Fanduel Week 9 (1 Viewer)

[sooted72]

One thing is for sure, across the board the competition is better, and having a goal of 120pts a week just isn't cutting it anymore.  Seems like you have to be consistently hitting about 130-135 to be fairly safe most weeks. 

i meant to make this post a few weeks back.  i forget when it was but that super chalky week with evans/julio/quizz.  i was in a bunch of $1 and $2 100-man 50/50s and it was unreal the high ownership on those guys.  like you would expect quizz to be 80% owned or whatever in like $25 contests but the fact that everyone pretty much had the same lineup as me in the lowest stakes on the site was a bit disturbing.

now im not sure that your first point necessarily leads to your second, but that a discussion for another day i suppose.

 

[NixonMask]

Im not sure that the 120 line is the issue so much as that people are still getting better at getting to the info and the sites have had pricing issues that have resulted in very predictive cash lineups.  Those weeks the lineups have hit more than not, but last week when the chalk collapsed the lines were ridiculously low.  Everyone is on the same guys which is making for a alot more variance in the lines this year IMO.  The sites need to do a better job at pricing, forget the algorithms, if theres rumors a guy may be hurt then manually alter his backups price up.  And then this week coming up.  Are they kidding with this Roethlisberger price?  I get it, he didnt have a great game and is coming off an injury.  Now he gets another week off, is home, and is playing a weaker opponent.  Will I have 100% exposure to Ben?  Yes.  Do I want to?  No.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Also Tennessee, start teaching me some Basketball, this is my first year trying it and I need all the help I can get. lol

The best advice I can give you on hoops is to throw MikeMan $10-15 a month for full access to his work. Top-notch stuff. I'll PM you the link to his site. 

 

[sooted72]

yeah the pricing could definitely be the cause of the chalk.  lets hope so at least.  good post.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Im not sure that the 120 line is the issue so much as that people are still getting better at getting to the info and the sites have had pricing issues that have resulted in very predictive cash lineups.  Those weeks the lineups have hit more than not, but last week when the chalk collapsed the lines were ridiculously low.  Everyone is on the same guys which is making for a alot more variance in the lines this year IMO.  The sites need to do a better job at pricing, forget the algorithms, if theres rumors a guy may be hurt then manually alter his backups price up.  And then this week coming up.  Are they kidding with this Roethlisberger price?  I get it, he didnt have a great game and is coming off an injury.  Now he gets another week off, is home, and is playing a weaker opponent.  Will I have 100% exposure to Ben?  Yes.  Do I want to?  No.

Yeah, pricing is soft this year. I've left $800+ in salary on the table a ton this year. Was $1200 light last week and it cashed. That's one of the reasons I've been less than excited about cheapy sucky guys with good matchups this year. I haven't played Fantasy Aces in NFL, but in MLB they were MUCH tighter with pricing. 

 

[Megla]

The best advice I can give you on hoops is to throw MikeMan $10-15 a month for full access to his work. Top-notch stuff. I'll PM you the link to his site. 

So is Mikes info worth the monthly cost?

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

So is Mikes info worth the monthly cost?

Easy. 

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Now I have to go watch MNF b/c I need 7 out of Prosise in a 0 ppc league that rounds down. I'm sensing 38 yards receiving and 27 yards rushing for 5 points and me staying up way past my bedtime on a work night to watch me lose. Stupid byes and concussion protocol. 

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

For those of you keeping track of such things -- the NBA record for turnovers in a game is 12 by James Harden. He's got 6 at half tonight. 

On my team of course. 

 

[Galileo]

yes we need apples to apples comparisons here.

people please post the cash lines in your $1 and $2 100-man 50/50s so we can compare.

I did not play any $1 games, but here are my $2 - 100 man 50/50s for week 9 - all main slate:

120.78, 123.18, 123.52, 123.98, 124.08, 124.18, 125.18, 125.28, 125.48, 127.00, 127.78, 127.78, 127.98, 129.68

 

[Crash and Walk Away]

The cash line for the Week 9 Sun NFL BIG $2 Double Up (Top 22,500 Win) was 128.18

 

[Raging weasel]

I did not play any $1 games, but here are my $2 - 100 man 50/50s for week 9 - all main slate:

120.78, 123.18, 123.52, 123.98, 124.08, 124.18, 125.18, 125.28, 125.48, 127.00, 127.78, 127.78, 127.98, 129.68

cash lines for my main slate $2 50/50      119.88, 126.18

 

[Raging weasel]

I used him in a thurs-mon oakheart. probably not going to cash as I sit at 123.16 ( with graham,haushka,seatD to play) and current cash line is 139.26. he was .6% owned on 29411 entries

At halftime I'm at 154.56 and winning $4-got to go to bed so hope it holds up but it didn't hurt playing Holton as this was my highest scoringlineup

 

[finger11]

With Graham going HAM I've had the biggest week of my 4 year DFS career.  (Good since last week was my biggest loss).

I had Graham in my Holton lineup and ended up playing in only $29 worth of contests with particular lineup returning $114.

 

[Raging weasel]

With Graham going HAM I've had the biggest week of my 4 year DFS career.  (Good since last week was my biggest loss).

I had Graham in my Holton lineup and ended up playing in only $29 worth of contests with particular lineup returning $114.

nice! I also had Graham in my Holton lineup-scored164.46 and cashed $5 in the oakheart. Won 4/5 contests this week $8 in and $17.20 out.

 

[KarmaPolice]

nice! I also had Graham in my Holton lineup-scored164.46 and cashed $5 in the oakheart. Won 4/5 contests this week $8 in and $17.20 out.

It was bitter sweet - I cashed for $3 in the squib b/c of Graham, but because the game had some production, the 5x line I was ahead of at the start of the game caught up to me and I ended up missing that by less than a point.  Still came out +$84 for the week, so more than happy to spread the winnings around. 

 

[podunker]

I lost $12 on the week total. My cash game scores were not bad, 130, 128, 122, but just missed out barely. The 128 score almost broke even. The 130 score was on the Thur/Mon slate and almost got blanked, which was a surprise. My GPP's really saved me from big losses. I almost tripled my money in those. All in all, I will take it. 

Each of my cash LU's had one at least one guy that busted. The Thur/Mon LU had Booker, then Sanders and Pitta in the other two. Most of the players actually made at least 2x value. 

Like we have talked about, with the cutoffs getting higher, you need at least half the LU to get 3x value to be safe. I think your QB,  1 RB, 1 WR need to get 3x, and then you have to have someone else make it to be safe. 

On to week 10!

 

[sooted72]

I did not play any $1 games, but here are my $2 - 100 man 50/50s for week 9 - all main slate:

120.78, 123.18, 123.52, 123.98, 124.08, 124.18, 125.18, 125.28, 125.48, 127.00, 127.78, 127.78, 127.98, 129.68

heh seems higher than my random sampling of $5 games.

so yeah im pretty sure theres no difference between $1-$2-$5 100-man contests.  if we really went ham and got tons of results where it was statistically significant id imagine wed notice something like a half a point from $1-$2 and maybe like another 3/4 a point increase from $2-$5.

 

[Megla]

this is interesting bc ive found the cut lines to be roughly the same between $1-$2-$5 on the 100-man 50/50s.  i mean common sense dictates that the lower the buyin the lower the cutline for obvious reasons but idk i feel like theyre almost always super close.  how much different have yours been?

I was comparing the $1 and $2 100 player 50/50 cash lines to the high volume $2 DBL ups and while the bourbon certainly caused some exaggerations in the difference I'm pretty certain the cash line for the 50/50s is several points lower than the large DBL ups.

I've never played any $5 50/50s so I have no point of reference.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

heh seems higher than my random sampling of $5 games.

so yeah im pretty sure theres no difference between $1-$2-$5 100-man contests.  if we really went ham and got tons of results where it was statistically significant id imagine wed notice something like a half a point from $1-$2 and maybe like another 3/4 a point increase from $2-$5.

From last year the gap was appreciable between $2 and $10 -- like 2-3 points in 50/50 and doubles. I think Dodds found that to be the case too. Seems like he posted something about his ROI based on contest type/entry fee and it was a steep decline @ $10. 

 

[Megla]

From last year the gap was appreciable between $2 and $10 -- like 2-3 points in 50/50 and doubles. I think Dodds found that to be the case too. Seems like he posted something about his ROI based on contest type/entry fee and it was a steep decline @ $10. 

Wednesday, December 3, 2014







2014 FanDuel Cash Game Results Summarized




 


Heads Up, 50/50, Double Up ... So many choices. But what is the right game for you?

I did this last year with similar findings so I believe I have quite a bit of knowledge on the subject.

At the end of this post, I will post my conclusions and advice for small to large grinders.
 

Contest


Buyin


Entries


$ Cost


$ Win


$ Profit


Wins


Losses


ROI


Double Up


$2


134


$268


$388


$120


97


37


44.80%


Double Up


$5


255


$1,275


$1,644


$369


166


89


28.90%


Double Up


$10


220


$2,200


$2,300


$100


115


105


4.50%


Double Up


$25


123


$3,075


$3,562


$487


73


50


15.80%


Double Up


$50+


17


$1,350


$1,700


$350


11


6


25.90%


Total DU


 


749


$8,168


$9,594


$1,426


462


287


17.50%


Contest


Buyin


Entries


$ Cost


$ Win


$ Profit


Wins


Losses


ROI


Heads Up


$1


88


$88


$112


$24


62


26


26.80%


Heads Up


$2


481


$962


$1,105


$143


308


173


14.90%


Heads Up


$5


774


$3,870


$4,280


$410


476


298


10.60%


Heads Up


$10


761


$7,610


$8,208


$598


456


305


7.90%


Heads Up


$25


572


$14,300


$14,085


$-215


313


259


-1.50%


Heads Up


$50+


301


$15,345


$15,200


$-145


165


136


-0.90%


Total HU


 


2977


$42,175


$42,989


$814


1780


1197


1.90%


Contest


Buyin


Entries


$ Cost


$ Win


$ Profit


Wins


Losses


ROI


50/50


$1


1065


$1,065


$1,453


$388


807


258


36.40%


50/50


$2


1454


$2,908


$3,902


$994


1084


370


34.20%


50/50


$5


2775


$13,875


$17,129


$3,254


1906


869


23.50%


50/50


$10


2487


$24,870


$29,136


$4,266


1625


862


17.20%


50/50


$25


1751


$43,775


$48,555


$4,780


1082


669


10.90%


50/50


$50+


8


$518


$850


$332


7


1


64.10%


Total 50/50


 


9540


$87,011


$101,025


$14,014


6511


3029


16.10%


Totals


 


13266


$137,354


$153,608


$16,254


8753


4513


11.80%


Conclusions (listed in no particular order):

1. Heads Up is a Sucker's Bet for all but the best players in the world.  I have a win rate on every line item in this spreadsheet, yet I had negative ROI at $25 and above heads up.  It is beatable below $10, but at levels $25 and above, you are competing against the best of the best.  Personally I don't think it's worth the risk of one's bankroll to play heads up above $25.  Note:  All of my heads up action was me posting in the lobby.  But if people click on my username, they see I have logged over 10,000 NFL wins.  I am guessing, but I suspect most of the best players don't gobble up my games.  For people with a lot less wins, the pros are going to eat up your action (making these results even worse).  Heads up at $5 and below though does not have a lot of pro players (since FanDuel limits players to 1,000 contests for the Sunday slate of games).

2. The easiest money is in Double Ups (contests  that have 300+ entries) and 100 man 50/50s.  FanDuel rakes the Double Ups at a higher percentage (since those contests are guaranteed), but I feel at 300 entries and above levels, the edge is too good to pass up on these contests even with the increased rake.  The $1,2, and $5 50/50s are all played at 100 entries (and only 1 entry per person).  This ensures you won't be stacked against a ton of pros and are grinders best bets to increase their bankroll consistently.

3. Here is my recommendation for players based on NFL bankroll size:

less than $2,000 - Play just $1 50/50s and $2 Double Ups above 300 entries.
$2,001 to $5,000 - Play $1-$2 50/50s and $2-$5 Double Ups above 300 entries
$5,001 to $10,000 - Play $1 - $5 50/50s, $2-5 Double Ups (play up to 5 entries per contest) and $1 Heads Up
$10,001 to $20,000 - Play $1-$10 50/50s, $2-10 Double Ups (play 5 entries per contest) and $1-$2 Heads Up

Unless your bankroll is NORTH of $20K, you should not be playing $25+ cash games.  

4. How I get lots of Money in Play at the lowest levels

- As soon as FanDuel releases it's pricing for the week, create a dummy roster for the Thursday and All slate.  Don't worry about the roster.  You will change it later.  Every 3-4 hours, jump in and take all of the games that match your criteria.

- Before Thursday's game, change your lineup for that game.  I like to run 1-3 rosters for these games to further diversify.

Once the Thursday game passes, FanDuel will then offer Sunday only and 1 pm only games.  Again create dummy lineups and start populating every 3-4 hours (games fill way faster on Saturday night - Sunday morning).  You can check to make sure you have less than 1,000 entries for a slate here:

Entry Count

Saturday night I optimize my lineups and usually have 2-3 variations per unique time slot.  Once the games start in the morning, you can also enter 4pm and late (4pm, SNF, MNF) contests.

It's a lot of work playing DFS this way, but it's the BEST way IMO to minimize one's risk while attempting to grow your bankroll.  My entire chart shows I put $137K in cash game play in 13 weeks (just over $10K a week), but if I would have eliminated the $25+ games (and played heads up just between $1 and $10), I could have risked $51,381 (about $4,000 per week) to turn a $10,068 profit (19.6% ROI).
 

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

That's it, but from 2014. A little stale now I guess. Didn't FD further lower the NFL contests per week limit last year? I would love to see Dodds' breakdown this year. 

 

[sooted72]

i would say there is definitely a talent increase at the $5 level as i saw daut44 in my games this week lol.