Larry Fitzgerald (1 Viewer)

[Badgers Fan]

In 8 games with Skelton at qb- 42 receptions, 753 yards, 6tds.

In 8 games with Kolb- 38 receptions, 658 yards, 2 tds.

As mentioned by Kurt Warner, Skelton takes more chances throwing to Fitz no matter the coverage. Put over 16 games, the numbers with Skelton make Fitz exactly what is normally expected of him, a top 3 wr. While I doubt Fitz would have 2 td's in an 8 game stretch again, his numbers with Kolb (reception and td wise) should at least raise some eyebrows. Most people view him as a sure-fire top 5 wr (#2 drafted wr according to FFC) but his numbers with Kolb play out to a wr2. This off season they will have more time together to mesh. Now this is all assuming Kolb wins the job. Skelton is inaccurate and threw 14 int's over 8 games. However, for Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy purposes, he is probably better off with Skelton. Even in Skelton's 4 game cameo as a rookie, Fitz had some big games- 6 for 72, 9 for 125..and an 11 for 125 but that game Skelton split with Ron Bartel. With Skelton at qb Fitz stays a top 3 wr in my eyes. I think he would get back over the 90 rec mark, the 10 td marc, and well over 1300 yards. With Kolb I'm not sure what he is. As much maligned as Kolb was, statistically his numbers (he basically played 8 games, threw 1 pass in another) double to almost 4,000 yards, an 81.1 qb rating, and a 7.73 YPA. All at the very least, acceptable. But, Fitz didn't see much of that action reception and td wise. So I wonder, where would you put Fitz with Skelton and qb and with Kolb at qb? The most likely scenario is that both Skelton and Kolb get a bunch of starts unless one REALLY runs with the job. With all this in mind, I'm perplexed as to why Fitz is ranked so high. He probably is the 1st or 2nd best receiver for real life purposes (next to Megatron), but for fantasy, I don't think so.

 

[Buck Stop]

yes, he's still top 5

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

DYNo - Yes.

Re-draft? maybe. after Calvin there is a very large tier 2. He is in it

 

[beef]

Best WR in the game. Horribly pathetic crap hole QB.

 

[kutta]

I pretty much agree with the OP's premise. The hope is that with a full training camp, Kolb can get better. And having a (hopefully) legit #2 across from Fitz will help him too.

The bottom line is that both AZ QB's are pretty bad, but I agree Skelton is probably better for Fitz's fantasy value.

 

[TS Garp]

With all this in mind, I'm perplexed as to why Fitz is ranked so high.

Really? Who would you rank above him beyond Megatron? He's shown that he can be extremely productive with poor QB play and he's perhaps the most consistent WR in the game. He's also almost never hurt. Hopefully Floyd will take some pressure off, but, regardless, he's a stud. If Kolb actually gets his act together, he could put up 100/1500/15. But you know that you're almost certain to get at least 85/1100/7. How many other WR's have a better floor than him while still having an incredibly high ceiling?

 

[kutta]

With all this in mind, I'm perplexed as to why Fitz is ranked so high.

Really? Who would you rank above him beyond Megatron? He's shown that he can be extremely productive with poor QB play and he's perhaps the most consistent WR in the game. He's also almost never hurt. Hopefully Floyd will take some pressure off, but, regardless, he's a stud. If Kolb actually gets his act together, he could put up 100/1500/15. But you know that you're almost certain to get at least 85/1100/7. How many other WR's have a better floor than him while still having an incredibly high ceiling?

I agree with this too. I think Fitz is the perfect 2nd round draft pick. You know he's going to play 16 games, and you know he is going to put up pretty good to great numbers. You basically don't have to worry all year about one of your WR slots with him on your team. It's just what you want out of a 2nd round pick.

 

[jurb26]

With all this in mind, I'm perplexed as to why Fitz is ranked so high.

Really? Who would you rank above him beyond Megatron? He's shown that he can be extremely productive with poor QB play and he's perhaps the most consistent WR in the game. He's also almost never hurt. Hopefully Floyd will take some pressure off, but, regardless, he's a stud. If Kolb actually gets his act together, he could put up 100/1500/15. But you know that you're almost certain to get at least 85/1100/7. How many other WR's have a better floor than him while still having an incredibly high ceiling?

I could easily see folks ranking any of these guys ahead of Fitz. Certainly some people will have combinations of guys that could place Fitz out of the top 5.WelkerAJ GreenA. JohnsonWallaceJenningsCruzR. WhiteJ. JonesMarshallS. SmithNicks (depending on recovery)Like it was said before, the 2nd tier of WR is a large group and Fitz is in it. Things could easily arrange so that Fitz is out of the top 5. Actually, they could arrange so that he is pretty well out of it.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

With all this in mind, I'm perplexed as to why Fitz is ranked so high.

Really? Who would you rank above him beyond Megatron? He's shown that he can be extremely productive with poor QB play and he's perhaps the most consistent WR in the game. He's also almost never hurt. Hopefully Floyd will take some pressure off, but, regardless, he's a stud. If Kolb actually gets his act together, he could put up 100/1500/15. But you know that you're almost certain to get at least 85/1100/7. How many other WR's have a better floor than him while still having an incredibly high ceiling?

I could easily see folks ranking any of these guys ahead of Fitz. Certainly some people will have combinations of guys that could place Fitz out of the top 5.WelkerAJ GreenA. JohnsonWallaceJenningsCruzR. WhiteJ. JonesMarshallS. SmithNicks (depending on recovery)Like it was said before, the 2nd tier of WR is a large group and Fitz is in it. Things could easily arrange so that Fitz is out of the top 5. Actually, they could arrange so that he is pretty well out of it.

In non-PPR, most of these players are capable of top-5 numbers, as is Fitz. The difference is most of them have a much lower floor than Fitz. That is a big difference in my opinion and why I have Fitz ranked second.

 

[Deamon]

I think the truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes. Is he a sure-fire top 5? No. Is he likely going to finish at or above where he's drafted at around the 2nd or 3rd wr taken? No. But he's also not going to be as low as some may think and I wouldn't drop him into the WR2 range. With full offseason, and a new threat on the other side of the field now, I see a great season for Fitz. Safe bet as the 2nd wr taken off the board and I think he'll end up kinda between 3rd to 6th best wr this year, making him worthy of that pick.

 

[Shutout]

HE's a top 5, no doubt, even if nothing changes. But I expect Kolb to really make strides this year. We might forget that this was an entirely different system for him and the injuries did not help at all. I expect Kolb to be better and Fitz to be Fitz but show some better consistency and that KEEPS him in the top 5.

 

[Synesthesia]

With all this in mind, I'm perplexed as to why Fitz is ranked so high.

Really? Who would you rank above him beyond Megatron? He's shown that he can be extremely productive with poor QB play and he's perhaps the most consistent WR in the game. He's also almost never hurt. Hopefully Floyd will take some pressure off, but, regardless, he's a stud. If Kolb actually gets his act together, he could put up 100/1500/15. But you know that you're almost certain to get at least 85/1100/7. How many other WR's have a better floor than him while still having an incredibly high ceiling?

I could easily see folks ranking any of these guys ahead of Fitz. Certainly some people will have combinations of guys that could place Fitz out of the top 5.WelkerAJ GreenA. JohnsonWallaceJenningsCruzR. WhiteJ. JonesMarshallS. SmithNicks (depending on recovery)Like it was said before, the 2nd tier of WR is a large group and Fitz is in it. Things could easily arrange so that Fitz is out of the top 5. Actually, they could arrange so that he is pretty well out of it.

I think some of those are a stretch. I couldn't see many people willing to take Marshall as a top 5 WR. I don't think Atlanta is nearly potent enough to land White *and* Jones in someone's top 5- not even potent enough to land just one of them there with any consistency. Smith, Welker, Green, Johnson, Wallace, White, and Jennings are the guys I could see above Fitz, although I'd never find myself making the case for Jennings (lacks elite upside), Wallace (disappeared once Brown broke out), Green (lacks track record, too many 2nd year regressions to make me comfortable with him in top 5), or White (unctainty with Jones, mediocre passing attack). Lowest I could be persuaded to rank him is 5th, behind the Johnsons, Smith, and Welker.

 

[GridironMenace]

No

 

[Badgers Fan]

With all this in mind, I'm perplexed as to why Fitz is ranked so high.

Really? Who would you rank above him beyond Megatron? He's shown that he can be extremely productive with poor QB play and he's perhaps the most consistent WR in the game. He's also almost never hurt. Hopefully Floyd will take some pressure off, but, regardless, he's a stud. If Kolb actually gets his act together, he could put up 100/1500/15. But you know that you're almost certain to get at least 85/1100/7. How many other WR's have a better floor than him while still having an incredibly high ceiling?

I could easily see folks ranking any of these guys ahead of Fitz. Certainly some people will have combinations of guys that could place Fitz out of the top 5.Welker

AJ Green

A. Johnson

Wallace

Jennings

Cruz

R. White

J. Jones

Marshall

S. Smith

Nicks (depending on recovery)

Like it was said before, the 2nd tier of WR is a large group and Fitz is in it. Things could easily arrange so that Fitz is out of the top 5. Actually, they could arrange so that he is pretty well out of it.

I think some of those are a stretch. I couldn't see many people willing to take Marshall as a top 5 WR. I don't think Atlanta is nearly potent enough to land White *and* Jones in someone's top 5- not even potent enough to land just one of them there with any consistency. Smith, Welker, Green, Johnson, Wallace, White, and Jennings are the guys I could see above Fitz, although I'd never find myself making the case for Jennings (lacks elite upside), Wallace (disappeared once Brown broke out), Green (lacks track record, too many 2nd year regressions to make me comfortable with him in top 5), or White (unctainty with Jones, mediocre passing attack). Lowest I could be persuaded to rank him is 5th, behind the Johnsons, Smith, and Welker.

In a PPR league, personally I would rank Marshall in the top 3 or 4.

 

[ATG]

This reminds me how highly Steve Smith was ranked over the past few years. Inferior quarterbacking would always limit his production. Look at the difference Cam made. I dont like the argument that he has a low floor. Why play it safe? Championships arent won that way.

 

[mr roboto]

Wait, Fitz below SS and Marshall? His value has dropped that much?

Buy!

 

[Badgers Fan]

Wait, Fitz below SS and Marshall? His value has dropped that much?Buy!

Well, I play in a ppr league. Fitz will match up against Nnamdi (shadowing #1's this year) and revis. The toughest Marshall has will be Jonathan Joseph, but that's on a sunday night game at home, a game BMarsh will get up for. There is no one questioning Fitz's talent, but even though Kolb is supposed to be decent and Floyd being opposite Fitz should help, I just don't think that with Kolb fitz is a top 5 wr. He'll post some big games but a lot of pedestrian 4-50 type of games. In his 8 games with Kolb, for ppr purposes he had games of 9, 10, 11, 12, and 9. He eclipsed 20 points just once in 8 games (if you don't include 100 yard bonuses). There is nothing wrong with that, and it shows that he does have a "high-floor". But the #2 wr should be a guy at least getting me 15+ in half his games. That's 62.5% of his games with Kolb that he was a middle of the road wr2. With Skelton Fitz had 4 games of at least 22 points. THAT is what I would expect from the receiver getting drafted #2 overall. While Fitz's overall numbers look good from last year, with Kolb he only gave you 3 good weeks out of 8, and that just wont cut it.

 

[lbouchard]

Wait, Fitz below SS and Marshall? His value has dropped that much?Buy!

for 2012 alone, not dynasty value

 

[mr roboto]

Wait, Fitz below SS and Marshall? His value has dropped that much?Buy!

for 2012 alone, not dynasty value

Yea, I've got the dynasty lens with players.

 

[Badgers Fan]

Wait, Fitz below SS and Marshall? His value has dropped that much?Buy!

for 2012 alone, not dynasty value

Yea, I've got the dynasty lens with players.

I'm not sure that changes anything. Fitz will be 29 opening day, Marshall 28. Cutler is 29 so Marshall will have a good, strong armed qb for the reminder of his prime (granted he doesn't punch some girl in a night club). Unless Kolb or Floyd or someone on that roster (Skelton) gets Fitz more opportunities, I can see them being veryyy close in value.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Wait, Fitz below SS and Marshall? His value has dropped that much?Buy!

for 2012 alone, not dynasty value

Yea, I've got the dynasty lens with players.

I'm not sure that changes anything. Fitz will be 29 opening day, Marshall 28. Cutler is 29 so Marshall will have a good, strong armed qb for the reminder of his prime (granted he doesn't punch some girl in a night club). Unless Kolb or Floyd or someone on that roster (Skelton) gets Fitz more opportunities, I can see them being veryyy close in value.

Fitz will likely be close to the top 5 regardless of who the QB is. The only year he hasn't been close in the last 5 was when his QBs were Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and Skelton (rookie year)...among the worst quarterbacking I have ever seen. Marshall has only been a top 5 WR one time in PPR and never in non PPR, plus he is a suspension waiting to happen. Don't get me wrong...I like Marshall quite a bit. But it is a serious stretch and a major gamble to take him ahead of Fitz, knowing that Fitz's floor is probably close to Marshall's ceiling. I think the risk is way too much when there is little chance of a large reward. Maybe they will be fairly close, but I can't imagine a scenario where I would pass on Fitz to take Marshall.

 

[jurb26]

Wait, Fitz below SS and Marshall? His value has dropped that much?Buy!

for 2012 alone, not dynasty value

Yea, I've got the dynasty lens with players.

I'm not sure that changes anything. Fitz will be 29 opening day, Marshall 28. Cutler is 29 so Marshall will have a good, strong armed qb for the reminder of his prime (granted he doesn't punch some girl in a night club). Unless Kolb or Floyd or someone on that roster (Skelton) gets Fitz more opportunities, I can see them being veryyy close in value.

Fitz will likely be close to the top 5 regardless of who the QB is. The only year he hasn't been close in the last 5 was when his QBs were Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and Skelton (rookie year)...among the worst quarterbacking I have ever seen. Marshall has only been a top 5 WR one time in PPR and never in non PPR, plus he is a suspension waiting to happen. Don't get me wrong...I like Marshall quite a bit. But it is a serious stretch and a major gamble to take him ahead of Fitz, knowing that Fitz's floor is probably close to Marshall's ceiling. I think the risk is way too much when there is little chance of a large reward. Maybe they will be fairly close, but I can't imagine a scenario where I would pass on Fitz to take Marshall.

Many seem to think Marshall's floor this year is 90/1,200/6 now that he's reunited with Cutler. That is a higher floor than Fitz. I don't agree with that floor, but that doesn't matter. Many people do agree with it.I'm not sure how Fitz's floor is close to Marshall's ceiling. Marshall put up 1,200 yds and 6 TDs in Mia last year. He would have done just about the same the year prior in Mia as well had he not missed 2 games. Fitz is not a vastly superior player than Marshall right now, regardless of the perception. These guys are ranked right about the same for good reason. To say that Fitz's floor is Marshall's ceiling is very misleading IMO. I say that and I'm not a supporter of Marshall at all.

 

[menobrown]

Larry Fitzgerald is and has been the last few years the safest pick you can make at the WR position if not one of the safest draft picks you can make period.

He has not missed a game since 2007. He showed he was willing to play at less than 100% during the 2010 season but you rarely have to worry about him even being listed on the injury report

He showed you his floor in 2010. Not 100% healthy and with atrocious QB play and he gave you 90 catches for over 1100 yards.

He's one of the most consistent WR's in the game. Since his second season in 2005 he has played 108 regular season games. In that span I think he has a total of 15 or 16 single digit fantasy games with almost half of those coming over the past two seasons. When he had a good QB in Warner he went 39 straight games with double digit fantasy game. That's almost equal to 2.5 seasons of being able to plug a guy in at fairly up and down position and be secured of double digit fantasy points.Even with the bad QB play he's a guy you can plug in at WR and be reasonably assured he's not going to give you a crap day.

For dynasty I tend to be higher on him than most for two additional reasons. He might have to break in a rookie QB next year but I one way or the other the Cardinals figure to upgrade the position over what's he had to work with the past two seasons. Secondly I think his style of play and work ethic is going to allow him to age better than most at the position. He's not a burner so losing speed is not going to be as crushing to him as he relies heavily on timing and strength.

 

[Synesthesia]

Many seem to think Marshall's floor this year is 90/1,200/6 now that he's reunited with Cutler. That is a higher floor than Fitz. I don't agree with that floor, but that doesn't matter. Many people do agree with it.

How is 90/1200/6 a higher floor than Fitz? 90/1200/6 is about 50 yards better than the worst season of Fitzgerald's entire career, not counting his rookie year. Even if Fitz plays injured and the Cards bring back Max Hall, he's still going to get you 90/1200/6. That's his absolute, Armageddon, doomsday scenario. Meanwhile, what kind of numbers will Marshall put up if he gets a minor injury and Cutler goes down? Marshall's floor isn't in the same neighborhood as Fitzgerald's. It's not even in the same state.Edit to add: Fitz also has a lower chance of getting into a bar brawl, getting stabbed by his wife, putting his hand through a TV screen, getting benched by his own coach, faking an injury to get out of practice, or getting called out by his QB in the national press as part of what's wrong with the team. That factors into a player's floor, too.

 

[jurb26]

Many seem to think Marshall's floor this year is 90/1,200/6 now that he's reunited with Cutler. That is a higher floor than Fitz. I don't agree with that floor, but that doesn't matter. Many people do agree with it.

How is 90/1200/6 a higher floor than Fitz? 90/1200/6 is about 50 yards better than the worst season of Fitzgerald's entire career, not counting his rookie year. Even if Fitz plays injured and the Cards bring back Max Hall, he's still going to get you 90/1200/6. That's his absolute, Armageddon, doomsday scenario. Meanwhile, what kind of numbers will Marshall put up if he gets a minor injury and Cutler goes down? Marshall's floor isn't in the same neighborhood as Fitzgerald's. It's not even in the same state.Edit to add: Fitz also has a lower chance of getting into a bar brawl, getting stabbed by his wife, putting his hand through a TV screen, getting benched by his own coach, faking an injury to get out of practice, or getting called out by his QB in the national press as part of what's wrong with the team. That factors into a player's floor, too.

Anthony said Fitz's floor was higher than Marshall's ceiling. There is nothing about comparing the 2 guys floors in my post or his. I'm simply pointing out that it is a pretty ridiculous assertion to say that Fitz's floor is still better than Marshall's ceiling. Especially when a great deal of people seem to be placing their floors at about the same production.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Many seem to think Marshall's floor this year is 90/1,200/6 now that he's reunited with Cutler. That is a higher floor than Fitz. I don't agree with that floor, but that doesn't matter. Many people do agree with it.

How is 90/1200/6 a higher floor than Fitz? 90/1200/6 is about 50 yards better than the worst season of Fitzgerald's entire career, not counting his rookie year. Even if Fitz plays injured and the Cards bring back Max Hall, he's still going to get you 90/1200/6. That's his absolute, Armageddon, doomsday scenario. Meanwhile, what kind of numbers will Marshall put up if he gets a minor injury and Cutler goes down? Marshall's floor isn't in the same neighborhood as Fitzgerald's. It's not even in the same state.Edit to add: Fitz also has a lower chance of getting into a bar brawl, getting stabbed by his wife, putting his hand through a TV screen, getting benched by his own coach, faking an injury to get out of practice, or getting called out by his QB in the national press as part of what's wrong with the team. That factors into a player's floor, too.

Anthony said Fitz's floor was higher than Marshall's ceiling. There is nothing about comparing the 2 guys floors in my post or his. I'm simply pointing out that it is a pretty ridiculous assertion to say that Fitz's floor is still better than Marshall's ceiling. Especially when a great deal of people seem to be placing their floors at about the same production.

Using FBGs scoring, Fitz has had 187 or more fantasy points in 4 of the last 5 years and 5 of the last 7. One of those years was when Fitz's QBs were Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and Skelton (rookie season). I think it is highly unlikely the QB situation this year will be anywhere near as bad as that disaster, so it seems very reasonable to assume, based on history, that Fitz's floor is probably close to that 187 point mark. It would take something unforeseen and unpredictable for Fitz to fall much below those numbers. Fitz has also had 200 or more fantasy points 3 times. He has been a top 5 WR 5 of the last 7 years.Marshall's highest ever fantasy point total is 180 and he has never been a top 5 WR in non-PPR. I believe he has once in PPR. He had seasons with 180 and 176 points with Cutler in Denver. Fitz has had more than that 4 times in the last 5 years and 5 of the last 7. First, that seems to indicate, based on past history, that Marshall has to have a career year just to hit Fitz's floor. I also fail to see how their floor's are even remotely close based on all that.

 

[Eminence]

Many seem to think Marshall's floor this year is 90/1,200/6 now that he's reunited with Cutler. That is a higher floor than Fitz. I don't agree with that floor, but that doesn't matter. Many people do agree with it.

How is 90/1200/6 a higher floor than Fitz? 90/1200/6 is about 50 yards better than the worst season of Fitzgerald's entire career, not counting his rookie year. Even if Fitz plays injured and the Cards bring back Max Hall, he's still going to get you 90/1200/6. That's his absolute, Armageddon, doomsday scenario. Meanwhile, what kind of numbers will Marshall put up if he gets a minor injury and Cutler goes down? Marshall's floor isn't in the same neighborhood as Fitzgerald's. It's not even in the same state.Edit to add: Fitz also has a lower chance of getting into a bar brawl, getting stabbed by his wife, putting his hand through a TV screen, getting benched by his own coach, faking an injury to get out of practice, or getting called out by his QB in the national press as part of what's wrong with the team. That factors into a player's floor, too.

http://m.zimbio.com/Larry+Fitzgerald/articles/4165288/Larry+Fitzgerald+Involved+Domestic+Abuse+Incident

 

[Badgers Fan]

Many seem to think Marshall's floor this year is 90/1,200/6 now that he's reunited with Cutler. That is a higher floor than Fitz. I don't agree with that floor, but that doesn't matter. Many people do agree with it.

How is 90/1200/6 a higher floor than Fitz? 90/1200/6 is about 50 yards better than the worst season of Fitzgerald's entire career, not counting his rookie year. Even if Fitz plays injured and the Cards bring back Max Hall, he's still going to get you 90/1200/6. That's his absolute, Armageddon, doomsday scenario. Meanwhile, what kind of numbers will Marshall put up if he gets a minor injury and Cutler goes down? Marshall's floor isn't in the same neighborhood as Fitzgerald's. It's not even in the same state.Edit to add: Fitz also has a lower chance of getting into a bar brawl, getting stabbed by his wife, putting his hand through a TV screen, getting benched by his own coach, faking an injury to get out of practice, or getting called out by his QB in the national press as part of what's wrong with the team. That factors into a player's floor, too.

Anthony said Fitz's floor was higher than Marshall's ceiling. There is nothing about comparing the 2 guys floors in my post or his. I'm simply pointing out that it is a pretty ridiculous assertion to say that Fitz's floor is still better than Marshall's ceiling. Especially when a great deal of people seem to be placing their floors at about the same production.

Using FBGs scoring, Fitz has had 187 or more fantasy points in 4 of the last 5 years and 5 of the last 7. One of those years was when Fitz's QBs were Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and Skelton (rookie season). I think it is highly unlikely the QB situation this year will be anywhere near as bad as that disaster, so it seems very reasonable to assume, based on history, that Fitz's floor is probably close to that 187 point mark. It would take something unforeseen and unpredictable for Fitz to fall much below those numbers. Fitz has also had 200 or more fantasy points 3 times. He has been a top 5 WR 5 of the last 7 years.Marshall's highest ever fantasy point total is 180 and he has never been a top 5 WR in non-PPR. I believe he has once in PPR. He had seasons with 180 and 176 points with Cutler in Denver. Fitz has had more than that 4 times in the last 5 years and 5 of the last 7. First, that seems to indicate, based on past history, that Marshall has to have a career year just to hit Fitz's floor. I also fail to see how their floor's are even remotely close based on all that.

Let's consider the current facts though. Fitz's biggest years were with a hall of fame quarterback. His past two years combined he averages 85 rec, 1274 yards, 7 td's. Marshall's two years with Cutler (one of those years Cutler did throw only 467 passes, so his overall average isn't much different from his Bear days) he averaged 103 rec, 1295 yards, 6.5 tds. So in that case, for non-ppr it's a deadlock, for ppr it's Marshall by 3 touchdowns (18 rec=3 tds). Now, this year the qb's for Arizona should be expected to be better and Fitz has Floyd opposite..while Marshall and Cutler haven't played together in 3 years. But, it is clear Marshall is in a much better situation. Also, I know many fantasy players ignore schedule when dealing with great talent, but Fitz faces Revis and Nnamdi, Marshall doesn't..that has to be worth something. Since those numbers I showed of Marshall with Cutler and Fitzgerald the past two years are similar, I guess it can be argued that Marshall's high equals Fitz's low, but both those numbers represent current situations (Marshall is with Cutler, Fitz is with a sub-par quarterback situation). If Skelton wins the quarterback job, he seems to have enough faith in Fitz (any competent quarterback should have faith in Fitz, something Kolb needs to learn) to make him a top 3 wr. But, my post is about Kolb. And if Kolb is the quarterback, nothing from last years numbers suggest that Fitz is going to be a top 5 wr.

 

[Ian F]

Many seem to think Marshall's floor this year is 90/1,200/6 now that he's reunited with Cutler. That is a higher floor than Fitz. I don't agree with that floor, but that doesn't matter. Many people do agree with it.

How is 90/1200/6 a higher floor than Fitz? 90/1200/6 is about 50 yards better than the worst season of Fitzgerald's entire career, not counting his rookie year. Even if Fitz plays injured and the Cards bring back Max Hall, he's still going to get you 90/1200/6. That's his absolute, Armageddon, doomsday scenario. Meanwhile, what kind of numbers will Marshall put up if he gets a minor injury and Cutler goes down? Marshall's floor isn't in the same neighborhood as Fitzgerald's. It's not even in the same state.Edit to add: Fitz also has a lower chance of getting into a bar brawl, getting stabbed by his wife, putting his hand through a TV screen, getting benched by his own coach, faking an injury to get out of practice, or getting called out by his QB in the national press as part of what's wrong with the team. That factors into a player's floor, too.

Anthony said Fitz's floor was higher than Marshall's ceiling. There is nothing about comparing the 2 guys floors in my post or his. I'm simply pointing out that it is a pretty ridiculous assertion to say that Fitz's floor is still better than Marshall's ceiling. Especially when a great deal of people seem to be placing their floors at about the same production.

Using FBGs scoring, Fitz has had 187 or more fantasy points in 4 of the last 5 years and 5 of the last 7. One of those years was when Fitz's QBs were Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and Skelton (rookie season). I think it is highly unlikely the QB situation this year will be anywhere near as bad as that disaster, so it seems very reasonable to assume, based on history, that Fitz's floor is probably close to that 187 point mark. It would take something unforeseen and unpredictable for Fitz to fall much below those numbers. Fitz has also had 200 or more fantasy points 3 times. He has been a top 5 WR 5 of the last 7 years.Marshall's highest ever fantasy point total is 180 and he has never been a top 5 WR in non-PPR. I believe he has once in PPR. He had seasons with 180 and 176 points with Cutler in Denver. Fitz has had more than that 4 times in the last 5 years and 5 of the last 7.

First, that seems to indicate, based on past history, that Marshall has to have a career year just to hit Fitz's floor.

I also fail to see how their floor's are even remotely close based on all that.

Let's consider the current facts though. Fitz's biggest years were with a hall of fame quarterback. His past two years combined he averages 85 rec, 1274 yards, 7 td's. Marshall's two years with Cutler (one of those years Cutler did throw only 467 passes, so his overall average isn't much different from his Bear days) he averaged 103 rec, 1295 yards, 6.5 tds. So in that case, for non-ppr it's a deadlock, for ppr it's Marshall by 3 touchdowns (18 rec=3 tds). Now, this year the qb's for Arizona should be expected to be better and Fitz has Floyd opposite..while Marshall and Cutler haven't played together in 3 years. But, it is clear Marshall is in a much better situation. Also, I know many fantasy players ignore schedule when dealing with great talent, but Fitz faces Revis and Nnamdi, Marshall doesn't..that has to be worth something. Since those numbers I showed of Marshall with Cutler and Fitzgerald the past two years are similar, I guess it can be argued that Marshall's high equals Fitz's low, but both those numbers represent current situations (Marshall is with Cutler, Fitz is with a sub-par quarterback situation). If Skelton wins the quarterback job, he seems to have enough faith in Fitz (any competent quarterback should have faith in Fitz, something Kolb needs to learn) to make him a top 3 wr. But, my post is about Kolb. And if Kolb is the quarterback, nothing from last years numbers suggest that Fitz is going to be a top 5 wr.

Did I misunderstand or are people trying to convince us that B Marshall, a WR with
[*]a history of off field issues

[*]playing in a new team with an OC we have never seen before

[*]in a city with bad weather and a terrible field

[*]with an OL that is worse than both his previous team's

[*]who has never had more points than Fitz has had in 5 of the last 7 years

Is safer than Larry Fitzgerald who has posted the stats Anthony indicated above and whose situation is stable (OC etc) or better (someone to draw coverage, QB in 2nd year of system etc.) than the last 2 seasons?

 

[Synesthesia]

Many seem to think Marshall's floor this year is 90/1,200/6 now that he's reunited with Cutler. That is a higher floor than Fitz. I don't agree with that floor, but that doesn't matter. Many people do agree with it.

How is 90/1200/6 a higher floor than Fitz? 90/1200/6 is about 50 yards better than the worst season of Fitzgerald's entire career, not counting his rookie year. Even if Fitz plays injured and the Cards bring back Max Hall, he's still going to get you 90/1200/6. That's his absolute, Armageddon, doomsday scenario. Meanwhile, what kind of numbers will Marshall put up if he gets a minor injury and Cutler goes down? Marshall's floor isn't in the same neighborhood as Fitzgerald's. It's not even in the same state.Edit to add: Fitz also has a lower chance of getting into a bar brawl, getting stabbed by his wife, putting his hand through a TV screen, getting benched by his own coach, faking an injury to get out of practice, or getting called out by his QB in the national press as part of what's wrong with the team. That factors into a player's floor, too.

http://m.zimbio.com/Larry+Fitzgerald/articles/4165288/Larry+Fitzgerald+Involved+Domestic+Abuse+Incident

Cool. Another dozen of those and he'll be as big of a character/suspension/injury/benching risk as Brandon "been dumped by two franchises in the past two years" Marshall.Edit to add: seriously, take a look at Miami's depth chart at receiver. They decided they were better off with THAT and a pair of thirds than they were with Marshall.

 

[Treesarepeopletoo]

Yes. On a side note, what are the odds he breaks Jerry Rice's yardage record?

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Many seem to think Marshall's floor this year is 90/1,200/6 now that he's reunited with Cutler. That is a higher floor than Fitz. I don't agree with that floor, but that doesn't matter. Many people do agree with it.

How is 90/1200/6 a higher floor than Fitz? 90/1200/6 is about 50 yards better than the worst season of Fitzgerald's entire career, not counting his rookie year. Even if Fitz plays injured and the Cards bring back Max Hall, he's still going to get you 90/1200/6. That's his absolute, Armageddon, doomsday scenario. Meanwhile, what kind of numbers will Marshall put up if he gets a minor injury and Cutler goes down? Marshall's floor isn't in the same neighborhood as Fitzgerald's. It's not even in the same state.Edit to add: Fitz also has a lower chance of getting into a bar brawl, getting stabbed by his wife, putting his hand through a TV screen, getting benched by his own coach, faking an injury to get out of practice, or getting called out by his QB in the national press as part of what's wrong with the team. That factors into a player's floor, too.

http://m.zimbio.com/Larry+Fitzgerald/articles/4165288/Larry+Fitzgerald+Involved+Domestic+Abuse+Incident

Cool. Another dozen of those and he'll be as big of a character/suspension/injury/benching risk as Brandon "been dumped by two franchises in the past two years" Marshall.Edit to add: seriously, take a look at Miami's depth chart at receiver. They decided they were better off with THAT and a pair of thirds than they were with Marshall.

That Fitz article was from January of 2009.

 

[fightingillini]

With all this in mind, I'm perplexed as to why Fitz is ranked so high.

Really? Who would you rank above him beyond Megatron? He's shown that he can be extremely productive with poor QB play and he's perhaps the most consistent WR in the game. He's also almost never hurt. Hopefully Floyd will take some pressure off, but, regardless, he's a stud. If Kolb actually gets his act together, he could put up 100/1500/15. But you know that you're almost certain to get at least 85/1100/7. How many other WR's have a better floor than him while still having an incredibly high ceiling?

TS is spot on. After Megatron, the next tier is fairly deep. You have (in no particular order) Fitz, AJ, Jennings, Nicks, R White, Welker, AJ Green and Wallace. AJ has injury issues, Jennings has to share the ball with Jordy Nelson, Finley and others, Nicks is already injured, R White has to worry about the emergence of Julio Jones. Welker now has Lloyd to potentially take away targets, Green hasn't had an elite year (but will in the future), and Wallace isn't a big reception guy. So Fitzgerald is by far the safest pick of the next bunch. He has shown that he can put up 100-1400-14, and you know he's going to catch 85+ passes. Safe pick.That said, I am not convinced Kolb is that good, and whether Fitz is worth an early 2nd round pick is definitely debateable.

 

[rlwomack]

Is there something I'm missing on Fitz? I know he's a beast (top 2-3 wr behind Calvin in dynasty) but as mentioned his QB situation sucks. I've had a guy in my dynasty IDP startup offering him left and right for Marshall and my next year's 1st plus another rookie player. Just curious.

 

[Shutout]

The vast majority building a case against Fitz aren't basing it on Fitz, they are basing it on Kolb. I think that is a mistake because you can't know what you are going to get in Kolb. Everyone remembers Kolb being so ineffective and hurt but what if he comes back, is healthy, and actually has time to learn the system (which was new to him last year)?

That could change things dramatically. And someone already pointed out that even with Skelton, Fitz was hitting about 22 a game so even if Kolb gets benched or hurt, the worst scenario looks pretty good (about 22 a game good).

When you consider that along with the fact that he's durable, he's not going to get into trouble, he's got the best hands in the game, etc, those are all factors that make him a great and safe pick.

 

[azgroover]

He's fat now.

Sell.

 

[Sabertooth]

I think the truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes. Is he a sure-fire top 5? No. Is he likely going to finish at or above where he's drafted at around the 2nd or 3rd wr taken? No. But he's also not going to be as low as some may think and I wouldn't drop him into the WR2 range. With full offseason, and a new threat on the other side of the field now, I see a great season for Fitz. Safe bet as the 2nd wr taken off the board and I think he'll end up kinda between 3rd to 6th best wr this year, making him worthy of that pick.

I agree with your thought process here. The qb situation may limit his upside but his floor is about what we saw last year barring injury.