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Let's say LJ gets 12 carries. I think that's reasonable. Now let's say that Caddy gets 24 carries. I also think that's very reasonable. If Caddy gets absolutely owned and averages a meager 3 yards per carry, LJ would STILL need to average 6 yards per carry to match his production- and don't say that with his line it's no problem, because no KC RB has averaged more than 6 yards per carry in a season.Now, let's say that Caddy breaks a long one again this week. Just one long one. Now his ypc is up to 3.5. Johnson's going to need 7 ypc to match him.
Yes, I think it's foolish, because teams have lit up the Ravens D before, and teams have looked underwhelming against the Raiders D before. If you think Chris Brown is going to get twice as many carries as LJ, then it would require LJ producing at TWICE THE RATE of Brown for them to even have equal value. It happened last week. He also averaged over 10 yards per carry last week. I wouldn't bet on it happening that way again.
I disagree with that statement. The odds that a KC RB scores a TD is better than the odds that Caddy scores, but Caddy's not competing for his TDs. Regardless, TDs aren't the only way to score fantasy points. Plus Caddy's likely to be more involved in the passing game, too.
Anybody who claims to know what the "shark play" is is ignorant. I've been told what the shark play is so many times it makes my head spin. And a lot of times it doesn't pan out. I think the real shark play is realizing that nothing's guaranteed, analyzing your situation, and deciding how badly you need to take a risk to win the game. If you're outclassed and need to swing for the fences, Johnson might be the "shark play". If you're a much better team than your opponent, then playing it safe is the "shark play". Blindly declaring that one player will outproduce another is never the "shark play", because there are so many variables in ceilings, floors, and expected outputs, not only between the two players, but also between every other player on both teams, that need to be analyzed before making a move.It's been my experience that if you have to call yourself a shark... usually you aren't.
You're on, I want a piece of that bet. I'd take Caddy over LJ this week.
I own LJ....not Priest.As much as I'd love to think that LJ might move ahead of Priest in terms of touches per game. I think that outside of injury...there is no way that Priest get's anything close to 50% or less.
Thanks for calling me ignorant. I think you misinterpret my definition of "shark play."
That's always the bottom criteria though Hook whether it's WCOFF or a free Yahoo league.If I knew Larry Johnson got 80 yards and 1 td every week with 10 carries he'd be in all the time.
The Herd knows what he's talking about here. Have any of you guys actually LOOKED at the stats? (and I mean including last season?). Have you actually watched LJ carry the ball? I swear after watching him run last week it's almost an automatic first down or touchdown every time they give him the ball. How can Vermeil NOT get this guy involved in a big way?
I would agree with this statement, I don't know a person that wouldn't.But what does this statement mean??
But this argument doesn't address the concept of rotations based upon playing a full series. When viewed from the "Holmes in for two series/Johnson in for one approach", then Johnson could easily see more than just 9 to 10 carries if he doesn't break off long ones like he did last week, thus staying in for more plays. This also addresses the goal line issue: he won't be pulled once they're in the redzone because he's the designated back for that given series of plays.
When I was watching on Sunday, I just couldnt help but be amazed and wonder to myself what kind of #s he would put up if he was the only ball carrier there.
At a minimum I think he gets you 80 total yards and a TD, with upside of 200 total yards and 3 TDs. He's that good.
Is that etched in stone, because if it is fine. I can't argue with that.But if the game is tied 24-24 with 3 minutes to play and the Chiefs are inside the 5 yard line. If they don't have their best back in there..........whoever Vermeil thinks that person is that's a crappy way to coach. You don't say......."well, uh it's this guys turn in the rotation, can't screw that baby up." I say.........I'm putting my best player in and we're running the F'n ball down the D's throat so we win the game.
How about looking at last year's stats at the end of the season for him. If you're a subcriber here at FBG, look under players and you'll see that they were absolutely amazing.When I was watching on Sunday, I just couldnt help but be amazed and wonder to myself what kind of #s he would put up if he was the only ball carrier there.
At a minimum I think he gets you 80 total yards and a TD, with upside of 200 total yards and 3 TDs. He's that good.
And a RB getting the ball 10 times during the game isn't capped?
I know i quoted you, but i was actually speaking thru you to otis who talked about the capping, sorry for the confusion. I couldn't find his initial post so i quoted yours to get to his, make sense
Deciding between Caddy and LJ, these thoughts pass through my mind:- Caddy's matchup is dreadful, and I think he is a bit overrated value wise b/c of 1 run last week that truthfully, wasn't all that impressive except for the fact that he wasn't caught from behind.
Don't care -- START LJ WITH CONFIDENCE!!!I smell what your cooking!Also starting LJ over Caddy this week.
I know about his stats from last year. Look at them and then think that he is a year betterHow about looking at last year's stats at the end of the season for him. If you're a subcriber here at FBG, look under players and you'll see that they were absolutely amazing.When I was watching on Sunday, I just couldnt help but be amazed and wonder to myself what kind of #s he would put up if he was the only ball carrier there.
At a minimum I think he gets you 80 total yards and a TD, with upside of 200 total yards and 3 TDs. He's that good.
In all of the leagues I play in, an RB can't score points unless he touches the ball. Also, in every league I play in, the more times a player touches the ball, the more chances he has to score points. Johnson has 10-12 chances to score points. He has 10-12 chances to break a long one. Caddy, on the other hand, has 20-24 chances to score points. He has 20-24 chances to break a long one. I'd rather have 24 lottery tickets than 12 lottery tickets, even if the 12 lottery tickets all have last week's winning number on them.
And you can thank yourself for throwing down the challenge when I bump this on Sunday night and laugh in your face at the thought that playing an RB who is likely to get less than half as many carries is the "shark move".You can thank yourself for the "ignorant" comment when I bump this on Sunday night and smear your face in the stench you left in this thread, GB.
Are you so sure about that? I mean, if it's a tight game, do you REALLY think that Vermeil would keep in the unproven Johnson in favor of the single best goal line back since Emmitt Smith in his prime? Just because a coach SAYS something doesn't mean that's how it's going to play out. Remember Mike Tice guaranteeing Onterrio Smith would put up 150 yards?Regardless, even if he does stay in at the goal line, he's only got a 33% chance of scoring KC's rushing TDs. Meanwhile, I'd put Caddy's chance of scoring his team's rushing TDs at closer to 90%. Take that for what it's worth.
I agree that if the game is on the line, Vermeil will have his best back in there. And with all due respect to Larry Johnson, who had a nice game last week, that's Priest Holmes.Seriously, Larry Johnson had a nice game last week. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HE IS A BETTER RB THAN PRIEST HOLMES. THERE'S A REASON WHY PRIEST HOLMES IS GETTING THE MAJORITY OF THE TOUCHES.
I don't know why, but I found this thread amazingly amussing thus far... from both sides of the arguement.Just wanted to throw out there that KC will be down 2 starting linemen in this game, one being Roaf, their very best. The Oak run D looked very solid vs NE and Dillon and I think they will surprise in this game as well. KC will be putting it's trust in Green's arm for this one, Oak has one of the most pathetic pass rushes I have seen in a while. Buyer beware of the RBBC in KC this week. 
I have a lot less of a problem starting Johnson over Bennett. Again, for a fantasy player to be productive, he needs the touches, and I don't see Bennett getting many against a stingy Baltimore pass defense, especially since he's likely to draw Chris McCallister.I am starting LJ and Priest. I am putting LJ in at my flex position. I am sitting either D Bennet or R Smith. Right now I am leaning on sitting Bennet as I think R Smith is going to have a big day against SD. My other RB is K Jones.
So what do you think of LJ over D Bennet? I think its worth a shot.
I'll suggest you both go back and take a look at LJs numbers from last year.In every game where he had more than a single carry last year with the exception of one game, LJ scored. The one game where he did not he had 10 carries. However, he scored once in another 10-carry performance, and TWICE in another 7-carry performance.
Perhaps based on talent alone, but not in terms of O-line or number of touches.I didnt even have to think hard about this but I would say the majority of the board would agree when Deuce backed up Ricky in NO he was a helluva lot better 2nd stringer than LJ.JJA over LJ?
JJA over LJ?
Yes, best ever. It remains to be seen if his talent is better than Deuce, but I fail to see any relevance his YPC behind a weak line. We are talking about production, not talent.Best 2nd string back ever????????????? Where are you coming up with this stuff? He's as much a product of his offensive line as anything. Do you think he'd be putting up anything close to his YPC in Arizona or Detroit? He's a good back, but there are a lot of good backs who would put up solid numbers behind that line. Your complete ignorance to blanket him and say he's the best ever at 2nd string is silly to say the least. Where is that ignore tool and how do I use it? I just found my first candidate for multiple reasons.JJA over LJ?
JJA over LJ?
I think KC will lose if they rely on Green's arm. They are a running team and they go as far as either Priest or LJ will take them. Still I wont be surprised if they have some trouble this weekend and LJ isnt a stud again. I'm going with Portis (over LJ) now that the KC line is injured.
Just wanted to throw out there that KC will be down 2 starting linemen in this game, one being Roaf, their very best. The Oak run D looked very solid vs NE and Dillon and I think they will surprise in this game as well. KC will be putting it's trust in Green's arm for this one, Oak has one of the most pathetic pass rushes I have seen in a while. Buyer beware of the RBBC in KC this week.
