Let the projections begin... (1 Viewer)

[bigmiiiiike]

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/ap...argers-changes/

I know their YPC was down last year, but I think it would be conservative to say Mathews will average 4 YPC. That puts him at 1000 yards rushing plus whatever he gets out of his receptions. I think in the SD offense, any bellcow is a lock for 10+ TDs. Not bad for a rookie year...

 

[Jason Wood]

Before I heard Norv's declaration, I had already done my first set of projections for the site. This is what I had Ryan at as of last night:

250 carries

1,055 yards (4.2)

10 TDs

23 receptions

165 receiving yards

0 receiving TDs

RB15 in non-PPR

RB19 in PPR

Now I had assumed Sproles would catch a boatload of passes.

One word of caution with Norv, this time last year he said he saw no reason why LaDainian couldn't challenge for the rushing title again. And we know how that turned out.

 

[Gr00vus]

Well LaDainian was getting almost 16 carries a game (15.93) - which projected out for 16 games puts you at around 255 carries for the year. I figure that's a pretty solid estimate to start with for Matthews.

Now consider that the minimal utility of those 2009 carries themselves had an affect on the resulting number of carries as the subsequent down and distance situations led to more mandatory passing plays. If you think Matthews can significantly improve on the 2009 3.3 ypc for those carries, you'd also have to think that will result in more carries as the Chargers will not be forced into as many mandatory passing situations.

If he can, Norv really does like to run the football.

 

[LawFitz]

Norv Turner has been really good with fantasy RBs in the past. I see no reason for that to change now.

275 carries 4.2 YPC = 1155 yds

45 receptions 6.5 YPC = 293 yds

13 total TDs

This guy should go way early even in redraft simply b/c of the situation he's fallen into.

 

[jurb26]

Mathews is a lock for 250+ carries so long as he remains healthy. I don't see him coming all that close to 40 receptions though. Sproles is just too good in that role. At this moment, I'd project Mathews to have 270 carries and 25 receptions.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

For right now, I've got him at:

224 carries for 933 yards and 7 TDs.

21 receptions for 160 yards and 1 TD.

That's 60% of the Chargers' RB rushes. (LT had 58% last year, but he missed a few games.)

I think I'm too low. My next draft will probably give Mathews a bump in touches.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Last year Chargers were 31st in yards (1,423) but 11th in TDs (17). Assuming offense in general stays strong then I like Matthews for 900 yards and 12 TDs.

 

[Genghis Khan]

I'd be a little careful with the ypc. True, LT was on the downside of his career, but it seems to me they had some o-line problems. The line is set up to pass protect, not for a studly running game. I'd be happy if he gets to 4.0.

 

[Aardvarks]

The Chargers O-line has down-cycled into mediocrity and has to reload and find a new chemistry. Norv Turner is a fantasy stud-RB manufacturer - one of the best - so there is intrigue here. I do have reservations about a Fresno State back, and I can't help but picture Mathews as Maroney 2.0 for some reason. Just a weird hunch. I need to see/hear more about Mathews. I actually need to see him run against starters in the preseason.

I know I haven't really made a point here. Sorry, just thinking out loud.

 

[AtomicDogg97]

Where should he go in redrafts?

 

[Tanner9919]

Before I heard Norv's declaration, I had already done my first set of projections for the site. This is what I had Ryan at as of last night:

250 carries

1,055 yards (4.2)

10 TDs

23 receptions

165 receiving yards

0 receiving TDs

RB15 in non-PPR

RB19 in PPR

Now I had assumed Sproles would catch a boatload of passes.

One word of caution with Norv, this time last year he said he saw no reason why LaDainian couldn't challenge for the rushing title again. And we know how that turned out.

well, what was he supposed to say otherwise..that LT2 is mush, a shell of his former self, a beaten up high mileage car that needs to go to the scrap heap? that's probably what he wanted to say, but of course, SD brass wouldn't like that very much.. I think the sky is the limit for Matthews - I don't believe in what Turner is saying about 250 carries, more like 300+..

315/1386/13td, 4.4 per carry avg

20 recs

betting he's easily a top 10 RB, perhaps a top 5 RB in 2010..

S-T-U-D

the fact that SD traded up from 28 or where ever they were, to #12 to select Matthews, tells you all you need to know about what Turner plans to do with this kid..

 

[Tau837]

Some potentially relevant data under Turner:

2007:

Play splits: 980 offensive plays, 515 pass plays (471 pass attempts, 20 (of 40) QB rushing attempts (assumed scrambles), 24 sacks), 465 rushing plays - 52.6%/47.4% pass/run ratio

RB carries: 440 (94.6% of team carries, not including assumed scrambles)

315 Tomlinson (71.8% of RB carries)

71 Turner

37 Sproles

13 Neal

4 Pinnock

2008:

Play splits: 924 offensive plays, 519 pass plays (478 pass attempts, 16 (of 31) QB rushing attempts (assumed scrambles), 25 sacks), 405 rushing plays - 56.2%/43.8% pass/run ratio

RB carries: 383 carries (94.6% of team carries, not including assumed scrambles)

292 Tomlinson (76.2% of RB carries)

61 Sproles

17 Hester

13 Tolbert

2009:

Play splits: 972 offensive plays, 563 pass plays (519 pass attempts, 18 (of 35) QB rushing attempts (assumed scrambles), 26 sacks), 409 rushing plays - 57.9%/42.1% pass/run ratio

RB carries: 385 RB carries (94.1% of team carries, not including assumed scrambles)

223 Tomlinson (57.9% of RB carries)

93 Sproles

25 Tolbert

23 Bennett

21 Hester

Note I counted half of the QB rushing attempts as pass plays that resulted in scrambles... not sure how valid this is... hoping it is conservative, meaning I am still underestimating scrambles and overestimating called runs to a small degree. In any event, these numbers show that the playcalling split gradually shifted from a 52.6% pass plays in 2007 to 57.9% pass plays in 2009.

Why did this happen? There are multiple reasons, including (in no particular order):

1. Decline of LT.

2. Departure of Turner, which left less effective runners behind LT.

3. Decline (and poor health) of OL.

4. Improvement of Rivers.

5. Improvement of receivers (RB, WR, and TE).

So what is the 2010 outlook?

1. LT replaced with Matthews.

2. Hopefully better OL, if only due to better health.

3. Defense could improve, but that's hard to say at this point.

4. Passing offense should still be strength of team.

I could see the ratio shifting back towards more running, but not all the way back to 2007 levels. Entering 2007:

1. Norv was in his first year as Chargers head coach, and he and the players were adjusting to each other.

2. LT was coming off one of the best RB seasons of all time.

3. Rivers had only one year of starting experience.

4. Aside from Gates and LT out of the backfield, other receiving options were below average and/or unproven.

The appropriate thing to do was to rely on the running game. Entering 2010:

1. Norv has three years on the job and he and the players are comfortable with each other and with his offense and coaching style.

2. Rivers has four years of starting experience and has emerged as one of the best QBs in the league.

3. In Jackson, Gates, Floyd, Naanee, and Sproles, the Chargers have one of the best groups of receivers in the NFL.

4. A rookie RB will lead the team in carries.

One could easily argue that the appropriate thing to do now is to continue to rely on the passing game. That said, there are a lot of obvious benefits to a balanced offense, and Norv has tended to prefer balance in the past. I'd feel comfortable predicting 55% pass plays this year and 980 plays total (equaling the highest total in Norv's tenure). That means 441 rushing attempts for the team, of which about 90% would go to the RBs... that's 415 RB carries.

In the season summaries above, LT was the workhorse RB, but he was also the veteran RB on the team. This year, the veteran is Sproles. I don't see Sproles' carries being cut substantially from last season. I realize he averaged just 3.7 ypc last year, but the year before he averaged 5.4 ypc, and for his career he averages 4.5 ypc despite last season. So I see the carries breaking down something like this:

260 Matthews (62.7% of RB carries)

95 Sproles

25 Tolbert

20 Hester

15 Other RBs

Over the past two seasons, the Chargers are second in the NFL in red zone RB carries, with 177, and they are among the league leaders in rushing TDs, with 28. If Matthews stays healthy, he should have an excellent shot at double figure TDs.

Without seeing him play, it's hard for me to go with a ypc average much higher than 4.0. So I'll predict 260/1040/10 rushing for now. I expect the other RBs, especially Sproles, to dominate the RB targets. Last season, LT had 20/154/0, and there doesn't seem to be much reason to expect a lot different from Matthews. I'll round down slightly and project 20/150/0.

So I project 1190/10 total at this point. If he stays healthy, I think that is a conservative projection, since he could earn more carries and/or get better than 4 ypc and/or get a couple more TDs given San Diego's tendency to run often and reasonably successfully at the goal line. So there is definite upside above those projections.

 

[David Yudkin]

This gets us back to the types of threads I cringe at from now until the season starts. I say this for a variety of reasons, focused mostly around the difference between people's projections.

For example, if people are projecting Matthews for 1200/10, that could be a great season and a Top 10 projection based on actual real world results. But if that person has a series of folks at 1500/12 (as some people sometimes do), then he might be ranked substantially lower (might not even be a fantasy RB2). Bottom line, an individual projection many times can be taken out of context and can often do more to muddy the waters.

In the Player Spotlight threads that should be coming down the road, some folks could list a player with 1200/10 and have them as their #10 back. Someone else could suggest 1400/12 but he could be their number #20 back (generally assuming more games played and more touches for all backs).

As for my initial thoughts on Matthews, generally speaking rookies often struggle in pass protection so he may not be in as many plays as we think he should be. I would guess they will give him 13-15 carries a game and some receptions (maybe 20). And SD seems to have migrated away from being a rushing team to a passing team.

SD's ypc has dropped from 4.9 to 4.2 to 4.1 to 3.3 in the past few years. I don't remember them upgrading their OL (I don't think they drafted any OLmen), so I would be hard pressed to suggest a major uptick in their ground game or a change in their offensive mindset.

I would guess overall 14 carries a game, 14 games played, 3.8 ypc = roughly 200 carries, 760 yards. TDs are always tough to guess so maybe 8 TD. 20 receptions for 150 yards and a TD. That would make him a borderline Top 25 RB in my scheme of things.

While that may seem low to some people, there were only 25 RB last year with 220 touches. I project much more conservatively than others and try to predict numbers to better align with what happens in real life.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Updated projections, giving Mathews 62% of the RB rushes and 26% of the RB targets. YPC of ~4.1.

234 rushes for 957 yards, 8 TDs

22 receptions for 165 yards, 1 TD

For JWB -- I've got the Chargers with 958 offensive plays, not including sacks: 540 pass attempts and 418 rush attempts.

 

[Tau837]

This gets us back to the types of threads I cringe at from now until the season starts. I say this for a variety of reasons, focused mostly around the difference between people's projections.

For example, if people are projecting Matthews for 1200/10, that could be a great season and a Top 10 projection based on actual real world results. But if that person has a series of folks at 1500/12 (as some people sometimes do), then he might be ranked substantially lower (might not even be a fantasy RB2). Bottom line, an individual projection many times can be taken out of context and can often do more to muddy the waters.

In the Player Spotlight threads that should be coming down the road, some folks could list a player with 1200/10 and have them as their #10 back. Someone else could suggest 1400/12 but he could be their number #20 back (generally assuming more games played and more touches for all backs).

As for my initial thoughts on Matthews, generally speaking rookies often struggle in pass protection so he may not be in as many plays as we think he should be. I would guess they will give him 13-15 carries a game and some receptions (maybe 20). And SD seems to have migrated away from being a rushing team to a passing team.

SD's ypc has dropped from 4.9 to 4.2 to 4.1 to 3.3 in the past few years. I don't remember them upgrading their OL (I don't think they drafted any OLmen), so I would be hard pressed to suggest a major uptick in their ground game or a change in their offensive mindset.

I would guess overall 14 carries a game, 14 games played, 3.8 ypc = roughly 200 carries, 760 yards. TDs are always tough to guess so maybe 8 TD. 20 receptions for 150 yards and a TD. That would make him a borderline Top 25 RB in my scheme of things.

While that may seem low to some people, there were only 25 RB last year with 220 touches. I project much more conservatively than others and try to predict numbers to better align with what happens in real life.

1. On the first bolded point:- Starting center Nick Hardwick got hurt in the third quarter of game 1 last season and missed 13 games.

- Hardwick's replacement, Scott Mruczkowski, had started 2 games in 4 previous seasons, and went on to start 13 games last season, at which point he got hurt and went on IR.

- Starting right guard Louis Vasquez missed 2 games due to injury. And he started 14 games as a rookie.

- Starting right tackle Jeromey Clary missed 6 games to injury.

- Reserve Brandyn Dombrowski started 8 games. Dombrowski was in his second year but had never played before last season.

That's 21 starts missed on the OL, plus 22 games started by players with no previous NFL game experience. Plus, Clary was in his third year and Mruczkowski had only 2 previous starts.

IMO the OL should easily be better given the experience gained by the young players and (hopefully) better health.

2. On the second bolded point:

While this is factually correct, it ignores context. The Chargers' offense is designed to feature a primary RB in the running game, as opposed to the RBBC approach many teams are now employing. Matthews is replacing Tomlinson. Tomlinson had 243 touches last season despite missing 3 games (including the Chargers' final game, when he had 2 carries and sat along with many other starters). Furthermore, that was by far Tomlinson's lowest total touches under Norv. In the previous season, he had 344 touches, despite the fact that he was already in decline and the Chargers ran an inordinately low number of plays (924) on the season.

Now, Tomlinson is an all time great and Matthews is an unknown on the NFL level right now. But I can't see him getting such a low number of carries. Perhaps it would be different if the second best RB on the team was someone other than Sproles, but the fact is that Sproles isn't the type of RB likely to approach 150 carries unless in emergency (e.g., Matthews lost to injury), and there is no one else.

Many teams have multiple RBs who have similar talent in the running game. Many others have a philosophy that favors RBBC. Neither of those things describes the Chargers.

 

[Tau837]

Updated projections, giving Mathews 62% of the RB rushes and 26% of the RB targets. YPC of ~4.1.234 rushes for 957 yards, 8 TDs22 receptions for 165 yards, 1 TDFor JWB -- I've got the Chargers with 958 offensive plays, not including sacks: 540 pass attempts and 418 rush attempts.

That's interesting. I assume you have Rivers with approximately 30-35 rushing attempts and the WRs with 5-10, meaning you are actually very slightly reducing the Chargers RB rushing attempts from last year.One of these days, I'm going to start a Chargers "Team Spotlight" thread so we can start talking projections in a team context. (It would be cool if we could get that kind of thread started for every team...)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

One of these days, I'm going to start a Chargers "Team Spotlight" thread so we can start talking projections in a team context. (It would be cool if we could get that kind of thread started for every team...)

I was just thinking about that. I've got a little bit of time today; I'll try to start one for each team, and then pin a post with links to each thread up top.

 

[Tau837]

One of these days, I'm going to start a Chargers "Team Spotlight" thread so we can start talking projections in a team context. (It would be cool if we could get that kind of thread started for every team...)

I was just thinking about that. I've got a little bit of time today; I'll try to start one for each team, and then pin a post with links to each thread up top.

Cool. I suggested this the past couple of years to Jason, but I gathered it was potentially too much of an extra workload as an official FBG effort. (And, admittedly, I wasn't interested enough to do it myself.) Maybe we can just turn it over to the Shark Pool. I'm sure some teams will get neglected more than others, but that's no different than Player Spotlights. And, speaking of Player Spotlights, we can keep the Team Spotlights going through the preseason, and link in the Player Spotlights as they show up (and vice versa, link to the Team Spotlights from the Player Spotlights).

 

[doowain]

Updated projections, giving Mathews 62% of the RB rushes and 26% of the RB targets. YPC of ~4.1.234 rushes for 957 yards, 8 TDs22 receptions for 165 yards, 1 TDFor JWB -- I've got the Chargers with 958 offensive plays, not including sacks: 540 pass attempts and 418 rush attempts.

Reasonable projection here.That would put him on par with the #1 drafted RB from last year (Moreno). Those numbers are nearly identical.I see this as Mathews' floor....with considerably more upside.

 

[Jason Wood]

One of these days, I'm going to start a Chargers "Team Spotlight" thread so we can start talking projections in a team context. (It would be cool if we could get that kind of thread started for every team...)

I was just thinking about that. I've got a little bit of time today; I'll try to start one for each team, and then pin a post with links to each thread up top.

MT, we'll integrate the Team Spotlights into the Player Spotlights, this will be awesome.

 

[David Yudkin]

This gets us back to the types of threads I cringe at from now until the season starts. I say this for a variety of reasons, focused mostly around the difference between people's projections.

For example, if people are projecting Matthews for 1200/10, that could be a great season and a Top 10 projection based on actual real world results. But if that person has a series of folks at 1500/12 (as some people sometimes do), then he might be ranked substantially lower (might not even be a fantasy RB2). Bottom line, an individual projection many times can be taken out of context and can often do more to muddy the waters.

In the Player Spotlight threads that should be coming down the road, some folks could list a player with 1200/10 and have them as their #10 back. Someone else could suggest 1400/12 but he could be their number #20 back (generally assuming more games played and more touches for all backs).

As for my initial thoughts on Matthews, generally speaking rookies often struggle in pass protection so he may not be in as many plays as we think he should be. I would guess they will give him 13-15 carries a game and some receptions (maybe 20). And SD seems to have migrated away from being a rushing team to a passing team.

SD's ypc has dropped from 4.9 to 4.2 to 4.1 to 3.3 in the past few years. I don't remember them upgrading their OL (I don't think they drafted any OLmen), so I would be hard pressed to suggest a major uptick in their ground game or a change in their offensive mindset.

I would guess overall 14 carries a game, 14 games played, 3.8 ypc = roughly 200 carries, 760 yards. TDs are always tough to guess so maybe 8 TD. 20 receptions for 150 yards and a TD. That would make him a borderline Top 25 RB in my scheme of things.

While that may seem low to some people, there were only 25 RB last year with 220 touches. I project much more conservatively than others and try to predict numbers to better align with what happens in real life.

1. On the first bolded point:- Starting center Nick Hardwick got hurt in the third quarter of game 1 last season and missed 13 games.

- Hardwick's replacement, Scott Mruczkowski, had started 2 games in 4 previous seasons, and went on to start 13 games last season, at which point he got hurt and went on IR.

- Starting right guard Louis Vasquez missed 2 games due to injury. And he started 14 games as a rookie.

- Starting right tackle Jeromey Clary missed 6 games to injury.

- Reserve Brandyn Dombrowski started 8 games. Dombrowski was in his second year but had never played before last season.

That's 21 starts missed on the OL, plus 22 games started by players with no previous NFL game experience. Plus, Clary was in his third year and Mruczkowski had only 2 previous starts.

IMO the OL should easily be better given the experience gained by the young players and (hopefully) better health.

2. On the second bolded point:

While this is factually correct, it ignores context. The Chargers' offense is designed to feature a primary RB in the running game, as opposed to the RBBC approach many teams are now employing. Matthews is replacing Tomlinson. Tomlinson had 243 touches last season despite missing 3 games (including the Chargers' final game, when he had 2 carries and sat along with many other starters). Furthermore, that was by far Tomlinson's lowest total touches under Norv. In the previous season, he had 344 touches, despite the fact that he was already in decline and the Chargers ran an inordinately low number of plays (924) on the season.

Now, Tomlinson is an all time great and Matthews is an unknown on the NFL level right now. But I can't see him getting such a low number of carries. Perhaps it would be different if the second best RB on the team was someone other than Sproles, but the fact is that Sproles isn't the type of RB likely to approach 150 carries unless in emergency (e.g., Matthews lost to injury), and there is no one else.

Many teams have multiple RBs who have similar talent in the running game. Many others have a philosophy that favors RBBC. Neither of those things describes the Chargers.

I'm not sure what the typical time missed is for a group of starting linemen, but my gut tells me that 21 starts may not be all that uncommon. While I agree that if the guys they have come back healthy and stay healthy, that in iteself should help the production of the running game. However, as I pointed out, the trend has been going the wrong way for SD, so I'm not sure what the baseline of production should be.I agree that some of the onus and burden has to fall on LT not being the same guy he was several years ago . . . but as most would agree I'm not sure it's wise to project a rookie to step in and produce like the old LT.

As for projections, the Bolts have averaged 405 RB rushing attempts the past 3 years with 130 per year by guys not named LT (with a high of 162 last season). Sproles averaged 5-6 carries a game last year, and thinking out loud I would guess they bump that to 8 to get more bang for their $7.3 million they are paying him this season. While I agree that he won't be used extensively, 100-120 carries would not surprise me. He's had in the 20s for carries a couple times (which won't happen unless Mathews gets hurt).

I think a lot will depend on how Mathews pass protects and if he can avoid the so called rookie wall and stay fresh all season. IMO, it's in the Chargers best interest to lighten his workload in the regular season to have him fresh for the playoffs (and maybe someday Turner will figure that out).

Certainly Mathews could get the ball more and play a bigger role that I am thinking he will, but I still think that 200-225 carries may be where he falls at least this his first year in the league. In the past 10 years, 20 guys have hit 225 carries as rookies (so an average of 2 a season). Mathews would stand a better shot seeing how he will start the season as the starter (where a few of the other guys evolved into the starting role).

Any thoughts on the passing side of the ledger? Do you see the Chargers trying to run a more balanced attack this year?

 

[Tau837]

This gets us back to the types of threads I cringe at from now until the season starts. I say this for a variety of reasons, focused mostly around the difference between people's projections.

For example, if people are projecting Matthews for 1200/10, that could be a great season and a Top 10 projection based on actual real world results. But if that person has a series of folks at 1500/12 (as some people sometimes do), then he might be ranked substantially lower (might not even be a fantasy RB2). Bottom line, an individual projection many times can be taken out of context and can often do more to muddy the waters.

In the Player Spotlight threads that should be coming down the road, some folks could list a player with 1200/10 and have them as their #10 back. Someone else could suggest 1400/12 but he could be their number #20 back (generally assuming more games played and more touches for all backs).

As for my initial thoughts on Matthews, generally speaking rookies often struggle in pass protection so he may not be in as many plays as we think he should be. I would guess they will give him 13-15 carries a game and some receptions (maybe 20). And SD seems to have migrated away from being a rushing team to a passing team.

SD's ypc has dropped from 4.9 to 4.2 to 4.1 to 3.3 in the past few years. I don't remember them upgrading their OL (I don't think they drafted any OLmen), so I would be hard pressed to suggest a major uptick in their ground game or a change in their offensive mindset.

I would guess overall 14 carries a game, 14 games played, 3.8 ypc = roughly 200 carries, 760 yards. TDs are always tough to guess so maybe 8 TD. 20 receptions for 150 yards and a TD. That would make him a borderline Top 25 RB in my scheme of things.

While that may seem low to some people, there were only 25 RB last year with 220 touches. I project much more conservatively than others and try to predict numbers to better align with what happens in real life.

1. On the first bolded point:- Starting center Nick Hardwick got hurt in the third quarter of game 1 last season and missed 13 games.

- Hardwick's replacement, Scott Mruczkowski, had started 2 games in 4 previous seasons, and went on to start 13 games last season, at which point he got hurt and went on IR.

- Starting right guard Louis Vasquez missed 2 games due to injury. And he started 14 games as a rookie.

- Starting right tackle Jeromey Clary missed 6 games to injury.

- Reserve Brandyn Dombrowski started 8 games. Dombrowski was in his second year but had never played before last season.

That's 21 starts missed on the OL, plus 22 games started by players with no previous NFL game experience. Plus, Clary was in his third year and Mruczkowski had only 2 previous starts.

IMO the OL should easily be better given the experience gained by the young players and (hopefully) better health.

2. On the second bolded point:

While this is factually correct, it ignores context. The Chargers' offense is designed to feature a primary RB in the running game, as opposed to the RBBC approach many teams are now employing. Matthews is replacing Tomlinson. Tomlinson had 243 touches last season despite missing 3 games (including the Chargers' final game, when he had 2 carries and sat along with many other starters). Furthermore, that was by far Tomlinson's lowest total touches under Norv. In the previous season, he had 344 touches, despite the fact that he was already in decline and the Chargers ran an inordinately low number of plays (924) on the season.

Now, Tomlinson is an all time great and Matthews is an unknown on the NFL level right now. But I can't see him getting such a low number of carries. Perhaps it would be different if the second best RB on the team was someone other than Sproles, but the fact is that Sproles isn't the type of RB likely to approach 150 carries unless in emergency (e.g., Matthews lost to injury), and there is no one else.

Many teams have multiple RBs who have similar talent in the running game. Many others have a philosophy that favors RBBC. Neither of those things describes the Chargers.

I'm not sure what the typical time missed is for a group of starting linemen, but my gut tells me that 21 starts may not be all that uncommon. While I agree that if the guys they have come back healthy and stay healthy, that in iteself should help the production of the running game. However, as I pointed out, the trend has been going the wrong way for SD, so I'm not sure what the baseline of production should be.I agree that some of the onus and burden has to fall on LT not being the same guy he was several years ago . . . but as most would agree I'm not sure it's wise to project a rookie to step in and produce like the old LT.

As for projections, the Bolts have averaged 405 RB rushing attempts the past 3 years with 130 per year by guys not named LT (with a high of 162 last season). Sproles averaged 5-6 carries a game last year, and thinking out loud I would guess they bump that to 8 to get more bang for their $7.3 million they are paying him this season. While I agree that he won't be used extensively, 100-120 carries would not surprise me. He's had in the 20s for carries a couple times (which won't happen unless Mathews gets hurt).

I think a lot will depend on how Mathews pass protects and if he can avoid the so called rookie wall and stay fresh all season. IMO, it's in the Chargers best interest to lighten his workload in the regular season to have him fresh for the playoffs (and maybe someday Turner will figure that out).

Certainly Mathews could get the ball more and play a bigger role that I am thinking he will, but I still think that 200-225 carries may be where he falls at least this his first year in the league. In the past 10 years, 20 guys have hit 225 carries as rookies (so an average of 2 a season). Mathews would stand a better shot seeing how he will start the season as the starter (where a few of the other guys evolved into the starting role).

Any thoughts on the passing side of the ledger? Do you see the Chargers trying to run a more balanced attack this year?

On your latest bolded item, Sproles was their franchise player last year, and LT was (hopefully) more ineffective than Matthews will be, yet Sproles only had 93 carries... and he wasn't good either. The reason you cited (franchise tag) doesn't really seem to be applicable based on last year.As for your last question, I posted in post #13 that I project 980 plays and 55% pass plays (including sacks and scrambles)... so I'm projecting 539 called pass plays and 441 called running plays. I'd assume roughly 40 sacks and scrambles, leaving 499 passing attempts... so, yes, more balanced, but not by a lot.

I'll post more in the Team Spotlight thread over the next few months.