Let’s Talk About Strategy (1 Viewer)

[taylormeetstheismann]

In another post, a comment was made by BassNBrew that some of the theories we were discussing were cutting edge. I’ve been thinking about his comment since yesterday as I went about my holiday preparations. The question that keeps coming to my mind is as follows.

What exactly would constitute cutting edge thinking in fantasy football today?

Let’s start with a little background material. I’ve been enjoying fantasy football for about ten years. During the first three or four years I knew very little about how to win. I spent quite a bit of time trying to improve my game but I ended up playing at about a .500 clip during this time. The first really useful idea I encountered for improving my winning percentage was Joe Bryant’s Value Based Drafting theory as provided by cheatsheets.net. I started using it in 2000 and I found that applying VBD to my player drafting was a significant game changer. I went from being an average owner to being a contender overnight. In fact, I’ve never missed the playoffs in any league since I started selecting players using VBD on draft day. The second really useful idea I ran across was David Dobbs’ The Perfect Draft. I first used it in 2002 and by applying The Perfect Draft strategy to my player selection process on draft day I went from perennial contender to dominant force. The reason I am sharing my background is that I figure a number other message board regulars have similar experiences. Both VBD and The Perfect Draft were cutting edge ideas when they were first presented to us. (I’ve come to believe that the combination of these two ideas is the essential building blocks for optimal draft strategy.)

Over the past few years, I’ve started to notice that the other owners in my leagues are getting more sophisticated in playing fantasy football. This isn’t to say that many of them were not competitive before as collectively they were generally good at drafting players into competitive teams and working the wavier wire to their advantage during the season. But I have definitely seen them progress in many ways including the use of player projections based on league scoring, loading up on extra running backs early in the draft, sluffing quarterbacks off to the middle rounds and so forth. The reason for their increased sophistication is the sheer volume of new information that is available to all in fantasy football magazines and websites. Although the quality of information varies greatly, owners are progressively gathering good ideas and applying them with more skill. Most owners are improving their game little by little, year after year as they gain experience and insight into fantasy football. My expectation is that sooner or later the vast majority owners in most leagues will be applying the underlying concepts behind VBD, The Perfect Draft and other solid methodologies to significantly raise the bar on what it takes to win consistently. Sadly enough, some of them won’t actually fully understand why the concepts work as they are simply relying on the expert advice available to them and applying it to their benefit. (In example, many people successfully use a computer on a daily basis to perform the work at their job yet have no idea how a computer really works.)

This is why I am interested in better understanding what is truly cutting edge in fantasy football thinking. I’m reasonably confident that I can continue to maintain my competitive edge by out maneuvering the competition. However, the manner in which I outperform the competition will need to advance and evolve as more and more owners elevate their game with the newfound knowledge of tried and true strategies provided by numerous mainstream sources of fantasy football information.

I believe there are just four basic areas for decision making in fantasy football. Everything I’ve learned about the playing the game can be categorized in one of these areas. Each of these areas is quite distinct from the other in terms of dynamics yet they do flow together as a whole.

1. Player Evaluation - What future statisical performance can be expected from a player?

2. Draft Strategy - What players should be acquired?

3. Roster Management - Which players should be added or dropped?

4. Lineup Selection - Which players should be started?

I have found that taking the football information available to me in a variety of formats and from a variety of sources and processing it with the knowledge and wisdom I’ve gained in each these categories has improved my ability to make better decisions in the management of my teams. Superior decision making leads to superior results in terms of wins and championship titles. Currently, there is a tremendous amount of time and effort put into improving the collective knowledge about Player Evaluation and Draft Strategy. Lineup Selection and Roster Management (but to a much lessor extent) are advancing but their development is a much slower rate of progress. Also, I believe there are many important yet more or less unexploited aspects in the areas Lineup Selection and Roster Management. (Unfortunately, the evolution, development and codification of fantasy football intelligence in each of these four areas is far too vast of a topic for the scope of this post.)

So let’s go back to the original question I’ve been pondering all day. What would constitute cutting edge thinking in fantasy football today? I’ll offer a number of ideas in no particular order that are of interest to me.

1. Identifying and understanding player performance correlations between you and your opponent.

2. Hedging with players in your starting lineup by playing a QB over an opponent’s WR or TE to receive the benefits of point cancellation.

3. Polarizing scoring outcomes by starting an opposing a DT against an opponent’s QB or RB.

4. Doubling down by starting a QB to WR or TE hook up to score points in greater amounts off of single outcomes.

5. Playing combos to diversify point production by starting a QB and RB or RB and WR from the same team. (Add QB and PK from the same team per BassNBrew)

6. Increasing the diversification of point production by starting players from different teams or in different games.

7. Selecting free agents of potential value to anticipated playoff opponents like key back up QBs or RBs.

8. Draining free agents options of current playoff opponents to take advantage of possible injuries or DT match ups.

9. Confusing other owners into bidding too much for their picks or too little for your picks at an auction.

10. Potential analysis for identifying future stars at RB and WR in advance of others.

11. Assessing playoff roster planning opportunities based schedule for weeks 14-17 that allow you to strengthen your position in advance. (Amended based on comments below by Morton Muffley.)

12. Rotating techniques to better manage bye week backups at the TE, PK and DT positions.

This is just a short list that is very much a rough draft as I had limited time to develop and define it this morning. I don’t claim to have all the answers but I do know that elite owners can improve their odds of winning by better understanding their options in these areas. Hedging is one of the best examples per several message board threads on the topic from this season including this one on the subject. The key objective in better understanding these specific ideas is to find a way to improve the odds of winning head to head match ups. The pick up in odds may be small in some cases but I’ll take whatever I can get any time I can get it. So, if you’ve made it this far, then I’m hopeful you will put a little thought into the key question I’m poising if it is of interest to you. Maybe a few people will offer up their ideas or theories for consideration in the dialogue.

What specific ideas or theories would you consider to be cutting edge thinking in fantasy football today?

The outcome of this thread is to identify good topics. I'll add the ones I like the best below.

UPDATES BELOW

13. Assessing the implications of injuries to the future performance of players. - Da Good Da Bad an Da Ugly

14. Using the vegas line to predict the scoring potential of DT, PK and marginal position players. - BassNBrew

15. Using a given team's offense to predict the scoring potential of the same team's defense. - BassNBrew

16. Taking advantage of DT free agent availability and playing match ups week to week rather than sticking with one or two DTs. - taylormeetstheismann

17. Understanding OLs and their impact on back field options. - Spartans Rule

18. Applying Wallstreet Risk Management practices to projecting performance and drafting players. - LHUCKS

19. Assessing positional demand on the fly during the draft instead of just the supply. - GregR.

20. Improve the predictive modelling for DTs and Kickers. - bueno

21. Acquiring players with the same bye week and accepting a loss in favor of greater strength during the other bye weeks. - BigActionMike/No Swammi

22. Developing an integrated, predictive model that incorporates all the important factors into player projections. - suspected

23. Improving the way we us ADP for drafting. - crush304

24. Applying multiple regression analysis to player projections. - Ridgelake

25. Tracking and applying the drafting tendencies of each owner. - WhoDat

26. Draft QBBC options on the same teams as divisional opponents top WRs and TE. - taylormeetstheismann

If you've made a unique suggestion that you believe for which I haven't accounted, then simply send me a message board e-mail to remedy.

 

[Bigtime]

Someone suggested not picking up Joey Galloway under any circumstances. Does that qualify as cutting edge?

 

[Da Good Da Bad an Da Ugly]

I read an interesting analysis of players’ injuries and post injury performance a few years back (still digging around to find it). The writers did an excellent mathematical analysis of players who were listed as probable/doubtful/questionable and the subsequent drop off in their fantasy production based on their prior classification and frequency of that classification. That said, I would like to see more articles on the subject and more in depth injury specific analysis and its correlation to fantasy production and prediction of games missed in the future. Those reading this now all know that it’s prudent to avoid injury prone players or to draft their backups, but it would be far more useful to have access to information detailing the exact extent of the injury and be able to plug it in to a formula that would give you an estimate of the players future production as well as the odds of that specific player being injured again and missing playing time. I don’t know if this is one of the “bleeding edge” ideas your looking for, or a recycled one( I haven’t been in the game as long as you have), but I see much potential for further study and examination of this topic.

 

[Jackal King]

Somehow, I think it's fitting that a collection of organized thoughts of this quality is presented on Christmas morning. It's an example of just how serious many of us take this game, and how far we go to find that little edge.TMTH - very good post, and rings true for my experience and observations as well. I too believe that the mainstream is catching up to the dynamics of VBD and other draft focused techniques. The playing field is much more level on draft day, than in years past.I think the next big advantage will have less to do with drafting, and will move into the 'in season' aspects of FFL strategy. I plan on spending the offseason trying to focus on two things you hint at in your list.1 - Try to improve my odds of being able to recognize a non-starting RB that will be productive as a starter, and the percentage of my roster that should be dedicated to those flyers. Carolina, Kansas City, Minnesota, and Denver have all gone to their 3rd string RB with great success. Undrafted players are playing key roles in FFL championships. Until this year...I've really skimmed the surface in evaluating non-starters and their situations, and certainly never down to the RB3. But, I now think there should be room on some rosters for some deeper RB potential.2 - The QB/WR combo. Up until this year, this was a situation that I'd never force, if not try to outright avoid. But, I think with all of the attention being given to player evaluation and 'strength of schedule', I think the risk factor with having a QB/WR hookup is not as concerning as it once was. To me, if you can more often than not pick out a strong QB game, having his WR's is more of a weapon than a risk. I plan on using at least one league next year to test what I call the trifecta line up. I want to be in a position to field a QB/WR/WR same team combo when the QB has an 'above the baseline' start for points allowed to QB's.Looking forward to everyones contribution to the collective wisdom of the shark pool.

 

[-OZ-]

2 - The QB/WR combo. Up until this year, this was a situation that I'd never force, if not try to outright avoid. But, I think with all of the attention being given to player evaluation and 'strength of schedule', I think the risk factor with having a QB/WR hookup is not as concerning as it once was. To me, if you can more often than not pick out a strong QB game, having his WR's is more of a weapon than a risk. I plan on using at least one league next year to test what I call the trifecta line up. I want to be in a position to field a QB/WR/WR same team combo when the QB has an 'above the baseline' start for points allowed to QB's.

This works, sometimes, but it might have cost me a championship this year.In one league, I have Peyton Manning, Edge, Marvin and Wayne. The "perfect quartet" right? Worked most weeks, and I have the highest score, best all-play record, etc.But as you can probably guess, last week killed the team.I don't know that you can evaluate opposing defenses in the playoffs during the draft with any accuracy, but I probably should have seen Balitmore in week 15 and expected a less than stellar performance. Of course, I couldn't bench any of these...

 

[faulkfan]

It may not be cutting edge, but research of league rules has definitely been a big help to me lately.I started in fantasy football 12 years ago and there was one paragraph of league rules that we had. It has since grown to several pages due to changing needs and attitudes. I have always been a bit of a rule pusher, and as such have worked on the fringes in the past. However, this year I looked a little closer at our league rules concerning roster moves after Thanksgiving. We are allowed to make trades and IR moves, but not add/drop. Looking closer I found that there was no provision prohibiting trading for a player on IR and then using the move. I did it and now have Larrry Johnson starting at one RB spot this week.The point isn't the move itself, but rather the fact that it behooves us to know the boundaries we are working in. Yahoo can make us feel that we know the whole story with its standard setups, but tere are commissioners out ther who tweak the rules a little and it is in our best interest to know it. A little research can go a long way.In my case this isn't a Yahoo league and it has been around for 14 years, but that doesn't mean I know everything I need to know about my options. Who to start is important, but knowing how to get some supposedly untouchable players onto my squad will hopefully pay dividends today.The ironic part is that 4 hours after I made the trade and IR move, my opponent had a player on IR that he tried to use to pick up Johnson. Not only do I get to start him, but I also avoided playing against him. A little luck never hurts anyone.

 

[Jackal King]

2 - The QB/WR combo. Up until this year, this was a situation that I'd never force, if not try to outright avoid. But, I think with all of the attention being given to player evaluation and 'strength of schedule', I think the risk factor with having a QB/WR hookup is not as concerning as it once was. To me, if you can more often than not pick out a strong QB game, having his WR's is more of a weapon than a risk. I plan on using at least one league next year to test what I call the trifecta line up. I want to be in a position to field a QB/WR/WR same team combo when the QB has an 'above the baseline' start for points allowed to QB's.

This works, sometimes, but it might have cost me a championship this year.In one league, I have Peyton Manning, Edge, Marvin and Wayne. The "perfect quartet" right? Worked most weeks, and I have the highest score, best all-play record, etc.But as you can probably guess, last week killed the team.I don't know that you can evaluate opposing defenses in the playoffs during the draft with any accuracy, but I probably should have seen Balitmore in week 15 and expected a less than stellar performance. Of course, I couldn't bench any of these...

Jayhawk, It's certainly a double edged sword. The absolute key to a combo, and even more a trifecta, is being right on the QB matchup...and....having a viable alternative plan if the matchups dictate a need to sub.One other point about the trifecta lineup, and I know Marc Levin has mentioned this too....it's much less risky in a start three WR lineup. If your trifecta is a 1A and 1B type receiver (and it needs to be to make sense) such as your Harrison/Wayne combo....then as long as one of them put up top 36 type numbers, you're generally in pretty good shape.One last thing is the wisdon of having the same RB as your trifecta (now a quartet), I think is counter intuitive. You're playing the trifecta because you think it gives you the hammer in a passing attack. I would think that when you are playing your trifecta, you'd want to look at other RB options. I certainly have an opportunity to sour on this perspective later tonight. Volek, Mason and Bennett are in my lineup for championship weekend. I wish they had a better matchup than Denver, but...I'm going to roll the dice.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I would like to see more articles on the subject and more in depth injury specific analysis and its correlation to fantasy production and prediction of games missed in the future.

This is a interesting topic. Successfully handling injuries can be an important aspect of managing a team.Long-term injuries affect Roster Management decisions. On the downside, there are limits to the number of players a team can carry and no one wants to keep dead weight. In example, there was some talk this year among owners about whether or not it was a good idea to hold onto Todd Heap. On the upside, there are also huge opportunities presented by injuries. The injury-related successes of QBs and RBs like Collins, Volek, Blaylock, L. Johnson, Goings, Droughns, Bell, McGahee, Bettis, C. Taylor and M. Moore come to mind.Short-term injuries affect Lineup Selection decisions. No one wants to get a zero out of a player and coaches are increasingly less forthcoming about a player's real status. In example, there are many of us struggling to figure out how Fred Taylor's sprained MCL will affect his ability to start and or perform.I've added it to my list.

 

[BassNBrew]

Looks like TMT has taken a big bite into some advanced FF discussion and has plenty to chew on. I have a couple topics I'd like to add for consideration.The first is using Vegas lines as a reference point for evaluating defenses and identifying marginal starters. As one who likes to wager, I've come to appreciate how accurate these lines are, especially the over/under target. By using the over/under number and the spread, you have a projected score for the game. In leagues that award defenses points for PA, it should be pretty easy to identify which one mathmatically is a better start. This can also be used to give you a bogey for an opponent who's roster is heavily loaded with a single teams players.I would like to further explore the correlation between kicker and QB scores, especially in leagues that put a premium on kicker scoring. It seems like a strong team would want their QB's kicker on their fantasy team to smooth out the ups and downs of their QB's production.Lastly, a lot of work has been put into using strength of defense when identifying matchups to exploit. I see some value in taking this one degree further. Every NFL team is trying to win with the exception of Clevland. A factor as important as the NFL opponent's defense is the opponent's offense. These games generally stay close and scoring usually yields more scoring. Any game KC and Minny play in are prime examples. When you have an offensively inept team, there's not going to be as much pressure for the opponent's to open up the play book and post a big score. Is Washington's defense really that improved from last year or has their offense been so weak that opponent's have used a more conservative game plan. Did Carolina's defense really digress that much from last year or the losses on the o-line in the off season force the Panther's to change from a rushing team to a passing team hence putting more pressure on the defense? One thing you can usually count on in the NFL is teams playing to the level of their competition.Like TMT said, the internet and the explosion of the FF industry has definately level the playing field. Much like poker, we probably need to start looking at advance strategies to keep the odds of winning on a weekly basis tilted in our favor.

 

[BassNBrew]

TMT...You'll probably want to bump this in February or March to spark a real discussion. Right now people are so engrossed in the FF playoffs and the NFL playoffs that it will be hard to get much discussion going. The real diehards will still be around here plotting strategies for 2005.

 

[Sam Quentin]

http://www.footballguys.com/bianchi_dynamicvbd.cfm

this incorporates a lot of the ideas listed here.

I generally take this strategy and apply it to a number of mock drafts (Using Bruce's tool) to get an idea of what my strategy is going in (ie what positons I will fill first based on expected or unexpected player availibility).

 

[Wilbur Wood]

The "highly leveraged" strategy (all eggs in one basket) theory discussed earlier -- start from the same team -- QB, WR1, WR2, RB1 I would think would only click on 3 out of 4 cylinders (assuming that 1 of the 2 WR's gets top 12 production) with the extreme upper echelon offenses such as the Colts with James. Even with Manning lighting up the scoreboard like no other before him, Edge is still usually good for 120 total yards and 0.7 TD's (~ 16 points). However on most other teams the RB will have much lower production levels in weeks in which the QB "goes off". Also, om most other offenses (other than Indy) when the QB "goes off" (from a FF standpoint) it usually coincides with the team falling behind and thus abondoning the run for the pass.

 

[Da Good Da Bad an Da Ugly]

shameless bump

 

[Sam Quentin]

As far as weekly lineups go, usually a number of of postions are "locked" with your "studs." I usually find that, at most I have one or two decisions to make, and if it's close, the opponent's lineup can factor in.

 

[radballs.]

That's a whole lot to chew on. I'll start with "roster selection". Employing different theories such as "doubling down" or "roster diversification" will depend a lot on the type of league that it is. In a total points league, I'm much more likely to "double down" because I'm looking to maximize total points. In a head to head league, I'll be more likely to diversify in order to get at least a minimum baseline of points that will allow me to win my matchup. For example, I'd be much more likely to start a QB-WR same team combo in a total points league, but I'd lean more toward a QB-RB-K same team combo in a head to head league.

 

[Morton Muffley]

I think you should add the importance of playoff schedule. Every year I squeak into the playoffs and then dominate once I'm there becuase my roster is stocked with players facing sweet match-ups. In a start 2 QB league I traded Manning and Westbrook for Tomlinson and McNair (I had already secured Volek to force the trade). I've found that after about week 6 I've have a pretty good idea of what teams I want to face in the playoffs - but I rearely use SOS data because I find it to be a poorer evaluation that my own opinion since six games often can skew the results (i.e. TE scoring when 2 of the six games were against Gonzo and Gates).

 

[Spartans Rule]

As far as player evaluation, I think offensive line is an area that is badly overlooked in fantasy football. O-lines make a huge difference offensively, particularly in the running game, and are usually the culprit when a top RB busts. And yet preseason discussion of O-lines generally doesn't get very far past "Uhhh... I think Denver's line is pretty good."There is a wealth of knowledge that could be gained from studying O-lines. The question is just how to go about doing it.

 

[Da Good Da Bad an Da Ugly]

I would like to see more articles on the subject and more in depth injury specific analysis and its correlation to fantasy production and prediction of games missed in the future.

This is a interesting topic. Successfully handling injuries can be an important aspect of managing a team.Long-term injuries affect Roster Management decisions. On the downside, there are limits to the number of players a team can carry and no one wants to keep dead weight. In example, there was some talk this year among owners about whether or not it was a good idea to hold onto Todd Heap. On the upside, there are also huge opportunities presented by injuries. The injury-related successes of QBs and RBs like Collins, Volek, Blaylock, L. Johnson, Goings, Droughns, Bell, McGahee, Bettis, C. Taylor and M. Moore come to mind.Short-term injuries affect Lineup Selection decisions. No one wants to get a zero out of a player and coaches are increasingly less forthcoming about a player's real status. In example, there are many of us struggling to figure out how Fred Taylor's sprained MCL will affect his ability to start and or perform.I've added it to my list.

Another thing to factor in would be the likely hood that injury begets injury. We all have our opinions about injury prone players, but a definative statistical analysis of of a players being reinjured after incuring specific injuries i.e. acl tear, mcl tear, groin, turf toe e.t.c. would be of much use ranking players for the draft as well as trading. I know personally that there were a few players I avoided during the draft (S. Davis, Galloway, Travis Henry etc)based on their past injury history which for me translated into them being likely to be reinjured during the course of play this year.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Another thing to factor in would be the likely hood that injury begets injury. We all have our opinions about injury prone players, but a definative statistical analysis of of a players being reinjured after incuring specific injuries i.e. acl tear, mcl tear, groin, turf toe e.t.c. would be of much use ranking players for the draft as well as trading. I know personally that there were a few players I avoided during the draft (S. Davis, Galloway, Travis Henry etc)based on their past injury history which for me translated into them being likely to be reinjured during the course of play this year.

I think a lot of times perceived injury risk and actual injury risk are very far apart. Having some concrete numbers would be very telling.I think I remember reading something by Doug Drinen on this subject.

 

[Buckna]

7. Selecting free agents of potential value to anticipated playoff opponents like key back up QBs or RBs.

Some great stuff in here and I would like to speak to #7 on your list here giving an excellent example of shrewd strategy by a friend of mine:After knocking me out in the 1st round of the playoff's, this first year fantasy footballer was facing a touch matchup of the number 1 seed in our league to see who would go to the SuperBowl. Our #1 seed had been starting a trio of RB's of Warrick Dunn, Duece, and Chester Taylor but news had just come out in this week that Jamal Lewis would be returning to the starting lineup. By some miracle, Larry Johnson was still available on our waiver wire (we have to bid for free agent pickups and most of the owners are fairly cheap). He would of been quite the pickup for our #1 seed if no one else bid on the player because of the lack of quality backups on her team. So what does my friend do?He keeps upping whatever bid the top seed makes until he finally offers $60 for the player and the other team concedes! (And this is in a league where the entry fee is $100 and $35 had been the highest waiver wire bid ever!) My astute friend knew that the other team would be forced to start one of her scrub wide receivers that had a very low probability of posting significant points. In addition, he was able to plug Larry Johnson in place of Ahman Green who had a tough matchup and who's health had been ailing. The result was a 17 point swing from the opposing team to his team resulting in him winning his matchup. if he had not paid up for LJ, he would of lost by a few points.By securing Larry Johnson, even with a large amount of money spent, he greatly increased his chances of winning that particular head to head game and went from a possible 3rd place win with 10% of the pot to at least a guaranteed 2nd place and 30% of the pot, the difference of which was much more than $60.

 

[Family Matters]

Another thing to factor in would be the likely hood that injury begets injury. We all have our opinions about injury prone players, but a definative statistical analysis of of a players being reinjured after incuring specific injuries i.e. acl tear, mcl tear, groin, turf toe e.t.c. would be of much use ranking players for the draft as well as trading. I know personally that there were a few players I avoided during the draft (S. Davis, Galloway, Travis Henry etc)based on their past injury history which for me translated into them being likely to be reinjured during the course of play this year.

I think a lot of times perceived injury risk and actual injury risk are very far apart. Having some concrete numbers would be very telling.I think I remember reading something by Doug Drinen on this subject.

Wanted to add what seems to happen to me every year. I will handcuff RB's to protect against not only injury but performance issues. In 1 league, I had the following handcuffs:Faulk-Jackson. Obviuos reasons.Holmes-Blaylock.Griffin-Bell. At the time of the draft this made sense as Griffin had questions and most thought Bell was going to be the guy.Well, as you can see, none of these players was available week 15/16. 3 good RB situations, 6 RB's and yet not 1 was available to play in my playoffs.Anyone else have this happen to them?Is there anything to the scenario thst when 1 RB gets injured the back up gets injured as well? I had this happen with Faulk 2 years ago when Gordon and Harris played.

 

[Tbone]

Mods, it would be nice to see this pinned so it could evolve through next spring, and as it does the original post could create a summary or an outline of the good ideas that come from this discussion.I'm convinced that as competition goes up from the ease of information gathering on the internet, the draft itself will be of less importance, and what teams do during the season (things that are "outside of the box") will be what makes the difference.

 

[Da Good Da Bad an Da Ugly]

Another thing to factor in would be the likely hood that injury begets injury. We all have our opinions about injury prone players, but a definative statistical analysis of  of a players being reinjured after incuring specific injuries i.e. acl tear, mcl tear, groin, turf toe  e.t.c. would be of much use ranking players for the draft as well as trading. I know personally that there were a few players I avoided during the draft (S. Davis, Galloway, Travis Henry etc)based on their past injury history which for me translated into them being likely to be reinjured during the course of play this year.

I think a lot of times perceived injury risk and actual injury risk are very far apart. Having some concrete numbers would be very telling.I think I remember reading something by Doug Drinen on this subject.

Wanted to add what seems to happen to me every year. I will handcuff RB's to protect against not only injury but performance issues. In 1 league, I had the following handcuffs:Faulk-Jackson. Obviuos reasons.Holmes-Blaylock.Griffin-Bell. At the time of the draft this made sense as Griffin had questions and most thought Bell was going to be the guy.Well, as you can see, none of these players was available week 15/16. 3 good RB situations, 6 RB's and yet not 1 was available to play in my playoffs.Anyone else have this happen to them?Is there anything to the scenario thst when 1 RB gets injured the back up gets injured as well? I had this happen with Faulk 2 years ago when Gordon and Harris played.

While hand cuffing a wounded duck or your stud is a sound strategy, what I'm refering to is an in depth analysis of injuries and subsequent performance as well as the odds of a player suffering a particular injury suffering an additional injury. For example, we all know that a groin pull or hammy injury seriously decreases the value of any given wide reciever for the next few games as that player under goes rehab and the healing process takes place. What I'm talking about is a long term look at the performance of a particular player with a specific injury or injuries and the corresponding drop off in production and or the likely hood that they are reinjured. I'll try and do some work ups and create a model of this concept to illustrate my ideas more coherently during the off season and post . I have a feeling that this is going to require digging up a massive amount of data and organizing it into a meanful whole. Right now I'm pretty burned out and still have two championships to go and a few playoff survivor leagues to run.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Mods, it would be nice to see this pinned so it could evolve through next spring, and as it does the original post could create a summary or an outline of the good ideas that come from this discussion.

Personally, I have no pull with the staff or moderators. There support would prove helpful. I am interested in doing an in depth analysis of some of the above "advanced strategies" during the off-season as time permits. I'm already doing some work off-line to organize some of the above topics so that I can provide very thoughtful and through posts in the future. I would like to do as BassNBrew suggested and write some articles on very specific advanced strategies from which a wide range of "thinking" owners would benefit. The expertise of hard core veterans will be invaluable to this work as I see it as very collaborative.One important area where I lack real skill is in the development of statistical data that is essential to "prove" out various theories. Anyone that has competence in this area is welcome to join the discussion with empirical data that results in better understanding what works and what doesn't work.

Another limiter I face is possessing a more than full-time job during the day, a wife and a couple of infants in the household. Most of my work is done early in the morning when there is peace and quiet in the household. In other words, the dialogue that I'm interested in moderating through various posts will be slow going. The good news is that draft day is eight months away.

If you've posted a unique idea that I haven't added above, then just point it out and I'll do my best to add it.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Ignore any non-injury pre-season news/performance.Outside of a player being definitely out for a few weeks/the season, the pre-season is nothing but hype with little substance. Ron Dayne 40 yard TD run who?

 

[LHUCKS]

Cutting Edge = Utilizing Walstreet Risk Management practices when drafting/projecting in fantasy football.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Cutting Edge = Utilizing Walstreet Risk Management practices when drafting/projecting in fantasy football.

I like this comment. It's definitely an important avenue in this discussion.Can you provide a basic outline for these risk management techniques?

 

[GregR_2]

Just going to do a brain dump of comments for the moment.

Those wanting to see a study on how games missed in the previous season tend to affect games missed in the next season should read Doug Drinen's Everybody is an Injury Risk. To give a brief summary of what I think the key points are from it, a RB who played in all 16 games last year only has a 50% chance of playing in all 16 the next year. A player who played in 8-12 games last year has a 35% chance of playing in all 16 the next year. But... the actual average number of games played is pretty close, only about a game apart. So for those mentioning they want more info on injuries, I think one good rule of thumb is to not rely on previous injury as a significant factor (unless it's an obvious ongoing condition like TD's knees).

On a more general train of thought... without a doubt the area that we could get the greatest gains would be if we could improve our predictions of player performance. This is also probably the hardest area to find improvements at. The Vegas betting line stuff is intriguing to me for predicting defenses (though I mostly play IDP leagues), and possibly offenses as well, though it won't help much in the preseason.

Drafting

I think there's a lot of misunderstanding out there when it comes to various drafting strategies and how to apply them. Misusing VBD will probably still improve most people's draft, but I still think it's misused quite a bit.

Many people focus very heavily on supply (which is all VBD looks at), and focus very little on demand, which is equally important. Dynamic VBD looks at demand, but it does so in too isolated of circumstances in most cases. You can use it to look 1 round ahead, or 2 rounds ahead, and doing so probably will help your draft. But it still doesn't necessarily give you the best answer.

To make the most out of our draft, we really need to understand what each tool shows, and what it doesn't show. We need to get an idea of how our league is going to draft. We need to be flexible and have mapped out ahead several different paths through the draft based on what opportunities are presented to us. We need to do the work in advance to know what the future implications are for each decision we make. If I pass on a RB2 in the 2nd round, how does it affect my 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc picks? Does it mean I won't go after the stud TE? Does it mean I'm going to need to rely on a WR platoon, and if so does that mean I may miss out on my sleeper RB4 pick?

I think this is the current bleeding edge of drafting, and I think the Perfect Draft articles have been a great example of combining all the various tools together.

I'll also agree with LHUCKS in a general sense that there is improvement to be had when it comes to our uncertainty estimations, both in terms of our predictions just plain being wrong (Vick, Deuce, Ahman, Taylor, Barlow, to name a few), or being wrong because of missed playing time. I suspect that because of that factor, we do a poorer job of understanding the value of a pick than we think we do. It's that line of thinking that I think leads some people to the stud WR or stud WR-QB line of drafting. I have to admit I think there's some possibility there that should be looked at, though I haven't seen anyone tackle the issue in a systematic way. All we have is anecdotal evidence from a few cases that doesn't really provide enough information to decide how much merit there is to that approach, and more importantly, when it's best to go that route, and when it's best not to.

 

[LHUCKS]

Just going to do a brain dump of comments for the moment.

Those wanting to see a study on how games missed in the previous season tend to affect games missed in the next season should read Doug Drinen's Everybody is an Injury Risk. To give a brief summary of what I think the key points are from it, a RB who played in all 16 games last year only has a 50% chance of playing in all 16 the next year. A player who played in 8-12 games last year has a 35% chance of playing in all 16 the next year. But... the actual average number of games played is pretty close, only about a game apart. So for those mentioning they want more info on injuries, I think one good rule of thumb is to not rely on previous injury as a significant factor (unless it's an obvious ongoing condition like TD's knees).

On a more general train of thought... without a doubt the area that we could get the greatest gains would be if we could improve our predictions of player performance. This is also probably the hardest area to find improvements at. The Vegas betting line stuff is intriguing to me for predicting defenses (though I mostly play IDP leagues), and possibly offenses as well, though it won't help much in the preseason.

Drafting

I think there's a lot of misunderstanding out there when it comes to various drafting strategies and how to apply them. Misusing VBD will probably still improve most people's draft, but I still think it's misused quite a bit.

Many people focus very heavily on supply (which is all VBD looks at), and focus very little on demand, which is equally important. Dynamic VBD looks at demand, but it does so in too isolated of circumstances in most cases. You can use it to look 1 round ahead, or 2 rounds ahead, and doing so probably will help your draft. But it still doesn't necessarily give you the best answer.

To make the most out of our draft, we really need to understand what each shows, and what it doesn't show. We need to get an idea of how our league is going to draft. We need to be flexible and have mapped out ahead several different paths through the draft based on what opportunities are presented to us. We need to do the work in advance to know what the future implications are for each decision we make. If I pass on a RB2 in the 2nd round, how does it affect my 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc picks? Does it mean I won't go after the stud TE? Does it mean I'm going to need to rely on a WR platoon, and if so does that mean I may miss out on my sleeper RB4 pick?

I think this is the current bleeding edge of drafting, and I think the Perfect Draft articles have been a great example of combining all the various tools together.

I'll also agree with LHUCKS in a general sense that there is improvement to be had when it comes to our uncertainty estimations, both in terms of our predictions just plain being wrong (Vick, Deuce, Ahman, Taylor, Barlow, to name a few), or being wrong because of missed playing time. I suspect that because of that factor, we do a poorer job of understanding the value of a pick than we think we do. It's that line of thinking that I think leads some people to the stud WR or stud WR-QB line of drafting. I have to admit I think there's some possibility there that should be looked at, though I haven't seen anyone tackle the issue in a systematic way. All we have is anecdotal evidence from a few cases that doesn't really provide enough information to decide how much merit there is to that approach, and more importantly, when it's best to go that route, and when it's best not to.

GregR is one of the best minds in ff bar none.Listen to what he says

 

[LHUCKS]

Cutting Edge = Utilizing Walstreet Risk Management practices when drafting/projecting in fantasy football.

I like this comment. It's definitely an important avenue in this discussion.Can you provide a basic outline for these risk management techniques?

It is a work in progress and would need to be tailored to the specific league's structure and tendencies.(For example Survivor Risk Management and H2H Risk Managment differ greatly) Although I believe my theories are correct, I'm compiling data to back them up before I present it to publishers. As a former risk management consultant(Arthur Andersen/Accenture) I can tell you that the practices/philosophies are very applicable. Trust me, If Walstreet can build models to predict market movement, NFL statistics can be forecasted with an iota of the effort. Of course no forecasting model is ever 100% correct(or even close), but ff (like the market) is a game of percentages and margins.That being said, FF is a mixture of art and science and because of this it is impossible to create an all encompassing tool that will ensure the "perfect draft." An example of art is watching a player like Kevin Jones in college and having that gut instinct that tells you this kid is an NFL Pro-Bowl Caliber RB)...you can't quantify that.(pats self on the back)It is human nature to try to simplify complex systems in order to better understand them, but when competing at the highest level in ff that same attempt at simplification can very well be your downfall.(IMHO)

 

[Jayrok]

nice topic.. Luck plays a major role in FFB as we all know. Two of the last 3 seasons in my main league at least one playoff team made less than 3 total transactions. This basically means he got through the season with virtually zero injuries to key players. Two years ago he drafted P. Price and Dunn and it worked out great for him.. this year it was Curtis Martin and Delhomme. These guys weren't really projected the kind of year they had. Bye weeks aren't that important really as opposed to the playoff matchups (week 14-16). As we all know, apart from Drafting wisely (and luckily), the season is won on who you pick up or trade for (often late in the season). Although I made the playoffs, my season went south with my 2nd and 3rd picks (M. Bennett and C. Brown). I didn't know it at the time, but it turned out that way. I picked up Blaylock as soon as I heard Priest went down.. little did I know that Larry Johnson would turn out to be the better pick. At the time, Blaylock was clearly the starter. Same with McGahee, Droughns, etc.. These are the players you have to try and locate during the beginning of the stretch weeks (9-13/14). Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, L. Johnson, Volek, Drew Bennett.. It's next to impossible to know who will emerge and have great games during your playoffs. But perhaps you can look at matchups and how the NFL team is doing to help you. I mean, Detroit we knew wasn't going to the playoffs so it is a safe bet that their #1 RB will be in there the whole game. LT is normally in this category. Weeks 15 and 16 are usually played very well by him as he is rolling up his annual numbers.. but who knew the Bolts would clinch the division. Luckily for LT owners, they were playing for something against the Colts.. else he might have sat week 16.. Hell, it's a crap shoot really.. You draft the best you can and set your team up with the best players you can and hope they have good games when you need them. In one head to head league this year, the SB winner was a guy that went 4-9 in the regular season. He shouldn't have even been in the playoffs, but he picked up a couple of gems later in the year and rode them home. Got hot at the right time.I like H2H leagues but I'd like to get in a league with all sharks where you play your whole roster (including bench) each week and accumulative points and the most points at the end wins. That would take a lot of the "luck" weekend matchups out of the picture.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I think it is a misnomer to believe that titles are won or lost soley based on either by a good draft or by working the wavier wire or by any other single factor. There are many comments on these boards that state championships are won on draft day or lost on draft day, etcetera.My view is that all decisions fall under just four broad categories. (There are many, many dynamics to consider in each one.) Just try and think of something that doesn't fit in one of them. 1. Player Evaluation2. Draft Strategy3. Lineup Selection4. Roster ManagementIt is also my view that elite owners attempt to improve their odds of winning by making better decisions in each of these categories. Better decision making is achieved by a combination improving one's understanding of the dynamics in each category and staying tuned to the countless newsworthy events happening in the NFL.Therefore, it stands to reason that improved decision making in all four categories and being knowledgable about current events is the most powerful recipe for consistent and long-term success.

 

[tietzjd]

I think it is a misnomer to believe that titles are won or lost soley based on either by a good draft or by working the wavier wire or by any other single factor. There are many comments on these boards that state championships are won on draft day or lost on draft day, etcetera.My view is that all decisions fall under just four broad categories. (There are many, many dynamics to consider in each one.) Just try and think of something that doesn't fit in one of them. 1. Player Evaluation2. Draft Strategy3. Lineup Selection4. Roster ManagementIt is also my view that elite owners attempt to improve their odds of winning by making better decisions in each of these categories. Better decision making is achieved by a combination improving one's understanding of the dynamics in each category and staying tuned to the countless newsworthy events happening in the NFL.Therefore, it stands to reason that improved decision making in all four categories and being knowledgable about current events is the most powerful recipe for consistent and long-term success.

IF you play H2H Schedule is big factor in how your season will go. This year in my Div I end up with # 1 and #2 scoring team in my Div. So I played them twice and played everyone Else when they where hot. I was 4th in scoring but 1st in points allowed. Went to the playoffs with sub .500 recored and still managed 3rd place finish (Bulger almost complete the comeback for the other team last night. Team that #3 in scoring and won other Div).Side note. I beat #2 scoring team in 1st round but lost #1 scoring team in the 2nd round who then got killed buy 3rd place in other div and 5th in scoring in SFB. So honestly draft well, look for good pickups and hopefully you will get a little lucky and win.

 

[LHUCKS]

Side note. I beat #2 scoring team in 1st round but lost #1 scoring team in the 2nd round who then got killed buy 3rd place in other div and 5th in scoring in SFB. So honestly draft well, look for good pickups and hopefully you will get a little lucky and win.

Did you lose to a Culpepper-lead team in the playoffs?His playoff season's eruption was very predictable and my point is this...you can't blame luck unless you've truly pursued every avenue of ff analysis.FF is only 100% "luck" when all the competitors are equally skilled...which is hardly ever the case.

 

[The Ref]

It's that line of thinking that I think leads some people to the stud WR or stud WR-QB line of drafting. I have to admit I think there's some possibility there that should be looked at, though I haven't seen anyone tackle the issue in a systematic way. All we have is anecdotal evidence from a few cases that doesn't really provide enough information to decide how much merit there is to that approach, and more importantly, when it's best to go that route, and when it's best not to.

I think this is where there will be the most discussion this off-season. It's been a very strange year for FF in this regard - and I look forward to running some ##'s in the off-season. At first glance, the Gap between the Top QB's and the ~#12QB is growing. The Gap between The Top RB's and #24RB is shrinking. The same can be said about #1TE and #12TE. The Gap in WR remains about the same and have a higher degree of variability then ever.If (and I do mean if) these statements hold to be true and are forecasted into the 2005 season - One can speculate that more Top QB's will be taken early, and even though RB's will still dominate the first few rounds, Top QB's will be where the value is. I would also speculate that TE will go later then ever to winning teams.

 

[LHUCKS]

I think this is where there will be the most discussion this off-season. It's been a very strange year for FF in this regard - and I look forward to running some ##'s in the off-season. At first glance, the Gap between the Top QB's and the ~#12QB is growing. The Gap between The Top RB's and #24RB is shrinking. The same can be said about #1TE and #12TE. The Gap in WR remains about the same and have a higher degree of variability then ever.If (and I do mean if) these statements hold to be true and are forecasted into the 2005 season - One can speculate that more Top QB's will be taken early, and even though RB's will still dominate the first few rounds, Top QB's will be where the value is. I would also speculate that TE will go later then ever to winning teams.

Agree with everything except for the TE statement. Gates/Gonzalez/Heap will be taken early and may be considered value depending on the league/draft.I see no reason why any of them will present abnormal risk next year. Maybe Gates with a different QB/Regression to the mean a bit. But overall this group should be relatively risk averse.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

The natural odds winning a league of equals is as follows.

8 team = 12.5%

10 team = 10.0%

12 team = 8.3%

14 team = 7.1%

16 team = 6.3%

Of course, this assumes all teams win about 50% of their games on average.

My experience is that over 10 seasons I've won at a 70% clip and by doing so I have won about 50% of the titles. Obviously this is a very small sample size. I could have lost any number of those finales but I was also pretty close to winning at least two more titles than I did. (The money leagues I where play in are reasonably competitive for those that think my competition is merely soft.) I should also not that another quality owner won three of the four other titles.

My point is that every little improvement in winning percentage over time can have a dramatic effect on long-term results.

 

[beefcake]

Heh. Well there's a lot.LOTS.And like football, sometimes someone comes along with a brand new strategy that just blows you away.I'll tell you ones I like though;1. player analysis -- everyone does this. kinda boring but important2. research and updates -- did he get injured? sitting? starting? etc.3. waiver wire mgmt. -- sometimes u can find a good one. One for certain I passed up was 2 years ago when James got injured and I neglected to get Rhodes and he went on for 1000 yards.4. schedule management --when we switched to our new league system, the comish let us pick our own slots so I checkout out the schedule and maximized playing against chronic losers.[this was my secret til our league expanded and the comish reseeded all the teams]5. roster management --running back handcuffs and those spare/fringe WRs like Tyrone Calico or Peerless Price (two years ago)... unknowns who may explode.

 

[LHUCKS]

The natural odds winning a league of equals is as follows.8 team = 12.5%10 team = 10.0%12 team = 8.3%14 team = 7.1%16 team = 6.3%Of course, this assumes all teams win about 50% of their games on average.My experience is that over 10 seasons I've won at a 70% clip and by doing so I have won about 50% of the titles. Obviously this is a very sample size. I could have lost any number of those finales but I was also pretty close to winning at least two more titles than I did. (The money leagues I where play in are reasonably competitive for those that think my competition is merely soft.) I should also not that another quality owner won three of the four other titles.My point is that every little improvement in winning percentage over time can have a dramatic effect on long-term results.

AbsolutelyI've seen similar results over the past 15 years. That being said, over the past four years or so the "expert" leagues that I've participated in and/or observed didn't have quite the same consistency.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

There was an interesting study on scoring in tennis a while back that to which I wish I had a link. The study showed that by winning 51% of individual points that players won something like ~53% of their matches. When they won 52% of points they won ~55% of the match ups. When they got to like 55% of points they won like ~70% of matches. Although I don't know the exact numbers, the idea is that incremental improvements in performance dramatically improve total results over time.If someone has a link to the study, I'd appreciate a link to it. (I already tried Google but couldn't find it.)

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

1. player analysis -- everyone does this. kinda boring but important2. research and updates -- did he get injured? sitting? starting? etc.3. waiver wire mgmt. -- sometimes u can find a good one. One for certain I passed up was 2 years ago when James got injured and I neglected to get Rhodes and he went on for 1000 yards.4. schedule management -- when we switched to our new league system, the comish let us pick our own slots so I checkout out the schedule and maximized playing against chronic losers. [this was my secret til our league expanded and the comish reseeded all the teams]5. roster management -- running back handcuffs and those spare/fringe WRs like Tyrone Calico or Peerless Price (two years ago)... unknowns who may explode.

My translation (with all due respect) is as follows.Player Analysis is Player Evaluation.Research isn't a category onto itself as it is a part of work in all categories.Wavier Wire Management, Schedule Management and Roster Management are Roster Management.

 

[PewterFan]

The old proverb: Stay away from rookie WR's should be tossed and thrown in the trash. Look at each player's situation and go from there. I won the league because of Lee Evans, and to a less degree, Kerry Colbert. This isn't science though as Reggie Williams was in a perfect situation to shine, but didn't (even though I like him for next year).

At the same token, don't expect rookie QB's to come out and mimic Big Ben's success. That was an exception to the rule.

Pay more attention to kickers. They matter.

 

[jurb26]

One thing that I think should be mentioned that I didn't see (may have missed it) is understanding coaches/coaching staffs. Knowing how a team gameplans and thus uses players can be extremely important. With todays FA frenzy and constant change in address for not only players, but coaches a like this can be great information to get your hands on. One thing that will never change about FF is when talent meets opportunity you will have a star, or at least a productive player.

 

[jason12vb]

It may sound weird, but I think we are regressing back to where people's own opinions and evaluations are the only way to improve. With as much info that is on the internet with average draft position and theories I would say 90% of the fantasy addicts do the same thing because all the resources point to the same conclusion. In my opinion the only edge someone can have is doing all the research you can; looking at offensive lines, coaching stratagies, player injury histories, just plain making decisions for yourself.People rely FAR to much on lists and not enough on their own knowldege...just like those that piss and moan every week when they started player X over play Y because he was listed high on the cheetsheet. I say rank players yourself and then compare them to the consensus. . . .you may have a CMart ranked as a top 10 back but notice that the ADP is 3.5, taking him in the 2nd round is still a steal if you trust your own knowdelge. To me taking a guy a round earlier than the ADP suggests and getting him is far better than being confident that he will perfrom like a first rounder and missing out on him because you followed other peoples method.

 

[Marc Levin]

Excellent thoughts here - I am going to have to bookmark this one and read when I have time, but if this is any indication if what we'll be discussing in the offseason, I reiterate what is often said here. These boards rock starting in March.

 

[Ridgelake]

Cutting Edge =  Utilizing Walstreet Risk Management practices when drafting/projecting in fantasy football.

I like this comment. It's definitely an important avenue in this discussion.Can you provide a basic outline for these risk management techniques?

It is a work in progress and would need to be tailored to the specific league's structure and tendencies.(For example Survivor Risk Management and H2H Risk Managment differ greatly) Although I believe my theories are correct, I'm compiling data to back them up before I present it to publishers. As a former risk management consultant(Arthur Andersen/Accenture) I can tell you that the practices/philosophies are very applicable. Trust me, If Walstreet can build models to predict market movement, NFL statistics can be forecasted with an iota of the effort. Of course no forecasting model is ever 100% correct(or even close), but ff (like the market) is a game of percentages and margins.That being said, FF is a mixture of art and science and because of this it is impossible to create an all encompassing tool that will ensure the "perfect draft." An example of art is watching a player like Kevin Jones in college and having that gut instinct that tells you this kid is an NFL Pro-Bowl Caliber RB)...you can't quantify that.(pats self on the back)It is human nature to try to simplify complex systems in order to better understand them, but when competing at the highest level in ff that same attempt at simplification can very well be your downfall.(IMHO)

LHUCKS is on to a very good point here and what I think is the initial intent of the topic starter. Yes, TMT summarizes the main areas that constitute good FF, mainly hard work in the 4 main areas. But applying risk management principles to FF is an avenue that is not mainstream and it makes a ton of sense.This has been my first year in FF. This past August, I looked around at websites and settled on this one. I used the draft dominator and found it to be a great tool. But one thing that I found missing everywhere was a measure of certainty of the predictions. Lets take the top RBs as an example. Based upon my league's scoring, Priest was #1, LT was 2 in the last dominator before my draft. But given my perception that Priest was a larger injury risk, I mentally moved LT above Priest. LT was the less risky pick, and thus more valuable that high in the draft. With the next tier of RBs with Duece, Ahman, Portis, and Alexander in that order, risk was again a big factor in my ultimate rankings. Alexander had 3 or 4 consecutive seasons at about 1500 yards and 15 TDs. He was still relatively young, so injury risk was not above average. His production was much less risky that someone like Portis. Clinton was moving to a new team with a new coach with a questionable offensive line. There was substantial risk in the accuracy of his production, IMO. For these reasons, I mentally ranked Alexander 3, Ahman 4, Duece 5 and Portis 6. Again, the CERTAINTY of achieving the given stats raised Alexander above the others in my mind.I am in finance for a career and so I am familiar with some risk management theories. One of the most basic principles of finance is that RISK and RETURN are tradeoffs. The marketplace will price investments so that a perceived increase in risk is tied to a direct increase in expected return. A correllary of this theory is that for a given level of expected return, the investment with the lower risk is more valuable. But to summarize, RISK and RETURN go hand-in-hand in finance. In FF, a substantial amount of effort goes into forecasting RETURN. But I have found very little analysis about RISK. The combination of the two would truely be "Cutting Edge" and a direction that should be pursued vigorously.Now this principle only compares one investment to another. There is no question that it would be a substantial task to add a measure of risk. But thinking to the next step is what happens when multiple investments are grouped together. That leads to portfolio allocation theory. There are mathematical models that show optimal mixtures of different investment types given a desired risk/return profile. A necessary underlying part of this analysis is estimations of the expected return and volatility of the assets under consideration. Given those estimations, an optimal portfolio that maximizes return while minimizing risk can be formulated. These ideas have a whole lot of correlation to FF. A FF team is basically a portfolio of players. I would think that some of our more statsticly inclined members could run some analyses on some of the strategies identified in TMT's initial post.But exactly what those analyses are is what needs to be figured out. I'll try to think about some reasonable ways to do this. LHUCKS, if you have some ideas, I would love to hear them.Regards

 

[LHUCKS]

RISK and RETURN go hand-in-hand in finance.In FF, a substantial amount of effort goes into forecasting RETURN. But I have found very little analysis about RISK. The combination of the two would truely be "Cutting Edge" and a direction that should be pursued vigorously.

Ding Ding DingYou're certainly on the right track...in terms of maximizing return with the least amount of risk. That is the key.That being said, the ability to quantify risk and return is what seperates the men from the boys.

 

[LHUCKS]

The old proverb: Stay away from rookie WR's should be tossed and thrown in the trash. Look at each player's situation and go from there. I won the league because of Lee Evans, and to a less degree, Kerry Colbert. This isn't science though as Reggie Williams was in a perfect situation to shine, but didn't (even though I like him for next year).

I agreee and disagree. In general it is best to not put a lot of stock in rookie WRs, but that doesn't mean one should strictly adhere to a blanket maxim either. Every player should be evaluated seperately. It just happens to be truth as a result of those individual evaluations that more often than not a rookie WR is not a wise pick in most situations.Colbert put up numbers because Steve Smith got injured, he was not on my radar in most leagues until Smith went down.

Evans on the other hand was on my players to lookout for list.

Both had talent, Colbert initially appeared to lack the opportunity.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

The old proverb: Stay away from rookie WR's should be tossed and thrown in the trash. Look at each player's situation and go from there. I won the league because of Lee Evans, and to a less degree, Kerry Colbert.

Yes it should. Maybe it should be amended to "stay away from rookie WRs that have a high ADP". High Risk = 5th/6th round pick.

Low Reward = on average 80 FP scored for rookie WRs the last 10 years

When was the last time the top rated rookie WRs finished as the top rookie WRs? This year Colbert, Clayton and Evans finished ahead of Roy and Fitz (I think all 3 did). All 3 of the top finishing rookies could've been had in the last rounds of the draft. While people were reaching for Roy and Fitz because they were more generally liked by the average FFer.

Another thing about rookie WRs... This is the first time I think ever that there have been back to back 1,000 yard rookie WRs. Trend or speedbump? I see a lot of FFers overreaching for rookie WRs (again) next year because it's been two years in a row we've had several do well. Time to do some extra homework on the ones that AREN'T going in round 6 and stock up on the vets that fall every year like Bruce, Muhammad, Rod and Jimmy Smith.

 

[Harald]

Bye weeks aren't that important really as opposed to the playoff matchups (week 14-16).

I agree to an extent though quality of defenses vary much from year to year. Falcons for instance were outright bad last year and have been one of the toughest this year (after having been good two years ago). 'Hawks looked to be a great DST this season but injuries killed them. But only times I look at the playoff matchups are when selecting players from the same tier. A stud is usually more studly agaisnt a strong D than a not-so-studly-stud against a weaker one. After having done my projections I set the players in tiers. Then I individually rank the players within the same tier based upon playoffs. I don't really bother about bye weeks.