Last Minute Dynasty Targets (1 Viewer)

[Adam Harstad]

I unequivocally agree with your final statement. I would also submit that I think Russell Wilson is more capable of throwing for 4,000 yards in a season and rushing for an additional 500 yards. Which results in an equal or greater number of fantasy points.

In 2012, Matt Stafford threw an NFL-record 727 passes for a Maddenesque 4967 yards. He even chipped in a career-best 126 rushing yards and an impressive 4 touchdowns on the ground. And he was still outscored by a rookie 3rd-round quarterback with no receivers of note playing in a run-first offense.

Stafford has never been outscored by Wilson in my leagues (checked 3). And 2012 was an outlier for Stafford--Calvin could tear his ACL tomorrow and we'd all project more than 20 TDs.

I was going off of PFR, though I see FBGs has Stafford 9th and Wilson 11th that year.

2012 was an outlier for Wilson too, though. For how many players has their rookie year been indicative of their true level of production? Again, he's been a fixture in the top-10 with barely 400 pass attempts and no receivers of note.

That's just it. According to the HDD, the difference between Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson over the last two years was just 1.6 points per game. Which way do you believe the winds of regression are blowing with Matt Stafford? Which way are they blowing with Russell Wilson? How big do you expect that gap to remain going forward? According to DLF's ADP data, Stafford is going with the 48th pick and Wilson is going with the 103rd pick in startups- a late 4th rounder vs. a late 9th rounder. Do you think the production gap is commensurate with that huge gaping divide in cost of acquisition? Russell Wilson's ADP is about as close to Andy Dalton's (56 spot gap) as it is to Matt Stafford's (54 spot gap). And that's ignoring the exponential decline in pick value (meaning in practical terms, the market currently says Wilson is substantially closer in value to Andy Dalton than he is to Matt Stafford). How can anyone see that and not immediately think that either Wilson is incredibly underpriced, Stafford is incredibly overpriced, or both?

There is a reason you're using the last two years, however: to omit Stafford's best season and include the outlier. Change that to 3 and it's not close. He has better tools now than he's ever had as well.

Using DLF's ADP--I do agree that Stafford is overpriced and Wilson is under priced. I just don't see those results in the actual leagues I play in, or see it represented in the trades I see.

I respect your call and having to defend my stance has made me think--I appreciate that and acknowledge some very strong points. But it really does come down to this: I think Stafford is going to prove more valuable to my fantasy team over a reasonable window (3+ exit value?). I see a solid gap this year--at least on par with last season's--and I am not bullish enough on Wilson ever being a top 5 guy soon enough or often enough to bridge that gap. Give me the few point PPG advantage over the next two seasons, which I am comfortable projecting, and live with those results.

Fantasy points per game: 21.8, 21.8, 25.5, 19.0, 16.8. We agree that one of Stafford's seasons was an outlier and should be excluded, we just happen to disagree on which one.

 

[Concept Coop]

There is a reason you're using the last two years, however: to omit Stafford's best season and include the outlier. Change that to 3 and it's not close. He has better tools now than he's ever had as well.

Using DLF's ADP--I do agree that Stafford is overpriced and Wilson is under priced. I just don't see those results in the actual leagues I play in, or see it represented in the trades I see.

I respect your call and having to defend my stance has made me think--I appreciate that and acknowledge some very strong points. But it really does come down to this: I think Stafford is going to prove more valuable to my fantasy team over a reasonable window (3+ exit value?). I see a solid gap this year--at least on par with last season's--and I am not bullish enough on Wilson ever being a top 5 guy soon enough or often enough to bridge that gap. Give me the few point PPG advantage over the next two seasons, which I am comfortable projecting, and live with those results.

Fantasy points per game: 21.8, 21.8, 25.5, 19.0, 16.8. We agree that one of Stafford's seasons was an outlier and should be excluded, we just happen to disagree on which one.

The injury plagued and shortened 3 game sample size? The injury plagued and shortened 10 game season?

 

[r0llin_game]

I only saw him mentioned once in here, but I think DeAndre Hopkins could make that leap. He put up solid numbers 52/802/2. Yes the TD's were down, but that was mostly the result of the terrible QB play. Those receptions/yards were good enough for 2nd amongst rookie WR's I believe, only behind Keenan Allen, yet, it seems like he hasn't been really talked about much this offseason. I definitely think he could have that Alshon-like break out.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Mine include:

Wheaton, T. Williams: Sophomore WRs in plus situations whose likely production will quickly boost their stock, when coupled with their age.

RG3: Buy on bad news. He's already put together a solid stretch as the #1 fantasy QB in football, so the upside is clearly there. Given the depth at the position, a swing and miss shouldn't be too damning, compared to equally risky targets at other positions.

Jeremy Hill: I think he's the best back in his class--one of the youngest and freshest too. Gio is a major roadblock, but not worthy of the major ADP gap between Hill and Sankey and, to a lesser extent, Hyde. He has a shot to push Gio into a Vereen role; as an organization--I'd image that would be quite appealing: Hill doing the dirty work and keeping the home run hitter fresh to hit home runs. They'll be running the ball a lot either way.

Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams (Combo if possible): A nice mix of immediate production and long-term potential if Williams proves to be the next starter. AW seems like a Coughlin guy, assuming Ole' Tom can keep his job for a couple more years. Steal at current ADP(s), but it could take some work to lock them both up. If you don't need RB2/flex production, I still think AW is a solid target.

Alshon Jeffrey: Last chance to get this Tier 1 player at Tier 1B prices. I'd be looking to "downgrade" from Julio, DT, Dez, and Green, if I can pick up a solid piece for doing so.

Austin Stud-Jenkins: The Alshon Jeffrey of his position--Fresh/Soph stud with Junior year weight/Offense(QB) problems, newly slimmed down. Day 1 mismatch and elite red zone target.

Charles Sims: Buy on bad news. The staff loves him. Win/Win: If Martin rebounds, Sims is one of the bigger cuffs in the league--at least worthy of his current ADP. If Martin struggles at all, as he did last season, Sims' ADP is going to skyrocket, just based on speculation.

Yours?

I really like your list. I find it interesting and well thought out. I had a question on RG3--in regards to him being a potential "dynasty target". While I agree that he has major upside--wouldn't the style of his play lessen his value to a potential owner? For example--I'm not a current RG3 owner---and I'd have a hard time wanting to be one unless I had a solid back up qb behind him--knowing that the likelihood of him getting hurt are high. Basically speaking--if somebody targets Rg3--it seems as though there would almost have to be the requirement of having the value of a solid backup qb on your bench.. If you add in that "required" back up value--seems to me that he might not be the "bargain" that he appears to be---but am I overthinking this?