LeSean McCoy dynasty value (1 Viewer)

[dmac37]

I would love to hear Bloom, F&L, EBF, SSOG and any others discuss their opinions on McCoy

McCoy seems to be drawing a lot of interest lately, I'm sure most are thinking Westy retires or moves on. I have not seen much of him at Pitt or enough at Philly this season.

He seemed to be thought of as top 3 RB talent coming out of the draft until his combine numbers came out. The longer I follow football the more I believe production plus the eyeball test trumps combine type numbers.

McCoy may never be a true bell cow RB but can he run inside well enough to take over the Westy role and as young as he is does he have the body frame to fill out more?

 

[fruity pebbles]

from watching him play i don't think he's that good. I'd be looking to sell him this offseason

 

[grapeape]

way too early to say he's not good, and I'm a Skins fan.

 

[JetMaxx]

from watching him play i don't think he's that good. I'd be looking to sell him this offseason

That is my impression as well. He seems to be a VERY poor mans Reggie Bush. A lot of juke and jive but not a lot of substance. He has decent vision but doesn't run with much power. He has talent but doesn't seem to have that extra little burst and finish that the good ones show right away. That said, he could be one of those "opportunity" RB and in Philly that could be significant. I'm holding unless one of the Eagles homers on my league gets overly excited about him.

 

[Blackjacks]

I was told my a dynasty owner that he was worthy of a top 3 pick this year for trade value due to him being a "Westbrook" clone.

I don't see this at all. Westbrrok ran with alot of power and McCoy, to be nice, doesn't. He jukes good and can run through a hole and catches the ball good

but I don't ever see him as a complete running back. He is however a good fit for the Philly offense due to them never really showing a power running game.

I see him as a good flex player or a good 3 rb next year

 

[rowmacks]

Traded him straight up for Jamaal Charles.

 

[D'OHtis]

Not impressed at all. Thought Weaver was their best back. I'd take a shot at Reggie or McFadden [vastly superior athletes] before him.

I'd sell for a Top 5 pick [something I don't think you will have problems getting]. You get something better than that, it's all gravy.

 

[metoo]

In a PPR dynasty league I offered 2010 1.7. He countered with 1.5 for McCoy and I turned that down.

 

[fruity pebbles]

He was traded for the 1.04 in one of my leagues. I'd rather have the 1.04

 

[MAC_32]

I'd rather have a top 5 pick, and if I'm in need of a potential long term option at either WR (Thomas) or QB (Bradford) I'd rather have a top 7 pick. Once getting to pick 8 I'd begin to think about getting Shady, I just don't think he has the make up of a feature back. What we saw/read this past offseason was more of what we saw on the field this year, nothing special.

 

[Matt Waldman]

Traded him straight up for Jamaal Charles.

Often discussed leading up to this draft was McCoy's ability to make great cuts and find the holes in much the way Charles could. Both players often went for the high degree of difficulty decision at the line of scrimmage rather than showing the maturity to lower the pads and get the tough 3-4 yards, and maybe break a tackle for a much bigger gain than expected. This is a similar issue Laurence Maroney had, and didn't begin to grow past until this year. The same could be said for Reggie Bush , who showed flashes yesterday of what he used to do at USC but abandoned to press for the big play too often as a runner in New Orleans. Charles' game matured this year. Maroney's was more up and down because he flashed better decisions but still had moments of immaturity. Both Maroney and Bush have some injury concerns. All three of these players in my opinion are more explosive runners than McCoy and play behind offenses that are more run-friendly in their offensive schemes than McCoy. Westbrook in his prime was noticeably more explosive than McCoy.McCoy still has room to develop because one of the reasons he looks less explosive is that he's still thinking too much as he approaches the LOS with the ball in his hand. However, I never thought he was as explosive as a Charles, Maroney, or Bush while studying these players in college.

 

[dmac37]

Traded him straight up for Jamaal Charles.

Often discussed leading up to this draft was McCoy's ability to make great cuts and find the holes in much the way Charles could. Both players often went for the high degree of difficulty decision at the line of scrimmage rather than showing the maturity to lower the pads and get the tough 3-4 yards, and maybe break a tackle for a much bigger gain than expected. This is a similar issue Laurence Maroney had, and didn't begin to grow past until this year. The same could be said for Reggie Bush , who showed flashes yesterday of what he used to do at USC but abandoned to press for the big play too often as a runner in New Orleans. Charles' game matured this year. Maroney's was more up and down because he flashed better decisions but still had moments of immaturity. Both Maroney and Bush have some injury concerns. All three of these players in my opinion are more explosive runners than McCoy and play behind offenses that are more run-friendly in their offensive schemes than McCoy. Westbrook in his prime was noticeably more explosive than McCoy.McCoy still has room to develop because one of the reasons he looks less explosive is that he's still thinking too much as he approaches the LOS with the ball in his hand. However, I never thought he was as explosive as a Charles, Maroney, or Bush while studying these players in college.

Thanks Matt I value your opinion, I would of included you with the other heavy hitters listed but I was able to pull out my copy of your RSP to get your take on McCoy

 

[EBF]

I think he's definitely a compelling buy low target. If you look at what happened last offseason, the unheralded sophomore backs ended up being much better values than the hyped guys. Charles, Rice, Mendenhall, and Felix were all available in the middle rounds of most dynasty startups whereas Johnson, Forte, and Slaton were all top 15 picks in most leagues. The unheralded backs weren't any less talented than Johnson/Slaton/Forte. They were just less expensive because the awareness of their talent was lower (because they hadn't played much).

The same thing is happening this season. The rookie backs who got a lot of playing time are becoming overvalued (Moreno, Wells, Greene). The guys who didn't play much or didn't finish strong are getting overlooked a little bit (Brown, McCoy). I think the latter group offers a more intriguing risk/reward proposition and I'll definitely be looking into possibly acquiring those two guys in some of my leagues if the price is decent.

I see a lot of parallels between McCoy and Ray Rice. Both were late second round picks. Both played reasonably well as rookies, but received limited hype because a gimmicky fullback stole some of their carries and a mediocre veteran threatened to do the same. This situation is a lot better than it looks on paper. Westbrook looks done and Weaver will never be more than a gimmick like McClain. McCoy is the obvious heir to the starting job here and it's unlikely that Philadelphia will be able to draft anyone better than him this year (there are maybe only 4-5 backs in this draft class who look like they could threaten him).

Is McCoy as good as Rice? I doubt it. Rice is pretty special. Great power, fluid hips, and lots of explosion. I don't think McCoy has the potential to be that good, but he's not exactly chopped liver. He has the dynamic lateral quickness that you want in a pro back. He's a good receiver. He looks like he has added enough weight to be an every down guy in Philly's system. Most importantly, he was pretty productive this season when given 10+ carries. Here's his game log when he got significant touches:

20 carries for 84 yards (4.2 YPC), 1 catch for 9 yards

14 carries for 37 yards (2.6 YPC), 5 catches for 30 yards

11 carries for 82 yards (7.5 YPC), 2 catches for 10 yards

13 carries for 54 yards (4.2 YPC), 5 catches for 61 yards

20 carries for 99 yards (5.0 YPC), no catches

17 carries for 76 yards (4.5 YPC), 4 catches for 25 yards

10 carries for 28 yards (2.8 YPC), 4 catches for 26 yards

Not bad. Five good games and only two duds. In the three games where he got 15+ carries, he averaged 4.5 YPC.

I don't see any reason why can't make a value jump next year like Charles and Rice did this season. It's not a guarantee, but he certainly has the potential and his current price probably isn't sky high in most leagues. As this thread demonstrates, a lot of people are placing too much emphasis on the short term situation (just as they did with Rice last year).

 

[GSWarriors]

I think he's definitely a compelling buy low target. If you look at what happened last offseason, the unheralded sophomore backs ended up being much better values than the hyped guys. Charles, Rice, Mendenhall, and Felix were all available in the middle rounds of most dynasty startups whereas Johnson, Forte, and Slaton were all top 15 picks in most leagues. The unheralded backs weren't any less talented than Johnson/Slaton/Forte. They were just less expensive because the awareness of their talent was lower (because they hadn't played much).

The same thing is happening this season. The rookie backs who got a lot of playing time are becoming overvalued (Moreno, Wells, Greene). The guys who didn't play much or didn't finish strong are getting overlooked a little bit (Brown, McCoy). I think the latter group offers a more intriguing risk/reward proposition and I'll definitely be looking into possibly acquiring those two guys in some of my leagues if the price is decent.

I see a lot of parallels between McCoy and Ray Rice. Both were late second round picks. Both played reasonably well as rookies, but received limited hype because a gimmicky fullback stole some of their carries and a mediocre veteran threatened to do the same. This situation is a lot better than it looks on paper. Westbrook looks done and Weaver will never be more than a gimmick like McClain. McCoy is the obvious heir to the starting job here and it's unlikely that Philadelphia will be able to draft anyone better than him this year (there are maybe only 4-5 backs in this draft class who look like they could threaten him).

Is McCoy as good as Rice? I doubt it. Rice is pretty special. Great power, fluid hips, and lots of explosion. I don't think McCoy has the potential to be that good, but he's not exactly chopped liver. He has the dynamic lateral quickness that you want in a pro back. He's a good receiver. He looks like he has added enough weight to be an every down guy in Philly's system. Most importantly, he was pretty productive this season when given 10+ carries. Here's his game log when he got significant touches:

20 carries for 84 yards (4.2 YPC), 1 catch for 9 yards

14 carries for 37 yards (2.6 YPC), 5 catches for 30 yards

11 carries for 82 yards (7.5 YPC), 2 catches for 10 yards

13 carries for 54 yards (4.2 YPC), 5 catches for 61 yards

20 carries for 99 yards (5.0 YPC), no catches

17 carries for 76 yards (4.5 YPC), 4 catches for 25 yards

10 carries for 28 yards (2.8 YPC), 4 catches for 26 yards

Not bad. Five good games and only two duds. In the three games where he got 15+ carries, he averaged 4.5 YPC.

I don't see any reason why can't make a value jump next year like Charles and Rice did this season. It's not a guarantee, but he certainly has the potential and his current price probably isn't sky high in most leagues. As this thread demonstrates, a lot of people are placing too much emphasis on the short term situation (just as they did with Rice last year).

i can see a reason why he wont make that jump, and that is McCoy's simply NOT THAT GOOD regardless of the numbers you posted. Watching him play is like night and day compared to Rice and Charles.

 

[EBF]

You might be right to a certain extent. I doubt his value will spike as much as theirs has.

At the same time, you need to remember that almost NO ONE on these boards considered Rice and Charles special talents after their rookie seasons. Where McCoy is right now isn't any different from where they were.

 

[fruity pebbles]

You might be right to a certain extent. I doubt his value will spike as much as theirs has. At the same time, you need to remember that almost NO ONE on these boards considered Rice and Charles special talents after their rookie seasons. Where McCoy is right now isn't any different from where they were.

Rice looked good, very good in his limited time. Charles didnt really get enough carries to make a judgment one way or another. I see your point but McCoy's had nearly 200 carries this year. Thats enough for me to forge an opinion and he just looks very mediocre out there.

 

[FUBAR]

I think he's definitely a compelling buy low target. -snip-

Traded him straight up for Jamaal Charles.

If that's buying low, I'm Brett Favre.ETA: 1.05 or later seems a fair price, that is about where he went last year and I'm not sure this class is that much better in the middle of the 1st.

 

[EBF]

You might be right to a certain extent. I doubt his value will spike as much as theirs has. At the same time, you need to remember that almost NO ONE on these boards considered Rice and Charles special talents after their rookie seasons. Where McCoy is right now isn't any different from where they were.

Rice looked good, very good in his limited time. Charles didnt really get enough carries to make a judgment one way or another. I see your point but McCoy's had nearly 200 carries this year. Thats enough for me to forge an opinion and he just looks very mediocre out there.

Ray Rice 2008 - 107 carries for 454 yards (4.2 YPC)LeSean McCoy 2009 - 155 carries for 637 yards (4.1 YPC)Not exactly a big difference on the stat sheet.As I said before, I doubt McCoy will jump up as much as Rice or Charles (he probably doesn't have the big play skills), but he's an obvious candidate for a value spike in the near future. High draft pick with good results in limited opportunities who has very little long term competition for touches. That's usually a recipe for a breakout.

 

[EBF]

I think he's definitely a compelling buy low target. -snip-

Traded him straight up for Jamaal Charles.

If that's buying low, I'm Brett Favre.

Obviously he's not a good buy low candidate if you have to give up someone who's ranked 10-20 spots higher by most. Fortunately, his average price won't be nearly that high.

 

[az_prof]

You might be right to a certain extent. I doubt his value will spike as much as theirs has. At the same time, you need to remember that almost NO ONE on these boards considered Rice and Charles special talents after their rookie seasons. Where McCoy is right now isn't any different from where they were.

Rice did look really good when he got chances last year and I for one still thought he was special. I think we saw enough of McCoy to see what he can do and it is good enough to contribute but not good enough to be a featured back, at least not for long.

 

[coolnerd]

I think he's definitely a compelling buy low target. -snip-

Traded him straight up for Jamaal Charles.

If that's buying low, I'm Brett Favre.

Obviously he's not a good buy low candidate if you have to give up someone who's ranked 10-20 spots higher by most. Fortunately, his average price won't be nearly that high.

Think the biggest difference is that people expect McCoy to be the lead back in Philly, assuming that Westbrook retires/is released. KC had LJ floating around and the Ravens had what looked like a three head monster with no clear pattern of usage. Think this will keep McCoy's value higher than either Rice or Charles were this past off-season.

 

[az_prof]

You might be right to a certain extent. I doubt his value will spike as much as theirs has. At the same time, you need to remember that almost NO ONE on these boards considered Rice and Charles special talents after their rookie seasons. Where McCoy is right now isn't any different from where they were.

Rice looked good, very good in his limited time. Charles didnt really get enough carries to make a judgment one way or another. I see your point but McCoy's had nearly 200 carries this year. Thats enough for me to forge an opinion and he just looks very mediocre out there.

Ray Rice 2008 - 107 carries for 454 yards (4.2 YPC)LeSean McCoy 2009 - 155 carries for 637 yards (4.1 YPC)Not exactly a big difference on the stat sheet.As I said before, I doubt McCoy will jump up as much as Rice or Charles (he probably doesn't have the big play skills), but he's an obvious candidate for a value spike in the near future. High draft pick with good results in limited opportunities who has very little long term competition for touches. That's usually a recipe for a breakout.

But you have to look at everything in context. If you look at Rice's rookie production in the context of 2008 Ravens you would have seen that he didn't get many opportunities but his ypc was the best on the team. The reason he didn't play more was he needed to improve ball security and blocking. McCoy on the other hand was outplayed by Leonard Weaver on the same team.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

You might be right to a certain extent. I doubt his value will spike as much as theirs has. At the same time, you need to remember that almost NO ONE on these boards considered Rice and Charles special talents after their rookie seasons. Where McCoy is right now isn't any different from where they were.

Rice looked good, very good in his limited time. Charles didnt really get enough carries to make a judgment one way or another. I see your point but McCoy's had nearly 200 carries this year. Thats enough for me to forge an opinion and he just looks very mediocre out there.

Ray Rice 2008 - 107 carries for 454 yards (4.2 YPC)LeSean McCoy 2009 - 155 carries for 637 yards (4.1 YPC)Not exactly a big difference on the stat sheet.As I said before, I doubt McCoy will jump up as much as Rice or Charles (he probably doesn't have the big play skills), but he's an obvious candidate for a value spike in the near future. High draft pick with good results in limited opportunities who has very little long term competition for touches. That's usually a recipe for a breakout.

I own McCoy and cannot decide what I want to do with him.On the one hand I am lukewarm on what I saw of him this year. He just looked "okay". On the other hand, I thought the same of Ray Rice last year. I am a pretty savvy dynasty owner and don't fall in liove with my players vs. other players; I keep a very open mind. Rice looked good at times, but very ordinary at times.Rice looks like a massively improved player this year. Week one I am at the bar watching as many players as I can, and Rice looks ELECTRIC. It was like watching a different player.McCoy may well be capable of putting up 1600+ yards from scrimmage in Philly. He should get his chance in 2010, or 2011 at the latest.So what to do with McCoy? I don't see Ray Rice in him (not that we should - McCoy is a totally different type of player), but I didn't see the 2009 Ray Rice in the 2008 Ray Rice. I would trade McCoy for a top 4 pick this year... but maybe not 1.05 or later.Those who saw Ray Rice last year and thought "stud", bully for you. I wanted to see "stud", but didn't. Nor did the Raven coaches for the first several weeks when McGahee was getting more touches than he deserved. But let us all keep in mind the many times we have been fooled by mirages; many of us have lots of hits, but we ALL have plenty of misses as well over the years. Don't look at your own past hits and forget your misses.That being said, I usually trust my eyes. Sell McCoy if you can get strong value, but don't sell low.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

But you have to look at everything in context. If you look at Rice's rookie production in the context of 2008 Ravens you would have seen that he didn't get many opportunities but his ypc was the best on the team. The reason he didn't play more was he needed to improve ball security and blocking. McCoy on the other hand was outplayed by Leonard Weaver on the same team.

That is debatable. I am not defending McCoy as anything special, and I actually like Weaver as a player, but Weaver had a 41 yard run that boosts his ypc by over 1/2 a yard in 2009. I know you cannot take away a player's big plays, but he IS still a fullback that received only 70 carries. That 41 yard run is his career high; he only has two other rushes over 20 yards in his career, I think, so he isn't a big play runner. He has some big plays receiving, but that is a whole different beast.Rice nudged McClain in ypc, but McClain had 125 more carries and MOST of the short yardage work. It wasn't OBVIOUS to most people that Rice was going to take the next step in year two.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Matt's comments are very insightful. McCoy's game needs to evolve like Charles has. The lateral agility and workhorse mentality is there. I am a little worried that Philly will never have a balanced offense and McNabb/Kolb won't come to rely on him as a receiver the way McNabb has relied on Westbrook. I would definitely consider selling an owner who is very optimistic about McCoy's future.

 

[BigJim®]

IMHO McCoy seems under valued if anything from a dynasty perspective. He's not worth a 1.4? Why, because the next shiny thing coming along has better upside?

McCoy got nearly 1000 yards in a limited role, and was obviously not relied upon much as a rookie with the Weaver mix. Maybe that was blitz pick up fears, or maybe it was simply a playoff caliber team reluctant to rely on a rookie. However, he'll have an entire offseason to learn from 2009, better familiarize himself with the playbook, and prove himself to the team. I might get ripped for comparing players, and to be clear I'm not saying Deangelo Williams is a good comparison in style. However, the rookie stats/use are practically identical (DW had 850 combined yards, 4.1 YPC, similar receiving), as are apparently the lingering doubts of whether this uber productive college player is capable of translating to a primary NFL RB based primarily on team-imposed rookie PT restraints. One significant downside I see for him is the Philly offense, and the fact it just abandons the run at times. That's a legit caution. But the bottom line is the team saw something to draft him in the 2nd, and the table seems to be set nicely for him to earn the primary role in 2010. I wouldn't trade McCoy if all I can get is a 1.4 rookie prospect.

 

[Jerry Lawler]

Because McCoy came into the league undersized and younger than most (he was 20 when the Eagles drafted him), I decided before the season not to overreact to difficulties with inside running during his rookie season. While it's disappointing that he lost touches to Leonard Weaver late in the season, I was impressed enough with his explosiveness and lateral agility to make him a buy/hold at his current value.

 

[pretender]

I don't know if I made a good trade or not - but I traded McCoy for 1.04. I know the owners in front of me will take the top 2 WR and top RB.

Time will tell when the draft comes and we see who falls where. There is a chance of getting 2nd best RB and the 2nd best RB's are becoming the best RB's the last couple of years.

 

[CaptainHook]

i didnt think he ever looked better than mediocre but hes got a very good opportunity and its important to consider that hes only 21 and was asked to do a whole lot more than what was originally expected on a team that was very thin at rb. its pretty likely that he was probably playing very fatigued for most of the year or possibly dinged. im not gonna let what a guy does in a few games of his rookie season sway my opinion greatly and considering how good philly has been at picking rbs, (imo both westbrook and buckhalter were elite talents that they scooped up in the later rounds) i am going to give them the benefit of the doubt on this guy. Im buying mccoy.

 

[shader]

You might be right to a certain extent. I doubt his value will spike as much as theirs has. At the same time, you need to remember that almost NO ONE on these boards considered Rice and Charles special talents after their rookie seasons. Where McCoy is right now isn't any different from where they were.

Rice looked good, very good in his limited time. Charles didnt really get enough carries to make a judgment one way or another. I see your point but McCoy's had nearly 200 carries this year. Thats enough for me to forge an opinion and he just looks very mediocre out there.

This is revisionist history.Before the season, Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles weren't thought of as good players. Heck in week 7 of this season, you could have gotten Jamaal Charles off of waivers in many leagues, I'm sure.

 

[r3t2]

You might be right to a certain extent. I doubt his value will spike as much as theirs has. At the same time, you need to remember that almost NO ONE on these boards considered Rice and Charles special talents after their rookie seasons. Where McCoy is right now isn't any different from where they were.

Rice looked good, very good in his limited time. Charles didnt really get enough carries to make a judgment one way or another. I see your point but McCoy's had nearly 200 carries this year. Thats enough for me to forge an opinion and he just looks very mediocre out there.

as a pitt fan i watched most of mccoy's games during his 2 years in school. while there he showed unbelievable athleticism, balance, lateral quicks, great hands and vision, and was surprisingly strong at the goalline, showing the same knack for working his way through defenders to score as LT does (he scored 38 TDs in those 2 seasons). and i don't remember anyone ever catching him from behind when he broke into the clear. stull was very bad at qb and mccoy was almost all they had on offense. he was 20 when he declared for the draft. he excelled last august by all the accounts i heard or read from training camp, and was surprisingly adept at picking up the blitz. when i saw him play this year he looked inconsistent, which is not surprising for a rookie at any position, let alone someone who declared after their sophomore year. but i also saw him make guys miss with some sick moves, the kind very few RBs in the league possess. for contrast, i saw a lot of the broncos this year and was not impressed with moreno at all. all i am looking for in a rookie is for him to flash at some point. some never show anything, and i would MUCH rather have a player with a pedigree drafted in the 2nd round with a long-term opportunity who showed something in his first season, over a rookie pick, unless it was a sure-fire ADP type. perhaps expectations are too high after 08's bonanza rookie crop of RBs. and perhaps people just react too quickly and dont allow players to develop. whatever mccoy becomes i have no doubt he will improve next year, and depending on the price i am looking to buy.

 

[stp-d]

I expect Westbrook to rework his contract and stay in Philly making it difficult of McCoy to take over. That being said, I imagine is value will be similar this sametime next yr.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

I expect Westbrook to rework his contract and stay in Philly making it difficult of McCoy to take over. That being said, I imagine is value will be similar this sametime next yr.

Not sure why you think this. Doesn't matter to me because I traded McCoy in the only league I had him. He doesn't pass the eyeball test with me. He simply doesn't look tough enough, decisive enough, and I seem to have overrated his vision. I know it's not wise to judge anyone this quickly, but something doesn't look right with McCoy.

 

[flat_earth]

I expect Westbrook to rework his contract and stay in Philly making it difficult of McCoy to take over. That being said, I imagine is value will be similar this sametime next yr.

Not sure why you think this. Doesn't matter to me because I traded McCoy in the only league I had him. He doesn't pass the eyeball test with me. He simply doesn't look tough enough, decisive enough, and I seem to have overrated his vision. I know it's not wise to judge anyone this quickly, but something doesn't look right with McCoy.

That is exactly, almost word-for-word, what caused me to stupidly jump ship on Rashard Mendenhall at the beginning of the year. He definitely did not pass the on-field eye test for me. Then he got benched. I watch him run now, and I can't believe how much he has improved. If he had flashed any of the decisiveness and explosion that he shows now early in his career I never would have traded him. McCoy has been inconsistent and definitely hit the rookie wall, but he flashed more than enough right away for me to see he's going to be a perfect fit for Philly's offense. There is no way I'd sell him for less than a top-5 pick. Probably more like top 3.

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

I expect Westbrook to rework his contract and stay in Philly making it difficult of McCoy to take over. That being said, I imagine is value will be similar this sametime next yr.

Not sure why you think this. Doesn't matter to me because I traded McCoy in the only league I had him. He doesn't pass the eyeball test with me. He simply doesn't look tough enough, decisive enough, and I seem to have overrated his vision. I know it's not wise to judge anyone this quickly, but something doesn't look right with McCoy.

That is exactly, almost word-for-word, what caused me to stupidly jump ship on Rashard Mendenhall at the beginning of the year. He definitely did not pass the on-field eye test for me. Then he got benched. I watch him run now, and I can't believe how much he has improved. If he had flashed any of the decisiveness and explosion that he shows now early in his career I never would have traded him. McCoy has been inconsistent and definitely hit the rookie wall, but he flashed more than enough right away for me to see he's going to be a perfect fit for Philly's offense. There is no way I'd sell him for less than a top-5 pick. Probably more like top 3.

I'm not so sure McCoy is going to be a Westbrook clone that so many think he is. As far as comparing Mendenhall with McCoy, they are two different types of runners. Also, Pittsburgh has a different view on running than Philly. I think there is a lot more risk associated with the Philly running game in general than Pittsburgh's running game, because Pittsburgh historically loves to run the ball first and the Eagles thinks pass first.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I think McCoy is a huge buy low candidate. Everyone is paying top dollar for Moreno, Wells, and Greene...this guy is worth just as much and is in a much better offense. He is 21 years old, and was able to play very effectively in one of the most complicated offenses in the league. Once the game slows down for him, he will start to look MUCH better.

If he takes the next step like I think he will, he will be a 1200 yard, 8-10 TD, and 50 catch guy in a great offense. If he doesn't, his value is going to be pretty similar to what it is now.

 

[CaptainHook]

i think mendenhall is a perfect example of mccoy's upside. Guys who looked like complete studs in college and then played mediocre at best in their rookie seasons when responsibilities were forced upon them too soon.

Moreno on the other hand is a guy who never looked especially good in college and has continued to look poor in the pros on an offense designed to make any RB look good. Green is a complete nobody that will be on waivers by the end of next season. Wells has superstud written all over him.

 

[JetMaxx]

i think mendenhall is a perfect example of mccoy's upside. Guys who looked like complete studs in college and then played mediocre at best in their rookie seasons when responsibilities were forced upon them too soon.

Moreno on the other hand is a guy who never looked especially good in college and has continued to look poor in the pros on an offense designed to make any RB look good. Green is a complete nobody that will be on waivers by the end of next season. Wells has superstud written all over him.

 

[renesauz]

You might be right to a certain extent. I doubt his value will spike as much as theirs has. At the same time, you need to remember that almost NO ONE on these boards considered Rice and Charles special talents after their rookie seasons. Where McCoy is right now isn't any different from where they were.

Rice looked good, very good in his limited time. Charles didnt really get enough carries to make a judgment one way or another. I see your point but McCoy's had nearly 200 carries this year. Thats enough for me to forge an opinion and he just looks very mediocre out there.

Ray Rice 2008 - 107 carries for 454 yards (4.2 YPC)LeSean McCoy 2009 - 155 carries for 637 yards (4.1 YPC)Not exactly a big difference on the stat sheet.As I said before, I doubt McCoy will jump up as much as Rice or Charles (he probably doesn't have the big play skills), but he's an obvious candidate for a value spike in the near future. High draft pick with good results in limited opportunities who has very little long term competition for touches. That's usually a recipe for a breakout.

But you have to look at everything in context. If you look at Rice's rookie production in the context of 2008 Ravens you would have seen that he didn't get many opportunities but his ypc was the best on the team. The reason he didn't play more was he needed to improve ball security and blocking. McCoy on the other hand was outplayed by Leonard Weaver on the same team.

I'm not sure that's a fair assessment. Weaver was a veteran with good blocking skills. Often when Weaver got the ball, it was a surprise. McCoy didn't see the field a lot in long yardage spots (esp. early in the season), and when he did see action his carries were more...expected.McCoy is a young back who showed some flashes. At worst, the jury is still out. I think he can be very successful in this system, with a lot of the same types of moves as Westbrook. What he does lack is long speed/explosiveness. He has a low end fantasy RB1 upside, but a long term high end RB2 is most likely. A solid piece, but hardly irreplaceable.

 

[chook]

I expect Westbrook to rework his contract and stay in Philly making it difficult of McCoy to take over. That being said, I imagine is value will be similar this sametime next yr.

Not sure why you think this. Doesn't matter to me because I traded McCoy in the only league I had him. He doesn't pass the eyeball test with me. He simply doesn't look tough enough, decisive enough, and I seem to have overrated his vision. I know it's not wise to judge anyone this quickly, but something doesn't look right with McCoy.

That is exactly, almost word-for-word, what caused me to stupidly jump ship on Rashard Mendenhall at the beginning of the year.

The first thing I thought of when I read the above post too. While I feel Mendenhall probably has a higher ceiling than McCoy, I also feel those selling the young Philly RB right now are making a mistake.

 

[SSOG]

i think mendenhall is a perfect example of mccoy's upside.

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Mendenhall looks, to me, like the next Kevin Smith/Marshawn Lynch. An above-average talent who'll put up borderline RB1 numbers for as long as he has the job, but who'll never really be anything special.

 

[chook]

i think mendenhall is a perfect example of mccoy's upside.

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Mendenhall looks, to me, like the next Kevin Smith/Marshawn Lynch. An above-average talent who'll put up borderline RB1 numbers for as long as he has the job, but who'll never really be anything special.

If that's the case wouldn't it still be better to hold for the time being until he shows a little more, before selling higher?

 

[Hendo]

I think McCoy is a huge buy low candidate. Everyone is paying top dollar for Moreno, Wells, and Greene...this guy is worth just as much and is in a much better offense. He is 21 years old, and was able to play very effectively in one of the most complicated offenses in the league. Once the game slows down for him, he will start to look MUCH better. If he takes the next step like I think he will, he will be a 1200 yard, 8-10 TD, and 50 catch guy in a great offense. If he doesn't, his value is going to be pretty similar to what it is now.

i see people paying top dollar for Beanie because its warranted. He has stud written all over him and looked like the most explosive runner out of this draft class. at 22yrs old hes right there with McCoy but has better tools to succeed imo. I dont think Shonn Greene will be a castaway either. He is a very good power back on a stable running team. Nothing against McCoy but id rather own Greene then McCoy.

 

[SSOG]

i think mendenhall is a perfect example of mccoy's upside.

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Mendenhall looks, to me, like the next Kevin Smith/Marshawn Lynch. An above-average talent who'll put up borderline RB1 numbers for as long as he has the job, but who'll never really be anything special.

If that's the case wouldn't it still be better to hold for the time being until he shows a little more, before selling higher?

Probably, yeah. I personally don't own McCoy because I didn't like him as a prospect coming into the NFL. If I did own him, I'd be looking to sell him... but that's because I never liked him in the first place. Assuming his owner DID like him in the first place, then now is not the time to sell. Don't bail on guys you believed in after just one season, (and, as a corollary, don't draft guys you don't believe in in the first place).

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

i think mendenhall is a perfect example of mccoy's upside. Guys who looked like complete studs in college and then played mediocre at best in their rookie seasons when responsibilities were forced upon them too soon.Moreno on the other hand is a guy who never looked especially good in college and has continued to look poor in the pros on an offense designed to make any RB look good. Green is a complete nobody that will be on waivers by the end of next season. Wells has superstud written all over him.

Get it right, it's "Greene". How could you possiblity make the comment that he will be on waivers? Let's just say I'll give you enough credit and say that you didn't really mean it. If you did mean it, well....., there goes all credibility.

 

[Crippler]

i think mendenhall is a perfect example of mccoy's upside. Guys who looked like complete studs in college and then played mediocre at best in their rookie seasons when responsibilities were forced upon them too soon.Moreno on the other hand is a guy who never looked especially good in college and has continued to look poor in the pros on an offense designed to make any RB look good. Green is a complete nobody that will be on waivers by the end of next season. Wells has superstud written all over him.

I agree with these observations

 

[Moonlight_Graham]

i think mendenhall is a perfect example of mccoy's upside. Guys who looked like complete studs in college and then played mediocre at best in their rookie seasons when responsibilities were forced upon them too soon.Moreno on the other hand is a guy who never looked especially good in college and has continued to look poor in the pros on an offense designed to make any RB look good. Green is a complete nobody that will be on waivers by the end of next season. Wells has superstud written all over him.

I agree with these observations

So you also believe Greene will be on most waivers by the end of next season?

 

[pretender]

I think McCoy is a huge buy low candidate. Everyone is paying top dollar for Moreno, Wells, and Greene...this guy is worth just as much and is in a much better offense. He is 21 years old, and was able to play very effectively in one of the most complicated offenses in the league. Once the game slows down for him, he will start to look MUCH better. If he takes the next step like I think he will, he will be a 1200 yard, 8-10 TD, and 50 catch guy in a great offense. If he doesn't, his value is going to be pretty similar to what it is now.

I'm not so sure he is a "buy low" candidate anymore - I just traded him for 1.04. That isn't low to me and I wouldn't have traded him for anything less. just my 2 cents

 

[renesauz]

i think mendenhall is a perfect example of mccoy's upside.

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Mendenhall looks, to me, like the next Kevin Smith/Marshawn Lynch. An above-average talent who'll put up borderline RB1 numbers for as long as he has the job, but who'll never really be anything special.

Aren't borderline RB1's worth a top 3 fantasy pick?????!!!!

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

from watching him play i don't think he's that good. I'd be looking to sell him this offseason

That is my impression as well. He seems to be a VERY poor mans Reggie Bush. A lot of juke and jive but not a lot of substance. He has decent vision but doesn't run with much power. He has talent but doesn't seem to have that extra little burst and finish that the good ones show right away. That said, he could be one of those "opportunity" RB and in Philly that could be significant. I'm holding unless one of the Eagles homers on my league gets overly excited about him.

Pretty good (and accurate) initial assessment.The problem McCoy has right now is that he has too many moves. He's trying to fake everyone out to set up a big run, but it never materializes. The issues are that on the top level of the NFL, everyone is good. In college, if you made the best LB miss, you could break a big run. That takes time for a rookie to learn.He's a quick runner and good in open spaces, but he's trying to get to that space too quickly. He doesn't make moves to set up the hole nor does he quickly get to and through the hole - yet. I think he may in the future, but right now he looks like he wants to get to the corner and run as fast as he can. That's why he was used in so many screen plays while Weaver ran inside when Westbrook was out.Another issue is ball security - he doesn't have it right now. The ball is way too far away from his body and begging to be ripped out of his hands. All of this can be coached out and he could turn into a very good RB, but odds are his upside is a poor man's Westbrook with 50-60 receptions, 150-200 carries and a combined 1,200-1,300 yards. I don't see him as a bell cow RB, but then again there aren't many in today's NFL. Look for him to split time with someone in the Eagles' backfield for the balance of McCoy's career.