Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Pnishthm]

So I still see Larry Johnson ranked #3 overall yet when I hear anyone talk about him it's about how his line is not nearly what it used to be or how questionable the Chiefs QB play is or how him holding out makes him more likely to get injured. With all of these things being mentioned, can anyone justify using their 3rd overall pick on LJ? I do not lean one way or the other, just trying to get a better feel as to why he's still being ranked so highly.

 

[Routilla]

So I still see Larry Johnson ranked #3 overall yet when I hear anyone talk about him it's about how his line is not nearly what it used to be or how questionable the Chiefs QB play is or how him holding out makes him more likely to get injured. With all of these things being mentioned, can anyone justify using their 3rd overall pick on LJ? I do not lean one way or the other, just trying to get a better feel as to why he's still being ranked so highly.

I'm guessing it's because he puts up huge numbers regardless of his surrounding cast.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Anybody remember all the concern with LDT's line a year and/or two ago? Not anymore.

Paralysis through analysis.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

So I still see Larry Johnson ranked #3 overall yet when I hear anyone talk about him it's about how his line is not nearly what it used to be or how questionable the Chiefs QB play is or how him holding out makes him more likely to get injured. With all of these things being mentioned, can anyone justify using their 3rd overall pick on LJ? I do not lean one way or the other, just trying to get a better feel as to why he's still being ranked so highly.

I'm guessing it's because he puts up huge numbers regardless of his surrounding cast.

Averaging over 2000 combined yards and 20 TD's over the last two seasons will do that. Even if he declines a little, i can't see him anywhere out of the top 5 unless he misses time. Plain and simple, he is a beast.

 

[twitch]

LJ at 2 or 3 still makes the most sense no matter the circumstanes. He doesnt get hurt, and he puts up #s. If he falls to 5 behind LT2, Jackson, Gore and Addai, dont even hold your breath...just thank the guys ahead of you and make the obvious pick.

 

[bocksheesh]

I have the #3 pick, and am leaning strongly towards LJ (assuming his holdout is over).

I too have the same concerns that others do (declining OLine, iffy QB, no WRs, Herm Edwards), but when I go back and look at all these negative factors, I essentially see the same situation as last season - when LJ had a great year.

Last season, the OLine was clearly not what it once was with Roaf retiring, Trent Green went out at the beginning of the season leaving them with Huard at QB (who was arguably better than Green), their WRs stunk then, and Herm Edwards is Herm Edwards.

So, how is his situation in KC this season all that much different from last season?

Where am I wrong here?

 

[lebowski]

So, how is his situation in KC this season all that much different from last season?

Exactly.

 

[Routilla]

So, how is his situation in KC this season all that much different from last season?

Where am I wrong here?

That's been my argument all along. The OL was allegedly supposed to falter last year based on threads in the off-season and pre-season. I don't think it's one of the best OL in the league but it doesn't have to be with LJ. I think he's the obvious #3RB. The hold-out situation is the only area of concern and it sounds like they are getting closer on that.

 

[bocksheesh]

So, how is his situation in KC this season all that much different from last season?

Where am I wrong here?

That's been my argument all along. The OL was allegedly supposed to falter last year based on threads in the off-season and pre-season. I don't think it's one of the best OL in the league but it doesn't have to be with LJ. I think he's the obvious #3RB. The hold-out situation is the only area of concern and it sounds like they are getting closer on that.

If y'all haven't done so, it's worth listening to Cecil Lammey's podcast with the local KC Chiefs reporter. Search for it if you can't find it.The reporter speaks directly to the OLine situation and compares and contrasts it last seasons. The central gist was that last season they'd lost Roaf and were switching players around on the line and there was little cohesion. The reporter suggested that was the big problem last season.

This season, they have McIntosh hurt for another few weeks, but the reporter didn't think that was that big of a deal. The bigger concern was over Perry who pretty much hasn't played football the past 2 seasons. But the OLine has had the opportunity to settle into their positions and play with each other more.

That said, the reporter noted that Michael Bennett rushed for 8 yards in the last preseason game and one of the OLinemen was saying that they need to play more physical.

Soooooo, all of that is to say that the OLine situation in KC is no worse than it was last year, and maybe marginally better.

How's that for inconclusive information?

 

[Raiders Fan]

So, how is his situation in KC this season all that much different from last season?

Where am I wrong here?

That's been my argument all along. The OL was allegedly supposed to falter last year based on threads in the off-season and pre-season. I don't think it's one of the best OL in the league but it doesn't have to be with LJ. I think he's the obvious #3RB. The hold-out situation is the only area of concern and it sounds like they are getting closer on that.

If y'all haven't done so, it's worth listening to Cecil Lammey's podcast with the local KC Chiefs reporter. Search for it if you can't find it.The reporter speaks directly to the OLine situation and compares and contrasts it last seasons. The central gist was that last season they'd lost Roaf and were switching players around on the line and there was little cohesion. The reporter suggested that was the big problem last season.

This season, they have McIntosh hurt for another few weeks, but the reporter didn't think that was that big of a deal. The bigger concern was over Perry who pretty much hasn't played football the past 2 seasons. But the OLine has had the opportunity to settle into their positions and play with each other more.

That said, the reporter noted that Michael Bennett rushed for 8 yards in the last preseason game and one of the OLinemen was saying that they need to play more physical.

Soooooo, all of that is to say that the OLine situation in KC is no worse than it was last year, and maybe marginally better.

How's that for inconclusive information?

Don't quote facts let people believe all the what if's. LJ value has fallen not because of injury. Not because of age. Not because of skills set decline. He has dropped because of his workload and a lot of IF'S.. LJ won't be good because he carried the ball to much. He won't be good because they lost a solid linemen.. He won't be good because he is bound to get hurt. This is how people get value.. I am having my keeper league draft in 1 league and here are some of the early picks. 1.1 RB Marshawn Lynch®

1.2 RB Adrian Peterson®

1.3 RB Jamal Lewis

1.4 RB Marion Barber

1.5 RB Carnell Williams

1.6 RB Clinton Portis

Look at the picks before Portis went. It is amazing how much value you can get from a little bad news and fear..

So let you all worry warts continue. I will love to get solid value. I personally don't see LJ having any worse then last season and I still think last year was a down year..

 

[thebestupsman]

I think he will be strong IF and when he plays this year. Peterson said that he still don't think that they are that close to an agreement.

 

[nygiants56]

I think he will be strong IF and when he plays this year. Peterson said that he still don't think that they are that close to an agreement.

Fear and Loathing in KC.they'll sign him, don't worry.

 

[BigRed]

Now he's signed and Huard is the starter - as some of us knew should have happened all along. freakin duh. And while that helps, I drafted him and I admit I'm nervous about it. There's no guarantee Huard will repeat last year to say the least, the OL issues, the iffy O issues in general. Agree/not?

 

[bocksheesh]

Now he's signed and Huard is the starter - as some of us knew should have happened all along. freakin duh. And while that helps, I drafted him and I admit I'm nervous about it. There's no guarantee Huard will repeat last year to say the least, the OL issues, the iffy O issues in general. Agree/not?

I posted earlier in this thread about how I was pretty set on Larry Johnson - even before he signed his contract.I've reversed course and am a Gore guy at #3.Bottom line: I, like a lot of people, am pretty torn with this pick but the tie breaker for me is two factors.1. Early schedule - LJ's is brutal; Gores is nice. Both players got numbers against very good defenses last year, but LJ hits 5 straight tough defenses and that has me a bit worried as the rest of the Chiefs offense struggles.2. Upside - We've seen LJ's ceiling, it's been incredible, but I don't see him doing better than what he did last season. Whereas with Gore, I think we've yet to see his ceiling. He could definitely increase his TDs and perhaps even his yardage. I like that upside.

 

[One]

1. Early schedule - LJ's is brutal; Gores is nice. Both players got numbers against very good defenses last year, but LJ hits 5 straight tough defenses and that has me a bit worried as the rest of the Chiefs offense struggles.

I like your pick, but I'm not sure I agree with this rational.. I'm thinkin' the later schedule would be a little more important, but that's just me. wks 14-16..G: MIN, CIN, TBLJ: @DEN, TEN, @DETregardless.. gratz, you've got yourself a stud in Frank Gore.

 

[Ilov80s]

Here is why LJ is a great pick at 2 or 3:

-There seems to be some myth that KC's oline was good last year. It wasn't. It was dreadful. So I throw that reasoning out the window.

- People say, Larry won't get 400+ carries so his stats will fall off. Lets say Larry loses 20% of his carries (about 5 less a game/ 333 total for the year)and loses 1/3 of his TDs.

Seems like a major dropoff right? This would make LJ a bust?

Actually, It would give Larry 1841 yards and 13 TDs. Standard scoring would make that 262 points, 16 points a game, and 2 points better then Frank Gore. It would have been good enough to make LJ the 4th best back in 06.

 

[bocksheesh]

Here is why LJ is a great pick at 2 or 3:

-There seems to be some myth that KC's oline was good last year. It wasn't. It was dreadful. So I throw that reasoning out the window.

- People say, Larry won't get 400+ carries so his stats will fall off. Lets say Larry loses 20% of his carries (about 5 less a game/ 333 total for the year)and loses 1/3 of his TDs.

Seems like a major dropoff right? This would make LJ a bust?

Actually, It would give Larry 1841 yards and 13 TDs. Standard scoring would make that 262 points, 16 points a game, and 2 points better then Frank Gore. It would have been good enough to make LJ the 4th best back in 06.

You seem to be making a fair amount of assumptions with your LJ calculations. By merely dropping LJ's carries and projecting an identical YPC, you're assuming a lot. What if LJ's carries decrease and his YPC decrease? What if KC's offense plays as poorly as it has in the preseason and there are fewer overall redzone opportunities?Conversely, in comparing LJ to Gore, you seem to be assuming that Gore does not increase his production - particularly in TDs where he has some real upside.

None of this is to dog LJ. I think it's still really close as to who to take at #3. But you're making a number of assumptions about LJ's 2007 performance that I'm not sure you can really make.

 

[Ilov80s]

Here is why LJ is a great pick at 2 or 3:

-There seems to be some myth that KC's oline was good last year. It wasn't. It was dreadful. So I throw that reasoning out the window.

- People say, Larry won't get 400+ carries so his stats will fall off. Lets say Larry loses 20% of his carries (about 5 less a game/ 333 total for the year)and loses 1/3 of his TDs.

Seems like a major dropoff right? This would make LJ a bust?

Actually, It would give Larry 1841 yards and 13 TDs. Standard scoring would make that 262 points, 16 points a game, and 2 points better then Frank Gore. It would have been good enough to make LJ the 4th best back in 06.

You seem to be making a fair amount of assumptions with your LJ calculations. By merely dropping LJ's carries and projecting an identical YPC, you're assuming a lot. What if LJ's carries decrease and his YPC decrease? What if KC's offense plays as poorly as it has in the preseason and there are fewer overall redzone opportunities?Conversely, in comparing LJ to Gore, you seem to be assuming that Gore does not increase his production - particularly in TDs where he has some real upside.

None of this is to dog LJ. I think it's still really close as to who to take at #3. But you're making a number of assumptions about LJ's 2007 performance that I'm not sure you can really make.

Ofcourse Larry's ypc could drop, but it seems more likely that Frank Gore's would be the one sliding down. LJ averaged 4.3 in 06, nothing special and certainly a number that he could attain again. Gore averaged 5.4- one of the best averages in NFL history. So if we are to talk about anyone's ypc dropping, it should be Gore's. I did account for fewer redzone opportunities by reducing LJ's TDs by 33%. While LJ is likely to get less carries a game, I can promise you, no RB is cutting into his GL carries.

I like Gore a lot and I expect him to increase his TDs- nowhere am I arguing that Gore doesn't outproduce LJ in 07. Simply, I was showing that LJ is very deserving of the 3rd pick. If LJ takes a massive drop, he would still finish in the upper echelon of RBs. If Gore was to suffer a similar drop, he finish about 10th in total points and about 13th in ppg.

 

[BigRed]

Thx. I'm still nervous though.

 

[One]

One thing I don't hear mentioned much is that Norv Turner is no longer Gore's OC.

I never really had to make the decision since I landed LJ and Gore at 1.4 in two different drafts, but If I had to chose, I'd go with LJ by just a sliver. I think we've seen something close to Gore's ceiling in Turner's PPR RB-friendly offense.

 

[bocksheesh]

One thing I don't hear mentioned much is that Norv Turner is no longer Gore's OC. I never really had to make the decision since I landed LJ and Gore at 1.4 in two different drafts, but If I had to chose, I'd go with LJ by just a sliver. I think we've seen something close to Gore's ceiling in Turner's PPR RB-friendly offense.

Why do you expect the SF offense to change much after Norv Turner left? Why would they scrap a system that worked well for them? That doesn't make sense.

 

[Blackstar]

If you're scared, get a dog.

The bottom line comes down to this....

if you draft FG or LJ, it doesn't matter. They will put up similar numbers. If you can't draft a decent team around those 2, you suck, and anything they do is just dry humping air.

 

[MDSkinner]

One thing I don't hear mentioned much is that Norv Turner is no longer Gore's OC. I never really had to make the decision since I landed LJ and Gore at 1.4 in two different drafts, but If I had to chose, I'd go with LJ by just a sliver. I think we've seen something close to Gore's ceiling in Turner's PPR RB-friendly offense.

Why do you expect the SF offense to change much after Norv Turner left? Why would they scrap a system that worked well for them? That doesn't make sense.

Good question.Ask Art Shell, I suppose, cause that is what he did, right?

 

[One]

One thing I don't hear mentioned much is that Norv Turner is no longer Gore's OC. I never really had to make the decision since I landed LJ and Gore at 1.4 in two different drafts, but If I had to chose, I'd go with LJ by just a sliver. I think we've seen something close to Gore's ceiling in Turner's PPR RB-friendly offense.

Why do you expect the SF offense to change much after Norv Turner left? Why would they scrap a system that worked well for them? That doesn't make sense.

OC's don't just come in and mock the game plans and play calling the from the team's past OC. They may be handed a playbook filled with 300+ plays, but how/when they use them is another story. Turner's had years of NFL experience, unlike Hostler. SF had to scramble to find a new OC when Turner left town.. They came up with Jim Hostler, the old QB coach with no experience at OC. It's far from a deal-breaker since Gore's so talented, but not something to toss aside.One

 

[Ilov80s]

If you're scared, get a dog.

The bottom line comes down to this....

if you draft FG or LJ, it doesn't matter. They will put up similar numbers. If you can't draft a decent team around those 2, you suck, and anything they do is just dry humping air.

You similar like last year when LJ outscored Gore by 65 points?

 

[Blackstar]

If you're scared, get a dog.

The bottom line comes down to this....

if you draft FG or LJ, it doesn't matter. They will put up similar numbers. If you can't draft a decent team around those 2, you suck, and anything they do is just dry humping air.

You similar like last year when LJ outscored Gore by 65 points?

FG will produce more, LJ will produce about the same or less than last year. so yes, similar. They put up almost identical rushing numbers. LJ had the TD advantage. FG will score more TDs this year.

 

[turleyfan]

If you're scared, get a dog.

The bottom line comes down to this....

if you draft FG or LJ, it doesn't matter. They will put up similar numbers. If you can't draft a decent team around those 2, you suck, and anything they do is just dry humping air.

Outstanding post.

 

[CalBear]

One thing I don't hear mentioned much is that Norv Turner is no longer Gore's OC. I never really had to make the decision since I landed LJ and Gore at 1.4 in two different drafts, but If I had to chose, I'd go with LJ by just a sliver. I think we've seen something close to Gore's ceiling in Turner's PPR RB-friendly offense.

Why do you expect the SF offense to change much after Norv Turner left? Why would they scrap a system that worked well for them? That doesn't make sense.

SF's offense ranked #26 in yardage and #24 in points.

 

[Ilov80s]

If you're scared, get a dog.

The bottom line comes down to this....

if you draft FG or LJ, it doesn't matter. They will put up similar numbers. If you can't draft a decent team around those 2, you suck, and anything they do is just dry humping air.

You similar like last year when LJ outscored Gore by 65 points?

FG will produce more, LJ will produce about the same or less than last year. so yes, similar. They put up almost identical rushing numbers. LJ had the TD advantage. FG will score more TDs this year.

Any concerns about Gore's silly 5.4 ypc coming down to reality?

 

[ceo3west]

1. Early schedule - LJ's is brutal; Gores is nice. Both players got numbers against very good defenses last year, but LJ hits 5 straight tough defenses and that has me a bit worried as the rest of the Chiefs offense struggles.

I like your pick, but I'm not sure I agree with this rational.. I'm thinkin' the later schedule would be a little more important, but that's just me. wks 14-16..G: MIN, CIN, TBLJ: @DEN, TEN, @DETregardless.. gratz, you've got yourself a stud in Frank Gore.

There are going to be a LOT of disappointed Frank Gore owners out there this year.

 

[Blackstar]

If you're scared, get a dog.

The bottom line comes down to this....

if you draft FG or LJ, it doesn't matter. They will put up similar numbers. If you can't draft a decent team around those 2, you suck, and anything they do is just dry humping air.

You similar like last year when LJ outscored Gore by 65 points?

FG will produce more, LJ will produce about the same or less than last year. so yes, similar. They put up almost identical rushing numbers. LJ had the TD advantage. FG will score more TDs this year.

Any concerns about Gore's silly 5.4 ypc coming down to reality?

not really because(as you know) it'll even out as his carries increase... 312 carries(FG's carries last year) @ 5.4 ypc = 1695

325 carries(tiki's carries last year) @ 5.2 ypc = 1695

341 carries(R.johnson's carries last year) @ 4.97 ypc = 1695

now, 416 carries(LJ) @ 5.4 ypc = 2246 and that's not happening.

FWIW, I've got pick 3 on Saturday and I've been flip flopping since I got my draft number a month ago.

Do you go with LJ who:

is a freak

has no injury history

doesn't have much milage on his legs

***IS*** THE OFFENSE IN KC

Gets better at the end of seasons

has a pretty cake 14,15,16 foresight schedule

but:

did (technically)get overworked last year

is on a declining offensive team

(technically)can't keep up the torrid pace he's shown for 2+ seasons

OR FG who:

is also a freak

is younger, faster, lighter, has "pull away" speed vs. "not get caught from behind" speed

is potentially just as strong

is on an upswinging team

will get more touches than he did last year

is more of a receiving threat

just really wants to be the best football player he can be(proof: Took LT's advice, stopped drinking, shed 5 pounds; ran up mountains with tires on his back.. who does that???)

led the league last year in 20+ yard running plays(15; 3 more than LT and Willie Parker) and second(7) behind LT(8) in 40+ yard plays.

but:

has an injury history(although, those knee injuries happened a long time ago, and as Edge will attest to, it takes at least 2 years to come back fully healthy from them. Edge hasn't been hurt since his career threatening knee injury in 2001)

has a broken hand

had fumble issues(which he seems to have corrected in the second half of the season)

has the technically more difficult 14,15,16 schedule(but they're all at home and I don't really consider TB(wk16;16th ranked runD last year) an upper echelon D anymore and Cincy(15;15) DEFINITELY isn't. You'll need your team to pick up the slack vs. Minn(14;1))

Either way, I won't be pulling my hair out at the end of the draft thinking I screwed up my first pick.

 

[One]

Either way, I won't be pulling my hair out at the end of the draft thinking I screwed up my first pick.

Exactly, it's a win-win. ...you might even be wise to consider trading to the 4th spot. I did and it worked out great.

 

[Blackstar]

Either way, I won't be pulling my hair out at the end of the draft thinking I screwed up my first pick.

Exactly, it's a win-win. ...you might even be wise to consider trading to the 4th spot. I did and it worked out great.

hah. funny you mention that. I almost traded my 1st, 2nd, and 4th picks for the 5spot's 1st, 2nd and 4th. My thinking was, I potentially could still get one of the 2 because the 4spot LOVES addai and I wouldn't even mind getting s.alexander @ 5 for the extra value on my even round way-back picks. Probably won't happen though.