Leonard Fournette 2018 Spotlight (1 Viewer)

[Dan Hindery]

Not a ton of discussion on Fournette so far.

There are at least 4 things I've been kicking around in my head while doing projections that are worth discussing:

1. How heavy will his workload be in carries?

-Between the 13 regular season games he played and the 3 playoff games, he had 338 carries. The only guys who have had that sort of workload (20+ carries per game) in recent years are Le'Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott. Feels like Fournette belongs in that group, but can you really project him for 320 or 330 carries?

2. How involved will Fournette be as a pass catcher?

-Fournette had 36 receptions in 13 games. Already a bigger number than most expected. There's talk he could see even more this year, which makes sense given how productive he was as a receiver (75% catch rate, etc.).

3. What do we make of the weight loss (down to 223)?

-This has generally been a good thing for bigger backs, with Le'Veon Bell's improvement after slimming down between his first and second seasons as the most glaring example. Related to the pass catching, if Fournette is indeed quicker, does that lead to another reception per game over last year's pace?

4. How worrisome are the ankle injuries?

-He's been plagued by this issue each of the last two seasons. He still put up big numbers last season. On the one hand, the injury history makes you a little bit hesitant to draft him due to the chance of recurrence (though the weight loss could help him). On the other hand, the injury problems last year point to Fournette having even more upside if he can be at 100% for a full 16 games. 

My personal lean is toward the belief that Jacksonville is old school and will have no qualms about giving Fournette 20+ carries every single game. If his pass game usage stays the same as last year, he'd catch 44 passes too. If the passing game usage ticks up even a little bit and Fournette catches 50+, he would have a monster fantasy season. 

 

[matttyl]

I'm a fan of the weight loss.  Leads to being not only a tad quicker, but also helps with his stamina.  He was taken out last year all the time for being winded - that might not happen as much down a few pounds.

 

[eoMMan]

I'm a fan of the weight loss.  Leads to being not only a tad quicker, but also helps with his stamina.  He was taken out last year all the time for being winded - that might not happen as much down a few pounds.

I was just about to post the same thing.  Whenever I hear of a running back "bulking" up in the off-season, I groan.  I think losing a little bit of weight, especially for a guy who is already a big guy and has battled ankle injuries, is great thing.

Also, he's on the most (or close to the most) run first offense in the league....and playing with one of the best defenses in the game (can you say "grind out the clock"?).

My only knock on him would be his receptions.  He won't get as many catches as some of the other elite backs.

 

[matttyl]

I was just about to post the same thing.  Whenever I hear of a running back "bulking" up in the off-season, I groan.  I think losing a little bit of weight, especially for a guy who is already a big guy and has battled ankle injuries, is great thing.

Also, he's on the most (or close to the most) run first offense in the league....and playing with one of the best defenses in the game (can you say "grind out the clock"?).

My only knock on him would be his receptions.  He won't get as many catches as some of the other elite backs.

Well, the most rushing plays - if that's what you mean.  They had 527, next was Minnesota at 501.  They even lead the league in plays from scrimmage. 

 

[Chaka]

His efficiency is a concern for me along with the foot/ankle issues.

Four of 16 games with a YPC above 4 and six games with a YPC below 3. 

I understand that has to do with teams stacking the box (blah blah blah blah blah). Do we really see that changing dramatically? Marrone is gonna run no matter what and te WRs inspire zero confidence. And it seems like Yeldon and Grant, who were both very efficient on limited touches, may get a few more opportunities. Maybe not a ton but enough to impact Fournette's opportunities.

The biggest positives are the signing of Norwell and the weight loss and perhaps you could make an argument for Bortles improving.

I expect about the same as last year. Good volume with lower end efficiency.

 

[Boston]

I was just about to post the same thing.  Whenever I hear of a running back "bulking" up in the off-season, I groan.  I think losing a little bit of weight, especially for a guy who is already a big guy and has battled ankle injuries, is great thing.

Also, he's on the most (or close to the most) run first offense in the league....and playing with one of the best defenses in the game (can you say "grind out the clock"?).

My only knock on him would be his receptions.  He won't get as many catches as some of the other elite backs.

I think his receptions were OK last year considering the offense he played in and that he missed 3 games...48 targets, 36 receptions, 302 yards and 1 TD...add in 3 games (sorry to play that game) and it comes out to 59 targets and 44 receptions...for a rookie on a conservative offense who is seen as being far more of a runner I don't think he's gonna hurt you in that area as long as he does what he should be doing on the ground...obviously he is not a Bell or Johnson or Gurley in that area and that is one of the reasons he is getting drafted after them...he needs to prove he can play 16 games and if he does I really see no scenario where he is not a top 10 RB...

 

[matttyl]

Four of 16 games with a YPC above 4 and six games with a YPC below 3.

To be fair he missed 3 regular season games, 2 vs bottom 7 run defenses - then had two games where a rounding error would have given him a 4.0 average (week 1 where if they gave the 1 yard TD to someone else he would have had 99 yards on 25 carries, the TD run actually hurt his average; and week 14 where he was 1 yard away from a 4.0 average going 111 yards on 28 carries).  That was as a rookie, battling injuries. 

He'll likely be around 4.0 yards per carry on the season this year (was 3.88 last year), with his receptions taking him close to 4.5 per touch (4.4 last year).  With between 300-350 touches (if healthy), that's in the neighborhood of 1,500 total yards.  I'll take that.

 

[Chaka]

To be fair he missed 3 regular season games, 2 vs bottom 7 run defenses - then had two games where a rounding error would have given him a 4.0 average (week 1 where if they gave the 1 yard TD to someone else he would have had 99 yards on 25 carries, the TD run actually hurt his average; and week 14 where he was 1 yard away from a 4.0 average going 111 yards on 28 carries).  That was as a rookie, battling injuries. 

He'll likely be around 4.0 yards per carry on the season this year (was 3.88 last year), with his receptions taking him close to 4.5 per touch (4.4 last year).  With between 300-350 touches (if healthy), that's in the neighborhood of 1,500 total yards.  I'll take that.

And if you take away two of his 268 runs, and nobody likes when we do that, his season long YPC would have been 3.3.

Point being that we can really only go by the results, everything else is more justification than anything.

 

[Milkman]

Don't forget Jac improved there already decent OL in the offseason. They are building this team around Fournette. He's going to have a good year. 

 

[matttyl]

And if you take away two of his 268 runs, and nobody likes when we do that, his season long YPC would have been 3.3.

Point being that we can really only go by the results, everything else is more justification than anything.

True.  10 out of 13 games he either had a TD or 100 yards rushing, or both.  12 out of 16 with the playoffs.  Gulrey was also 12 out of 16 (with out of those being a 101 yard no TD game), Bell being 10 out of 16, and Hunt being 10 out of 17.  Efficiency might matter more in dynasty (could lead to shorter careers if getting 350+ touches a year over and over), but as long as he's getting that many touches, the guy is a solid (though possibly not "top end" elite) #1 RB.

 

[Milkman]

Bortles hurts his upside too. That offense will never be elite with him at QB so 20 TD's out of reach. His floor and ceiling are still great though. He's just not going to have a Gurley or DJ type year and win you your league all by himself. 

 

[Chaka]

True.  10 out of 13 games he either had a TD or 100 yards rushing, or both.  12 out of 16 with the playoffs.  Gulrey was also 12 out of 16 (with out of those being a 101 yard no TD game), Bell being 10 out of 16, and Hunt being 10 out of 17.  Efficiency might matter more in dynasty (could lead to shorter careers if getting 350+ touches a year over and over), but as long as he's getting that many touches, the guy is a solid (though possibly not "top end" elite) #1 RB.

Like I said, I like him as a volume play.  I am just not sure he ever jumps to the Gurley, Bell, Zeke tier.  That isn't a knock as few ever do, but I like him a little less than about eight other guys and there a few I have slotted after Fournette that I might prefer rolling the dice on.

He's gonna eat that's for sure but, right now I doubt he ends up on my team.

 

[matttyl]

Like I said, I like him as a volume play.  I am just not sure he ever jumps to the Gurley, Bell, Zeke tier.  That isn't a knock as few ever do, but I like him a little less than about eight other guys and there a few I have slotted after Fournette that I might prefer rolling the dice on.

He's gonna eat that's for sure but, right now I doubt he ends up on my team.

Who ya got?  I agree on the 3 you listed, but after that he's right there for me.  I wanna see Johnson back first, especially with a new QB and coach.  I'd also like to see Barkley on the field first, he might end up being similar to Fournette, just with fewer carriers.

 

[Gawain]

Who ya got?  I agree on the 3 you listed, but after that he's right there for me.  I wanna see Johnson back first, especially with a new QB and coach.  I'd also like to see Barkley on the field first, he might end up being similar to Fournette, just with fewer carriers.

Barkley is a better receiver. In a PPR league, think the choice is pretty clear.

Kamara's going to be involved in the passing game is a way that Fournette won't be.

I have Fournette as RB 7, but can understand the arguments to put Cook/Gordon/Hunt ahead of him.

In non-PPR, I slide him ahead of Kamara.

 

[bostonfred]

Fantasy points are a simple formula.  Number of touches times points per touch. Fournette is going to get a lot of touches, and that's the hardest part.  Most backs will never get the volume he will, and that volume is enough to make him a rb1 on its own. 

If he can increase on his points per touch, the sky's the limit. 

He's gotten lighter, he's going into year two, he's highly talented and the team is expected to be a contender.  There's a very real chance he moves into the super elite tier. 

I don't own him much but I sure would like to. 

 

[eoMMan]

Barkley is a better receiver. In a PPR league, think the choice is pretty clear.

Kamara's going to be involved in the passing game is a way that Fournette won't be.

I have Fournette as RB 7, but can understand the arguments to put Cook/Gordon/Hunt ahead of him.

In non-PPR, I slide him ahead of Kamara.

I like Kamara but his yards per touch last year were sick .  I'm afraid he'll regress like CJ Spiller did back in the day.

IMO, Kamara could be the riskiest of the top 7 or 8 RB's.  I think Fournette is one of the safest to finish in the top 7 or 8.

 

[Interseptopus]

My concern about Fournette is his ankle instability. This is something that'll be forever for him. I imagine he's making the best of it, but it's definitely an increased risk for injury that many other backs don't have. He gets volume, so there is lots of value to be had there. If I were to draft him I would try to get Yeldon. Although Yeldon might carve out some work in the passing offense himself. 

 

[Milkman]

Great write up @Dan Hindery!

Lets hope for a healthy season!