Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

[The Jacket]

Same point as above. You mean to tell me that Vermeil just stumbled upon three of the greatest RBs we've seen, what is that if not coincidence?

Faulk's been pretty good since Vermeil left. LJ was a first-round pick.What coincedence is there? That he's coached some great backs? I understand what you're getting at, but I'd only see it as a valid point if Vermeil had got such production out of talentless backs who were unknown before he coached them and failures after he stopped coaching them.Definitely not the case with Faulk, and I personally very much doubt that Johnson isn't going to be an elite back now that Vermeil has retired.

 

[Tau837]

But it wasn't until Willie Roaf came in 2002 that the offense became dominant. It's all about the players.

I'm not sure this matters in the scheme of this thread, but I'm not sure this is true.In 2000, with Gunther Cunningham as coach, KC ranked 25th in rushing and 8th in overall offense.In 2001, Vermeil's first season in KC, KC ranked 6th in rushing and 4th in overall offense... without Roaf.In 2002, KC added Roaf and ranked 3rd in rushing and 5th in overall offense.Sure, there was a good improvement in the running game in 2002... but look at the improvement in Vermeil's first season. That is where KC's running game took the big leap.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... Edwards may actually lean more heavily this season on the passing game ... than he has in the past?

Personally I think he will be forced to because KC will be building the defense from the ground up(just like every season it seems) and likely won't be very good on the defensive side of the ball this year.

KC is a team in transition. And the nucleus of the team as it stands right now(Roaf/Shields/Green/Kennison/maybe even Gonzales?) won't be around when the smoke clears. I really like Edwards and thought he was a very good hire but asking any first year head coach to come in, rebuild a bad defense and take a team that missed the playoffs last season deep into the playoffs this season is a little too much.

The argument that the KC defense has not been good, is trying to transition to be good but it will continue to be bad. The argument links the impact of the poor defense to the stellar KC rushing attack. This argument is that the stellar KC rushing attack will falter due to the poor and unstable KC defense.KC has been devoting their efforts to improving their defense. Last year they drafted Derrick Johnson in the first and he was/is solid and should improve. They signed a solid CB in Patrick Sirtain and took a stab with former DROY Kendrell Bell. They also uncovered a pass rushing gem in Jared Allen. They haven't come together but even if they fail to improve their defense KC has rushed the ball well in the past with poor defense.

So it is my opinion that this the line of reason that the KC defense has been poor and they will be starting from scratch isn't correct. But even if the Chiefs continue to struggle defensively it does not make sense to argue that their poor defense will adversely impact thier rushing game since it has never been the ruin of their stellar rushing attack in the past but again that is my opinion.

 

[matuski]

When I read th posts using games 9-17 of a season as reference for an upcoming season it reminds me of KJ in Detroit and the hype 8 games earned him....

 

[joffer]

When I read th posts using games 9-17 of a season as reference for an upcoming season it reminds me of KJ in Detroit and the hype 8 games earned him....

the level of performance for those 8 games in the two cases is slightly different.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

When I read th posts using games 9-17 of a season as reference for an upcoming season it reminds me of KJ in Detroit and the hype 8 games earned him....

And JJ in Dallas....And Willis in Buffalo....And Willie Green in Cleveland.People seem to love taking guys that had a hot finish to a season and assuming it's going to translate into a full season's worth of the same the next year, but I've never really seen any study on this actually working out, and more often then not it seems to lend to disappointment more than anything else.

 

[joffer]

When I read th posts using games 9-17 of a season as reference for an upcoming season it reminds me of KJ in Detroit and the hype 8 games earned him....

And JJ in Dallas....And Willis in Buffalo....And Willie Green in Cleveland.People seem to love taking guys that had a hot finish to a season and assuming it's going to translate into a full season's worth of the same the next year, but I've never really seen any study on this actually working out, and more often then not it seems to lend to disappointment more than anything else.

ok, so use the whole 2005 season. I'll settle for that.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

What coincedence is there? That he's coached some great backs?

Again....how many RBs have put up TDs with that efficiency in the last decade? 4 (Priest, Faulk, LJ, Alexander)? And 3 of them came from the same coach? If it's your point that it's just because those 3 were all great, legendary backs then how is that anything but a huge, huge coincidence?

I understand what you're getting at, but I'd only see it as a valid point if Vermeil had got such production out of talentless backs who were unknown before he coached them and failures after he stopped coaching them.

There's a difference between talented backs and 25 TD backs. Some of the best RBs in history never came close to touching 25 touchdowns. Faulk was a great RB pre-Vermeil, I'll give you that. But even in that time he barely scored half those 26 TDs in one season. What percentage of 10-14 TD backs turn into 20+ TD backs? 5%? Probably less but we'll be conservative.Now what percentage of undrafted FA RBs turn into 25+ TD backs? 0.001%? Because that's just what Priest Holmes did. He was actually benched in favor of a RB that has scored double digit TDs all of once in his career, yet with Vermeil he's an NFL record breaker? Like Faulk, he played for another coach pre-Vermeil and didn't come close to the production he experienced under Vermeil.Larry Johnson. Sure, he was a late-first round pick, what percentage of late first-round RB's end up 20+ TD backs? 0.5%?So we've got .05 * .0001 * .005 = 0.000000025 = 0.0000025%Sure, maybe the numbers aren't representative of real-life representative things, but the bottom line is you pick out a 5-year veteran back who averaged 8 TDs per year in his prior three seasons, an undrafted free agent back, and a late-1st round draft pick at RB and the chances that ALL THREE magically develope into three extraordinarily talented backs that crush NFL records left and right are beyond infinitessible. That would be roughly akin to Jamal Lewis, Marcell Shipp, and Chris Perry all breaking or nearly breaking the single season TD-record in the next 3 to 4 years. Now, outside of the three falling into a system that churns out FF stats, what are the chances of the three all doing so on hidden talent alone?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

When I read th posts using games 9-17 of a season as reference for an upcoming season it reminds me of KJ in Detroit and the hype 8 games earned him....

And JJ in Dallas....And Willis in Buffalo....And Willie Green in Cleveland.People seem to love taking guys that had a hot finish to a season and assuming it's going to translate into a full season's worth of the same the next year, but I've never really seen any study on this actually working out, and more often then not it seems to lend to disappointment more than anything else.

ok, so use the whole 2005 season. I'll settle for that.

My point wasn't actually to say anything about LJ in particular, but rather the issue of late season performance leading to overrated players the next year, so I suppose it was a bit off-topic.Despite the way thing's probably look right now, I'm not predicting some huge fallout for LJ this coming year. I just think Vermeil is kind of getting the short end of the stick here, and fwiw I think LJ will be ok for another year with most guys sticking around and coach's systems generally leaving behind an additional year of success the year after they leave as the it takes the new coach another year to weed out the old system from the player's minds and bring in his own.