So, I wound up with Evans this year, as he just kept staring me in the face round after round until I broke down and drafted him. Reluctantly. He just wasn't a guy I wanted on my team, although I hadn't really dug into his situation for 2010. Here's what I have found, as mentioned in some of the posts above:QB Play - No change. Still Trentative <--love this.RB Play - Improved. The added dimension that Spiller will bring should open up some of the more intermediate routes for Evans, and the overall depth at the position could mean more complexity for defenses to pay attention to.WR Play - Addition by subtraction. In some cases, having two WR threats helps, sometimes it hurts. Given the limited amount of overall offensive production out of the Bills, I think it helps Evans that Owens is gone. There just weren't enough balls to go around. Evans had his worst statistical performance for FF last year.Offensive Line Play - Slightly improved, but a lot still to be determined.Defense - Yet another team to adopt the 3-4, I view the transition to be flat. They will likely come out ahead long-term, but we won't see an uptick this season.Coaching - Huge improvement. Gailey runs circles around Jauron, especially on offense.I see nothing that would lead me to believe that Evans will get worse in 2010. To the contrary, there is reason for some very cautious, controlled optimism. Let's take a look at how Evans has finished historically:2009 - 36th, 103 points2008 - 27th, 122 points2007 - 32nd, 115 points2006 - 7th, 177 points2005 - 29th, 120 points2004 - 24th, 147 pointsThat's an average of 130.7 points including his huge year, and 121.4 points if you remove it as an outlier. Over the course of Evans' career, those averages typically place him at either WR24 (with the huge year) or WR28 (without)...never finishing outside of WR3. That said, I think it's very safe to project WR28 with upside this year. Let's take this further, though, by defining what that range actually means:WR36, the lowest startable WR3, scored 103 points last year (Evans).WR28, our safe projection, scored 116 (Nicks, Wallace)WR24, the lowest startable WR2, scored 129 (MSW)Exactly thirteen points separates each tier. Less than one point a game.So, when it comes to Lee Evans, I think you need to be willing to accept the inconsistency that he is known for, knowing that you will have a solid WR3 with WR2 upside at the end of the season. You cannot use him as a bye week filler or match-up/spot starter. You will get burned. He'll hit when he's on your bench, and he'll skunk when you start him. He needs to go in your line-up and stay there. In return, you will have the opportunity to draft guys that have that high upside you're looking for. ADP shows that WR28 is being drafted in the 7th round. Evans is being drafted in the 10th. You just freed up your 7th round and beyond to get guys like Ahmad Bradshaw, Pierre Garcon, Terrell Owens (ironic), Justin Forsett, Jerome Harrison, Eli Manning, Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Santana Moss, Michael Bush, Malcolm Floyd, Johnny Knox, etc."Swinging for the fences" in the mid-rounds is a good thing. It's even better when you know you've got a base hit already.
