From last year the gap was appreciable between $2 and $10 -- like 2-3 points in 50/50 and doubles. I think Dodds found that to be the case too. Seems like he posted something about his ROI based on contest type/entry fee and it was a steep decline @ $10.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
2014 FanDuel Cash Game Results Summarized
Heads Up, 50/50, Double Up ... So many choices. But what is the right game for you?
I did this last year with similar findings so I believe I have quite a bit of knowledge on the subject.
At the end of this post, I will post my conclusions and advice for small to large grinders.
Contest
Buyin
Entries
$ Cost
$ Win
$ Profit
Wins
Losses
ROI
Double Up
$2
134
$268
$388
$120
97
37
44.80%
Double Up
$5
255
$1,275
$1,644
$369
166
89
28.90%
Double Up
$10
220
$2,200
$2,300
$100
115
105
4.50%
Double Up
$25
123
$3,075
$3,562
$487
73
50
15.80%
Double Up
$50+
17
$1,350
$1,700
$350
11
6
25.90%
Total DU
749
$8,168
$9,594
$1,426
462
287
17.50%
Contest
Buyin
Entries
$ Cost
$ Win
$ Profit
Wins
Losses
ROI
Heads Up
$1
88
$88
$112
$24
62
26
26.80%
Heads Up
$2
481
$962
$1,105
$143
308
173
14.90%
Heads Up
$5
774
$3,870
$4,280
$410
476
298
10.60%
Heads Up
$10
761
$7,610
$8,208
$598
456
305
7.90%
Heads Up
$25
572
$14,300
$14,085
$-215
313
259
-1.50%
Heads Up
$50+
301
$15,345
$15,200
$-145
165
136
-0.90%
Total HU
2977
$42,175
$42,989
$814
1780
1197
1.90%
Contest
Buyin
Entries
$ Cost
$ Win
$ Profit
Wins
Losses
ROI
50/50
$1
1065
$1,065
$1,453
$388
807
258
36.40%
50/50
$2
1454
$2,908
$3,902
$994
1084
370
34.20%
50/50
$5
2775
$13,875
$17,129
$3,254
1906
869
23.50%
50/50
$10
2487
$24,870
$29,136
$4,266
1625
862
17.20%
50/50
$25
1751
$43,775
$48,555
$4,780
1082
669
10.90%
50/50
$50+
8
$518
$850
$332
7
1
64.10%
Total 50/50
9540
$87,011
$101,025
$14,014
6511
3029
16.10%
Totals
13266
$137,354
$153,608
$16,254
8753
4513
11.80%
Conclusions (listed in no particular order):
1.
Heads Up is a Sucker's Bet for all but the best players in the world. I have a win rate on every line item in this spreadsheet, yet I had negative ROI at $25 and above heads up. It is beatable below $10, but at levels $25 and above, you are competing against the best of the best. Personally I don't think it's worth the risk of one's bankroll to play heads up above $25. Note: All of my heads up action was me posting in the lobby. But if people click on my username, they see I have logged over 10,000 NFL wins. I am guessing, but I suspect most of the best players don't gobble up my games. For people with a lot less wins, the pros are going to eat up your action (making these results even worse). Heads up at $5 and below though does not have a lot of pro players (since FanDuel limits players to 1,000 contests for the Sunday slate of games).
2.
The easiest money is in Double Ups (contests that have 300+ entries) and 100 man 50/50s. FanDuel rakes the Double Ups at a higher percentage (since those contests are guaranteed), but I feel at 300 entries and above levels, the edge is too good to pass up on these contests even with the increased rake. The $1,2, and $5 50/50s are all played at 100 entries (and only 1 entry per person). This ensures you won't be stacked against a ton of pros and are grinders best bets to increase their bankroll consistently.
3.
Here is my recommendation for players based on NFL bankroll size:
less than $2,000 - Play just $1 50/50s and $2 Double Ups above 300 entries.
$2,001 to $5,000 - Play $1-$2 50/50s and $2-$5 Double Ups above 300 entries
$5,001 to $10,000 - Play $1 - $5 50/50s, $2-5 Double Ups (play up to 5 entries per contest) and $1 Heads Up
$10,001 to $20,000 - Play $1-$10 50/50s, $2-10 Double Ups (play 5 entries per contest) and $1-$2 Heads Up
Unless your bankroll is NORTH of $20K, you should not be playing $25+ cash games.
4.
How I get lots of Money in Play at the lowest levels
- As soon as FanDuel releases it's pricing for the week, create a dummy roster for the Thursday and All slate. Don't worry about the roster. You will change it later. Every 3-4 hours, jump in and take all of the games that match your criteria.
- Before Thursday's game, change your lineup for that game. I like to run 1-3 rosters for these games to further diversify.
Once the Thursday game passes, FanDuel will then offer Sunday only and 1 pm only games. Again create dummy lineups and start populating every 3-4 hours (games fill way faster on Saturday night - Sunday morning). You can check to make sure you have less than 1,000 entries for a slate here:
Entry Count
Saturday night I optimize my lineups and usually have 2-3 variations per unique time slot. Once the games start in the morning, you can also enter 4pm and late (4pm, SNF, MNF) contests.
It's a lot of work playing DFS this way, but it's the BEST way IMO to minimize one's risk while attempting to grow your bankroll. My entire chart shows I put $137K in cash game play in 13 weeks (just over $10K a week), but if I would have eliminated the $25+ games (and played heads up just between $1 and $10), I could have risked $51,381 (about $4,000 per week) to turn a $10,068 profit (19.6% ROI).