I Am Rick James
Footballguy
Upside Smupside, I just want to know which one of the RB's is LEAST LIKELY TO BUST?
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Least likely RB to bust? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter I Am Rick James
- Start date
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
Portis. Clearly the most established of the group, plus his primary vulture is dinged up (and has been relatively often in last few seasons)
Crusaderfan
Footballguy
I went with Portis because he's the only proven guy in this group.
I Am Rick James
Footballguy
Absolutely, and I understand predicting is tough, but some guys are just more likely than others.
tomarken
Footballguy
Clearly Portis. Not sure how the vote is favoring Barber so much. Portis is a proven commodity. The only way he busts is injury. Barber has just as good a chance to get injured, PLUS he hasn't proven that he can be the man and live up to his ADP.
If the vote was "who will do better this year" or something then it's a little more subjective, but as far as "least likely to bust" I don't see how you could vote for anyone but Portis.
If the vote was "who will do better this year" or something then it's a little more subjective, but as far as "least likely to bust" I don't see how you could vote for anyone but Portis.
I Am Rick James
Footballguy
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
To the contrary, Portis has been injuried more than any of the ones mentioned here..................no?ETA: After checking, of the last 5yrs Portis has been injured 3 of those years. Let me also say that I think Gore is overrated. Barber or Lynch would be my picks here.ETAA: Portis AYP has dropped every since 2005: 4.3, 4.1, 3.9.
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thecardiackid
Footballguy
Interesting that the poll results (current) are MBIII 53% to Portis 24% - and essentially ALL of the guys who posted comments are saying Portis.Voting MBIII (over CP) b/c1. Campbell is <<< Romo2. WAS WRs are << DAL 3. I'm not afraid of F Jones vuluturing enough work to make me worry. Actually I'm glad they're not asking Barber to carry it 350x.4. I put my $ where my 
is, by taking MBIII #5 overall in a $$$ redraft.The lower 'bust' factor comes from being part of a solid offensive (and overall) team, where opportunities will be greater all around.
Routilla
Footballguy
It has to be MBIII because he's in a better offense. Man to man I don't see a lot of difference other than age.
EBF
Footballguy
The big difference I see is Felix Jones. He should cut into MB3's workload.
MAC_32
Footballguy
In that case, can I have a dartboard?
Routilla
Footballguy
gethugefast1
Footballguy
thatguy
Footballguy
Barber has never averaged 5+ YPC in his career. What makes you think that will change with a heavier workload?And it's pretty silly to think that Campbell did anything last season to take pressure off of Portis. Sure, he played decent, but everyone knew that offense went through Portis and planned accordingly.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
4.8 two years in a row is not too shabby.
thatguy
Footballguy
Not at all - in fact it's fantastic. Just wasn't sure where he was getting the 5+ figure from...I do agree that Barber probably has the least likely bust potential of the four, but Portis is about as safe as they come. I just get the feeling that Barber is less likely to break down than Portis.BigTex said:4.8 two years in a row is not too shabby.thatguy said:
Tanner9919
Footballguy
WYSIWYG Portis..he's ultra-reliable for about 1200/12td
radiohead417
Footballguy
Clearly I'm in the minority here, but I think Lynch is the safest of these four.
Barber has a first-round RB taking his carries, and I don't trust big backs to stay healthy. What if Felix Jones turns into Adrian Peterson?
Portis, I don't trust his offensive line and I think he's an injury risk.
Gore, he might do well in PPR, but he could also become Kevin Jones under Martz. He hasn't been the picture of health either.
I think MB3 has the best upside of the four, followed by Lynch and Portis. But I think Lynch is the safest of the three.
Barber has a first-round RB taking his carries, and I don't trust big backs to stay healthy. What if Felix Jones turns into Adrian Peterson?
Portis, I don't trust his offensive line and I think he's an injury risk.
Gore, he might do well in PPR, but he could also become Kevin Jones under Martz. He hasn't been the picture of health either.
I think MB3 has the best upside of the four, followed by Lynch and Portis. But I think Lynch is the safest of the three.
Barber scored less than 10 fantasy points in 8 out of 16 games last year (reg. season). Granted, his numbers would have been better without Jones stealing carries. But I am concerned the coach is committed to keeping Barber fresh given the fact Jones continued to get carries when it was clear he wasn't the RB Barber is.
Lynch scored less than 10 FP in 4 out of 12 games (and one of those was 9.8 points). Moreover, all of Lynch's games were at least 8.2 points whereas Barber had games of 7.2, 7.2, 5.9, 3.3, 5.0, 7.8, 3.2 and 0.1.
Portis has been fantastic with only 4 out of 16 games under 10 FP, and 9.1, 8.9, 8.1 and 4.5.
I drafted this year's first round pick (pick #6 in 12 team league) based on potential great numbers and potential bust. With the exception of Lynch's injury last year I think Lynch has more upside than Barber if Dallas continues with its propensity to give some carries to the #2 RB. Lynch doesn't share the spotlight with anyone when healthy (or at least you can bank on 20 or so carries each week). Plus his schedule is MUCH easier this year and the team should be improved all around. Plus Buff is more run prone (slightly) than Dallas.
I took him over Portis due to the miles (not a ton yet, but 5 years and a lot more than Lynch) on Portis plus, while Portis is a model of great, consistent production, I felt the floor on both were about the same with Lynch having greater potential to put up awesome numbers.
I think all are great backs and I think Portis has the least bust potential, but I went with Lynch as I don't perceive serious bust risk.
Obviously, Barber has shown the least injury risk, so he wins that battle.
Lynch scored less than 10 FP in 4 out of 12 games (and one of those was 9.8 points). Moreover, all of Lynch's games were at least 8.2 points whereas Barber had games of 7.2, 7.2, 5.9, 3.3, 5.0, 7.8, 3.2 and 0.1.
Portis has been fantastic with only 4 out of 16 games under 10 FP, and 9.1, 8.9, 8.1 and 4.5.
I drafted this year's first round pick (pick #6 in 12 team league) based on potential great numbers and potential bust. With the exception of Lynch's injury last year I think Lynch has more upside than Barber if Dallas continues with its propensity to give some carries to the #2 RB. Lynch doesn't share the spotlight with anyone when healthy (or at least you can bank on 20 or so carries each week). Plus his schedule is MUCH easier this year and the team should be improved all around. Plus Buff is more run prone (slightly) than Dallas.
I took him over Portis due to the miles (not a ton yet, but 5 years and a lot more than Lynch) on Portis plus, while Portis is a model of great, consistent production, I felt the floor on both were about the same with Lynch having greater potential to put up awesome numbers.
I think all are great backs and I think Portis has the least bust potential, but I went with Lynch as I don't perceive serious bust risk.
Obviously, Barber has shown the least injury risk, so he wins that battle.
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Banger
Footballguy
I guess it depends on your definition of bust. To me, it means that they don't live up to their draft position. If that's the case, I don't really get how people are saying the Barber is the safest of the group when he's never been the #1 back on his team and there's uncertainty on how Felix will be used. Portis has done it for years and his role is unchanged. Portis is clearly the "safer" pick. Is he the better pick? That's another debate.
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Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I'm very surprised at the poll results, I thought this question was easy and I still do. The answer is Portis, he's the one guy who's had the most success at being a feature back out of this group.
I Am Rick James
Footballguy
Some great insight guys!
Picking 10th tomorrow, I will need just one and they may all be there, or MB3 and Portis might be gone. If that happens, I now feel more confident about Lynch, as I HATE BUSTS!
Picking 10th tomorrow, I will need just one and they may all be there, or MB3 and Portis might be gone. If that happens, I now feel more confident about Lynch, as I HATE BUSTS!
unless Romo or TO get hurt - then the offense grinds to a halt.Todd Collins has proven to be able to move the offense. They had no WRs last year and Portis still produced - whatever they add this year at WR is a plus.Lynch will struggle without Peters at LT. He will be hit more often and will miss time with injuries. Chamber can't run block at all at RT. In addition, Bills will use Fred Jackson much more on 3rd downs since he is more explosive and better able to handle routes and blitz pickup than Lynch at this point.Interesting that the poll results (current) are MBIII 53% to Portis 24% - and essentially ALL of the guys who posted comments are saying Portis.Voting MBIII (over CP) b/c1. Campbell is <<< Romo2. WAS WRs are << DAL 3. I'm not afraid of F Jones vuluturing enough work to make me worry. Actually I'm glad they're not asking Barber to carry it 350x.4. I put my $ where my
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
The poll struck me as a Barber lover or potential Barber drafter looking to rationalize avoiding Gore. I would take Barber ahead of these 3 if it makes you feel better.
LT
ADP
SJAX
Westy
Barber
Portis
Addai
Lynch
Johnson (yes, Larry Johnson)
Gore
Others
LT
ADP
SJAX
Westy
Barber
Portis
Addai
Lynch
Johnson (yes, Larry Johnson)
Gore
Others
eric rymer
Footballguy
well good luck in your draft. just from the drafts I've seen, Gore and MB3 will most likely be gone. Most draft I've seen have them both gone by 1.8. Your choice will probably come down to Portis and Lynch. chime in and let us know how it turns out. FWIW I'd take Portis. Lynch does have a great SOS though.I Am Rick James said:
thecardiackid
Footballguy
Romo, yes. B Johnson would HURT the cause - and T Collins is probably a better backup option @ this point. I'll give you that.TO - not so sure about that. Romo (himself), plus Whitten and the other WRs will keep opposing Ds from putting 8 in 'the box'. And maybe DAL reverts to MORE of a power run game strategy w/o TO. Playing good D and grinding out clock.Either way, I can't base my 1st round RB pick on whether or not the starting QB or WR will get injured. I still think MBIII is the safest of this group simply b/c of his situation. And again, I'm glad they are not expecting to put in a 2006 LJ type of season w/ 350 carries. I'll take 250ish w/ 40 or so recptions and the red zone work. He's the best bet for 1250+ and 14 of this group - w/ upside for more.Obie Wan said:unless Romo or TO get hurt - then the offense grinds to a halt.Todd Collins has proven to be able to move the offense. They had no WRs last year and Portis still produced - whatever they add this year at WR is a plus.Lynch will struggle without Peters at LT. He will be hit more often and will miss time with injuries. Chamber can't run block at all at RT. In addition, Bills will use Fred Jackson much more on 3rd downs since he is more explosive and better able to handle routes and blitz pickup than Lynch at this point.Interesting that the poll results (current) are MBIII 53% to Portis 24% - and essentially ALL of the guys who posted comments are saying Portis.Voting MBIII (over CP) b/c1. Campbell is <<< Romo2. WAS WRs are << DAL 3. I'm not afraid of F Jones vuluturing enough work to make me worry. Actually I'm glad they're not asking Barber to carry it 350x.4. I put my $ where my
is, by taking MBIII #5 overall in a $$$ redraft.The lower 'bust' factor comes from being part of a solid offensive (and overall) team, where opportunities will be greater all around.
tomarken
Footballguy
This is absolutely ridiculous. Portis has been in the league for six years, and has put up 1250+ in five of them. The one year he didn't was the one year he missed significant time due to injury - and before he went down his YPC would have him on pace to exceed 1250 yards that season too.
tomarken
Footballguy
I don't see how this is obvious.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
in the last five years portis's numbers looked like:games played/rush attempts/rush yards/rush td's2007 16/325/1262/112006 7/127/523/72005 16/352/15162004 15/343/1315/52003 13/290/1591/14oh and 2003 when he started ONLY 13 games he went to the Pro Bowl. his "injury history" holds no water.
tomarken
Footballguy
Exactly. And in 2006, the only year he really missed significant time, it was because of a shoulder he popped while playing D on an interception return, and a fluky broken hand. It's not like he's plagued by recurring knee injuries or something. Portis may not have the upside as some of the other backs but he is clearly the safest bet.
hoochiemama
Footballguy
ADDAI
Portis would get my vote, if Joe Gibbs were still HC. But with Zorn, we have no idea what his role will be, or how many touches he will get.
I vote for Lynch. He is going to be in an offense that will feed him the ball 20+ times regularly (more than you can say for the other 3), plus his o-line is pretty damn good, excellent if they get Peters back. I've always been of the opinion that the o-line is more important than the RB.
I vote for Lynch. He is going to be in an offense that will feed him the ball 20+ times regularly (more than you can say for the other 3), plus his o-line is pretty damn good, excellent if they get Peters back. I've always been of the opinion that the o-line is more important than the RB.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I don't know why people have this much faith in a guy that has never done it before. Heck, his own team can't even be that confident as they spent a #1 and a #4 this year in the draft on rb's.
Portis is by far the answer here
4 out of 6 years in the league he has been in the top 6, let's give the guy alittle respect
his floor is 1400 and 10 this year
Barber has never even rushed for 1,000 yards and hasn't even eclipsed 205 carries in a year
Portis is by far the answer here
4 out of 6 years in the league he has been in the top 6, let's give the guy alittle respect
his floor is 1400 and 10 this year
Barber has never even rushed for 1,000 yards and hasn't even eclipsed 205 carries in a year
His FLOOR is 1400 and 10? This isn't a Joe Gibbs team, its a Jim Zorn team.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
BS, "injury history" does hold water and Portis AYPC has been on the decline. This is not my opinion this is a fact.
