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LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: LeSean McCoy Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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Shady is #2 on my list overall just behind Foster.

I fully expect his TD totals of 20 to drop down to about 15/16, but I think his receptions will go up. I think I read somewhere that he will be used more in the passing game to help keep him fresh. So I expect his Ru Yrds to go down but his Re Yards to increase.

My guess is 1240/11 Rushing 690/63/4

Great in standard and awesome in PPR.

With a happy and healthy DJax and Maclin the holes will be there for him

 
The interesting thing about McCoy is that NO ONE wanted this guy at some point. He was the equivalent of Donald Brown before he broke out. I think everything went 100% right for McCoy last year and I view him as a late 1st / early 2nd guy.

If I had the chance to draft him in the Top 5, I would (assuming Rodgers was off the board).

This is the kind of guy I would draft with direct intentions of trading away to an owner who assumes he's going to repeat last year's production. I'd go for a King's Ransom and if I didn't get it, I'd still be sitting on a quailty RB1.

1,200 Yards / 9 TD

450 Receiving Yards / 2 TD

Peters was an elite LT, Vick will score more than one rushing TD this year, and the Eagles have quite the RB depth. With the weapons the Eagles have on offense, they do not need to give him the ball 300+ times but they probably will.

 
The interesting thing about McCoy is that NO ONE wanted this guy at some point. He was the equivalent of Donald Brown before he broke out. I think everything went 100% right for McCoy last year and I view him as a late 1st / early 2nd guy.
Maybe I'm not remembering correctly, but he was drafted relatively early (3rd or 4th) two years ago, and as a first rounder last year. He broke out in his second year in the league...so I'm not sure the Donald Brown thing is accurate.I think his touchdowns will drop, but he should still be a solid top 3-4 RB.1,200 rushing55/600 receiving13 touchdowns
 
Early I think this is the top RB on the board. I think Houston is a committee and needs to be. I think Phili should bounce back this year and that means they should use McCoy alot.

Still early to make yardage predictions, but easily top 2.

 
Mccoy's first year year he was behind Westbrook and he still managed 945 total yards. His second year he broke out with 1000 yards rushing, and last year he blew up. Brown sucked his first year and he sucked his second year (didn't average even average 4.0 yards a carry either year). Last year towards the end of the year he broke out some, but was that because people were taking the Colts so lightly, or did he figure it out. Not to mention Brown was a late first round pick, Mccoy was a mid to late second rounder.

 
'solorca said:
regression to the mean
What does that even mean? He was a backup in his rookie year, and has been the workhorse for two years. One very good season and one elite season. What is his "mean"? No offense, but your comment strikes me as someone spouting off something they have heard, without actually understanding the concept of the theory.
For Mccoy it means a top 5 back. So 1200 + rushing yards 300+ receiving yards and 10 + total tds. Or in words of Kool-Aid the biggest bust of the first round. *sarcasm off*
 
'solorca said:
regression to the mean
What does that even mean? He was a backup in his rookie year, and has been the workhorse for two years. One very good season and one elite season. What is his "mean"? No offense, but your comment strikes me as someone spouting off something they have heard, without actually understanding the concept of the theory.
For Mccoy it means a top 5 back. So 1200 + rushing yards 300+ receiving yards and 10 + total tds. Or in words of Kool-Aid the biggest bust of the first round. *sarcasm off*
it's a joke due to the "regression to the mean" thread going on
 
I'd take him over Rice at this point. He did very well in a year in which things all fell the wrong way for the Eagles as a team. Most of us were afraid he'd suffer the Jonathan Stewart fate of having all this goal line TDs vultured by his QB, but Vick went from 9 rushing TDs to 1 last year. Given his proclamation that he'll be playing it safe this year so he can stay healthy for the entire season, I think McCoy owners are safe unless Reid suddenly decides someone else is the goal line back.

I expect the Philly offense to be better this year with a healthy Maclin and a happy DeSean, so it is possible that he scores more TDs than before, but you don't need that to make him a great #2 overall pick. If the offense stays opened up then he'll get plenty of yards making him a safe weekly play and an end of year top 5 RB even if he only gets 10 TDs instead of 20. Due to the anticipated WR health, I think we see a few less rec for McCoy (48 in 15g last year), but he remains a solid threat in that aspect of the game so it wouldn't surprise me if I was wrong there.

16 carries/gm x 16g x 5.0 ypc = 1280 yds 12 TD, 45 rec x 7 ypr = 315 yds 2 TD

 
Right now I got McCoy down for 294/1310/12 rushing and 51/395/3 receiving.

He's certainly a good bet for top5 barring injury, so I won't focus on what's to like about him, but on what may be cause for concern.

1) The TD total last year probably won't be reproduced.

2) They lost Jason Peters, one of the best tackles in the game.

3) The ypc is a concern to me. Last year he averaged 4.8 ypc (right around he career average) but that was with 5.11% of his carries going for 20 or more yards. That's 6th best among players who had at least 100 carries last year, yet he finished 18th in ypc. The reason: 25.55% of his carries went for a loss or no gain, that ranks 4th worst among players with 100 carries.

4) He had 7 games last year where he had 20 or less total touches. And another 2 where he had 21. Compare that to someone like A.Foster where he only had less than 20 CARRIES 6 times.

Of course this is probably nitpicking and can't blame anyone for taking him top 3 overall. I have him right behind Rice and Foster in terms of the first round picks, although right now I have him finishing RB6 in PPR and RB5 in non-PPR, but that'll surely change as we find out more about how workloads will be split this year.

 
I think Houston is a committee and needs to be.
So, HOU "needs" to be a committee because....?Proof? Number? Logic? What?Tate avg'd 9 carries a game last year, in games which Foster started. That in itself is a midleading stat, because often a good # of his carries came in the 4th quarter, with the game wrapped up. I know this is a McCoy thread, but I figured this malarkey would end after last seasons "Tate will take over" thread failed like Lohan at a drug test.With the past 2 seasons' performance, monster contract and PROVEN ability to put the ball in the endzone (which tate has shown he has trouble doing), there is a ball hair's chance in hell this is a committee.
 
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I think Houston is a committee and needs to be.
So, HOU "needs" to be a committee because....?Proof? Number? Logic? What?Tate avg'd 9 carries a game last year, in games which Foster started. That in itself is a midleading stat, because often a good # of his carries came in the 4th quarter, with the game wrapped up. I know this is a McCoy thread, but I figured this malarkey would end after last seasons "Tate will take over" thread failed like Lohan at a drug test.With the past 2 seasons' performance, monster contract and PROVEN ability to put the ball in the endzone (which tate has shown he has trouble doing), there is a ball hair's chance in hell this is a committee.
I think Rizz has his forum alerts set for "Houston" and "Committee"
 
I think Houston is a committee and needs to be.
So, HOU "needs" to be a committee because....?Proof? Number? Logic? What?Tate avg'd 9 carries a game last year, in games which Foster started. That in itself is a midleading stat, because often a good # of his carries came in the 4th quarter, with the game wrapped up. I know this is a McCoy thread, but I figured this malarkey would end after last seasons "Tate will take over" thread failed like Lohan at a drug test.With the past 2 seasons' performance, monster contract and PROVEN ability to put the ball in the endzone (which tate has shown he has trouble doing), there is a ball hair's chance in hell this is a committee.
:goodposting:
 
Paid a boat load in the off season to acquire McCoy in the off season for my SC dynasty team, and I can't help but feel incredibly worried about his production this season.

Is anyone else worried that Mike Vick is killing Shady's value with all of his turnovers? If they can't keep the ball, how is McCoy supposed to do anything? Also Vick seems to be throwing the ball at an alarming rate this season, and not very well for that matter.

 
I took him as the 3rd RB off the boards in our draft and so far he hasn't really lived up to the hype yet. Plenty of other RB's has outscored him so far and my team is falling behind quickly.

 
Paid a boat load in the off season to acquire McCoy in the off season for my SC dynasty team, and I can't help but feel incredibly worried about his production this season. Is anyone else worried that Mike Vick is killing Shady's value with all of his turnovers? If they can't keep the ball, how is McCoy supposed to do anything? Also Vick seems to be throwing the ball at an alarming rate this season, and not very well for that matter.
Andy Reid is the one hurting Vick's value.
 
McCoy's knee swelling.No big deal? He looked great in the second half, but I ask cause Brown is sitting on the FA wire in a lot of leagues. I recall LeSean having some occasional knee pain last year, but never any mention of swelling.

"Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy injured his knee in Sunday night's victory over the New York Giants, but head coach Andy Reid said that it is nothing more than a little tweak, according to NFL reporter Adam Caplan. Reid acknowledged that McCoy's knee is swelling up, but then reiterated that he is fine.McCoy rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries Sunday night and added 17 yards on three receptions as well. McCoy has 384 yards and one touchdown on 81 rushing attempts through four games this season."
 
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He looks good, but he doesn't get the ball enough

Vick's multiple fumbles should correct this in the future. should....

 

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