Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Kevin Ashcraft]

Listening to Herman Edwards presser......

LJ was forced to start practice with scout team...Herm moved him up later on to the starters/

LJ will not play vs. NO.....may play vs, STL on 8/30.....LJ is fine....does not need many carries to be ready.

LJ will be LJ come Opening Day, expect a full squad.

Priest is still around, no real news

......more coming if he says so...

EDIT: Now they are talking Croyle/Huard...does not apply to this thread, but he said Huard hurting--cannot push off with a calf injury. Brodie may play 3 QTRS vs, NO

Brodie had a presser before Herm, once I get the transcript I will post the news to the blogger.

 

[zoonation]

As an LJ and Omar Gaither owner, today is the happiest day in my life.

I think you may rethink this later when he is taking a pounding all year behind an inferior o-line with a qb that gets no respect from opposing defences. I love LJ, he is warrior. Having said that, his situation will result in him under-achiving relative to his ADP (#3)

Interested in hearing how this year's supporting cast will be worse than last years when he put up monster stats(2100 + yds and 19tds) ?

the O-line took another big hit this offseason.LJ will get his, he is too talented. He just won't produce at #3 IMO. Mortal lock for top 10 numbers.

 

[Da Guru]

At 27 years of age LJ will have two more huge years..then the breakdown wil begin.

When does the breakdown for LT happen since he is older and has about a thousand more carries than LJ.

I have a gut feeling LT is going down this year. SD uses him way too much in garbage situations..but Norv may change that up a bit.

 

[massraider]

At 27 years of age LJ will have two more huge years..then the breakdown wil begin.

When does the breakdown for LT happen since he is older and has about a thousand more carries than LJ.

I have a gut feeling LT is going down this year. SD uses him way too much in garbage situations..but Norv may change that up a bit.

Yeah, I'm sure Norv will show restraint when using his stud back.

 

[bocksheesh]

As an LJ and Omar Gaither owner, today is the happiest day in my life.

I think you may rethink this later when he is taking a pounding all year behind an inferior o-line with a qb that gets no respect from opposing defences. I love LJ, he is warrior. Having said that, his situation will result in him under-achiving relative to his ADP (#3)

Interested in hearing how this year's supporting cast will be worse than last years when he put up monster stats(2100 + yds and 19tds) ?

I agree. LJ may in fact have a worse season than last. But I don't buy the argument that much has changed with the team and his situation. He'll likely get less carries on the con side, but on the pro side, the Chiefs will be in their 2nd season in Coach Edwards system, and the OLine will have a 2nd season of playing with each other.How does KC's schedule against run defenses compare this season versus last? Anyone know?

 

[Lash]

<-----

first year dynasty league

LJ at 1.08

Gaither in rd 36

suhweet!

 

[Da Guru]

At 27 years of age LJ will have two more huge years..then the breakdown wil begin.

When does the breakdown for LT happen since he is older and has about a thousand more carries than LJ.

I have a gut feeling LT is going down this year. SD uses him way too much in garbage situations..but Norv may change that up a bit.

Yeah, I'm sure Norv will show restraint when using his stud back.

I am talking about last year when Marty had LT still running the ball halfway through the fourth quarter up by 17.

 

[dickey moe]

YAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!

 

[CalBear]

I'm merely saying that with Herm "The Undertaker" Edwards calling plays, injury is inevitable.

Is that why the guy who holds the record for most consecutive games started as a RB played for Edwards?Edit to add: Martin also holds the record for best season by a RB over 30.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

As an LJ and Omar Gaither owner, today is the happiest day in my life.

I think you may rethink this later when he is taking a pounding all year behind an inferior o-line with a qb that gets no respect from opposing defences. I love LJ, he is warrior. Having said that, his situation will result in him under-achiving relative to his ADP (#3)

Finally some sense in this thread. And I own LJ in a keeper league.

 

[moleculo]

I'm happy that he signed because it makes trading out of the 3 spot that much easier. I was not a fan of LJ at all this year - call it a gut feeling.

IMO, LJ runs angry. He has to be PO'ed to perform the way he has been - proving himself, either as a starter or playing for a bigger contract. Now, he has everything he needs - no reason to run as angry as he has.

I think this is the year where he has some nagging injury that sidelines him, or he starts taking himself out of the game on occasion, he starts running out of bounds, etc. In fact, he really has to start doing these types of things - otherwise his body won't be able to hold up.

I may be completely wrong, but this is how I'm gonna play it.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm happy that he signed because it makes trading out of the 3 spot that much easier. I was not a fan of LJ at all this year - call it a gut feeling.IMO, LJ runs angry. He has to be PO'ed to perform the way he has been - proving himself, either as a starter or playing for a bigger contract. Now, he has everything he needs - no reason to run as angry as he has.I think this is the year where he has some nagging injury that sidelines him, or he starts taking himself out of the game on occasion, he starts running out of bounds, etc. In fact, he really has to start doing these types of things - otherwise his body won't be able to hold up.I may be completely wrong, but this is how I'm gonna play it.

Great post! I was just about to add this to my post above. LJ is best running angry. He was angry about his draft position, then angry that he wasn't splitting time with Holmes and then angry that he was underpaid. Now he's happy on a team that has lost some good blockers. He will under perform his #3 ADP spot.

 

[joey]

I'm happy that he signed because it makes trading out of the 3 spot that much easier. I was not a fan of LJ at all this year - call it a gut feeling.IMO, LJ runs angry. He has to be PO'ed to perform the way he has been - proving himself, either as a starter or playing for a bigger contract. Now, he has everything he needs - no reason to run as angry as he has.I think this is the year where he has some nagging injury that sidelines him, or he starts taking himself out of the game on occasion, he starts running out of bounds, etc. In fact, he really has to start doing these types of things - otherwise his body won't be able to hold up.I may be completely wrong, but this is how I'm gonna play it.

Great post! I was just about to add this to my post above. LJ is best running angry. He was angry about his draft position, then angry that he wasn't splitting time with Holmes and then angry that he was underpaid. Now he's happy on a team that has lost some good blockers. He will under perform his #3 ADP spot.

Why can't LJ be angry that his o-line isn't blocking as well or his QB isn't respected enough to take 8 out of the box?Aren't those reasons just as good for LJ to say to himself, "eff this! I'm gonna carry this team if no one else is gonna step up!".

 

[Tong Po]

I'm happy that he signed because it makes trading out of the 3 spot that much easier. I was not a fan of LJ at all this year - call it a gut feeling.IMO, LJ runs angry. He has to be PO'ed to perform the way he has been - proving himself, either as a starter or playing for a bigger contract. Now, he has everything he needs - no reason to run as angry as he has.I think this is the year where he has some nagging injury that sidelines him, or he starts taking himself out of the game on occasion, he starts running out of bounds, etc. In fact, he really has to start doing these types of things - otherwise his body won't be able to hold up.I may be completely wrong, but this is how I'm gonna play it.

That is completely absurd. Isn't it possible that LJ will continue to "run angry" to prove to everyone he is worth the money the Chiefs are shelling out for him? LJ never struck me as the type of player who would run out of bounds or shy away from contact. And after watching him get horse-collared last year, on a play where it looked like his spine was snapped, then coming right back and playing the following week.... he doesn't look like a guy who nurses an injury either.

 

[massraider]

I'm happy that he signed because it makes trading out of the 3 spot that much easier. I was not a fan of LJ at all this year - call it a gut feeling.IMO, LJ runs angry. He has to be PO'ed to perform the way he has been - proving himself, either as a starter or playing for a bigger contract. Now, he has everything he needs - no reason to run as angry as he has.I think this is the year where he has some nagging injury that sidelines him, or he starts taking himself out of the game on occasion, he starts running out of bounds, etc. In fact, he really has to start doing these types of things - otherwise his body won't be able to hold up.I may be completely wrong, but this is how I'm gonna play it.

That is completely absurd. Isn't it possible that LJ will continue to "run angry" to prove to everyone he is worth the money the Chiefs are shelling out for him? LJ never struck me as the type of player who would run out of bounds or shy away from contact. And after watching him get horse-collared last year, on a play where it looked like his spine was snapped, then coming right back and playing the following week.... he doesn't look like a guy who nurses an injury either.

While I don't buy moleculo's argument, I don't think it's absurd to worry about a guy getting soft after he gets paid. It's happened before.I am more concerned about the KC line, the QB position, and LJ's workload last year.

 

[gump]

How does KC's schedule against run defenses compare this season versus last? Anyone know?

Not sure how it compares to last year, but Clayton Gray has LJ's schedule among the 3-4 EASIEST in the NFL in weeks 14-16, 15-16, 15-17, and the Last 5 Weeks.

 

[Ozymandias]

ESPN.com's Michael Smith reported that the contract is worth $45 million, with $19 million is guaranteed. Of the guaranteed money, $12 million is the signing bonus and $7 million is guaranteed salary.

A word of advice, Larry.No dogs.

 

[Jackstraw]

I'm happy that he signed because it makes trading out of the 3 spot that much easier. I was not a fan of LJ at all this year - call it a gut feeling.IMO, LJ runs angry. He has to be PO'ed to perform the way he has been - proving himself, either as a starter or playing for a bigger contract. Now, he has everything he needs - no reason to run as angry as he has.I think this is the year where he has some nagging injury that sidelines him, or he starts taking himself out of the game on occasion, he starts running out of bounds, etc. In fact, he really has to start doing these types of things - otherwise his body won't be able to hold up.I may be completely wrong, but this is how I'm gonna play it.

Great post! I was just about to add this to my post above. LJ is best running angry. He was angry about his draft position, then angry that he wasn't splitting time with Holmes and then angry that he was underpaid. Now he's happy on a team that has lost some good blockers. He will under perform his #3 ADP spot.

Pffft. What makes you think LJ will ever be happy? As a running back he's about as nasty on the field as anyone this side of Earl Campbell/Jim Brown. Dude is the real deal.

 

[bjabrad]

I'm happy that he signed because it makes trading out of the 3 spot that much easier. I was not a fan of LJ at all this year - call it a gut feeling.IMO, LJ runs angry. He has to be PO'ed to perform the way he has been - proving himself, either as a starter or playing for a bigger contract. Now, he has everything he needs - no reason to run as angry as he has.I think this is the year where he has some nagging injury that sidelines him, or he starts taking himself out of the game on occasion, he starts running out of bounds, etc. In fact, he really has to start doing these types of things - otherwise his body won't be able to hold up.I may be completely wrong, but this is how I'm gonna play it.

That is completely absurd. Isn't it possible that LJ will continue to "run angry" to prove to everyone he is worth the money the Chiefs are shelling out for him? LJ never struck me as the type of player who would run out of bounds or shy away from contact. And after watching him get horse-collared last year, on a play where it looked like his spine was snapped, then coming right back and playing the following week.... he doesn't look like a guy who nurses an injury either.

While I don't buy moleculo's argument, I don't think it's absurd to worry about a guy getting soft after he gets paid. It's happened before.I am more concerned about the KC line, the QB position, and LJ's workload last year.

You're right that we've all seen players that get paid come back with subpar performances but I don't think you'll see it in this case because it's not like LJ has gained 20 lbs eating twinkies in the off season and has been working out hard at API so that the lack of training camp wouldn't hurt him. I wouldn't be surprised however, if LJ rested himself more after minor injuries but I don't expect that a player with his skills will change his running style. I don't buy the whole "running angry" angle anymore than I buy the heavy workload leads to an injury the following year (since the sample size is too small). You guys are all too eager to buy the first load of crap that somebody offers. Injuries are going to happen with or without what somebody considers a heavy work load and guys don't change their running styles overnight just because they got paid.

 

[SSOG]

I said *WHEN* he tears every ligament in his body because I believe it is inevitable, given the workload which he has been forced to endure.

It's inevitable that LJ is gonna tear every ligament in his body?I saw the Torture Exhibit at Tropicana in Atlantic City... and I don't even think the Middle Ages had a machine that could do that.

Hyperbole down? Did you think I was serious about LJ breaking 500 carries this season, too?Let's put this simply. LJ is going to get a ton of carries over the next two years. LJ is either going to suffer a traumatic injury or see an Earl Campbell-like decline as a result of that workload, since the human body is not built to handle that kind of punishment. I'm not HOPING for LJ to get injured, but I am strongly convinced that unless something dramatic happens, he will, and as a result I'm glad that at least he hit his big payday first.

I'm merely saying that with Herm "The Undertaker" Edwards calling plays, injury is inevitable.

Is that why the guy who holds the record for most consecutive games started as a RB played for Edwards?Edit to add: Martin also holds the record for best season by a RB over 30.

C-Mart's career under Herm Edwards2001: 349 carries

2002: 292 carries

2003: 323 carries

2004: 408 carries

2005: streak over.

...

2006: 429 carries for LJ

I admit that you're right, based on his entire body of work, I'm probably being too harsh on Edwards... but he's been showing some real RB-killing tendencies recently, and I haven't heard anything that indicates he's about to let up any time soon.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm happy that he signed because it makes trading out of the 3 spot that much easier. I was not a fan of LJ at all this year - call it a gut feeling.IMO, LJ runs angry. He has to be PO'ed to perform the way he has been - proving himself, either as a starter or playing for a bigger contract. Now, he has everything he needs - no reason to run as angry as he has.I think this is the year where he has some nagging injury that sidelines him, or he starts taking himself out of the game on occasion, he starts running out of bounds, etc. In fact, he really has to start doing these types of things - otherwise his body won't be able to hold up.I may be completely wrong, but this is how I'm gonna play it.

Great post! I was just about to add this to my post above. LJ is best running angry. He was angry about his draft position, then angry that he wasn't splitting time with Holmes and then angry that he was underpaid. Now he's happy on a team that has lost some good blockers. He will under perform his #3 ADP spot.

Why can't LJ be angry that his o-line isn't blocking as well or his QB isn't respected enough to take 8 out of the box?Aren't those reasons just as good for LJ to say to himself, "eff this! I'm gonna carry this team if no one else is gonna step up!".

I just don't see him having as good a year as you seem to project. There are multiple reasons detailed here: Less angry, a ton of touches last season, worse OLine, worse QB. You disagree. We'll just have to see.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Even if his numbers are 80% of last years, he will still be a top 5 stud.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

MAY I HAVE YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE:

Regarding LJ's contract situation.......THE SKY IS NO LONGER FALLING !!!!!!!

 

[KC_Guy1966]

Things are falling into place one by one.

LJ's signing solves the RB situation - and sorry, I don't see any room for PH any more.

Now get the starting tackles (McIntosh & Terry) out on the field and see what the OL can do in that setup. We haven't seen the starting formation yet in preseason! Think it will look different then!

Put Brodie under center and see what he can do. He's the only option if you look down the road. May be we see Casey playing some in decided games just to develop him a bit -- but that's about it. Looking at the long term Damon is an option only if Brodie proves to be a bust.

Start talking to Jarred Allen about an extension now and nail down this DL for the next couple of years. They will wear down more than one OL this year. Excellent depth, flexibility, aggressiveness and a nice mix of youngsters and seasoned players - just great.

Develop the young guys on the receiver and DB-corps as well. Take some chances. This is the year to set the team up for the future.

Prepare an kicker option if Justin doesn't make it. There should be a guy named Nick Setta out there. Great kicker in Europe in 2006.

After all that - beef up the OL next year. They have 10 picks right now - and I guess they'll get another one or two until the next draft.

And then fill the remaining holes - and get the SB! ;-)

 

[KC_Guy1966]

Nice wording by CP:

“It doesn’t affect Priest at all. I sometimes don’t understand why the media doesn’t listen to what we’re saying. First of all, Priest Holmes deserves the right to try to make a comeback after being gone for 22 months. After what he’s contributed to the Kansas City Chiefs and National Football League I want to afford him that opportunity."

“But he knew from the onset and I’d like to express it one more time: if Priest is with us it will not be in the same capacity as it was before. I think, and Herm thinks, he can be a marvelous situational running back – that’s short yardage, goal line, screens and draws. He’s not going to carry it or touch it as much as he did when he was with us before."

“Priest has to make this football team on his merits. But they are all the merits that he has accumulated over all the years. That will be something Herm and I discuss. We’ve got a cut to 75 [players] this week and he will be in that 75 without any question. We’ll see where he is next week and we do have some other options that we discussed.”

What do we make of this?? Waiting for the Herm interview!

 

[moleculo]

Nice wording by CP: “It doesn’t affect Priest at all. I sometimes don’t understand why the media doesn’t listen to what we’re saying. First of all, Priest Holmes deserves the right to try to make a comeback after being gone for 22 months. After what he’s contributed to the Kansas City Chiefs and National Football League I want to afford him that opportunity."“But he knew from the onset and I’d like to express it one more time: if Priest is with us it will not be in the same capacity as it was before. I think, and Herm thinks, he can be a marvelous situational running back – that’s short yardage, goal line, screens and draws. He’s not going to carry it or touch it as much as he did when he was with us before."“Priest has to make this football team on his merits. But they are all the merits that he has accumulated over all the years. That will be something Herm and I discuss. We’ve got a cut to 75 [players] this week and he will be in that 75 without any question. We’ll see where he is next week and we do have some other options that we discussed.”What do we make of this?? Waiting for the Herm interview!

Well, if Priest can get some of the touches that would otherwise go to LJ, one would have to assume that LJ is less likely to get injured. Of course, less touches = less FF points. Priest could be a goal line/3rd down vulture this year. Maybe Priest's mere presence is enough to anger LJ?

 

[Ned]

I said *WHEN* he tears every ligament in his body because I believe it is inevitable, given the workload which he has been forced to endure.

It's inevitable that LJ is gonna tear every ligament in his body?I saw the Torture Exhibit at Tropicana in Atlantic City... and I don't even think the Middle Ages had a machine that could do that.

Hyperbole down? Did you think I was serious about LJ breaking 500 carries this season, too?Let's put this simply. LJ is going to get a ton of carries over the next two years. LJ is either going to suffer a traumatic injury or see an Earl Campbell-like decline as a result of that workload, since the human body is not built to handle that kind of punishment. I'm not HOPING for LJ to get injured, but I am strongly convinced that unless something dramatic happens, he will, and as a result I'm glad that at least he hit his big payday first.

I'm merely saying that with Herm "The Undertaker" Edwards calling plays, injury is inevitable.

Is that why the guy who holds the record for most consecutive games started as a RB played for Edwards?Edit to add: Martin also holds the record for best season by a RB over 30.

C-Mart's career under Herm Edwards2001: 349 carries

2002: 292 carries

2003: 323 carries

2004: 408 carries

2005: streak over.

...

2006: 429 carries for LJ

I admit that you're right, based on his entire body of work, I'm probably being too harsh on Edwards... but he's been showing some real RB-killing tendencies recently, and I haven't heard anything that indicates he's about to let up any time soon.

it still ceases to amaze me that lj gets this kind of analysis but lt doesn't.

 

[CalBear]

I said *WHEN* he tears every ligament in his body because I believe it is inevitable, given the workload which he has been forced to endure.

It's inevitable that LJ is gonna tear every ligament in his body?I saw the Torture Exhibit at Tropicana in Atlantic City... and I don't even think the Middle Ages had a machine that could do that.

Hyperbole down? Did you think I was serious about LJ breaking 500 carries this season, too?Let's put this simply. LJ is going to get a ton of carries over the next two years. LJ is either going to suffer a traumatic injury or see an Earl Campbell-like decline as a result of that workload, since the human body is not built to handle that kind of punishment. I'm not HOPING for LJ to get injured, but I am strongly convinced that unless something dramatic happens, he will, and as a result I'm glad that at least he hit his big payday first.

I'm merely saying that with Herm "The Undertaker" Edwards calling plays, injury is inevitable.

Is that why the guy who holds the record for most consecutive games started as a RB played for Edwards?Edit to add: Martin also holds the record for best season by a RB over 30.

C-Mart's career under Herm Edwards2001: 349 carries

2002: 292 carries

2003: 323 carries

2004: 408 carries

2005: streak over.

...

2006: 429 carries for LJ

I admit that you're right, based on his entire body of work, I'm probably being too harsh on Edwards... but he's been showing some real RB-killing tendencies recently, and I haven't heard anything that indicates he's about to let up any time soon.

Martin also averaged almost 50 receptions during that time frame. Yet he played 76 straight games for Edwards, finally having his streak broken at age 32, an age when most RBs are already out of the league. You can't blame Edwards for that.LJ played 16 games (17 including the playoff game) last season with no injuries.

Playing football injures people. Warrick Dunn only had 286 carries last year, and he's injured. Clinton Portis only had 127 carries, and he's injured. It just happens. It's certainly not inevitable that Johnson will get injured if he gets 400 carries this year or next year. If he remains a starting RB for the next 5 years, he is almost guaranteed to get injured, whether he gets 250 or 400 carries a year.

 

[Keith Lewis]

Major injuries last year?

Alexander - probaly had high carries the year before

Kevin Jones- probaly not high carries

Lamont Jordan - probaly good amount of carries

Chris Brown - probaly a light load

Clinton Portis - probaly a good amount of carries

Dunn - low amount of carries

I think that a back like Addai/Maroney/McGahee/Rudi/Caddy would have a relative to carry chance of getting hurt as LT/LJ/S. Jax(workhorses).

I don't think that LJ/LT/S. Jax really have that much more of an injury risk than anyone else.

When speaking of injuries and predicting them shouldn't we be looking at running backs with histories of injuries? Not to call anyone out but someone like Foster/Ahman Green or Fred Taylor? I don't get all this predicting injury for someone who has never been hurt before, it's pretty silly when you think about it.

 

[Keith Lewis]

Since LJ has signed today, I spent some time digesting all of the pundits (and some on this board) that Larry's 416 carry '06 season is a predictor of his downfall. On the surface, it sounded scary. That is, until I looked a bit deeper.

Below are some backs throughout history and some statistics about their workload and subsequent productivity. Granted, there have been several backs to go over 400 carries in a season and fail to ever regain their form. Having said that, as the statistics show, there are an impressive amount of backs that go over 400 touches many times and are still very productive.

*Carries/touches include post-season*

Shaun Alexander - 430 carries in '05. I don't hear nearly as many people predicting his demise as LJ

Marcus Allen - 402 touches in '85. Played another 12 years and accumulated 7,600 more rushing yards.

Jim Brown - 351 touches in 14 games in '61. His first year in the league. Over a 16-game schedule, this would be over 400 carries.

Roger Craig - 455 touches (rush's and receptions) in '88

Terrell Davis - 481 carries in '97. Went over 2000k in '98.

Eric Dickerson - 413 carries in '83 (first year in league). 430 carries in '86, and played 7 more productive years.

Tony Dorsett - 416 touches (carries and receptions) in '81 - played 7 more productive years.

Edge James - 452 carries in first year in the league. 474 carries in second year in the league. 431 touches in '03.

Walter Payton - Went over 400 touches 4 times before the '85 season. Played many more productive seasons.

Clinton Portis - 402 Carries in '05

Barry Sanders - 405 carries in '91. Played 8 more productive years.

Emmitt Smith - 406 carries in '91. 444 carries in '92. 350 carries in '93. 395 carries in '94. 451 carries in '95. Played another 9-years after '95.

Thurman Thomas - 418 carries in '93. Played 7 more productive years.

And finally, the FBG golden boy

Ladanian Tomlinson - HAS AVERAGED 418 TOUCHES PER YEAR OVER FIRST SIX SEASONS IN THE NFL.

COMPARED TO...

Larry Johnson - AVERAGE 252 CARRIES OVER 4 YEARS.

This is not to say LJ won't break down. It is entirely possible. It is also entirely possible, as the above stat's illustrate, the LJ can continue to be very productive for a number of years. At the very least, the statistics illustrate the FBG bias toward LJ.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The forgotten thing is the carries of players who play multiple playoff games.

 

[lebowski]

Martin also averaged almost 50 receptions during that time frame. Yet he played 76 straight games for Edwards, finally having his streak broken at age 32, an age when most RBs are already out of the league. You can't blame Edwards for that.LJ played 16 games (17 including the playoff game) last season with no injuries.Playing football injures people. Warrick Dunn only had 286 carries last year, and he's injured. Clinton Portis only had 127 carries, and he's injured. It just happens. It's certainly not inevitable that Johnson will get injured if he gets 400 carries this year or next year. If he remains a starting RB for the next 5 years, he is almost guaranteed to get injured, whether he gets 250 or 400 carries a year.

MAN I hope I get the #3 pick this year and get LJ!

 

[lebowski]

Since LJ has signed today, I spent some time digesting all of the pundits (and some on this board) that Larry's 416 carry '06 season is a predictor of his downfall. On the surface, it sounded scary. That is, until I looked a bit deeper.

Below are some backs throughout history and some statistics about their workload and subsequent productivity. Granted, there have been several backs to go over 400 carries in a season and fail to ever regain their form. Having said that, as the statistics show, there are an impressive amount of backs that go over 400 touches many times and are still very productive.

*Carries/touches include post-season*

Shaun Alexander - 430 carries in '05. I don't hear nearly as many people predicting his demise as LJ

Marcus Allen - 402 touches in '85. Played another 12 years and accumulated 7,600 more rushing yards.

Jim Brown - 351 touches in 14 games in '61. His first year in the league. Over a 16-game schedule, this would be over 400 carries.

Roger Craig - 455 touches (rush's and receptions) in '88

Terrell Davis - 481 carries in '97. Went over 2000k in '98.

Eric Dickerson - 413 carries in '83 (first year in league). 430 carries in '86, and played 7 more productive years.

Tony Dorsett - 416 touches (carries and receptions) in '81 - played 7 more productive years.

Edge James - 452 carries in first year in the league. 474 carries in second year in the league. 431 touches in '03.

Walter Payton - Went over 400 touches 4 times before the '85 season. Played many more productive seasons.

Clinton Portis - 402 Carries in '05

Barry Sanders - 405 carries in '91. Played 8 more productive years.

Emmitt Smith - 406 carries in '91. 444 carries in '92. 350 carries in '93. 395 carries in '94. 451 carries in '95. Played another 9-years after '95.

Thurman Thomas - 418 carries in '93. Played 7 more productive years.

And finally, the FBG golden boy

Ladanian Tomlinson - HAS AVERAGED 418 TOUCHES PER YEAR OVER FIRST SIX SEASONS IN THE NFL.

COMPARED TO...

Larry Johnson - AVERAGE 252 CARRIES OVER 4 YEARS.

This is not to say LJ won't break down. It is entirely possible. It is also entirely possible, as the above stat's illustrate, the LJ can continue to be very productive for a number of years. At the very least, the statistics illustrate the FBG bias toward LJ.

Thank you Keith!

 

[SSOG]

I said *WHEN* he tears every ligament in his body because I believe it is inevitable, given the workload which he has been forced to endure.

It's inevitable that LJ is gonna tear every ligament in his body?I saw the Torture Exhibit at Tropicana in Atlantic City... and I don't even think the Middle Ages had a machine that could do that.

Hyperbole down? Did you think I was serious about LJ breaking 500 carries this season, too?Let's put this simply. LJ is going to get a ton of carries over the next two years. LJ is either going to suffer a traumatic injury or see an Earl Campbell-like decline as a result of that workload, since the human body is not built to handle that kind of punishment. I'm not HOPING for LJ to get injured, but I am strongly convinced that unless something dramatic happens, he will, and as a result I'm glad that at least he hit his big payday first.

I'm merely saying that with Herm "The Undertaker" Edwards calling plays, injury is inevitable.

Is that why the guy who holds the record for most consecutive games started as a RB played for Edwards?Edit to add: Martin also holds the record for best season by a RB over 30.

C-Mart's career under Herm Edwards2001: 349 carries

2002: 292 carries

2003: 323 carries

2004: 408 carries

2005: streak over.

...

2006: 429 carries for LJ

I admit that you're right, based on his entire body of work, I'm probably being too harsh on Edwards... but he's been showing some real RB-killing tendencies recently, and I haven't heard anything that indicates he's about to let up any time soon.

it still ceases to amaze me that lj gets this kind of analysis but lt doesn't.

Tomlinson has only once topped 350 carries in his entire career.

Martin also averaged almost 50 receptions during that time frame. Yet he played 76 straight games for Edwards, finally having his streak broken at age 32, an age when most RBs are already out of the league. You can't blame Edwards for that.

LJ played 16 games (17 including the playoff game) last season with no injuries.

Playing football injures people. Warrick Dunn only had 286 carries last year, and he's injured. Clinton Portis only had 127 carries, and he's injured. It just happens. It's certainly not inevitable that Johnson will get injured if he gets 400 carries this year or next year. If he remains a starting RB for the next 5 years, he is almost guaranteed to get injured, whether he gets 250 or 400 carries a year.

Statistically speaking, there's no correlation between receptions and health the next season (actually, there's a very, very, very, very, very weak correlation, but it's positive, so RBs who catch a lot of balls are marginally LESS likely to get injured).I understand that RBs are likely to be injured, but it's easy to demonstrate a statistical correlation between number of carries in Year N and a greater-than-expected regression to the mean in Year N+1 (whether due to injury or just massively declined production).

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm confused by the emphasis on the number of carries issue with LJ. Is that just because everyone visits FO now? That is just one of four issues with LJ this year:

1) High workload last year

2) Just got paid/less angry

3) Worse Offensive Line - likely

4) Worse QB - likely

Add those up and I think there is a good reason to expect him to under perform his numbers from last season and end up closer to the bottom of the Top 10.

Does anyone agree with me?

 

[CalBear]

I understand that RBs are likely to be injured, but it's easy to demonstrate a statistical correlation between number of carries in Year N and a greater-than-expected regression to the mean in Year N+1 (whether due to injury or just massively declined production).

Actually, it's not easy to demonstrate that at all. It's easy to cherry-pick the extremely small data pool to make it look like that if you want to. (For example, ignoring playoff carries).

 

[Da Guru]

The reason I don`t agree is that LJ did not play much his first two seasons..LJ had not been touched in 8 months..LJ is only 27. This talk is very premature. In two years when LJ is 29 and 800 more carries under his belt I would ten to agree..but not now.

 

[Routilla]

Glad to see LJ signed. Now we can get the naysayers posting doom and gloom again. Let's see if I have this right;

Poor OL, poor QB, 9 in the box, Herm........etc.

I still have LJ down for 1600 and 16 TDs rushing plus any receiving yds/TDs. It's not like the other teams in the NFL are all great and KC is not competitive. Don't out think the man's ability, he is a stud RB. Go LJ!!

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Glad to see LJ signed. Now we can get the naysayers posting doom and gloom again. Let's see if I have this right;

Poor OL, poor QB, 9 in the box, Herm........etc.

I still have LJ down for 1600 and 16 TDs rushing plus any receiving yds/TDs. It's not like the other teams in the NFL are all great and KC is not competitive. Don't out think the man's ability, he is a stud RB. Go LJ!!

Those numbers that you predict for LJ are about 80% less than his average numbers over the last 2 years...and STILL would make him a top 5 stud.

 

[Family Matters]

Glad to see LJ signed. Now we can get the naysayers posting doom and gloom again. Let's see if I have this right;

Poor OL, poor QB, 9 in the box, Herm........etc.

I still have LJ down for 1600 and 16 TDs rushing plus any receiving yds/TDs. It's not like the other teams in the NFL are all great and KC is not competitive. Don't out think the man's ability, he is a stud RB. Go LJ!!

It seems some folks are in fact out thinking themselves on LJ. Some people are looking for a reason not to like him as a fantasy RB. It makes no sesnse to me.

 

[SSOG]

I understand that RBs are likely to be injured, but it's easy to demonstrate a statistical correlation between number of carries in Year N and a greater-than-expected regression to the mean in Year N+1 (whether due to injury or just massively declined production).

Actually, it's not easy to demonstrate that at all. It's easy to cherry-pick the extremely small data pool to make it look like that if you want to. (For example, ignoring playoff carries).

Who ignores playoff carries? The same analysis has been done including receptions (conclusion: no increased chance of breakdown) and playoff carries (conclusion: increased chance of breakdown). Anytime a player's regular season carries are above 370, or their total carries are above 390, that player is an increased risk in year N+1.

 

[SteelerMurf]

Glad to see LJ signed. Now we can get the naysayers posting doom and gloom again. Let's see if I have this right;

Poor OL, poor QB, 9 in the box, Herm........etc.

I still have LJ down for 1600 and 16 TDs rushing plus any receiving yds/TDs. It's not like the other teams in the NFL are all great and KC is not competitive. Don't out think the man's ability, he is a stud RB. Go LJ!!

It seems some folks are in fact out thinking themselves on LJ. Some people are looking for a reason not to like him as a fantasy RB. It makes no sesnse to me.

exactly...now a reason not to draft him is he won't be "angry" this year. If you don't like LJ cause he beat you too many times in FFball get over it and draft one of the best pure RBs in the NFL.Don't overthink this one, which is what all the haters are doing. Go draft your TRUE injury risk (Gore) or unproven 2nd year guy never to carry a load (Addai). You guys are drafting a guy with 8 TDs in 2006 before a guy that pushes 20 TDs every year? That is laughable.

 

[SteelerMurf]

Glad to see LJ signed. Now we can get the naysayers posting doom and gloom again. Let's see if I have this right;Poor OL, poor QB, 9 in the box, Herm........etc.I still have LJ down for 1600 and 16 TDs rushing plus any receiving yds/TDs. It's not like the other teams in the NFL are all great and KC is not competitive. Don't out think the man's ability, he is a stud RB. Go LJ!!

you missed a new one....LJ won't run "angry" anymore

 

[twitch]

People speculating on an LJ injury this year as a result of his workload last year really need to consider his workload over the last several years....its minimal when compared to other stud backs. The man rarely played in college until his senior season when he started and emerged as a stud. So basically ONE season of action (or participation) at Penn State. Most stud NFL RBs enter the league with much more wear on the tires than LJ. Then, he basically gets an entire season and a half off before starting 3 or 4 games down the stretch of his 2nd year with KC. His 3rd year, he's the 2nd guy in a committee, and then finally in his 4th NFL season he becomes the starter. I realize this is NOT a newsflash, but it seems to get lost far too often in the 400plus carry discussion. LJ is 28, but imo, dating back to his college career, he's probably put in about as much work as most 23 year olds. Dont sweat the work...LJ's body is young, strong, and built to last.

As for his team's chances of success, its a concern, but not enough for me to consider for even a second taking LJ anywhere beyond 3rd overall. Guys who are good for 20TDs, with zero history of injury, with basically TWO seasons of NFL action under their belt just dont grow on trees.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

OK, how about a Sig bet?

I'm betting that he finishes 8th or worse among RBs in a standard PPR league (1 pt per 10 yards, 1 pt per reception, 6 points for a TD). You are betting that he finishes 3rd or better.

So if he's ranked 1-3 at year's end (17 weeks/16 games), you win.

If he's ranked 4-7, we push.

If he's ranked 8 or lower, I win.

I'll take 3 bets. Who's in?

 

[twitch]

how are you coming up with 8th? just curious. I have no interest in a sig bet, but I am curious how the 8 slot is the over/under.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

how are you coming up with 8th? just curious. I have no interest in a sig bet, but I am curious how the 8 slot is the over/under.

I expect him to finish 8th this year.

 

[twitch]

how are you coming up with 8th? just curious. I have no interest in a sig bet, but I am curious how the 8 slot is the over/under.

I expect him to finish 8th this year.

oh, OK. I can appreciate the simplicity there.

 

[Routilla]

Glad to see LJ signed. Now we can get the naysayers posting doom and gloom again. Let's see if I have this right;Poor OL, poor QB, 9 in the box, Herm........etc.I still have LJ down for 1600 and 16 TDs rushing plus any receiving yds/TDs. It's not like the other teams in the NFL are all great and KC is not competitive. Don't out think the man's ability, he is a stud RB. Go LJ!!

you missed a new one....LJ won't run "angry" anymore

oops, my bad.

 

[Tong Po]

I'm confused by the emphasis on the number of carries issue with LJ. Is that just because everyone visits FO now? That is just one of four issues with LJ this year:1) High workload last year2) Just got paid/less angry3) Worse Offensive Line - likely4) Worse QB - likelyAdd those up and I think there is a good reason to expect him to under perform his numbers from last season and end up closer to the bottom of the Top 10. Does anyone agree with me?

I certainly don't agree with you.... now he's gonna finish near 10 ???1) A lot of RBs had a high workload last year2) The "less angry" arguement really needs to stop3) He had a bad O-line last year too... and still couldnt be stopped4) Why is Kansas City likely to have the worse QB? Have you seen what some teams are rolling out in Week One?I'm having flashbacks of last season. There was a thread that went on for about the first 6 weeks of the season bashing LJ because he wasn't racking up numbers early. Even though he was consistantly getting 50 and 50 or scoring a TD. I kep reading the same garbage about how LJ was a fluke and not a "great runningback". How everyone who drafted him early made a mistake. By about Week 7 the most vocal participants in that thread turned tail and ran.... never to heard from again.Haters will be haters.