almost guaranteed 1,400+ yards and/or double digit touchdowns from Fitz. I don't see that kind of stability from those other WRs.

The last sentence is total Kurt Warner isn't coming out of that locker room ever again. The reality is somewhere around 85 receptions, 1,275 yards, and 7 TD's unless his QB play takes a big step forward.

You realize Larry just had 1,411 yards in 2011, right? Hint: Kurt Warner wasn't the QB. I also personally view the Cardinals as a team on the rise, and think Fitz can get back to double digit TDs in 2012.

Yeah, and 8 TD's. I took the average of the past 2 seasons.The way you view Larry this year is fine for you. I disagree.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Who is drafting based on the past?

I draft based on projections. The projection you originally replied to had Fitzgerald penciled in for 1,200 and 8. If that's what you really think he'll produce then you should definitely wait a couple rounds for those other WRs.The obvious problem with that projection is Larry Fitzgerald has never had a season that poor other than his rookie season, an injured season, and a lost season with a Derek Anderson/Max Hall QB combination of absolute atrociousness. A season where Larry still managed 1,137 yards and 6 TDs.So, unless you think Larry will revert back to his rookie form, get injured, or suffer from QB play like that again it's pretty silly to think he'll only manage 1,200 yards and 8 TDs.

I will be waiting for a later round.I believe Larry still has atrociousness at QB.Larry will suffer from QB play again.

 

[humpback]

Sure, those guys who you can get a round or two later can put up the same numbers, but how many (and which ones) will? Would you really bet that Maclin, Bowe, et al are going to put up the same numbers? I'd bet that most will not.

His ff value certainly is hampered by his QB situation, but I think his floor and ceiling are higher than most of the guys listed earlier. They may be similar or even better values, but I think Fitz will outperform most of them.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The people that are saying you can just grab one of those other guys 12-24 picks later and get the same kind of production as Fitz are committing one of fantasy football's biggest mistakes: they're immediately forgetting the lessons they learned just last year.

Thinking that you can count on those guys to produce at Fitz's level this year is a huge mistake. You might get a guy who produces at that level, but there's just as good a chance (if not a better one) that you won't. There's a reason Fitz is drafted 12-24 picks earlier despite having similar stats last year and it's not because of his name. It's because he's the closest thing that there is to a guarantee at WR. He rarely misses time, and when he's in he always produces no matter who his QB is, and no matter who gets injured around him.

Here's the point about last year. You could have made the exact same argument then. There was another group of WRs in the exact same ADP spot that guys like Cruz, etc are now. Most had put up similar numbers to Fitz the year before and most had the same "I'll wait 12-24 picks and get this guy who put up similar numbers" argument applied to them. Here they are...

Greg Jennings (949/9)

Vincent Jackson (1106/9)

Mike Wallace (1193/8)

DeSean Jackson (961/4)

Miles Austin (579/7)

Reggie Wayne (960/4)

Dwayne Bowe (1159/5)

Not a single one of them came anywhere close to Fitz's fantasy numbers, and several barely eclipsed half of Fitzgerald's fantasy points. There are plenty of excuses to go around. Some missed games. Some had their QBs get injured and were stuck with a poor backup QB. Some had other WRs around them emerge and steal too many looks. Some ended up on a team in disarray. But that's the thing. There are so many things that can go wrong, and Fitzgerald is immune (or at least resistant) to most if not all of them.

With Fitzgerald, you're paying for safety. Whether or not that's worth it to you is your own prerogative and everyone has a different strategy on that front. Personally, I'm more of a risk taker with my drafting so I'd rather wait a round or two and take a risk with one of the other guys. But that doesn't mean I'm not aware that it's a big risk, which a lot of people in this thread don't seem to be grasping. When you wait 12-24 picks to get a "Fitzgerald-like" wide receiver you're going to be picking from a pool of players where maybe 1 or 2 are actually going to end up being "Fitzgerald-like" or better. Another couple are going to be worse but still reasonable starters, and another couple are going to be total busts. That's the price you're paying by waiting, and assuming that all or anywhere near all of those guys are going to repeat last year's performance is a huge fallacy.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Fitz is the best WR of his generation but Kolb and Skelton are both awful and Fitz' YPC last year smells like an aberration to me. He shouldn't be going off the board as WR2 IMO.

90 - 1200 - 8

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Sure, those guys who you can get a round or two later can put up the same numbers, but how many (and which ones) will? Would you really bet that Maclin, Bowe, et al are going to put up the same numbers? I'd bet that most will not.

His ff value certainly is hampered by his QB situation, but I think his floor and ceiling are higher than most of the guys listed earlier. They may be similar or even better values, but I think Fitz will outperform most of them.

If you're going to talk about risk in players a round later than Fitz putting up the same numbers, you need to remember that by taking Fitz a round earlier you are giving up a better player at another position.ADP - Fitz is currently 12th overall. Lynch, Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford all follow Fitz.

Would you rather have Lynch/Nicks or Fitz/Jamaal Charles? Would you rather have C Newton/Mike Wallace or Fitz/A Peterson?

 

[humpback]

Sure, those guys who you can get a round or two later can put up the same numbers, but how many (and which ones) will? Would you really bet that Maclin, Bowe, et al are going to put up the same numbers? I'd bet that most will not.

His ff value certainly is hampered by his QB situation, but I think his floor and ceiling are higher than most of the guys listed earlier. They may be similar or even better values, but I think Fitz will outperform most of them.

If you're going to talk about risk in players a round later than Fitz putting up the same numbers, you need to remember that by taking Fitz a round earlier you are giving up a better player at another position.

Of course, which is why I said that those other guys a round or two later may be similar or better values than Fitz. The better play might be to take a better RB and a lesser WR than take Fitz and a lesser RB. I'm talking about the people acting as if it's a lock that those other WRs are going to put up the same numbers as Fitz, which I disagree with. I agree with FreeBagel's post basically.

 

[Instinctive]

Sure, those guys who you can get a round or two later can put up the same numbers, but how many (and which ones) will? Would you really bet that Maclin, Bowe, et al are going to put up the same numbers? I'd bet that most will not.

His ff value certainly is hampered by his QB situation, but I think his floor and ceiling are higher than most of the guys listed earlier. They may be similar or even better values, but I think Fitz will outperform most of them.

If you're going to talk about risk in players a round later than Fitz putting up the same numbers, you need to remember that by taking Fitz a round earlier you are giving up a better player at another position.ADP - Fitz is currently 12th overall. Lynch, Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford all follow Fitz.

Would you rather have Lynch/Nicks or Fitz/Jamaal Charles? Would you rather have C Newton/Mike Wallace or Fitz/A Peterson?

If Newton's after Fitz, and I'm taking Fitz at 12, can't I have Newton and Fitz? Standard 12 team serpentine? I prefer that to Cam/Wallace...just as an example.

 

[beef]

Fitz is like fruity pebbles in dill pickle juice. You know he is phenominal, but with so bitter awful passing support.

 

[butcher boy]

Fitz is like fruity pebbles in dill pickle juice. You know he is phenominal, but with so bitter awful passing support.

His situation makes him more like an expensive steak that's been cooked well done. He's not all he can be and it can be argued that he is being wasted, but he's still pretty phnominal regardless.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Sure, those guys who you can get a round or two later can put up the same numbers, but how many (and which ones) will? Would you really bet that Maclin, Bowe, et al are going to put up the same numbers? I'd bet that most will not.

His ff value certainly is hampered by his QB situation, but I think his floor and ceiling are higher than most of the guys listed earlier. They may be similar or even better values, but I think Fitz will outperform most of them.

The thing about these guys you can get a round or so later than Fitz, is they would have to have career years to put up fitz's floor. Can it happen? Sure. Will one or two of them? Probably. But the majority won't. Which is why they're being drafted a round or so later.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

I'd say a 100 for 1400 and 12 is near Calvin. And let's be honest. Calvin has never had a season near his stats from last year.

Personally I do not consider 100/1400/12 near 96/1680/16.And if we're going to be honest, the past is past. The present is Calvin with Stafford putting up monster numbers. The present is not Fitz with Warner, it's Fitz with Kolb or Skelton and putting up the same kind of numbers that many other WR's are putting up.

I would say those numbers are near Calvin last year. Especially when you examine Calvin's season a little closer. He caught 8 tds in the first four games and 8 in the next 12. I'd say his start to the season is the outlier. Extrapolate 8 tds over 12 games and he would have another 2.6 tds. Give him the benefit of the doubt (he is megatron) and make it 3 or even 4 more tds and he ends up with 11 or 12 on the season.

 

[Shutout]

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

I agree with this, and these numbers put me to sleep. I won't be drafting Fitz since he's top 3 to 5 on everyone's list. His numbers could be monstrous with a great QB, but he has total crap. I'd rather take WR's a round or 2 later who are going to put up the exact same numbers.

And who might these guys be? I have no doubt some players can put up those type of stats but I'm having trouble thinking of who they might be 12-24 picks later.

Welker, Nicks, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz

You're telling me those guys will be picked 12-24 picks after Fitz? can't see it. As hot as some guys are on Cruz and, Welker in PPR, all these guys look like same range players but not a round or two after Fitz.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp-ppr.php ..... I'm using the footballguys PPR ADP. Welker goes 14 picks after Fitz, Nicks goes 16 after, Marshall goes 19 after, and Cruz goes 21 after

I'm pretty shocked at that. I don't know enough about the FBG link you shared to know if that is pretty much like writing something in stone and taking it to the bank or if its just something that changes a lot and doesn't end up being what really happens (or if it is geared towards certain types of leagues and scoring). I'll take the numbers for what they are but I really am shocked. In most of my leagues, we have WR flex or even 3 WR starters and that would just never happen. I mean, you're basically saying that I can jump into the "typical" league and feature a WR lineup of fitz, Welker or Nicks (grab him 14 picks later) and Cruz (grab him 21 picks later)?Fitz, Welker, and Cruz are my WRs..Wow. Its Probably because of the league rules I play in that this just seems otherwordly to me. In my leagues, that would be such an advantage that you could punch a ticket to the playoffs with any single decent RB and an average supporting cast. But I guess if this is the case, and we take the info as proof and truth, then what we really should be saying is Fitz, and probably Calvin are in a stratosphere tier by themselves. If guys like Nicks, Welker (ppr) and Cruz are guys you think about the next time your pick comes around, then Fitz must be mre valuable than even i thought he was (and I think he's the bees knees).

 

[humpback]

Sure, those guys who you can get a round or two later can put up the same numbers, but how many (and which ones) will? Would you really bet that Maclin, Bowe, et al are going to put up the same numbers? I'd bet that most will not.

His ff value certainly is hampered by his QB situation, but I think his floor and ceiling are higher than most of the guys listed earlier. They may be similar or even better values, but I think Fitz will outperform most of them.

The thing about these guys you can get a round or so later than Fitz, is they would have to have career years to put up fitz's floor. Can it happen? Sure. Will one or two of them? Probably. But the majority won't. Which is why they're being drafted a round or so later.

This is a bit over the top, it wouldn't take a career year from all of those guys to equal Fitz's floor, but I generally agree. People are saying that those 10+ guys will put up the same numbers, and I'd say the over/under is probably around 2/3 who actually will.

 

[Sabertooth]

95 catches

1200

7. Tds

 

[Sabertooth]

I acquired him in a 2qb league this offseason for Sam Bradford straight -up.

 

[Grahamburn]

Last year had an interesting combination of his lowest catch total since he was inured in 2006, highest YPC in his career.

I expect both to come back to his mean.

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

145 targets, 90 receptions, 1210 yards, 8 TDs.

95 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TDs

I agree with this, and these numbers put me to sleep. I won't be drafting Fitz since he's top 3 to 5 on everyone's list. His numbers could be monstrous with a great QB, but he has total crap. I'd rather take WR's a round or 2 later who are going to put up the exact same numbers.

Fitz is the best WR of his generation but Kolb and Skelton are both awful and Fitz' YPC last year smells like an aberration to me. He shouldn't be going off the board as WR2 IMO.

90 - 1200 - 8

95 catches

1200

7. Tds

I really don't understand these. As I said upthread, Fitzgerald has never finished the season with numbers this poor unless something drastic happened (injury, Max Hall/Derek Anderson).

The QB situation is unchanged from a 2011 season where Fitzgerald had 1,411 yards and 8 TDs. Kolb/Skelton have already proven to be a better duo than the QB abortion from 2010, and now they've actually had an offseason to work with arguably the best pure WR in the game.

It's hard to imagine a season of 1,200 and 7 or 8 TDs for Fitzgerald unless he misses games.

I'm not projecting anything drastically better, but I see him 30 or so fantasy points higher than that, because that's usually where he is. People seem to be falling in love with the apparent WR depth this year and convincing themselves Larry Fitzgerald isn't worth his early 2nd round WR2 pricetag. As usual, he will be.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is a bit over the top, it wouldn't take a career year from all of those guys to equal Fitz's floor, but I generally agree. People are saying that those 10+ guys will put up the same numbers, and I'd say the over/under is probably around 2/3 who actually will.

2/3 is way high. Last year WRs in the same ADP range were 0 for 7.

 

[renesauz]

Still a top 3 WR. Why are people expecting Kolb to suck as bad as last year?

88/1340/11 with a floor no more than 5/150/3 lower and a ceiling much higher. Don't #@$#% around, just draft him and know your WR1 slot is well covered week in and out.

 

[Sabertooth]

Still a top 3 WR. Why are people expecting Kolb to suck as bad as last year?88/1340/11 with a floor no more than 5/150/3 lower and a ceiling much higher. Don't #@$#% around, just draft him and know your WR1 slot is well covered week in and out.

Kolb could very well be "as-bad" but he almost certainly won't be worse. Skelton was actually better for Fitz I think though.

 

[humpback]

This is a bit over the top, it wouldn't take a career year from all of those guys to equal Fitz's floor, but I generally agree. People are saying that those 10+ guys will put up the same numbers, and I'd say the over/under is probably around 2/3 who actually will.

2/3 is way high. Last year WRs in the same ADP range were 0 for 7.

Maybe so, but I'm talking about the specific players mentioned. Guys like Welker and Cruz outscored Fitz last year, they just happened to have an even lower ADP.My point is, people have said there are 10 or more WRs that you can get a round or two later than Fitz that will put up the same numbers, and I think that's way too high.

 

[Sabertooth]

This is a bit over the top, it wouldn't take a career year from all of those guys to equal Fitz's floor, but I generally agree. People are saying that those 10+ guys will put up the same numbers, and I'd say the over/under is probably around 2/3 who actually will.

2/3 is way high. Last year WRs in the same ADP range were 0 for 7.

Maybe so, but I'm talking about the specific players mentioned. Guys like Welker and Cruz outscored Fitz last year, they just happened to have an even lower ADP.My point is, people have said there are 10 or more WRs that you can get a round or two later than Fitz that will put up the same numbers, and I think that's way too high.

I bet both Welker and Cruz don't outscore Fitz this year. I think Fitz's high floor make him very valuable as has been mentioned. He has been rock solid and is in his prime right now. Right smack dab in the middle of his best years. I gave a low prediction because I own him and as funny as it sounds, I am very conservative when ranking guys I already have.

 

[humpback]

This is a bit over the top, it wouldn't take a career year from all of those guys to equal Fitz's floor, but I generally agree. People are saying that those 10+ guys will put up the same numbers, and I'd say the over/under is probably around 2/3 who actually will.

2/3 is way high. Last year WRs in the same ADP range were 0 for 7.

Maybe so, but I'm talking about the specific players mentioned. Guys like Welker and Cruz outscored Fitz last year, they just happened to have an even lower ADP.My point is, people have said there are 10 or more WRs that you can get a round or two later than Fitz that will put up the same numbers, and I think that's way too high.

I bet both Welker and Cruz don't outscore Fitz this year. I think Fitz's high floor make him very valuable as has been mentioned. He has been rock solid and is in his prime right now. Right smack dab in the middle of his best years. I gave a low prediction because I own him and as funny as it sounds, I am very conservative when ranking guys I already have.

I'd bet that as well, that isn't what I'm saying. I'm saying that a couple of guys have said there are 10+ WRs who you can get a round or two lower than Fitz but will put up the same numbers, and my guess is there will only be 2 or 3 of them. I was just responding to FreeBagel's post, when he said last year there were zero (which is technically true). Guys like Welker and Cruz did put up more points, but they were more than a round or two lower last year (they won't be this year).I own him and tend to be on the conservative side with projections as well- realistically, it's highly unlikely that 10+ WRs taken a round or two later put up the same numbers, but it's also pretty likely that a couple of them do. It's the nature of the beast- players never finish in order of ADP. I'd still take Fitz over those guys however.

 

[Sabertooth]

This is a bit over the top, it wouldn't take a career year from all of those guys to equal Fitz's floor, but I generally agree. People are saying that those 10+ guys will put up the same numbers, and I'd say the over/under is probably around 2/3 who actually will.

2/3 is way high. Last year WRs in the same ADP range were 0 for 7.

Maybe so, but I'm talking about the specific players mentioned. Guys like Welker and Cruz outscored Fitz last year, they just happened to have an even lower ADP.My point is, people have said there are 10 or more WRs that you can get a round or two later than Fitz that will put up the same numbers, and I think that's way too high.

I bet both Welker and Cruz don't outscore Fitz this year. I think Fitz's high floor make him very valuable as has been mentioned. He has been rock solid and is in his prime right now. Right smack dab in the middle of his best years. I gave a low prediction because I own him and as funny as it sounds, I am very conservative when ranking guys I already have.

I'd bet that as well, that isn't what I'm saying. I'm saying that a couple of guys have said there are 10+ WRs who you can get a round or two lower than Fitz but will put up the same numbers, and my guess is there will only be 2 or 3 of them. I was just responding to FreeBagel's post, when he said last year there were zero (which is technically true). Guys like Welker and Cruz did put up more points, but they were more than a round or two lower last year (they won't be this year).I own him and tend to be on the conservative side with projections as well- realistically, it's highly unlikely that 10+ WRs taken a round or two later put up the same numbers, but it's also pretty likely that a couple of them do. It's the nature of the beast- players never finish in order of ADP. I'd still take Fitz over those guys however.

Oh for sure. There might be a player that doesn't get drafted in most leagues that outscores him.

 

[FF Ninja]

I've got to agree that you pay an ADP12 price tag for Fitz due to how safe he is to put up numbers. It reminds me of how Peyton was perpetually the QB1 but he usually ended up QB3. Or how LT was the RB1 when he usually finished 2 or 3. Consistency is valuable. You're going to pay a WR2 price for him and you might end up with WR5 numbers. That works out well for smart FF players. We like to min value later in the draft. That's why you do your homework. That's why you've got a list of sleepers. You aren't winning your draft in the first two rounds. You just want those guys to produce.

That being said, I'd still rather have AJ. I expect 1300/8 out of Fitz. AJ has had injury problems, but I'll still take my chances with him. Fitz only managed 90+ ypg once in his career. He's more of a possession guy. But ever since AJ got a decent QB, he's been over 90 ypg every year, save for last year with the recurring injuries and shortened games. People pick on his TDs, but those have also been affected by shorted seasons. From 2007-2010 he's averaged 0.61 TD/gm which is 9.8 TD/16 games.

Not trying to make the thread about AJ, but I think it is worth mentioning since they are WR2 and WR3.

As for the case for guys that could put up 1300/8 (or equivalent) to be had after Fitz, the guys I give the best chance to hit those numbers are Julio Jones (38), Percy Harvin (42), and Miles Austin (45). Steve Smith (43) did it last year on just 129 targets. But they've all got their questions while Fitz is a veritable lock:

Jones - soph slump/health

Harvin - will the rushing attempts be there?

Austin - health/emergence of Bryant

Smith - soph slump for Newton?