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Mack seems like a guy whose ADP will be higher than his ranking. A few rankings I've seen have him closer to the 3.01 range, but I too fully expect his ADP to be mid 2nd.
http://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2017/options?L=33614&O=17 at 3.02 in a 14 teamer Super4flex full IDP
Got it. Talent means nothing in the NFL. Good call. I know that's not what you mean, but people pay too much attention to landing spot and don't gauge the value of the actual player far far far too often. I'm completely on board with you that Indy is a fantastic landing spot but you have to evaluate the talent. I had him at #35 pre-NFL Draft, and recently moved him up to #29 (which could easily change), so depending on the size of league and how much of a fan of you were before the draft, he's a late 2nd early 3rd. You're being almost hyper critical of me saying "early 3rd". There's obviously room to work with as a late 2nd or early 3rd there and we're relatively close on his projection in rookie drafts I think.
I didn't advocate picking Mack or Perine over more talented backs but once you get past the top 4-5 RBs there are judgement calls to make. One thing that can be looked at when making a decision is path to relevance. I might like Brian Hill better than Mack pre-draft but he's blocked in Atlanta by Freeman and Coleman....like I said, Mack only has a geriatric Gore ahead of him so I would have to move him up. Mack should go from mid-2nd to mid-3rd depending on format.
That's one of the rare good ones coming from drafting before the NFL draft. But boy is it a beaut.Yeah seriously, and McCaffrey just before him, Njoku at 2.06 and even a guy like Peppers in the 5th were steals.Corey Davis at 1.06
Mob Squad hit that out of the park
By the 2nd round the talent level is pretty well blurred, and situation becomes far more important at this point of the draft. There isn't going to be a Dalvin Cook at 2.02, so why not take the guy that's only got Gore in his way of 250+ carries and still has enough holes in the roster that RB may not be a big priority to upgrade, in particular if he plays "pretty well". He's in play as early as 13 for me depending on the league. He's not going to get to the 3rd in very many drafts.
That's fair, and I agree to an extent that by the 2nd rolls around it becomes "take a chance on a guy" time. I think I'm just trying not to buy into the "situation" argument by too much. There were lots of guys I liked before that situation became a thing, especially some WR's that I would rather take since their careers are generally longer than RB's. Kupp, Zones, JuJu, Henderson to name a few. It's not that I have Mack ranked at #50 or something, he's actually #24 on my board right now, but hearing he's in consideration at #13 is too rich for me to take a guy that is situation dependent instead of talented according to my views on him.
A players situation is very important. You should not ignore it.
Now these are rankings for the NFL not fantasy. These things are not always the same. So you have to intrepret what the NFL teams will do, and what that means for fantasy, and that requires that you consider the players situation, how much the player can score in fantasy based on that situation, and where those numbers stack up against all of the other players in the NFL.
This is where we disagree basically. And I didn't want to quote your whole reply. It should be relatively independent of each other because of future competition. A lower drafted guy is more likely to have more competition in future years, unless they took their shots the years before. I think the Bears is the perfect example of that. They took shots on Langford and Carey and people hyped them up as filling a full RB role but then they found Howard and hit on one of those later round picks. Now I think that situation is relatively stable where Landford and Carey are the competition, but I think it happens this way more often than the other way, where they find their starter first and then add more depth. It usually takes 2 or 3 tries for you to find a role player let alone a workhorse. That's something I'd be very curious to look into some more actually.
The thing is we don't really know how talented any of these guys really are. Or really are going to be, because they all grow and improve differently. That's not about you, or Kiper, or John Lynch. It's how it is (or how it frequently turns out). At this level they are all the best in the world when they come out of college but it's a crapshoot as to how good they will be in 4 years. How often does a guy bust, or we see a late rounder light it up and wonder how we missed that or even more often how that guy pulled that off? Just look at the top of the 2017 startup RB rankings. Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, Jordan Howard, Devonte Freeman, none were guys that blew us away pre-draft. The thing all of those guys have in common is they got a ton of work due to competition level. Where are Gurley's 1500 yard seasons? How many Pro Bowls has Trent Richardson been in after being drafted 5 years ago (wow)? We were all shocked how far Ingram fell in his rookie draft, then he went to NOS where we thought he'd be stacking 2000 total yard seasons up, yet here we are.
I don't take it personally at all, but the best indication of that talent is the NFL draft, I think we all agree on that right? And I hate using Mack as a consistent example because I don't want people to take it the wrong way but he's the one that landed in the best spot for any RB arguably. There were 14 RB's taken ahead of Mack in the NFL draft, that doesn't say super talented to me. If he blew up the combine or his pro day as a non 1st or 2nd round pick, then I'd be thinking otherwise (David Johnson) but he didn't.
That's also something worth considering, but the answer is an overwhelming "yes" when they do. I traded Karlos Williams for a 2016 1st and 3rd (ended up 1.08/2.08, which I combined to 1.06). David Johnson, enough said. Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi are in the discussion for top 5 dynasty RB and firmly in the top 10 (today). Jeremy Hill had the same value 13 months ago and won a lot of people their leagues and/or got a huge return in trade. These are just off the top of my head examples I personally have hit on recently, it's far from a comprehensive list, and of course there are plenty I missed on (so far) too. It's probably worth nothing that these are all RB's, a position notorious for being capable of having early success. It's a very specific, intentional strategy.
Yes there are two different ideas here that do not really line up with each other. I recognize that and tried to illustrate this with the example of Dalvin Cook and the pre NFL draft (talent based) ranking of him and post NFL draft ranking of him (drafted in the 2nd round).
In regards to Mack I think there is a lot to like about him. I had him ranked 22 pre NFL draft. I consider him close to Kareem Hunt I just like Hunt slightly more. The post NFL draft ranking I have Mack ranked 20 (not counting the 4 QB I might take over him). So he moved up a couple spots for me based on situation, but not really that different. I do question if Mack can be a long term answer for them or not. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Colts were to select a RB much higher than Mack in 2018 or 2019 to replace him. In the short term I see him having some opportunity to show what he can do though, and if he does do well, then you have an early sell opportunity if you do not believe in Mack long term or to just keep him and hope the Colts are happy enough with him to not upgrade right away.
There is one game on DBD and some highlights I was watching him the other day. He is another bowling ball style RB with good elusiveness and decent vision from the litle I watched of him.
He's old, weak and from a small school. That sounds a too mean. I'm not trying to cut him down but he has a tough road ahead of him and a short time to do it.
I didn't realize he was 24. I had previously written him off as too frail, but am intrigued at 218 pounds. He's on my 3rd round radar in deeper leagues.
For sure. He's a H/W/S guy and I think he went in the 3rd to Detroit. Which is a pretty decent spot.
The short timeframe is one reason I like him though. I will probably know what to do with his roster spot in less than a year. Can't say the same thing with most later round prospects and there are only so many stash roster spots at your disposal.
I get your thinking here but I'm not sure if this exact case will turn out that way. He's a 3rd round pick do it seems the Bears would cut him if he isn't up to par right away. He already has his headlines written for next year "Put on weight" and "Worked on his route running all offseason". Plus, if he doesn't play well I'm sure QB play will be a factor.
I picked him up in my rookie draft in the 3rd. he's in a really good situation with very little to block his path to relevance. Coaches were very complimentary of him after the draft - of course! - but they mentioned the need for his particular skills in their offense.
A friend of mine has been telling me that I needed to check out Matt Breida of Georgia Southern for awhle now. So I finally got around to that. Since I like reading peoples first impressions of a player I decided to take notes as I watch Brieda, to share that experience.
If there's anyone that fits the "shifty white slot" to a tee in the Welker/Edelman/Beasley mold... that actually has a chance to produce.... it's Taylor. Pretty decent situation too, especially if Hoyer is the starter.
Personally I wouldn't bother and would take Peterman later instead. I think with Webb you're hoping for Glennon. And he's a developmental guy who's a year or two away. Peterman is more ready and more likely to start soon. When Eli is done I think they will draft someone better.
Except that Eli is four years closer to the end of his career than he was when Nassib was drafted. That's not insignificant.
