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Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Lee Evans Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Lee Evans has really struggled when he is the #1 guy. Plus, the Bills don't have a QB on the roster that can throw a deep ball (or has the guts to throw it) which is Evans specialty. And if you can double-team Evans, you can shut him down. Also, you can write off the two games vs the Jets where Revis will shut him down. But on the positive side for Evans, the Bills don't have any other decent options to throw to, so Evans should get a large percentage of the passing offense thrown his way.

I think 55 catches, 840 yards and 4 TDs is realistic. He is the best fantasy option on the team, unless a RB emerges from the RBBC.

 
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I know it's hard to predict TDs, but Evans had 7 TDs last season, pretty good TD total. If he can post 900 yards and another 7 TDs, that's pretty good value for where Evans can be had in drafts.

 
I get this feeling that now that almost everyone has given up on him, that this will be the year he lives up to his talent. I think he's worth a look, especially since he is currently being drafted as a WR4 in many leagues. Say what you want about Chan Gailey, but he does have a history of getting the ball to his playmakers, and frankly any offensive mind would have been an upgrade over Jauron for Buffalo.

I'll say 130 targets 70 catches 1,100 yards and 8 TD's is his upside. He's a great value as a WR4 and with a little luck could put up WR2 numbers.

 
I get this feeling that now that almost everyone has given up on him, that this will be the year he lives up to his talent. I think he's worth a look, especially since he is currently being drafted as a WR4 in many leagues. Say what you want about Chan Gailey, but he does have a history of getting the ball to his playmakers, and frankly any offensive mind would have been an upgrade over Jauron for Buffalo.I'll say 130 targets 70 catches 1,100 yards and 8 TD's is his upside. He's a great value as a WR4 and with a little luck could put up WR2 numbers.
I doubt that the Bills will pass enough to have a WR get 130 targets. I like the thinking though that now everyone has given up on him, he'll do something of note - WR25/30 finish at best IMO.
 
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Lee Evans has always been looked at as a guy who's had potential but never really lived up to it. The Bills passing game is way below average and I just don't see how Evans ends up doing anything different than what he has done in the past, and that's finish in the middle of the pack.

51 receptions for 700 yards and 5 td's

 
The claim that Evans "has never lived up to WR1" expectations is false. He did it in 2006 with J.P. Losman as his QB no less! He had 82 receptions and almost 1300 yards. That's pretty elite. Since then he has not lived up to that standard but in his defense he has suffered through some of the worst QBs who have played in recent years and a constant turnover at OC. This past season he had to compete for looks with TO. The main thing holding him back is quarterback play.

That being said, I am not convinced that Buffalo's QB play will improve in 2010. Chan Gailey is an improvement at HC. TO is gone. It is hard not to imagine him at least returning to the reception and yardage of 2008 as a FLOOR: that year he was 63 for 1017 yards. He had a career low in TDs that year, and I prefer to take his career average for TDs, which is 6.5 Tds/year.

His floor in 2010: 63 for 1000 and 6 TDs

His ceiling, which is attainable if the QB play improves: 80, 1250, 9 TDs

My prediction will be between the floor and ceiling:

71 receptions, 1125 yards, 7 TDs

 
The claim that Evans "has never lived up to WR1" expectations is false. He did it in 2006 with J.P. Losman as his QB no less! He had 82 receptions and almost 1300 yards. That's pretty elite. Since then he has not lived up to that standard but in his defense he has suffered through some of the worst QBs who have played in recent years and a constant turnover at OC. This past season he had to compete for looks with TO. The main thing holding him back is quarterback play.That being said, I am not convinced that Buffalo's QB play will improve in 2010. Chan Gailey is an improvement at HC. TO is gone. It is hard not to imagine him at least returning to the reception and yardage of 2008 as a FLOOR: that year he was 63 for 1017 yards. He had a career low in TDs that year, and I prefer to take his career average for TDs, which is 6.5 Tds/year.His floor in 2010: 63 for 1000 and 6 TDsHis ceiling, which is attainable if the QB play improves: 80, 1250, 9 TDsMy prediction will be between the floor and ceiling:71 receptions, 1125 yards, 7 TDs
I will look like a genius if he he pulls down those numbers as I just grabbed him in the 13th round of a start up dynasty league as my WR6.He is all they got at WR so he will have to get catches by default.
 
I agree that Evans is being undervalued this year. I'd take him over any Raider WR.

The real problem I have with Evans is how streaky he is. If he is your WR4, and not in the starting line up every week, you can miss those huge games he has. If you start him every week and you can expect some pretty lousy games from him. I like Evans in 16 team leagues as WR3. I could live with him at WR3 in a twelve team league IF I am stacked at RB, QB and TE.

 
Bumpity. Got "stuck" with Evans late in the 9th round, and hadn't really given him any thought this year. I would love, love, love it if he could replicate Bowe's 2008 production of 1022/7 in Gailey's offense. Any insight from Bills homers as to how things might turn out?

 
I'm a little shocked at those saying he's never lived up to his potential. He has had some very good seasons; the problem is that he has outperformed his ADP only once. But for this year's price, he'd make a fine WR4. He is one of only a few guys available so late that (1) has proven he can "do it" and (2) is young enough that his physical talents haven't eroded. I'm not expecting top-10 numbers, but for the price I think he is a nice value.

65 catches, 950 yards, 7 touchdowns

 
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I'm a little shocked at those saying he's never lived up to his potential. He has had some very good seasons; the problem is that he has outperformed his ADP only once. But for this year's price, he'd make a fine WR4. He is one of only a few guys available so late that (1) has proven he can "do it" and (2) is young enough that his physical talents haven't eroded. I'm not expecting top-10 numbers, but for the price I think he is a nice value.

65 catches, 950 yards, 7 touchdowns
That's WR20 last year. I would take that any day.
 
I'm a little shocked at those saying he's never lived up to his potential. He has had some very good seasons; the problem is that he has outperformed his ADP only once. But for this year's price, he'd make a fine WR4. He is one of only a few guys available so late that (1) has proven he can "do it" and (2) is young enough that his physical talents haven't eroded. I'm not expecting top-10 numbers, but for the price I think he is a nice value.

65 catches, 950 yards, 7 touchdowns
That's WR20 last year. I would take that any day.
The key is in the TDs for him. 3 or 4 TDs and he's comparable to quite a few guys. 6-8 TDs and suddenly he's a very valuable guy that far exceeds expectations.
 
I'm a little shocked at those saying he's never lived up to his potential. He has had some very good seasons; the problem is that he has outperformed his ADP only once. But for this year's price, he'd make a fine WR4. He is one of only a few guys available so late that (1) has proven he can "do it" and (2) is young enough that his physical talents haven't eroded. I'm not expecting top-10 numbers, but for the price I think he is a nice value.

65 catches, 950 yards, 7 touchdowns
That's WR20 last year. I would take that any day.
The key is in the TDs for him. 3 or 4 TDs and he's comparable to quite a few guys. 6-8 TDs and suddenly he's a very valuable guy that far exceeds expectations.
For sure. Given his average of 6.5 TDs/year, plus the NonJauron factor of 2010, I like his chances for 7+.
 
Lee Evans has really struggled when he is the #1 guy. Plus, the Bills don't have a QB on the roster that can throw a deep ball (or has the guts to throw it) which is Evans specialty. And if you can double-team Evans, you can shut him down. Also, you can write off the two games vs the Jets where Revis will shut him down. But on the positive side for Evans, the Bills don't have any other decent options to throw to, so Evans should get a large percentage of the passing offense thrown his way.

I think 55 catches, 840 yards and 4 TDs is realistic. He is the best fantasy option on the team, unless a RB emerges from the RBBC.
Some good news here in that one of the Bills/Jets games is week 17.Looking for any silver lining I can with this pick.

 
Evans recent numbers, or lack thereof, are a direct result of **** Jauron and his Pop Warner offense. Evans will hit 1000 yards/8-10 TDs this year but there is almost no chance of him putting up the numbers he really should be. The O-line still needs help at OT and a QB that isn't afraid to make decisions. The best thing for Evans is that he finally has an offensive-minded coach who's been able to find passing success with sub-par QBs and a ton of talent in the backfield.

 
Lee Evans has really struggled when he is the #1 guy. Plus, the Bills don't have a QB on the roster that can throw a deep ball (or has the guts to throw it) which is Evans specialty. And if you can double-team Evans, you can shut him down. Also, you can write off the two games vs the Jets where Revis will shut him down. But on the positive side for Evans, the Bills don't have any other decent options to throw to, so Evans should get a large percentage of the passing offense thrown his way.

I think 55 catches, 840 yards and 4 TDs is realistic. He is the best fantasy option on the team, unless a RB emerges from the RBBC.
Some good news here in that one of the Bills/Jets games is week 17.Looking for any silver lining I can with this pick.
Yancey Thigpen had a 6th place finish in 1997 with 79 receptions, 1,398 yards, and 7 TDs in a Chan Gailey offense. How's that? :wall:
 
Lee Evans has really struggled when he is the #1 guy. Plus, the Bills don't have a QB on the roster that can throw a deep ball (or has the guts to throw it) which is Evans specialty. And if you can double-team Evans, you can shut him down. Also, you can write off the two games vs the Jets where Revis will shut him down. But on the positive side for Evans, the Bills don't have any other decent options to throw to, so Evans should get a large percentage of the passing offense thrown his way.

I think 55 catches, 840 yards and 4 TDs is realistic. He is the best fantasy option on the team, unless a RB emerges from the RBBC.
Some good news here in that one of the Bills/Jets games is week 17.Looking for any silver lining I can with this pick.
Yancey Thigpen had a 6th place finish in 1997 with 79 receptions, 1,398 yards, and 7 TDs in a Chan Gailey offense. How's that? ;)
:lmao:
 
I am thinking of dropping Mason to pick up Evans.....who went undrafted. Figured Mason has way too much competition for catches now.

 
The 70 yard TD he caught Thursday night was pretty nice.
Had to be blown coverage though. No one was in 10 yards of him.
Looks like the Colts were playing the run with 9 players within 5 yards of the line. Bills had 3 backs. Colts seemed to bite on the playaction. The guy on Evans drops back, Evans burns past him, maybe he didn't drive back as hard as he should, if he was watching the Bills backfield and not Evans. The Safety must have bit on the playaction and moved in or went across the field to cover the other WR. #27 for the Colts has some wheels! he was on the 35, on the opposite side of the field as Evans and was able to get within a few yards of Evans.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0Z4RlA7yZ4

 
I've been holding on to Evans all off-season in hopes that Gailey can work some magic. I just hope he can do something along the lines of a bye-week type of guy.

60-800 4 td sounds about right.

 
Interesting Writeup on the Bills' new offense and how Evans will be utilized differently than prior in his career.

As a Bills homer and Evans fan, I'm still skeptical that the guy can run any other route besides the streak. If he can show success with underneath and crossing routes, then he might finally break into the elite category.

 
I've kept him. If he comes back after the bye and continues to stink up the place then he'll be gone but I need WRs pretty bad.

 
'wudaben said:
I've kept him. If he comes back after the bye and continues to stink up the place then he'll be gone but I need WRs pretty bad.
Let us all know how that works out.
I'll make sure to PM you to keep you in the loop!FWIW...that was more of a reply to a few posters in general in this thread that were asking what people were doing with the bum, not really about my team in general. I'd think that if you've held out this long one might as well wait until after the bye week.
 
dropping him. don't really view him as usuable... sure he may have one or two big weeks, but when? If you have better bye week options, he's totally a drop.

 
with the way Flacco has been playing, not sure Evans can be a reliable contributor to any lineup except under extreme desperation. Boldin, Dickson, Rice and now Torrey seem to command too many targets -- Evans won't get enough even if he makes the most of his.

 
2010 not 2011 thread bump. Appreciate the search N bump, just an FYI if someone didn't notice.

 

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