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let's discuss a bad lineup (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bri
- Start date
Eagles defense away against a high-powered offense in a game with a high over/under. Avoid defenses that are on the road, with a high O/U and that are playing against good offenses.
A.J. Green and Jordan Matthews were both decent plays, Matthews had over 100 yards. No touchdowns unfortuantely but that's more just how things broke rather than your fault. Green had a great matchup but again, didn't have the big TD numbers.
Good start with DeMarco, unforunately Sproles and Mathews took TDs away from him, might be something to learn from going ahead. Murray also couldn't run because the Eagles got down early and had to throw a lot. Take gameflow into account.
Overall, your biggest problems stemmed from starting a lot of players who weren't playing at home and also had a defense that was playing on the road in what was tagged as the highest scoring game of the week by Vegas. Look for defenses playing at home more and have a lower O/U. Your wideout selection was sound, just need a few things to break your way in terms of TDs. Keep an eye out for WRs going against bad corners or injured cornerbacks' replacements (like Percy Harvin was this week in Buffalo).
A.J. Green and Jordan Matthews were both decent plays, Matthews had over 100 yards. No touchdowns unfortuantely but that's more just how things broke rather than your fault. Green had a great matchup but again, didn't have the big TD numbers.
Good start with DeMarco, unforunately Sproles and Mathews took TDs away from him, might be something to learn from going ahead. Murray also couldn't run because the Eagles got down early and had to throw a lot. Take gameflow into account.
Overall, your biggest problems stemmed from starting a lot of players who weren't playing at home and also had a defense that was playing on the road in what was tagged as the highest scoring game of the week by Vegas. Look for defenses playing at home more and have a lower O/U. Your wideout selection was sound, just need a few things to break your way in terms of TDs. Keep an eye out for WRs going against bad corners or injured cornerbacks' replacements (like Percy Harvin was this week in Buffalo).
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I had a worry in the back of my head, but largely ignored it. He was reasonably priced and appeared to be the #1 option in a passing attack that appeared would struggle to throw downfield due to WR issues and OL issues. But Cam is hardly the embodiment of consistency and that team seems fundamentally flawed on offense.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Who the hell is Antonio Andrews?
Bobcat10
Footballguy
I think Bri went anti-Sankey here. I think that is the biggest flaw in this lineup (pregame). Spent too much on K and D (this week, sometimes I will spend up)...and with one other change....could have found a more reliable point resource at RB.
Itchy Amos
Footballguy
IMO, the Antonio Andrews pick had this lineup at a significant disadvantage from the start. You still have to score points. Andrews seems like a guy that you'd pick off of waivers in your weekly league and stash because he could eventually have a lot of value, but for a daily game, you're just hoping for a miracle. Sankey would have to stink it up and get pulled. At that point, you'd be hoping for a good half game out of Andrews.
As far as Olsen, I didn't see it coming. He was in 1/2 of my lineups. I was hoping for tons of targets but instead the D sold out to stop him and he didn't get any looks.
As far as Olsen, I didn't see it coming. He was in 1/2 of my lineups. I was hoping for tons of targets but instead the D sold out to stop him and he didn't get any looks.
I went Andrews because he was so cheap. Yes anti-sankey and we shall see if the hammy lets him play this week. GL back for TEN in the least.
His presence afforded me another top WR.
In all these traditional drafts there'sbeen a shift toward WRs early and they do produce there so I thought I'd look for cheap RB to get a better WR corps than most. In others I used a cheap WR to have a better RB.
You don't do this with a cheapie?
Eagles were not an expensive D. You're mistaken there. Atlanta had what I felt was the worst OL.
I thought GB would light up Chicago and the K would be good there.
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Role is the single most important thing we looking for a cheap player. Barring an injury, it's very unlikely to find value at the minimum salary at RB on FD. Best case scenario is someone is underpriced in the mid-to-upper-$5000's. If a guy is only going to get 3 carries and no receptions in a game, he's completely useless.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Bri, I think you were sorta replying to me also.
We all like our cheap value players, but I never saw Andrews mentioned anywhere and the Tenn running game was never even on my radar. Very difficult to project what that team was going to do last week. There were plenty of cheap RB and WR names mentioned in the threads here and in the pay articles, many of whom reached value.
You're right about the Eagles, they were 4300. I'm getting my sites mixed up, they were in the top-ish tier on some.
Still, I would not have paid, and did not, for a kicker...and following FBG advice you could have saved 600 right there by starting McManus (iirc, Crosby was 5100). So now you'd have been up to 5100 to spend at RB. Like I said, a tweak at WR where there were plenty of values, you get yourself up to Ivory for example at 6400. Crowell, Woodhead and Abdullah were also in the 5900-6100 range.
We all like our cheap value players, but I never saw Andrews mentioned anywhere and the Tenn running game was never even on my radar. Very difficult to project what that team was going to do last week. There were plenty of cheap RB and WR names mentioned in the threads here and in the pay articles, many of whom reached value.
You're right about the Eagles, they were 4300. I'm getting my sites mixed up, they were in the top-ish tier on some.
Still, I would not have paid, and did not, for a kicker...and following FBG advice you could have saved 600 right there by starting McManus (iirc, Crosby was 5100). So now you'd have been up to 5100 to spend at RB. Like I said, a tweak at WR where there were plenty of values, you get yourself up to Ivory for example at 6400. Crowell, Woodhead and Abdullah were also in the 5900-6100 range.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
That non challenge actually flipped me from cashing all my Bradford/Matthews entries to losing them all. I didn't need all those points either, under 5pts in every loss. That was a TD.
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Itchy Amos
Footballguy
I didn't comment about the D, but I usually look for bargain D's & K's myself since they're the least dependable.
I do like to find what I consider a value pick, but for a lineup to cash, you have to avoid the wasted spot. I find it easier to get value at the WR3 position because of the ppr factor. Last week I rolled out Cunningham at RB2 on several of my lineups for three reasons: He was cheap, he was the unquestioned starter & he had a decent chance to catch some passes. If your value RB doesn't share those qualities, then he's a gamble rather than an educated guess. If you reach too deep on RB, you'll likely get a guy with 7 rushes for 30 yards & 0 TDs - then you're in real trouble.
There are certainly many ways to approach constructing your lineup, but if you have an inexpensive K, D & WR3 coupled with a mid valued QB, you should have enough for two mid to high tier RBs + two mid to high tier WRs. Its much easier to hit decent production out of your third WR spot. All you need to do is find the guy that's likely to catch 5 passes for 60 yards based upon the matchup & you should have enough to cash.
Its not so hard to cash in most of these contests that you need to go that far out on a limb.
There's many issues but spending 33-40% on WRs that got squat for points is certainly one of them
It was bad. It didn't work out.
My reasoning was Sankey stinking probably(all of 2014 for example, plus most of preseason) and if not he's the GL back so I'd probably get a TD.
I did like what I thought was one of the worst rushing Ds.
I think West, his replacement, showed I was pretty close here. Andrews was 100% scoring in preseason in GL situations. West missed 3-4 times
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
That's not an issue on the front end tho. That's just a purely outcome based analysis. You said you wanted pre-game assessment.
The key is to understand the process of choosing a team. Your WRs were good choices on the front end and no one would have questioned them on Saturday. Everyone on this board would have (and has) questioned your RB2 choice.
ODB is a monster who had a bad game. It happens. This Andrews guy had the game basically any projection system projected him to have.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Ten_ATO I appreciate your replies I'm not trying to argue but learn here.
I saw Dez with a history of struggles the first game. No preseason action. I didn't start him for DFS and I was well aware the Gmen have been thru a zillion safeties. No I didn't know he'd break his foot but he wasn't lighting it up either when he got hurt so, I felt like OK the guy needs a game to get rolling-that worked out.
Peterson hasn't played in a long time, I did figure that was risky
Cowboys lost their best CB. Last year ODB had a weak first game against the Cowboys but more than covered it with 2 TDs. He did very well the 2nd matchup.
What do you have for reasoning that isn't bad luck? That's what I'm trying to learn most of all.
Did you see Calvin? What was that?
I feel like "bad luck" is a disservice to us (I've been saying and thinking that for over a year now) and there needs to be some thought here as to what it could be with some of these studs not being studly
This is exactly how I feel.
I haven't played around to see if that means I'd have "no salary" left to spend or just how brutal it'd be to start both
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
You started this thread seeking feedback about why your lineup performed so poorly. You specifically requested "Please keep in mind this has to be in the context of before the games, not after". Your post above attributed the "issues" with your lineup to your WRs. There was nothing wrong with your WRs before the games. I don't think anyone here has said otherwise. The fact that they did poorly was nothing more than bad luck. They all projected to be top performers by most folks for a reason.
Matthews had a solid game, so we're really talking about ODB and AJ.
AJ straight-up dropped a TD pass. Had he caught it he would have had a good game. That's bad luck unless you think there was some way to know in advance that a normally sure-handed WR would drop a TD pass.
I don't know what happened with ODB, but he appeared to have a spectacular match-up against a team that lost its only competent corner from last year and should score a ton of points on offense. The game didn't play out according to that script. That's bad luck from our perspective. Maybe as we learn more there is something else going on with Eli or the Cowboys' secondary, but right now it's just bad luck.
If you had suggested your lineup before the games, I think most folks would have immediately questioned Andrews first and the Eagles DST second. I think someone might have questioned Murray only because of usage concerns -- there are lots of RBs in Philly -- but given the guy's track record using him was certainly justifiable.
What you have to avoid is engaging in assuming that just because a player underperformed projections you should have seen it coming and avoided him. I certainly won't shy away from AJ or ODB just because they didn't hit "value" this week.
Yea this isn't the reply you want but the guys you wanted were fine, but there were better values (as in projected points per $ spent).
Guys like Woodhead, Forsett, Ingram, Lamar Miller were all significantly cheaper than Murray with excellent ROI potential. If you spend big at rb you want a guy who isn't game script dependent or in a large committee like Lacy or Peterson or Charles.
ODB was a fluke. Everything you can say about Julio you can just about say about ODB. I avoided Green in lineups because Dalton probably wouldn't be required to throw that much since their opponents were weak. If Cinci plays GB or NE or another high scoring offense Green would be one of the top plays of the week. Matthews was a good call (for cash games) given the high O/U and his involvement in the offense.
Olsen was unlucky. There's no way to predict he wouldn't get 10+ looks.
And just remember there is a huge variance variable in this. Even chalk lineups miss sometimes.
Guys like Woodhead, Forsett, Ingram, Lamar Miller were all significantly cheaper than Murray with excellent ROI potential. If you spend big at rb you want a guy who isn't game script dependent or in a large committee like Lacy or Peterson or Charles.
ODB was a fluke. Everything you can say about Julio you can just about say about ODB. I avoided Green in lineups because Dalton probably wouldn't be required to throw that much since their opponents were weak. If Cinci plays GB or NE or another high scoring offense Green would be one of the top plays of the week. Matthews was a good call (for cash games) given the high O/U and his involvement in the offense.
Olsen was unlucky. There's no way to predict he wouldn't get 10+ looks.
And just remember there is a huge variance variable in this. Even chalk lineups miss sometimes.
Same here, Dez and AP killed me. Worst yet, I had James Jones in Sunday morning and swapped him later for Davante Adams.
need2know
Footballguy
Absolutely no reason for ap not to have at least 3 more points in that game. Dez got hurt so I give him a pass but he wasn't do much before that either
